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Opportuni)es across CORDEX ini)a)ves in Asia
The 2nd Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/ CORDEX Southeast Asia Workshop
Ramkhamhaeng University,
Bangkok, Thailand 9-‐10 June 2014
M. Rixen, WCRP JPS
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Mission & Objec.ves World Climate Research Programme supports climate-‐
related decision making and adapta)on planning by coordina.ng research required to improve
(1) climate predic.ons and (2) understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of prac/cal applica/ons of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-‐2015).
Includes CORDEX SAT
Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
WCRP
Proposed Research Strategy: At the simplest level, Future Earth must answer fundamental ques)ons about how and why the global environment is changing, what are likely future changes, what the implica/ons are for humans and other species, and what choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabili/es, enhance resilience, and create prosperous futures.
Future Earth
• 1st Call for proposal: Fast Track Ini.a.ves and Cluster Ac.vi.es, deadline was 4 April 2014 – needed some GEC core project umbrella • Other calls coming soon, eligibility will be less stringent • Opportuni.es for CORDEX in all regions
CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
• 2+ Petabyte on Earth System Grid Federa.on
• 59 models, 24 groups • Many studies contribu.ng to the IPCC
AR5 report • Already 250+ papers
• REASON FOR SUCCESS: common standards and protocols
Green coupled carbon-‐cycle climate models
Red matches CMIP3 experimental suite
A rich set of modeling experiments, drawn from several predecessor MIPs, focuses on model evalua.on, projec.ons, and understanding
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From Global to Regional Scale
Why do we need Regional Climate Downscaling? Global Climate Models (GCM) can provide us with predic.ons and projec.ons of how the climate of the earth will change in the future. These results are vital to inci.ng the interna.onal community to take decisions to help limit climate change. However, the impacts of a changing climate, and the adapta)on strategies to deal with them, need to be addressed at a finer, regional scale. This is where Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) has an important role to play by providing predic.ons and projec.ons with much greater detail.
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Vision for CORDEX • Ac.onable regional informa.on: models and data • Common experimental design, standards and protocols • Recognize regional peculiari.es and local ownership • Past, present, future (predic.ons and projec.ons) • Importance of assessments and valida.ons • Benefits of a mul.-‐model approach to capture uncertain.es • Transfer of uncertain.es from models to VIA applica.ons
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CORDEX Phase I experiment design
Model Evaluation Framework
Climate Projection Framework
ERA-Interim LBC 1989-2007
Multiple AOGCMs
RCP4.5, RCP8.5 1951-2100 or 1980-2050
Decadal predictions 1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035
Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa) 50 km grid spacing
Regional Analysis Regional Databanks
AMIP like
CMIP like
Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling (CORDEX)
Example of CORDEX mul)-‐model data available for Africa. From Top to boYom and leZ to right: GPCP mean July-‐August-‐September precipita)on for 1998-‐2008 and differences compared to GPCP in the other gridded observa)ons, and the individual RCMs with their ensemble average.
•14 domains with a resolution of 0.44° (approx. 50x50km²), focus on Africa •Also higher res for some domains (by some institutions)
Dynamic Malaria Model driven by climate observa)ons & CORDEX simula)ons (mean annual prevalence (%)
SMHI (50km2) reproduces well the mean annual malaria incidence pattern with respect to TRMM-ERAINT & GPCP-ERAINT control experiment Nikulin, G., et al, J. Clim, 2012 10
Earth System Grid Federa.on • JSC34-‐WMAC2: Earth System Grid Federa.on to become
WCRP main mechanism for exchanging data (climate simula.ons+observa.ons (obs4MIPs)+reanalyses(ana4MIPs)) in the next decade, including core projects
• Vision: seamless dissemina.on of climate data across .me, space and parameters
• Ini.ally CMIP limited, now new ‘early’ adopters: CORDEX, CHFP/WGSIP
• Some CORDEX archives currently not in ESGF, aim to migrate them into ESGF: Med-‐CORDEX, East-‐Asia, South-‐Asia, CCCma
CORDEX ESGF datanodes (12 May 2014) Datanode Number of
Datasets Number of CORDEX domains
esg-‐dn1.nsc.liu.se SMHI, NCS-‐LIU, Sweden
27804
AFR-‐44, ARC-‐44, EUR-‐11, EUR-‐44, MNA-‐44, MNA-‐22, NAM-‐44, SAM-‐44, WAS-‐44
cordexesg.dmi.dk DMI, Denmark
5394
AFR-‐44, ANT-‐44, EUR-‐11, EUR-‐44, NAM-‐44
carbon.dkrz.de DKRZ, Germany
3324
AFR-‐44, EUR-‐11, EUR-‐44, WAS-‐44
esgf-‐data1.ceda.ac.uk BADC, UK
1004
AFR-‐44, AUS-‐44, EUR-‐44, EAS-‐44
data.meteo.unican.es Univ. Cantabria, Spain
228
EUR-‐22, EUR-‐44
esgf.extra.cea.fr CEA, France
196
EUR-‐11, EUR-‐44
noresg.norstore.uio.no NorStore, Norway
-‐ published EUR-‐44 and EAS-‐44 earlier, not available now
• DHMZ (Croa.a), UQAM (Canada) and CNRM (France) are wai.ng at DMI (QC) • one dataset: one variable, experiment, domain, frequency • full CORDEX output for one simula.on (Core+Tier1): 235 datasets
Intercomparison Models-‐Observa.ons Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and make
available observa.onally-‐based products
Obs4MIPs
A pilot effort to improve the connec.on between data experts and scien.sts involved in climate model evalua.on. Aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM, WGNE, WDAC. NASA and the U.S. DOE have ini.ated the project with significant contribu.ons of appropriate NASA products. This is expanding to other products from other agencies. Communi.es to contribute data to Obs4MIPs such as cryosphere, biogeochemistry, etc.
obs4MIPs-‐CMIP workshop: 29 Apr – 1 May, NASA HQ
Interna.onal Conference on Regional Climate -‐ CORDEX 2013
• 4-‐7 November 2013, Brussels, Belgium • Partnership between WCRP, IPCC and EC • Timed between IPCC WGI and WGII releases • 1st day: High Level Session, Stakeholder dialogue • 2-‐4th days: Scien.fic Conference • hpp://cordex2013.wcrp-‐climate.org/ • 480+ par.cipant, 97 countries
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CORDEX Interna.onal Project Office
• Aim: support the growing needs of the CORDEX community (organiza.on, scien.fic and technical coordina.on, capacity building, etc)
• 3 significant offers received (deadline was 15 April) • Review process ongoing • Final decision by D/WCRP in consulta.on with JSC as appropriate, probably end of June
Important SAT1 ac.ons (ICTP, Trieste, Italy 16-‐17 May 2014)
• CORDEX Phase II: Update CORDEX scope, domain criteria, experimental framework (to include ‘added value’), develop flagship experiments (high-‐res), develop ESD strategy
• Data management: ESGF becomes the standard, migrate legacy data sets, streamline web info
• Develop a CORDEX “CMIP6-‐endorsed MIP”
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CMIP new structure
Why is Monsoon Asia high on WCRP’s regional agenda?
• Range of natural hazards (typhoon, floods) • Seasonal monsoon affects water and food • World's highest mountains • Heat source of Tibetan Plateau • 3.6 billion people • Anthropogenic aerosols • Rapid urbaniza.on • Vulnerable coastal development • IPCC ARs regional needs • GFCS
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Opportuni.es across CORDEX in Asia • Building on MAIRS and RMIP networks, experience • Strong exis.ng CORDEX communi.es in South-‐Asia, East-‐Asia, Australasia • Growing community and strong momentum in CORDEX Southeast-‐Asia • Cross CORDEX regions collabora.ons • Strong engagement of sponsors such as APN, ADB, etc • Science in service to society: tradi.onally well connected to applica.ons
(VIA, climate services, etc), end-‐user driven • Good mix of Na.onal Met Services, Academies, Research Ins.tutes, NGO
to address the regional issues • Opportunity to provide a strong regional contribu.on to AR6 • …
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Important SAT1 ac.ons for Southeast-‐Asia
• East-‐Asia and Southeast-‐Asia: finalize proposals for domain specifica.on for approval by SAT
• Asia: op.mize APN mee.ngs sequence between MAIRS (lead APN CORDEX SA-‐EA-‐AA project) and SEACLID/CORDEX-‐SEA APN project, in close consulta.on with APN secretariat and Geneva
• SEA: iden.fy/secure compu.ng and CORDEX ESGF node resources (e.g. explore synergies with GSDC, PKNU, Korea)
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With special thanks to all sponsors
and to Ramkhamhaeng University for hos.ng the mee.ng!
Stay tuned: hpp://wcrp-‐cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/
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