W.C. Rusty Riese, PhD

Adjunct Professor, Rice University

What are we being told?

What are the data?

What are the take-aways?

What are your responsibilities?

Mann “Hockey Stick” Curve

The Arctic is melting

Stumps have been thawing from beneath the Mendenhall Glacier for about 50 years, but recently, considerably more have been found in upright positions with roots still intact. LiveScience, 9/20/2013

Glaciers are retreating

Sea levels will rise

Coastal cities will be inundated

Tropical storms numbers and intensity will increase

Tornados will become more frequent and intense

Precipitation will increase in frequency and severity

Famines will kill millions of people

But what do the data show?

The most common reference points are 1820, 1850, or 1880

1820

Corresponds to the end of the “Little Ice Age”

If we change the reference point to the Medieval Maximum

Then we are only just recovering from the “Little Ice Age”

Average Temperature Profiles

Differ Slightly by Agency

NASA Hadley

NOAA

New Zealand Processed Data

New Zealand Raw Data

So, is the Arctic melting?

Climate Change Facts and Fictions GC.pptxClimate Change Facts and Fictions GC.pptx

Are glaciers retreating?

Archeologists from the Danish National Museum have now proven that Eric the Red, who founded the Icelandic settlement in Greenland at the end of the tenth century AD, and his contemporaries were able to brew ale* DailyNews, 1/30/2012

A barley field in Iceland. Photo by PállStefánsson

Is sealevel rising?Increases are following the 150 year trend

Have tropical storms become more frequent or intense?

Have tornados become more frequent and intense?

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_384-may-20-21-58.jpghttp://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_384-may-20-21-58.jpghttp://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_375-may-20-18-51.jpghttp://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_375-may-20-18-51.jpghttp://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_376-may-20-18-53.jpghttp://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/screenhunter_376-may-20-18-53.jpg

Has precipitation changed in intensity or severity?

So, does atmospheric CO2 really drive climate change?

5th IPCC report, January 30, 2014

Christopher Monckton, WUWT, 9/11/2013

Christopher Monckton, WUWT, 9/11/2013

Christopher Monckton, WUWT, 9/11/2013

Christopher Monckton, WUWT, 9/11/2013

Mann “Hockey Stick” Curve

What then is driving climate change?

After Svensmark reLaken et al. 2010

Image: Jo Nova

Just the Facts

Global Warming

Sea Level IncreaseHistorical rate of 0.07 inches/year not catastrophicMay go down

No more droughts or storms than normal

Ice melting is normal for interglacial periods

Just the Facts

Global Warming

CO2 Is Not The Cause of Global WarmingTemperature increases may cause CO2 increases

Solar Activity Has a Stronger Impact

Water vapor in the atmosphere demonstrates a more compelling correlation with temperature

Just the Facts

Global Warming

From mid 1800’s to 1998Temperatures increased 0.8o C

From 1998 to 2007Temperatures were flat

From 2007 to 2012Temperatures fell 0.02 to 0.03o C

“No amount of

experimentation

can ever prove me

right; a single

experiment can

prove me wrong.”

Albert Einstein

• “There has been no universal trend in the overall extent of drought across the continental U.S. since 1900.”

• “Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damagingthunderstorm winds, are uncertain.”

• “(there is) a lack of any clear trend in landfall frequencyalong the U.S. eastern and Gulf coasts”

• “When averaging over the entire contiguous U.S., there is no overall trend in flood magnitudes.”

Extra slides

“There has been no universal trend in the overall extent of drought across the continental U.S. since 1900.”

“Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain.”

“Lack of any clear trend in landfall frequency along the U.S. eastern and Gulf coasts”

“When averaging over the entire contiguous U.S., there is no overall trend in flood magnitudes.”

Actual Average Temperature Scaled in whole Degrees

Global Mean Temperatures: 1880 - 2003 John Grisham, Source; NASA

arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008

• The Arctic is melting

• Glaciers are retreating

• Sea levels will rise

• Coastal cities will be inundated

• Tropical storms numbers and intensity will increase

• Tornados will become more frequent and intense

• Precipitation will increase in frequency and severity

• Famines will kill millions of people

Greenland was Green when it was discovered in 876

Greenland Ice Disappearing

Headlines

Been There, Done That

876

Antarctic sea ice extent on September 22 compared to 1981-2010 median depicted by orange curve (NSIDC)

CET temperatures have been plummeting over the last 13 years (fall 2013 data not included). Chart by Ed Hoskins, data source: UK Met Office. - See more at: http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/12/no-warming-left-to-deny-global-cooling-takes-over-cet-annual-mean-temperature-plunges-1c-since-2000/#sthash.ZF1mvbNI.dpuf

Not Medieval Climate Crisis

Medieval Climate Optimum

Modern Climate Optimum

Why Call This A Climate Crisis?

Jan. 23, 2013 — A new study provides surprising details on changes in Earth's climate during the last warm period (120,000-128,000 years ago). Even though temperatures in Northern Greenland were 5-8 degrees Celsius higher than today, the thickness of the ice sheet was only a few hundred meters lower. And this despite the fact that sea level was 4-8 metres higher than today. Science News & Niels Bohr Institute

The Arctic seems to be warming up. Reports from fishermen,seal hunters, and explorers who sail the seas about Spitzbergenand the eastern Arctic, all point to a radical change in climaticconditions, and hitherto unheard-of high temperatures in thatpart of the earth's surface.

The Arctic is Melting

1922

“…A change in our climate is taking place very sensibly." Snowfall has become "less frequent and less deep." Rivers that once "seldom failed to freeze over in the course of the winter, scarcely ever do so now."

And this is having an especially worrisome effect on the food supply: "This change has produced an unfortunate fluctuation between heat and cold, in the spring of the year, which is very fatal to fruits."

"Notes on the State of Virginia" by Thomas Jefferson, 1785.

Global Warming

Real Crisis?

Alarmist Hype?

Fraud?

Climategate