Upload
international-watercentre
View
619
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Water Resources Planning and Governance in Highly Contested Rivers
RiverSymposium, 9 October 2012 Robert Speed Okeanos Pty Ltd
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
Charting Our Water Future
6 Executive Summary
The drivers of this resource challenge are fundamentally tied to economic growth and development. Agriculture accounts for approximately 3,100 billion m3, or 71 percent of global water withdrawals today, and without efficiency gains will increase to 4,500 billion m3 by 2030 (a slight decline to 65 percent of global water withdrawals). The water challenge is therefore closely tied to food provision and trade. Centers of agricultural demand, also where some of the poorest subsistence farmers live, are primarily in India (projected withdrawals of 1,195 billion m3 in 2030), Sub-Saharan Africa (820 billion m3), and China (420 billion m3). Industrial withdrawals account for 16 percent of today’s global demand, growing to a projected 22 percent in 2030. The growth will come primarily from China (where industrial water demand in 2030 is projected at 265 billion m3, driven mainly by power generation), which alone accounts for 40 percent of the additional industrial demand worldwide. Demand for water for domestic use will decrease as a percentage of total, from 14 percent today to 12 percent in 2030, although it will grow in specific basins, especially in emerging markets.
While the gap between supply and demand will be closed, the question is how. Given the patterns of improvement of the past, will the water sector land on an efficient solution that is environmentally sustainable and economically viable? There is every reason to believe it will not. The annual rate of efficiency improvement in agricultural water use between 1990 and 2004 was approximately 1 percent across both rain-fed and irrigated areas. A similar rate of improvement occurred in industry. Were agriculture and industry to sustain this rate to 2030, improvements in water efficiency would address only 20 percent of the supply-demand gap, leaving a large deficit to be filled. Similarly, a business-as-usual supply build-out, assuming constraints in
Exhibit I
Basins with surplus
Municipal &Domestic
6,900
Basins with deficits
Agriculture
Industry
Existingaccessible, reliable, sustainablesupply1
4,500
Existingwithdrawals2
2030withdrawals3
Surface water
Aggregated global gap between existing accessible, reliable supply1 and 2030 water withdrawals, assuming no efficiency gainsBillion m3, 154 basins/regions
3,100
4,5003,500
800
1,500
900
600
2,800
1004,200
Groundwater700
1 Existing supply which can be provided at 90% reliability, based on historical hydrology and infrastructure investments scheduled through 2010; net of environmental requirements
2 Based on 2010 agricultural production analyses from IFPRI3 Based on GDP, population projections and agricultural production projections from IFPRI; considers no water productivity gains between 2005-2030
SOURCE: Water 2030 Global Water Supply and Demand model; agricultural production based on IFPRI IMPACT-WATER base case
-40%
Relevant supply quantity is much lower that the
absolute renewable water availability in nature
CAGR2%
Units: billion m3
Source: Mckinsey, 2009, Char%ng our Water Future
Historical PerspecHves and Approaches
Infrastructure & water use
• water resource (surface) • reconciliation • demand projections • water supply regulation • system optimisation
Systemic water resources
• catchment (IWRM) • resource protection • demand management • WQ management • stakeholder engagement
Growth & development
• political-economic • inter-sectoral • uncertainty (change) • water as catalyst/const • adaptive management
pre-‐1970’s 1980’s & 1990s 2000’s
Issue 1.
• In heavily contested basins, it is oQen no longer possible to allocate and manage water resources to meet all developmental demands.
• Water is both a major constraint and also a catalyst for economic development.
ShiQ from “water for the economy” to “water in the economy”
The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
Lesson: Water plans and development plans should be developed through an itera6ve process
Issue 2.
• People – and what they value – maXer in water resources management. All the more so in contested basins.
Lesson: Understand the social and cultural values and incorporate those in the process
Issue 3.
• Where water resources development offers clear social and economic benefits, environmental protecHon needs to demonstrate an equally compelling case. In developing countries, this is even more criHcal.
95% decline in fish fry
Lesson: the importance of good science and monitoring only increases as basins become more contested
Issue 4.
• Challenges associated with water security are intricately linked with issues related to food and energy security
Lesson: Understand the connec6ons, the dependencies, and the costs and benefits
Issue 5.
• Having an aspiraHonal vision for a basin can promote a long-‐term view BUT may not always provide guidance on how trade-‐offs should be managed
Pegram et al., 2012
Lesson: Acknowledge that you can’t have everything and decide what it is you want from the basin
Thank you!