Water Research in the SECC

Puneet SrivastavaAuburn University

Recent Research Activities

Extension, Assessment, and Engagement Activities including those in support of NIDIS

SEWaterClimate.org

Weather

Climate ChangeWeek 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Seasonal-Interannual

Decadal

Funding provided by the RISA program is heavily leveraged by funding from other sources (NASA, NIDIS, NOAA-SARP, USDA, etc.)

The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Improves Reference ET (ETo) Forecasts in the SE USA

• All forecast skill were generally positive for up to lead day 7 throughout the year, with higher skill in cooler months compared to warmer months.

Tian, D. and C.J. Martinez. 2014. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(3): 1152-1165.

• Evaluated daily ETo forecasts using the GEFS reforecasts in the SE US and to incorporate the ETo forecasts into irrigation scheduling to explore the usefulness of the forecasts for water management.

• ETo was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation, and ensemble forecasts were downscaled and bias corrected using a forecast analog approach.

Seasonal Prediction of Regional Reference Evapotranspiration Based on Climate Forecast System Version 2

• The CFSv2-based ETo forecasts showed higher predictability in cold seasons than in warm seasons.

Tian, D., C.J. Martinez, and W.D. Graham. 2014. Published in Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15(3): 1166-1188.

• The 12-km ETo forecasts were produced by downscaling coarse-scale ETo forecasts from the CFSv2 retrospective forecast archive and by downscaling CFSv2 maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tmean), solar radiation (Rs), and wind speed (Wind) individually and calculating ETo using those downscaled variables.

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• Improved Municipal Water Demand Forecasts for Tampa Bay Watero Tian, D., Martinez, C.J. and T. Asefa. Improving short-term urban water demand

forecasts using forecast analogs of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Submitted to Journal of Hydrology.

• Evaluation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in the SE USAo Tian, D., Martinez, C.J., Graham, W.D., and S. Hwang. 2014. Statistical downscaling

of multi-model forecasts for seasonal precipitation and surface temperature over the southeastern USA. Journal of Climate, 27(22): 8384-8411.

• Probability of Exceedance Streamflow Forecasts for Tampa Bay Watero Risko, S.L. and C.J. Martinez. 2014. Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in west-

central Florida using multiple climate predictors. Journal of Hydrology, 519A: 1130-1140.

Martinez – Water Research

Forecast Streamflows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions

Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) from the Southeast River Forecast Center (SERFC) in the basin is used to develop a streamflow forecasting tool

Evaluate approaches (e.g. analog, ENSO trend, combined analog) to streamflow forecasting A variety of stakeholders (boating groups, state regulatory agencies, dam operators, etc.)

are interested in streamflow forecasts.

P. Srivastava and G. Mirhosseini

ENSO Impacts on Groundwater Levels in the Lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

Objectives• Quantify the effect of ENSO-induced climate variability on

groundwater levels under different overburden conditions

• Quantify how pumping for irrigation exacerbates the effect of La Nina on groundwater levels, and

• Develop procedure for forecasting groundwater levels using ENSO forecasts.

Subhasis Mitra, Sarmistha Singh, and Puneet Srivastava

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Effects of Irrigation Pumpage During droughts on Groundwater Levels and Groundwater Budget Components

MODular Finite Element Model (MODFE)

MODFE is used to study the effects of irrigation on groundwater levels and groundwater budget components

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Climate variability impacts on low stream flows in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin

Studying individual and coupled impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)

Quantify the effect of groundwater pumpage on stream-aquifer flow and federally-protected species residing in the lower ACF river basin using the Modular Finite Element (MODFE) groundwater model

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What do climate projections say about future droughts in Alabama?

The objective of the study is to quantify how frequency, severity and spatial extent of droughts is expected to change in Alabama.

Climate projections are used from three GCMs: Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Community Climate System Model (CCSM)

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) have been computed

Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and Self-calibrating Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) will be computed as well.

Nischal Mishra and Puneet Srivastava

Effect of Climate Change on Rainfall and Runoff Erosivity in the Southeast US

Erosivity Erosive force of precipitation events

(MJmm/h/ha/yr) Defined by how hard it rains (intensity)

and how much it rains (amount) Calculated using long term precipitation

data Used in the Revised Universal Soil Loss

Equation (RUSLE2) mathematical model Datasets Used

COAPS Land Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate Change Experiment for the South East US at 10 km (CLAREnCE10) for the current (1968-2000) and future climate (2038-2070). (Source: FSU)

Gridded observed precipitation data at 12km resolution from 1949-2010. (Source: Ed Mauer)

Station precipitation data (Source: NOAA)

Nafiul Islam and Puneet Srivastava

http://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/pdf/2012AnnualReport_508.pdf; http://gridssat.nsstc.uah.edu/

Daily assessment of water stress on corn - GriDSSAT

GriDSSAT uses NASA LIS data and satellite-derived insolation

Being used to inform state-level policy Reported in the NASA 2012 annual report Water stress on other crops (e.g., soybeans, cotton,

and peanuts) are being incorporated in GriDSSAT

Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy

Center Pivot Irrigation Inventory and Demand

Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy

As part of Alabama’s efforts to both promote irrigation AND protect our water resources; detailed information about water use (and location) is a must.

UAH’s Earth Systems Science Center (ESSC) embarked on a center pivot survey as part of a larger effort to identify where and how much water is being used in the state.

Center Pivot Irrigation Inventory and Demand

Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy

• 2013 Center pivot acreage results aggregated by county

• Center pivot acreage over time (2006, 2009, 2011 & 2013 data surveys)

Analysis Using Center Pivot Survey Data

Cameron Handyside, Richard McNider, and John Christy

• Center pivot irrigation demand based on 50-year crop model results

• Center pivot acreage as a percentage of total HUC-12 watershed acreage

Products & Tools

Web portals

Assessment & EvaluationNetworks

Fact Sheets, Presentations

SEWaterClimate.org

ENGAGEMENT

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Engagement and Assessment

…to increase the regional relevance and usability of climate and sea level rise models for water suppliers and resources managers in Florida

This work is partially funded under a grant from the Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office.

Learning Network Actionable Science Building Community Shared Interests Building Identity Managing Diversity Sustainability

Rigorous Science User Perspective Varied Contexts Communicating

Science

Growing strong -3 years—10 workshops--25 participants–2 funded projects- proposals-papers-new knowledge-searchable website FloridaWCA.org

Partners6 Water Utilities4 Universities3 Water Mgt DistrictsLocal governmentsPublic

SEWaterClimate.org

Developed by NCSU

Displays present and past water conditions over different geographic areas

Displays stream flows, precipitation, groundwater

Includes radar estimates of rainfall over specified time periods

Data Display Tool

Developed by NCSU

Daily past evaporation data and historical monthly evaporation

Developed by NCSU

Radar-based Drought Monitoring

Using methods developed at Texas A&M, we’re building tools using NWS weather radar data to provide very local estimates of drought severity (~5km)

• Support for this effort is provided by USDA.

Data will be compared to field assessments to associate local impacts of drought with the radar-based indices of drought severity.

Seasonal Forecast Downscaling

Screenshots from Experimental Seasonal Precipitation Outlook Pageshttp://omega.meas.ncsu.edu/climate/SFXmap.php

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

Continue to pursue applied research that help reduce climate risks for water stakeholders

Initiate research activities that utilize intra-seasonal (week 3 and week 4) forecasts being developed by the Climate Prediction Center

Conduct integrated regional assessment of climate change impacts on water resources

Continue to develop products, tools, information sheets, etc. to keep stakeholders informed and engaged; periodically conduct stakeholder assessment to identify needs

Fully develop and deploy SEWaterClimate.org Continue to assist with (and expand) NIDIS activities in the

Southeast

Future Directions