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The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Water Productivity Indicators:What do they tell us?
International Workshop on“Going Beyond Agricultural Water Productivity”
December 8-9, 2014World Bank, Washington DC
Keith FuglieEconomic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
Washington, DC
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
• Water productivity reflects choices made by farmers– Crops
– Application technology
– Management practices
• Choices influenced by economic conditions– Crop and input prices
– (private opportunity) cost and availability of water
– Cost of adopting new application technology or management practices, including learning costs
• Changes in water productivity indicators suggest economic conditions have changed
• Indicators: good for generating hypotheses about what might be driving changes
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Long-term trends in U.S. irrigated agriculture:Important behavioral change since 1980s
Source: USDA and USGS
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Indicators: dramatic improvements in “crop per drop”What’s driving this change?
Source: USDA and USGS
Crop output (price weighted): value of all grain, oilseed, Industrial, hay & horticultural crops produced under Irrigation deflated by an agricultural price index
Water consumption assuming same growth rate as crop output or irrig area
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Availability of state & regional agricultural and water data allow deeper analysis of what’s driving changes
Source: USDA
Irrigated cropland in 2007
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Gains in “crop per drop” have varied widely across regions
Source: Derived from USDA and USGS data
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
California- competition from non-agricultural water use
Water policy reforms:– Diverted more water for
environmental purposes
– Increased irrigation prices
– Increased the variation in prices paid by farmers
Source: USDA and USGS
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Behavioral response: change in crop mix
Source: USDA FRIS
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Behavioral response: move to water-productive crops
Source: USDA FRIS
Water footprint
Water consump
Land yield
Water yield
m3/T m3/Ha K$/Ha $/m3
Almond 8,047 19,152 11.5 0.60
Alfalfa 254 3,810 2.3 0.60
Cotton 4,029 7,252 3.2 0.44
Corn 1,222 16,986 2.8 0.16
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Northern Plains- exploitation of Ogallala aquifer
Source: USDA and USGS
Water policy:– Restrictions on new wells
Conservation policy:– Subsidies for irrigation
technology adoption
Behavioral response: – 1980s structural break– New irrigation technologies– Improved corn-soybean
technologies
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Southern Plains-significant fall in groundwater levels
Source: USDA and USGS
Water policy:– Fewer restrictions
Behavioral response: – Reversion to dryland
farming
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
N vs. S Plains: Value share of irrigated crop production
Source: USDA FRIS
The views expressed are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or USDA.
Usefulness of water productivity indicators
• Show progress toward resource conservation goals
• Show potential for raising water productivity in water scarce areas– But reductions in irrigation water withdrawals may not increase real
water available for other uses if crop water consumption doesn’t change
• Provide basis for generating and testing hypothesis about how users respond to policy & market incentives affecting water use– But differences in water productivity do not reflect irrational or laggard
behavior on the part of users