Water Information Research and Development … away from HTML-linked documents to a web of linked data. WIRADA research used Linked Data technologies to publish current water observations

Water Information Research and Development Alliance

ANNUAL REPORT 2014–15

2 Water Information Research and Development Alliance

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Cover photograph: zetter (iStockPhoto)

www.bom.gov.au/water

www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Water-resources

http://www.bom.gov.au/water

http://www.csiro.au/en/Research/LWF/Areas/Water-resources

3Annual Report 2014–15

Executive summary .................................... 4

Message from the chair .............................. 6

WIRADA successes ..................................... 8

Let’s talk about water— standards for data exchange ................... 10

Connecting water data using Linked Data ............................................... 12

Flood and short-term streamflow forecasting ............................ 14

Seasonal streamflow forecasting ............ 16

Integrated modelling system for water resource assessments and accounts ...... 18

About the Water Information Research and Development Alliance ....................... 21

Performance report ................................... 22

WIRADA report card 2014–15 ................... 23

CONTENTS


Our research portfolio included four projects across our

three research themes: water informatics, water balance

modelling and streamflow forecasting.

HIGHLIGHTS OF 2014–15

Informatics—data services

Our informatics research focused on two primary

topics—international standards development and

Linked Data. The standards work delivered three

proposed international water data markup language

standards to the Open Geospatial Consortium, being

GroundwaterML2.0, WaterML2.0 part 2 (covering ratings,

gaugings and sections), and TimeseriesML. These are

being adopted internationally by water information

agencies such as the Bureau of Meteorology, and provide

a foundation for effective and efficient exchange of water

data and information.

Linked Data standards and technologies are the

foundation of future web-based data services, as we

move away from HTML-linked documents to a web

of linked data. WIRADA research used Linked Data

technologies to publish current water observations and

link these with previously unconnected web-based

data sources. The Bureau was also provided with base

technologies to manage terminology and definitions of

water-related concepts to increase interoperability, and

overcome the heterogeneity challenges, of Australian

water information systems.

Flow forecasting

Significant scientific advances were made in both

short-term and seasonal forecasting areas. Short-term

forecasting improvements included increased accuracy

of rainfall forecasts as an input to hydrological models;

improved estimates of rainfall uncertainty; a better

understanding of relative performance of alternative

rainfall-runoff models; improved estimation of hydrological

model errors; and a more functional and effective version

of the model suite used for short-term forecasting—

Short-term Water Information and Forecasting Tools v2

(SWIFT2).

Seasonal flow forecasting research focused on the

science needed to increase accuracy, extend lead time,

distribute forecasts into shorter time periods, and expand

the number of sites across Australia for which reliable

seasonal forecasts can be made. Achievements this year

included further development of the Forecast Guided

Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS) model and significant

improvements in merging statistical and dynamical

forecasts, offering the Bureau a forecast product that is

better and easier to interpret and communicate.

Australian Water Resources Assessment

modelling system

An improved landscape component of the Australia

Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) modelling system

was implemented across continental Australia. It was

tested against peer models and performed better than

other continental-scale models and similar to or better

than individually calibrated lumped conceptual models,

supporting more timely and efficient catchment-scale

rainfall-runoff modelling for all of Australia.

The AWRA river system component was implemented

across the Murray–Darling Basin and other National Water

Account regions. The model takes account of the fluxes

and stores associated with regulated and unregulated

river systems, and includes surface and groundwater

interactions. Although calibrated regionally rather

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This year we built upon our previous scientific achievements and

operational outcomes, and delivered research and development

results that have advanced the quality, breadth, timeliness and

utility of Bureau water information products and services.


than at river-reach scale, performance within various

Murray–Darling Basin catchments was found to be

comparable to that of the models used for

Murray–Darling Basin planning.

WIRADA MANAGEMENT

The year ran well and efficiently, due in large part

to the foundation guidance set in place in 2013–14

through our new science plan, and implementation and

communication strategies. There were also no personnel

changes in either the Management Committee or the

WIRADA director position.

COMMUNICATION FOCUS

This year we increased focus on communication—from

scientific publications to workshops with end users on

the operational outcomes of WIRADA research. In line

with the WIRADA communication strategy all major

activities were planned with consideration of activity,

objective, audience, key messages, timing and method.

Notable achievements included research papers

in hydrology and Earth system sciences and water

resources research. Stakeholder meetings were held with

Seqwater, Goulburn–Murray Water, the Goulburn–Broken

and North Central Catchment Management Authorities,

the State Water Corporation of New South Wales and the

Coleambally Irrigation Cooperative Limited.

Overseas engagement included a seminar to the Nanjing

Hydraulic Research Institute on the FoGSS model (see

page 16). I was also invited to present to Californian

environmental managers on water modelling and

environmental intelligence.

THE YEAR AHEAD

Our focus for next year is to wrap up current research

activities and ensure the legacy of WIRADA is preserved

and available for the future. This includes the scientific

and operational achievements of the past eight years

of WIRADA, and the knowledge of how to create,

maintain, manage and deliver a successful research and

development partnership.

I congratulate all WIRADA people on this year’s

achievements, and look forward to a great year ahead.

Dr Robert Argent

WIRADA Director


Innovation is central to the success

of the Bureau’s Water Information

Programme. Our seven-year

research and development

partnership with CSIRO has helped

us to develop information products,

services and infrastructure that

deliver real value to Australia.

Recent severe rainfall deficiencies and the 2015 El Niño

again stress the importance of government working

together to support policy and decision-making in many

industries and sectors.

As chair of the Management Committee, I recognise the

value in bringing together the research and operational

expertise of both organisations. Seven years into an

impressive programme of work, our researchers continue

to deliver valuable innovation to support the nation in

managing its precious water resources.

An exciting year is also ahead as WIRADA continues to

deliver research of direct and immediate application to

the Bureau’s operational systems and services.

Streamflow forecasting continues to expand to more

sites across Australia, with the public gaining access

to a new short-term forecast service in the near future.

WIRADA research continues to help the Bureau to refine

its forecasts into a nationwide service that extends from

flood warnings to streamflow outlooks three months

ahead. Research continues to develop seasonal forecasts

beyond three months.

This June the Bureau began to share AWRA modelling

system data with State and Australian Government

agencies. A new website will be developed to provide

public users with daily estimates of water movement

through the landscape and across the continent.

In December 2015, a special WIRADA-themed session

is planned for the international Hydrology and Water

Resources Symposium, in Hobart. This will be an

opportunity to showcase to industry the Bureau’s key

water information services and the world-class research

behind them.

I thank all those involved in WIRADA for their effort during

the year. The Management Committee looks forward to

successful completion of the current phase of WIRADA

next year.

Graham Hawke

Deputy Director, Environment and Research

MESSAGE FROM THE CHAIR


Water resources are one

of the bigger challenges

and opportunities the

nation faces—whether in

the extremes of drought

or flood, or managing

for social, economic and

environment outcomes.

Through our strategic collaboration with

the Bureau, we are proud to be delivering

science solutions that will inform a more

secure water future.

WIRADA continues to provide high-value

research that makes a real difference to

Australia. The quality research that underpins

these successes has the recognition of our

international collaborators confirmed by their

desire to apply these novel methods.

In 2014–15 we have seen our long-term

investment deliver new and refined forecasting

and water balance modelling capabilities.

Through collaboration, we have also seen wider

international uptake of our standards work—

including in domains other than water—this

is an area where Australia can proudly claim

international leadership.

WIRADA is a team effort. I congratulate the

CSIRO and Bureau teams on their achievements

of the past year and look forward to continued

success and impact.

Warwick McDonald

Research Director,

Water Resource Management, CSIRO


WIRADA SUCCESSES

Water resources and aquatic ecosystems

Data ingestion and storage

Climate and water monitoring and data collection

COLLECT DISCOVER INGEST ASSEMBLE POLISH

Water balance analysis

International data standards that

incorporate WIRADA research reduce

errors and help us to share and understand

Australia’s national water data.

Our standardised water balance analysis

methods increase Australia’s capacity to explain

and understand of our past use of water.

The increased detail we provide in analysis helps

to identify areas where water management

could be improved to deliver societal benefits.

Our contributions to standards for river gaugings

and ratings data increase the opportunity to share

information between users.

Our research on standard and persistent

identification of monitoring points reduces errors in

collecting and sharing monitoring data.

WIRADA developed an authoritative national

information system of water features that helps

to standardise water resources information for

sharing and reporting.

Explore the Australian Hydrological Geospatial Fabric

Understand the Water Data Transfer Format

The Australian Water Resources Information System underpins collection, management and

reporting of water data

The Australian Water Resources Assessment modelling system provides continental-scale

analysis of key water balance terms

Understand the international WaterML standard

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/geofabric/index.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/geofabric/index.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/standards/wdtf/index.shtml

http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/waterml


POLISH AUGMENT SHARE ANALYSE PREDICT REPORT

Water data services

Streamflow forecasts and flood warnings

National water resources reporting

WIRADA research contributes to increases in the

quality and standard of analysis and reporting,

providing better water information services.

Our research supports easier and broader

access to Australia’s water data.

Seasonal streamflow forecasts based on

WIRADA research support water management

decisions across more than 100 sites in

six States and Territories.

Our outputs provide emergency services with

improved warnings of extreme events.

National water reports use WIRADA research

to give Australians greater insight into the

nature of our national water resources

and how they are used.

Access high-quality data for hydrologic reference sites

Compare water market information

Access water data online

View short-term streamflow forecasts (registered user access)

View seasonal streamflow forecasts

Read the Australian Water Resources Assessments

Read the National Water Account

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/hrs/

http://www.nationalwatermarket.gov.au/water-market-reports/index.html

http://www.bom.gov.au/waterdata/

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/awra/index.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/nwa/


LET’S TALK ABOUT WATER STANDARDS FOR DATA EXCHANGE

BUREAU SPONSOR Tony Boston

COLLABORATORS U.S. Geological Survey; Aquatic Informatics; Open Geospatial Consortium;

World Meteorological Organization; KISTERS; UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology;

Geological Survey of Canada; European Commission, Directorate General–

Joint Research Centre; Federation University Australia; Geological Surveys of

Germany; British Geological Survey; Bureau de Recherche Géologiques et Minières;

International Groundwater Resources Assessment Centre; UNESCO; Salzburg

University; Polish Geological Institute

PROJECT LEADER Peter Taylor

Objective: To improve access to hydrological data within Australia through new internationally recognised exchange standards and services.

‘Development of the WaterML2 Part 2 standard

will help improve interoperability between

systems and support greater water data

sharing in Australia and internationally.’

MARTIN READ, Manager of Water Assessment Branch, Department of Primary Industries, Parks,

Water and Environment, Tasmania

CHALLENGE

To understand freshwater resources at a national

level requires integration of data from many diverse

stakeholders. Much of these hydrological data are stored

within systems that have unique structures, definitions

and means of access. For example, one water agency

may measure water in an aquifer using a method that

varies considerably from that used by another.

To compare and integrate such data across Australia

is a huge challenge.

Having technical experts manually convert data for

analysis or reporting wastes time and resources.

Computer software can assist by automating processes

of data exchange. However, this requires a common

language, or data exchange standard, in which data may

be transmitted and more easily understood.

A common language with agreed definitions for concepts

and terminology supports the combination of data from

disparate sources, valid comparisons and hydrological

analyses. Development of such standards requires

understanding of each specific hydrological data type:

groundwater features, such as aquifers and boreholes;

observation processes; surface water measurements,

such as river rating tables; continuous observations of

stream sections; storage calculations; and so on.

SOLUTION

We are developing data exchange standards in three

important areas of hydrology: groundwater features

and observations, river and storage calculations, and

continuous time-series observations.

Developing exchange standards requires expression of

real work concepts in a way a computer can understand.

For example, how do you tell a computer that someone

waded into a river, held onto a flow meter and measured

the velocity of the water at a specific location? This must

be done in a way that is consistent across practices

in different countries. To do this, we bring together

international experts in computer science, geospatial

information systems and hydrology. Together we capture

and harmonise our definitions of these concepts and

express them in a way computers can understand.


Through international collaboration this activity is driving

long-term change in how countries around the world

exchange hydrological data.

ACHIEVEMENTS

In collaboration with our international partners, we have

developed three proposed international standards:

• GroundwaterML2.0 is a standard for exchange of

groundwater features (aquifers, boreholes, wells,

construction components etc.) and observations.

The draft is undergoing testing, with submission to

the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) expected

in 2016. This project has developed software to

deliver data from Australia’s National Groundwater

Information System using this standard.

• WaterML2.0 part 2 is a standard to exchange rating

tables, river gauging observations and cross-sections.

We have progressed to the final stage of adoption,

with a final OGC vote to conclude in two months.

• TimeseriesML builds on previous work in WaterML2.0

part 1, by developing a standard for time-series data

exchange that is not specific to hydrology. It has

recently been submitted to the OGC as a ‘Request

for Comment’. Following consideration of comments

from the broader public, it will be proposed as a

standard in early 2016.

Our standards are being adopted by the Bureau and

water agencies around the world. This provides the

Bureau, and Australian water agencies, with a solid

foundation to automate the exchange of data and improve

understanding of our precious water resources.

NEXT STEPS

Next year will see the adoption of WaterML2.0 part 2

and TimeseriesML as standards. We will also finalise

drafting of the GroundwaterML2.0 standard and submit it

for adoption.

From WIRADA to the world

Most environmental monitoring programs

undertake continuous observations that produce

time-series data. WaterML2.0 part 1, developed

within WIRADA, defined an exchange format

for hydrological time-series data. It has been

identified as a potential solution to time-series

exchange within and across other science

domains, such as oceanography, air quality

monitoring and meteorology.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

saw this potential. It moved to establish the

Open Geospatial Consortium TimeseriesML

working group, led by WIRADA Informatics,

with the aim to standardise the time-series

parts of WaterML2.0 part 1. We anticipate that

the WMO Commission for Basic Systems will

endorse TimeseriesML as a WMO standard for

data encoding at the CBS-16 meeting in 2016.

WaterML2.0 part 1 has been adopted by key

organisations including the USGS1 and has

been endorsed by the United States National

Strategy for Civil Earth Observations2, the

Federal Geographic Data Committee3 and

for cross-domain exchange by the European

Union’s large-scale data exchange initiative—

INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information

in Europe).

WIRADA work that was initially focused

on hydrological data is now being applied

in a much broader area of application—

worldwide monitoring and management of

our environment.

1. http://help.waterdata.usgs.gov/news/april-10-20142. www.opengeospatial.org/pressroom/pressreleases/18313. www.fgdc.gov/standards/news/WaterML


BUREAU SPONSOR Tony Boston

COLLABORATORS World Meteorological Organization

PROJECT LEADER Peter Taylor

Objective: Improve understanding of water resources by connecting hydrological data to relevant context and definitions.

CONNECTING WATER DATA USING LINKED DATA

A national platform to define environmental terms used online

The Linked Data Registry tool is used at the

Bureau to help it manage a range of water-

related terminology, or vocabularies. Work has

also progressed with using the environment.

data.gov.au web domain to identify and discover

data assets. Together, these two technologies

offer a national platform for online publication

of environmental data and definitions. This

will improve publication and interpretation of

environmental data within Australia.

CHALLENGE

Water observation data published or exchanged without

sufficient context can be difficult or even impossible to

interpret. For example, ‘the river is flowing at 3 cumecs’.

Which river? How much is 3 ‘cumecs’ and how accurate

is the value? Is that high or low? How does that relate to

expected flow?

As the volume of data on the internet grows, it

is increasingly important that data we publish are

sufficiently described. Data that lack description and

context are hard to reuse, and can mislead. However,

when we publish and exchange data there is a delicate

balance between simplicity and complexity. The public

and decision-makers require information that is simple,

but also contextually meaningful and accurate.

For the Bureau to integrate and publish water data, it

must understand the terminology used by different

water agencies as well as manage its own, harmonised

definitions. Additionally, these definitions must be

consistent and transparent.

SOLUTION

To tackle this problem we:

• Used ‘Linked Data’ to publish data with relevant

context to aid interpretation, in a way that is

machine-readable.

• Developed tools and techniques to allow the Bureau

to manage and publish definitions of key terms and

concepts online in a well-controlled manner. For

example, by publishing formal definitions of units of

measure, measured properties, instrument types,

and datums.

Linked Data offers a means to distribute data on the

internet with links to other related data that can help with

interpretation. It uses foundational concepts that make

web pages work, but extends them to work with data.

We are using Linked Data to publish hydro-meteorological

observational data with links to context around long-

term averages and relevant spatial relationships. This has

involved developing a trial data service that publishes

current weather observations with links to long-term

averages from Bureau data products. This provides

useful context observations—how hot is it today

compared to normal? Is today’s normal different from the

normal 50 years ago?


While these are simple examples, the underlying

concepts are changing the way in which data are used on

the internet.

We are using Linked Data approaches to publish the

definitions of concepts online, which allows both humans

and computers to understand exactly what is described

within data. To do this we use a software product called

the Linked Data Registry, which has been pioneered by

the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through

development of the WMO Codes Registry.

ACHIEVEMENTS

Through WIRADA Informatics we have developed services

to publish current weather observations using Linked

Data, bringing together previously unconnected data.

Context is now available with these observations that

provide opportunities for new applications and services.

This research positions the Bureau to use these

approaches to bring together many of its data publishing

platforms, resulting in an improved user experience and

new opportunities for using its data.

Software to allow the Bureau to manage its terminology

and definitions of water-related concepts has also

been delivered. The Linked Data Registry has been

tested and customised to give the Bureau a platform to

consistently manage and publish terminology. This will

assist Australian water information systems to be more

interoperable by ensuring everyone understands when

they are talking about the same thing.

NEXT STEPS

We will extend the current prototype data services to

include water level and storage information and other

hydrological data products, such as the Geofabric.

This will allow navigation between these data products,

and build awareness of other Bureau data products.

Linked Data provides users with access to related information, delivering additional context and increasing efficiencies through data reuse. For example, how do this month’s current weather observations compare to the long-term average in the ACORN-SAT climate record?

ACORN-SAT historic climate record

HOW DO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS COMPARE TO THE HISTORIC RECORD?

Current weather observations

STATIONS

STATIONS

STATISTICS

LOCATION

NAME

RAINFALL DISTRICT

TEMPERATURE

RAINFALL

OBSERVATION


BUREAU SPONSOR Dasarath Jayasuriya

COLLABORATORS Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research,

The University of Melbourne

PROJECT LEADER David Robertson

Objective: Generating continuous ensemble short-term streamflow forecasts to complement flood forecasting capabilities.

CHALLENGE

Forecasts of streamflow assist Australia to manage

extreme events and optimise water resource use.

The Bureau is operationalising a new continuous short-

term streamflow forecasting service that issues a

prediction of streamflow every day for the coming seven

days. It complements existing flood forecasting and

warning services that focus on high-flow events.

The service will also provide estimates of forecast

uncertainty using ensembles, or multiple realisations

of equally likely forecasts.

Generating accurate short-term forecasts that correctly

describe forecast uncertainty is a challenge. It requires

integration of a number of components:

• quality-controlled rainfall and streamflow observations

available in real-time;

• accurate rainfall forecasts and an estimate of

their errors;

• continuous hydrological models running at hourly

time steps that are robust across Australia’s diverse

catchments;

• adaptable methods to update streamflow predictions

and forecasts based on recent observations, and

quantify remaining prediction errors, and

• efficient computational systems.

SOLUTION

This year we have improved both forecast accuracy

and our estimates of uncertainty through targeted

improvements in the prototype forecasting system.

Specifically we have tested:

• alternative sources of forecast rainfall—good rainfall

estimates are critical for accurate streamflow

forecasts and are a source of significant uncertainty;

• the performance of alternative hydrological models,

which transform observed and forecast rainfall into

streamflow predictions; and

• new methods to describe the complex errors of

hourly streamflow simulations. As hydrologic models

simulate streamflow to various levels of accuracy, it is

necessary to characterise error in these predictions.

ACHIEVEMENTS

We have tested the performance of streamflow forecasts

generated with either raw or post-processed rainfall

forecasts from the ACCESS-G numerical weather

prediction system and the Poor Man’s Ensemble (PME)

system. Post-processing increases the accuracy of the

rainfall forecasts, and generates a reliable estimate

of rainfall forecast uncertainty. Streamflow forecasts

produced using the post-processed PME rainfall forecasts

are more accurate than those produced using post-

processed ACCESS-G forecasts. The Bureau will adopt

rainfall forecast post-processing methods for its new

ensemble short-term forecasting service and will further

evaluate the PME.

FLOOD AND SHORT-TERM STREAMFLOW FORECASTING


The performance of the hydrological model used in

the current forecasting system (GR4H) was compared

to a suite of alternatives using operational model

configurations. While GR4H produces the best

independent simulations for the majority of catchments,

alternative models do better for some catchments and

streamflow hydrograph components.

A staged error-modelling approach has been developed to

incrementally characterise features of hydrological model

errors. This approach corrects long-term biases, updates

model forecasts using recent prediction errors and

describes the distribution of residual errors. The Bureau is

adopting this error-modelling approach as it transitions the

service to produce ensemble forecasts.

We have also delivered the Short-term Water Information

and Forecasting Tools version 2 (SWIFT2). This is a

redesigned forecasting software package that improves

computational efficiency and functionality.

NEXT STEPS

Work in the next year will:

• extend the rainfall post-processing approach to deal

with rainfall forecasts from ensemble numerical

weather prediction models;

• refine and evaluate the performance of the staged

error-modelling approach for ephemeral and

intermittent catchments that periodically cease to

flow; and

• transition SWIFT2 into the operational environment.

A national short-term streamflow forecast service

During the last year, the Bureau has

expanded its prototype deterministic short-

term streamflow service to an additional 51

catchments across Australia. It now includes

114 forecast locations in 62 catchments spread

throughout all States and Territories. The

current service is available to 150 registered

users for testing and will be available to the

public in mid-2015.

In future we will:

• expand the service to additional

catchments and extend the modelling

capability of the existing SWIFT2 software;

• develop probabilistic short-term

streamflow forecasts that are based on

ensemble rainfall forcing. These will

provide users with estimates of forecast

uncertainty; and

• enhance the experience of forecast

users with improved web interfaces that

also incorporate the new probabilistic

streamflow forecasts.


BUREAU SPONSOR Dasarath Jayasuriya

COLLABORATORS Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research

PROJECT LEADER Q. J. Wang

Objective: To increase forecast accuracy, extend lead time and provide easy-to-use forecast products for water managers.

SEASONAL STREAMFLOW FORECASTING

‘Seasonal streamflow forecast information

gives us confidence that we are making the

best decisions possible to efficiently manage

our water.’

KATHERINE LARKINGS, Water Strategic Planning Engineer, Icon Water, ACT

CHALLENGE

The Bureau now has seasonal streamflow forecasts for

more than 100 locations across major storages and river

systems in Australia available to the public. Forecasts

are issued at the start of each month and provide the

likelihood for a given volume of water flowing in the next

three months.

Feedback from water managers shows that the service

already supports water-resource planning and operational

decisions. However, users have identified a number of

required improvements, setting a clear path for research:

• expand the number of forecast sites;

• improve forecast performance;

• extend forecasts out to 12 months; and

• provide forecasts in monthly volumes, rather than just

seasonal totals.

SOLUTION

The Bureau has two models that produce seasonal

streamflow forecasts. Current public forecasts use

a statistical approach, which captures relationships

shown in the past between climate and catchment

conditions and observed streamflows. A prototype

dynamical model—which simulates processes of climate

and hydrological systems—also provides forecasts to

registered users at nearly 100 sites across Australia. Last

year we developed a quantile model averaging (QMA)

method to merge the forecasts from these two models.

Merging allows us to take advantage of the different

strengths of the statistical and dynamical approaches.

This year we rigorously tested how effective the QMA

method is to ensure it is robust to use within the

Bureau’s streamflow forecast service.

It is a major task to develop a service that extends

streamflow forecasts out to 12 months and provides

monthly volumes. Last year we developed the Forecast

Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS) model. This model

uses outputs from seasonal climate models to generate

monthly rainfall forecasts, which feed into a monthly

water balance model. A further algorithm allows us to

correct for error and quantify uncertainty. This year we

continued to develop and test the FoGSS model in a

wider range of catchments typical for Australia.

ACHIEVEMENTS

We tested the ability for the QMA method to merge

forecasts from statistical and dynamical models in a

further 40 sites. These included a variety of geographic

and climatic regions. The QMA merged forecasts were


found to consistently improve forecast skill. The QMA

method also results in forecast distributions with a

unimodal shape, even when the statistical and dynamical

forecasts are not in agreement. A unimodal shape is

easier to communicate, interpret and apply in forecasts.

The Bureau has now integrated an improved algorithm

and computer code for QMA into their forecast system.

These new developments will be released to registered

users to undergo testing in an operational environment,

and to seek feedback from key stakeholders.

The FoGSS model has been simplified and improved,

and now requires fewer parameters. Its performance

in a large majority of the 63 catchments we evaluated,

was robust. This included a number of ephemeral and

intermittent catchments. Forecasts are usually skilful only

to short lead times (zero to three months ahead), and

successfully transit to stochastic scenarios thereafter.

Forecasts of cumulative streamflow are usually much

more skilful than forecasts for individual months.

Computer code for the FoGSS model is now with the

Bureau for operational deployment.

Our work is being recognised internationally, with invited

presentations to the APEC Climate Symposium and the

Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute in October 2014,

and a keynote talk at the HEPEX workshop on seasonal

hydrological forecasting in Sweden in September 2015.

NEXT STEPS

In the next few years the Bureau will transition to

an improved seasonal climate forecasting model—

ACCESS-S. Climate model outputs, such as precipitation

and sea surface temperature, are needed as input to

streamflow forecast models. The priority for research will

be to support the transition of the Bureau’s streamflow

forecast service to use the new outputs from ACCESS-S.

Merging statistical and dynamical forecasts improves forecast accuracy

The Bureau operates a seasonal streamflow

forecast service based on a statistical approach.

A new dynamical method has been developed

which uses outputs from a physical climate

model to force conceptual hydrological models.

Both approaches rely on current catchment

conditions and forecasts of future climate

conditions. They also produce probabilistic

forecasts in the form of a large number of

ensemble members, each representing equally

probable future outcomes. A comparison of

overall model skill (or accuracy) scores reveals

that the statistical modelling approach yields

higher forecast skill for some catchments and

seasons, while the dynamical approach yields

higher forecast skill for others.

Given the variable skill of the statistical and

dynamical forecasting approaches, the Bureau

is increasing the overall skill of its service by

taking advantage of their individual strengths.

This is done objectively by weighting and

merging forecasts. Our research has developed

a method of quantile model averaging to

merge the forecasts. It applies averaging to

forecast variable values (quantiles) for a given

cumulative probability (quantile fraction).

The method was evaluated on 52 forecast sites.

It was shown to consistently improve forecast

skill across catchments and seasons, while

maintaining statistical reliability in forecast

uncertainty spread. After testing forecasts in a

registered-user service, the merging method

will be extended to the publicly available

seasonal streamflow forecast service.


BUREAU SPONSOR Ian Prosser

COLLABORATORS Monash University, The University of Melbourne, University of New South Wales,

University of Newcastle, NSW Office of Water, NSW Office of Environment and

Heritage, NSW State Water

PROJECT LEADER: Jai Vaze

Objective: Underpinning Australian Water Resources Assessments, the National Water Account, and sub-annual water resources situation reports with an integrated hydrological modelling system.

INTEGRATED MODELLING SYSTEM FOR WATER RESOURCE ASSESSMENTS AND ACCOUNTS

The Australian Water Resources Assessment modelling system has two key components—a landscape model (AWRA-L) and a river model (AWRA-R). A calibration and validation test bed is used to ensure that the system matches reported/available data. Benchmarking ensures that the system improves estimates after comparing with the real-world observed data across Australia. The Bureau runs an operational system to provide input to Water Resources Assessments and annual National Water Accounts.

Bureau data External data

AWRA-L Landscape

AWRA-R River

AWRA-L AWRA-R

CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION TEST BED

BENCHMARKING

OPERATIONALISATION

Water Resources Assessments

Annual National Water Accounts

CHALLENGE

To support water assessments and accounting for water

resource policy and planning at catchment, regional

and continental scales, Australia needs comprehensive,

consistent and robust information on water generation,

distribution, storage, availability, and use. This information

needs to be produced using all the available data in a

robust, transparent and repeatable manner, to minimise

inconsistency across different scales.

SOLUTION

The Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA)

modelling system has been developed with state-of-

the-art hydrological science and computing technology.

It can quantify water flux and storage terms and their

respective uncertainties using a combination of in-situ

and remotely sensed observations, and model outputs.

The AWRA system is applicable across the continent

and flexible enough to be able to use all available data

sources. It uses novel modelling techniques and tools

to provide nationally consistent and robust estimates of

water fluxes and stores at a 5 km spatial resolution and

daily time-step.


For the first time we have a tool that can account for

important aspects of water resources for all areas

in Australia. The estimates for soil water storage,

streamflow, groundwater recharge and vegetation water

use from the operational system in the Bureau inform

the National Water Accounts and the upcoming Water

in Australia reports. These Bureau products provide a

national water perspective and help Australia understand

the present state of water resources across the continent

and its variation over the last century.

ACHIEVEMENTS

The landscape component of AWRA has been improved

and implemented across continental Australia and tested

against peer models. Our results show that the model

performs better than other continental models and similar

to or better than time-consuming individual lumped

conceptual rainfall-runoff models.

The river system component of AWRA has been

implemented in the entire Murray–Darling Basin and

several other regions. It produces fluxes and stores

associated with different components of regulated and

unregulated river systems and includes surface and

groundwater interactions. Although requiring much less

development effort, model performance was found to be

comparable to the models used by the Murray–Darling

Basin Authority for basin planning in various Murray–

Darling catchments.

We have developed a new version (v5.0) of the AWRA

modelling system that successfully couples the

landscape and river modelling components. The Bureau

is currently implementing the models operationally into a

unified system based on the Python language.

‘We will continue to use evaporative loss

estimates provided by the Australian

Water Resources Assessments in future

hydrodynamic and water-quality modelling

projects.’

CHRIS O’NEILL, Operations Manager and Water Resources Engineer,

HydroNumerics

All components of the system continue to be improved

through calibration and evaluation against a range of

surface and satellite observations. These observations

include in-situ measurements such as river gauges,

irrigation diversion metering, vegetation water-use, flux

towers and soil moisture sensors. Observations also

include satellite measurements of vegetation cover, soil

moisture, and evapotranspiration.

The major achievements for this year include:

• improvements to the vadose zone conceptualisation

in the landscape modelling component and

implementation across the continent;

• preliminary experiments to constrain landscape model

calibration against multiple data sources, rather than

just unregulated river gauges;

• an extended river model that can calculate fluxes and

stores in catchment headwaters; and

• a new conceptual approach for a system calibration

of the river model. This has been implemented

across the Murray–Darling Basin and enables system-

wide optimisation of model parameters to reduce

unaccounted differences.


The Bureau’s operational AWRA modelling system for water assessment and accounts

In the past year the Bureau has implemented an

operational AWRA modelling system (AWRA MS)

that is platform-independent, efficient, functional,

and easy to maintain. The project will conclude

in June 2015 with operational AWRA MS v5.0

functionality in the Python language.

The AWRA MS can now run in three

primary modes:

• interactive: allows simulation, plotting and

benchmarking over arbitrary areas and time

periods from the past century to today;

• calibration: using specified observations,

statistics, time periods and areas; and

• scheduled run: providing automatic updates of

model output with live data feeds.

The AWRA MS underpins Bureau water

information services, which are mandated through

the Water Act 2007, and includes the National

Water Account. It also sets a strong foundation

for the Bureau to develop further enhanced water

information products and services such as the

Water in Australia situation report.

External clients are routinely using outputs from

the AWRA-L (landscape) model component via

a registered user service. The Bureau team is

also working with several State and Australian

Government water and agriculture agencies on

how to best use the model outputs. For example,

AWRA-L-based soil moisture (shallow layer—top

1 m) output is used by the Victorian Government

to summarise climatic conditions and seasonal

climate updates for the State.

The scheduled run lends itself to automatically

updated data services and a website of the

AWRA model inputs and outputs. Outputs from

the AWRA-L model will be available to the wider

community in late 2015 via a new interactive

Bureau website.

NEXT STEPS

Next year we will finalise development for AWRA and

complete the transition of research to the Bureau.

Our priorities are to:

• move to a single code base across CSIRO and

the Bureau to streamline future development and

applications;

• develop case studies that demonstrate the

adoption and value of AWRA for different users and

stakeholders; and

• develop a reliable groundwater recharge database for

AWRA benchmarking.


Through the Water Act 2007, the Bureau of Meteorology has responsibility to compile and deliver

comprehensive information on national water resources in Australia.

Severe droughts and recent extreme climate events in

Australia show the major challenges we face in managing

our water resources. The need to accurately monitor,

assess and forecast the availability, condition and use of

these resources is an ongoing national priority.

To this end more than 200 organisations across Australia

provide data to the Bureau for use in a range of new

services. Vital information on the nation’s water resources

is now integrated, accessible and easy to use. This is

helping policy, infrastructure and operational decision-

makers to respond more quickly and confidently to water

management challenges.

Improving water information outcomes continues to

require substantial innovation. This is achieved through

a world-class alliance between the Bureau and CSIRO:

the Water Information Research and Development

Alliance (WIRADA). WIRADA brings together CSIRO’s

leading expertise in water and information sciences and

the Bureau’s operational role in hydrological analysis

and prediction to deliver value-added water information

products and tools.

WIRADA is transforming how Australia manages its

water resources. Over the five years from 2008 to 2013,

WIRADA delivered much of the scientific and research

innovation required by the Bureau to fulfil its national

water information mandate. Further investment in

WIRADA over the three years from 2013 to 2016 will

allow earlier successful research to be refined, expanded

and delivered to operation. Current research themes

focus on water information systems, water accounting

and assessment, and water forecasting and prediction.

ABOUT THE WATER INFORMATION RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE

GOVERNANCE

WIRADA is established under an umbrella

agreement and is governed by a management

committee. Research is guided by a science plan,

which outlines the scope and themes of research,

and an implementation strategy, which describes

the approaches used to ensure the success of

research, development and implementation.

MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE

The management committee’s key role is to set the

strategic direction for WIRADA. It also approves

the annual research programme and budget, and

oversees the effective delivery of the research.

The committee is comprised of two executive

representatives from the Bureau and two from

CSIRO. The members of the committee in

2014–15 were:

Bureau of Meteorology

Graham Hawke (Committee Chair), Deputy

Director Environment and Research

Dr Dasarath Jayasuriya, Assistant Director, Flood

Forecasting and Warning

CSIRO

Warwick McDonald, Research Director, Water

Resource Management

Dr Francis Chiew, Group Leader, Water Resources

Assessment and Prediction

The committee meets at least quarterly and met

on 25 July 2014, 24 October 2014, 5 February 2015,

23 April 2015 and 18 June 2015.


PERFORMANCE REPORT

FINANCE AND RESOURCES

The 2014–15 investment of $5 million was allocated

to water informatics (10 per cent); water resource

assessment modelling (42 per cent); streamflow

forecasting (42 per cent); and management and

communication (6 per cent). The end-of-year financial

position for WIRADA was an over-expenditure of

$0.016 million.

WIRADA BUDGET PERFORMANCE

The WIRADA budget plan for 2014–15 proposed 16.88

full-time equivalents to be allocated to the four research

projects. Total expended effort for the programme was

16.84 full-time equivalents. In addition, the Bureau

contributed 6.45 full-time equivalents in kind.

DELIVERY AND PRODUCTIVITY

WIRADA had 64 deliverables across five projects

scheduled for completion in 2014–15. Two deliverables

were stopped, based upon changes agreed with project

sponsors. At year’s end, all deliverables had been

submitted, with 59 (95 per cent) of those accepted, and

three under review. All remaining deliverables were due

for completion in July 2015.

Over 2014–15 WIRADA produced:

• 11 journal papers published;

• 1 journal paper in press;

• 27 conference papers; and

• 21 technical reports.

Water informatics

Water resource assessment modelling

Streamflow forecasting

Management and communication

Inve

stm

ent (

$’00

0)

2007–082008–09

2009–102010–11

2011–122012–13

2013–142014–15

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10 000

12 000

Financial year

Budget Bureau expenditureCSIRO expenditure

Total WIRADA output since 2008 is summarised in the table below.

WIRADA outputs 08–09 09–10 10–11 11–12 12–13 13–144 14–154 TOTAL

Journal papers published 17 13 11 19 12 15 11 98

Journal papers in press 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1

Books 1 0 0 1 0 5 0 7

Conference papers 45 32 84 79 30 50 27 347

Published reports 41 26 16 7 10 14 10 124

Unpublished reports 21 41 4 7 1 10 11 95

Total 125 112 115 113 53 94 60

4. The decrease in total outputs for the 2013–16 phase of WIRADA reflects a reduced investment.


STRATEGY KEY PERFORMANCE MEASURE ACHIEVEMENT

1. TARGETED RESEARCH Goal: Design an integrated and coordinated research portfolio that targets

medium to longer-term end-user needs.

1.1 Define research

direction

OBJECTIVE 1: Design a coordinated research portfolio that delivers knowledge,

information and tools to vastly improve water data integration, water resource

assessments, national water accounts, flood forecasts and water availability outlooks.

Confirmation by the Bureau that WIRADA

outputs meet their and their user needs.

ACHIEVED: Over 95 per cent of

WIRADA deliverables have been

accepted by the Bureau.

WIRADA project agreements

refreshed and approved annually by the

management committee.

ACHIEVED: New project agreements

for 2015–16 were all approved by the

Management Committee.

WIRADA communication plan aligned

with Bureau’s product adoption plans.

ACHIEVED: WIRADA communication

activities are a subset of the Bureau’s

broader product adoption.

1.2 Align research

for impact

OBJECTIVE 2: Determine the priority between research investments and develop

path to impact.

WIRADA research transition plans

developed for all projects.

WIRADA communication plan developed,

reviewed quarterly and progressively

being implemented.

ACHIEVED: Research transition plans

embedded in all individual project plans

for 2014–15.

ACHIEVED: The 2014–15 communication

implementation plan was approved in

July 2014, and implementation was

reviewed quarterly.

2. QUALITY

RELATIONSHIPS AND

COLLABORATION

Goal: Develop quality relationships and harness added value from related

research investments, particularly across the CSIRO Land and Water portfolio,

and build enduring partnerships with supporting initiatives.

2.1 Develop relationships OBJECTIVE 1: Define and develop relationships to enhance delivery of the WIRADA

programme and establish the necessary governance arrangements.

WIRADA REPORT CARD 2014–15




Processes for Bureau engagement in

project design, development and delivery

defined, agreed and implemented—

i.e. project sponsor, business lead,

implementation lead, Bureau research

team members.

ACHIEVED: Roles defined and

implemented through project planning

templates and guidance, progress

reporting and review, and deliverable

submission and approval workflows.

Bureau staff actively engaged in the

research design and development. CSIRO

researchers actively participating in R&D

transition processes to operations.

ACHIEVED: Joint project governance

arrangements operate for all research

projects. Dedicated project activities exist

to transfer research to Bureau operations

and information technology systems.

Outcomes specified and monitored

for collaboration with CAWCR, eWater,

and GA.

NOT APPLICABLE: No formal

collaborations in place in 2014–15.

Outcomes specified and monitored for

collaboration with international initiatives

including CUAHSI, OGC and WMO.

ACHIEVED: WIRADA leadership

and milestone completion in

GroundwaterML2.0, WaterML2.0 part 2,

and TimeseriesML international standards

development.

No skills gaps or shortage of capabilities

to meet demand.

ACHIEVED IN PART: Changes to staff

availability affected scope and timing

of deliverables within the Informatics

project.

2.2 Harness collaboration OBJECTIVE 2: Harness and value-add from relevant research investment.

Action plans for research collaboration

implemented with particular regard

to eWater, CAWCR, GA, CUAHSI and

relevant CSIRO Land and Water themes.

ACHIEVED: Water data exchange

standards development centre in

partnership with CUASHI, USGS,

CEH, Kisters, Aquatic Informatics and

Australian research partners.



Jurisdictional and industry participation in

WIRADA research projects and pathways

for adoption specified (including training).

ACHIEVED IN PART: WIRADA scientific

progress presented to influential

end users through meetings of the

Jurisdictional Reference Group on Water

Information. Adoption-related briefings

include the monthly National Climate and

Water Briefing, and water information

stakeholder briefings.

WIRADA research project participation

and leadership in communities of

practice.

ACHIEVED: WIRADA research project

members are active within research

community groups including the OGC

Hydro Domain Working Group, HEPEX1

and OzEWEX2.

Note: 1. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment. 2. Australian Energy and Water Exchange research initiative.

3. QUALITY DELIVERY

AND IMPACT

Goal: Deliver quality science with real-world impact and positive peer

recognition.

3.1 Manage science quality OBJECTIVE 1: Ensure sound science quality management practices maintained.

More than 80 per cent of the WIRADA

deliverables achieved and accepted

to time and budget, with the delayed

deliverables completed within 30 days.

ACHIEVED: All WIRADA deliverables

achieved and 95 per cent accepted for

the full year, with remaining deliverables

due for completion early in the following

quarter.

The majority of WIRADA research

outputs embedded in, or influential on

the implementation of Bureau operational

systems.

ACHIEVED: Short-term water forecasts

released to registered users; Seasonal

streamflow forecasting service

expanding; AWRA version 5 transferred

to the Bureau for use with National Water

Account and Australian Water Resources

Assessment.



WIRADA portfolio subject to periodic

independent peer review and aligned

with formal reviews of the Improving

Water Information Programme and

CSIRO Land and Water.

NOT APPLICABLE: No formal

independent reviews held in 2014–15.

Scientific publication productivity and

citation index at or above the CSIRO

benchmark (two journal papers per

research scientist).

NOT ACHIEVED: WIRADA included 12.3

research scientist equivalents in 2014–15

while 11 journal papers were published.

3.2 Champion, evaluate

and feedback

OBJECTIVE 2: Champion the research outcomes, assess impact and adapt the

WIRADA research programme.

WIRADA research outcomes reported

in media coverage, participation in key

jurisdictional and industry forums and

contribution to international initiatives.

ACHIEVED: 27 conference papers

at 11 key national and international

conferences.

Research impact assessment undertaken

and reported in the WIRADA Annual

Research Report.

ACHIEVED: 2014–15 Annual Report

drafted for approval by the Management

Committee.

A rolling implementation strategy and

investment profile agreed by Bureau

and CSIRO through the WIRADA

management committee.

ACHIEVED: 2015–16 investment

approved in June 2015.

Note: OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium), CUASHI (Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic

Science, Inc), WMO (World Meteorological Organization), USGS (U.S. Geological Survey), CEH (UK Centre for Ecology &

Hyrdrology), CAWCR (Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research)


150429-2


Documents

Water Information Research and Development … away from HTML-linked documents to a web of linked data. WIRADA research used Linked Data technologies to publish current water observations