Water in Israel

The Dry Facts

Dr. Martin Sherman

First of all, my son, see to it that you are always camped upstream … and your adversaries downstream

North American Indian Adage

predominantly oriented towards the authoritative allocation of values of society.

David Easton, A Framework for Political Analysis, p. 50

What distinguishes political interactions from all other kinds of social interactions is that they are

That branch of politics dealing with the authoritative allocation of societal values that pertain to hydrological resources.

Hydro-politics:

‘…under severe shortage the Jordan basin becomes a highly symbolic, contagious, aggravated, intense, salient, complicated, zero-sumzero-sum power and prestige-packed crisis issue, highly prone to conflict and extremely difficult to resolve’

The scarcity of water in the Jordan-Yamuk system has made water supply a strategic issuestrategic issue related to the national securitynational security of the partners to this basin

Nurit Kliot, Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East, London:Routledge, 1994, p.

173.

The worsening situation of water supply among all the co-riparians … is only going to increase the magnitude of the[ir] conflicting interests…

The conflict over the Jordan’s water … has determined the behaviour of the co-riparians for almost forty years.

Possible Alternative and

Unavoidable Imperatives

Possible Alternative and

Unavoidable Imperatives

The Implications of the Peace Process:

Dramatic Changes in Control over Hydrological Resources

The Implications of the Peace Process:

Dramatic Changes in Control over Hydrological Resources

State of the Ground and

Surface Water Sources –

Decreasing Quantities and Deteriorating

Quality

State of the Ground and

Surface Water Sources –

Decreasing Quantities and Deteriorating

Quality

Defining the scale of the Problem-

Natural Sources of Supply vs Demand

Trends

Defining the scale of the Problem-

Natural Sources of Supply vs Demand

Trends

The Middle East as Israel’s Political

Environment

The Middle East as Israel’s Political

Environment

Hydrological Parameters

Political Parameters

Hydropolitical Implications

Israel’s Hydrostrategic Predicament

Domestic Component

“Non-Domestic” Component

Quantity

PriceElastic Supply

Elastic Demand

Price

Inelastic Supply

Price

Quantity

Artificially Produced Water Required to Augment and not to Replace Existing Natural Supplies

Artificially Produced Water Required to Augment and not to Replace Existing Natural Supplies

Quantity

Inelastic Demand

Normal Supply and Demand Situation:Price Can Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Normal Supply and Demand Situation:Price Can Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Inelastic Supply and Demand Situation:Price Cannot Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Inelastic Supply and Demand Situation:Price Cannot Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Declining Natural Supply Due to Salting and Pollution of Wells

Expanding Inelastic (Urban and Industrial) Demand due to Increased Population and Living Standards

Growing Gap between Increasing Inelastic Demand and Declining Inelastic Supply:Entire Quantity of Additional Artificially Produced/Imported Water Available in Foreseeable Future Water Will be Required to Fill This Gap

National Water Carrier

Permissible Annual Extraction from the National Water System

(According to Natural Recharge)

W. Mountain Aquifer (Yarkon Taninim)

Coastal Aquifer

Source

450 - 80

300-350

300-350

Permissible Annual Extraction (According to Natural Recharge)

Mcm

Kinneret: Annual Amounts of Available Water

3682Total

3322004

6472003

9442002

2572001

692000

1771999

1051998

4551997

3361996

3601995

Amount(mcm)Year

Average 368.2

I received Martin Sherman’s letter of 4.4.91 addressed to you

Here are my remarks as you requested:

It is not a bad idea to have a prophet of doom. However there are several errors in the way things are presented, in the style and the immediate short term conclusions. I do not dispute the conclusions as to the future

Mr. Rafael EitanMinister of Agriculture

It is not possible to ensure a permanent supply of water from the major sources above the rather low level of 800 Mcm per annum

2005

2001

713

658

120

120

833

778

Increase

1999

1990

Year

200(42%)

682

482

Municipal Consumption

21(20%)

127

106

Industrial Consumption

Source: Statistical Year Book, Central Bureau of Statistics, 2001, ***********

Municipal and Industrial Consumption 1990-2005 (Mcm)

Municipal and Industrial Consumption 1990-2005 (Mcm)

221(38%)

809

588

Combined Municipal &

Industrial Consumption

Quantity

PriceElastic Supply

Elastic Demand

Price

Inelastic Supply

Price

Quantity

Artificially Produced Water Required to Augment and not to Replace Existing Natural Supplies

Artificially Produced Water Required to Augment and not to Replace Existing Natural Supplies

Quantity

Inelastic Demand

Normal Supply and Demand Situation:Price Can Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Normal Supply and Demand Situation:Price Can Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Inelastic Supply and Demand Situation:Price Cannot Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Inelastic Supply and Demand Situation:Price Cannot Be an Effective Demand Regulating

Device

Declining Natural Supply Due to Salting and Pollution of Wells

Expanding Inelastic (Urban and Industrial) Demand due to Increased Population and Living Standards

Growing Gap between Increasing Inelastic Demand and Declining Inelastic Supply:Entire Quantity of Additional Artificially Produced/Imported Water Available in Foreseeable Future Water Will be Required to Fill This Gap

...even at very high water prices, household consumption of water would hardly decline... Any attempt to lower the domestic water consumption below this level would be rather unsuccessful and its costs in terms of welfare might be quite high. G. Fishelson, Israeli Household Sector Demand for Water, Tel

Aviv: The Armand Hammer Fund for Economic Cooperation in the Middle East, Tel Aviv University. 1993, p. 23.

Inelastic consumption of fresh water will amount to approx. 1200-1650 million c.m. per year (in 2020).

S. Arlosoroff, ‘Managing Scarce Water: Recent Israeli Experience’, Israel Affairs, Vol. 2)1(, 1995, p. 240

Price

Quantity

Reduction of Demand due to Change in Price (Variable)

Q1Q2

P1

P2

Q1

P1

P2

Reduction of Demand due to Change in Income/Tastes (Parameter)

Q2

P1

Q1Q1

P1

Q2

I1

I2 <I1

I1

I2 <I1

Q2

Effect of a Change of a Effect of a Change of a ParameterParameter (Income/Tastes) on Demand (Income/Tastes) on Demand

Inelastic Demand Elastic

Demand

Price

Quantity

Price

Quantity

Price

Quantity

I= IncomeI= Income

Inelastic Demand

Reduction of Demand due to Change in Income/Tastes (Parameter)

Effect of a Change of a Effect of a Change of a VariableVariable (Price) on Demand (Price) on Demand

Elastic Demand

Inelastic Demand

No Reduction of Demand due to Change in Price (Variable)

Annual Domestic per Capita Water Consumption

27

78.3

61.3

135.6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

low lower-middle upper middle upper

Income Level

Do

me

sti

c p

er C

ap

ita

Co

ns

um

pti

on

(c

u. m

.)

Source:World Bank's World Development Report 1996

Non-Agricultural Water Consumption (cu.m. per capita)

42.8123.4

186.2128.9

226.8

1083.4

875

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

310 640 1980 3470 7290 17260 23240

GNP per Capita ($ 1992)

An

nu

al P

er

Cap

ita W

ate

r

Co

nsu

pti

on

(D

om

esti

c p

lus

Ind

ustr

ia l)

IndiaEgypt

Turkey MexicoGreece

Australia

USA

Source:World Bank's World Development Report 1996

Low Lo

wer

Mid

dle

Upper

Mid

dle Hig

h

Urban Water Consumption as a Function of Income

...even at very high water prices, household consumption of water would hardly decline... Any attempt to lower the domestic water consumption below this level would be rather unsuccessful and its costs in terms of welfare might be quite high. G. Fishelson, Israeli Household Sector Demand for Water, Tel

Aviv: The Armand Hammer Fund for Economic Cooperation in the Middle East, Tel Aviv University. 1993, p. 23.

Inelastic consumption of fresh water will amount to approx. 1200-1650 million c.m. per year (in 2020).

S. Arlosoroff, ‘Managing Scarce Water: Recent Israeli Experience’, Israel Affairs, Vol. 2)1(, 1995, p. 240

Overall Water ConsumptionIncl. Supply to Jordan and the Palestinian Authority

Palest. Author

Jordan

Domestic

Industry

Agricul. (marginal)

Agricul. (sweet)

M c

um

18272144

5590

330363

550415

4443

194121

304 505

Recharge **Total Usage

350607

188594

124187

21346

33

724

SalineOverall

Outflows

3334

110

110

Insertion

0

1151550

5890

18176

69

1040

097

18505

Saline *Overall

Extraction

3573

Total

Negev & Arava

Eastern Highland

Kinneret Basin

Carmel

W. Galilee

Yarkon-Taninim

Coast

Area

Source :Hydrologival Service , 2000

)*( Above 400 mg Chlorides )**( Recharge of Coastal Aquifer based on long term average rain fall + runoff from irrigation and leakages estimated at 59 Mcm

1865 Mcm 2132 Mcm 267 Mcm

Total Extraction Total Extraction and Outflowsand OutflowsTotal Recharge Total Recharge

and Net Inflowsand Net Inflows DeficitDeficit

About 10 per cent of the coastal aquifer already exceeds the national limit for chloride salts and by 2010, if pumping continues, 20 per cent of the water will exceed the limit.

N. Kliot,Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East, p. 237

Pollutants are accumulating within the aquifer and wells are being shut down because they contain too much salt, nitrates from fertilizers and

heavy metals from sludge .

Overpumping of water from the coast aquifer has caused a steep reduction in its water level and, as a result, sea water has penetrated into it causing it to become salinated over a 4 km wide belt leading to

the closing of many wells .

Coastal Aquifer Pollution-Chlorides: Anything not blue or

yellow does not conform to standard

Coastal Aquifer Pollution -Nitrates

Anything not blue does not conform to standard

Coastal Aquifer Pollution Chlorides +

Nitrates All red areas do not conform to standard

1976 Green LineJordan Valley

Ben Gurion Airport

Rishon Le’Zion

Water Line

The Mountain Aquifer Recharge, Storage, and Pumping Areas

Recharge Area

Storage Area

Pumping Area

Aquifer

Aquiclude

Mediterranean

Jordan Valley

Subterranean Flow

It is the rain falling on the West Bank that recharges the aquifer; any new wells drilled between the recharge area and the Israeli taps could cut off supply and, by lowering the water tables in the part of the aquifer that extends to the west of the Green Line, allow saline water from greater depths to seep in, permanently ruining what is left” US News & World Report, 16.12.91.

Wells within Israel proper were tapping this water long before the Six-Day War. But as the population and water demand on both sides of the Green Line have grown, the control of the western slopes has attained a new and vital importance for Israel.

Location of wells and springs in districts of the West Bank

http://www.arij.org/pub/water/fig6.jpg

Recharge Areas of the Mountain AquiferRecharge Areas of the Mountain Aquifer

The Mountain Aquifer –Water Movement and Sources of Salination

Direction of Salt Propagation

Pumping Sites

Coastal Plain

Judea & Samaria Highlands

Green Line

Jordan R.

Mediterranean Sea

Mountain Aquifer

Direction of Subterranean Flow of Ground Water in the

Aquifer

Surface Discharge of Aquifer

Direction of Progression of

Salting

Direction of Flow of Pollutants

Recharge Area

Rain Falling on the outcropping aquifer

across the Green Line

To:Itzhak Shamir,

The P.M. OfficeJerusalem

Cc: Mr. Shimon Peres, Deputy P.M. & Finance Minister

Mr. Itzhak Rabin, Minister of Defense

Mr. Moshe Arens, Foreign Minister

A. Katz-Oz, Minister of Agriculture

Water Security for Israel Now and In the Future

14 May, 1989

Enclosed is a memorandum concerning the water supply connected to Judea, Samaria and Gaza.I hereby request to raise this crucially important subject at a meeting of the government or of the cabinet for discussion and decisions

Attached is proposed resolution

To Prevent the Increase of Pumping from Present and Future Sources in Judea, Samaria and Gaza

To Prepare the Legal and Political Basis to Ensure Israeli Control and Management of the Water Sources in Judea and Samaria in Any Conceivable Political Situation in the Future

הסכנה העיקרית [למימי אקוויפר ההר המערבי]

נובעת מהיכולת הדלה של הפלשתינאים לאכוף את ההסכם [לניהול משותף

של המאגר], וכתוצאה ממנה לריבוי קידוחים פראיים ושאיבת יתר

שתדלל את כמות ואיכות המים באקוויפר.

7.11.1999 – הארץ

Recommendation to Barak to Retain Israeli

Control of Water in West Bank

The main danger arises from the

poor ability of the Palestinians to

enforce the agreement [for joint

management of the aquifer], and

the resulting uncontrolled drilling

and over-exploitation that would

degrade the quality and quantity of

the ground water in the aquifer,

Without border changes, a very grave danger to Israel’s principal sources of drinking water will arise.

105.Tahal Report p

Israeli control over most of the water resources must be retained to prevent an increase in the extraction of ground water in Judea & Samaria at the expense of Israeli use of Yarkon Taninim Aquifer.

The Palestinian authority will present demands for enhanced water rights on the basis of geographic and hydrological principles (contribution of water to the source) and socio-economic needs (industrial and agricultural development). The Arabs claim that the ground water in Judea and Samaria is Arab water according the Helsinki Convention and they are therefore entitled to make use of the entire in the aquifer

Tahal Report pp. 103-106

The Israeli interest is to prevent the unregulated increase of the extraction of the ground water in the future, at the expense of the Israel’s water supply, and to prevent the pollution of the aquifer as a result of uncontrolled activities such as untreated flows of sewage and other forms of waste.The Israeli demands will be based on the principle of prior and present use, on the definition of the source according to the location of the springs and not the outcrops of the aquifer, and on the derivation of higher economic benefits (lower production costs)

[This] blatant one-sidedness, which might be rationalized as a reflection of the abnormality of the interim phase, [is] an arrangement which would visibly violate Palestinian sovereignty in the future.

S. Elmusa, Negotiating Water: Israel and the Palestinians,, )Washington: Institute for Palestinian Studies, 1996(, p. 43

[Article 40 of the Oslo II Agreements] empowers Israeli personnel on the Joint Water Committee to inspect (jointly with Palestinians) hundreds of Palestinian wells scattered across the West Bank

102דו"ח תה"ל, ע' 102דו"ח תה"ל, ע'

All the Jewish settlements in the Jordan Valley are supplied by deep wells which were specifically drilled for this purpose. By contrast, most of the Arab agriculture is supplied by shallow wells especially in the areas of Jericho, Ouja, Jiflik and Marj Naja. As a general rule, there has been no effect from the deep wells on the shallow ones, except in the case of the Barda’le where the flow of the springs decreased, and the Arab farmers were compensated by supplies from new wells.

Tahal Report , p.102Tahal Report , p.102

Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of

Israel’s Water

1990-2005Kinneret Water Level

Level on 14.01.08

If the Syrians resettle and industrialize the Golan plateau after Israel’s evacuation, the area might become a source of pollution endangering the water quality of the Sea of Galilee.

The Golan Heights constitute a potential source of pollution of Kinneret (Sea of Galilee). Minhal Ha’Kinneret [the Kinneret Authority] operates to prevent pollution in the Golan Heights, including by means of garbage collection and sewage purification. In the said scenario [i.e. Israeli evacuation] these activities would cease.

... a change in the sovereignty over this area and its return to Syrians ...[who] have not placed the peace issue in a prominent position on their national agenda ...would raise problems of the need to ensure the existing user rights which depend on the Israeli Sea of Galilee inflow ...

E. Kally with G. Fishelson , Water and Peace: Water Resources and the Arab-Israeli Peace Process, )Westport, Conn., 1993(, p. 51.

D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, )New York, 1994(, p. 289.

Tahal Report , p. 113

Background Material for

Peace Talks between Israel

and Syria: The Current

Situation and Risk Analysis

In our estimation the Israeli water

system will be able to withstand

such a [worst case] scenario; and

accordingly will have to reach a

satisfactory agreement with the

Syrians ; or refrain from evacuating

the Golan

SecretMekoroth Ltd

The water sources on the Golan [are] a critical, vital and even a fateful matter in terms of the future of the State [of Israel]. I have to say that I am not aware of any replacement for this water.

Ya’acov Tsur, Minster of Agriculture under both Rabin and Peres, Jerusalem Post, 27. 12. 1995.

If the Syrians settle hundreds of thousands of people on the Golan, without appropriate means for treating the sewage and other sources of pollution, it will mean the end of the Kinneret – beyond any shadow of a doubt.

Israel Water Commissioner Testimony before Knesset State Control Committee 3.1.2000.

Solutions, Partial-Solutions and Non-Solutions

International Cooperation and Regional Solutions

Reduction of Fresh Water Supply to Agriculture

Use of Recycled Sewage Water

Artificial Production of Water and the Imperative of Large-Scale Desalination

D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, )New York, 1994(, p. 206.

It also introduced efficient methods of irrigation, including sprinkler and especially drip irrigation. Consequently, output increased greatly, and farming was transformed from a subsistence enterprise to a commercial industry.

It introduced modern technology, including mechanization, precision tillage, pest control, plastic covering of crops for temperature control, high yielding varieties, postharvest processing of produce, marketing, and export outlets.

The Israeli occupation changed local agriculture profoundly.

M. Kantor ‘Water in Israel: A View Towards the Beginning of 2000’, Research Paper No. 9504, Rehovot: The Center for Agricultural Economic Research , 1995. )Hebrew(; I. Spharim, S. Shalhevet, Nava Haruvy, Israeli Agriculture in a Changing Environment, Bet Dagan, Rishon Le’Zion: Dept. of Rural Development Economics, Volcani Center, Ministry of Agriculture, July 1999.

Proposals calling for the drastic reduction of agriculture Proposals calling for the drastic reduction of agriculture often rest on the claim that this activity constitutes a very often rest on the claim that this activity constitutes a very small percentage (around 3%) of the GNP. However, in small percentage (around 3%) of the GNP. However, in practice, a far higher economic price would probably be practice, a far higher economic price would probably be incurred. For the reduction in agriculture would hit not incurred. For the reduction in agriculture would hit not only the livelihood of the farmers alone, but also all those only the livelihood of the farmers alone, but also all those industries that supply them with “pre- and post-harvest” industries that supply them with “pre- and post-harvest” goods and services (or industries “up-stream” goods and services (or industries “up-stream” “downstream” of agriculture proper) (I. Spharim et alia). “downstream” of agriculture proper) (I. Spharim et alia). These include the chemical industry (fertilizers, These include the chemical industry (fertilizers, insecticides etc.); packaging materials (plastic, paper, insecticides etc.); packaging materials (plastic, paper, cardboard etc.); engineering and machinery (manufacture cardboard etc.); engineering and machinery (manufacture and maintenance of equipment for irrigation, cultivation and maintenance of equipment for irrigation, cultivation and harvesting ); transport (land, sea and air); and and harvesting ); transport (land, sea and air); and processing plants (fruit juices, vegetable extracts, puree, processing plants (fruit juices, vegetable extracts, puree, wineries etc.). Reducing the scale of agriculture implies wineries etc.). Reducing the scale of agriculture implies reducing the scale of these industries’ operations as well reducing the scale of these industries’ operations as well

Another serious risk is that agricultural produce not grown by Israeli farmers may be grown by Palestinian Palestinian farmers using untreated sewage.farmers using untreated sewage. M. Kantor warns that that it would be impossible to control such a phenomenon, which would be likely to develop into a severe health hazard (Kantor, pp. 9-10).

Reducing water to Israeli farmers would not reduce not reduce demand for agricultural producedemand for agricultural produce. It is thus highly likely that this demand will be supplied, at least partially, by this demand will be supplied, at least partially, by Arab farmers in the Palestinian areas, many of who draw Arab farmers in the Palestinian areas, many of who draw their irrigation waters from the same sourcestheir irrigation waters from the same sources which supply Israeli farmers. Thus, water saved by reduced supply to Israeli growers, may well be used by Palestinian growers, who by and large use less water-efficient use less water-efficient irrigation techniquesirrigation techniques than their Israeli counterparts. Accordingly unless Israel can control the use of water by farmers in Palestinian controlled territories it is likely that overall reduction in agricultural activity will be less than expected and that relatively more water will be required to sustain it.

Significant portions of the water utilized by agriculture that are not included in the NWS (such in the Arava, Jordan Valley and Bet Shean area) are not currently available for urban and industrial use, since no conveyance system exists to bring them to the metropolitan urban centers. Thus cutting back on the supply of these waters to farmers will not produce a single additional liter of water for urban use in the short to medium run - even if the construction of such infrastructure were deemed economic relative to the option of desalination, which is doubtful.

Cost of conveyance and storage may result in a heavy economic burden on the country. Much of the agricultural activity is located far from the urban centers which produce large quantities of sewage. Thus its use entails high conveyance costs. The need to store the sewage results in additional potential damage, which includes increased salinity due to evaporation in storage facilities, secondary development of harmful micro-organisms in the stored treated sewage, and the increased blockages in sprinklers and drip irrigation systems, making careful prior filtration necessary.

Use of recycled waste also impairs agricultural yields (some experiments seem to indicate that the decrease may be a severe as 25% relative to those attained with fresh water irrigation) and limits the number of crops that can be cultivated.

Kantor warns that the use of recycled waste water must be prohibited in the entire coastal plain up to the foothills of the highlands to its east He points out that vegetables and fruit with edible skins should not be permitted to be irrigated with recycled waste-water (Kantor p. 7)

Recycled water can also cause the ruin of agricultural land because of its high salinity resulting in significant damage to the soil. It can also cause the formation of impervious surface crusting and result in impaired germination and soil ventilation The serious deterioration of the farmlands of the Jezriel valley is an example of the consequences that can arise as a result of extensive use of recycled waste-water for irrigation (Zaslavsky, 2000, pp.40-1).

Recycled water after the usual secondary purification treatment (i.e. of biological but not chemical pollutants) prevalent today has high content of salt and contains other dissolved substances and apparently even traces of heavy metals and carcinogenic materials (Zaslavsky, 1999, p.41). As a result, the use of this water in areas from which it can reach ground water will result in severe damage to drinking water supplies (even “certain ruin [sic]” according to Zaslavsky - 2000, p.41) .

Damage to

ground waterDamage to Soil

Quality

Reduction of Yields

Restrictions as

what crops can

be grown and

where

High costs

D. Zaslavsky, Sustainable Development of the Water System and the Fate of Agriculture, Haifa: The Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, The Technion, 1999; and The State of Water in Israel )Pnei Ha’Mayim(, Haifa: Technion, 2000.M. Kantor ‘Water in Israel: A View Towards the Beginning of 2000’, Research Paper No. 9504, Rehovot: The Center for Agricultural Economic Research , 1995. )Hebrew(.

The Sovereignty of States and the Anarchy of the International System

… the only bond of union that endures [among nations is] the absence of all clashing interests.

Salisbury, quoted in H. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 5th edition, )New York, 1967(.

For what is a binding peace [agreement] among sovereign nations when one of the attributes of sovereignty is the right to change one’s mind?

H. Kissinger, White House Years, )Boston, 1979(, p. 346.

The major problem is not [to sign] an agreement, but to uphold the agreement in practice. The number of agreements violated by the Arabs is no less than the number they have honored. Shimon Peres, Tomorrow is Now, ' Jerusalem: Keter, p 255 Even if the Palestinians agree that their state have no army or weapons, who can guarantee that a Palestinian army would not be mustered later to encamp at the gates of Jerusalem and the approaches to the lowlands? And if the Palestinian state would be unarmed, how would it block terrorist acts perpetrated by extremists, fundamentalists or irredentists?

Shimon Peres The New Middle East, New York: H. Holt, 1993, p.169

Sovereignty has ... had a profound impact on the international system.... Because there are no powerful centralizing organizations in the system, the system’s structure is largely anarchical. Countries pursue their usually selfish national interests in largely unregulated competition with other countries. When there are disputes, there are no authoritative rules or judicial bodies with the power to enforce rulings... [Although] it is declining ...[this] does not detract... from the pivotal past, present, and probable future role of sovereignty in determining the authority structure of the international system.

J. Rourke, International Politics on the World Stage, 5th edition )Guilford, Conn., 1995(, p. 62.

... regional cooperation and mutual trust are not among the prominent features of [the Middle East... [T]he states of the region do not generally cooperate with each other - whether on water or other issues. The only case of cooperation in the Middle East is the cooperation among the Arab states in creating various coalitions in their war against Israel. Apart from this there is no significant cooperation between the states comprising the Arab League. Indeed, hostile relations, which sometimes result in bloodshed and even war, prevail between [many] Arab states. As for cooperation between the Arab states and the three non-Arab states in the Middle East (Iran, Turkey and Israel), there has never been in the past nor is there in the present any cooperation in economic or other matters.

Arnon Soffer, Rivers of Fire pp. 218 & 231.

Many of the hostilities that have occurred in the region over water seem to have come about precisely because the water destined for a downstream user was controlled by an upstream party. Many “co-operative” projects might only provide additional opportunity for suspicion and potential for contention.

A. Wolf, Hydropolitics Along the Jordan River: Scarce Water and its Impact on the Arab-Israeli Conflict, (New York, 1995), pp. 109-10.

Financial disputes have been an irritant in joint international projects around the world, even when the countries involved are on good terms; they are likely to be all the worse when the partners start out being suspicious of each other… Such projects will not cement the recent [Oslo] peace accord. They are almost sure to be accompanied by dispute-provoking cost over runs which will strain relations between the partners. P. Clawson, ‘Mideast Economies after the Israel-PLO Handshake’,

Journal of International Affairs, Summer, 1994), pp.150, 154.

... the Iranian experience should teach Israel to go slow, and be wary about larger joint projects which might make Israel, or important parts of Israel subject to sudden cutoff, or subject Israel to blackmail.

E. Kanovsky, in a hearing before the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress on security and economic trends in the Middle East held on 21.10. 1997.)

Dependency violates the “sovereignty imperative” and is “a geopolitical limitation which sovereign nations only reluctantly take upon themselves”

N. Kliot, Water Recourses and Conflict in the Middle East, New York: Routledge, 1994, pp. 133, 204.

The “reluctance [of sovereign states] to place themselves in a state of [hydrological] dependency upon the continuing goodwill of an outside power with which their nations had a long and not entirely happy relationship …”

D. Hille,l Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East, New

York : Oxford University Press, 1994, p. 246

Storage volume will be no less necessary when the Storage volume will be no less necessary when the quantity of desalinated water increases. The demand for quantity of desalinated water increases. The demand for water varies seasonally. In order to operate the water varies seasonally. In order to operate the desalination equipment continuously, a storage volume of desalination equipment continuously, a storage volume of approximately 20% of the overall annual output is approximately 20% of the overall annual output is required.required.

D. Zaslavsky, Sustainable Development of the Water System and the Fate of Agriculture, Haifa: The Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, The

Technion, 1999 p. 37 [

Since a desalinization plant, to achieve maximal Since a desalinization plant, to achieve maximal efficiency, must be operated continuously throughout the efficiency, must be operated continuously throughout the year, whereas water demand fluctuates seasonally, some year, whereas water demand fluctuates seasonally, some system of storage will be necessarysystem of storage will be necessary. ... underground storage is preferable to surface storage, . ... underground storage is preferable to surface storage, since it entails smaller losses due to evaporation and since it entails smaller losses due to evaporation and seepageseepage D. Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the

Quest for Peace in the Middle East, )New York, 1994(, p255 .

Tahal Report, p. 105Tahal Report, p. 105

A situation in there is no cooperation and no border changes constitutes a grave threat to Israel’s principal sources of drinking water. Even when desalination attains considerable dimensions, the importance of the Yarkon Taninim Aquifer, which will serve as seasonal and long-term reservoir, will not decrease

Place Trust in Arabs Honoring Contractual Commitments :

Accept Dependency on Arab Good Faith for Continued Water Supplies

Refrain from Placing Trust in Arabs Honoring Contractual Commitments:Endeavor to Attain Independence on Arab Good Faith for Continued Water Supplies

Israel Violates Contractual Commitments

Israel Honors Contractual Commitments

.

The feasibility of this option is contingent upon the amount of trust Israeli policy makers feel they can place in the Arabs.

Option I

Option III

The feasibility of this option is contingent upon the assessment of Israel’s ability to withstand international pressures (censure & sanction) that would be likely to follow it.

The feasibility of this option is contingent upon the assessment of Israel’s ability to cope with the grave problems of energy consumption, storage volume, and restructuring of infrastructure

Option II

The Parameters that Determine the Major Classes of The Parameters that Determine the Major Classes of Israeli Hydro-Strategic OptionsIsraeli Hydro-Strategic Options

Compliance with the withdrawal implicit in the Oslo process, and planning future development of the county’s water system on continued reliance on natural sources no longer under its control, in the hope that its Arab counter-signatories (and its potential successors) will indeed continue to respect Israel’s interests - even if these clash with their own.

Compliance with the withdrawal called for in the Oslo process, and re-structuring the entire water system so as to make Israel independent of all water sources under foreign and potentially hostile control.

Non- compliance with the withdrawal called for in the Oslo process, either by (a) bilateral negotiated agreement (??); or (b) by unilateral repudiation.

If hydrological considerations alone are taken into account, it would not be rational for Israel to violate its contractual obligations if it believed that the Arabs would honor theirs

Irrational ChoiceIrrational Choice

Arid Climate: Dependence for Water Supply of

Vagaries of Weather

Arid Climate: Dependence for Water Supply of

Vagaries of Weather

Insufficient Natural Supplies of Water to Satisfy Growing Inelastic Demand:

Dwindling Quantities and Deteriorating

Quality Threaten Reliability of Supply even to Urban and

Industrial Consumers

Insufficient Natural Supplies of Water to Satisfy Growing Inelastic Demand:

Dwindling Quantities and Deteriorating

Quality Threaten Reliability of Supply even to Urban and

Industrial Consumers

Imperative of Artificial Water

Generation to Free National Water

Supply from Dependency of Weather: Most Feasible Means

Desalination

Imperative of Artificial Water

Generation to Free National Water

Supply from Dependency of Weather: Most Feasible Means

Desalination

The Arab-Israeli Peace Process

as a Hydro-Strategic

Constraint: Territorial

Concessions Entail Loss of Israeli Control

over up to 65% of Available Natural Water Supplies

The Arab-Israeli Peace Process

as a Hydro-Strategic

Constraint: Territorial

Concessions Entail Loss of Israeli Control

over up to 65% of Available Natural Water Supplies

Option I: Continued Dependency on Sources Transferred

to Arab Control: Risk Intentional of Unintentional

Deprivation

Option I: Continued Dependency on Sources Transferred

to Arab Control: Risk Intentional of Unintentional Deprivation

Option II: Endeavor to

Attain Independence of

Sources Transferred to

Arab Control

Option II:Endeavor to

Attain Independence of

Sources Transferred to Arab Control

Option III: Non-Implementation

of Territorial Concessions and

Repudiation of Contractual

Obligations : Risk International Censure

and Sanction

Option III:Non-Implementation

of Territorial Concessions and

Repudiation of Contractual

Obligations : Risk International Censure

and Sanction Challenges/Difficulties

(1) Energy Requirements(2) Adequate Storage Facilities(3) Restructuring of Conveyance and Delivery Infrastructure

Challenges/Difficulties

(1) Energy Requirements(2) Adequate Storage Facilities(3) Restructuring of Conveyance and Delivery Infrastructure

Increased Severity of

Challenges and Difficulties

Increased Severity of

Challenges and Difficulties