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Water for the Future
Martin ZehrLynn Montgomery
Lora LuceroElaine Hebard
Water is Over Appropriated
• Must Have Either:
I. A Net Increase in Water Supply by Importing, and Decreasing Evaporation Losses or,
II. A Net Decrease in Water Demand by Reducing Users, Conserving, and Restricting the Number of New Users.
Phoenix Scenario Development Committee of the Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly
Primary Concerns
• Depletion of the aquifer has significant ramifications for the future;
• Existing supply of ground and surface water is insufficient to meet demand;
• Water quality of Rio Grande must be improved to provide suitable drinking water.
Phoenix SDC Was Directed to:
County PopulationHistory and Forecasts for Counties in MRCOG Region
Year Bernalillo County Sandoval County Torrance County Valencia County Southern Santa Fe Regional Total
1950 145,673 12,438 8,012 13,530 200 179,853
1960 262,199 14,201 6,497 16,146 263 299,306
1970 315,774 17,492 5,290 20,451 296 359,303
1980 419,700 34,799 7,491 30,769 1,185 493,944
1990 480,577 63,319 10,285 45,235 3,700 603,116
2000 556,678 89,908 16,911 66,152 9,065 738,714
2005 595,954 108,538 19,523 76,512 11,363 811,890
2010 631,839 126,294 21,690 86,708 13,771 880,302
2015 666,114 144,377 23,475 97,330 16,206 947,502
2020 698,832 162,409 24,979 108,064 18,538 1,012,822
2025 729,750 179,998 26,318 118,593 20,579 1,075,238
Sources: US Bureau of Census, UNM-BBER, and MRGCOGForecasts for Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance, and Valencia Counties were produced by the University of New Mexico Bureau of Business and Economic Research (UNM-BBER). The forecast for southern Santa Fe County was generated by MRCOG.
Population Continues to Increase
Urban Development Year Urban Area
(acres) % growth from 1935
% growth from previous period
1935 4,372.205 N/A N/A
1951 15,397.889 252 252
1973 49,746.052 1,038 223
1991 84,889.336 1,842 71
Sp
anis
h
Set
tlem
ent
1950sdrought
Average rainfall 14.5 inches/year
Chaco Canyon abandoned
Mesa Verde abandoned
BC AD
Rainfall and Culture Over 2000 Years in New MexicoTree rings from El Malpals National Monument (Henri Grissino-Mayer)
What if “drought” is more consistent with regional weather patterns.
Albuquerque area growth – 1935 to 1991
Subsidence causes unintended consequences
Destruction of roads and infrastructure
Costs $$$ not budgeted for repairs
Aquifer Schematic
Aquifer levels impact on surface water flow
Large scale industrial water users and resultant population increase lead to aquifer depletion and danger of subsidence
INCOME The final agricultural sector output from New Mexico farmers and ranchers rose to over $2.3 billion in 2001, up 6.6 percent from 2000. Crop output increased 7.3 percent to $538 million and livestock output increased 6.6 percent to almost $1.7 billion.
http://nmdaweb.nmsu.edu/stat.html
Our Farmers Support Us,
We Should Support Them
Unchecked housing expansion in previously undeveloped areas taxes water supply.
Los Alamos National Laboratories
Pollutants from nuclear waste disposal and naturally occurring arsenic levels endanger the quality of water
from the Rio Grande
Preferred Alternatives
• Expand Definition of Watershed Plans A-66
• Importation of Water A-69
• Urban Conservation A-18
• Growth Management A-52
• Water Quality A-47