Water Conflict and Water Conflict and CooperationCooperation

State of the WorldState of the World

WorldwatchWorldwatch

Water ManagementWater Management

Domestic use Agriculture Hydropower generation Recreational use Ecosystems International boundaries Esthetic & spiritual

interests

What are some of the competing interests that confront water management?

© Digital Vision

© Digital Vision

Water and DisputesWater and Disputes

Water is never the single--and hardly ever the major--cause of conflict.

But it can exacerbate existing political, ethnic or religious tensions

It can also provide a basis for opening dialogue and negotiations

Between 1945 and 1999 cooperative events between nations out-numbered conflicts by more than two to one

© Edwin Huffman/World Bank

Water and DialogueWater and Dialogue

Negotiations provide productive pathways for: Building confidence Developing cooperation Preventing conflict Create openings for further dialogue

How can water negotiations serve as a conflict-prevention strategy?

© morgueFile

DisputesDisputes

What are three key issues in water disputes?

1. Quantity

2. Quality

3. Timing

© FAO

© FAO

© stock.xchng

QuantityQuantity

1. Competing claims for a scare resource.

Water allocation for different users and uses such as ecosystem needs and individual livelihoods can lead to disputes

© WHO © stock.xchng© stock.xchng

QualityQuality

2. Unclean water poses serious threats to human and ecosystem health

Pollution and excessive levels of salt, nutrients or solids make water inappropriate for drinking, industry and even agriculture.

Degradation becomes a source of conflict between those who cause it and those affected by it.

© digital vision

© digital vision

TimingTiming

3. Timing of water flow is often critical and operational patterns of dams have competing interests

In winter dams may release water upstream for hydropower

In summer water is needed downstream for irrigation

© digital vision

Spatial LevelsSpatial Levels

International Level: Transboundary waters can cause pervasive tensions resulting in:

Dynamics of conflict can vary depending on the geographic scale

degraded political relations

inefficient water management

ecosystem neglect© Robert Simmon/NASA

Spatial LevelsSpatial Levels

National Level:

Disputes between provinces, ethnic or religious groups, or economic sectors have a high potential for violence

National sovereignty issues can inhibit international involvement © NASA

Spatial LevelsSpatial Levels

Local Level:

Likelihood and intensity of violence increases as geographic sale drops

Loss of water-based livelihoods (loss of irrigation water or freshwater ecosystems) can lead to migrations to cities or neighboring countries

© UN

Spatial LevelsSpatial Levels

Local Level:

Local core values held for generations are threatened by new demands for cities and hydropower

Disputes over water service management arise between communities and state authorities

© USDA

InterdependenceInterdependence

Basins bounded by 2 or more countries cover 45.3% of earth

Host about 40% of the world’s population

Account for 60% of global river flow © Stock.xchng

Why are international basins so critical to global security?

International BasinsInternational Basins

Database: Basins at Risk

Mollewide Projection

Oregan State University

October 2000

International BasinsInternational Basins

1978 214 international basins

Today 263 international basins due

to breakup of the Soviet Union and Balkan states, as well as better digital mapping technology

Examples Nile—shared by 10 countries Danube—shared by 17

countries© NASA

Sharing the BasinSharing the Basin

“Danube Basin Analysis (WFD Roof Report 2004)”

CooperationCooperation

Acute Conflict: 42 acute disputes in last 50 years (30 involved Israel, violence which ended in 1970)

Treaties: 400 treaties negotiated and signed Conflict events: 507 conflict related events Cooperation: 1,228 cooperative agreements

Does the rate of cooperation over international resources outweigh the incidence of acute conflicts?

ViolenceViolence

62% of all events are only verbal and more than two thirds of these have no official sanction

Despite fiery rhetoric of politicians most actions taken over water are mild.

© IRIN

Good and BadGood and Bad

Despite lack of violence, water acts as both an irritant and a unifier.

water can make good relations bad and bad relations worse

international waters can unify basins with relatively strong institutions

CooperationCooperation

Cooperative events cover a broad spectrum of issues:

water quantity quality economic development hydropower joint management

© Getty Images

Dispute ResolutionDispute Resolution

Mekong Committee functioned

during Viet Nam War (Cambodia,

Laos, Thailand, Viet Nam)

Israel and Jordan held secret talks about the Jordan River during the 1950s that lasted until a peace treaty was signed in the 1990s

Indus River Commission survived 2 major wars between India and Pakistan

Negotiations often continue despite wars over other issues

© stock.xchng

African NegotiationsAfrican Negotiations

All 10 Nile basin riparian countries are negotiating basin development despite fiery rhetoric

Southern Africa river basin agreements were made even during apartheid and civil wars

© GRID/UNEP

Conflict ResolutionConflict Resolution

Without institutions to resolve conflict, unilateral action can heighten tensions and regional instability, requiring decades to resolve.

Indus treaty took 10 years of negotiations

the Ganges 30 years

the Jordan 40 years

Management MechanismsManagement Mechanisms

1. Provide forums for joint negotiations, thus ensuring that all existing and potentially conflicting interests are taken into account

2. Consider different perspectives and interests to reveal new management options and win-win solutions

How can cooperative management mechanisms reduce conflict potential?

© stock.xchng

Management MechanismsManagement Mechanisms

3. Build trust and confidence through collaboration and joint fact-finding

4. Make decisions that are much more likely to be accepted by all stakeholders, even if consensus cannot be reached © stock.xchng

Worldwatch InstituteWorldwatch Institute

www.worldwatch.org

Further information and references for the material in this presentation are available in the Worldwatch Institute’s publication “State of the World 2005”

This presentation is based on Chapter 5 “Managing Water Conflict and Cooperation” authored by:

Aaron T. Wolf, Annika Kramer, Alexander Carius, and Geoffrey D. Dabelko