Water Balances and Climate ChangeWater Balances and Climate Change

Bruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCICBruce Peachey, P.Eng., MCICPresident, New Paradigm Engineering President, New Paradigm Engineering

Ltd.Ltd.U of A - Chem Eng Student NightU of A - Chem Eng Student Night

March 23, 2004March 23, 2004

Areas to Cover

Chemical Engineers and Climate Change Global Water Balance North American Water Use and Impacts Evidence for Regional Water Impacts Evidence for Local Water Impacts Our Role for the Future

Chemical Engineers & Climate Change Edmonton Section meetings on

Climate Change• Jan, 1998 - Kyoto impacts discussed• May, 2000 - Proposed 7 potential sources of

climate change• Feb, 2002 - New IPCC data review supported

Human Enhanced Water Evaporation (HEWE) as the most likely

2002 Discussion Paper Circulated Dec, 2003 Presentation to CMOS

Water Balances and Climate Change Familiar to chemical engineers Climate changes mainly water and energy

• Air can’t carry much energy without water Proposed that Human Enhanced Water

Evaporation (HEWE) rather than GHG Warming is the main cause of Climate Change

Water Balances can potentially be used to prove which theory is correct

Global Water Cycle (km3 x 103/yr = Tt/yr)

Land Ocean

11171

40

40

425 385

Source: Global Warming – The Complete Briefing – John Houghton

Latest Data Indicates Globally atmospheric GHGs are up Globally average temperatures are higher

• Northern Hemisphere higher especially last 10 years• Night-time lows increasing more than day-time highs• More over land than over oceans. • Cooling in some areas of southern hemisphere and

Antarctica Growing Season – Increase by 1 to 4 days per

decade in northern hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates Precipitation increases (5-10%) over most

land areas in mid to high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere

• No observed increase in southern hemisphere

• Correlated to increases in clouds and extreme weather.

Heavy precipitation events increased in northern latitudes

• Likely a 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in last 50 years in Northern Hemisphere

Latest Data Indicates Atmospheric Water Vapour Increased

in Northern Hemisphere by several percent per decade

Cloud cover in Northern Hemisphere increased by 2%•Positively correlated with decrease in diurnal temperature range (night-time warming)

Latest Data Indicates Sea-Ice in Northern Hemisphere

decreasing• No trends in Antarctic sea ice apparent.

Non-polar glaciers – Widespread retreat except in coastal areas.

El Nino Events – More frequent, persistent and intense over the last 30 years

The Big Question?

Where did all the extra water come from???????

•GHG Warming of Oceans?• HEWE on Land?

• Somewhere else???

Water Balance just GHG Warming?

Land Ocean

11171

40

40

425 385

+4

+42 - 38+4

+4Oceans should be affected the most

Closing the Balance with HEWE

Land Ocean

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40

40

425 385

+4

+4

Land should be affected the most

World Precipitation Trend = +2% avg since 1900; = +2000 Gt/yr avg over 100 years

Source: IPCC Scientific Report

Annual Global Water Withdrawals

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Cu

bic

Kil

om

eter

s (G

t/yr

)

Source: Scientific American – February 2001 – Peter H. Gleick

Original Chart showed cubic miles x 4.6 to get cubic kilometers

=+2% Increase avg precip over the last 100 years

Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Water Vapour Concentrations1981-1994Oltmans and Hoffman, Nature, 375 (1995)

Altitude (km)

Conc (ppm) Avg Annual Increase (%)

10-12 59.2 1.03

12-14 11.88 0.49

14-16 4.66 0.54

16-18 3.87 0.73

18-20 3.85 0.84

20-22 4.07 0.54

22-24 4.21 0.38

24-26 4.29 0.34

How Does HEWE Theory Fit the Facts? Source is anthropogenic and increasing Should cause increased warming in

cold areas. Should cause increased rainfall and

severity of storms Unusual patterns Increases night time low temperatures

due to day/night cycling as dew point is raised

610

30

710

580

128 14

709

174

328

World Water Withdrawals = 3414 Gt/yr + 25% evap. from damsSource: World Resources Institute 2003

Feeding Antarctic Ice Loss?Antarctic Peninsula - Sciam Dec’02 “The only part of Antarctica

certain to have been affected by global warming”Irrigation In SA

•Feeding energy and water onto the peninsula?•Only 1000km and carried by prevailing winds and ocean currents

No Effect - Stable for 15 million years

Ice sheet has disappeared at least once in 600,00 yrs

North American Water Use

Mainly Used for Power Generation in the U.S. and Canada; followed by Irrigation

Patterns of water use vary by region Amount of Natural Renewable Water

Resource Withdrawals• Canada - 1.4%• United States - 25.6%• Mexico - 18.1%• (NB Not including water reservoir evaporation)

47%

33%

11%7% 1%

PowerIrrigationPublicIndustryLivestock

U.S. Water Use - 1995Total = 556 Gt/yr = 12% of World Use

Regional Indicators of Water Impacts Weekend rainfall (Cerveny and Balling 1998)

• Rainfall 22% higher on Saturdays on East Coast• Lowest on Sunday to Tuesday

Workweek temperature effects (Forster and Solomon 2003)

• Diurnal Temperature Ranges weekly variations Three days after 9/11 - Lower night time

temperatures• Attributed to radiative impacts of airplane

contrails• However, other things were also not happening

The Heat Pipe Effect

Water added in Hot Dry Areas

Water givesUp Heat and

FallsIn Cold Areas

Day/Night Cycles

Water Transport

Workweek Effects - Forster and SolomonSciam September 16, 2003

Red - Night-time temperatures lower on weekdaysBlue - Night-time temperatures lower on weekends

Time delay in the heat pipe?

Air can travel 1000’s km/day. Water moleculeon average spends10 days in the air

Work Week Water Pulse?

Canadian Water Use - 1996Total = 44.72 Gt/yr = 1.4% of Supply

64%14%

9%

12% 1%

Thermal Power

Manufacturing

Agriculture

Municiple

Mining

NB Hydroelectric supplies 62% of energy demand

Water Withdrawals by Province (Gt/yr)

3.53.8

28.3

6.5

2.8

Atlantic

Quebec

Ontario

Prairies

B.C.

NB Does not include evaporation from hydroelectric reservoirs

Feeding Energy to Melt the Glaciers

& Warm/Dry Out the Prairies?

N.B. 44% of Alberta’s and 30% of B.C.’s water use on an annual basis is forIrrigation - But all of it is emitted in the summer months! 5 Gt/yr

Summer Water Pulse?

1 tonne of water vapour condensing to water can melt 6.7 tonnes of snow or ice

River Flows Out= 131 Gt/yr

River Flows In= 70 Gt/yr

Evaporation= 261 Gt/yr

Precipitation= 337 Gt/yr

*Groundwater Recharge????= 15 Gt/yr

Net SurfaceRunoff Added

= 61 Gt/yr

Alberta Water Balance?

Alta Water Use: 9.4 Gt/yr + res evap 16+% of Avail

•80% of Avail in North•<20% of use is in North•Alta uses 50% of waterIn S. Saskatchewan River

Source: Alta Env David Trew March 22, 2004

Local Effects? - Lightning “Bright Sky, Dirty City?” Sciam May 2001 Increased lightning

in areas centered on large refining complexes.

Attributed to pollution seeding cloud formation

But…Largest emission from refineries is water vapour

Is this Aerosols or Water???

This is definitely water!

Do nuclear plants cause lightning as well?

The Balance of Evidence - Says... Human Enhanced Water Evaporation

(HEWE) SHOULD BE THE major factor in Climate Change Equation

GHG impacts may still be a concern and are an indicator of energy waste so should still be reduced by reducing energy use

Finding the right solutions means addressing the right problem.

HEWE – Implications Agriculture Industry

• Improvements needed in irrigation practices

• Select crops that suit the local climate

Electrical Power Industry• Reduce power use; S/D nuclear (206 vs. 140 l/kw-hr)• Increase efficiency from 40% to 80% with cogen• Reduce Water Use

Some responses to GHG make HEWE worse• Dams, water transfers south, biomass energy,

nuclear power

Does It Matter Which Theory is Right? Likely no theory is entirely right. Best strategy is to find “Robust

Solutions” which:• Minimize Water added to

atmosphere• Reduce Energy Waste Fossil Fuel

Consumption Reduce GHG emissions

• Create Wealth (improve standard of living - current and future)

New Paradigms? Not Really Sustainable Development is based on:Reduce

• Waste of energy, water and other resources on trivial wants so they are there when future generations need them.

Reuse – Resources more than once Recycle – If you can’t do the first two. Replace – Feel good placebo in last place. Wasting

“Renewable” Power is still a waste of resources • Is it really green?

The Challenge for ChemE’s Lobby to get someone studying Human

Enhanced Water Evaporation impacts on climate and local weather (CMOS?)

Encourage discussing HEWE in public forums or with governments

Ensure the right actions are taken rather than the politically correct or expedient ones

"Difference of opinion leads to inquiry, and inquiry leads to truth" - Thomas Jefferson 

Let’s Keep the Water Balanced!

Contact InformationNew Paradigm Engineering Ltd.10444 - 20 Avenue Edmonton, AlbertaCanada T6J 5A2

tel: 780.448-9195email: bruce@newparadigm.ab.ca

web: www.newparadigm.ab.ca