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Washoe County TodayApril 20, 2012
Brian KaiserHousing and Real Estate Analyst
Center for Regional StudiesUniversity of Nevada, Reno
Housing Market
• The Bubble’s Aftermath• Foreclosure Trends• Resale Trends• New Home Sales
1q01
2q01
3q01
4q01
1q02
2q02
3q02
4q02
1q03
2q03
3q03
4q03
1q04
2q04
3q04
4q04
1q05
2q05
3q05
4q05
1q06
2q06
3q06
4q06
1q07
2q07
3q07
4q07
1q08
2q08
3q08
4q08
1q09
2q09
3q09
4q09
1q10
2q10
3q10
4q10
1q11
2q11
3q11
4q11
1q12
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$350,000
$145,000$195,000
$248,300
Greater Reno-Sparks Median Price
1% Quarterly Appreciation Rate
Peak (4Q05): $155,000 "Bubble"
1990-2001 = 0.97% average appreciation rate perquarter (blue trendline)
Quarterly Change1Q11: -5.9%2Q11: -5.6%3Q11: -0.3%4Q11: -0.1%1Q12: -3.6%
Annual Change1Q11 to 1Q12: -9.4%
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09
Au
g-0
9
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10
Au
g-1
0
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Au
g-1
1
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
New Monthly Home Foreclosures & Notice of Defaults - Washoe County
Notice of De-fault
Median Sales Price of Short-Sales, Bank-Owned Resales, & Non-
Distressed Sales
Washoe County (Single-Family Homes)
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
$130,000
$140,000
$150,000
$160,000
$170,000
$180,000
$190,000
$200,000
$210,000
$220,000
$230,000
$240,000
$250,000
$260,000
$270,000
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr-0
9
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug-
09
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr-1
0
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct
-10
Nov
-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb-
11
Mar
-11
Apr-1
1
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Median Sale Price: Short Sale, MLS
Median Sale Price: Bank Owned, MLS
Median Sale Price: Non-Distressed, MLS
February 2012Short Sales: 29% of All Sales 23% are Cash Sales
Bank Owned: 42% of All Sales 33% are Cash SalesNon-Distressed: 29% of All Sales 21% are Cash SalesAll Single-Family Homes: ($145,000) 27% are Cash Sales
New Single-Family Home Sales & Median Values - Washoe County
91
81
114
128131
111
117112
67
54
25
32
40 40
64 6461
102
65
48
6966
73
47
27 28
49
6158
77
2723
4044
4944
22
3833
29
4542 43
3236
21
47
39
25
19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nu
mb
er o
f N
ew H
om
e S
ales
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Med
ian N
ew H
om
e Sales P
rice
Number of New Home Sales
Median New Home Sales Price Peak: (Feb-06) $423,311
Peak: (Nov-05) 315 Sales
2008:
1,063 sales (89/month)
2009:
739 sales (62/month)
2010:
527 sales (44/month)
2011:
427 sales (36/month)
Factors Affecting the Housing Market
• Employment and Unemployment• Consumer Confidence and Taxable Sales• Population Trends (In/Out Migration)
Monthly Employment - Reno/Sparks MSA
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
220,000
225,000
230,000
Jan
-06
Feb
-06
Mar-
06
Ap
r-06
May-0
6Ju
n-0
6Ju
l-06
Au
g-0
6S
ep
-06
Oct-
06
No
v-0
6D
ec-0
6Jan
-07
Feb
-07
Mar-
07
Ap
r-07
May-0
7Ju
n-0
7Ju
l-07
Au
g-0
7S
ep
-07
Oct-
07
No
v-0
7D
ec-0
7Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar-
08
Ap
r-08
May-0
8Ju
n-0
8Ju
l-08
Au
g-0
8S
ep
-08
Oct-
08
No
v-0
8D
ec-0
8Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar-
09
Ap
r-09
May-0
9Ju
n-0
9Ju
l-09
Au
g-0
9S
ep
-09
Oct-
09
No
v-0
9D
ec-0
9Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar-
10
Ap
r-10
May-1
0Ju
n-1
0Ju
l-10
Au
g-1
0S
ep
-10
Oct-
10
No
v-1
0D
ec-1
0Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar-
11
Ap
r-11
May-1
1Ju
n-1
1Ju
l-11
Au
g-1
1S
ep
-11
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1D
ec-1
1Jan
-12
Feb
-12
February 2012 Total - 186,200
Jan-Dec 2008:-7,000
Employees
Jan-Dec 2007:+7,100
Employees
Jan-Dec 2006:+13,300
Employees
Jan-Dec 2009:-4,700
Employees
Jan-Dec 2010:+5,900
Employees
Feb10-Feb11: -100
Feb11-Feb12:-400
Jan-12 Unemployment Rate: 13.0%
Feb-11 Unemployment Rate: 13.5%
**Peak = 228,100 Emp
Feb-12 Unemployment Rate: 12.2%**Start of Great Recession
**End of Great Recession
(Not Seasonally-Adjusted)
Jan-Dec 2011:+7,500
Employees
(Year 2000 Level)
Month Over Month Employment Change - Reno/Sparks MSA
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
Jan
-07
Feb
-07
Mar
-07
Ap
r-07
May
-07
Jun
-07
Jul-
07A
ug
-07
Sep
-07
Oct
-07
No
v-07
Dec
-07
Jan
-08
Feb
-08
Mar
-08
Ap
r-08
May
-08
Jun
-08
Jul-
08A
ug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
No
v-08
Dec
-08
Jan
-09
Feb
-09
Mar
-09
Ap
r-09
May
-09
Jun
-09
Jul-
09A
ug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
No
v-09
Dec
-09
Jan
-10
Feb
-10
Mar
-10
Ap
r-10
May
-10
Jun
-10
Jul-
10A
ug
-10
Sep
-10
Oct
-10
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-11
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11A
ug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Local Government -1,000 -6.3%Construction -600 -7.4%Retail -500 -2.4%State Government -300 -2.9%Manufacturing -300 -2.7%Financial Activites -200 -2.3%Wholesale -200 -2.3%Education and Health Services -100 -0.5%Information -100 -4.5%Federal Government -100 -2.9%
TOTAL -3,400
Between February 2011 & February 2012 - Reno MSA
Employment Decreases by Sector
Leisure & Hospitality 2,200 6.6%Professional & Business Services 600 2.6%Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 100 0.8%Other Services 100 1.7%
TOTAL 3,000
Between February 2011 & February 2012 - Reno MSA
Employment Increases by Sector
Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales(Year Over Year)
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
1Q -
199
8
1Q -
199
9
1Q -
200
0
1Q -
200
1
1Q -
200
2
1Q -
200
3
1Q -
200
4
1Q -
200
5
1Q -
200
6
1Q -
200
7
1Q -
200
8
1Q -
200
9
1Q -
201
0
1Q -
201
1
NEVADA
CLARK
WASHOE
Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales(Year Over Year)
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
1Q -
199
8
1Q -
199
9
1Q -
200
0
1Q -
200
1
1Q -
200
2
1Q -
200
3
1Q -
200
4
1Q -
200
5
1Q -
200
6
1Q -
200
7
1Q -
200
8
1Q -
200
9
1Q -
201
0
1Q -
201
1
NEVADA CLARK
WASHOE BALANCE
Washoe County Population Estimates (2000-2010)
421,593417,379
341,935
421,407
341,415
300,000
320,000
340,000
360,000
380,000
400,000
420,000
440,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Washoe County (State Demographer)
Washoe County (Census Bureau)
Washoe County In & Out-Migration - IRS Tax Return Exemptions
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010200920082007200620052004200320022001
In-Migration
Out-Migration
Net Migration
UNR’s Center for Regional Studies
Visit our website to download a copy of this presentation and to see all of the data that we provide for the Northern Nevada area
www.CenterForRegionalStudies.org
Brian Kaiser
Briank @ unr.edu