November 2, 2016

Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook

Terry L, Clower, Ph.D., Director Center for Regional Analysis

Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University

Presentation to

Mid-Atlantic Lender Conference Mortgage Bankers Association of Metropolitan Washington

Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2016

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

20

02

20

05

20

08

(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Sep 2015 – Sep 2016

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%Washington +2.4%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector Sep 2015 – Sep 2016 Washington MSA

1

3

1

0

0

3

5

10

6

4

14

5

26

(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 76,100

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

20

02

2005

2008

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Fe

b

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

(000s)

Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sep-16 Total: 746.1

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Annual Month Over the Year

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s)

Federal Government Washington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002

2005

2008

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Fe

b

May

Aug

No

v

Feb

May

Aug

No

v

Fe

b

May

Aug

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Sep-16 Total: 369.8

Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

August 6.5 – DC 4.9 – U.S. 4.0 – SMD 4.0 – MSA 3.3 – NVA

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Aug 2016

12-Month Moving Average

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Median House Sales Price Washington MSA

$399.3K Aug 2016

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

(000s) (000s)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Washington MSA Building Permits

2003 – 2016, 3-Month Moving Avg

Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change

12-Month Moving Average

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas

(Annual % Change)

DC

SM

MSA

NV

%

Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

D.C. 13.0 6.5 14.7 14.1 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2

Sub. MD 6.1 11.1 17.4 20.2 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0

No. VA 8.9 1.3 27.3 25.5 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6

REGION 28.0 18.9 59.4 59.8 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 – 2015 – 2020

(Annual % Change)

Washington

U.S.

%

Thank You

Questions

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