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Warsaw, September 27, 2007
World Bank EU8+2 Regular Economic Report
Main Report
Main messages
Growth continues despite recent international disturbances.
Sustained efforts are needed to address on going challenges relating to CADs, inflation and fiscal consolidation.
• GDP growth has been strong
• Slowed slightly in 2Q
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CZ EE HU LV LT PL SK SI BG RO
3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07
2Q 07 2006
GDP growth rates (% yoy)
• Consumption is strong in the Baltic States, Slovakia, and Romania, and is driven by strong wage growth.
• Investment is strong in Poland, Slovenia and Bulgaria.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
4Q 0
6
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
CZ EE HU LV LT PL SK SI BG RO
Consumption
Gross Fixed Investment
GDP
Consumption, Investment and GDP growth, yoy, %
Both residential and civil engineering. Especially strong in Baltics, Bulgaria and
Romania. Increasingly important to overall growth. Now being constrained by labor shortages. Baltic real estate boom may be ending.
Construction has been booming
External market conditions have changed significantly
Global slowdown started in 2Q Shock from US mortgage and housing market
developments. Global reprising of risk and retreat from risky
assets. Represents a test of vulnerabilities of EU8+2 now
more integrated into world economy. Potential further surprises and slowdown in US.
Two channels of communication of external shocks to EU8+2
Trade Financial markets
2.1
2.3
2.4
1.7
1.53.2
1.52.25.6
2.0
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
2004
2005
2006
Jan-
May
07
EU15 NMS Russia USA RoW
CZ EE HU LV LT PL SI SK BG RO
Geographical destination of exports of the EU8+2, structure in %
EU8+2 exports to US are small US slow down would have to be much bigger and pull
down RoW growth to have greater impact on EU8+2 via the trade channel
Financial vulnerabilities stem from need to finance CADs…..
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
CZ HU PL SK SI
Trade in goods, net Trade in services, netIncome, net Current transfers, netCurrent account balance
CAD as % of GDP
….some of which are large and rising
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
2006
1Q 0
7
2Q 0
7
EE LV LT BG RO
Trade in goods, net Trade in services, netIncome, net Current transfers, netCurrent account balance
CAD as % of GDP
The type of finance matters
FDI is the most secure and covers 100% of the CADs of Czech Republic and Poland, in 90% in Bulgaria and 2/3 in Slovakia and Romania.
Hungary relies more on portfolio investment. Baltics rely on borrowing, largely through
banks. In Latvia the rate of borrowing is unsustainable.
Evidence of trouble?
Bond spreads Equity markets Currencies
Bond spreads up, but not much…
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
EMBI+ spread
EMBI+ LatAm spreadEMBI+ Asia spread
EMBI+ Europe spread
…and less in EU8+2 than in other emerging markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07
EMBI+ spreadEMBI+ Russia spreadEMBI+ LatAm spreadEMBI+ Asia spreadEMBI+ Europe spread
Some stock markets are actually up
Stock market indices
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2-Jul 17-Jul 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug
PL
CZ
HU
BG
RO
SK
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2-Jul 17-Jul 1-Aug 16-Aug 31-Aug
EE
LT
LV
SI
in Visegrad countries, BG and RO Baltic countries and Slovenia
Currencies are mixedExchange rates vs. Euro
Czech koruna
26
27
28
29
30
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Slovak koruna
323334
35363738
3940
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Romanian leu
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Polish zloty
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
4
4.1
4.2
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
Hungarian forint
240
250
260
270
280
290
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan-
07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7
Sep
-07
EU8+2 have weathered this storm so far, but things could get worse
There remains a large block of US mortgages to rollover. Further credit crunch could evolve despite Fed and ECB
actions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2006
2005
2004
2003
months after origination
Sub-prime 60 day delinquencies by mortgage vintage year, adjustable rate mortgages, in percent of payments due
Fundamental medium term challenges remain
• Ensure that CADs do not grow unsustainably• Ensure that inflationary forces remain
controlled• Continued efforts towards fiscal consolidation• Address overheating in Latvia
Inflationary pressures are mounting
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Jan-
07
Apr
-07
Jul-0
7
CZ HUPL SK
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-
05
Apr
-05
Jul-0
5
Oct
-05
Jan-
06
Apr
-06
Jul-0
6
Oct
-06
Jan-
07
Apr
-07
Jul-0
7
BG RO
Overall HICP
Some of the pressure is from volatile food and energy.
But there are sustained pressures from wages which are growing faster than productivity in most countries.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
-05
Apr
-05
Jul
-05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Apr
-06
Jul
-06
Oc
t-0
6
Jan
-07
Ap
r-07
Jul-0
7
LV SILT EE
Overall HICP
Further efforts are needed towards fiscal consolidation
Fiscal outcomes this year will be better than planned in most countries because of strong revenue performance.
Hungary, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia and Latvia are making some consolidation efforts.
Bulgaria and Romania could make greater consolidation efforts.
Cyclically adjusted balances are high in Bulgaria and Estonia.
Latvia is struggling to implement fiscal stabilization plan
Next year’s budget plans are not fully clear but indications are that many countries will cut tax rates and increase expenditures, especially social expenditures.
There may be fiscal loosening in Estonia, Bulgaria and Poland.
Fiscal 2008
Thank you for your attention
http://www.worldbank.org/eca/eu10rer
From the Shortage of Jobs to the Shortage of Skills
Recent Labor Market Developments in EU8+2
Countries
World Bank EU8+2 Regular Economic Report
Special Topic
Main questions
What have been the main changes in the EU8+2 labor markets since the EU accession?
What are the emerging challenges? How can they be addressed?
Main LM Developments in EU8+21. Substantial improvement in labor market conditions over a
short period of time A strong growth in domestic labor demand is the main factor behind the
improvement
2. But labor resources are still underutilized Low employment rates among certain groups Long-term unemployment Low-productivity employment
3. Still labor and skills shortages have emerged and may become an impediment to further growth
4. Challenge of mobilizing effective labor supply Workers who have incentives to seek employment, and skills that
enable them to take available jobs
Outline
1. Labor market conditions have improved
2. Labor remains underutlized
3. Skills shortages: an emerging challenge
4. How to mobilize labor supply to address
skills shortages
Employment outcomes have improved
More people of working age are employed and less are unemployed
50
55
60
65
70
75
CZ EE HU LV LT PL SK SI BG RO HR EU15
2000 2006 Lisbon Goal
Change in employment rates 2000-2006 (15-64)
thanks to a growth in labor demand
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
CZ EE HU LV LT PL SK SI BG RO
1Q 05 1Q 06 1Q 07
Vacancy rates in EU8+2
Why labor demand picked up? EU accession and access to new markets Global economic prosperity But most importantly the responsiveness of employment to
growth has significantly increased All EU8+2 countries experienced periods of “jobless growth” The increase in the “employment content” of growth reflects successful
enterprise restructuring Move from “defensive” to “strategic” firm restructuring:
Initially firms were restructuring by shedding off redundant labor, and using productivity gains to meet increasing demand
Productivity growth has made EU8+2 firms more competitive Which allowed them to expand and gain market shares They need to hire additional workers to meet increasing demand and
sustain growth
Other factors have played a negligible role
Three main suspects: Labor market flexibility
No major reforms and no improvement => cannot explain the fall in unemployment
Out-migration It is not the hard core unemployed who migrate Out-migration cannot account for job creation and employment growth The fall in unemployment was associated with strong employment
growth Active Labor Market Programs
Limited impact Tend to redistribute jobs rather than create new ones Cannot account for the increase in employment
Strict EPL has not hampered improvement in employment outcomes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CZ PL HU SK BG LT HR RO SI EE LV
2003 2006
Rigidity of Employment Index
Labor remains underutlized
many people of working age do not contribute to output growth
YouthHungary, Lithuania, Bulgaria
Older workersPoland, Slovakia, Hungary
Long-term unemployedSlovakia, Croatia, Romania
Subsistence farmersRomania, Bulgaria, Poland
Youth in EU8+2 do not combine education with work
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Bul
garia
Slo
vaki
a
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Hun
gary
Por
tuga
l
Latv
ia
Luxe
mbo
urg
Lith
uani
a
Cyp
rus
Est
onia
Gre
ece
Mal
ta
Aus
tria
Rom
ania
Italy
Ger
man
y
Pol
and
Bel
gium
Spa
in
Fra
nce
Slo
veni
a
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Fin
land
Sw
eden
Den
mar
k
Net
herla
nds
EU 25 Average
Share of 15-24 in part-time employment, 2006
Early retirement is a particular problem in aging societies
52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66
PL
SI
HU
HR
SK
BG
CZ
RO
LV
LT
EE
OfficialMedian
Official and Actual (Median) Retirement Age in EU8+2, 2005 (Men)
As a result many older workers are out of the labor force
Workers Aged 55-64Employment/Population Ratio
2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
EE LV LT EU15 CZ HR RO BG HU SK SI PL
%
Lisbon target
High shares of LTU point to structural unemployment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sw
eden
Cyp
rus
Den
mar
kS
pain
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Fin
land
Aus
tria
Luxe
mbo
urg
Irel
and
Latv
iaM
alta
Fra
nce
Net
herla
nds
Lith
uani
a
Hun
gary
Est
onia
Slo
veni
a
Italy
Por
tuga
l
Bel
gium
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Gre
ece
Bul
garia
Pol
and
Ger
man
yR
oman
ia
Cro
atia
Slo
vaki
a
EU 25 Average
Share of long-term unemployment in total unemployment, 2006
Many workers are employed in low-productivity agriculture
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
RO BG PL HR LT LV SI EE HU CZ EU15 SK
Employment in Agriculture Employment in Industry Employment in Services
Share of employment by sector, 2006
Skills shortages
Shortages of skilled labor have become employers main concern
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Slovakia
Slovenia
Croatia
Estonia
Poland
Romania
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Czech
Latvia
Expanding f irms
Non-expanding f irms
EU8+2 averageAll f irms
Percentage of firms that report worker skills as an important obstacle to firm operation and growth, 2005
Poland: hiring a worker with required skills is increasingly difficult
1.8 3.05.3
10.1 10.7 10.712.7
13
11
7
21
2-31-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
4Q 05 1Q 06 2Q 06 3Q 06 4Q 06 1Q 07 2Q 07
number of enterprises (%)rank of obstacle
Enterprises reporting hiring difficulties in an open survey on key obstacles to growth (in %) and the rank of this obstacle
Filling vacancy for a skilled worker can take a long time even if unemployment is high
0 2 4 6 8
RO
BG
PL
CZ
SI
HU
LT
CR
EE
LV
SK
EU8+2 and
HR average
Time needed to fill a vacancy for a skilled worker 2005 (in weeks)
because of the skills mismatch: excess supply of low-skilled labor
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CZ EE HU LV LT PL SK SI BG RO EU15
Primary and low er secondary
Upper secondary and post-secondaryTertiary
“Excess Supply” of Labor by Educational Attainment, 2006
Skill shortages have given rise to wage pressures and to growing ULC
(Example: construction)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1Q 0
3
2Q 0
33Q
03
4Q 0
3
1Q 0
42Q
04
3Q 0
4
4Q 0
41Q
05
2Q 0
5
3Q 0
54Q
05
1Q 0
6
2Q 0
63Q
06
4Q 0
6
PL EESK LT
Unit labor costs in construction, 4Q moving average, yoy %
How to mobilize labor supply?
The big shift Until recently low employment/population ratios
in EU8+2 were due to insufficient labor demand Now they are they reflect supply side constraints There are labor shortages despite a large pool of
working age population which out of the labor force but able to work
The policy priority has shifted from fostering job creation to mobilizing effective labor supply
Otherwise labor shortages may hinder economic growth
EU8+2 need to mobilize labor supply to sustain economic growth
Three main ways of achieving this: Improving labor supply incentives through
reforming social security systems Improving worker skills by making the
educational system more responsive to labor market needs
Opening labor markets to foreign workers to import labor with required skills
Thank you for your attention
http://www.worldbank.org/eca/eu10rer