Warming Bad[1]

8/14/2019 Warming Bad[1]

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Wildcat Debate Workshop 08 Impact- Floods .................................................................................................................................................................................................

Impact- Poverty .................................................................................................................................................................................... ...... .....

Impact- Terrorism ...........................................................................................................................................................................................

Impact- EXT: Terrorism ............................................................................................................................................................................. .....

Impact- Middle East War .................................................................................................................................................................................

Impact- Economic Collapse ............................................................................................................................................................................

Impact- Nuclear War ...................................................................................................................................................................... ...... ...... .....

Impact- Warming Outweighs Nuclear War .....................................................................................................................................................

Must Act Now ........................................................................................................................................................................................ ...... ...

AT: Developing nations prevent solving .........................................................................................................................................................


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Wildcat Debate Workshop 08 Warming occurring now

Global warming exists, and it has existed since we started using CO2 in the industrial Revolution.Danielle Murray, 2005

(Earth Policy Institute, Ice Melting Everywhere, July 8, 2008,http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htm)Ice is melting everywhereand at an accelerating rate. Rising global temperatures are lengthening melting seasons, thawing frozenground, and thinning ice caps and glaciers that in some cases have existed for millennia. These changes are raising sea level faster thanearlier projected by scientists, and threatening both human and wildlife populations. Since the industrial revolution, human activity has

released ever-increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouses gases into the atmosphere, leading to gradual but unmistakabchanges in climate throughout the worldespecially at the higher latitudes. Average surface temperatures in the Arctic Circle have risenby more than half a degree Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade since 1981. The extent of Arctic sea ice cover has decreased by 79 percent per decade. And the three smallest extents of summer ice ever seen there have all occurred since 2002. According to the latestforecasts, the Arctic could be ice-free in the summer by the end of this century. (Seedata andmapfor selected ice melt examples fromaround the globe.)

Global Temperatures trends are RisingKohlerandDutzikWisconsin Environment Research and Policy Center and Frontier Group 2007

Over the last century, global average temperatures have increased by 1.3 F.1 Scientists believe that temperatures in the last half of the20th century were likely the highest in the last 1300 years.2 Most of the recent warming is likely due to human-caused releases of globawarming pollutants, primarily carbon dioxide.3 Global warming appears to have intensified in recent years. In 2006, scientists at the

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) reported that, since 1975, temperatures have been increasing at a rate of about0.36 F per decade.4 Worldwide, 11 of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006) rank among the 12 warmest years on record, with 2006 likely thwarmest year in the United States since record-keeping began in 1895.5 (See Fig. 1, next page.) While temperatures have increased onaverage, patterns of extreme temperatures have also changed. According to the recent IPCC report, Cold days, cold nights and frost hav

become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights and heat waves have become more frequent.
http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htm#maphttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htm#maphttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htm#maphttps://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/Uh/NM/UhNMNKKS4XIGqGDc4LtLTQ/_An_Unfamiliar_State_Wisconsin_Global-Warming.May2007.pdfhttps://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/Uh/NM/UhNMNKKS4XIGqGDc4LtLTQ/_An_Unfamiliar_State_Wisconsin_Global-Warming.May2007.pdfhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/Ice_data.htm#maphttps://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/Uh/NM/UhNMNKKS4XIGqGDc4LtLTQ/_An_Unfamiliar_State_Wisconsin_Global-Warming.May2007.pdfhttps://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/Uh/NM/UhNMNKKS4XIGqGDc4LtLTQ/_An_Unfamiliar_State_Wisconsin_Global-Warming.May2007.pdf


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Wildcat Debate Workshop 08

Warming occurring- Satellite dataSatellite technology proves world is warming unnaturallyHenderson the Times science correspondent 2004

POWERFUL evidence for global warming has been discovered by scientists funded by the US Government, demolishing the chief

argument of sceptics who deny that the phenomenon is real. A new analysis of satellite data has revealed that temperatures in a criticalpart of the atmosphere are rising much faster than previously thought, strengthening the scientific consensus that the world is warming aan unnatural rate. The discovery resolves one of the most contentious anomalies in climate science, which has often been invoked by theBush Administration to question whether man-made global warming is happening. While it is generally accepted that surfacetemperatures are increasing by an average of 0.17C (0.31F) per decade, satellites have been unable to detect a parallel trend in thetroposphere the lowest level of the atmosphere, extending 7.5 miles above the ground, in which most weather occurs.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article852640.ecehttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article852640.ece


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Warming occurring- ModelsWarming occurring Models prove

BlackBBC News environment correspondent 2005

The Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is giving back into space, according to a new study by climate scientists in theUS. They base their findings on computer models of climate, and on measurements of temperature in the oceans. The group describes itsresults as "the smoking gun that we were looking for", removing any doubt that human activities are warming the planet. The results are

published in the journal Science this week. The study attempts to calculate the Earth's "energy imbalance" - the difference between theamount of energy received at the top of the atmosphere from solar radiation, and the amount that is given back into space. Rather thanmeasuring the imbalance directly, the researchers draw on data from the oceans, in particular from the growing global flotilla of scientif

buoys and floats, now numbered in the thousands, which monitor sea temperature.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4495463.stmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4495463.stm


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Warming Occurring- Models AccurateNew model accounts for more variable and therefore is more accurateScience Daily. Science research news website. December 13, 2007. New Model Revises Estimates Of Terrestrial Carbon DioxideUptake. Accessed July 9, 2008.Researchers at the University of Illinois have developed a new model of global carbon and nitrogen cycling that will fundamentallytransform the understanding of how plants and soils interact with a changing atmosphere and climate. The new model takes into accoun

the role of nitrogen dynamics in influencing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and rising atmospheric carbondioxide. Current models used in the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change do not account for nitrogen

processing, and probably exaggerate the terrestrial ecosystems potential to slow atmospheric carbon dioxide rise, the researchers say.They will present their findings this week at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. In the face ofglobal climate change, world leaders are in need of models that can reliably predict how land use and other human activities affectatmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Deforestation and the burning of coal and oil increase atmospheric carbon dioxide and contribute toglobal warming.


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Warming occurring ConsensusOverwhelming consensus proves CO2 causes warmingJohansen 2

(Prof of Comm @ UNO, The Global Warming Desk Reference, p. 49, NetLibrary) DMZ

The public policy debate regarding global warming has often conveyed an impression that scientists are hopelessly divided over the issu

of whether human activities are warming the lower atmosphere. In actuality, a high degree of agreement has existed since the IPCC's FirAssessment was published in 1990. The IPCC's first major report forecast widely varying temperature rises by region with an assumeddoubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The largest increases (six to seven degrees C.) were forecast in the interiors of northern

North America and Asia during the winter; increases in the summer for the same regions were forecast at between three and four degreeC. The largest summer temperature increase (4.8 degrees C.) was forecast for interior southern Asia. the smallest increases year-roundwere forecast for the tropics, especially areas near large bodies of water. An IPCC conference during November, 1990, at Geneva,Switzerland, issued a "ministerial declaration" representing 137 countries which agreed that while climate had varied in the past, "[t]herate of climate change predicted by the IPCC to occur over the next century [due to greenhouse warming] is unprecedented." Theministers declared, "[C]limate change is a global problem of unique character" (Jager and Ferguson 1991, 525). The ministers alsodeclared that the eventual goal should be "to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with climate" (Jager and Ferguson 1991, 536). The question of whether the Earth is becoming unnaturallywarmer because of huuman activities was largely settled in scientific circles by 1995, with publication of the Second Assessment of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a worldwide group of about 2,500 experts. The panel concluded that the earth's

temperature had increased between 0.5 and 1.1 degrees F. (0.3 to 0.6 degrees C.) since reliable worldwide records became availablebetween 1850 and 1900. The IPCC noted that warming accelerated as measurements approached the present day (Bolin et al. 1995). TheIPCC's Second Assessment concluded that human activity-increased generation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases-is at least

partially responsible for the accelerating rise in global temperatures. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been risingnearly every year due to increased use of fossil fuels by ever-larger human populations experiencing higher living standards. The IPCC'sSecond Assessment, according to one observer, "makes an unprecedented, though qualified, attribution of the observed climate change thuman causes. Though the human signal is still building and somewhat masked within natural variation, and while there are keyuncertainties to be resolved, the Panel concludes that `the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence onglobal climate' " (Landsea 1999).


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CO2 WarmingCO2 leads to increased temperatures because of burning of fossil fuels

BO NORDELL, 2001Elsevier, Division of Water Resources Engineering, Lule University of Technology. Thermal pollution causes global warming,December 15, 2001. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-49FGSB11&_user=508790&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000025157&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=508790&md5=4891eeb7936f971dddab6d88a624027f. Accesseon July 7, 2008.

A global rise in temperatures is undoubtedly real according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Macilwain, 2000An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system (IPCC, 2001)The estimated temperature increase during the past century was between 0.4 and 0.8 jC with the 10 warmest years all occurring within thlast 15 years (EPA, 2001). Even though there is a scientific consensus about an ongoing global warming, there is no consensus about itscause. Most studies, however, assume that it is a result of the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations into the atmosphere, i.e. thegreenhouse effect. The greenhouse explanation is based on the fact that the global mean temperature increase coincides with increasingemissions of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) into the atmosphere, which has been increasing since 1800, from about 275 to370 ppm today (CDIAC, 2002). It is presumed that increases in carbon dioxide and other minor greenhouse gases will lead to significanincreases in temperature. It is generally believed that most of this increase is due to the increased burning of fossil fuels.

Fossil records prove CO2 causes climate changeKate Melville. Staff writer for science a go go. January 5, 2007. Fossil Records Show Yo-Yo Effect Of Changing Climate. AccessedJuly 8, 2008. http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20070004210624data_trunc_sys.shtml

The mid-Permian transition from ice age to an ice-free planet was marked by dips and rises in carbon dioxide and extreme swings inclimate, according to University of California, Davis (UC) researchers writing in Science. During the mid-Permian, 300 million years agmuch of the southern hemisphere was covered in thick ice sheets and floating pack ice likely covered the northern polar ocean. But fortymillion years later, all the ice was gone and the climate hot and dry with sparse vegetation. UC's Isabel Montanez, lead author on the

paper, derived levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperatures from the fossils of brachiopod shellfish and fossilizedplants from the ancient rainforests. They also looked at the scars and clues left by glacial ice sheets that once covered the great southerncontinent of Gondwanaland, which included most of the land masses of the modern southern hemisphere. Montanez's analysis showsthat throughout the change over millions of years, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels swung back and forth between about 250 parts per

million (close to present-day levels) to more than 2,000 parts per million. At the same time, the southern ice sheets retreated as carbondioxide rose and expanded again when levels fell, a pattern compatible with the idea that greenhouse gases caused the end of the latePaleozoic ice age. "We can see a pattern of increasing carbon dioxide and increasing temperatures, with a series of rises and dips,"Montanez said. Previously, it was assumed that as the climate warmed, a tipping point would be reached at which the ice sheets wouldmelt rapidly and for good. Instead, the new data shows that the climate went back and forth between the extremes. Instead of a smoothshift, the transition occurred in a series of sharp swings between cold and hot conditions, occurring during perhaps a half-million to fewmillion years. Montanez pointed out that these results cannot be directly applied to current global warming. The current rise inatmospheric carbon dioxide is occurring throughout a much shorter timescale, for one thing. But the current work does show that such amajor change in climate will likely not proceed in small, gradual steps, but in a series of unstable, dramatic swings. Somewhatworryingly, while the mid-Permian changeover took millions of years, similar events might take place during a much shorter time span."Perhaps this is the behavior one should expect when we go through a major climate transition," Montanez mused.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-49FGSB11&_user=508790&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sorthttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-49FGSB11&_user=508790&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sorthttp://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20070004210624data_trunc_sys.shtmlhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-49FGSB11&_user=508790&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sorthttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-49FGSB11&_user=508790&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sorthttp://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20070004210624data_trunc_sys.shtml


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CO2 Warming- Historic DataCo2 causes warming multiple historical perspectives prove

Science Daily, Science publication, 22 May 2006Dailyscience.com, Feedback Loops In Global Climate Change Point To A Very Hot 21st Century, 07/08/08,http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060522151248.htm

Using deuterium-corrected temperature records for the ice cores, which yield hemispheric rather than local temperature conditions, GCMclimate sensitivity, and a mathematical formula for quantifying feedback effects, Torn and Harte calculated the magnitude of thegreenhouse gas-temperature feedback on temperature. Our results reinforce the fact that every bit of greenhouse gas we put into theatmosphere now is committing us to higher global temperatures in the future and we are already near the highest temperatures of the pas700,000 years, Torn said. At this point, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is absolutely critical.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060522151248.htmhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060522151248.htm


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CO2 Warming- Ice Records ProveIce core sample proves carbon dioxide cause climate changeThomas Stocker. Professor of Climate and Environmental Physics at the University of Bern. November 26, 2005. World magazine.Ice records of gas startling. Accessed July 8, 2008. Pg. 27

THERE is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today than at any point during the last 650,000 years, says a major new study that letscientists peer back in time at the "greenhouse gases" implicated in global warming. The study, by the European Project for Ice Corinin Antarctica, is published today in the journal Science. Sceptics sometimes dismiss the rise in greenhouse gases as part of a naturallyfluctuating cycle. The new study provides ever-more definitive evidence countering that view. By analysing tiny air bubbles preserved inAntarctic ice for millennia, the European research team has highlighted how people are dramatically influencing the build-up of thesegases. A previous ice-core sample had traced greenhouse gases back about 440,000 years. This new sample, from East Antarctica, goe210,000 years further back in time. Today's still rising level of carbon dioxide already is 27 per cent higher than its peak during all thosemillennia, said lead researcher Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern, Switzerland. "We are out of that natural range today," he saiMoreover, that rise is occurring at a speed that "is over a factor of a hundred faster than anything we are seeing in the natural cycles,"Stocker said. The team, which included scientists from France and Germany, found similar results for methane, another greenhouse gaResearchers also compared the gas levels to the Antarctic temperature over that time period, covering eight cycles of alternating glacial ice ages and warm periods. They found a stable pattern: lower levels of gases during cold periods and higher levels during warm periods

Ice record shows correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature levelsAndrew C. Revkin. Staff writer New York Times. November 25, 2005. New York Times. Gases at Level Unmatched in Antiquity,Study Shows. Accessed July 8, 2008. Pg. 14.

The new data from the ice cores also provides the first detailed portrait of conditions during ice-age cycles that occurred more than400,000 years ago -- a point in Earth's two-million-year history of cold periods and warm intervals after which some unknown influencelengthened ice ages and shortened and amplified the warm periods. Both before and after that transition, the ice record shows, there wasalways a tight relationship between amounts of the greenhouse gases and air temperature. While the overall climate pattern has been se

by rhythmic variations in Earth's orientation to the Sun, the records show that carbon dioxide and methane consistently made theinterglacial climate warmer than it would otherwise have been, said Thomas Stocker, one of the researchers and a physicist at theUniversity of Bern in Switzerland. Last year, the same cores provided new evidence that the current warm period, the Holocene, which

began about 12,000 years ago, is similar to the longer warm periods that were typical before 400,000 years ago, and could last at leastanother 16,000 years. The European team is analyzing deeper, older sections of the Dome C ice cores, and the researchers said theymight be able to take the climate record back 800,000 years, possibly providing information about yet another early warm interval simila

to the Holocene. The new long-term record is essentially creating a subset of climate science, letting scientists compare different warmperiods. They can then sort out influences, including greenhouse gases, said Gavin A. Schmidt, a climate modeler at the Goddard Institufor Space Studies in Manhattan.


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CO2 Rates are Human CausedIts not just an environmental phenomena its human made.

Pew Center for Climate Change 1

(Ed. Eileen Cluassen, Chairman of the Board, Climate Change: Science, Strategies, and Solutions, p. 7-8, NetLibrary) DMZ

The composition of the atmosphere has changed markedly since pre-industrial times: CO2 concentration has risen from about 280 parts

per million (ppm) to around 370 ppm today, CH4 has risen from about 700 parts per billion (ppb) to over 1700 ppb, and N20 hasincreased from about 270 ppb to over 310 ppb. Halocarbons, largely nonexistent prior to the 1950s, are now present in amounts that hava noticeable greenhouse effect. Pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gases are known because the composition of ancient air trapped in

bubbles in ice cores from Antarctica can be measured directly (Etheridge et al., 1998; Gulluk et al., 1998). These ice cores show that theconcentrations of these gases are much higher than in preindustrial times and far exceed levels of the preceding 10,000 years. Humanactivity - fossil-fuel burning, land-use changes, production and use of halocarbons, etc. - is the dominant cause of these changes inatmospheric composition. Human activity is the undeniable source of atmospheric halocarbons (the most climatically important of whichare the chlorofluorocarbons, CFC11 and CFC12) because the vast majority of these gases do not occur naturally. Today, manyhalocarbons are controlled under the Montreal Protocol ,2 and substitute chemicals, which do not cause ozone depletion and so are notcontrolled, are being introduced. These new gases, like all halocarbons, are strong greenhouse gases (although their net effects on futureclimate are expected to be small relative to C02). For C02, CH4, and N2O, the human role is virtually certain too, partly because theirchanges since pre-industrial times have been so large and at such unprecedented rates, and also because computer simulations provide anunequivocal link between the emissions of these gases in recent decades and observed changes in atmospheric composition. In addition t

the gases mentioned above, anthropogenic emissions of the reactive gases, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO,), and volatileorganic compounds (VOCs) such as butane and propane have increased concentrations of tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric ozone (03) ia powerful greenhouse gas. Most greenhouse gases also have natural sources. However, in pre-industrial times emissions were balanced

by natural removal or "sink" processes. Human activities have disturbed this balance.


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AT: Sun causes warmingStudies disprove sun spots as the sourceJohansen 2

(Prof of Comm @ UNO, The Global Warming Desk Reference, p. 87, NetLibrary) DMZG L O B A L - W A R M I N G S K E P T I C S A N D T H E S U N S P O T C Y C L E Many global-warming skeptics argue that thsunspot cycle is causing a significant part of the warming that has been measured by surface thermometers during the twentieth

century's final two decades. Accurate measurements of the sun's energy output have been taken only since about 1980, however, so theirarchival value for comparative purposes is severely limited. Michaels, editor of the World Climate Report, cites a study of sunspot-relatesolar brightness conducted by Judith Lean and Peter Foukal, who contend that roughly half of the 0.55 degree C. of warming observedsince 1850 is a result of changes in the sun's radiative output. "That would leave," says Michaels, "at best, 0.28 degree C. [due] to thegreenhouse effect" (Michaels 1996). J.J. Lean and her associates also estimate that approximately one-half of the warming of the last 13years has resulted from variations in the sun's delivery of radiant energy to the earth (Lean, Beer, and Bradley 1995). While solarvariability has a role in climate change, Martin I. Hoffert and associates (writing in Nature) believe that those who make it the primaryvariable are overplaying their hand: "Although solar effects on this century's climate may not be negligible, quantitative considerationsimply that they are small relative to the anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide" (Hoffert et al. 1999, 764)


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AT: Cosmic Rays WarmingNew research proves that the cosmic rays and clouds do not effect Global WarmingDaily Science, Science publication, 4 April 2008,Dailyscience.com, "Climate Change Is Not Caused By Cosmic Rays, According To New Research" 07/07/08,http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080403083932.htmNew research has dealt a blow to the skeptics who argue that climate change is all due to cosmic rays rather than to man-made

greenhouse gases. The new evidence shows no reliable connection between the cosmic ray intensity and cloud cover. Lauded andcriticised for offering a possible way out of the dangers of man made climate change, UK TV Channel 4's programme "The Great GlobaWarming Swindle", broadcast in 2007, suggested that global warming is due to a decrease in cosmic rays over the last hundred years.This would cause a decrease in the production of low clouds allowing more heat from the sun to warm the Earth and cause global

warming.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080403083932.htmhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080403083932.htm


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AT: Natural Checks- phytoplanktonPhytoplankton is not enough to off-set Global warming,Kevin R. Arrigo, Journalist, 21 November 2007International Weekly Journal of Science, Carbon cycle: Marine manipulations, 07/08/08,http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v450/n7169/full/450491a.html

Nevertheless, there are some notable conclusions to be drawn from this study. First, although CO2 uptake by phytoplankton may be

stimulated in a high-CO2 world, this negative feedback will only partly offset expected increases in atmospheric CO2. In fact, Riebesell eal. perform some clever calculations to show that the CO2-enhancement effect they identified has probably reduced the rise inatmospheric CO2 by only 11 atm (about 10%) since the dawn of the industrial revolution.


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Impact- Jellyfish destroy marine ecosystemThe warmer waters have helped the jellyfish population grow in size and move to more territory.MSNBC, June 5, 2008

(MSNBC, Like Jellyfish? Warming gives them a boost, July 9, 2008, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24987863/)Global warming certainly threatens many species, but some can actually benefit at least in the short run. The lifestyle of thejellyfish is testament to that, according to a new study. The study looked at jellyfish populations in the Bering Sea off Alaska, noting a

boom in the 1990s followed by a decline since 2000. By about 2000, the jellyfish were about 40 times more abundant than they hadbeen in 1982, according to analyses of collections from fishing trawlers that were reported in the May 29 issue of the journal Progress inOceanography. The National Science Foundation, which helped fund the study, said in a statement that the Bering Sea jellyfish alsoexpanded their ranges since 1991 by fanning out north and west of the Alaskan Peninsula.

Jellyfish collapse oceanic ecosystems.George Monbiot, recipient of the United Nations Global 500 award for his work on the environment, 2007. (The Guardian, Feeding

Frenzy Accessed on July 10, 2008,http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/03/feeding-frenzy/)But beyond a certain point the collapse is likely to be permanent. Off the coast of Namibia, where the fishery has crashed as a result ofover-harvesting, we have a glimpse of the future. A paper in Current Biology reports that the ecosystem is approaching a trophic dead-end(17). As the fish have been mopped up they have been replaced by jellyfish, which now outweigh them by three to one. The jellyfiseat the eggs and larvae of the fish, so the switch is probably irreversible. We have entered, the paper tells us, the era of jellyfishascendancy. Its a good symbol. The jellyfish represents the collapse of the ecosystem and the spinelessness of the people charged with

protecting it.

Oceans health is key to survival

Robin Kundis Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law. Taking Steps Toward Marine WildernessProtection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii, McGeorge Law Review. Winter, 2003. L/N

The world's oceans contain many resources and provide many services that humans consider valuable. "Occupy[ing] more than [seventypercent] of the earth's surface and [ninety-five percent] of the biosphere," n17 oceans provide food; marketable goods such as shells,aquarium fish, and pharmaceuticals; life support processes, including carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and weather mechanics; andquality of life, both aesthetic and economic, for millions of people worldwide. n18 Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the importance of thocean to humanity's well-being: "The ocean is the cradle of life on our planet, and it remains the axis of existence, the locus of planetary

biodiversity, and the engine of the chemical and hydrological cycles that create and maintain our atmosphere and climate." n19 Ocean an

coastal ecosystem services have been calculated to be worth over twenty billion dollars per year, worldwide. n20 In addition, many peopassign heritage and existence value to the ocean and its creatures, viewing the world's seas as a common legacy to be passed on relativelintact to future generations.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24987863/http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/03/feeding-frenzy/http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/03/feeding-frenzy/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24987863/http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2007/04/03/feeding-frenzy/


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Impact- Coral ReefsCoral Reefs are the first to go because of Climate Changethis will occurring only in a few years and is ke

to marine bio diversity

Goreau, 2005

Thomas Goreau, He was educated in Jamaica, MIT, Caltech, and Harvard. His research, focusing on reef restoration, global warming,coral diseases, and community based coastal zone management of nutrient pollution, has taken him across the Caribbean, Indian Ocean,Pacific, December 5, 2005. Open Democracy, Global warming and coral reefs,http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jspAccessed on July 7, 2008//DH

Coral reefs are the most sensitive of all ecosystems to global warming, pollution, and new diseases. They will be first to go as a result ofclimate change. As the most important resources for fisheries, tourism, shore protection, and marine biodiversity for more than a hundrecountries, this will be a huge disaster. Almost all reefs have already been heated above their maximum temperature thresholds. Manyhave already lost most of their corals, and temperature rise in most places gives only a few years before most corals die from heatstroke.

Oceans health is key to survival

Robin Kundis Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law. Taking Steps Toward Marine WildernessProtection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii, McGeorge Law Review. Winter, 2003. L/N

The world's oceans contain many resources and provide many services that humans consider valuable. "Occupy[ing] more than [seventypercent] of the earth's surface and [ninety-five percent] of the biosphere," n17 oceans provide food; marketable goods such as shells,aquarium fish, and pharmaceuticals; life support processes, including carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and weather mechanics; andquality of life, both aesthetic and economic, for millions of people worldwide. n18 Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the importance of thocean to humanity's well-being: "The ocean is the cradle of life on our planet, and it remains the axis of existence, the locus of planetary

biodiversity, and the engine of the chemical and hydrological cycles that create and maintain our atmosphere and climate." n19 Ocean ancoastal ecosystem services have been calculated to be worth over twenty billion dollars per year, worldwide. n20 In addition, many peopassign heritage and existence value to the ocean and its creatures, viewing the world's seas as a common legacy to be passed on relativelintact to future generations.
http://globalcoral.org/Goreau%20Bio.htmhttp://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsphttp://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsphttp://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsphttp://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsphttp://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/2877.phphttp://globalcoral.org/Goreau%20Bio.htmhttp://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsphttp://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization-climate_change_debate/2558.jsphttp://unfccc.int/essential_background/items/2877.php


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Impact- EXT : Coral ReefsGlobal warming has devastating effects on coral reefs.Sean Markey, for National Geographic News, May 16, 2006

National Geographic News, Global Warming Has Devastating Effect on Coral Reefs, Study Shows,http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.html. Accessed on July 7, 2008//DHMany reefs have been reduced to rubble, a collapse that has deprived fish of food and shelter. As a result, fish diversity has tumbled by

half in some areas, say authors of the first long-term study of the effects of warming-caused bleaching on coral reefs and fish. The studyfocused on reefs near Africa's Seychelles islands, north of Madagascar (seeSeychelles map), which sustained heavy losses from

bleaching in 1998. "The outlook for recovery is quite bleak for the Seychelles," said lead study author Nicholas Graham, a tropicalmarine biologist at England's University of Newcastle Upon Tyne. The study, in today'sProceedings of the National Academy ofSciences, predicts that isolated reef ecosystems like that around the Seychelles will suffer the most from global warming-caused bleachievents.

Even slight changes in temperature are too much for coral reefs.Sean Markey, for National Geographic News, May 16, 2006

National Geographic News, Global Warming Has Devastating Effect on Coral Reefs, Study Shows,http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlAccessed on July 7, 2008//DHSmall but prolonged rises in sea temperature force coral colonies to expel their symbiotic, food-producing algae, a process known as

bleaching. While the dying reefs, which turn ghostly white, can recover from such events, many do not. In 1998 an El Nio weather

pattern sparked the worst coral-bleaching event ever observed. "Over 16 percent of the world's reefs were lost in that one year," saidGraham, part of a team that recently received an unrelated research grant from theNational Geographic Society Committee for Researchand Exploration. (National Geographic News is a part of the National Geographic Society.) "It was a huge event." With data from a 19survey in hand, researchers returned to the Seychelles in 2005 to study the bleaching event's long-term impact on coral reefs and fishcommunities. Surveying 60,000 square yards (50,000 square meters) of coral reef across 21 sites, researchers found that fish diversitydeclined the most on reefs that had sustained physical and biological erosion. The finding by U.K., Australian, and Seychelles researcheconfirms what many scientists had long suspected. The census also revealed that four fish speciesbutterfly fish, damselfish, and twowrassesmay now be locally extinct. Six other fish species have declined to critically low numbers. Describing reefs in the innerSeychelles as in "various states of collapse," Graham says it appears unlikely they can recover. He says the reefs are too isolated torecruit young coral from other reef systems. "Coral cover at the moment is at about seven and a half percent [of previous levels] in the[inner] Seychelles," Graham said. "However less than one percent of that is fast-growing [branching] and plating corals, which in other

places in the world are often the ones that come back and start a recovery process."

Reduction of coral reefs is a problem because of global warming.Sean Markey, for National Geographic News, May 16, 2006

National Geographic News, Global Warming Has Devastating Effect on Coral Reefs, Study Shows,http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlAccessed on July 7, 2008//DH

Experts say word of vanishing coral reefs has become all too familiar. "By and large, reefs have collapsed catastrophically just in thethree decades that I've been studying them," said Nancy Knowlton, a marine biology professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanographin La Jolla, California. Knowlton, who is also a member of National Geographic Society Committee for Research and Exploration, notethat corals live precariously close to their thermal limits. As a result, even the most isolated reefs are vulnerable to the effects of globalwarming. "These increasingly warm temperatures that we've been seeing in the last couple of decades have been tipping reefs over interms of these fast bleaching events," she said. Graham, the study author, says that while local and regional resource managers canmitigate some damage to coral reefs, broader action is required. "Bleaching is a global issue, and it's driven by global warming," Grahamsaid. "So the onus is on all of us, really." "We need to reduce greenhouse gases and take these issues seriously."
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/xpeditions/atlas/index.html?Parent=africa&Rootmap=seychehttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/xpeditions/atlas/index.html?Parent=africa&Rootmap=seychehttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/research/index.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/research/index.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/research/index.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/xpeditions/atlas/index.html?Parent=africa&Rootmap=seychehttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/research/index.htmlhttp://www.nationalgeographic.com/research/index.htmlhttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/05/warming-coral.html


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Impact- Polar BearsPolar bears are declining directly because of global warming.Fred Langan and Tom Leonard, written articles published in The Daily Telegraph and The Sunday Telegraph, September 3, 2007Telegraph.co.uk, Polar Bears thriving as the Arctic warms up, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1545036/Polar-

bears-'thriving-as-the-Arctic-warms-up'.html"I don't think there is any question polar bears are in danger from global warming," said Andrew Derocher of the World Conservation

Union, and a professor of biological sciences at the University of Alberta in Edmonton. "People who deny that have a clear interest inhunting bears." Bear numbers on the west coast of Hudson's Bay had shrunk by 22 per cent over the past decade, he said. "They aredeclining due to global warming and changes in when the ice freezes and melts in Hudson's Bay," he added. He and other scientists in hgroup are concerned that the retreating ice in the Arctic may pose a danger to future generations of polar bears because of 'habitat loss'."The critical problem is the sea ice is changing. "We're looking ahead three generations, 30 to 50 years. "To say that bear populations argrowing in one area now is irrelevant."

Polar bears are a keystone speciesWWF, World Wide Fund for Nature. From the Amazon to the Bering Sea, WWF is building a future where human needs are met inharmony with nature. By 2020 we will conserve 19 of the worlds most important natural places and significantly change global forces t

protect the future of nature, May, 2002WWF, Polar Bears At Risk, 7/10/08,www.wwf.orgAs the polar bear is a keystone species at the top of the food web in the arctic seas, which include some of the worlds most productive

marine ecosystems, it is a good indicator of the overall status of these ecosystems (Eisenberg 1980). Successful conservation of polarbears and their habitats can thus have positive effects on many other species, in several key ecoregions, as well as on local humancommunities within the Arctic. Addressing the conservation of such keystone species therefore has a high priority within WWF. Througits work in priority ecoregions, WWF is a driving force in the protection of large expanses of unfragmented land and marine areas toensure that space-demanding species, such as the polar bear, can continue to roam undisturbed in intact ecosystems.

Without keystone species the rest of the ecosystem will collapseRocky Mountain Animal Defense, Keystone Species; Why Prairie Dogs Are So Important. February 22, 2004http://www.prairiedogs.org/keystone.htmlaccessed July 10, 2008

A keystone species is a species whose very presence contributes to a diversity of life and whose extinction would consequently lead to thextinction of other forms of life. Keystone species help to support the ecosystem (entire community of life) of which they are a part.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1545036/Polar-bears-'thriving-as-the-Arctic-warms-up'.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1545036/Polar-bears-'thriving-as-the-Arctic-warms-up'.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1545036/Polar-bears-'thriving-as-the-Arctic-warms-up'.htmlhttp://wwfmaps.org/http://www.wwf.org/http://www.wwf.org/http://www.wwf.org/http://www.prairiedogs.org/keystone.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1545036/Polar-bears-'thriving-as-the-Arctic-warms-up'.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1545036/Polar-bears-'thriving-as-the-Arctic-warms-up'.htmlhttp://wwfmaps.org/http://www.wwf.org/http://www.prairiedogs.org/keystone.html


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Impact- SalmonGlobal Warming threatens the livelihood of Salmon and Trout.Natural Resource Defense Council, 2002

(Natural Resource and Defense Council, Global Warming Threatens Cold Water Fish, July 8, 2008,http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/ntrout.asp)Why are salmon and trout so vulnerable to global warming? It's simple: cold-water fish such as trout and salmon thrive in streams with

temperatures of 50 to 65 degrees Fahrenheit. In many areas, the fish are already living at the upper end of their thermal range, meaningeven modest warming could render streams uninhabitable. Projected increases in water temperature differ by location, but average 0.7 to1.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2030, 1.3 to 3.2 degrees by 2060, and 2.2 to 4.9 degrees by 2090, depending on future emissions of heat-trapping gases and the climate model on which projections are based. The analysis covers four species of trout -- brook, cutthroat,rainbow and brown -- and four species of salmon -- pink, coho, chinook and chum. Researchers looked at air and water temperature datafrom more than 2,000 sites across the United States (not including Alaska or Hawaii). Then, using three internationally recognized climamodels, they estimated changes in stream temperatures under a variety of pollution scenarios. In reality, habitat loss could be even moreextensive than predicted. NRDC's study examined only the direct effects of higher air temperatures on water, and did not cover indirectimpacts of global warming, such as shifts in precipitation and evaporation. Nor did it take into account changes in the ocean, wheresalmon and some trout species spend much of their lives. As with other consequences of global warming, the disappearance of trout andsalmon is expected to vary by region. For trout, the greatest losses are likely to occur in the South, Southwest and Northeast, largely

because stream temperatures in those areas already are warmer than in other regions. For salmon, significant losses are expectedthroughout the current range of the four species, with the most dramatic losses occurring in California. Regardless of location, the

disappearance of cold-water fish will come at a significant cost -- to jobs, recreation and regional culture. Roughly 10 million Americanspend an average of 10 days a year angling for salmon and trout, and the estimated value of the combined fisheries ranges from $1.5

billion to $14 billion a year. Trout are also central to the culture of the Rocky and Appalachian mountains, while salmon are an integralpart of the Northwest's Native American heritage.

Salmon are a Keystone speciesSierra Club, Salmon; Keystone of the Coast. February 06, 2007http://www.savethegreatbear.org/CAD/Salmon.htm accessed July 10,2008

Salmon are keystone species in the rainforest. Not only are they a critical fall food source for the grizzly bear, wolves, eagles and otters,but they also act as fertilizer for the trees. In addition, because spawning is highly sensitive to stream temperature and sedimentation,salmon act as an indicator species for the overall health of the ecosystem.

Without keystone species the rest of the ecosystem will collapseRocky Mountain Animal Defense, Keystone Species; Why Prairie Dogs Are So Important. February 22, 2004http://www.prairiedogs.org/keystone.htmlaccessed July 10, 2008

A keystone species is a species whose very presence contributes to a diversity of life and whose extinction would consequently lead to thextinction of other forms of life. Keystone species help to support the ecosystem (entire community of life) of which they are a part.
http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/ntrout.asphttp://www.savethegreatbear.org/CAD/Salmon.htmhttp://www.prairiedogs.org/keystone.htmlhttp://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/ntrout.asphttp://www.savethegreatbear.org/CAD/Salmon.htmhttp://www.prairiedogs.org/keystone.html


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Impact- EXT: Salmon DieThe Salmon Population will have a hard time living in a hot river.

National Wildlife Federation, March 23, 2008(National Wildlife Federation, pacific Southwest Salmon In Hot Water, July 8, 2008,http://www.nwf.org/news/story.cfm?

pageId=B78FFA91-0385-8B0A-44A6DFA8FC022F09)

By 2040 up to 20 percent of the Pacific Northwest could become too warm for salmon, steelhead and trout if global warming is leftunchecked, an analysis released today by the National Wildlife Federation shows. Ongoing research conducted by the University ofWashington indicates that higher regional temperatures could also change the timing and volume of rain and snow coming from nearbyglaciers and mountains, affecting stream flows that the fish have historically depended on. Salmon in the region are struggling to surviamidst dams, water diversions and development along river shorelines, says Paula Del Giudice, director of the National WildlifeFederations Northwest Natural Resource Center in Seattle. Global warming will add an enormous amount of pressure onto whats left the regions prime cold-water fish habitat. If we dont act now to curb pollution, within our lifetimes a significant portion of this regionsalmon, steelhead and trout could be pushed out of existence. We have a responsibility to protect this regions wildlife heritage for ourchildrens future. That means we must unite in confronting global warming starting now. A 3 F rise in average August temperatures inthe region could cause as much as 20 percent of the area containing suitable habitat for some cold-water fish in the Columbia River Basiand coastal watersheds of Washington and Oregon to reach nearly 70 degrees F. If translated to stream temperature, the area could

become highly stressful for salmon, steelhead, and trout, concludes the report, Fish Out of Water. Based on recent global warmingprojections, a 3 F rise in temperature is plausible by 2040 due to increasing pollution from fossil fuels such as coal and oil. If streams in

the region continue to be degraded by other factors, the impact will likely be even greater.
http://www.nwf.org/news/story.cfm?pageId=B78FFA91-0385-8B0A-44A6DFA8FC022F09http://www.nwf.org/news/story.cfm?pageId=B78FFA91-0385-8B0A-44A6DFA8FC022F09http://www.nwf.org/news/story.cfm?pageId=B78FFA91-0385-8B0A-44A6DFA8FC022F09http://www.nwf.org/news/story.cfm?pageId=B78FFA91-0385-8B0A-44A6DFA8FC022F09http://www.nwf.org/news/story.cfm?pageId=B78FFA91-0385-8B0A-44A6DFA8FC022F09


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Impact- Sea LifeThe accelerated rate of melting ice endangers sealife.

Danielle Murray, 2005

(Earth Policy Institute, Ice Melting Everywhere, July 7, 2008,http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htm)The Arctic melt season has lengthened by 1017 days, shrinking the amount of ice buildup that remains from year to year. As sea ice thiand recedes from coastlines, indigenous hunters and fishers are finding themselves cut off from traditional hunting grounds. Coastal

communities face more violent and less predictable weather, rising sea levels, and diminishing access to food sources. Polar bears, unabto cross thin or nonexistent ice to hunt seals, will soon face a severely reduced food source. Scientists fear that with continued melting, t

bears may become extinct by the end of the century. Seals, walruses, and seabirds will also lose key feeding and breeding grounds alongthe ice edge. Marine transport through the Arctic is expected to increase as ice melts and new shipping routes become available. Thelength of the navigation season along the Northern Sea Route is projected to increase to about 120 days by 2100, up from the current 2030 days. While this could have positive economic effects, some observers worry about the environmental costs that might accompanyincreased ship access to Arctic waters, such as oil spills and fishery depletion.Phytoplankton disappearance caused by Global Warming threatens marine life.Seth Borenstein, AP Science Writer, 2006(USA Today, Global warming threatens basis of marine life In the worlds oceans, July 9, 2008,http://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-12-06-marine-life-threatened_x.htm)The critical base of the ocean food web is shrinking as the world's seas warm, new NASA satellite data show. The discovery has scientisworried about how much food will grow in the future for the world's marine life. The data show a significant link between warmer water

either from the El Nino climate phenomenon or global warming and reduced production of phytoplankton of the world's oceans,according to a study in Thursday's journal Nature. Phytoplankton are the microscopic plant life that zooplankton and other marine animaeat, essentially the grain crop of the world's oceans. "Everything else up the food web is going to be impacted," said oceanographer ScotDoney of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. "What's worrisome is that small changes that happen in the bottom of food web canhave dramatic changes to certain species at higher spots on the food chain." This is yet another recent scientific study with real-time datashowing the much predicted harmful effects of global warming are not just coming, but in some cases are already here and can be talliedscientifically, researchers said. A satellite commissioned by NASA tracked water temperature and the production of phytoplankton from1997 to 2006, finding that for most of the world's oceans when one went up the other went down and vice versa, said study lead authorMichael Behrenfeld, a biological oceanographer at Oregon State University. As water temperatures increased from 1999 to 2004, the croof phytoplankton dropped significantly, about 200 million tons a year. On average about 50 billion tons of phytoplankton are producedyearly, Behrenfeld said. During that time, some ocean regions, especially around the equator in the Pacific, saw as much as a 50% drop i

phytoplankton production, he said. However, the satellite first started taking measurements in 1997 when water temperatures were at thewarmest due to El Nino. That's the regular cyclical warming of part of the Pacific Ocean that affects climate worldwide. After that year,

the ocean significantly cooled until 1999 and the phytoplankton crop soared by 2 billion tons during those two years. "The results areshowing this very tight coupling between production and climate," Behrenfeld said. Phytoplankton, which turn sunlight into food, neednutrients such as nitrogen, phosphates and iron from colder water below, Behrenfeld said. With warmer surface water, it's harder for the

phytoplankton to get those nutrients. Behrenfeld said the link between the El Nino changes and phytoplankton production is clear. Foryears scientists warning about climate change have said warmer waters will reduce phytoplankton production and this shows it'shappening, he said. Other oceanographers agree with the El Nino link but said with only a decade of data it is harder to make globalwarming connections. "It's something you certainly can't ignore, because its potential is quite significant," said James Yoder of the WooHole Institute. "But there are some caveats because of the shortness of the record." Another worry is that with reduced phytoplankton, thworld's oceans will suck up less carbon dioxide, increasing the Earth's chief global warming gas, said NASA ocean biology projectmanager Paula Bontempi. That's because phytoplankton take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in making food. This is at least thethird significant peer-reviewed research paper in the past six months showing that long-anticipated global warming biological side effectare already happening. A study earlier this year linked increases in Western U.S. wildfires to global warming and a mega-study showedthat dozens of species of plants and animals were dying off from global warming. "What you're looking at is almost an avalanche of eac

individual effect," said Stanford University biological sciences professor Stephen Schneider. "As it gets warmer and as we measure morthings, the evidence accumulates."
http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-12-06-marine-life-threatened_x.htmhttp://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/Ice/2005.htmhttp://www.usatoday.com/weather/climate/2006-12-06-marine-life-threatened_x.htm


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Oceans health is key to survivalRobin Kundis Craig, Associate Professor of Law, Indiana University School of Law. Taking Steps Toward Marine WildernessProtection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii, McGeorge Law Review. Winter, 2003. L/N

The world's oceans contain many resources and provide many services that humans consider valuable. "Occupy[ing] more than [seventypercent] of the earth's surface and [ninety-five percent] of the biosphere," n17 oceans provide food; marketable goods such as shells,aquarium fish, and pharmaceuticals; life support processes, including carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, and weather mechanics; andquality of life, both aesthetic and economic, for millions of people worldwide. n18 Indeed, it is difficult to overstate the importance of th

ocean to humanity's well-being: "The ocean is the cradle of life on our planet, and it remains the axis of existence, the locus of planetarybiodiversity, and the engine of the chemical and hydrological cycles that create and maintain our atmosphere and climate." n19 Ocean ancoastal ecosystem services have been calculated to be worth over twenty billion dollars per year, worldwide. n20 In addition, many peopassign heritage and existence value to the ocean and its creatures, viewing the world's seas as a common legacy to be passed on relativelintact to future generations.


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Impact- EXT: Warming Kills Sea LifeGlobal warming threatens thousands of sea animals with extinctionJeremy Lovell, 9-9-02,

Reuters News Agency, Exotic Antarctic Species Face Climate Wipeout Reuters. http://www.well.com/~davidu/antarctic.html.Accessed on July 10, 2008//griceLEICESTER, England (Reuters) - Thousands of the world's most exotic species of sea animals from spiders the size of dinner plates to

giant woodlice face extinction if Antarctic sea temperatures rise as predicted, a scientist said Monday. "If the models are correct, we arelikely to lose large populations of scallops, giant isopods, bivalve molluscs and giant sea spiders among others," scientist Lloyd Peck ofthe British Antarctic Survey told reporters. "So far we have looked at 11 species and the answer has come up the same each time. At atemperature rise of two to three degrees, they asphyxiate," he said at the British Association for the Advancement of Science annualfestival. The behemoth-scale giant isopods resemble woodlice but grow to the size of a mobile phone. Peck said water temperaturesaround the Antarctic -- one of the last outposts of relatively untouched environment in the world -- were rising at more than twice the ratof the land temperature, having climbed by one degree in the past 15 years. Scientific models trying to predict the pace and scale offuture change pegged the likely rise at up to three degrees within 100 years. Surveys have shown that the Antarctic sea dwellers wereunable to adapt to such temperature changes so they effectively suffocated due to their inability to move oxygen round their bodies.GROW SLOWLY "These are probably the most fragile group of animals in the world to temperature change," he said. "They grow veryslowly, producing only a few generations in 100 years. Yet studies show it takes several generations to adapt." "Several thousand specieof cold-blooded invertebrate animals would be at risk if we get the kind of temperature rise indicated. In this part of the world we havesome of the most exotic animals there are," Peck said. He said there was every possibility that such a wholesale climatic slaughter woul

have an impact higher up the food chain, but that it was impossible to say just how they would be affected.

The Ecosystem of the Ocean is at risk as the temperatures in the ocean rise.(Environment News Service, Global Warming Threatens Ocean Ecosystems, July 8, 2008, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2002/2002-08-14-06.asp)Climate change will create increasing challenges to U.S. coastal and marine ecosystems over the next century, warns a new report fromthe Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Temperature changes, altered patterns of rain and snowfall, and rising sea level are expectedto upset the delicate balance of fragile coastal ecosystems. The Earth's climate is expected to change must faster than normal over thecoming decades due to the warming influence of human caused increases in greenhouse gas emissions. The world's oceans, which coveralmost 70 percent of the planet's surface, are likely to show the effects of climate change in dramatic and devastating ways, the PewCenter warns. "Such high rates of change will probably result in local if not total extinction of some species, the alteration of speciesdistributions in ways that may lead to major changes in their interactions with other species, and modifications in the flow of energy andcycling of materials within ecosystems," warns the new report, titled "Coastal and Marine Ecosystems and Global Climate Change:

Potential Effects on U.S. Resources." "Climate change could likely be the 'sleeper issue' that pushes our already stressed and fragilecoastal and marine ecosystems over the edge," said Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. "Particularvulnerable are coastal and shallow water areas already stressed by human activity, such as estuaries and coral reefs. The situation isanalogous to that faced by a human whose immune system is compromised and who may succumb to a disease that would not threaten ahealthy person."

Global Warming puts risk to the species of the Ocean for many reasons.(Environment News Service, Global Warming Threatens Ocean Ecosystems, July 8, 2008, http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/aug2002/2002-08-14-06.asp)Critical coastal ecosystems such as wetlands, estuaries and coral reefs are particularly vulnerable to climate change, the report concludesSuch ecosystems are among the most biologically productive environments in the world, but their location at the interface between theland and ocean environments exposes them to a wide variety of human and natural stressors. The added burden of climate change may

further degrade these valuable ecosystems, threatening their ecological sustainability and the flow of goods and services they provide tohuman populations, the report warns. Temperature changes in coastal and marine ecosystems will influence the metabolism of marinespecies, and alter ecological processes such as productivity and species interactions, the researchers said. Species are adapted to specificranges of environmental temperature, the report explains. As temperatures change, the geographic ranges of different species may expanor contract, creating new combinations of species that will interact in unpredictable ways. Species that are unable to migrate or competewith other species for resources may face local or global extinction. Changes in precipitation and sea level rise will have far reachingconsequences for the water balance of coastal ecosystems, the report notes. Increases in precipitation and runoff will increase the risk ofcoastal flooding, while decreases in precipitation may trigger droughts. Meanwhile, sea level rise will gradually inundate coastal lands,the study warns. Coastal wetlands may migrate inland with rising sea levels, but only if they are not obstructed by human development.Climate change is also likely to alter patterns of wind and water circulation in the ocean environment. Such changes may influence thevertical movement of ocean waters, increasing or decreasing the availability of nutrients and oxygen to marine species. Changes in oceacirculation patterns can also cause substantial changes in regional ocean and land temperatures and the geographic distributions of marinspecies.
http://www.well.com/~davidu/antarctic.htmlhttp://www.well.com/~davidu/antarctic.htmlhttp://www.well.com/~davidu/antarctic.html


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The Carbon Emissions threaten the life of many Marine animals.CNN, 2005

(CNN.com, Carbon Emissions Threaten Sea Life, July 8, 2008, http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/07/04/oceans.acid/)Excessive carbon in the atmosphere is already causing irreparable environmental damage to the Earth's oceans and drastic cuts inemissions are necessary to prevent further devastation, a panel of leading scientists has warned. A report by the Royal Society, the UK'sleading scientific academy, said that rising carbon levels caused by the burning of fossil fuels had dramatically increased the acidity ofseawater, threatening the oceans' ecosystems. Sea creatures such as coral, shell fish and star fish are likely to suffer because higher level

of acidity will make it harder for them to form shells and skeletons. The report predicts that some types of plankton, a major food sourcefor marine life, may be unable to make their calcium carbonate shells by the end of the 21st century. Larger marine animals such as squicould face extinction as they find it harder to extract oxygen from sea water and their food supplies dwindle. Combined with the effects climate change, ocean acidification also poses a threat to tropical and subtropical reefs such as Australia's Great Barrier Reef and thehundreds of thousands of species that live off them, as well as to the human communities that depend on reefs for food and as naturalcoastal defenses. "Along with climate change, the rising acidity of our oceans is yet another reason for us to be concerned about thecarbon dioxide we are pumping into the atmosphere," said Professor John Raven, chair of the Royal Society working group on oceanacidification. "World leaders ... must commit to taking decisive and significant action to cut carbon dioxide emissions. Failure to do somay mean that there is no place in the oceans of the future for many of the species and ecosystems that we know today." Raven said thatthe burning of fossil fuels over the past two centuries had changed the chemistry of the oceans at a rate that was 100 times faster than hahappened for millions of years. Those changes could also contribute directly to global warming if the carbon-saturated oceans reach a

point when they can no longer soak up any further emissions from the atmosphere. In the past two centuries the oceans have absorbedaround half of all carbon produced by humans, soaking up one ton for each person on the planet each year. "The oceans play a vital role

the earth's climate and other natural systems which are all interconnected. By blindly meddling with one part of this complex mechanismwe run the risk of unwittingly triggering far reaching effects," said Raven. While the report said that rising levels of ocean acidity areirreversible in current lifetimes, it warned that urgent action was needed to reduce levels of carbon in the atmosphere and called forfurther research into the consequences of ocean acidification.
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/07/04/oceans.acid/http://edition.cnn.com/2005/TECH/science/07/04/oceans.acid/


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Impact- Bio diversityFossil records prove that increased carbon dioxide has lead to mass extinction in the pastGreen Car Congress. Energy research company. October 24, 2007. Fossil Record Provides Evidence Linking Mass Extinction Eventswith Climate Change. Accessed July 8, 2008.

Researchers at the Universities of York and Leeds haveidentified a close association between Earth's climate and mass extinction

events in a study that examines the relationship between the two over the past 520 million yearsalmost the entire fossil record availabMatching data sets of marine and terrestrial diversity against temperature estimates, evidence shows that global biodiversity isrelatively low during warm greenhouse phases and extinctions relatively high, while the reverse is true in cooler icehouse phases.The research, published in the latest issue of Proceedings of the Royal Society B, was carried out by University of York student GarethJenkins, together with his supervisor, Dr Peter Mayhew, and University of Leeds Professor Tim Benton, both of whom are populationecologists. Proceedings B is the Royal Societys main biological research journal. Our results provide the first clear evidence thatglobal climate may explain substantial variation in the fossil record in a simple and consistent manner. If our results hold for currentwarmingthe magnitude of which is comparable with the long-term fluctuations in Earth climatethey suggest that extinctionswill increase. Dr Peter Mayhew. Future predicted temperatures are within the range of the warmest greenhouse phases that areassociated with mass extinction events identified in the fossil record. Of the five mass extinction events(Cretaceous-Tertiary, End-Triassic, End-Permian, Late Devonian, Ordovician-Silurian), fourincluding the one that eliminated the dinosaurs 65 million yearsagoare associated with greenhouse phases. The largest mass extinction event of all, the end-Permian, occurred during one of twarmest ever climatic phases and saw the estimated extinction of 95% of animal and plant species.

loss of biodiversity leads to extinction.David Diner, Major US Army, 1993 (The Judge Advocate General's School, United States Army, THE ARMY AND THEENDANGERED SPECIES ACT:WHO' S ENDANGERING WHOM? Accessed on July 9, 2008,http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-

bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

It may be difficult to accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew, 74 could save mankind. Many, ifnot most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect role, because theirextirpation could negatively affect a directly useful species. In a closely interconnected ecosystem, the loss of each species affects otherspecies dependent upon it. 75 Moreover, as the number of species decline, the affect of each new extinction on the remaining * speciesincreases dramatically 76 4. BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY The main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better thansimplicity.77 As the current mass extinction progresses, there has been a general decrease in the world's biological diversity. This trendoccurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within species by reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carr

serious future implications. 78 Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrowecological niches. These ecosystems are inherently more stable than less diverse systems: "'The more complex the ecosystem, the moresuccessfully it can resist a stress...[l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resistcollapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threadswhich if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole.", 79 By causing widespreadextinctions humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity rises, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. Thespreading Sahara desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the U.S. are relatively mild examples of what might beexpected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects,could cause total ecosystem collapse, and human extinction. Certainly, each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanremoving, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, 80 mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.
http://www.york.ac.uk/admin/presspr/pressreleases/massextinctions.htmhttp://www.york.ac.uk/admin/presspr/pressreleases/massextinctions.htmhttp://www.york.ac.uk/admin/presspr/pressreleases/massextinctions.htmhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://www.york.ac.uk/admin/presspr/pressreleases/massextinctions.htmhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf


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Impact- EXT: Bio DiversityAt least 1/3 of all plant and animal life will be at risk for extinction by the end of this century due to

warmingWorld Wildlife Foundation, 2000

One-third of world's habitat at risk from global warming, Climate Change. 30 Aug 2000.http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/what_we_do/ climate_change/news/index.cfm?uNewsID=2141. Accessed on July 7, 2008//grice

London, UK - Global warming could fundamentally alter one third of plant and animal habitats by the end of this century, and cause theeventual extinction of certain plant and animal species, according to a new study released today by WWF. The report,Global Warmingand Terrestrial Biodiversity Decline, says that in the northern latitudes of Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, where warming is predicted

be most rapid, up to 70 percent of habitat could be lost. Russia, Canada, Kyrgystan, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Uruguay, Bhutanand Mongolia are likely to loose 45 per cent or more of current habitat while many coastal and island species will be at risk from thecombined threat of warming oceans, sea-level rise and range shifts. "As global warming accelerates, plants and animals will come underincreasing pressure to migrate to find suitable habitat. Some will just not be able to move fast enough," said Adam Markham, ExecutiveDirector of a US NGO, Clean Air-Cool Planet, one of the co-authors of the report. "In some places, plants would need to move ten timesfaster than they did during the last ice age merely to survive. It is likely that global warming will mean extinction for some plants andanimals." Species most at risk are those that are rare or live in isolated or fragmented habitats. They include the rare Gelada baboon inEthiopia, the mountain pygmy possum of Australia, the monarch butterfly at its Mexican wintering grounds, and the spoon-billedsandpiper at its breeding sites in Russia's arctic far east. In the Untied States, most of the northern spruce and fir forest of New England

and New York State could ultimately be lost. In patches of habitat that do survive, local species loss may be as high as 20 per cent in themost vulnerable mountain ecosystems such as northern Alaska, Russia's Tamyr Peninsula and south-eastern Australia. The report's

predictions are based on a moderate estimate that concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will double from pre-industrial levels during this century. However, some projections suggest a three-fold increase in concentrations by 2100 unless action istaken to rein in the inefficient use of coal, oil and gas for energy production. In this case, the effects on nature could be even moredramatic. Already, Costa Rica's golden toad has probably become extinct. Birds such as the great tit in Scotland and the Mexican jay inArizona are beginning to breed earlier in the year; butterflies are shifting their ranges northwards throughout Europe; and mammals inmany parts of the Arctic including polar bears, walrus and caribou are beginning to feel the impacts of reduced sea ice and warmintundra habitat. "This is a wake-up call to world leaders if they do not act to stop global warming, wildlife around the globe may suffethe consequences. World leaders must give top priority to reducing levels of carbon pollution. They must not miss the chance of this

November's climate summit for stepping up action and preventing a catastrophe that could change the world as we know it," said JennifeMorgan, Director of WWF's Climate Change Campaign
http://www.panda.org/about_wwf/what_we_do/http://panda.org/downloads/climate_change/speedkills.pdfhttp://panda.org/downloads/climate_change/speedkills.pdfhttp://panda.org/downloads/climate_change/speedkills.pdfhttp://www.panda.org/about_wwf/what_we_do/http://panda.org/downloads/climate_change/speedkills.pdfhttp://panda.org/downloads/climate_change/speedkills.pdf


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Impact- Ecosystem collapse destroys Bio Decosystem collapse causes biodiversity loss.MIT, 2007, (Mass. Institute of Technology, Mission 2011: Saving the Ocean, Accessed on July 10, 2008,http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2011/finalwebsite/future/future.shtml)Evidence from global fisheries data and a plethora of experiments point to the catastrophic impact of biodiversity loss in human-dominated marine ecosystems. As populations shrink and species die off, the ocean's food chains, water quality, and recovery potential

are adversely affected. This adds to the instability of the ecosystems, which are already under strain from climate change and pollution,but the information available also suggests that we can still reverse these trends (Worm et al., 2006). With estimates placing the collapseof fisheries and all seafood species by the year 2050 (ScienCentral, 2006), we have little time to take action and save the oceans andglobal fisheries from unprecedented crises.

loss of biodiversity leads to extinction.David Diner, Major US Army, 1993 (The Judge Advocate General's School, United States Army, THE ARMY AND THEENDANGERED SPECIES ACT:WHO' S ENDANGERING WHOM? Accessed on July 9, 2008,http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-

bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf)

It may be difficult to accept that the snail darter, harelip sucker, or Dismal Swamp southeastern shrew, 74 could save mankind. Many, ifnot most, species are useless to man in a direct utilitarian sense. Nonetheless, they may be critical in an indirect role, because theirextirpation could negatively affect a directly useful species. In a closely interconnected ecosystem, the loss of each species affects other

species dependent upon it. 75 Moreover, as the number of species decline, the affect of each new extinction on the remaining * speciesincreases dramatically 76 4. BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY The main premise of species preservation is that diversity is better thansimplicity.77 As the current mass extinction progresses, there has been a general decrease in the world's biological diversity. This trendoccurs within ecosystems by reducing the number of species, and within species by reducing the number of individuals. Both trends carrserious future implications. 78 Biologically diverse ecosystems are characterized by a large number of specialist species, filling narrowecological niches. These ecosystems are inherently more stable than less diverse systems: "'The more complex the ecosystem, the moresuccessfully it can resist a stress...[l]ike a net, in which each knot is connected to others by several strands, such a fabric can resistcollapse better than a simple, unbranched circle of threadswhich if cut anywhere breaks down as a whole.", 79 By causing widespreadextinctions humans have artificially simplified many ecosystems. As biologic simplicity rises, so does the risk of ecosystem failure. Thespreading Sahara desert in Africa, and the dustbowl conditions of the 1930s in the U.S. are relatively mild examples of what might beexpected if this trend continues. Theoretically, each new animal or plant extinction, with all its dimly perceived and intertwined affects,could cause total ecosystem collapse, and human extinction. Certainly, each new extinction increases the risk of disaster. Like a mechanremoving, one by one, the rivets from an aircraft's wings, 80 mankind may be edging closer to the abyss.

Biodiversity is Vital for Human SurvivalFood and Agriculture Organization February 18, 2008

Biodiversity is vital for human survival and livelihoods; we need to conserve it for future generations. At the same time, theunacceptable scale of hunger and rural poverty in our small planet calls for urgent remedial action, FAO Deputy Director-General JameG. Butler said today. He was addressing the opening session of the thirteenth meeting of the Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical anTechnological Advice of the Convention on Biological Diversity (18-22 February 2008). Ultimately, at the global level, this event which involves FAO, the Convention on Biological Diversity and their partners is aimed at meeting the challenges of sustainableagricultural production to ensure food security for all peoples, especially the rural poor often the managers and custodians of our

biodiversity, as Mr. Butler put it. The Rome meeting focuses on the implementation of the programmes of work on agriculturalbiodiversity and forest biodiversity; the application of sustainable use principles and guidelines to agricultural biodiversity; the linkages

between agricultural biodiversity and climate change; marine, coastal and inland water ecosystems biodiversity; invasive alien species;and other scientific and technical issues.
http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2011/finalwebsite/future/future.shtmlhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000788/index.htmlhttp://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2011/finalwebsite/future/future.shtmlhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA456541&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdfhttp://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000788/index.html


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Impact DiseaseGlobal warming threatens infectious disease at a time that public health systems are on the brink

threatens human extinction.Dotto 2k

(Science Writer, Canadian Science Writers Association awardee, Storm Warming, p. 149-52, Netlibrary) DMZ

Global warming skeptics have vigorously attacked suggestions of a link between climate change and infectious diseases. The World Climate Reportclaims that advocates of greenhouse gas cuts are trying to scare the public by alleging that a warmer climate would cause death and disease. Someskeptics argue that if any health problems arise, health care and social support systems will cope with them. Leaving aside the fact that billions of peopledon't have access to even the most basic health care and social support systems (some of whom, it should be noted, live in developed countries likeCanada and the U.S.), there is the question of financing. As Scheraga said, "effective health care comes at a cost. There are those who argue we canadapt, but even if that's true, adaptation costs something and those resources must be diverted from other activities." In any event, there are doubts abouthow well the much-vaunted health care systems of industrialized countries would respond to added pressures caused by an increase in climate- andweather-related health problems. Many are hard-pressed to deal with existing demands. In the U.S., with a mostly private health system, more than 40million people are without basic medical coverage. Nor is the U.S. health care system well prepared to respond to natural disasters, according toemergency medicine specialists who spoke at a 1996 conference at the University of Colorado. The report summarizing their remarks said the U.S. willface "significant problems in providing sufficient emergency medical resources at the local level following catastrophic disasters." They attributed thelack of medical preparedness to several factors, including fragmentation and downsizing of hospitals and health support systems, increased costs, andconfusion in emergency planning. In Canada, where the public health care system until recently has been a source of national pride, there's also mountinconcern about the erosion caused by years of government cutbacks. There are ominous signs that the system is starting to crumble from the stress of too

much demand and too few resources. With the baby boom generation just entering its senior years, the situation will continue to deteriorate unless thesetrends are reversed. It's hard to be sanguine about the ability of this system to handle additional pressures stemming from climate change and weatherextremes. Some infectious disease experts have also expressed concern about failures of public health infrastructure all over the world. There's worryingevidence that disease outbreaks are increasing everywhere, including in developed countries. A 1995 study by Ann Platt of the World Watch Institutefound that mortality from infectious diseases was rising worldwide and that these diseases accounted for a third of all deaths, more than those caused bycancer and heart disease combined. The CDC found that U.S. deaths with infectious disease as an underlying cause increased by 58% between 1980 and1992 (39% when adjusted for population aging). Contrary to previous predictions that infection diseases would wane in the U.S., "these data show thatinfectious disease mortality has actually been increasing in recent years," said Robert Pinner of the CDC. The crisis results from both the emergence ofnew diseases and the reemergence of old diseases like tuberculosis, once thought beaten in developed countries. The growing drug resistance of manydisease organisms is an added problem that could be exacerbated by climate change. A warming climate is likely to accelerate the reproduction of

parasites, facilitating genetic adaptations that help them fend off drugs and other control methods. Climate change may also reduce the effectiveness ofprograms to control disease-carrying vectors. Platt blamed the global increase in infectious diseases on a "deadly mix of exploding populations, rampanpovert

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Warming Bad[1]