Upload
fheidari
View
126
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
DefinitionsConflict Model
Stability Analysis
Outline
2
Definitions
Normal Form Game vs. Relational Game
Relational Solution Concepts
3
The Graph Model of Conflict
4
Reachable List
5
Unilateral Improvement
6
Attitudes
7
Attitudes
8
Preference
Devoting Preference (DP)
Aggressive Preference (AP)
9
Relational Preference
10
Relational Preference
Total Relational Preference(TRP)
Total Relational Reply(TRR)
11
Set of Preferences
Normal Form Game
Relational Game
12
Nash Stability
Normal Form Game
Relational Game
13
Sequential Stability
Normal Form Game
Relational Game
14
General Meta Rationality
Normal Form Game
Relational Game
15
Symmetric Meta Rationality
Normal Form Game
Relational Game
16
The War of 1812
Conflict Model
17
The Americans declared war in 1812 for several
reasons, including:
trade restrictions brought about by Britain's ongoingwar with France
the impressment of American merchant sailors intothe Royal Navy
British support of American Indian tribes againstAmerican expansion
outrage over insults to national honor afterhumiliations on the high seas
History
18
The President of the United States
Admirals of the British Royal Navy
The British Prime Minister
Great Britain
Decision Makers
19
DM Options Feasible States
USA1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N
2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y
GB
3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N N
4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N
5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y
Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o
Feasible States
20
USA Moves
Graph Model
c
bam
on
g
ih
d
fe
j
lk21
GB Moves
Graph Model
d
j
a
m
g
22
GB Moves
Graph Model
e
k
b
n
h
23
Graph Model
f
l
c
o
i
24
GB Moves
DMs Ordering of States from Most to Least Preferred
USA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o
GB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k
Preference Vectors
25
Attitudes
USA GB
USA 0 -
GB - +
26
State
a b, c d, g, j, m
b a, c e, h, k, n
c a, b f, i, l, o
d e, f a, g, j, m
e d, f b, h, k, n
f d, e c, i, l, o
g h, i a, d, j, m
h g, i b, e, k, n
i g, h c, f, l, o
j k, l a, d, g, m
k j, l b, e, h, n
l j, k c, f, i, o
m n, o a, d, g, j
n m, o b, e, h, k
o m, n c, f, i, l
Reachable Lists
27
Stability Analysis
Normal Solution Concepts
Relational Solution Concepts
Misperceptions
28
Equilibrium X X X X X X E X X X X X X X X
USA Stability
Nash
SE
Q
Nash
SE
Q
Nash
SE
Q
Nash U
SE
Q U U U
Nash U U
USA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o
j d g c j d g c m m
l f i a n
GB Stability
Nash
Nash U U U U U U U U
Nash U U U U
GB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k
a c a c a c a c b b b b
d f d d f e e e
g g i h h
m o n
Normal Form Analysis
29
DM Options Feasible States
USA1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N
2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y
GB
3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N N
4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N
5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y
Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o
Feasible States
30
Nash SEQ SMR GMR # of EQ
a GB GB, USA GB, USA 2
b GB GB, USA GB, USA 2
c GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA 4
d USA USA USA GB, USA 1
e USA 0
f USA GB, USA GB, USA 2
g USA USA USA, GB USA, GB 2
h GB, USA 1
i USA USA, GB GB, USA 2
j USA USA GB, USA GB, USA 2
k USA USA USA 0
l USA USA, GB USA, GB 2
m USA USA GB GB 0
n 0
o GB GB 0
Normal Form Analysis
31
Equilibrium X X X X X X X X X X X E X E X
USA Stability
U U U U U U U U RN RN RN RN U RN U
USA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o
k k e e h i b c n n
l f i h b o
GB StabilityRN RN U U U U RN RN U U RN U U RN U
GB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k
a c a c a c b b b
d f e
g i h
m o n
Relational Form Analysis
32
DM Options Feasible States
USA1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N
2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y
GB
3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N N
4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N
5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y
Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o
Feasible States
33
RNash RSEQ RSMR RGMR # of EQ
a GB GB GB GB 0
b GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA 4
c GB GB GB GB 0
d 0
e USA USA USA USA 0
f 0
g 0
h USA USA USA USA 0
i 0
j 0
k USA USA USA USA 0
l USA USA USA 0
m GB GB GB GB 0
n GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA 4
o GB GB GB GB 0
Relational Form Analysis
34
Attitudes in hyper game of the war of 1812
A First level hyper game
Hyper Game
USA GB
DMs USA GB DMs USA GB
USA 0 - USA + 0
GB - + GB 0 +
35
Equilibrium X X X X X X X X X X X E X X X
USA Stability
U U U U U U U U RN RN RN RN U RN U
USA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o
k k e e h i b c n n
l f i h b o
GB StabilityRN RN U U U U U U U U RN U U U U
GB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k
a c a c a c a c b b b b
d f d d f e e e
g g i h h
m o n
Overall Stability Analysis
36
DM Options Feasible States
USA1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N
2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y
GB
3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N N
4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N
5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y
Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o
Feasible States
37
Conflict Analysis Approaches for Investigating Attitudes and Misperceptions in
the War of 1812
Takehiro INOHARA
Keith W. HIPEL
Sean WALKER
Journal of system science and system engineering, 2007
Reference
38
Thank You for Your AttentionAny Question?
39