War in The Democratic Republic of Congo

Lecture 13

The Logic of War in the Liberal Vision

• Deteriorating Economic Conditions

• Zero-Sum Politics– No Democratic Tradition of Compromise and

Power Sharing– Politics Becomes a Winner Take All Affair

• Conflict in Environment of Economic Deprivation Often Produces War.

Adding Realism• In the Absence of Prosperity and Democracy,

Peace Becomes Dependent Upon Characteristics of the International System.

• The Power Structure of the International System—Bipolarity vs. Multipolarity.

• The Ability of International Organizations to Act as Effective Deterrents to War.

• Thus, the End of the Cold War May Have Contributed to Warfare in Regions Outside of Western Europe.

African Stability During the Cold War

• External– Colonial Interests and Involvement– Superpower Competition

• Pan-African– The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Pledge:– Respect Colonial Borders– Non-interference in Domestic Politics of Other Countries

• Result: Relative Stability in Africa.• Very “Mearsheimer-esque:” Cold War Conflict

Imposed Stable Borders on African Nations.

Anarchy in Post Cold War Africa

• External: Withdrawal of US and Soviet Support• Regional: Very Weak Regional Institutions• Domestic:

– Economic Collapse—Negative Per Capita GDP Growth during 1980s and 1990s.

– Collapse of State Authority and Transitions to New Political Regimes.

• Emergence of Pervasive Conflict.• Also Very “Mearsheimer-esque:” End of the

Cold War Brings About Resurgent Conflict.

Zaire: The Mobutu Regime• Mobutu and the

Kleptocrats, 1960-1990• US Support as Bulwark

Against Socialism in Africa.• End of Cold War Ends US

Financial Support.• Economic Collapse

– GDP growth negative since 1989, estimated at -8.0 percent in 1992.

• Collapse of Political Authority

Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, or, “The all-conquering warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake”

The “Mobutu Effect”

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

U.S

. D

olla

rs

Per Capita Income

Source: World Bank. World Development Indicators on CD-ROM

War in Zaire

• Precipitating Causes Lie in 1994 Rwandan Conflict.

• Refugees and Hutu Extremists in Zaire.

• Rwanda and Uganda join Forces with Zairian Tutsis to Overthrow Mobutu

• Install Laurent Kabila as President of Democratic Republic of Congo.

• Kabila Alienates Domestic Support, and Does Not Control Hutu Extremists.

• Rwanda and Uganda Begin to Support Congolese Union for Democracy (RCD) Against Kabila. Laurent Kabila

• Angola Supports Kabila.– Involved in Civil War

with UNITA

– Mobutu had supported UNITA, thus Angolan Government Supports Kabila and UNITA supports the RCD

• Namibia: Allied with Angola, thus Fighting in support of Kabila.

• Zimbabwe: Rivalry with Rwanda and Uganda, thus Fighting in support of Kabila

• 700,000 Refugees• 2 Million Dead (?)• Ceasefire, July 1999• UN Peacekeepers Put in

Place (5,537)• Fighting Continues• January 2001, Kabila

Assassinated by Bodyguard

• Kabila’s Son Installed as President

The Role of the UN

• During the War, Role Restricted to Humanitarian Aid

• Since the War, Involved in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking

• Implications for Liberal Vision?

Bigger Point 1

• Collapse of the Cold War Created Anarchic Environment in Large Parts of Africa.

• Lack Effective Regional Institutions.

• Conducive to Balance of Power Politics.

• Increasing Importance of the United Nations.

Bigger Point 2

• Mearsheimer Right, but for the Wrong Continent?• In the Absence of the Liberal Conditions

– Prosperity– Representative Democracy– Institutions

The End of the Cold War has Ushered in a Period of Anarchy in African Politics.

Peace Appears to Depend Upon Ability of UN to Act as Effective Deterrent.