C L I M A T E C H A N G E I N A F R I C A – I M PA C T S, C H A L L E N G E S A N D O P P O R T U N T I E SW O R K S H O P, 3 0 - 3 1 M AY 2 0 1 8

THE BURDEN OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN AFRICA Wangai Ndirangu

30.15.2018

CHANGE IS NOT A MYTH

MOUNT KILIMANJARO’S GLACIERS ARE

MELTING, 80% LOST OVER THE LAST 100

YEARS

Climate variability and climate change –

Theoretical probability distributions for temperatures

The climate is usually defined in terms of a statistical description (mean and variability) of variables such as temperature and precipitation over a period

GLOBAL WARMING (1)

Rise in the average temperature

Global mean surface-temperature change from 1880 to 2017, relative to the 1951–1980 mean

Under global warming, we can still experience global cooling

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 -1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.5

0.8

An

om

aly

(°C

)

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

Land

Ocean

Land and Ocean

An

om

aly

(°C

)A

nom

aly

(°C

)

a

b

c

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

GLOBAL WARMING (2)

Global warming from 2001 using a range of climate models –assuming no mitigation

Stabilisation focused in different population and economic growth scenario

THE PROBLEM OF NATURAL VARIABILITY (1)

Climate is impacted upon by a number of scales of variability

Seasonal

Multi-year (El Nino, La Nina)

Multi-decadal (c. 0.4ºC oscillation in North Atlantic sea surface temperature)

c. 0.8ºCc. 0.4ºC

c. 50 years c. 80 years

CLIMATE VARIABILITY (1)

Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Very Strong

Strong

Moderate

Weak

Weak

Moderate

Strong

El-Nino

La-Nina

OCEANIC NINO INDEX

MANIFESTATION OF CC- WATER RESOURCES IMPACTS

1. Changes in the total amount of water available

Less than normal/average – Drought More than normal/average – FloodsSeasonal total

2. Intensity/severity of extreme events

3. Frequency of extreme events

4. Distribution

5. Timing

6. Higher rate of evaporation

Distribution of weather events

HAZARD AND DISASTERS

Water Situation

Land cover and

use

Water demand and useSurface water resources

Gender and

Poverty

Economic activities

Groundwater

resources

Health and

sanitationBiodiversity and environmental

status

Demography and

educational level

Infrastructural

development

Rainfall and

evaporation

Water quality and

pollution sources

WATER, POPULATION AND VULNERABILITY

% Urban and Urban Growth Rate in Africa,

2011

Region % urban Average annual

urban growth

rate (2005-

2010)

SS-Africa 36.7 3.67

Africa 39.6 3.27

Eastern Africa 23.7 3.90

Middle Africa 41.5 3.94

Northern Africa 51.5 2.14

Southern Africa 58.9 1.82

Western Africa 44.9 3.92

Source: United Nations (2012)

CHALLENGES OF POPULATION AND URBAN GROWTH TRENDS

• Economic growth –extraction of catchment resources

• Urbanization –• Increased water

demand • Waste – water

pollution

• Spatial development footprint – Change in land use and land cover associated service provision

Source: World Economic Forum , 2015

EXAMPLE- IMPACT ON FOOD PRODUCTION

More water required for irrigation, but

Limited by temperature

SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION – PUSHING PRODUCTION TO PERIPHERY

Source: UNDP, Drylands programme, 2012

• Climate change is an added risk/burden NOT the cause of water problems

• Social-economic and environmental conditions are the cause and result of disaster risk

• Population and urbanization –• Increased water

demand • Waste – water

pollution

• Spatialdevelopment footprint

• Economicgrowth and catchment degradation

1. Changes in the total amount of water available

Less than normal/average – Drought

More than normal/average – Floods

Seasonal total

2. Intensity/severity of extreme events

3. Frequency of extreme events

4. Distribution

5. Timing

6. Higher rate of evaporation

Challenges

Scarcity of FRESH

water for social and

economic production

Pollution – siltation

and urban waste

Flood and drought

Scarcity and conflicts

Damage of

infrastructure and

social capital

Soil moisture and

recharge

Opportunities

Rain water capture

and storage

Water use efficiency

Improved land use

practices

Wastewater

treatment

Standard and

maintenance of water

infrastructure

Spatial planning –

Green zones

21

Managing Impacts of Climate Change

Where we are now: What can’t be done?

What is missing in terms of the ideal situation?

The GAP to be filled between the ideal

situation and where we are now

Capacity Needs

Ideal or desired situation: the system

(individual, organisational and

institutional) functioning at full capacity

Capacity

Development

Capacity on:

Evaluation of Water Resources Potential

Water Demand Projection

Disaster Risk Assessment

Strategy Formulation

Implementation, Operation and

Maintenance

Monitoring and Evaluation

Planning

Outputs

National WRM Strategy

Basin Management Plans

Field Observation Baseline Information

Example: National Water Resources

Master Plan

Strategies and plans

based on actual and

fundamental data

Field Observation for Strategy and Implementation

23

Improved health and lower health

expenditure

Economic growth and jobs

created

Enhanced school enrolment and

retention

Safe, adequate, reliable

and affordable water

supplies

Safe, adequate,

sustainable Sanitation

Adequate, reliable

water for

production

Water disaster

risk management

Sustainable Water Management

Stakeholder

engagement &

coordination

Water sector

planning

Resources

Mobilisation

Resources Assessment

Conservation

Monitoring & regulation

Customer Service

Finance & Economics

Facility Operations

Data and information

Renewal

Repairs

Maintenance

Planning

Design

Construction

Knowledge &

Capacity

Development

Asset Management Expansion

INFRASTRUCTUREOPERATIONSWATER RESOURCES

Requir

ed W

ater

Sect

or

Cap

acityEquipment and

Facilities

Resu

lt

Deve

lopm

ent

Pers

pect

ives

Impact

Goal

Sust

ain

a

bility

Outc

om

e

Soci

al -

Econo

mic

Rele

vanc

e

Pro

cess

Org

ani

zationa

l

capaci

ty

Eff

ect

iveness

Inputs

Opera

tiona

l (in

div

idua

l)

capaci

ty

Eff

icie

ncy

✓ Policy and legislation

✓ Institutional design

✓ Leadership& coordination

✓ Financing framework

✓ Accountability Framework

Non-core functions

✓ HRM

✓ Accounting & finance

✓ Procurement

24

BUILD SYSTEMS FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT

INDIVIDUAL

Access & understand

current skills, attitudes

ORGANIZATIONAL

Maximize operational efficiency

& effectiveness of solutions

INSTITUTIONAL

Establish appropriate

institutional structures &

operating environment

DIMENSIONS OF CAPACITY

25

Capacity to provide 4 different climate services levels

1. Basic

2. Essential

3. Full

4. Advanced

PROFILE OF CLIMATE SERVICE PROVIDERS

STAFF

Total = 179

Technical Staff= 23

144, 80%

35, 20%

Males

Females

12%

18%

14%

11%

13%

7%

8%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

Percentage

Ag

e G

rou

p