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8/6/2019 Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy (March 23 2011) (2) (2)
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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.
Power and Knowledge:Shifting Public Perspectives
By Frank Graves
Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy
Toronto, Ontario
March 23, 2011
8/6/2019 Walter Gordon Symposium in Public Policy (March 23 2011) (2) (2)
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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.
Outline
1.0 The Priority of Knowledge and Expertise
2.0 Knowledge Underrepresented and Undervalued
3.0 Faith and Reason
4.0 Limits to Knowledge and Understanding
5.0 The Future and Conclusions
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1.0 The Priority of Knowledge andExpertise
Knowledge is important
Linked to social class, age, and gender
Strongly linked to political ideology and vote intention
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3%
29%
34%24%
9%
Hard evidence of need/impacts
Fairness and social justiceAffordability and costs
Impacts on social values/morality
DK/NR
Most important factor in national decision making
Q. In making important national decisions, which of the following factors do you think should be most important?
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.
8
10
16
21
28
32
57
74
0 20 40 60 80 100
University professors
Journalists
Priests
Bloggers
Scientists
Pollsters
Trust in occupations
Q. How much trust do you have in each of the following occupational groups or individuals?
Politicians
Union leaders
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
% high level (5, 6, 7)
5.4
MEAN
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.9
3.9
4.8
3.0
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2.0 Knowledge Underrepresentedand Undervalued
Broad belief that populism is the dominant political
mode
Equally strong belief it should not be; knowledgeshould rule
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37
46
17
020406080100
12
28
60
0 20 40 60 80 100
Is driven by Should be driven by
Intellectualism and rationaldebate
Populism and commonsense
DK/NR
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
Intellectualism versus populism in politics
Q. Do you think that contemporary politics is/should be driven by intellectualism and rational debate or by populism and
common sense?
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75
62
45
55
34
14
11
26
39
42
54
48
46
52
0 20 40 60 80 100
Have
Should have
Media/Journalists
The Prime Minister
Public Servants
Average Citizens
Lobbyists
Parliamentarians
Power gap: who has/who should have power
Q. Which of the following groups should have/should have the most influence in defining public policies in Canada?*
Experts/Professionals
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
*Presented in series of random paired choices. Per cent indicates
average number of times option is selected over all others.
-41
GAP
+49
+23
+3
+1
-14
-32
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3.0 Faith and Reason
Chief contest is between certainty/morality and
evidence/reason
Certainty and morality are strongly linked toconservatism and religiosity
Links to gender and ethnicity (as well as social class)
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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission. BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
1419
58
8
40 38
16
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Humans were created
by God in the last
10,000 years
Humans evolved over
time, but through
divine guidance
Humans evolved
through natural
selection
DK/NR
EKOS (March 2011) Gallup (December 2010)*
Origins of mankind: Canada versus US
Q. Which of the following statements comes closest to your point of view?
*Source: Gallup poll; December 10-12, 2010 (n=1,019). Question worded as follows:Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings:
1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process;
2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process; or3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so?
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50
6
4
0 20 40 60 80 100
15
71
14
0 20 40 60 80 100
Breakdown by religiousservice attendance
Never
Occasionally
Frequently
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
A priest, rabbi, or otherreligious leader
A psychiatrist or otherprofessional
DK/NR
Base: Those who prefer a priest, rabbi,
or other religious leader
Preferred source of personal guidance
Q. If you were facing a deep personal crisis, which of the following individuals would you prefer to consult?
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4.0 Limits to Knowledge andUnderstanding
Lagged rebound effect on evidence and crime
1 in 4 Canadians are anti-science, anti-expertise
Broad but mixed concerns about impacts ofdemocracy and equality
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Copyright 2011. No reproduction without permission.
55
43
31
18
0 20 40 60 80 100
4
38
30
29
0 20 40 60 80 100
Breakdown by age
Under 25
25-44
44-64
65 and over
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
Perceived changes in violent crime rates
Q. Over the past 10 years, would you say that the crime rate in Canada has been ... ?
Decreasing (1-3)
Staying the same (4)
Increasing (5-7)
DK/NR
Base: Those who say increasing
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10
30
50
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Decreasing (1-3) Staying the same (4) Increasing (5-7)
Tracking perceived changes in violent crime rates
BASE: Canadians; most recent data point March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
Q. Over the past 10 years, would you say that the crime rate in Canada has been ... ?
38%
30%29%
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1
26
9
64
0 20 40 60 80 100
Neither agree nor disagree (4)
Agree (5-7)
DK/NR
Disagree (1-3)
Attitudes towards climate change
Q. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the following statement: I dont believe all this talk about greenhouse
gas emissions causing global climate change.
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
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1
4
3
56
39
11
19
22
17
23
36
69
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither agree nor disagree (4) Agree (5-7)
It really bothers me that hard scientific evidence isnt shaping public policy to the degree that it shouldbe.
I am worried that science is going too far and is hurting society rather than helping it.
I worry that the rule of experts and professionals produces elitism and inequality.
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
Concerns over science and expertise
Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
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5.0 The Future and Conclusions
The public strongly believes that intellectual-scientific
approaches will dominate in the future Social media and Web 2.0 are pro-knowledge but
eschew traditional vertical authority (anti-gatekeeping)
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7
55
31
7
0 20 40 60 80 100
6
43
32
20
020406080100
Q. Overall, do you think that the use of hard evidence and professional expertise in public decision making is/will be
more or less important than it was 10 years ago/10 years from now?
10 years ago 10 years from now
Less important (1-3)
About the same (4)
More important (5-7)
DK/NR
Perceived importance of hard evidence in decision making
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
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3
49
17
32
0 20 40 60 80 100
Neither agree nor disagree (4)
Agree (5-7)
DK/NR
Disagree (1-3)
Use of social media in constructing knowledge and expertise
Q. To what extent to you agree or disagree with the following statement: In an era of social media such as Facebook,
Twitter, and Wikipedia, knowledge and expertise can be constructed from ordinary citizens.
BASE: Canadians; March 15-17, 2011 (n=984)
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Conclusions (i)
Hard knowledge is seen as hugely important principle for societal decisionmaking (trailing only democracy)
There is a strong sense that knowledge, science, and expertise are undervalued
Contested terrain revolves around relative salience of reason and knowledgeversus moralism and certainty
The fault lines are deep and these world views are relatively incompatible
The rational-empirical view is much more prevalent, particularly among younger,more educated Canada
There is a dramatic left-right split and it is also strongly connected to secularism
and religiosity
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Conclusions (ii)
The recent political success of populism is paradoxical and may reflect lowrecognition and the weakness of the rational view to handle values
The challenge to reason and knowledge comes from the political right; it isrooted in a search for certainty and morality and a discomfort with evidence and
ambiguity
Populism is viewed as an interruption, not a structural shift
Public conviction about the future
Demography forces favour educated
Lagged but rational rebound on crimes rates
Future complicated by the digital generation and the flattening of intellectualauthority
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FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Frank Graves, President
EKOS Research Associates
p. 613.235.7215