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From visioning future to make it true
Walking the Talk Prof. Adrian CURAJ [email protected]
FRAME Monitoring Peer Learning Activity- Bucharest, Romania, 28-29 October 2014
If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable
Seneca
Outline
Integrating foresight and strategy
Governmental foresight
Walking the talk:
Message from and for FRAME initiative
Conclusions
Foresight: ‒ Systematic: well designed approach; ‒ Participatory: stakeholders participation (inclusiveness), collective
intelligence; ‒ Future oriented / Future intelligence-gathering: studying trends and
drivers, their interactions and possible disruptions allowing more evidence-based policy approach and an enhanced level of anticipation of what lies ahead;
‒ Action oriented Vision-building- exploring of alternative scenarios; common vision; self-fulfilling prophecy based on consensus building Shaping decision-making; empower participants to move beyond the mere exploration of the future to actually shape the future through more proactive thinking; Mobilizing stakeholders; supports the pathway to effective policy implementation through joined up approaches
Integrating foresight and strategy
Introduction Main foresight projects
Type of project UEFISCSU /UEFISCDI role
First Foresight exercise in Science and Innovation in Romania (2005-2006) The elaboration of the National Strategy for Research, Development and Innovation 2007-2013
National Coordinator
Healthy and Safe Food for the Future (2007-2009) A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia (FutureFood6)
FP6 Partner
Research Infrastructures: Foresight and Impact (RIFI) (2010-2011)
FP7 Coordinator
Quality and leadership for Romanian Higher education (2009-2011)
National (Structural Funds)
Coordinator
Forward Visions on the European Research Area (VERA) 2012-2013
FP7 Partner
For-Moldova 2012 International Coordinator
Introduction Main foresight projects
Type of project UEFISCSU /UEFISCDI role
First Foresight exercise in Science and Innovation in Romania (2005-2006) The elaboration of the National Strategy for Research, Development and Innovation 2007-2013
National Coordinator
Healthy and Safe Food for the Future (2007-2009) A Technology Foresight Project in Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia (FutureFood6)
FP6 Partner
Research Infrastructures: Foresight and Impact (RIFI) (2010-2011)
FP7 Coordinator
Quality and leadership for Romanian Higher education (2009-2011)
National (Structural Funds)
Coordinator
Forward Visions on the European Research Area (VERA) 2012-2013
FP7 Partner
For-Moldova 2012 International Coordinator
Governmental foresight
Foresight themes
Foresight work
Governmental policy definition
Tekes model
RDI Strategy 2007-2013 Future of Higher Education – Romania RDI Strategy 2014-2020 – Smart specialization; Public Administration Strategy 2014-2020
Romanian Higher Education 2025
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“
Preferred image of higher education
in 2025
„A world of ...“
“for which we believe in …”
Values and institutional framework
Action lines
“and accordingly we act for…”
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ 1. Identification of relevant participants
Viral survey 1932 respondents nominated in rounds other 6353
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Identification of topics of interest
Three brainstorming sessions: Students Professors Business reprsentatives
Using i-Lab
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Identification of topics of interest
Semantic analysis of the literature Hundred of titles on higher education available in a structured library
.
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Domains of interest
Universities and …
… HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT Correlation with the labor market Life long learning Certification of professional skills Creativity, skills for life and entrepreneurship Inter-disciplinarity and flexibility of human capital
… KNOWLEDGE GENERATION
• Correlation of pedagogical and research activities • Research universities • Particularities of basic, engineering and social research
... BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT •Universities and innovation clusters •Public-private partnership for innovation •IPR in university-business collaboration • Innovation infrastructures in universities
… SOCIAL VALUES •University as promoter of social values • Accessibility of studies • Universities and local development •Universities and information society
THEIR INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
•Internationalization of higher education •Positioning on the global market of education •Positioning on the global knowledge market •European integration and national brand
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Expert panels
15 persons per panel
May 2009 – Ianuary 2010 Elaborated Current Assessment Drivers of change 2025 Stakeholders mapping
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Debating the current assessment
8 October 2009
• 180 persons
• Parallel and plenary sessions
8-11 December 2009 - 3 days scenario workshop for the panels - 6 international facilitators
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ First version of the success scenarios
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ The four scenarios University of life and career
Knowledge constellation
Athenaeum
Blue ocean
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Further developing the scenarios
Diferenţierea universităţilor se face între universităţi cu misiune de creaţie/cercetare la nivel internaţional şi cele active la nivel naţional, local şi regional. Misiunile se diferenţiază prin componente ca instruirea şi învăţarea, cercetarea şi creaţia, serviciile pentru comunitate.
DDiiffeerreennțțiieerreeaa
uunniivveerrssiittăățțiilloorr pprriinn
mmiissiiuunnee
31
Sistemul de învățământ superior românesc garantează oportunități egale pentru cetățeni în privința accesului la cunoaștere. Învățământul superior este responsabil în raport cu societatea, iar instituțiile sunt respectate de către aceasta din urmă, bucurându-se de vizibilitate și prestigiu.
RRăăssppuunnddeerree ssoocciiaallăă 29
Asimilarea cunoaşterii conduce la integrarea individului în comunităţi ştiinţifice, profesionale sau orientate spre rezolvarea anumitor probleme.
CCoommuunniittăăţţii ddee pprraaccttiiccii 3
Problemele legate de mediu devin o preocupare ce vizează toate aspectelor vieţii economice.
PPrroovvooccăărriillee mmeeddiiuulluuii 44
Universitatea atrage persoane puternic conectate în reţelele internaţionale de cercetare.
Universitatea - conector în reţelele internaţionale de cunoaştere
12
7-10 cards from each scenario
8 cards describing
the 2025 context The jokers
Vision „Romanian Higher Education 2025“ Stakeholders contributing to the scenarios
Bucharest, 25-29 January 2010
A one day event for each panel
- 40 stakeholders
- “World cafe” combined with cards
and role playing …innovation
University of career and life
Knowledge constelation
Atheneum
Blue ocean
Diversity with 3 examples Inovatio
Regio
Scientia
University of carrer and life
Knowledge constelation
Atheneum
Blue ocean
Diversity with 3 examples Inovatio
Regio
Scientia
28 policies by 9 panels
• Governance, leadership, management
• Research, Innovation and Intellectual Property Protection
• Academic Profession
• Regional and Local Development
• Knowledge Society
• Ethics and Social Values
• Globalisation / Internationalisation
• Qualifications and Competences
• Quality of Education
ELPHI 2.0 questionnaire
Dynamic ranking of policies’ impact
ELPHI questionnaire – second round
Seeds for the future
Vision „Romanian higher education in 2025“
„A world of...“
“for which we believe in …”
“and accordingly we act…”
Vision „Romanian higher education in 2025“
A world of…
Vision „Romanian higher education in 2025“
„A world of ...“
“for which we believe in …”
“and accordingly we act…”
Diversity of institutions and programmes in response to diverse needs. Personalization of educational in accordance with life and work paths. Transparency as a mean for grounded decisions in a diverse environment.
Personalization Personalized learning is a consequence of the modern peoples’ need for individuality; they no longer learn to occupy a present place but to define freely and dynamically their own roles!
Transparency Transparency is a practical value. Without it, one cannot speak of diversity or personalization, or, just as well, of fairness, equal opportunities, honesty or the right to choose. Transparency is a tangible value: you feel it when, for instance, you manage to get fast a satisfying answer to a routine problem, whether administrative or even theoretical.
Diversity Diversity is the answer of the university system to the students' and employers' need for personalization. Diversity is determined by actual needs while institutional missions undertaken embody these needs.
Green Book 2015
„A world of ...“
“for which we believe in …”
“and accordingly we act…”
Green Book 2015 First wave of 20 universities enter a three phase process: 1. Demonstrating improved connections to stakeholders
2. Plans for improve programmes and services
3. Institutional change
Lines of transformation
1. Personalization and diversity
• Expansion of study programmes types (including short term programmes )
• Diversification and of existing programes
• New sources for financing university research
2. Increasing institutional responsibility
• Clear information for all stakeholders
• Strengthening the reputation mechanisms
3. Improving capability of universities in relation with their missions
• A stronger orientation towards private financing
• Improving institutional capacity
• Reform of legal status
A possible transition scenario
An approach in waves
– based on the interest expressed by the universities
– with a financial support for transition
– oriented towards autonomy, leadership and responsibility
– with the option of changing the legal status.
http://carteaverde.edu2025.ro
http://www.facebook.com/Calatoriinviitor2025
“Innovation” and Creating new capabilities Innovation Innovation in the techniques and technology supporting foresight studies – Dynamic Delphi; Internationalization of future studies/ foresight/ forward-looking (150 experts from all continents) – Bucharest Dialogues; Mutual Learning Workshops
www.forwiki.eu
Workshop: Systems Thinking for Foresight, Bucharest (Romania), September 2009 Workshop: Scenario Building in Higher Education, Bucharest (Romania), October 2009 Workshop: Jointly Shaping and Launching the Foresight Wiki, April 2010 Workshop: Integrating Futures Methodologies, Bucharest, June 2010 Workshop: 21st Century Higher Education: Leadership, Innovation and Human Capital Development - Euro-Atlantic, Black Sea and Caspian Sea Area Studies, July 2010 Workshop: Foresight in the University, Bucharest, September 2010. Workshop: Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective, November 2010 Workshop: Collaborative Methods for Foresight: Delphi, Scenarios, and Models, April 2011 Workshop: Vision Building, May 2011 Workshop: Background Research for Scenario Building: Economic Clusters, Knowledge Economy and Development Strategies, May 2011 Workshop: Crazy Foresight, June 2011 Workshop: Trans-national Foresight for a Black Sea Higher Education Area, September 2011 Workshop: Strategic Intelligence for Extended Regional Coherence, August 2011
Blueprint of Doing Foresight in Universities http://edu2025.ro/UserFiles/File/The%20FOR-UNI%20Blueprint.pdf
“Innovation” and Creating new capabilities Inputs for HE Policies, Bologna Ministerial Conference: FoHE – Bologna Researches Conference: “ Future of Higher Education-Bologna Researchers Conference” 2011 (EHEA principles; Learning and teaching; Quality assurance; Governance; Funding;
Differentiation; Mobility; Foresight)
R&I Strategy for Smart Specialization 2014-2020
Knowledge maps
“ the value of big data lies in our ability to extract insights and make better decisions”- Institute of Advanced
Analytics
RDI Strategy 2014-2020 – Smart specialization; Big Data at work or “what problem(s) we have tried to solve?”
•Exploration and discovery
13 fields for structuring the debate
Online exploratory consultation
1500+ proposals
90 microvisions
Knowledge maps
13 panels
90 microvisions ranked
Key stakeholders
meeting
Online real-time Delphi 29 fields
The process for identification of priorities
•44
29 fields have
been identified by integrating different
inputs
Agro-Food ICT Intelligent systems Health Energy Pharmaceuticals Environment Security Space Materials Biotechnologies Transport Socio-economic
Aeronatutics
Agro
Food
Water
Arts & humanities
Auto/ transport
Automatisation
Biotech
Constructions
Education
Electronics
Energy
Pharma
Nuclear phys.
Geophysics
ICT
Mathematics
Materials (new)
Veterinarian
Environment
Nanotech
Naval
Optics
Patrimony
Health
Security
Socio-economic
Space
Textiles
Data analytics proposed clustering
13 fields have been validated in a key stakeholders’ meeting for structuring the consultations
•45
Knowledge maps
Export & import (Automotive Ind.)
Geografical Distribution of Companies
R&D Projects (electronics)
Institutional signatures (R&D projects, publications, patents)
Radar innovation
1500 weak signals to date Target: 10 000 Types:
Emerging technologies (Ex. 3D printing of human organs)
Innovation in services (Ex. Complex Smoke Detectors connected to the smartphone)
Changes in trends (Ex. Alternative Energy cheaper than classical/fossil one in Australia)
Behavioral Changes (ex. majority of the people use mobile internet access)
Key actors’ actions (ex. Pentagon uses Twitter for predictions)
Discoveries (ex. Antibiotics against anthrax)
Method: human analysts + scanning the net using neural networks, and semantic analysis
Horizon scanning and structured repository of weak signals selected from global news flow (volume, velocity, variety +veracity, volatility)
What is Big data?
the “ 3Vs” • Volume • Velocity real-time data analytics of different
flows • Variety structured, semi-structured and even
incomplete data
+ “2Vs” • Veracity reliability of the data • Volatility sensitivity of the data
Now at affordable price.
Deep Computing- Ultrafast computing that is combined with sophisticated analytical software to enable organizations to analyze, find patterns in, and take action on the data that they have gathered.
Favorable wind?
Does or doesn’t know!
Walking the talk!
Conclusions?
Right Data: Internal /external Right Models Right Transformational Capabilities
What problem we try to solve?
Public Administration Strategy 2014-2020 Lessons learned: - Use any excuse to run your foresight exercises, learn, develop your capabilities for strategic policy intelligence and share; - Stakeholders inclusiveness; - Policy dialogues.
Skills …Demand and Supply Entrepreneurial Skills….
Walk the talk - IMPLEMENTATION!
Change Management
Be a visionary and innovate!
www.uefiscdi.ro; www.forhe.ro
Thank you! 11/3/2014 59
