W. Wooden, D. McCarthy, B. Luzum

EOP EOP Prediction Prediction

UsersUsers

User InformationUser Information

Sources of InformationSources of Information Survey questionnairesSurvey questionnaires Product usageProduct usage Interactive feedbackInteractive feedback

Future Expectations?Future Expectations?

Who are the Users?Who are the Users?

Operational System Engineers

Academics Scientists

ScientificOperational

Why do they want predictions?Why do they want predictions?

Positioning

andNavigation

Research

Pointing

Timekeeping

What do they want?What do they want?Users’ Manual

DataAccurateDependableUser friendly

DELIVER ON DEMAND

SOFTWARE With Test Data

It depends on the It depends on the applicationapplication

General Requirements One unique set of IERS

prediction products Easily accessible User friendly Reliable Meets users’ needs for

Accuracy Update frequency Spacing Prediction interval Metadata

Accuracy?

>0.001"<0.001"

Operational and Scientific Users of Polar Motion Predictions

>0.000 1s<0.000 1s

Operational and Scientific Users of UT1-UTC Predictions

Prediction Length?

~ 30 days~ 1 year

Operational Users

~30 days~1 year

Scientific Users

Update Frequency?

weeklydaily

Operational Users

~30 days~1 year

Scientific Users

Spacing?

<1 day1 day>1day

Operational Users

Scientific Users(Some also want analytical expressions)

<1 day1 day>1day

How do they want to receive predictions?

AnalyticalTables Operational Users

Scientific UsersAnalyticalTables

Future Users?Future Users?

Probably about the same Probably about the same mix of operational and mix of operational and scientific usersscientific users

Some “specialty” usersSome “specialty” users Real-time availabilityReal-time availability

Particularly UT1Particularly UT1 Order of magnitude Order of magnitude

improvement in accuracyimprovement in accuracy New ProductsNew Products