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w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mega Trends for Newspaper Publishers
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mega trends Internationalisation
Source: Boeing market outlook 2004
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mega trends Internationalisation
• Companies looking overseas for corporate growth
• Local editionising of international brands
• Newspapers seeking expats and travellers
• International partnerships of national titles
• AOL Time Warner• Bertlesman• Bauer• CanWest• Gannett
• Alma• Shibsted• Bonnier• Burda• Forbes
•G&J•Hachette •MTV•News Corp•Vivendi.
• Australian Consolidated• Independent News and
Media• Modern Times Group• Mondadori (Fininvest)• Sanoma
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
• The world’s most successful newspapers appeal more to women than to men.
• General trend of high female readership driving better circulation performance.
Performance drivers - Gender
Otago Daily Times
The Press
The Dominion Post
The New Zealand Herald
R2 = 0.6386-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
47 48 49 50 51 52
Readership mix % female
Cir
cula
tio
n v
aria
nce
(%
Y/Y
) 2
005
/20
03
Austrian Daily Newspaper Market Impact of female readership on circulation
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
Australia`
Austria
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
New formatsRecent history
30.5 31.0 31.4 33.1 34.0 36.0
2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 4.4 4.0
67.2 66.6 66.1 64.4 61.6 60.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
% tabloid % other % Broadsheet
61 newspapers moved to tabloid last year
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
• Aftenposten• Belfast Telegraph • Blick• Bohuslaningen• Borås Tidning• Buks Free Press• Dagens Nyheter• Der Standard• DNEVNIK • DuMont Schauberg• El Mercurio• Evening Gazzete• Evening Press• Gazet van Antwerpen• Göteborgs-Posten• Het Parool• Hufvudstadsbladet
• The Independent
• Information
• Intention
• The Irish Independent
• The Irish News
• Itä-Häme
• Krant van West-Vlaanderen
• La Dernierre Heure Les Sports
• Nerikes Allehanda
• New Straits Times
• New Sunday Times
• New Zealand Herald
• New Sunday Times
• New Zealand Herald
• News
• Östersunds-Posten• Östgöta Correspondenten• Press and Journal• The Scotsman• Skånska Dagbladet• Sundsvalls Tidning• Sydsvenska Dagbladet• The Times• Trouw• Upsala Nya Tidning• Vaesterbottens-Kuriren• Vestmanlands Läns Tidning• Wall Street Journal• Welt Kompakt• Western Mail• Yucaip
New formatsRecent change
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
New formatsCirculation patterns
Year to 18 months
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Think now
Source: various/SFN
Over 155 free daily titles worldwide> 22 million copies distributed daily
0
5
10
15
20
25
Other free dailies
Metro
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Free dailies Readership patterns (European Cities)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
13-24's 25-34's
Free daily
Paid daily
Source: Gallup TNS Metro International
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44 WPT / Amsterdam School of Communications Research (ASCoR)
Free newspapers Share of Free Dailies vs Paid Dailies
Share of free dailies in total newspapers
4029 27 25 21 20 20 17 16
118 6 6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Spain
Italy
Denm
ark
Portu
gal
Hunga
ry
Franc
e
Sweden
Nethe
rland
s
Belgium
Poland
Finlan
dUK
Austri
a
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Free dailiesCirculation v advertising
Armenia
Australia
Belgium
Canada
CroatiaCzech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FinlandFrance
Germany
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
JapanLatvia
Lebanon
Luxembourg
Macedonia
Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Slovakia
Spain
Sri Lanka
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
R2 = 0.1752
0
500
1000
0 250 500Circulation revenue per copy
Ad
vert
isin
g r
even
ue
per
co
py
Source: World Press Trends / SFN
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
New formatsConfiguration
Broadsheet Berlinner
Tabloid A4
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
New formatsAlternative formats
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Springer Germany ExtensionWelt Kompact
Youth street version of Die Welt
Springer Poland NPD FaktNow No. 1 in Poland
Expected to launch in other markets;
Holtzbrink Germany HybridNews
20 Cents
Low price street papers amalgamating resources for core titles.
DMGT UK Extension Standard LiteFree “early” edition of London Evening paper
Pearson UK Extension FT Lite Free “early” edition of FT
InnovationNew launches and hybrids (recent)
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
InnovationNew launches and hybrids (underway)
Agora Poland NPD ? New daily starting Oct 2005
N. Presse Passau
Poland NPD ? Free daily 900.000 copies
Ringier Serbia NPD Blic New daily
Springer Slovakia NPD Novy Cas first Sunday
Caltagirone Italy ? Leggo free daily with regional editions
Sanomat Finland NPD Bi-weekly free 450.000 copies
Fellner Austria NPD New daily
?? UK NPD City AMNew free business daily in London
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Markets in context News on the Internet - Usage and value
Media consumption trends Impact of online experience in reading online newspapers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
<1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 5> yrs
years of online experience
% o
f o
nli
kn
e u
se
rs w
ho
re
ad
a n
ew
sp
ap
er UK
GermanyFranceItalySpain
average
Source: Forrester Consumer Technographics 2004
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Spain in context Internet Y/Y variance advertising share
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Spain UK Europe
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Classified migration
Turnover $18 million.
Bought by eBay for$340 million.
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Classified migration
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Classified migration
Speurders.nl Marktplaats.nl
Ford 7,210 3,055
Volkswagen 16,165 7,365
Mercedes 8,231 3,072
Opel 11,885 5,102
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
ConsumerConsumer
MediumMedium
IntermediaryIntermediary
GoodsGoods
The new relationship Disintermediation
StimulusStimulus
ChoiceChoice
TransactionTransaction
FulfilmentFulfilment
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
ConsumerConsumer
GoodsGoods
ReaderReader
EventsEvents
The new relationship Disintermediation
MediumMedium
IntermediaryIntermediary
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mobile revolution
Old Industry Threat New Industry
Records RadioMusic
Business
Film TelevisionHome
Video
Newspapers MobileCommunity
Communication
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mobile revolution
Community
meets content,
meets access,
meets immediacy.
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mobile revolution Mobile evolution
Media consumer trends Uptake of mobile technologies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3G/UMTSGPRSGSM
Source: Forrester
Wireless
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mobile revolution Complementary goalsAsahi Shimbun’s audience
Source: Asahi Shimbun
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Mobile
asahi.com
Newspaper
under19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 over 60
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
The New News The invisible media
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
The New News
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
The New News
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
The New News The invisible media
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
The New NewsThe new reporter
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Think ahead
Free to consume…. Free to contribute….Gather
Aggregate
Package
Channel
Distribute
Market
Self select
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Norway interacts Austria interacts
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Norway interacts• 10,000 readers now send “content” every day;
• Active programme of polls and participation
• Newsroom established “portal” to handle content management
Austria interacts• 100,000 of 350,000 citizens
appeared in the paper or website last year;
• 1,500 are members of 14 community forums
• Established wireless network through circulation area 350,000 people) enabling free internet access for all subscribers.
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Mobile revolution Communication/Commerce - personal
Revenue = $13
Revenue = $40
Switzerland interacts
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Strategy to exploit the New NewsParticipation is a marketing device.
Gather
Aggregate
Package
Channel
Distribute
Market
• Encourage readers to send stories.
• Incentivise participation through subscription/casual payment
• Encourage readers to participate across channels,
•sending text messages,
•responding to polls,
•joining forums
• Adopt channel strategies to attract new (particularly younger readers)
• Recognise (and incentivise use of other channels
• Utilise channel benefits to promote other services
• Widen contextual services, to deliver revenue streams
• Promote participation as a unique benefit
• Encourage remote local “clubs”, and interactions
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Strategy to exploit the New NewsIndustry threat is greater than title threat
Newspaper industry must redefine its definition of competition• Identify points in value chain from which non-
competitive synergise can be derived• See readers and advertisers as partners and
participants• Offer a common response to pirating (googlenews),
and un-controlled online publishing• Create nation networks for classified
w w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o mw w w . f u t u r e o f t h e n e w s p a p e r . c o m15:44
Thank you