CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

W. Marzocchi Seismic Hazard Center

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

CSEP in Italy

  August 1, 2009, a CSEP experiment in Italy started (ended July 31, 2014)

  EU testing center is at ETH Zurich

  First testing region in EU is Italy

  18 five-ten years forecasting models have been submitted (M 5+)

  5 three-months models (M 4+)

  5 one-day models (M 4+)

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

CSEP in Italy: where we are now?

  The experiment started on August 1, 2009, and it is ended recently, on July 31, 2014.

  The official catalog is available until Dec 31, 2012 (Emilia earthquakes & legal issues)

  The testing center at ETH in Zurich are running the forecasts until Dec. 31, 2012 in order to get some preliminary results.

  The interest about the experiment was initially biased towards long-term models (RELM-like), but due to the need to test OEF models, the interest shifted towards the shorter forecasting time intervals.

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

Philosophy of OEF_Italy system (a.k.a. Cassandra): transparency, reproducibility and testability.

This philosophy fits well the ICEF requirements because it guarantees that the scientific information delivered is authoritative, timely and in a proper format

  Authoritativeness is given by the stakeholders (we need to convince them; CSEP testing is an excellent solution)

  Timely means continuously (sporadic forecasts imply that the hazard/risk do not change when the forecasts is not delivered; overlapping with the decision-making)

  Proper format means quantitative. Only quantitative forecasts can be used for a rational decision making and allow citizens to compare the occurrence of different events.

OEF in Italy

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

The 1-day forecasts (the palette represents the rate of M 4+) Daily forecasts released at 8:00 AM (no overlaps)

OEF in Italy: how

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

ENSEMBLE forecasting model. Each model is weighted according to its forecasting performances (it is also possible to estimate the epistemic uncertainties)

Selected models (constraints) They must be submitted to at least one CSEP experiment

OEF in Italy

No singles models are used!

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

OEF in Italy: how

04/16/05 04/16/06 04/16/07 04/15/08 04/15/09 04/15/10 04/15/11 04/14/12 04/14/130

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

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9000

Time

Cum

ulat

ive

|LO

GLI

K|

STEP−LGETES−FMCETAS−LMBAYESIAN−ENSAMBLE

Cumulative loglikelihood of three 1-day forecasting models (used to assign weights)

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

ENSEMBLE forecasting model allows us to provide estimations of the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. This is important for testing.

OEF in Italy: how

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10

5

10

15

e

Prob

abili

ty d

ensi

ty fu

nctio

n

R=1R=10R=100

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

OEF in Italy: how

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

Evolution of the weekly probability with time for the selected area: updated every day or after a M3.5+

OEF in Italy: how

CPS presentation, June 13, 2014

Open issues

  The CSEP forecasts are for 1-day and 3-months. OEF is using 1-week.

  Comparing results using the official and the real-time catalog.

  Need to testing ensemble models.

  Need to strengthen the testing phase (maybe a major restyling is needed)

OEF in Italy