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R K Global Research Team
W€€KL¥ CU`$O` 2nd February 2013
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 2
Index
Content Slide No.
Global Markets Outlook 3
Domestic Market Outlook 4
Market Statistics 5
Fund Flow Analysis 6
Domestic Economic Indicators 7-8
Commodity Prices 9-10
Currencies 11
Global Economic Calendar 12
R K Global Research Coverage Snapshot 13
Contact Us 14
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 3
Global Market Outlook Market This Week US companies kept expanding headcounts in January and revisions to previous months’ showed even bigger gains as the US job market made further strides. Payrolls increased by 157,000 workers following a revised 196,000 gain the prior month and a 247,000 jump in November. Revisions added 127,000 jobs to the tally in the last two months of 2012. A separate survey of households showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 7.9% from 7.8%. Brighter employment prospects, which will help lessen the pain for consumers of a higher payroll tax, sent the Dow Jones above 14,000 for the first time since 2007. At the same time, a jobless rate that Federal Reserve policy makers have said remains too high means the central bank is likely to keep pumping money into financial markets. The NASDAQ gained 0.9% for the week, while the DJIA gained 0.8%. On the European side, European stocks climbed the most in two weeks, paring the biggest weekly drop this year, as US payrolls and manufacturing growth increased in January and BT Group Plc reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. The euro touched the highest level against the dollar in 14 months as the European Central Bank’s balance sheet contracted while the Federal Reserve said it would continue pumping money into the US economy. The FTSE 100 rose 1% for the week, while the CAC 40 lost 0.1% and DAX lost 0.3% for the week. Asian stocks rose this week, with the regional benchmark index capping a three-month rally, as Japanese equities gained on earnings and a pickup in Chinese industrial profits highlighted the region’s growth momentum. The Shanghai Composite gained 5.0%, followed by Nikkei (2.4%), Straits Times (0.7%) and Hang Seng (0.6%).
Outlook for Next Week Earnings have exceeded expectations, the housing and labor markets have strengthened, lawmakers in Washington no longer seem to be the roadblock that they were for most of 2012, and money has returned to stock funds again. Heading into another busy week of earnings, the equity market is knocking on the door of all-time highs due to positive sentiment in stocks, and that can't be ignored entirely. European markets will stick to the earnings forecast too. The Asian markets will however follow global cues and also reforms in specific countries that have been just taken.
Indices* (%) 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD
Nasdaq -0.2 4.1 4.0 6.8 10.3 20.6
Straits Times 0.4 3.6 8.5 7.6 13.0 24.0
DAX -1.0 2.1 6.0 15.0 17.5 28.0
Sensex -1.6 1.0 6.6 14.6 14.3 27.5
Hang Seng 0.6 4.7 8.7 19.7 16.7 28.7
Dow Jones -0.3 5.8 4.7 6.2 9.0 13.4
CAC 40 -1.2 2.5 7.4 12.8 10.8 15.8
Nikkei 225 1.9 7.2 24.5 28.9 26.4 31.7
FTSE 100 -0.1 6.4 7.1 10.6 8.4 12.6
Shanghai 4.1 5.1 13.4 12.3 5.2 8.5
Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research; * % return as on 2 Feb'13
Date Time* Country Event Unit A F P
28-Jan 7:00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Percentage 1.30% 0.80% 1.20%
28-Jan 8:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m Percentage -4.30% 0.50% 1.60%
29-Jan 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 58.6 64.8 66.7
30-Jan 3:41pm EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 4.17|1.3 4.48|1.5
30-Jan 6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Thousand 192K 164K 185K
30-Jan 7:00pm USD Advance GDP q/q Percentage -0.10% 1.10% 3.10%
31-Jan 12:45am USD FOMC Statement
31-Jan 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims Thousand 368K 362K 330K
1-Feb 6:30am CNY Manufacturing PMI Index 50.4 51.1 50.6
1-Feb 7:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change Thousand 157K 161K 196K
1-Feb 7:00pm USD Unemployment Rate Percentage 7.9% 7.8% 7.8%
1-Feb 8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Index 53.1 50.8 50.7
Source: Forex Pros, R K Global Research; A=Actual; F=Forecast; P=Previous, *IST
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 4
Domestic Market Outlook Market this Week Key benchmark indices edged lower after the Reserve Bank of India while announcing a reduction of its key policy lending rate by 25 bps after a monetary policy review on 29 January 2013 signaled that there is less room for aggressive policy rate cuts amid any negative surprise emanating from inflation and the twin deficits. The Sensex, slipped below the psychological 20,000 mark. The Nifty fell below the psychological 6000 mark. The market was volatile as traders rolled over positions in the F&O segment from the January 2013 series to February 2013 series. The January 2013 F&O contracts expired on Thursday, 31 January 2013. The Sensex declined 322.34 points or 1.6% to 19718.19 in the week. The Nifty declined 75.75 points or 1.24% to 5998.90. The Mid-Cap index declined 0.1% and the BSE index dropped 1.21%. Though, markets drowned but the sentiment improved after official data showed that the unemployment rate in the Euro zone remained unchanged at 11.7% in December, compared to market expectations for a mild escalation. Separately, Markit research group said that Spain's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 46.1 in January from a reading of 44.6 the previous month, while the Euro Zone's manufacturing PMI ticked up to 47.9 in January from 47.5. Investors were also positive for the US data on nonfarm payrolls data scheduled to release later today after Wednesday's ADP nonfarm payroll report showed that the U.S. private sector added 192,000 jobs in January, above expectations for an increase of 165,000.
Outlook for Next Week Last year, India accounted for 50% of inflow to Asia excepting Japan. And in January so far India garnered close to 80% of inflow to Asia excepting Japan. Clearly, a lot of investors are enthused about the kind or reform initiatives that the government has announced and the focus will be on the successful implementation of the initiatives. The focus on the stock market is currently on Q3 December 2012 results. Investors and analysts will closely watch the management commentary that would accompany the result which could cause revision in their future earnings forecast of the company for the current year and or next year. Bank of Baroda unveils Q3 results on Monday, 4 February 2013. Cipla unveils Q3 results on Wednesday, 6 February 2013. ACC and Ambuja Cement announce Q4 December 2012 results on Thursday, 7 February 2013. Mahindra & Mahindra, Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries and Hindalco Industries unveil Q3 results on Friday, 8 February 2013. Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Services PMI for December 2012 on Tuesday. Asian markets will on Monday, 4 February 2013, react to the influential US non-farm payrolls data for January 2013, which will be released on Friday, 1 February 2013.
Indices * (%) 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD
NSE - Nifty Junior 0.3 -1.5 11.9 22.1 24.1 48.0
NSE - Smallcap Index -0.6 -3.4 6.2 12.2 13.9 34.1
NSE - CNX Midcap -0.2 -2.8 6.7 15.6 16.3 37.1
BSE - Midcap -0.1 -3.2 5.2 14.8 17.4 35.8
NSE - Midcap 50 -1.4 -3.9 4.9 11.3 8.2 31.2
BSE - Smallcap -1.2 -5.3 0.2 8.2 7.3 27.0
NSE - CNX 500 -0.8 -0.2 6.8 15.3 16.0 32.6
NSE - CNX 200 -0.9 0.1 7.0 15.7 16.1 32.6
BSE - 500 Index -0.8 -0.2 6.7 15.1 15.6 32.0
BSE - 200 Index -0.8 0.2 7.1 15.5 15.9 32.3
NSE - CNX 100 -1.0 0.5 7.1 15.6 16.0 32.0
BSE - 100 Index -0.9 0.6 7.3 15.7 15.7 31.6
S&P CNX Nifty -1.2 0.8 6.3 14.5 14.6 29.4
Sensex -1.6 1.0 6.6 14.6 14.3 27.5
Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research; * % return as on 2 Feb'13
Indices * (%) 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD
BSE - FMCG 1.7 -0.2 5.2 17.1 45.7 49.0
BSE - Bankex -0.7 -0.6 11.3 21.0 26.6 57.6
BSE - Capital Goods -2.9 -5.0 -4.4 7.6 3.4 28.9
BSE - Realty 1.3 2.0 22.7 33.9 28.3 61.5
BSE - Auto -1.7 -5.5 3.3 19.5 15.5 35.3
Sensex -1.6 1.0 6.6 14.6 14.3 27.5
BSE - Metal -0.7 -6.9 2.9 1.1 -11.1 12.5
BSE - Power -1.3 -2.8 -1.0 2.0 -7.4 9.2
BSE - Oil -1.7 9.8 12.5 15.3 9.5 22.9
BSE - IT -0.7 12.0 11.1 19.5 10.3 9.4
Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research; * % return as on 2 Feb'13
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 5
Market Statistics
Source: NSE, BSE, Ace Equity, R K Global Research
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 28-Jan-13
# Crore
Volumes this Week
BSE NSE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 28-Jan-13
# Crore
Delivery Volume this Week
BSE NSE
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 28-Jan-13
` Crores
Turnover this Week
F&O NSE BSE
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
1-Feb-13 31-Jan-13 30-Jan-13 29-Jan-13 28-Jan-13
No. of Trades this Week
BSE NSE
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 6
Fund Flow Analysis
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Index` Crs
3m DIIs Fund Flows
DII (LS) Sensex (RS)
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Index` Crs
3m FIIs Fund Flows
FII Equity (LS) FII Debt (LS) Sensex (RS)
Units 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD
Equity ` Crs 5803 15183 49807 91664 134515 144873
Debt ` Crs 1906 4017 6867 17562 28168 44139
Total ` Crs 7708 19200 56674 109226 162683 189012
Equity ` Crs -1204 -4747 -10119 -17155 -22773 -24631
Debt ` Crs 4869 41537 129088 225498 497095 506536
Total ` Crs 3665 36791 118969 208343 474322 481904
DII Total ` Crs -4851 -18630 -32893 -50961 -68083 -74819
% -1.62 1.02 6.36 13.65 13.40 24.27
`/$ 53.4760 54.1986 54.5351 54.4496 53.7262 53.5323
Particulars
Source: SEBI, AceEquity, R K Global Research; as on 2 Feb'13
MF
FII
Sensex
Exchange Rate15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
Index` Crs
3m Mututal Funds Flows
Equity (LHS) Debt (LHS) Sensex (RHS)
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 7
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
%
Daily Weighted Avg Call Rates
Source: RBI, R K Global Research
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
%
Policy Rates
Repo Reverse Repo
7.75
7.00
Source: RBI, R K Global Research
Indian Economic Indicators
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
280
282
284
286
288
290
292
294
296
298
US$ Billion
Weekly Forex Reserves
Weekly Forex Reserves (LS) W-o-W Change (RS)
Source: RBI, R K Global Research
7.6 8.2 9.2 8
6.76.1 5.3 5.5 5.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2011-12 2012-13
Quarterly GDP Growth (Base: 2004-05)
8.4
5.3
Source: RBI , CSO, R K Global Research
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 8
Indian Economic Indicators
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12
Million US$
Foreign Direct Investment
Source: Ministry of Commerce, R K Global Research
6.40
8.137.52
6.48
8.84
6.34
5.60
8.80
3.30
4.10
1.90
-5.10
5.90
1.80
6.80
4.10
-3.50
0.10
2.40
-1.80
0.10
2.70
0.40
8.20
-0.10
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12
%
IIP Y-o-Y Growth (%)
Source: MOSPI, R K Global Research
54
.2
57
.5
56
.6
54
.7
54
.9
54
.8
55
.7
54
.4
54
.3
55
53
.5
53
.2
56
.3
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12
Ind
ex
HSBC PMI Manufacturing Index
Source: HSBC, Markit, R K Global Research
7.8
4.9
0.7
6.9
2.2
3.1
3.9 3.8
1.1
2.3
5.0
6.5
1.8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
150.0
155.0
160.0
165.0
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12
%
Ind
ex
Core Industry Index vis-a-vis Y-o-Y Growth
Core Industry Index (LHS) Y-o-Y Growth (RHS)
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, R K Global Research
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 9
Commodities - Metals
Source: MCX, AceEquity, R K Global Research
136.8
183.6 185.6
177.9
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /mmbtu
MCX Natural Gas Spot Prices
4943 5030
5167
5195
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /bbl
MCX Crude Oil Spot Prices
108.2111.5 112.1
113.6
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /kg
MCX Zinc Spot Prices
1,075.7
947.6
929.6
980.0
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /kg
MCX Nickel Spot Prices
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 10
Commodities – Precious Metals & Energy
Source: MCX, AceEquity, R K Global Research
27195
3080730564
29975
23000
24000
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /10gm
MCX Gold Spot Prices
54,673
58,079 58,582
57,256
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /kgs
MCX Silver Spot Prices
425.7441.1
436.5
438.5
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /kg
MCX Copper Spot Prices
425.7 441.1
436.5
438.5
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13
` /kg
MCX Aluminium Spot Prices
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2 February 2013 11
Currencies
76.26
86.61
90.86
92.70
73
78
83
88
93
98
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
USD-JPY
Source: NW18 database, R K Global Research
49.27
54.68
53.67
53.19
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
USD-INR
Source: NW18 database, R K Global Research
79.02
79.89 79.81
79.22
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
US Dollar Index
Source: ForexPros, R K Global Research
1.321.32
1.35
1.36
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13
EUR-USD
Source: NW18 database, R K Global Research
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2 February 2013 12
Global Economic Calendar
Date Day IST Currency Event
1-Feb-12 Fri 6:30am CNY Manufacturing PMI
1-Feb-12 Fri Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
1-Feb-12 Fri 7:00pm USD Unemployment Rate
1-Feb-12 Fri 8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
5-Feb-12 Tue 8:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
7-Feb-12 Thu 6:15pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate
7-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm EUR ECB Press Conference
7-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
8-Feb-12 Fri 5:20am JPY Current Account
8-Feb-12 Fri 7:30am CNY CPI y/y
8-Feb-12 Fri 7:00pm USD Trade Balance
9-Feb-12 Sat Tentative CNY Trade Balance
13-Feb-12 Wed 7:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
13-Feb-12 Wed 7:00pm USD Retail Sales m/m
14-Feb-12 Thu Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
14-Feb-12 Thu Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate
14-Feb-12 Thu Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference
14-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
15-Feb-12 Fri 8:25pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
19-Feb-12 Tue 7:15am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
19-Feb-12 Tue 2:00pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
20-Feb-12 Wed 3:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
20-Feb-12 Wed 7:00pm USD Building Permits
20-Feb-12 Wed 7:00pm USD PPI m/m
21-Feb-12 Thu 12:30am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
21-Feb-12 Thu 2:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate
21-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm USD Core CPI m/m
21-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
21-Feb-12 Thu 8:30pm USD Existing Home Sales
21-Feb-12 Thu 8:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
26-Feb-12 Tue 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
26-Feb-12 Tue 8:30pm USD New Home Sales
27-Feb-12 Wed 7:00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
27-Feb-12 Wed 8:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
28-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm USD Prelim GDP q/q
28-Feb-12 Thu 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
1-Mar-13 Fri 6:30am CNY Manufacturing PMI
Date Day IST Currency Event
1-Mar-13 Fri Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
1-Mar-13 Fri 8:30pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
5-Mar-13 Tue 8:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
6-Mar-13 Wed 6:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
7-Mar-13 Thu Tentative JPY Monetary Policy Statement
7-Mar-13 Thu Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate
7-Mar-13 Thu 6:15pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate
7-Mar-13 Thu 7:00pm EUR ECB Press Conference
7-Mar-13 Thu Tentative USD Trade Balance
7-Mar-13 Thu Tentative USD Unemployment Claims
8-Mar-13 Fri 5:20am JPY Current Account
8-Mar-13 Fri 7:30am CNY CPI y/y
8-Mar-13 Fri 7:00pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change
8-Mar-13 Fri Tentative USD Unemployment Rate
9-Mar-13 Sat Tentative CNY Trade Balance
13-Mar-13 Wed 6:00pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m
13-Mar-13 Wed 6:00pm USD Retail Sales m/m
14-Mar-13 Thu 6:00pm USD PPI m/m
14-Mar-13 Thu 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
15-Mar-13 Fri 6:00pm USD Core CPI m/m
15-Mar-13 Fri 7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
19-Mar-13 Tue 6:00pm USD Building Permits
20-Mar-13 Wed 2:30pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
20-Mar-13 Wed 11:00pm USD FOMC Statement
21-Mar-13 Thu 12:30am USD FOMC Economic Projections
21-Mar-13 Thu 12:45am USD FOMC Press Conference
21-Mar-13 Thu 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
21-Mar-13 Thu 7:30pm USD Existing Home Sales
21-Mar-13 Thu 7:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
22-Mar-13 Fri 7:15am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
22-Mar-13 Fri 2:00pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
22-Mar-13 Fri 2:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate
26-Mar-13 Tue 6:00pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
26-Mar-13 Tue 7:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence
26-Mar-13 Tue 7:30pm USD New Home Sales
27-Mar-13 Wed 7:30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m
28-Mar-13 Thu 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims
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2 February 2013 13
R K Global Coverage Snapshot
Source: Ace Equity R K Global Research Estimate, LCP-Last Closing Price as on 10 Dec 12
Sl No. Company Mkt Cap EPS PAT Growth % PER (X) Price/BV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) ROE(%)
(Rs mn) FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E TP LCP Upside % Rating
1 ACC Ltd. 269274 59.0 74.4 9.3% 26.1% 23.3 18.5 3.5 3.3 13.2 9.7 16.2% 18.6% 1502.0 1434.3 4.7% Hold
2 Ambuja Cements Ltd. 323100 8.2 10.8 1.3% 31.7% 24.8 18.8 3.9 3.5 14.8 10.5 15.2% 15.5% 221.0 209.7 5.4% Hold
3 Ashok Leyland Ltd. 73834 2.2 2.0 -12.8% -11.7% 11.6 13.1 2.2 2.1 7.4 7.8 19.9% 16.4% 26.0 27.8 -6.3% Achieved
4 Asian Paints Ltd. 417289 101.0 120.0 25.0% 19.0% 32.4 32.8 12.5 10.8 20.6 31.2 37.0% 33.0% 4085.0 4350.4 -6.1% Achieved
5 Bajaj Auto Ltd 557480 104.0 104.0 -10.1% -0.1% 17.1 17.1 8.5 6.8 12.4 12.8 54.9% 44.2% 1879.0 1926.6 -2.5% Achieved
7 Coal India Ltd. 2312737 14.0 -2.0 14.0% -2.0% 16 14 5.7 4.8 17.0 14.0 35.0% 29.0% 378.0 366.2 3.2% Hold
8 Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. 198930 33.0 30.0 13.0% -10.0% 33.9 52.1 34.8 18.6 23.6 23.9 54.0% 36.0% 1563.0 1462.8 6.8% Hold
9 Dabur India Ltd. 224837 3.0 4.0 8.0% 42.0% 40 13.2 15.4 36.2 26.0 28.2 38.0% 39.0% 145.0 129.0 12.4% Hold
10 DLF Ltd. 357796 7.1 9.0 -26.8% 26.5% 33.2 26.3 1.6 1.5 16.0 16.8 4.5% 5.5% NR 210.7 NR Achieved
11 Exide Industries Ltd. 124908 6.5 8.3 -30.8% 29.4% 27.4 16.4 3.2 2.8 16.8 15.9 15.9% 18.2% 160.0 147.0 8.9% Hold
13 HCL Technologies Ltd. 449570 35.0 48.0 38.0% 22.0% 12.6 10.2 3.9 3.3 11.6 11.8 23.8% 28.9% 635.0 647.5 -1.9% Achieved
14 Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 363571 119.0 115.0 18.0% 14.0% 17.5 15.3 9.6 6.9 11.8 10.8 66.0% 58.0% 2000.0 1820.7 9.8% Hold
15 Hindalco Industries Ltd. 225154 11.7 11.0 5.0% -6.0% 10 10.6 0.7 0.7 9.0 9.0 7.0% 6.0% 125.0 117.6 6.3% Hold
17 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 1158911 12.0 13.0 8.0% 6.0% 32.9 44.2 25.5 18.0 24.3 27.2 12.3% 13.0% 575.0 536.1 7.3% Hold
18 Hindustan Zinc Ltd. 599150 13.0 14.6 13.0% 11.0% 10.8 9.7 2.2 1.9 9.0 8.0 21.0% 20.0% 143.0 141.8 0.8% Hold
20 Infosys Ltd. 1398830 148.0 173.0 17.0% 42.0% 21 13.8 6.0 3.7 13.0 15.0 28.0% 27.0% 2565.0 2436.0 5.3% Hold
21 ITC Ltd. 2329776 7.5 8.6 20.3% 13.8% 29.7 36 9.2 11.0 18.6 15.5 31.0% 31.0% 306.0 296.2 3.3% Hold
23 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 430274 50.7 58.0 -29.2% 26.5% 26.6 24 2.6 2.5 12.6 12.0 10.8% 10.9% 1560.0 1489.3 4.7% Hold
24 Nestle India Ltd. 452031 114.0 139.0 14.0% 22.0% 44.9 36.9 21.7 15.7 27.2 27.8 48.0% 42.0% 5129.0 4688.4 9.4% Hold
25 NMDC Ltd 653980 18.3 19.0 12.0% 3.0% 8.9 8.7 2.7 2.2 5.0 4.4 30.0% 25.0% 201.0 165.0 21.9% Buy
28 Sesa Goa Ltd. 158568 24.3 19.3 -50.0% -20.0% 9.4 9.3 1.3 0.9 4.0 6.0 14.0% 10.0% 188.0 182.5 3.0% Hold
29 Steel Authority Of India Ltd. 82 13.0 15.7 4.3% 20.3% 9.3 8.9 0.8 0.7 7.0 6.0 8.6% 9.5% 84.0 81.7 2.8% Hold
30 Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. 364566 4.2 4.5 17.0% -9.0% 25.1 23.5 1.4 1.4 11.3 13.2 7.0% 6.0% 140.0 108.5 29.1% Buy
31 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 2573452 59.0 71.0 54.0% 20.0% 20.8 20 9.2 7.9 16.0 16.3 44.0% 40.0% 1428.0 1314.9 8.6% Hold
32 Tata Global Beverages Ltd 104107 15.0 20.0 16.0% 27.0% 22.8 10 2.9 3.3 25.8 26.2 10.0% 12.0% 185.0 168.4 9.9% Hold
33 Tata Steel Ltd. 379405 16.5 15.3 -0.4% -0.1% 23.7 25.4 2.8 2.6 14.0 11.0 0.1% 0.1% 420.0 390.7 7.5% Hold
34 Titan Industries Ltd. 271840 6.0 8.0 26.0% 35.0% 33 39 14.0 14.3 20.0 22.0 37.0% 37.0% 315.0 306.2 2.9% Hold
35 Ultratech Cement Ltd. 547847 89.2 107.7 74.2% 21.3% 22.9 18.9 4.3 3.5 13.9 10.9 19.0% 18.5% 2136.0 1998.3 6.9% Hold
37 Wipro Ltd. 971373 32.0 39.0 33.0% 21.0% 3.2 2.6 12.9 10.5 12.9 13.1 25.0% 25.0% 413.0 394.6 4.7% Hold
40 MOIL Ltd. 41084 24.5 27.4 -30.0% 12.0% 10.5 9.4 1.8 1.5 5.3 3.3 17.0% 17.0% 293.0 244.6 19.8% Buy
W€€KL¥ CU`$O`
2 February 2013 14
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Flat No. B-12, 4th Floor, Park Tower 67B Ballygunge Circular Road
Kolkata – 700 019 Phone: +91 33 4017 4999
Email: [email protected]