Vulnerability to global warming of endemic Mexican reptiles under the category of endangered risk

Martha Anahí Güizado-Rodríguez, Claudia Ballesteros-Barrera, Alma Delia Toledo-Guzmán and Gilberto Cárdenas-Hernández.

Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa. Av. San Rafael Atlixco N° 186, Col. Vicentina, Del. Iztapalapa, C.P. 09340, México, D.F. CONTACTO: anahigurz@gmail.com

C O N C L U S I O N We provide here the first comprehensive study on the potential effect of global warming on the geographic distribution of endemic Mexican reptiles under the category of endangered risk in the NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010. Abronia ochoterenai, Crotalus transversus, Uma paraphygas and Gopherus flavomarginatus could lost a great area of their actual potential distribution: 99.93%, 783%, 83.52% and 39.76%, respectively. So there are highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations such as global warming. While other species could gain a vast area where the optimal conditions of their ecological niche could be found: Uma exsul 364%, Xantusia bolsonae 340%, Xantusia sanchezi 163%. However, most species analyzed here could suffer negative impacts on their distribution, that could put at high risk their survival.

Mexico is a megadiverse country, in terms of reptilian diversity as it is home to 864 (8.7%) of the described worldwide species and also it has a high degree of endemism (57%). However, more than 50% of these reptilian species are at some level of risk by Mexican Official Norm (NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010). Among the factors of threat to Mexican reptiles is habitat loss and degradation and global warming, although the biological and ecological consequences on Mexican species is usually unavailable (Sinervo et al., 2010).

• Abronia bogerti

• Abronia chiszari

• Abronia ochoterenai

• Abronia reidi

• Crotalus transversus

• Xantusia bolsonae

• Xantusia sanchezi

• Ctenosaura defensor

• Gopherus flavomarginatus

ACTUAL 2050 2070 ACTUAL 2050 2070

DATA BASE CLIMATIC DATA

Ecological Niche Model MaxEnt t v.3.3.1

• GBIF (www.gbif.org) • REMIB (www.conabio.gob.mx) • CNAR (COLECCIÓN NACIONAL DE ANFIBIOS Y

REPTILES, IB, UNAM)

SPECIES RECORDS OF 13 ENDEMIC REPTILES THAT CONSIST OF INDIVIDUAL POINT-LOCALITY INFORMATION (PRESENCE-ONLY DATA)

PRESENT WorldClim

(www.worldclim.org)

19 CLIMATIC VARIABLES AT A SPATIAL RESOLUTION 0.01° × 0.01° (~1 km2)

BINARY (PRESENCE-ABSCENCE); USING A THRESHOLD OF 10% (T10) VALIDATED WITH A P-value OF A JACKKNIFE TEST (PEARSON

et al., 2007)

POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION MODELS

FUTURE WorldClim v. 1.4

IPPC5 (CMIP5), GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS FOR THE YEARS 2050 AND 2070 FROM THE CGCM3 MODEL UNDER THE RCP8.5 EMISSION SCENARIO.

M REGION (SOBERÓN AND PETERSON, 2005) BIOGEOGRAPHIC REGIONS

(www.conabio.gob.mx)

• Barisia rudicollis

• Uma exsul

• Uma paraphygas

• Aspidoscelis rodecki

ACTUAL 2050 2070

SPECIE ACTUAL

POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

SCENARIO YEAR PERMANENCE COLONIZATION EXTINCTION

Abronia bogerti 568,174 RCP8.5 2050 427,093 21,738 141,081

2070 381,820 13,334 186,354

Abronia chiszari 67,323 RCP8.5 2050 65,861 47,658 1,462

2070 67,017 123,979 306

Abronia ochoterenai 11,395 RCP8.5 2050 5,104 - 6,291

2070 9 - 11,386

Abronia reidi 204,425 RCP8.5 2050 197,307 72,880 7,118

2070 203,834 184,117 591

Crotalus transversus 18,572 RCP8.5 2050 4,838 22 13,734

2070 3,231 2 15,341

Barisia rudicollis 369,209 RCP8.5 2050 368,839 126,519 370

2070 362,337 96,987 6,872

Uma exsul 87,009 RCP8.5 2050 86,995 207,971 14

2070 87,008 317,438 1

Uma paraphygas 207,172 RCP8.5 2050 37,496 2,190 169,676

2070 34,159 2,991 173,013

Aspidoscelis rodecki 26,608 RCP8.5 2050 24,870 14,732 1,738

2070 13,991 6,401 12,617

Xantusia bolsonae 149,544 RCP8.5 2050 131,689 410,427 17,855

2070 133,156 508,503 16,388

Xantusia sanchezi 237,659 RCP8.5 2050 227,065 334,100 10,594

2070 219,645 388,340 18,014

Ctenosaura defensor 120,371 RCP8.5 2050 120,278 34,607 93

2070 101,606 16,485 18,765

Gopherus flavomarginatus 211,579 RCP8.5 2050 147,530 15,713 64,049

2070 127,462 21,545 84,117

The aim of this study was to define the vulnerability to global warming of endemic reptiles under the category of endangered risk included in the NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010.

I N T R O D U C T I O N O B J E C T I V E

M A T E R I A L A N D M E T H O D S

R E S U L T S Table 1. Current and future potential distribution of 13 species of endemic Mexican reptiles under the Endangered Category in the NOM-059-SEMARNAT-2010. Ecological Niche Model were generated using MaxEnt for the liberal climate change scenario proposed by the Canadian Climate Centre CGCM3 (RCP8.5). Areas remaining, areas won and areas lost are shown. Values are in km2.