Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge

Phil O’Keefe

The Geographical Association, Newcastle, 2008

• The political economy of humanitarianism

• Climate Change

• Key Questions

• Exogenous and endogenous pressures

• Location of study area

• Methodology

• Key Hypothesis

• Important preliminary results

• Agricultural extensification, intensification and off-farm income

• How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change?

OVERVIEW

The Political Economy of Humanitarianism

•1990-2005 from 500 million to 8 billion

•20 million refugees, 40 million IDPs

•From natural disasters to complex emergencies

•Reorganisation of the UN system

•Growth of international NGOs

•A need for pre-disaster planning

Climate Change Challenges

•IPPC 4 - Variability

•Stern - Project to Programme

•Post Kyoto

•Carbon footprint negotiations within and between countries

CLIMATE CHANGE

•Synoptic Change; large scale system change-Global movement of ITCZ; high pressure system that dominates African weather-Regional impact of El Nino(e.g.1997); movement of the southern ocean oscillation-Deglaciation of Kilimanjaro but competing explanations; no ice in 25 years

Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

Source: URT 2003

Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

KEY QUESTION:

•What is vulnerability? What is a bad year? What is more important; climate change or climate

variability?

• What are the pressures? Climate Change Changing commodity prices Government policy

• What are the coping mechanism? Can agricultural intensification decrease vulnerability? Can agricultural extensification decrease vulnerability? What is the role of off-farm income?

HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT AGRICULTURAL SMALL HOLDERS ON KILIMANJARO?

WHAT IS VULNERABILITY?

The extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change, and is a function of the magnitude of climate change, the sensitivity of the system to changes in climate and the ability to adapt the system to changes in climate

Exogenous Pressures•Climate change/

Climate variability•Declining commodity

prices•Government policy

•Population increase•Deforestation•Fire risk•Subsistence food

insecurity•Change of subsistence

food crop

Endogenous Pressures

WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT; CLIMATE CHANGE OR VARIABILITY?

• Climate variability used as proxy for climate change• Therefore reducing vulnerability to climate variability is

decreasing risk to climate change

LOCATION OF STUDY

•Tanzania•Mt Kilimanjaro•Kilimanjaro region•Moshi rural and Rombo district

ROMBO PROFILE

Location: 37°34E to 37°38E at 3’11S

METHODOLOGY•2 profiles from south to east on Kilimanjaro•Built on Rufiji study•Questionnaire modification•Pilot survey•Enumerator Training•Enumerator monitoring•Data entry checking system•1,016 Household surveys completed over 3 weeks• (Map or diagram)

KEY HYPOTHESES

•Mark: How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change?

•Paul: How are capitals accumulated on Mt. Kilimanjaro

•Zahra: What are the gender aspects of food security on Mt. Kilimanjaro?

•Matt: What are the government responses to famine?

OTHER DATA SOURCES

•Secondary survey•Key informant interviews•Physical asset checklist•Structured observation•Transect walks•Theoretical context setting secondary data •Location specific secondary data

ACCESS TO WATER SOURCES AS VULNERABILITY INDICATOR

LEVEL OF EDUCATION RELATED TO INFORMATIONSource of information

Level Of Education (Percentages)

No Schooling

Adult Education

Primary Education

Secondary Education

College university Total

Agricultural Extension Officer 23 20 32 44 50 32.6Other Farmers 28 40 32 20 9 30.1Seed Suppliers 4 10 18 4.8Media 4 3 4 5 5 3.8Nowhere 45 37 28 21 18 28.8Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

Women’s coping mechanism

Age (percentages)

18-37 38-57 57+ TotalPetty Buisness 70 64 47 59Remittances 13 15 30 20Others 17 21 23 21Total 100 100 100 100

Differentiation of women’s coping mechanism by age

DIVISION OF LABOUR IN COFFEE PRODUCTION

Coffee Harvester(s) Sex (percent)Coffee Marketer (s) Sex (percent)

Male Female Total Male Female Total

Male Parent 9 3 7 43 17 34

Female Parent 19 44 29 20 61 34

Male & Female Parent 42 23 35 31 13 25

Children 2 3 3 2 2 2

Parents & Children 25 22 24 4 5 4

Others 1 5 3 2 1

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

How many cattle owned?How many cattle loaned from others?

How many chickens owned?

Number Frequency Percent Number Frequency Percent Number

Frequency Percent

0 510 50.2 0 881 86.8 0 261 25.7

1 233 23.0 1 84 8.3 1-4 286 28.2

2 174 17.1 2 34 3.3 5-9 237 23.3

3 57 5.6 3 5 0.5 10-19 156 15.4

4 28 2.8 4 5 0.5 20-29 46 4.5

5+ 13 1.3 5+ 6 0.6 30-39 12 1.2

Total 1015 100.0 Total 1015 100.0 40-49 9 0.9

50+ 8 0.8

Total 1015 100.0

Total Income 2005 Total Income 2006

Money USD Percent Money USD Percent

Median 133800 112 Median 178000 148

Mean 305523 255 Mean 370544 309

Per day 837 0.7 Per day 1015 0.8

Total 310411786 258676 100 Total37647320

4 313728 100

Off-farm income 146569750 122141 47.2Off-farm income

161678525 134732 42.9

Remittances 45641650 38035 14.7 Remittances 53403000 44503 14.2

Bananas 40377900 33648 13 Bananas 50207600 41840 13.3

Milk 15106250 12589 4.9 Milk 28109200 23424 7.5

Livestock 22457500 18715 7.2 Livestock 24768600 20641 6.6

Coffee 16822300 14019 5.4 Coffee 22500800 18751 6

Maize 12268536 10224 4 Maize 20040510 16700 5.3

Fruits 3634350 3029 1.2 Fruits 4692699 3911 1.2

Wood 2567500 2140 0.8 Beans 3661950 3052 1

Other farm 1670900 1392 0.5 Wood 3476000 2897 0.9

Beans 1550000 1292 0.5 Millet 1280600 1067 0.4

Millet 1017400 848 0.3 Sunflower 1391250 1159 0.4

Sunflower 727750 606 0.3 Other farm 1262470 1052 0.3

What are the Impacts of climate change? Frequency PercentShorter Rain Seasons & Insufficient Rainfall 403 40

Insufficient Rainfall 237 23

Shorter Rain Seasons 164 16Shorter Rain Seasons & Flood/Drought INcreases 95 9

Flood/Drought Increases 53 5Insufficient Rainfall & Flood/Drought Increases 34 3

Others 8 3

Are you aware of climate change?

Yes 953 94No

39 4Missing

24 2

CAN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY?

• Forest limits – national park•Bush Savannah no longer exists• Large scale farming constraints•Maize-bean shambas on lowlands due to availability

of water• Finger Millet – Cow peas extreme drought adaptation,

illustrates the limits of cultivation without irrigation• Population increase and landuse planning/ownership

limit extensification opportunities

CAN AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY?

• Intensifying by cash cropping or diversifying subsistence food production

• Is coffee rehabilitation possible?

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF OFF-FARM INCOME?

•Options of movement-Local-Regional-National

• Importance of transport• Importance of education

What is the meaning of this case study?

•Adaptation is evolution

•Coping mechanisms suggest involution

•The need for post Kyoto to be adaptation focused

•The need for pre-disaster planning