VTS and Decision Making

8/3/2019 VTS and Decision Making

1/19


2/19

Dynamic Non-Event

y Reliability of VTS is a dynamic non-event

y It is dynamic because process remain within acceptable limits due to

moment-to-moment adjustments and compensations by the humanoperators

y It is a non-event because safe outcomes claim little or no attention

y The paradox is rooted in the fact that accidents are salient whilenormalcy is not

y Collective mindfulness is necessary to be alert the possibility ofunpleasant surprises and to detect, understand and recover thembefore they bring about bad consequences

- Karl Weick


3/19

VTS Monitoring

y (identity) q(position)

y q (Change Detection)-

- : - :

y (intention)

y

y

y :

y


4/19

VTS Monitoring & Prediction

y , :

y

:

y ,.

y

VTS :


5/19

VTS Monitoring & Stress

y VTSO

y VTSO

y ( Gerald

Edelman)

y

VTS :


6/19

VTS Communication

y

- . Noise

- Data

y Verbalizing to other team members task-related thoughts andbehavioral intentions to establish predictable behavior patterns

y ATC(being-directed)

y VTS(area-broadcasting)


7/19

VTS Alert

y q

- q

-

y VTS

y

y

()

y VTS


8/19

VTS Animation

y

y

y

y

y

r,

y


9/19

Emotion and DM

y

- , - Antonio R. Dammasio

y - Lee & Sternthal

y

y q

, - Lerner & Keltner

y ,

-


10/19

VTS

y

y

y y

y

y

y

y .y

y


11/19

Sources of Uncertainty

y Missing important information

- ,

- y Not able to trust the information

- ,

y Inconsistent with other information

-

y

Noise ; a lot of irrelevant information- ,

Cannotinterpretinformation


12/19

Tactics for Managing Uncertainty

y Delaying to demand more information

y Increasing attention (more active in monitoring the situation)

y Filling the gaps with assumptions

y

Building an interpretation (making sense of a situation)y Pressing on

y Shaking the tree (to actively shape environment)

y Designing decision scenarios (rich mental model)

y Simplifying the plan

y

Using Incremental decisionsy Embracing the uncertainty

- Gary Klein


13/19


14/19

Four principal types of DM

y Intuitive ( recognition-primed)

y Rule-based

y Analytical (choice through comparison of options)

y Creative

NDM . . DM ( )


15/19

Satisficing DM

y Maximizing(Optimizing):

y Satisficing(Singular Evaluation Approach):

y

,

y :

. - Herbert Simon


16/19

Iterative DM

y

y

- ::

y (feedback) y

y

y

-

y

qy

- ,


17/19

Factors influencing DM

y Competence in DM is significantly influenced by:- Technical expertise- Level of experience- Familiarity with the situation- Practice in responding to problem situations

y Stress has most impact on choice and creative methods, as theserequires heavy use of cognitive resources, such as the workingmemory space - Harrison & Horne

y In contrast, recognition-primed DM, which are relatively light on

cognitive processing, seem to be less affected by stress -Stokes

y Fatigue can impair f lexibility, increase perseveration errors,decrease ability to appreciate an updated situation


18/19

DecisionTraps

y Jumping to solutions

y Not communicating

y Being unwilling to challenge the experts

y Complacency

y Assuming you dont have the time

y Failure to consult

y Failure to review

- A. Walters


19/19

DMTraining

y What is required is an understanding of natural reasoningprocesses and how to reinforce and extend natural thinking skill(meta-cognition)

y Training for decision-makers should focus developing cue andpattern recognition skills for improved situation assessment andpracticing in deciding what action to take

y Useful training method:

- guided DM practice in simulators and low-fidelity settings

- feedback on performance

- structured practice in stressful situations

Documents

VTS and Decision Making