VTrans2040 VTrans Multimodal Transportation Plan (VMTP)Blueprint for Livable Communities - Citizen Advisory Group Henrico, VAJuly 17, 2015Kelli Nash (OIPI)

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What is VTrans2040?

• Vision• Guiding Principles• Goals• Objectives

VTrans Vision Document

• 2025 Needs Assessment• 2040 Scenario Analysis

VTrans Multimodal

Transportation Plan

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INTR

OD

UCT

ION

KEY QUESTIONS

“Demographic and market studies consistently show that workers in the 21st century economy prefer walkable communities that are served by rail and public transit, as well as roads. If we want to cultivate this work force, which we need to do, we need to get ahead of these trends.”

 Governor McAuliffe

June 18, 2014

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INTR

OD

UCT

ION

• Part of the first phase of developing VTrans2040

• Understanding the future trends that may shape current policies

TRENDS(what the world may look like in 2040)

OUTCOMES(what transportation may look like in 2040)

TRENDS ANALYSIS:

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Growth by 2040:Virginia 28.6%USA 21.7%

Highest Millennial growth:• Urbanized Regions• Not Just Urban Centers

Seniors (65+):in 2012: 13%in 2040: 18%

Virginia is Growing

Virginia is Aging

Millennial Concentrations

71% of Growth by 2040 is concentrated in

10 cities/counties

Growth Concentrations

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• Professional• Medical • Government • Admin. & Support

• Prof. Services & Finance in urban areas

• Health Care & Manufacturing more dispersed Statewide

• Real Estate• Manufacturing• Professional &

Scientific• Public Administration

Top Industry Sectors ( 56% of payroll Statewide by 2040)

Top Sectors for GDP

Concentrations By Region

Will hold steady to 2040with declines in agriculture offset by growth in health care

Rural Employment(Statewide by 2040)

• Port of VA growth since 2009 will continue

• Inbound coal freight will continue declines

• Rail up 88%• Truck up 31%• Air up 100%• Pipeline down 17%• Intermodal up 107%

Future Freight Trends

Freight Modal Shifts(Statewide by 2040)

Tourism Impacts(Statewide in 2012)

• $21.2 B in spending• Supported 210,00 jobs• Contributed to $4.7 B

in payroll

Future Commodities Trends• By value,

Pharmaceuticals, Electronics & Machinery are fastest –growing

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• Ride sharing• Car sharing• Bike sharing• Ride matching

• Wireless vehicle communication

• Wireless elec. Charging• Driverless cars/buses

• Test bed on I-66 , I-495

• Smart Road by VTTI & VDOT

• Anti icing

Shared Use Mobility

Smart Technology - Infrastructure

Smart Technology - Vehicles

Rural Employment(Statewide by 2040)

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• Coastal VA is 2nd most vulnerable region in US

• 308 ac. Port property• 129 ac. Airport runways• 253,990 ac. total

• Sea level rise greater than average

• Low elevations, land subsidence

• Ecosystem degradation

Climate Change

Sea Level Rise Impacts

At Risk Transportation Infrastructure(Statewide)

Heat Waves Impacts • Road/bridge expansion• Rail track deformation• Airport lift off

limitations

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Draft Final Vision Plan

VTrans2040 Vision

Virginia’s multimodal transportation system will be Good for Business, Good for Communities, and Good to Go. Virginians will benefit from a transportation system that advances Virginia businesses and attracts a 21st century workforce by improving goods movement and supporting strategic placemaking.

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VTrans and VMTP Steps

Trends Research

Vision/Goals/Objective

Complete Vision Plan

Performance Measures

Needs Assessment

Scenario Analysis

Recommendations

Complete VMTP

VTrans2040 Vision Plan VTrans2040 Multimodal Plan

We areHere HB2

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VMTP Framework

Three types of needs:

CAPACITY &

OPERATIONS NEEDS

CoSS

Regional

Networks

UDAs

State of Good Repair

Safety

Capacity/Operations

HB2

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VMTP Needs Assessment - Three Travel Markets

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CoSS - Analysis Segments

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CoSS 2025 Needs AssessmentCategories of Needs and Focus of Assessment

• Safety• Reliability• Congestion• Multimodal Choice & Redundancy

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VMTP Needs Assessment - Three Travel Markets

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DESIRED FUTURE

ECONOMIC CONDITION

“GAP” = Transportation “NEED”

CURRENT ECONOMIC CONDITION

CURRENT TRANSPORTATION

CONDITION

TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM NEEDED

TO SUPPORT FUTURE

ECONOMIC CONDITION

VMTP Planning Process – Regional Networks

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Regional Profiles

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Needs Address the Area, Corridor andRegional Improvements Needed to Serve the 2025 Economy

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Example Regional Network Needs

Needs Derived From Economic and Transportation Profile – Central Virginia Region

Improved trail and bike connections between and around Lynchburg-area colleges and University to strengthen Education sector

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VMTP Needs Assessment - Three Travel Markets

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Urban Development Areas - Background

VMTP Needs Assessment• Context sensitive multimodal transportation solutions • Last-mile access to jobs and non-work attractions • Safe bicycle and pedestrian circulation • Improve connections to local multimodal networks and regional

transportation options• Local planning assistance

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Urban Development Areas

1. Location Research

2. Data Assessment

3. Local Needs

Assessment

4. Confirm & Organize

Needs

5. Share with Stakeholders

Ongoing April May June/July

Regional ForumsPublic Outreach

CTB Meetings

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Updated UDA Locations

Designated UDAs per Section 15.2-2223.1Current Status* - 108 Total UDAs

*Note: OIPI is working with localities to identify other locally designated growth areas (not mapped here) that meet the intent of 15.2-2223.1 (but are not called UDAs). Localities are formally referencing the Code of Virginia for these places to ensure eligibility for HB2.

2525

UDA NEEDS Update on VTrans Multimodal TransportationPlan 2025 Needs Assessment

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Process Update

MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

Regional Network Analysis

CoSS Analysis

UDA Analysis

Statewide Public Meetings

In-Person Work Session with MPOs Statewide Regional Forums w/ All Planners and Providers of Transportation Services

UDA Specific Outreach - Webinar and Needs Survey in April for Localities with UDAs

Virginia Multimodal Transportation Plan 2015- Work Flow and Key Input Opportunities -

FINAL CAPACITY NEEDS

CAPACITY/OPERATIONS NEEDS

SoGR NEEDS

SAFETY NEEDS

DRAFT CAPACITY NEEDS

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Thank You