Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF
PARTISAN AND FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL
ELECTIONS 2013 IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
By
HASSAN SHAH
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR
SESSION: 2014 – 2015
VOTING BEHAVIOUR IN PAKISTAN: AN ANALYSIS OF
PARTISAN AND FLOATING VOTERS IN GENERAL
ELECTIONS 2013 IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
Thesis submitted to the Department of Political Science, University of
Peshawar, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Award of the Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
IN
POLITICAL SCIENCE
JANUARY 2019
i
ABSTRACT
This academic work is focused on the dynamics of voting behaviour with a particular focus
on partisan and floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The voting
behaviour of the voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is constantly changing in each and every
election. Questions arise that, why voting behaviour and preferences are frequently
changing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? What are the main determinants of voting behaviour in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? There is a considerable ratio of floating voters in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa that change their loyalties in each election. The scarce literature on voting
behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa did not explain the frequent changes in voting behaviour
in general and partisan and floating voters in particular. This study explores the concept of
floating voter in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and operationalized it on the basis of previous
research work. A scientific method was used to compare the results of three general
elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in the selected constituencies for identification of partisans
and floating voters. Party identification theory was operationalized for the partisan voters
which justified the argument that party identification is one of the main determinants of
voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study also figures out other determinants of
voting behaviour in the 2013 such as the influence of the candidate personality, local and
national issues, religion and social networks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The „Issue Ownership
Theory‟ and „Riding the Wave Theory‟ were operationalized to find out the issue voters in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The socio-political and economic circumstances in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa encouraged the influence of personalities in the electoral politics. While this
research work recognizes personality vote hypothesis and tested it through Five-Factor
model (FFM) of personality, the role of religion in making the political behaviour of the
voters was also much visible. The study identified that religion-based voting is an important
determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The strong social structure in the
ii
Pakhtun society and social networks like family, relatives and friends have significant
influence on the political affiliation and vote choices of the individuals.
The scope of this research work is limited only to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which was
divided into Northern, Central and Southern geographical regions or zones. From each zone
two national assembly constituencies were randomly selected and data was collected
through a close ended questionnaire on the basis of probability sample. The study is
primarily quantitative. For analysis inferential statistical tests that include Chi-Square test,
Paired T-test and cross tabulation were used to check the relationship between two variables
and test deviation of differences.
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
S.No. Topic Page No.
Abstract I
List of Acronyms vi
Acknowledgements ix
Chapter – 1 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose of Inquiry 1
1.2 Rationale for Selecting 2013 General Elections 3
1.3 Literature Review 4
1.4 Statement of the Problem 7
1.5 Aims and Objectives of the Study 7
1.6 Significance of the Study 8
1.7 Methodology 9
1.8 Data Collection 11
1.9 Impact and contribution of the study 13
1.10 Chapters structure 14
Chapter – 2
ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (1932-
2013)
2.1 Introduction 16
2.2 Pre-Independence Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (former
NWFP)
17
2.3 Post-independence Elections Era (1947-1970) 27
2.4 Third Phase of the Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1970-2013) 30
Chapter – 3
COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THREE GENERAL
ELECTIONS (2002, 2008, 2013)
56
3.1 Introduction 56
3.2 Southern Geographical Zone 58
3.3 Central Geographical Zone 65
3.4 Northern Geographical Zone 72
3.5 Fluctuations in Turnout 78
3.6 Vote Bank of Political Parties 79
iv
Chapter – 4
IDENTIFICATION OF FLOATING VOTERS IN ELECTIONS 2013 85
4.1 Introduction 85
4.2 Political Parties Support in General Elections 90
4.3 Characteristics of Floating Voters 92
Chapter – 5
PARTISANSHIP MODEL IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 118
5.1 Introduction 118
5.2 Political Parties Membership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 120
5.3 Respondents Perception about Party Affiliation/Attachment 125
5.4 Party Leader versus Political Party 130
5.5 Respondents‟ Political Parties Affiliation 135
5.6 Switching new Political Party according to the Circumstances (Political
and Social)
142
5.7 Respondents Prediction about the Political Party Candidate in 2018
Elections
147
Chapter – 6
ROLE OF PERSONALITY OF CANDIDATE IN GENERAL
ELECTIONS 2013
156
6.1 Introduction 156
6.2 Influence of Candidate Personality on Voter 157
6.3 Economic and Political Status of the Candidate 166
6.4 Candidate Participation in the Social Activities 172
6.5 Party Candidate versus Independent Candidate 178
6.6 The impact of Transport on Voters 184
Chapter – 7
ISSUE VOTING MODEL 191
7.1 Introduction 191
7.2 Issue and Vote Choice in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 194
7.3 Respondents and Issues Identification 195
7.4 Voting on the Basis of Local (Constituency) Issues 201
7.5 Issue Ownership and Political Parties 207
v
Chapter – 8
RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR 216
8.1 Introduction 216
8.2 Respondents Perception about Religious Political Parties 227
8.3 Respondents Perceptions to Vote for Religious Political Parties 234
8.4 The Relationship of Religion and Voting Behaviour 239
Chapter – 9
ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS IN SHAPING VOTING
BEHAVIOUR
242
9.1 Introduction 242
9.2 Influence of Mashar (Elder) of the Family on Vote Choice 250
9.3 Influence of Social Networks on Vote Choice 257
9.4 Rationale of Candidate Support in General Elections 2013 264
Conclusion 271
Bibliography 276
Appendix 294
vi
LIST OF ACRONYMS
AICC All India Congress Committee
AIML All India Muslim League
AL Awami League
ANP Awami National Party
ARD Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy
CJP Chief Justice of Pakistan
CM Chief Minister
COAS Chief of Army Staff
COP Combined Opposition parties
ECP Election Commission of Pakistan
F.R Frontier Region
FAFEN Free and Fair Election Network
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
FPCC Frontier Province Congress Committee
IJI Islami Jamhoori Ittehad
IJM Islami Jamhoori Mahaz
IJM Islami Jamhori Mohaz
INC Indian National Congress
ISI Inter Service Intelligence Agency
JI Jmaat-i-Islami
JMP Jamiat Mashaikh Pakistan
JUH Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind
JUI Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam
JUI (F) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman Group)
JUP Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan
vii
JUP (Hazarvi) Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan (Hazarvi Group)
KK Khudai Khidmatgar
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
KT Khaksar Tehrik
LFO Legal Framework order
LHC Lahore High Court
MDM Mutehda Deeni Mahaz
MKP Mazdoor Kissan Party
MMA Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal
MNA Member of National Assembly
MPA Member of Provincial Assembly
MQM Muttahida Qawmi Movement
NA National Alliance
NAP National Awami Party
NWFP North West Frontier Province
PAI Pakistan Awami Ittehad
PATA Provincial Administered Tribal Area
PDA Pakistan Democratic Alliance
PDA Peoples Democratic Alliance
PDP Pakistan Democratic Party
PHC Peshawar High Court
PIF Pakistan Islamic Front
PILDAT Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development &Transparency
PKMAP Pushtunkhwa Milli Awami Party
PKQP Pakhtunkhwa Qaumi Party
PM Prime Minister
viii
PMKP Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party
PML (C) Pakistan Muslim League (Convention)
PML (C) Pakistan Muslim League (Council)
PML (N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
PML(J) Pakistan Muslim League (Junejo faction)
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam)
PPP Pakistan People Party
PPPP Pakistan People Party Parliamentarian
PPP-S Pakistan People Party Sherpao Group
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
QWP Qaumi Watan Party
SC Supreme Court of Pakistan
SSP Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan
TI Tehriq Istiqlal
TNFJ Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqa Jafiriah
TNSM Tehriq-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Muhammadi
ix
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I am very thankful to Almighty Allah to give me courage and potential to complete this
dissertation. This study would not have been possible without the help and encouragement
of several people and institutions. First and foremost, the gratitude goes to those institutions
that substantially contributed to this study. Primarily, credit goes to Higher Education
Commission Pakistan (HEC) to reimburse my tuition fee under the Prime Minister Fee
Reimbursement Program. I also worked as a research assistant in NRPU project that
fulfilled my other financial expenses. I am fortunate to avail the HEC International
Research Support Initiative Program (IRSIP) scholarship and spent six months at George
August University, Goettingn, Germany. I am also thankful to the IRSIP team in Higher
Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad.
I would like to express heartiest gratitude to my supervisor and mentor Dr. Abdul
Rauf, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, who very kindly
guided me throughout the conduction of this research. I benefited enormously from his
experience and priceless thoughts. He remained more than a supervisor for me during the
entire period and left no stone unturned in providing me necessary materials (academic and
financial) for this purpose. I am also obliged to Dr. Shahida Aman, my co-supervisor. She
always guided me during this whole process and encouraged me to move forward. She is a
kind and soft hearted teacher.
I am grateful to my host supervisor Dr. John Peter Hartung, who remained a source
of guidance for me during my stay in Gottingen. His intellectual insights and critical
approach strengthened my theoretical base. Dr. John Peter Hartung not only guided me
academically but treated me like a friend throughout my stay. I am also thankful to Ms.
Christine Seack and the team of the international office in George August University,
Gottingen who guided me about the admission formalities of the university. I am also
x
grateful to the cooperation and assistance of teaching and non-teaching staff of the Institute
of Social Anthropology.
I am thankful to, acting Chairman and Dean of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Johar Ali,
Department of Political Science, University of Peshawar, for his cooperation and
encouragement and Prof. Dr. Taj Muharram Khan, former Chairman of the department. It
would be injustice if I did not acknowledge Prof. Dr. A. Z. Hilali, Prof. Dr. Zahid Anwar,
Dr. Muhammad Ayub Jan, Dr. Sami Raza (Fulbright fellow), Dr. Noreen Naseer, Dr.
Muhammad Zubair and Dr. Aamer Raza (Fulbright fellow) of the Department of Political
Science, for their due intellectual and moral support. My gratitude also goes to Dr. Andrea
Fleshinberg (DAAD long term guest professor at QAU Islamabad), Dr. Sanaa Alimia and
Dr. James Caron (SOAS London). I am particularly obliged to clerical staff Murad Khan
(MAMA), Saeedullah (Charsadda), Shamsul Amin, Atif Matlob and Shazada Gulfam,
Librarian of the Seminar Library for the wholehearted support that I always received from
them. I also acknowledge my gratitude and indebtedness to my family members who
encouraged me to fulfill this task. I am indebted to my parents Mr. Nadir Khan and Mrs.
Nadir Khan whose love and patience highly encouraged me in this whole process. My
sincere thanks and gratitude to my friends especially Dr. Wajid Mehmood Khatak (Karak),
Dr. Sajjad Husain (Bajaur), Dr. Syed Wasif Azeem (Charsadda), Wali Ullah (Lakki
Marwat), Muhammad Rehman (Lakki Marwat), Arif Khan (Mardan), Muhammad Farooq
(M.Phil Statistics), Sajjad Ali (Charsadda), Abdul Wakeel and Irfanullah (Police
Department). The appreciation and encouragement of all these people pushed me to
complete this research study.
I am also thankful to Prof. Dr. Syed Muhammad Asim, Chairman Department of
Statistics, University of Peshawar, who gave his valuable time and helped me in data
analysis. I always remember his insight in quantitative methods and its use in social
sciences. I would like to acknowledge the advice and encouragement received from Mr.
xi
Usman Ali Shah M.A. (English) Federal Directorate of Education Islamabad, Mr.
Muhammad Zahir Shah (PhD Scholar in China), Dr. Muhammad Ashgar Khan, Department
of Regional Studies, Dr. Muhammad Tariq Azad (PhD Scholar), Mr. Jamshid Iqbal (PhD
Scholar), Mr. M. Bilal Lecturer Sociology (AWKUM) and Sikandar Hayat Khan (PhD
Scholar). My University colleagues Dr. Ashfaq Ahmad, Dr. Asif Salim, Shah Nawaz, Faraz
Ali Khan, Saeedullah Din Muhammad (George-August-University), Taswar Husain Zaidi
(George-August-University), Dr. Tahir Mehmood (George-August-University) and many
more were very much instrumental in different stages of the study.
Field work and data collection was the toughest task of this research project. My
sincere thanks and gratitude goes to Mr. Faizul Ibrar Khatak (Karak), Hidayat Khan Marwat
(Lakki Marwat), Haseen Ullah (Lakki Marwat), Muhammad Iqbal (Mardan), Gohar Zaman
(Gandera), Adnan Shah (Tahkt-i-Bahi), Akhtar Wahid (Mandani), Alhaj Muhammad Khan
(Chitral), Junaid Shah, Hifsa Gul, Shaheen Begum and Bushra Gul. All these people helped
me in data collection in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. I am also very thankful
to the staff of Election Commission of Pakistan, Peshawar and people of different districts
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who extended their help and cooperation in the conduction of
survey in the areas of their dwelling.
Hassan Shah
1
CHAPTER – 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 PURPOSE OF INQUIRY
This study is an academic attempt to analyze the voting behavior of the people in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa with a particular focus on partisan and floating voters. Voting behaviour has
always been remained very fluid due to the unique political landscape of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore, different political parties came into power with majority votes in
the last three (2002, 2008, 2013) general elections. In general elections 2002, Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) came into power with (42%) majority votes. In general elections
2008, MMA was voted out and two other (secular) political parties Pakistan People‟s Party
(PPP) 17% votes and Awami National Party (ANP) 16% votes respectively secured
majority vote (Khan, 2009:490). In the general elections 2013, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
(PTI) (a centralist party) with (27%) votes sweep the provincial and national assembly
constituencies, secured the majority seats and washed out the previous ruling political
parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Besides political parties, independent candidates also
secured a good number of votes in these general elections. Independent candidates secured
17% votes in general elections 2002, 24% votes in 2008 and 13% in the general elections
2013. Results of the elections show that unlike the other provinces of Pakistan, in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa three different political parties with majority voters‟ support came into power
in these elections. Historically, it is the first time that two consecutive elected governments
completed their tenure in Pakistan. In general elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa unlike
traditional political parties i.e., ANP, PPP, PML-N, JUI and JI a new political party Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf won with majority votes.
2
Table No. 1
Political Parties Position in three general elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Political Parties % of Votes General
Elections 2002
% of Votes
General Elections
2008
% of Votes
General
Elections 2013
MMA/JI &JUI 42% 12% 23%
ANP 8% 16% 7%
PTI 0.5 00 27%
PPP 9% 17% 7%
PML-N 12% 12% 15%
PML-Q 12.76% 14% 0.18
Independent 17% 24% 13% Source: Election Commission of Pakistan
Table-1 shows a detail sketch of the percentage votes of different political parties
and independent candidates in the last three general elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It
shows an unpredictable approach of the electorate in the province. Hence may generally
classified into two categories; partisan and floating voters.1 The partisan are those who hold
affiliation with a political party and accept its ideological frame (Campbell et al., 1960;
Converse, 1969; Drummond, 2006; Lipset and Rokkan, 1967; Rose and Urwin, 1970).
Campbell et al. (1960) argued that a voter who consecutively votes two times a party is
called partisan voter. On the other hand, floating voters are changing their political loyalties
in each election. However, floating voters have great impact on elections results. Therefore,
a question of importance in the context of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
is; under what circumstances do these floating voters decide their vote choice in elections?
How party, social networks, national and international issues, personality of a candidate,
religion or some other phenomena determine their voting behaviour?
Political parties are indispensable element of democratic system. In fact in
developing countries, such as Pakistan, the democratic process has often been disrupted by
military dictatorial regimes or their indirect interference in the political processes.
Therefore, the democratization process is failed to strengthen in Pakistan. The political
system of Pakistan is based on multi-party system, which can be categorized into religious,
1 Floating voters are those voters who are frequently changing their political loyalties in each election. They
are opposite to the partisan voters.
3
Ethno-Nationalist (secular) and Rightists political parties. The religious political parties
consist of Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam (Fazal-ur-Rehman), Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam (Sami ul
Haq), Pakistan Awami Tehreek, Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan, Jamiat Ulama-i-Pakistan and
other religio-political parties etc. On the other hand, ethno-nationalist and left-wing political
parties‟ include Pakistan People‟s Party, Awami National Party, Muttahida Qaumi
Movement, Qaumi Watan Party, Balochistan National Party, National Awami Party and
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. The rightist group of parties includes Pakistan Muslim
League (all factions) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf etc. These political parties have
developed a support base in the voters. During elections, voters who have an affiliation with
a party preferably poll their votes in favour of their respective political party only.
1.2 RATIONALE FOR SELECTING 2013 GENERAL ELECTIONS AND
KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
The 2002 elections were held in a time when a system of „controlled‟ democracy was in
practice in Pakistan. An Army serving General was the head of the state and government,
and the elections were conducted in a deteriorated situation in the wake of US attack on
Afghanistan. Political activities were limited after the coup d'état in 1999. Conducting
research on an election in such a situation could not possibly give the appropriate results.
Moreover, as this study primarily takes into account the partisan and floating voters,
therefore, it would not have been possible to carry out research on a single election. 2008
elections were again held under Musharraf regime. Some of the political parties (JI, PTI,
and PMAP) boycotted the elections fearing of military interference and rigging. Being a
prominent part of MMA, JI severely affected the election results for the religious parties‟
alliance in 2008 elections. Studying such an election with the voter preferences and choices
could affect the objectives and ultimately the findings of the research. On the other hand,
the 2013 elections were held under a democratic regime and none of the prominent political
parties boycotted the elections, therefore, providing us a best possible opportunity (election)
4
to focus our research on. Furthermore, a democratic government has completed its five
years tenure for the first time, which could possibly have impacts on the voting preferences
and choices of the voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Also that based on the working definition
of partisan voter, “a voter who supports a political party in two consecutive elections” we
had to compare the three elections, as any two of the three could not serve our purpose of
the study.
1.3 LITERATURE REVIEW
Goldman (1966) argued that the way a voter have tendency to vote for a particular candidate
or political party on the polling day is called voting behaviour. The academic study of
voting behaviour has a long and vibrant history. Ricci (1984) illustrated that voting
behaviour has been important area of research in Political Science since 1940‟s. In fact, the
decision to vote a candidate is generally influenced by the education, economic status, class,
gender, age, profession, religion, personality, issues, and social networks. The proponents of
Colombian School2 link voting behaviour to socio-economic and other social factors, while
the Michigan School3 mostly concentrates on the psychological and political factors
(Anderson and Stepenson, 2010; Berelson et al., 1954; Campbell et al., 1960; Blais et al.,
2001).
However, issue voting,4 clientelism, election campaigns and popularity of party
leaders, personality of candidate and performance also affect the electoral choices and
voting preferences of the people. Kwon (2008) argued that an individual attitude towards
2 Colombian School is also known as sociological model of voting behaviour. The proponents of the
Colombian School of thought believed that voter‟s decision is influenced by social factors like social status,
friends, relatives and family. See for detail (Berelson, B., Lazarsfeld, P. F. and McPhee, W. N., (1954).
Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press). 3 Michigan School or psychological model based on party identification theory. Michigan School also argued
that voting behaviour is influenced by psychological factors rather than sociological factors. For detail see
1). Campbell, A. C., E. Philip, Miller, E. Warren and Stokes, E. Donald (1960). The American Voter. New
York: Wiley. 2). Campbell, Angus, Converse, E. Phillip, Miller, E. Warren and Stokes, E.Donald (1966).
Elections and the Political Order. New York: Wiley. 4 Issue voting means voters casting their votes in elections on the basis of socio-political and economic
considerations. During elections, the contesting candidates highlight the local and national issues. Those
candidates also presented the solution of all those issues. Voters evaluate the candidates‟ approach towards
those issues and chose the best option.
5
voting come out of the assessment of the personality of a candidate, evaluation of
incumbent government performance and ideological leaning towards a political party. In a
democratic system, political parties provide a platform to participate in state affairs. As a
matter of fact, a political party imparts training to those individuals who play their part in
state business. Political parties, therefore, are playing a significant role in shaping the voting
behaviour. Occasionally, candidate‟s personality traits and his reputation as a public-spirited
figure also influence vote choice. Various studies reveal the voters‟ prefer economically
strong and stable candidates (Khan, 1986). On the other hand, vote choice of an individual
is also subjected to his personal preferences over issues such as contesting candidate‟s
assistance in court-related matters, construction of schools, streets and roads, highlighting
and solving the issues of load-shedding, unemployment, terrorism and poverty etc. Many
researchers argue that in developing societies, political patronages are being used as a tool
to get the support of common people in elections (Conover et al., 1985: Hasnain, 2008:
Budge and Farlie, 1983). Aziz Khan (1970) also illustrates the importance of patron-client
relationship in developing societies such as Pakistan and Bangladesh.
Likewise, Saghir Ahmad (1977) work identified the role of class structure and
traditional kinship in shaping voting behaviour in Punjab. Anwar (2016) and Rais (1985)
studies reveal the importance of Biradari5 (Brotherhood) and tribalism in determining
voting behaviour in Punjab. Wilder (1999) and Syed (1991) also highlighted the influence
of Biradari (Brotherhood) on the vote choice of the voters in Punjab. Ishtiaq Ahmad et al.
(2017) shed light on the election campaign strategies of Pakistan Muslim League-N in
general elections 2013 in Punjab. Umbreen Javaid and Urwa Elahi (2014) argued that in
5 The Biradari system is a social structure that is classified into three quoms in Punjab. The Zamindar quom
who are land owing class have economically and socially strong status in society. This class is further
categorized into two groups i.e. landowners and tenant cultivators. The second element of Biradari is kammi
quom which performs non-agricultural duties. The third element of Biradari is Muslim Sheikh or landless
workers. Sheikhs are the poorest class of Biradaris in Punjab. All these three groups are working together
and interdependent on each other. The most famous biradaris in Punjab are Jatt, Gujjar, Kokars and Syeds.
For detail see Muhammad Faiz Anwar. (2016). Role of Biraderi in Politics: A Case Study of Voting
Behaviour in Jhok Bodo Village, District Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan Journal of History and Culture,
.XXXVII (2).19-36.
6
rural areas of Punjab, personality of candidate and Biradarism (Brotherhood) influence the
voter‟s decision, while in urban areas the citizens tend to vote on the basis of performance.
However, election campaign is also performing a vital role to convince voters (Usman et al.,
2013).
Likewise, other provinces of Pakistan, economic, political, psychological and social
determinants are shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Various studies have
figured out these different determinants of voting behaviour in the province. Bashir (1973)
for example argued that in 1970 general elections, economic and social factors determined
the voting behaviour of the electorates in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Conversely, Muhammad
Rizwan (2014) argued that in 1970 elections, tribalism and ethnic loyalties manipulate the
disposition of vote in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Shakeel Ahmad‟s (2010) study emphasized on
the role of political determinants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa‟s urban communities and patron-
client patterns in the rural areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He also asserted that voting
behaviour changes with the passage of time due to industrialization, social cleavages and
current national and international issues (Ahmad, 2010). However, Farmanullah, in his
work, identified the role of clientelism in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Farmanullah, 2014). Farmanullah and Islam (2014) argue that party identification do not
constitute a determinant of voting behaviour in general elections 2008 in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
Though these studies and some other give a detail account of voting behaviour, its
dynamics and the role of issue voting, religion, personality, party and social networks in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, yet, a detailed and systematic research work on floating voters is still
lacking. This study is an attempt to introduce this new aspect of voting behaviour and
election studies in the available literature in the field.
7
1.4 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can be classified into two broad categories; partisan or party
affiliated voters and floating voters. In the first case, a voter is loyal to his/her respective
political party and vote for that on polling day. Apparently, partisans are committed to vote
for the nominated party candidates irrespective of their personal qualities or eligibility
standards. On the other hand, floating voters do not stick to a single party or candidate.
They can change their mind when come across certain situations during the election
campaign (Sianpar et al., 2012). They thus have a significant and determining role in the
victory of a candidate in elections. Political parties try to take full advantage of the situation
and attract as many floating voters as possible during their election campaign. They use
different techniques and tactics to attract floating voters such as corner meetings with family
elders (Masharan), social media campaigns (Facebook, Twitter, Whatsapp), public rallies
and wall chalking and in some cases even the use of money.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, voters are persuaded by the personality and personal
influence of candidate, issues, religiosity and social networks. The elections results show
that different political parties‟ candidates were elected in the three general elections (2002,
2008 and 2013). These included candidates belonging to Muttahida-Majlis-e-Amal (MMA),
Awami National Party (ANP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), Qawmi Watan Party (QWP),
Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan (JIP), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Pakistan People's Party
(PPP), Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-i-Azam). An
analysis of the voters‟ behaviour and their voting preferences with reference to the general
elections 2013 need to be brought to the surface which is somehow a new aspect of electoral
behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
1.5 RESEARCH QUESTION
Q1. Why the dynamics of voting behaviour frequently change in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?
8
Sub-Questions
1. What influences floating voters to vote in elections?
2. What is the role of political parties in shaping voting behavior in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?
3. In what manner a candidate‟s personality influences voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa?
4. What is the role of social networks (kinship or clan politics) in affecting voting behaviour in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa?
5. What role religion and issues play in influencing voters‟ preferences in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa?
1.6 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
To analyze the role of political parties in shaping voting behavior of the people
To examine the role of personality of candidate in influencing voters preferences in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
To evaluate the role of social networks in influencing voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa
To explore the role of religion in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
To know about the role of issues in determining voters preferences in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa
1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The study of various elections and their results in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa reveals that voters‟
preferences are continuously changing unlike other parts of Pakistan in terms of their
9
support in favour of or against mainstream political parties. This has affected the outcome
of elections results, bringing political parties and alliances of different shades to power in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Such an unpredictable voting behaviour necessitates the matter to be
investigated scientifically. It further makes the electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
different from other provinces of Pakistan. It is believed that a good percentage of floating
voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa which, along with the personality of politicians, issues,
religiosity, kinship and tribe or clan (Qaum or Khel) influence voting behaviour of the
people.
1.7 METHODOLOGY
In 1940s Paul Lazarsfeld (Sociologist) introduced survey research method (quantitative) to
examine people (political) behaviour, preferences and opinions. Quantitative research
methods are useful when a research problem is concerned with a wider society. It implies
that the bigger the sample size, the more accurate are the findings. Taking into consideration
the measurement of voting behavior associated with a wider society of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, quantitative research method of data collection, analysis and interpretation,
was thus adopted for this study. The overview of the previous studies on voting behaviour
also shows that quantitative methodology is suitable for this study. Data was collected
through a survey, comprising multi-stage random and systematic sampling from National
Assembly (NA) constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Questionnaire has long been a
primary means of gathering data on political beliefs, attitudes, and behaviour (Leighley,
2010). A close ended questionnaire was used for the data collection because it is easy for
respondents to answer and less time consuming. Closed-ended questionnaires are also less
expensive survey method and the response ratio of close-ended questionnaires in a survey is
higher than open-ended questionnaires survey (Dawson, 2002:16; Marsh, 1982). For
secondary data, help was taken from books, research articles published in journals
10
newspapers and online internet sources (government and non-government organizations
websites etc.).
1.7.1 Sample Size
The population of the study is total voters of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. To
get a representative sample size, the respondents were selected with a margin of 3% error
and 95% confidence level on the basis of the multi-stage sampling technique. A statistical
formula was used to determine the sample size. In terms of the numbers, the sample size n
and margin of error E are given below:
x = Z(c/100)
2r(100-r)
n = N x
/((N-1)E2
+ x)
E = Sqrt[(N - n)x
/n(N-1)]
Where N is the population size, r is the fraction of responses and Z(c/100) is the
Critical Value for the confidence level c. After the calculation, the sample size of 1200
respondents was determined. The Data was collected through the multi-stage sampling
technique as per details given below:
Stage 1: Twenty-five districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were divided into three clusters on
their geographical location. These geographical regions include Northern, Central and
Southern districts of the province.
Stage 2: Two constituencies were selected from each cluster through the random sampling
method. The total number of the selected constituencies was six.
1. In the Southern Zone District Karak and District Lakki Marwat (NA-15 and NA-27)
were selected.
2. In the Central Zone District Charsadda and District Mardan (NA-8, NA-9), while
3. In the Northern Zone District Chitral and District Lower Dir (NA-32, NA-34) were
selected.
11
Stage 3: Out of the six selected constituencies of National assembly, two union councils
were selected from each constituency through random sampling which thus become twelve
union councils. The list of union councils is given below:
1. NA-32 Union Councils Chiral-1 and Charun, NA-34 Union councils Haya Sarai and
Tazagram.
2. NA-8 union councils Hisara Nehri and Gandera, NA-9 union councils Mangah and
Saro Shah.
3. NA-27 union councils Tajori and Suleman Kheel, NA-15 union councils Jandari and
Mitha Khel.6
Stage 4: Hundred respondents were systematically selected from each union council on
equal basis (50 male and 50 female). All three geographical zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
have political and social heterogeneity. Therefore, the equal number of respondents (200
male and 200 female) is selected from each geographical zone. The second rationale for the
selection of the equal number of respondents is to provide equal representation to the people
of each zone.
1.8 DATA COLLECTION
Before starting data collection a comprehensive questionnaire was designed. The structuring
of questionnaire took almost three months. Before starting data collection, a pilot survey in
Allama Iqbal Hostel 9, of the University of Peshawar was conducted to test the validity of
the questionnaire7. Thirty questionnaires were distributed randomly in different rooms of
the hostel. The respondents were also requested to give their feedback on the questionnaire.
Some very valuable feedback was received from the respondents. Some of the respondents
6 For 2018 general elections these constituencies were shuffled and relocated. For example NA-32 Lower Dir
is renamed as Lower Dir-1 NA-6, NA-34 Chitral is now NA-1 Chitral, NA-8 Charsadda-1 is NA-23
Charsadda-1, NA-9 Mardan is NA-20 Mardan-1, NA-15 Karak is NA-34 Karak and NA-27 Lakki Marwat is
NA-36 Lakki Marwat. 7 Why the pilot survey is conducted in Allama Iqbal Hostel 9? This hostel is reserved for MPhil and Ph.D.
students of the University of Peshawar. Therefore scholar decided to conduct a pilot survey in the said
Hostel to get feedback. After collecting questionnaires different scholars write their feedback which was
incorporated.
12
could not understand the terminologies and concepts used in the questionnaire. Some of
them suggested making the questionnaire short and precise. As a result of the pilot survey,
structure of different questions was changed, and most of the questions were replaced by
statements and indirect questions. To make it more easy and understandable the
questionnaire was translated into Urdu. The reliability of the questionnaire was also tested
through SPSS. The result of the Alpha reliability test value was above 0.7 which proved that
questionnaire was reliable and needed no further changes.
Data collection was started on 15th
January 2017 from Jandari Union Council of
district Karak. This was a household survey, which was started from village Tarkha Koi of
Union Council Jandari. In the first step, questionnaires were distributed in the selected
houses and noted the names of those persons who received the questionnaires. In the rest of
the villages, questionnaires were equally distributed in male and female respondents. Those
respondents who were illiterate, the researcher himself or other data enumerator helped
them in understanding the questionnaire. The same procedure was adopted in Mitha Khel
Union Council of district Karak. In a similar and systematic way, data was collected in the
Central districts; Charsadda and Mardan. In district Charsadda and Mardan, help of two
female data enumerators was taken for data collection. In district Mardan Union Council
Kodinaka was selected in the first phase. However, majority of the people were not willing
to participate in the survey. It was therefore replaced with Union Council Mangah through
random sampling. In the Northern region data was collected from four union councils of
district Dir Lower. On the other side of Lowari Top, snowfall in Chitral disturbed the
scheduled plan for data collection. As a result, it took more than a month to collect data
from the two Union Councils (Charun, Chitral-1) of the district.
13
In the third stage the collected data from six districts was entered in SPSS-17
software and was analyzed through different statistical tools included t-test and Chi-Square
test8 and paired t-test
9.
1.9 IMPACT AND CONTRIBUTION OF THE STUDY
Elections play a very important role in the strengthening of democratic institutions. This
research is concentrated on the voting behaviour of the electorate. It is the electorate whose
decision in elections chose the elected members, who then form the government to rule the
country for a specific period. Stability in political institutions is a pre-requisite for the
successful functioning of any government.
The sound and logical choice of the electorate puts into power a party, which
pursues stable and consistent socio-economic policies for the benefit of the people at large.
Political stability on the other hand also strengthens confidence of the individual and groups
and energizes them for maximum investment in the country‟s economic and social future.
Unfortunately, Pakistan does not possess a good tradition of transfer of power from one
government to another. Elections results are usually contested. In the present study, the
scholar is trying to identify the changing behaviour of the voters. Outcome of the research
will be helpful for the policy makers while formulating policy matters related to Election
Commission of Pakistan on one hand and political parties on the other in formulating their
election manifestoes and campaign strategy to convince the voters on election day. The
study will be helpful in understanding the political behaviour of partisan voters which can
be incorporated in the political science courses offered at different levels.
8 Chi-Square Test is equal to Χc
2 = ∑ (Observed −Expected)
2/Expected). Chi-Square test is commonly
used for the association of two variables. Chi-Square test is only used for that data which randomly
collected (probability sample). The Chi-square test determines if there is dependence (association) between
the two classification variables. Hence, many surveys are analyzed with Chi-square tests. 9 Paired t-test is a parametric approach (or large sample size approach) used to compare means of two
paired groups (Dependent groups or matched groups).
14
1.10 CHAPTERS STRUCTURE
This dissertation is consists of nine chapters and a conclusion. Chapter first is the
introductory part which includes introduction to the topic, statement of the problem,
research objectives, literature review and methodology.
Chapter Two (Electoral History of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1932-2013) is composed
of a detailed electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This chapter starts with a short
history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the elections from pre-independence to the general
elections 2013. It also described in detail the position of different political parties in
National and Provincial Assemblies seats in each election.
The Third Chapter (Comparison of the Results of Three General Elections (2002,
2008, 2013) comparatively analyses the three previous elections in the selected
constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It provides a comparison of votes secured by
different political parties in general elections 2002, 2008 and 2013. The comparison of votes
secured by victorious candidates hence provides a clue of floating and party voters in the
selected constituencies.
Chapter Four (Identification of Floating Voters in Elections 2013) illustrates the
identification of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the introductory part of the
chapter, the available literature about floating voters is discussed in detail and a scale based
on different variables was developed and adopted for this study. These variables were
correlated with the other independent variables and Chi-square test was applied. On the
basis of those variables, floating voters among the respondents were identified.
Chapter Five (Partisanship Model in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) discuss the partisan
voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the first part of chapter different theories of party
identification are discussed. The party identification theory was operationalized and
different variables were correlated with other independent variables. After the analysis of
data, the partisan voters were identified in among the respondents.
15
In Sixth Chapter (Role of Personality of Candidate in General Elections 2013)
describes personality vote which is another important determinant of voting behaviour in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This chapter consists of two parts. In the first part different theories
regarding charisma and other features of personality are discussed. The second part of the
chapter is consists of the field data. Different variables regarding personality votes were
correlated with the independent variables.
Chapter Seven (Issue Voting Model) explains the issue voting in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. A theoretical framework on the basis of available literature was formulated.
The field data was analyzed by engaging those theories. The variables regarding the issue
voting were correlated with other independent variables. The results of the data identified
issue voters in different parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Chapter Eight (Role of Religion in Shaping Voting Behaviour) illustrates the impact
of religion on voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It argues that, like other social and
political factors religion is also playing a key role in the electoral politics and voters
preferences of the province. The field data figures out that religion is still an important
factor in voters‟ choice and preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
In Chapter Nine (Role of Social Networks in Shaping Voting Behaviour) the role of
social networks in shaping voting behaviour is discussed. Social networks like family, tribe,
friends and relatives influence the voting behaviour of an individual. The introductory part
of the chapter shed light on some previous research studies within Pakistan and other
countries of the globe. On the basis of the available literature, a scale was developed which
illustrates that which of the voter is influenced by social networks in the selected
constituencies.
The Last part provides a conclusion of the study and its main findings. It concludes
with the discussion on key findings of the study and identifies research gaps for further
studies in electoral politics and voting behaviour.
16
CHAPTER – 2
ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
(1932-2013)
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Regular elections contribute positively in the political development and democratization
process of developing societies. This is sorrowful that in Pakistan, elections are not
conducted regularly unlike some other developing countries. The electoral history of
Pakistan witnessed disruption in electoral processes since the early 1950s. After the
independence, Pakistan, witnessed four dictatorial regimes that derailed the democratization
process. This chapter focuses on the electoral history of Pakistan in general and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa in particular. The electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa commenced from
1932. The first phase of the study consists of the pre-independence era that is started from
1932 till 1947, the second phase is the post-independence era which started from 1947 to
1970, and the last phase consists on ten (10) general elections from 1970 till 2013.
In most developing societies the political parties are personality oriented
organizations (Hayes, 1997). Pakistan is not an exception in this regard as dynastic politics
is common and majority of political parties are dominated by a single family or individuals,
for example Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP),
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Awami National Party (ANP), Muttahida Qawmi
Movement (MQM), Qaumi Watan Party (QWP), Jamiat-i-Ulema Islam-F (JUI-F) etc. This
section of the study aims at highlighting the history of election campaign and the political
scenario during elections. It also explores the history of different national assembly and
provincial assembly elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A detail description is given on the
role of political parties in different elections, their vote bank and seats secured in provincial
assembly and national assembly in different elections in the province.
17
2.2 PRE-INDEPENDENCE ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER
PAKHTUNKHWA (FORMER NWFP)
The first election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was held in 1932. Sir Ralph Griffith became the
governor of North West Frontier Province on April 18, 1932 (Shah, 2017). The British for
the first time came into direct contact with the North West Frontier region in 1808 because
of the fear of the possible French army attack on Afghanistan and Persia. For this purpose
they sent a mission to Afghanistan and offered their help and cooperation in such a critical
situation.
Before that the British signed treaties with the Sikh in 1806 and 1809 for limiting
their rule and establishing peace in the frontier region. However, the Sikh continued their
expeditions in the Frontier region. In 1818 Sikhs started invasions in Frontier region and
occupied Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu, Nowshera and Peshawar. Till 1849 the region was in
direct control of the Sikh. They were defeated by the British in the 2nd
Anglo-Sikh war on
29th
March 1849. The frontier region came under the rule of British East India Company
and was annexed in the Punjab province (Islam, 2014:2). After the 1857 „War of
Independence‟ Britishers started rule in sub-continent.
On November 9th
, 1901, Viceroy Lord Curzon, separated the Frontier region from
Punjab province on administrative grounds and formed North West Frontier Province
(Ahmad, 2011). North West Frontier Province (NWFP) was composed of Peshawar,
Hazara, Bannu Kohat, and Dera Ismail Khan Districts along with the political agencies of
Khyber, Kuram, Malakand, North Waziristan and South Waziristan.10
The frontier province
was administered and controlled by Chief Commissioner, an Agent of the Viceroy of British
India (Shah, 2017:12).
After the establishment of NWFP for the next three decades British government
could not introduce constitutional and electoral reforms in this province. The main reasons
10
In 1973, Orakzai Agency and Bajaur was declared Agencies.
18
were strategic location and internal security of the province. British government invited
prominent Pakhtun notables to join Governor‟s Council.
There was restricted franchise for local government institutions in India since 1884
(Bose and Jalal, 1988). In 1892, members of the local bodies‟ had the right to elect
provincial assemblies members, who in turn had to elect a particular number of Central
Legislative councilors. The 1909 and 1919 constitutional reforms extended franchise and
number of elected members in different legislative councils (Ahmad, 2011). As a result of
civil disobedience activities of the Khudai Khidmatgar11
, British government declared
frontier regions to be a Governor‟s province in 1932 (Shah, 2007:32).
The Khudai Khidmatgars (KK) politico-social influence in NWFP was upheld due to
their struggle for political and constitutional reforms. All India Muslim League also
supported constitutional reforms in NWFP. Under the new political and administrative
setup, Chief Commissioner of NWFP, position changed into the Governor on April 18th
,
1932. On the same day, Lord Willington inaugurated the Legislative Council in NWFP
(Shah, 2007). The Legislative Council was consisted of forty (40) elected and nominated
members. Out of forty members, twenty-eight (28) were elected and twelve (12) nominated
members. Moreover, among the Legislative Council members, one Sikh, five Hindus and
twenty-two were to be Muslims. Five Europeans, one Sikh and Muslim official each, four
non-official Muslims and one Sikh non-official seat reserved for nominated members of the
Legislative Council. In NWFP Khan Bahadur Ghafoor Khan of Zaida was chosen the first
president and member of Legislative Council and another prominent political figure Sir
Sahibzada Abdul Qayyum was nominated the Minister of transferred department. Another
prominent figure Sheikh Abdul Hamid was appointed as Secretary of the Legislative
Council. However, minsters and Legislative Council had no authority to intervene in tribal
11
Khudai Khidmatgar is a Pashto term which means Servants of God. Khudai Khidmatgar movement was a
non-violent movement against Britishers. Khan Abdul Ghafar Khan started Khudai Khidmatgar movement
in 1929. Later on this movement became more political against colonial empire. (for detail see the work
Syed Waqar Ali Shah, The Abdul Ghaffar Khan, the Khudai Khidmagars, Congress and the Partition of
India, Pakistan Vision, 8 (2).
19
areas affairs. Tribal policy remained under the direct control of governor. After the
implementation of constitutional reforms in 1932, electoral politics started in (NWFP)
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The four earlier historical developments that were, Khilafat
Movement, British system of indirect rule, constitutional reforms and civil disobedience
against the British provided a ground to the electoral politics in frontier province (Ahmad,
2011).
In NWFP electoral politics was a tool of the British interests. The British
government wanted reforms in bureaucracy based on positive support of the community
which is only possible through the engagement of local influential elements in lawmaking
process (Ahmad, 2011). Notables, Khans and tribal chiefs were nominated as members of
the Legislative Council, who were not elected members. British Raj continued the rule and
patronage of leading Khans in revenue collections and peace building in NWFP.
Khilafat Movement in the early 1920s also had a deep impact on the political scene
of NWFP. The Indian National Congress (INC) supported Khilafat Movement that created a
scenario of cooperation. This movement provided an opportunity for the Muslims political
leaders of NWFP to participate in active politics. The most prominent among those were the
two brothers from Charsadda Dr. Khan Sahib and Bacha Khan (Khan Abdul Ghafar Khan).
Abdul Rauf (2006) argued that, “the relationship between Khudai Khidmatgar Movement
and Khilafat Movement was sustained through Anjuman-i-Islah-ul Afaghina (Society for the
Reform of the Afghans) which was formed in the wake of the collapse of the Hijrat
Movement”. On the other hand, the demand for constitutional developments strengthened
Khudai Khidmatgar stance against British Raj (Rauf, 2006).
2.2.1 The 1932 Legislative Council Elections in (NWFP) Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The political and constitutional developments in the Frontier province provided a
background for the Legislative Council elections that was held in April 1932. The turnout
ratio in NWFP was significantly higher than other parts of British India (Ahmad, 2006).
20
Restrictive franchise system of voting limited the electorate to four per cent (4%) of the
total population. The qualification for a voter was property therefore legislature was
dominated by wealthy and feudal class. In Peshawar, the minority candidate and the leader
of Hindu Saba Rai Sahib Mahr Chan Khanna received a three to one majority over C.C.
Gosh. He was a banker and urban landlord, who wanted the protection of Hindus interests.
On the other hand Gosh contest election as a Congress representative. Similarly, Rai Sahib
Rochi Ram, President of the DIKhan Hindu Saba, secured majority votes and defeated
Bhanju Ram Gandhi, another former Congressman, in Dera Ismail Khan (Ahmad, 2011).
Muhammad Shakeel Ahmad (2011) argued that in 1932 Legislative Council election, party
identification model seemed successful. People had affiliation with different political
parties. In two urban Muslim constituencies, Pir Baksh and Malik Khuda Baksh choose on
the basis of their nationalist repute in NWFP. Conversely, in rural Muslim constituencies,
the personal influence of the candidate and their family status in locality played a key role
in shaping voting behaviour. This election resultantly won by dominant elite class in their
respective constituencies of NWFP. In rural areas, two hereditary Nawabs, two Arababs,
three non-tribal chieftains, seven tribal chiefs and a cleric won the election. Tribalism,
factional alignments and religious issues considerably influenced the results of elections in
NWFP.
As a result of 1932 Legislative Council election, three nationalist candidates were
also elected. It is believed that tribal affiliations and family played a significant role in this
election. Habibullah Khan, the former Vice-President of the Bannu Congress secured the
majority votes because he had the backing of a sub-section (Gundis) of Marwat tribe.
Similarly, Abdul Qayyum Khan of Safaida won one seat in Hazara. The internal issues
among Swati Khans strengthen Qayyum Khan‟s support in election. After the election of the
Legislative Council, its members were distributed into Azad party, Liberal Party,
21
Progressive Party and minority party. All those political parties in the Legislative Council
had no formal organizational structure and ideological bases (Ahmad, 2011).
2.2.2 The 1936-1937 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The government of India Act 1935 awarded NWFP a full-fledged provincial status,
whereas, it did not replace the restricted franchise to adult franchise. However, in
government of India 1935 Act, the eligibility criteria for the voters were relaxed.
Resultantly, fourteen per cent (14%) of the total population obtained the right to vote for
provincial legislative councils. In 1932 election only three per cent of Indians had this right
(Gehlot, 1992:10). The provincial legislative council members were directly elected. But the
eligibility criteria for a voter were different from province to province. It was determined on
the basis of land revenue or house rent. It is assumed that the voters were mainly stirred by
communal considerations in their choices while exercising their right to vote (Gehlot,
1992:13).
In the 1935 Act, provincial autonomy was introduced and governor continued to
serve as head of provincial government. Subsequently, the provincial subjects were
transferred to the elected ministers. Under the 1935 Act, similar reforms were introduced in
the frontier province like other provinces of British India but Governor had additional
power of tribal affairs. In December 1936, one hundred and thirty-five (135) candidates
were nominated for the provincial legislative assembly. The nominated candidates divided
into different groups and political parties. Whereas Congress was more organized and
stronger than other parties and groups. As a result of involvement in civil disobedience
movement Congress was banned in NWFP. Congress decided to contest elections under the
banner of Provincial Parliamentary Board (PPB) (Janson, 1970:66). On the other hand,
Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan was banned in NWFP; therefore, his brother Dr. Khan Sahib had
to lead frontier Congress. Loyalty to the nationalist cause and support to agrarian reforms
22
opened ways for the nomination of Congress candidates. Small Khans of Khudai
Khidmatgar contested from Muslim constituencies in rural areas. While a majority of
lawyers contested the election in Muslim urban and general constituencies.
Many Khans contested the election independently. The prominent independently contesting
candidates were Khan Bahadur Arbab Sher Ali Khan, Major Nawab Sir Akbar Khan
(Nawab of Hoti), Nawabzada Mohammad Said Khan, Nawab of Teri Karak, Nawabzada
Allah Nawaz Khan and Nawab Zada Nasrullah Khan. However, those Khans who were not
part of KK, they were loyal to British Raj. Another important factor was the personal
interest of those Khans. As a result of those political developments in several constituencies,
KK benefited from the situation and the anti-Congress vote was split among the
rival Khans of NWFP (Ahmad, 2011). Two lawyers Malik Khuda Baksh and Pir Baksh of
Independent party were prominent in township areas. Independent party played the role of
opposition in previous legislative council of NWFP (Janson, 1970:70). However, in urban
areas, most of the Khudai Khidmatgar contesting candidates for general constituencies were
lawyers or doctors. Hindu-Sikh Nationalist Party was the main opposition party which was
established during the election campaign. Hindu Sabha and Singh Sabha were the main
elements of Hindu-Sikh Nationalist Party (HSNP). HSNP was controlled by wealthy
businessmen who were loyal to the British government. The HSNP highlight the issue of
Hindu-Gurmukhi in the election campaign. They demanded to cancel Hindu-Gurmukhi.
HSNP also demanded Urdu and English languages as medium of instruction in girls‟
schools. In 1937 election, the core committee of Muslim League did not allot a single ticket
NWFP. Throughout election campaign, a group of retired senior government officers were
supporting Muslim League. This group consists of Nawab Sir Sahibzada Abdul Qayyum,
Khan Bahadur Kuli Khan and Khan Bahadur Saadullah Khan. Moreover, the Khans of
Hazara district were fully supporting Sir Abdul Qayyum (Ahmad, 2011).
23
The political activities in Peshawar and Mardan demonstrated a strong party
identification model in election. Khudai Khidmatgars‟ political activities had deep-rooted
party politics in Peshawar and Mardan districts. According to Cunningham, the election in
Mardan and Peshawar districts were mainly dominated by Khudai Khidmatgars and its rival
political parties. Those rival political parties used religion during election campaign against
Khudai Khidmatgars (Shah, 1992:20). Janson (1970:71) said that the opponents of Congress
highlighted the influence of Hinduism on Bacha Khan and his family. Secretary of State
Lord Zetland also pointed out the role of factional and religious factors in 1937 election.
Some candidates registered their nomination papers with the hope that they would be paid
to withdraw during the election campaign (Ahmad et al, 2014). Due to the lack of political
awareness, in India as a whole and specifically in NWFP, the majority of the voters were
not familiar with the process of voting. In rural areas, the Congress used these two tools:
vote to Mr. Gandhi, thereby affirming personality influence in voting behaviour. On the
other hand a large number of Khudai Khidmatgars had also used the same technique to
canvass voters (Ahmad et al, 2014).
The 1937 election was considered the first election in British India. Some of the
British officials stated that during polling, Congress political agents called Congress ballot
box „Gandhi box‟ to attract voters. During the election campaign, the voters were informed
that if Congress secured victory all the unpopular laws would be repeal. Elections for fifty
members of Provincial Assembly were scheduled in February 1937 (Ahmad, 2011). Polling
scheduled from 1st February to 10 February 1937. A total number of registered voters were
179,529 (14% of the population). In 1937 elections, total turnout was 72.8%. In Muslim
constituencies, the ratio of turnout was highest while lowest in Sikhs constituencies. Table-2
shows the 1937 election results for the Muslim rural areas.
24
Table No. 2
NWFP 1937 Elections Results
Political Party Types of Constituencies
Seats Landhold
ers
General
Rural
General
Urban
Muslim
Rural
Muslim
Urban
Sikh Total
(PPB) Congress -- 3 1 15 -- -- 19
Independent Party -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
Independent Muslim 2 -- -- 18 1 -- 21
HSNP -- 3 1 -- -- 3 7
Independent Hindu -- -- 1 -- -- -- 1
Independent party -- -- -- -- 2 -- 2
Total 2 6 3 33 3 3 50
Source: Muhammad Shakeel Ahmad (2011). Electoral Politics in NWFP: A Case Study of 1937 Elections,
Pakistan Journal of History and Culture, XXXII (2), 117-131.
In 1937 elections, the Provincial Parliamentary Board (Congress) secured nineteen
seats, seven seats won by HSNP and two won by Independent Party. Twenty-two seats won
by independent candidates. In Pakhtun rural areas, the Provincial Parliamentary Board
(PPB) well performed particularly in Mardan and Peshawar districts. Provincial
Parliamentary Board won all Muslim rural seats in Peshawar and three seats in district
Mardan. In district Mardan two Congress candidates were disqualified by the British
government. Later on, Congress filed petitions and won the by-elections (Islam, 2014:95).
Table No. 3
Distribution of the Muslim Rural Seats in 1937 Elections in the NWFP
Districts in NWFP
Political Party Peshawar Mardan Hazara Kohat D.I.Khan Bannu
Khudai
Khidmatgar (KK) 7 3 2 1 1 1
Independent -- 2 7 3 3 3
Source: Returns showing the Results of Elections in India 1937
Frontier Congress faced difficulties to get majority votes, and it won two Muslim
urban constituencies in district Hazara. The general seats were distributed in Hindu-Sikh
Nationalist Party and Congress. On the other hand, Muslim independent candidates‟ seats
were won by those Khans who were loyal with the British government. The most important
post-election development was the establishment of „United Nationalist Party‟ by Sir Abdul
Qayyum. The United Nationalist party made a government with the help of independent
members (Shah, 1992:28). Eventually, on 1st April 1937, Sir Abdul Qayyum formed a
25
coalition with HSNP. As a result of this coalition, Sir Abdul Qayyum Khan formed a
Ministry in NWFP. But this government could not survive for a long time. On 22nd
June,
Viceroy‟s statement persuaded Congress which was a majority political party to form a
government in India. Consequently, in July 1937, Congress that was a major political party
made government in seven provinces. Progressive forces also joined hands with Congress in
the frontier. The opposition political parties (HSNP and Hazara Democratic Party) led by
Dr. Khan Sahib passed a No-Confidence Motion on 3rd
September 1937 against the
incumbent government. The No-Confidence motion was passed by twenty-one (21) out of
twenty-seven (27) votes. Because of this No-Confidence motion, the incumbent government
loses majority in the provincial legislative council. Dr. Khan, Democratic Party and
Congress formed government in province. This coalition government remained in power for
two years and six months (Janson, 1970:71).
In 1937 elections, the manifestoes of Congress and Muslim League were quite
similar, in terms of addressing people's needs and securing the freedom from the British
Raj. However, they had differences on the question of communal leadership. The most
significant factors, that seriously troubled Congress-League relationship, were the Congress
tendency towards a „Uni-Party‟ political system in India that assumed the submergence of
other political parties (Hulman, 2013:10).
2.2.3 The 1946 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Congress ministries resigned due to the unilateral decisions of the British government
regarding involvement of India in the 2nd
World War. Muslim League celebrated the day of
deliverance against the Congress ministries on 22nd
December 1939. When Second World
War ended in 1945, Viceroy Lord Wavell in Simla Conference fixed date for the next
legislatives elections in India. The Viceroy also suggested the formation of an Executive
Council after the election. He also recommended the presence of prominent political parties
in Executive Council. As a result of the elections, constituent assembly was formed.
26
During that time, „Pakistan Movement‟ has got considerable importance and
attention of the common people in NWFP. However, Muslim League was unable to get
significant benefit from this situation as it was divided in different factions. The candidates
were selected by the Provincial Selection Committee (PSC) which although was headed by
Nawab of Mamdot, but the real power of the selection was vested in the hands of the board
convener Khan Abdul Qayyum Khan. Some senior leaguers who were denied nomination
for the election appealed before the Central Selection Committee (CSC) for review.
However, the Central Selection Committee rejected all the appeals except Mian Ziauddin‟s
appeal (Janson, 1970:147).
The election campaign of Muslim league candidates was ill-organized and based on
personal disputes. On the other hand, Congress campaign was well organized and
planned. The election was conducted on 26th
January and 14th
February 1946 with restricted
franchise. After the completion of polling the election results were announced on 18th
February 1946. Khudai Khidmatgar secured thirty seats, while Muslim League won
seventeen seats. Khudai Khidmatgar won nearly all seats in Pakhtun dominated areas,
whereas it failed to show reputation in Non-Pakhtun constituencies. On the other hand, in
Dera Ismail Khan, Jamiat-ul-Ulema Hind became victorious (Janson, 1970:151). Detail of
the 1946 elections assembly seats is given in Table-4.
Table No.4
1946 Elections Results of the NWFP Legislative Assembly
Political Parties Muslim
Rural
Muslim
Urban
General
Rural
G.
Urban
Sikh Land-
Holders
Total
Khudai
Khidmatgar (KK) 18 1 6 3 2 -- 30
Muslim League 13 2 -- -- -- 2 17
Jamiat-ul- Ulema
Hind 2 -- -- -- -- -- 2
Akali Dal -- -- -- -- 1 -- 1
Total 33 3 6 3 3 2 50
Source: Janson, 1970: 151
Ahrars, Khaksars, Jamiat-ul Ulema Hind and Akali Dal also actively participated in
1946 polls. Ahmad et al. (2014) argues that in 1946 election, “traditional rivalries between
27
Pakhtun and Non-Pakhtuns and other horizontal and longitudinal stratification determined
the voting behaviour of the people in NWFP”.
2.3 POST-INDEPENDENCE ELECTIONS ERA (1947-1970)
2.3.1 The 1951 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The first election for the NWFP Legislative Council in post-independence was held on 15th
December 1951. Before elections, the government introduced some electoral reforms in
which restricted franchise was replaced by adult franchise. However, Chief Minister,
Qayyum Khan was in favour of legislative council election but some other Leaguers had
personal concerns regarding the election in NWFP. In March 1951, the Constituent
Assembly of Pakistan passed the NWFP General Elections Bill that open the way for
election. As a result of this bill, the Provincial Assembly was to be dissolved but Qayyum
Khan was retained as the interim Chief Minister of NWFP. On the other hand, the number
of the assembly seats was increased from fifty to eighty-five. Out of eighty-five seats only
three were reserved seats. It is also believed that election was influenced by the Muslim
League and it also used different tactics to threaten Khudai Khidmatgar and other political
parties. Qayyum Khan, the interim Chief Minister of NWFP fully supported the League in
election campaign. The interim government of Qayyum Khan was also involved in the
rescheduling of the Mardan and Kohat election dates, delimitations of constituencies and
rigging. The League campaign was well organized, rather than the other political parties. In
1951 general elections, Muslim League and Jinnah Muslim League were two main rival
political parties (Hassan, 2008). The details of the 1951 election are given in Table-5 below.
28
Table No. 5
1951 General Elections in NWFP
Political Parties Seats
Muslim League 67
Jinnah Awami Muslim League 04
Independents 13
Non-Muslim 1
Total 85 Source: M. Rafique Afzal (1986). Political Parties in Pakistan (1947-1958). (Vol.1), Islamabad: National
Institute of Historical and Cultural Research, p.66.
The ruling Muslim league again succeeded with majority seats and secured sixty-
seven out of eighty-five seats in NWFP. However, Jinnah‟s Awami Muslim League12
a
single opposition party secured four seats (all in the district Peshawar). Moreover, thirteen
(13) independents candidates and one non-Muslim candidate won the rest of legislative
council seats in NWFP. After the election, all the independent candidates and non-Muslim
candidates joined hands with the Muslim League and made government in NWFP (Afzal,
1986:66).
2.3.2 Elections in Ayub Khan Era (1959-65)
General Ayub Khan introduced non-party local bodies‟ elections to preserve the „Status
quo’. In 1959, the first round of „Basic Democracies‟ elections was held in the whole
country. However, in the first round of BDs elections, eighty thousand (80,000) (later
increased to 120,000) councilors were directly elected. The bureaucracy was also part of
BDs system and it had control over the allocation of funds to local developmental schemes.
Waseem (1994:30) pointed out that district bureaucracy was totally involved in BD system.
According to Philip Jones, “the BD System was destined to become less a means of local
representation than an arm of the bureaucracy”, (Jones, 1979:188). Personality influence
and patronage were dominant factors of voting behaviour in 1959 elections.
Gen. Ayub Khan‟s second strategy was to use the „Basic Democrats‟ as an electoral
college to indirectly elect the President, the members of the National and Provincial
12
Husain Shaheed Suhrawardy established Jinnah Awami Muslim League in February 1950. Jinnah
Awami League was an opposition political party against the ruling Muslim League (For detail see M. Rafiq
Afzal (1986). Political Parties in Pakistan 1947-1958, Vol.1, Islamabad, NIHCR.)
29
Assemblies. Therefore, in presidential election a large number (95.6%) of BD members
supported Ayub Khan (Mujahid, 1965:94).
In November 1964, the BDs elections were held for the second time. The
Presidential election was held in January 1965. Majority of BDs (63.3%) of the Electoral
College again elected Ayub Khan as a president of Pakistan. While his rival Ms. Fatima
Jinnah merely secured thirty-six percent (36.4%) votes (Mujahid, 1965). The National
Assembly election was party-based indirect elections. Pakistan Muslim League Convention
(PML-C) of Ayub Khan secured 120 seats and Fifty-four percent (54.8%) of the total votes.
As a result, PML-C won majority seats in National Assembly. On the other hand, PML-C
won Forty-eight percent (48.8%) votes and ninety six (96) seats out of 147 seats in West-
Pakistan provincial assembly (Mujahid, 1965).
Table No.6
Presidential Election 1965 Results
Candidates E. Pak W. Pak Total Percentage
Ayub Khan 21,012 28,939 49,951 63.31
Miss Jinnah 18,434 10,257 28,691 36.36
Source: Hassan Askari Rizvi, (2000). The Military and Politics in Pakistan (1947-1997), Lahore: Sang-e-Meel
Publications, p.132.
The details of different political parties‟ position in the national assembly elections are
given in Table-7.
Table No.7
National Assembly Election Results
Political Party E. Pak W. Pak Total
PML-Convention 55 69 124
The Combined
Opposition Parties (COP)
14 01 15
Independents 09 08 17
Total 78 78 156
Source: Hassan Askari Rizvi, (2000). The Military and Politics in Pakistan (1947-1997) Lahore:
Sang-e-Meel Publications, p.133.
Gen. Ayub did not want to share powers with politicians and therefore he
promulgated 1962 Constitution that was one man show. The 1962 Constitution replaced the
parliamentary system into presidential system. This constitution enhanced the powers of
30
president and reduced the powers of parliament. Gen. Ayub dictatorial regime ended in
March 1969, because agitations and protests started against his policies in the whole
country. This movement forced President Ayub to resign and gave up powers to General
Mohammad Yahya Khan (Rizvi, 2000).
2.4 THIRD PHASE OF THE ELECTORAL HISTORY OF KHYBER
PAKHTUNKHWA (1970-2013)
In March 1969, the political scenario of Pakistan was totally different from October 1958.
In October 1958, common people were fed-up of the civilian government and political
instability therefore they welcomed Ayub‟s Martial Law regime. Later on, Ayub Khan
dictatorial regime was also rejected by the people and they started protests in East and West
wings of Pakistan. Protestors demanded to end the One-Unit system and fresh general
election on the basis adult franchise. When Gen. Yahya Khan (Second Chief Martial Law
Administrator) came into power he intended, “the peaceful transfer of power to the people
representatives” (Rizwan, 2014). Gen. Yahya Khan abrogated the 1962 Constitution,
implemented Legal Framework Order (LFO) on 30th
March 1970. The main feature of LFO
was the formulation of future constitution. However, many political parties criticized LFO
because they considered it was limited the legislation of National Assembly. Therefore it is
called „steel frame‟ (Muneer, 2012:63). LFO also contributed a lot to the structure of
making the future constitution. One-Unit system was abolished on 1st July 1970 as result of
which West Pakistan reorganized into four provinces (Punjab, Sind, North West Frontier
Province and Balochistan). Under the LFO national assembly seats for West-Pakistan were
313 that included thirteen (13) reserved for women. LFO also resolved the issue of
representation, and introduced popular representation system. After all these developments
first general elections were held on 7th
December 1970.
31
2.4.1 The 1970 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
In 1970, the first general elections were held on the basis of „adult franchise‟ in both wings
of Pakistan. In this election, electorates of NWFP were confused to decide which political
party is the best one, because they had different political parties in hand. In NWFP, a
number of political parties that included Wali Khan‟s National Awami Party (NAP),
Qayyum Khan‟s Muslim League, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam and Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan
started election campaign. When NAP had decided to contest elections, its position was
most prominent in the frontier (NAP divided into two factions one was Pro-Moscow, led by
Khan Abdul Wali Khan and other one is Pro-Peking, led by Bashani,). After the self-exile
of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, the leadership of NAP had passed to his son Khan Abdul
Wali Khan. Wali Khan changed the nature of his party politics and made it a patriot, liberal
and national standing. He transformed the Pakhtuns nationalist rigidity into more flexible
and pragmatic. Resultantly, NAP was counted in the national level political parties in
Pakistan. The election results and party position is given in Table-8.
Table No.8
National Assembly Elections Results
Political Parties Votes % N-A Seats
Pakistan People Party 14% 01
Pakistan Muslim League (Qayum) 23% 07
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 07% 01
National Awami Party 18% 03
Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan (Hazarvi Group) 25% 06
Independent candidates 06% 07
Pakistan Muslim League (Council) 04% 00
Pakistan Muslim League (Convention) 01% 00
All Pakistan Central Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam and
Nizam-e-Islam
01% 00
Pakistan Democratic Party 0% 00
All Pakistan Awami League 0% 00
Pakistan Masihi League 0% 00
Markazi Jamiat-ul-Ulema Pakistan 0% 00
Total 100 25
Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by
Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013
It is believed that hostilities between two major political forces NAP (W) and PML
(Qayyum) revived before 1970 elections. Eventually, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam which was a
32
third popular force benefited in the coming election from this political polarization. National
Awami Party won only three seats; however, JUI bagged six seats from the Southern
districts, Pakistan Peoples Party one seat and one seat by Jamaat-i-Islami. NAP secured
18.8% votes in National Assembly polls and 19.4% votes in the provincial assembly polls.
In this election, Khudai Khidmatgars support was reduced to (51.70%) from the 1946
provincial assembly election. In the Tribal Areas, National Awami Party secured seven
seats of independent tribal Maliks. As a result of elections, the NAP position was stronger
than other political parties in NWFP (Taqiudin, 1995:107-116). There was another
astonishing political development in the NWFP. During election campaign, JUP (H) used
the card of religion against NAP to attract voters and won a large number of seats in the
national assembly. On the other hand, Sharif Al Mujahid said, “in general terms the East
voted for an inward-looking Bengali ethno-centrism, the West for integration. Not only
Punjab‟s vote for the PPP, and the complete rout of the regionalist Sind United Front, but
also the more surprising NWFP‟s preference for the QML and JUP (H) as against the
Pakhtoon-oriented NAP (W) is a vote for integration and a fairly strong center” (Mujahid,
1971).
Table No.9
Provincial Assemblies Elections Results
Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP)
National Awami Party 13
Pakistan Muslim League (Q) 10
Independent Candidates 06
Jamiat-Ulema-Islam 04
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) 03
Conventional Muslim League 02
Council Muslim League 02
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 01
Total 40 Source: Shahid Javid Burki, State and Society in Pakistan 1971-77 (Landon: The Macmillan Press Limited,
1980), p.191.
As a result of 1970 provincial elections, NAP secured majority thirteen (13) seats,
followed by PML-Q with ten (10) seats in NWFP. While independent candidates secured
33
the third position with six seats and JUI four seats while PPP bagged three seats in
provincial assembly. Conventional Muslim league and Council Muslim League secured two
seats each and JIP got one seat in provincial assembly. In East-Pakistan (Bengal), Pakistan
Muslim League (PML) could not secure a single seat. While, Awami League (AL) emerged
most popular political party Bengali electorate, and Pakistan People‟s Party got majority
votes at national level but not a majority party in NWFP. Rizwan (2014) argued that
kinship, tribal structure were influence voters preferences in NWFP.
2.4.1.1 JUP and 1970 Elections
JUP (H) announced its manifesto and future programme on 20th
January 1970. The main
point of JUP (H) manifesto was assurance of Islamic constitution in Pakistan. In May 1970,
JUI made a n alliance with nineteen religious political parties. This alliance was headed by
JUI leader Mufti Mehmood. Two other prominent religious figures Bashir Ahmed Bakhtiar
and Kausar Niazi were appointed secretaries. Regardless of this political alliance, the JUP
(H)‟s election campaign was organized by its own party committee. During the election
campaign, Mufti Mahmud appealed to the voters to accept Islam as an ideology and to
endorse the party programme. In this election Ninety (90) JUI candidates submitted their
papers for National Assembly in West-Pakistan and fifteen in East-Pakistan. JUI bagged
only seven seats West-Pakistan (Taqiudin, 1995:107-116).
2.4.2 The 1977 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
As result of the 1970 elections, Pakistan is divided into two parts, and eastern part became
an independent state Bangladesh. The 1970 general elections played the role of a catalyst in
the separation of East-Pakistan. After this tragic incident, Gen. Yahya transferred powers to
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. He was the first civilian Martial Law administrator of Pakistan. Later
on, Bhutto took oath as a Prime Minister of Pakistan. After the completion the government
tenure, Bhutto scheduled next election in 1977. M. G. Weinbaum (1977) argued that
34
Pakistan People‟s Party failed to secure the support of urban middle class. On the other
hand, urban poor and industrial labour were supporting it consistently.
Aijaz Ahmad in his work critically analyzes the situation;
“PPP had to be an apparatus predominantly of the radical petty bourgeoisie in
the pre-election [1971] phase when the main objective was to secure a mass
base and an electoral majority, particularly in the countryside. Once, however,
the PPP had formed a government on the social democratic premise of seeking
reforms within the predicates of the state as already constituted… its Left
Wing was faced with the objective choice of either accepting the exigencies of
the State or getting liquidated. In the event, the Left was of course liquidated
(Ahmad, 1978).”
In NWFP Bhutto turned towards rural notables for political support and therefore, allotted
tickets to Khans and elites class. In 1970 elections PPP slogan was against feudal
landowners, but in 1977 elections it changed into „bring an end to feudalism in Pakistan‟
(PPP Manifesto, 1970:13). Bhutto was surprised to see that, all anti-PPP political parties,
joining Pakistan National Alliance (PNA). PNA was established on 21st January 1977 that
included nine political parties (PDP, NDP, NAP, JUI, JUP, JI, ML (P), TI, AJKC, and
Khaksar Tehrik) (Nohlen, Grotz, Hartmann, 2001:661-665). The PNA united all social
groups and particularly middle-class people, which had been suffered from the policies of
PPP government (Rizwan, 2014). When the elections results announced, PPP won majority
(155 out of 200) seats in national assembly. PNA secured only thirty-six (36) of national
assembly. Interestingly, PNA bagged the majority national assembly seats in NWFP. When
the elections results announced, PPP won majority (155 out of 200) seats. The result of the
election of different political parties‟ in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is given in Table-10.
35
Table No. 10
National Assembly Elections Results
Political party Percentage of Votes % Seats
PNA 49% 17
PPP 38% 08
PML (Qayyum) 08% 00
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam
(Hazarvi)
0.03% 00
Total 100% 25 Source: The first 10 General Elections of Pakistan; A Story of Transition from Democracy above
Rule of Law to Democracy Under Rule of Law: 1970-2013. Retrieved from
WWW.PILDAT.ORG (22/06/2015)
The national assembly elections were held on 7th
March 1977, PNA bagged
seventeen (17) seats and forty-nine percent (49%) polled votes of the national assembly
seats in NWFP. However, Pakistan Peoples Party secured eight seats and thirty-eight
percent (38%) of total polled votes. Unlike the 1970 elections PML-Qayyum vote bank
went down from 23% to 8% and could not secure a single national assembly seat in NWFP.
PNA started protests against PPP‟s and blamed the involvement in rigging. The PNA
movement demonstrated the growing political clout of the urban middle classes, but Bhutto
did not understand the consequences of that movement (PILDAT, 2015). The demands of
PNA were re-election, appointment of new governors, Election Commission staff and
district administration. Later on, Bhutto was agreed to accept the PNA‟s demands. Bhutto
wanted to sign agreement with PNA on 6th
July 1977, but General Zia imposed Martial Law
on 5th
July 1977 and sent Bhutto behind the bars and suspended the constitution. Later on,
Bhutto was hanged in 1979 by Zia government (Bhutto, 1988).
Table No. 11
Provincial Assembly Elections Results
S.No. Political Party Seats in Provincial
Assembly
1 Pakistan Peoples Party 65
2 Independents 4
3 Other political parties 14 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan
PNA boycotted the provincial elections and rejected the national assembly elections
results. In provincial assembly elections, PPP secured sixty-five out of total eighty-five
36
seats (eighty general, four women, and one minority). Similarly, four independent
candidates were elected and fourteen seats were claimed by other small political parties
(ECP, 1977).
2.4.3 The 1985 Non-Party Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
In 1985, Martial Law Administrator Gen. Zia Ul Haq decided to civilianize political
authority without completely transferring power to politicians. The 1985 elections were
party-less (Rais, 1985). Each one of the candidates contested election on her/his personal
influence rather than any political party attachment. The 1985 elections data is limited to the
candidates, therefore political party‟s position was not clear (Chandio, 2911). This non-
party election affected voting preferences of the voters in NWFP and other provinces of
Pakistan. The absence of political parties in elections compelled voters to give their votes on
the basis of family connections/relations, Biradari (brotherhood), the performance of the
candidate, personal influence, personality and kinship etc. The non-party election and ban
on the election campaign, public rallies and speeches prevented debate on national issues.
Moreover, only independent candidates could contest the election. The election campaign in
rural areas focused on local issues. Rais (1985) pointed out that social determents (tribe,
Biradari and family) and candidate personal influence determined voters‟ preferences.
Moreover, 1985 non-party elections revived the land-owning classes in national
politics. Out of two hundred (200) directly elected MNAs, 117 belonging to the landed
aristocracy, while seventeen (17) had the tribal social background; forty-two Seats were
businessmen, who form the second largest social group (Chandio, 2011). There was another
important development; despite conservative and feudal tendencies, the elected National
Assembly was a relatively young and fairly well-educated group of representatives. The
Gallup Pakistan survey describes, that two-thirds of the parliament members had a college
education and possessed a bachelor‟s or higher degree. The average age of national
assembly members was forty-five years; twenty-eight percent (28%) of them were under
37
forty. About half of the elected members of the national assembly had a party affiliation at
one time or another. As a result of 1985 elections, Mohammad Khan Junejo became the
prime minister of Pakistan. Gen. Zia passed 8th
amendment on November 14th
, 1985 that
affected the parliamentary nature of 1973 Constitution of Pakistan (Rais, 1985). In 8th
amendment, President had the right to nominate judges of High courts and Supreme Court,
governors of the four provinces and even Prime Minister. As a result of this amendment, the
head of the parliament who was Prime Minister became subservient to an unelected
President (Perveen, 2000). After some time, the Prime Minister Junejo‟s relations with
President Zia deteriorated. As a result, Junejo‟s government was dismissed on May 29,
1988 by General Zia (Rais, 1985).
2.4.4 The 1988 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
After the assassination of Gen. Zia on 17th
August 1988, Chairman Senate Ghulam Ishaq
Khan stepped as acting President of Pakistan. President Ishaq promised free and fair
election that was already scheduled by Gen. Zia on 16th
and 19th
November 1988 (Khan,
2009:389). The 1988 elections were held in a peaceful environment on November 16th
and
19th
. An important step had taken to stop rigging; the voter must show his/her identity card
in the polling station. The election turnout was less than fifty percent (50%). PPP secured
ninety-three (93) seats followed Islami-Jamhuri-Ittihad (IJI)13
with fifty-five (55) seats and
the rest of national assembly seats owned by independent and other small political parties.
In NWFP, IJI secured eight (8) seats and 27% of total polled votes, while PPP got nine seats
and 23% polled votes, ANP with 17% voters support secured only two seats. However,
independent candidates got three seats with 16% voters support and JUI-F bagged three
seats and 10% voters support. Table-12 shows the results and different political parties vote
bank.
13
Islami Jamhuri Ittihad (IJI): it was an alliance of nine disparate political parties, the main constituents
being the Pakistan Muslim league Junejo (PML-J), Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan, National Peoples Party and
independent Parliamentary groups.
38
Table No.12
National Assembly Elections Results
Political Parties Votes% Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(NWFP)
Islami-Jamhuri-Itehad (IJI) 27% 09
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) 23% 08
Awami National Party 17% 02
Independent 16% 03
Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal ur Rehman 10% 03
Jamiat-Ulema-e-Pakistan (Darkhasti Group) 02% 01
Pakistan Awami Ittehad 03% 00
Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Fiqah-e-Jafaria 01% 00
Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party 0.15% 00
Hazara Front (Mahaz-e-Hazara) 0.09% 00
Pakistan Milli Awami Ittehad (Pushtoonkhwa) 0.07% 00
Awami National Party (Ainee Group) 0.05% 00
Total 100 26 Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by
Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013
In NWFP, IJI with twenty-eight (28) seats on the top followed by PPP with twenty-
two (22) seats. Independent candidates‟ secured fifteen (15) seats and the last one were
Awami National Party which won thirteen (13) seats in provincial Assembly of NWFP
presented in Table-13.
Table No. 13
Provincial Assembly Election Results
Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP)
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) 22
Islami Jamhuri Ithehad (IJI) 28
Independents 15
Awami National Party (ANP) 13
Total 78 Source: 1988 General Elections in Pakistan Report
The 1988 elections results presented a multi-dimensional voting behaviour in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP). There were also political determinants in the shape of
political party identification, ideological attachment with a political party, election
campaign, manifesto of the party and the social and economic issues. Additionally,
personality vote and social networks were also played a key role in the voter choice. As a
result of the 1988 elections, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the political situation was complex,
because no single political party possessed majority in the provincial assembly. Pakistan
39
Peoples Party leader, Benazir Bhutto joined hands with Khan Abdul Wali Khan to form a
coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with the support of some independent
candidates (Khan, 2009:399). As a result of this coalition, Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao
became chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But this coalition did not stay long and after
a short time, ANP left the coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
2.4.5 The 1990 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Opposition political parties commenced a movement against Benazir Bhutto government,
and blamed her government‟s involvement in corruption and malpractices. As a result,
President Ishaq dissolved the national and provincial assemblies on 6th
August 1990 and
announced new elections. After the dismissal of PPP government, President Ishaq appointed
Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi caretaker Prime Minister. President Ishaq also announced date of
next elections that was 24th
October 1990 (Nohlen et al, 2001). Islami-Jamhuri-Ithihad (IJI)
and Pakistan People‟s Party (PPP) started an election campaign. During the election
campaign, IJI blamed PPP on corruption and malpractices like previous election. However,
PPP adopted a defensive position and raised the slogan against President Ishaq, and made an
alliance known as Peoples Democratic Alliance (PDA). After all these political
developments elections were held on 24th
October 1990 (Nohlen et al, 2001).
Table No.14
National Assembly Election Results
Political Parties Votes% National Assembly seats
IJI 23.74% 08
PDA 22.51% 05
ANP 15% 06
JUI-F 20.57% 04
Independent 16.46% 03
PAT 0.73% 00
QIP 0.62% 00
PKMAP 0.15% 00
JUP(N) 0.11% 00
HF 00 00
PMKP 00 00
NDP 00 00
PDP 00 00
Total 100 26
40
Source: Hamid Khan, Constitutional and Political History of Pakistan (Karachi: Oxford University Press,
2009), p.409.
Table-14 shows the national assembly seats results in 1990 elections in NWFP. In
national assembly seats, IJI secured eight (8) seats and 23.7% of total polled votes, ANP got
the second position bagged six (6) seats and 15% of total polled votes, followed by PDA
with five (5) seats and 22.5% votes, JUI-F won four (4) seats and a support of 20.5% votes
and lastly independent candidates scored three (3) seats and 16.4% of total polled votes in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 1990 elections IJI popularity decreased and it secured the support
of 23% voters that was 27% in the previous election. Nawaz Sharif became the Prime
Minister of Pakistan and leader of the House.
Table No.15
Provincial Assembly Election Results
Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Assembly seats
Islami Jamhuri Itehad (IJI) 32
People Democratic Allaince (PDA) 06
Awami National Party (ANP) 22
Jamait Ulema I Islam (JUI-f) 02
Independent 16
Total 78
Source: Hamid Khan, Constitutional and Political History of Pakistan (Karachi: Oxford University Press,
2009), p. 409.
Table-15 presents breakup of the provincial assembly election results, in which IJI
won thirty-two (32) seats followed by ANP Pakhtun nationalist political party with twenty-
one (21) seats. PDA secured six (6) seats and JUI-F only two (2) seats in the provincial
assembly. There were sixteen (16) independent candidates also elected in provincial
assembly. Consequently, once again IJI and ANP formed a coalition government in
province and Mir Afzal Khan of Mardan became the Chief Minister. In this election, we can
see the role of party identification model in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, other
determinants like personal influence of candidate, tribal affiliation and kinship also found in
various constituencies.
41
2.4.6 The 1993 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The IJI government under the premiership of Nawaz Sharif was remained only for two and
half years. The differences between Prime Minister and President started on the question of
distribution of power. PM Nawaz wanted to amend the constitution and undo the
discretionary power of the president and the power of the appointment of chief of the armed
forces. However, President Ishaq was not ready to amend the constitution and transfer
presidential powers to Prime Mistier.
On 17th
April 1993, Nawaz Sharif in a radio speech openly criticized President
Ishaq. In a reaction President Ishaq dismissed Nawaz Sharif government on 18th
April 1993
and dissolved the national assembly. Gohar Ayub speaker of the national assembly
challenged this act of President in Lahore High Court (LHC). Lahore High Court declared it
valid while Supreme Court of Pakistan decision was against Lahore High Court (Rizvi,
1993:19). After the Supreme Court decision, Nawaz government was restored but President
Ishaq again dismissed the Nawaz government and appointed caretaker government and
Moeen Quraishi became caretaker Prime Minister. The drop scene of this tussle was that
Ishaq also relinquished the office of President (Ziring, 2010:542). Caretaker PM Moeen
Qureshi announced 6th
October 1993 for fresh elections. After the end of President Ishaq
era, Chairman Senate Waseem Sajjad was stepped as acting President. Waseem Sajjad
endorsed that the new round of elections scheduled on 6th
October 1993. After the
announcement of election date, political parties started election campaign in all provinces.
Pakistan Muslim League (N) and Pakistan Peoples Party were two rival competitors in
election. The leadership of both political parties started mudslinging against each other in
election campaign. In the election campaign, political parties presented their manifestos
before the voters (Zafar and Husain, 1994:41-43). In NWFP the prominent political parties
were PPP, PML, ANP and religious political parties (JUI-F, JI and JUI-S). Elections were
42
conducted peacefully under the caretaker setup. Pakistan Peoples Party got majority seats
and Benazir Bhutto became second time the Prime Minister of Pakistan (Khan, 2009:440).
Table No.16
National Assembly Election Results
Political Parties Vote% Khyber Pakhtunkhwa national
assembly seats
Pakistan Muslim League-(N) 26 10
Pakistan Peoples Party 15 05
Awami National Party 15 01
Pakistan Islamic Front (PIF) 12 --
Independent 11 02
Islami Jamhori Mohaz (IJM) 11 02
PML-Junejo 05 --
Pakhtunkhwa Qaumi Party (PKQP) 02 01
PDA 02 01
Mutehda Deeni Mahaz (MDN) 01 --
Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party 0.13 --
Hazara Front 0.03 --
Haq Parast Group 0.01 --
Total 100 33
Source: Mohammad Waseem, (1994). The 1993 Elections in Pakistan, Vanguard Books Pvt. Ltd: Islamabad,
p.154
In frontier PML-N owned ten (10) seats and 26% polled votes, PPP secured five (5)
seats and 15% polled votes, Awami National Party bagged one (1) seat and 15% votes.
Pakistan Islamic Front (PIF) secured one (1) seat and 12% votes; two independent
candidates passed with 11% polled votes. However, Islami-Jamhori-Itihad secured two seats
and 11% polled votes. Pakhtunkhwa Mili Awami Party and Pakistan Democratic Alliance
secured one seat each. The rest of political parties could not secure any seat of national
assembly from NWFP. The vote bank of PML-N reached to 26% in NWFP. However, PPP
and ANP got an equal percentage of votes. In 1993 general elections we can see a shift of
voters from one political party to another.
43
Table No.17
Provincial Assembly Election Results
Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly
Pakistan Peoples Party 22
Pakistan Muslim League –Nawaz 15
Pakistan Muslim League –Junijo 04
Awami National Party 21
PIF 04
IJM 01
MDM 01
Jamiat Mashaikh Pakistan (JMP) 01
Independent 11
Total 80 Source: Mohammad Waseem, The 1993 Elections in Pakistan, Vanguard Books Pvt. Ltd: Islamabd, 1994,
p.165
Table-17 presented the provincial assembly election results and political parties
positions. PPP secured twenty-two (22) seats followed by ANP with twenty-one (21) seats,
PML-N owned fifteen (15) seats and PML-J got four (4) seats in the provincial assembly.
PML-N and ANP alliance had a clear edge on PPP. Therefore, PML-N appeared ruling
party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pir Sabir Shah became Chief Minister of the province.
Pir Sabir Shah Government was overthrown by a questionable constitutional means and
Aftab Sherpao who belonged to PPP was appointed as Chief Minister of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa for the second time. Pakistan Peoples Party government did not complete its
five years tenure. The unconstitutional steps, corruption, extrajudicial killing and political
victimization forced President Leghari to dismiss the Benazir Bhutto government on
November 5th
, 1996 (Khan, 2009:441).
2.4.7 The 1997 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
President Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari appointed Miraj Khalid as the caretaker Prime
Minister of Pakistan. Miraj Khalid government announced fresh elections date that was
February 5th
, 1997. After the announcement of election date, PPP, PML (N) and other
political parties started election campaigns in all provinces. The main agenda of PPP and
PML-N was the politics of victimization (Khan, 2009:441). There was a new development
during election that both National and Provincial Assemblies‟ elections were held on the
44
same day, and the people of FATA were given the right to vote after the fifty years of
independence. In 1997 General Elections Khyber Pakhtunkhwa voters polled their votes to
different political parties, the national and provincial assemblies results are given in Table-
18 and Table-19.
Table No.18
National Assembly Election Results Political Parties Percentage of votes Number of seats
PML-N 27% 15
ANP 16% 10
Independent 34% 09
PPP 08% --
JUI-F 07% --
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 03% --
Pakistan Muslim League (J) 02% --
Pakistan Aman Party 01% --
Pakistan Peoples Pary Shaheed Bhutto 01% --
Jamiat Ulema e Islam (Sami ul Haq Group) 01% --
Awami Qiadat Party 0.14% --
Haq Parast Group 0.10% --
Tehreek Islam Pakistan 0.07% --
Pakistan Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party 0.06% --
National Peoples Party (Workers Group) 0.03% --
Total 100 34
Source: Gilani‟s index of Electoral Record (1970-2008) based on data provided election commission of
Pakistan. (www.gallup.com.pk)
In General Elections 1997, PML-N secured fifteen (15) national assembly seats and
27% of total polled votes, ANP won ten (10) seats and 16% votes. However, independent
candidates secured nine (9) seats and 34% votes. The rest of the political parties did not
secure a single seat of the national assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 1993 election,
PML-N got only 15% of the total polled vote that increased to 27% in 1997. However, the
position of PPP voters support reduced in 1997 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
45
Table No.19
Provincial Assembly Elections Results
Political Parties Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP)
Pakistan Muslim League (N) 31
Awami National Party 28
Pakistan Peoples Party 04
Independents 11
Other parties 03
Total 77 Source: 1997 General Electionss in Pakistan Report
Table-19 portrays a different picture of 1997 provincial assembly election from 1993
because the PML-N position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and particularly in Hazara Division
was stronger than PPP and other political parties, therefore, PML-N secured thirty-one (31)
seats in the provincial assembly. The PPP ratio went down and ANP secured twenty-eight
(28) seats which was a great achievement in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Independent candidates
owned eleven (11) seats and PPP only four (4) provincial assembly seats. In Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Awami National Party and PML-N joined hands and formed a coalition
government and Sardar Mahtab Abbasi became Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
After formation of federal and provincial governments, Nawaz Sharif had apprehension
regarding 58(2)b that was a hanging sword on parliament. Therefore, he amended the
constitution by passing the 13th
amendment on 4th
April 1997 with a massive mandate
(Khan, 2009:451). Accordingly, Nawaz Sharif became a powerful Prime Minister of
Pakistan. After some time, government‟s relationship with military and judiciary lead to
hostility. This confrontation caused the dismissal of Nawaz government. The immediate
cause of the dismissal of Nawaz government was Kargil crisis14
. In October 1999 the
situation was worsened, when Prime Minister Sharif attempted to remove the Chief of
14
Kargil Crisis: Kargil crisis started in the early months of 1999. Certain mountain peaks in the region of
Kargil, from where Pakistani forces were ejected by Indians some years ago, were occupied by Mujahideen
backed by Pakistan army. The Indian army was badly trapped but India successfully opened a propaganda
front at the international scene. Indian propaganda was so successful that even close friend China refused to
help Pakistan. Circumstances forced the civilian government to seek the solution through International
actors otherwise security of Pakistan was jeopardized. Nawaz Sharif rushed to the USA for help. Clinton the
then president conditioned the aid in the Kargil with the return of army and Mujahideen from Kargil.
Consequently, army and Mujahideen were withdrawn from the Kargil. Nawaz complained against the army
and army chief claimed that Nawaz government was responsible for this crisis. In this way, a rift between
the relations of the army and government started.
46
Army Staff General Pervez Musharraf and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The Kargil crisis
caused differences between army Chief Pervez Musharraf and government, consequently on
12th
October 1999, Gen. Musharraf imposed martial law and became „Chief Executive‟ and
dismissed Nawaz Sharif government (DAWN Report, July 7th
2018).
2.4.8 The 2002 General Electionss in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The October 1999, coup d'etat was the fourth direct army intervention in Pakistan. Chief of
Army Staff Gen. Pervez Musharraf as a military dictator took the reins of the government
and dismissed elected government of Nawaz Sharif. Gen. Musharraf promised to conduct
fresh elections as soon as possible, but elections postponed until October 2002. The Election
Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced fresh election on 10th
October 2002. During the
election campaign, Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) appeared a major
political party on the political scene of Pakistan. Another Pro-Musharraf alliance of six
small political parties called National Alliance (NA) also contest elections. On the other
hand, religious political parties also formed an alliance called Muthahida-Majlis-Amal
(MMA) (Ansari, 2003). MMA was a group of six religious parties of Pakistan i.e., JIP, JUI-
F, JUI-S JUP, Tehreek-e-Jafaria Pakistan, Jamiat-Ahle-Hadith (Khan, 2014). The elections
were held on 10th
October 2002. In Table-20 shows the 2002 election political parties
position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
47
Table-20
National Assembly Election Results
Political Parties Vote% NA Seats
Muttahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) 42 29
Independent 17 12
PML-Q 13 04
Pakistan Peoples Party 9 --
Awami National Party 8 --
Pakistan Muslim League-N 5 --
PPP-Sherpao 03 --
Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf 01 --
National Alliance (NA) 01 --
Pakistan Awami Tehreek 0.29 --
Pakistan Muslim Leaugue (Jinnah) 0.18 --
Qaumi Jamhoori Party 0.14 --
Pakistan Muslim League Z 0.11 --
Hazara Qaumi Mahaz 0.10 --
Pakistan Awami Party 0.08 --
Pakistan Pakhtoonkhawa Milli Awami Party 0.07 --
Pak Wattan Party 0.05 --
Pakistan Mazdoor Kissan Party 0.03 --
Muttahda Qaumi Movement 0.02 --
Total 100 47 Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by
Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013
In Malakand Division, MMA got seven (7) national assembly seats and one (1) seat
by PPP-Sherpao group, while in southern areas that consist on Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu
and Kohat division, MMA secured seven (11) seats while independent candidates won
twelve (12) seats. In the central region that consists of Peshawar and Mardan divisions,
MMA won twelve (12) seats and PPP-S one (1) seat of National assembly, however, in
Hazara division, PML-Q secured four (4) seats and MMA bagged three (3) seats of National
Assembly (ECP Report, 2002). In General Elections 2002, MMA 42%, independent
candidates 17%, PML-Q 13%, PPP 9%, ANP 8%, PML-N 5%, PPP-Sherpao 3%, PTI and
National Alliance 1% each and Pakistan Awami Tehreek 0.29% support of the total polled
vote in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of 9/11 attacks on twins‟ tower, United States and
NATO forces attacked on Afghanistan. People living on both sides of Durand line are
Pakhtuns; therefore, they have a sense of belongingness with each other. The US attack on
Afghanistan created a sense of anti-Americanism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. MMA a
48
religious political alliance took advantage of this situation and used slogans against the US
and its allies during the election campaign (Rauf and Ayaz, 2011: Ansari and Moten, 2003).
However, MMA‟s religious attachment attracted the majority of the voters in General
Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore, MMA bagged forty-seven (47) seats which
were the highest number of national assembly seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unlike the
previous General Elections in the General Elections 2002, MMA secured 42% votes, which
showed a huge shift in vote bank from PML-N, PPP and ANP. However, in the provincial
assembly MMA also performed better than any other political party in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
Table-21
Provincial Assembly Election Results
Political Parties General Women Minorities Total
MMA 53 13 02 68
PPP (S) 10 02 01 13
PPP-P 08 02 -- 10
ANP 08 02 -- 10
Independents 06 -- -- 06
PML(Q) 08 02 -- 10
PML (N) 04 01 -- 05
SQM 01 -- -- 01
PTI 01 -- -- 01
Total 99 22 03 124 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)
In General Elections 2002, Pakhtun nationalist party ANP failed to secure a single
seat in the National Assembly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The ANP seat adjustment policy
with PPP-P was also ineffective at lower level in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Taliban factor also
played a key role in the integration of religious political parties because majority of Taliban
were ethnically Pakhtuns (Waseem, 2006: 159). The ANP leadership showed no credibility
with its secular credentials than the pro-Taliban Pakhtun electoral candidates, who asked the
electorate to vote for the „Book‟15
in the election. After PPP and PML-N the MMA became
the third largest political party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Majority of MMA‟s candidates
15
„Book‟ was the election symbol of MMA in General elections 2002. People considered that symbol of book
as „Quran‟.
49
belonged to the middle class or lower middle class. Another important factor of MMA‟s
victory was that the candidates‟ were religious seminaries which had direct contact with
common people during prayer time and other religious activities. MMA candidates took
benefit from these platforms and expressed their views during election campaign against
other candidates easily.
In the provincial assembly of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, MMA secured the highest fifty-
three (53) seats, PPP eight (8) seats, PPP-S ten (10) seats, ANP eight (8) seats, PML-Q eight
(8) seats, independent six (6) seats, PML-N four (4) seats, PTI and SQM one (1) each seat.
As a result of 2002 election MMA formed government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while
PML-Q and other small political parties made government in the center.
2.4.9 The 2008 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
After the expiration of five years term of the assemblies, President Musharraf appointed an
interim government and Chairman Senate Muhammad Mian Soomro was appointed as a
Prime Minister. The Election Commission of Pakistan announced the schedule for the next
general elections on 8th
January 2008. But the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto on 27th
December 2007 worsened the law and order situation and resultantly elections were
postponed until 18th
February 2008. The election campaign started in the whole country.
Jamat-i-Islami, Pakistan-Tehrik-Insaf and Pakhtunkhwa Milli-Awami-Party boycotted the
election on the issue of judiciary.16
The main contesting political parties in 2008 election
were PPP-P, PML (N), PML (Q), MMA, MQM, ANP etc (Nelson, 2009). General Elections
2008 results were totally different from the previous election. In this election, voters used
the ballots against the previous government policies and program and rejected them.
Another significant issue was 3rd
November 2007, when Gen. Musharraf promulgated
16
President General Musharraf implemented Provisional Constitutional Order (PCO) on November 3, 2007
which was a state of emergency and suspends the Constitution of Pakistan. Under PCO all the High Court
and Supreme Court judges were directed to take oath. A seven-member bench led by Chief Justice Iftihar
Muhammad Chudaray issued a restraining order against PCO on the same day. As a result Chief Justice
Iftihar Muhammad Chaudary and other judges who did not take oath under PCO were removed from their
posts. Consequently, lawyer and political parties started movement to reinstall the judges. Jamaat-i-Islami,
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Paktunkhwa Milli Awami Party boycotted the election.
50
emergency against the judiciary and sacked the office of Chief Justice of Pakistan without
any valid reason. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the voters were not satisfied with the MMA and
PML-Q performance. Secondly, MMA government failed to handle terrorism in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. During election campaign, other political parties blamed the MMA policies
regarding terrorism.
Table No. 22
National Assembly Election Results
Political Parties Vote% National Assembly Seats
Independent 24 13
Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarian 17 09
Awami National Party 16 10
Pakistan Muslim League-Q 14 05
Muttahidda Majilis e Amal 12 04
Pakistan Muslim League –N 12 04
Pakistan Peoples Party (Sherpao) 4 01
Pakistan Awami Party 0.50 01
Pakistan citizen Movement 0.14 00
Mutahida Qaumi Movement 0.13 00
Pakistan Bachao Party 0.07 00
Awami Himayat Tehreek Pakistan 0.05 00
Pakistan Muhafiz Party 0.04 00
Pakistan Peoples Party (Shaheed
Bhutto)
0.01 00
Total 100 43
Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup
Election Studies Team, 2013
Table-22 presents the 2008 general elections results. In 2008 elections independent
candidates secured thirteen (13) seats and 24% of total polled votes, ANP secured ten (10)
seats and 16% votes, PPP-P won nine (9) seats and 17% votes, PML-Q secured five (5)
seats and 14% votes, MMA secured four (4) seats and 12 % votes, PML-N own four (4)
seats and 12% votes, PPP-Sherpao secured one (1) seats and 4% of votes and Pakistan
Awami Party secured one (1) seat and 0.50% of the national assembly seats of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The MMA and PML-Q failed to secure its previous position in 2008 election.
The voters were shifted from religious political parties to ethno-nationalist political parties
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
51
Table No. 23
Provincial Assembly Election Results
Political Parties KP Assembly
Awami National Party 48
Pakistan Peoples Party 30
MMA 14
Pakistan Muslim League-N 09
Pakistan Muslim League-Q 06
Pakistan Peoples Party-S 06
Jamiat Ulema Islam-S 01
Independents 10 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan Report 2008
In 2002 General Elections, MMA a group of six religious political parties won fifty-
three (53) seats but in 2008 general elections Awami National Party (ANP) and PPP got
majority seats forty-eight (48) and thirty (30) seats respectively in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
provincial assembly. There was a setback to MMA in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and it got only
fourteen (14) seats in provincial assembly. PML-N won nine (9) seats in Hazara division
and other parts of province while PPP-Sherpao and PML-Q succeeded six (6) seats each in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly. As a result of these elections, ANP and PPP jointly made
government and Amir Haider Khan Hoti became the Chief Minister of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (Daily Mashriq, 5th
November 2008).
2.4.10 The 2013 General Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The successful completion of PPP‟s five years term in center and ANP in the Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa led to commencement of next general elections on May 11, 2013. After the
announcement of election date, the political parties started campaign throughout the
country. During the elections, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) threatened the ANP
and other leftist political parties therefore; those political parties limited their campaign. In
General Elections 2013, ANP could not present their previous government performance in
front of the voters. Another very important development in the general elections 2013 was
the emergence of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Chairman of PTI
Imran Khan started the election campaign with the slogan of „Change‟. The voters of
52
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa supported PTI because of the personality of Imran Khan. As well as,
in general elections 2013 voters of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa found a new option besides of the
old political parties (ECP, 2013). Therefore, a large number of people voted for PTI
candidates. The details of the assembly seats are given the following Table-24 and Table-
25.
Table No.24
National Assembly Elections Results
Name of Political Party Vote% NA Seats
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 27 17
JUI-F/MMA 16 04
Pakistan Muslim League-N 15 06
Independent 13 7
Jamat-i-Islami 07 03
Awami National Party 07 01
PPP 07 01
Other political parties 05 02
JUI- Others 1 1
PML-Others 1 1
PML-Q 0.18 --
PPP-Others 0.02 --
Total 100 44 Source: Election Commission of Pakistan
The General Elections 2013 the results were completely different from the 2008
general elections. PTI emerged the third prominent political force in Pakistan and a popular
political party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2013, PTI secured seventeen
(17) seats and 27% of total polled votes, PML-N six (6) seats and 16% votes, MMA secured
four (4) seats and 16% votes, independent seven (7) seats and 13% votes, JI three (3) seats
and 7% votes, PPP and ANP one (1) seat each and 7% votes each, and other political parties
secured four (4) seats. However, PTI leadership used different strategies to attract the voters
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. During election campaign PTI candidates were blaming ANP and
PPP for corruption. The PTI contesting candidates highlight the corruption of ANP and PPP
candidates in their election speeches.
The results of both national and provincial assembly show that voting behaviour is
changed in 2013 elections. Secondly, PTI was a new political party therefore; voters want to
53
test its government. A large number of voters who voted for ANP and PPP in the previous
elections changed their political loyalties and support the PTI in general elections 2013. As
a result of that change in voting behaviour, PTI got twenty-seven percent (27%) polled vote
while ANP graph went down from sixteen (16%) to seven (7%) percent voters support
(ECP, 2013).
Table No. 25
Provincial Assembly Election Results
Political Party General Seats Women
Seats
Non-
Muslims
Total
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf 35 10 1 46
Pakistan Muslim League (N ) 13 03 1 17
Jamiat Ulma-e-Islam (F) 13 03 1 17
Qoumi Wattan Party 07 01 08
Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan 07 01 08
Awami National Party 04 01 05
Pakistan Peoples Party 03 01 04
Awami Jamhori Itihad 03 01 04
All Pakistan Muslim League 01 - 01
Independents 12 - 12 Source: http://www.electionpakistani.com/ge2013/pk/party-postion.html retrived on March 7, 2017.
In General Elections 2013, results show that PTI won forty-six (46) seats, PML-N
and JUI-F with seventeen (17) seats each, JI and QWP secured eight (8) seats each, while
independent candidates secured twelve (12) seats. ANP secured only five (5) seats, PPP and
AJI got four (4) seats each and one (1) seat won by All Pakistan Muslim League. ANP and
PPP that had majority seats in 2008 failed to retain its position in 2013 election in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of the 2013 election, PTI, JI, QWP and AJIP made a coalition
government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of 2013 election PTI completed its five
years tenure on May 2018.
Why Do we Study Electoral History
History is an important subject for the study of elections and voting behaviour. Therefore
researcher included a chapter which composed of pre-independence and post-independence
electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Electoral history provides us a perspective about
54
the electoral process that where we are and where are we going. It also makes available the
information about political parties, politicians and other stakeholders in the electoral
process. Electoral history also figure out the past mistakes and blunders. Hence the policy
makers, politicians, and political parties will not repeat those mistakes. Moreover, electoral
history linked the electoral process with the complexities of culture and society. On the
basis of all these pros and cons, we can say that electoral history is a very important
subject.
Summary
The political and electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is rich and full of developments.
However, the first political and non-violent movement that called Khudai Khidmatgar
started from this province. Khudai Khidmatgar movement politically provoked the people
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa against the British raj. On the other hand, Khudai Khidmatgar was
a popular socio-political organization and participated in each election before partition.
Along with that, Muslim League and JUI also had a large support in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
before the independence.
The post-independence elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can be classified into
these categories. Firstly, since General Elections 1970, in each election different political
parties came into power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is very common that once political
parties win an election in the next election it is not possible to retain its position. Second
important characteristic of the electoral politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the increasing
number of independent candidates. In each election, a large number of independent
candidates contest election and many candidates won seats as well as large number of voters
support. Independent candidates contest election to use personal influence in the
constituency. Thirdly, during elections, the pre-poll alliance and seat adjustment of political
parties are common in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Lastly, the elections results depict a frequent
55
change in voting behaviour of voters in each election. Therefore, this changing behaviour of
the voters directly affects the election results in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
It is assumed that, the voters of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are more independent than the
voters of other provinces of Pakistan. The main reason of their independent behaviour is
politically weak feudal class (Khans or Landlords). The Chaudarys in Punjab, Sardars is
Baluchistan and Wadiras is Sindh have strong political control on the peasants and other
lower classes of society. During elections feudal class give directives to their subordinates
about political parties and candidates. But in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the voters are almost
independent from the directives of feudal class in elections. We can see that in 2002
General Elections a group of religious political parties MMA (a large number of MMA
candidates belonged to lower or middle class) got majority votes, while in 2008 election
ANP an ethnic nationalist political party secured majority votes and in 2013 General
Elections PTI a new centralist party won with majority votes.
The dominant factors of voting preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are party
affiliation, issues, religion, candidate‟s personality and social networks. All these
determinants are constantly playing a key role in shaping voting behaviour in different
elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
56
CHAPTER – 3
COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THREE GENERAL
ELECTIONS (2002, 2008, 2013)
3.1 INTRODUCTION
The electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa shows ups and downs of many political
parties in different elections. Since 1932 to 2013 elections different religious, ethnic and
nationalist political parties played their role in the political development and electoral
politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Religious political parties are using religion as a tool to
attract the voters in elections. Whereas, ethnic political parties presented ethnic issues in
election campaign, while nationalist political parties are focusing on strong federation and
national integration. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa all these political parties have their vote bank
and contest election constantly but their position is different (casted vote in favour of a
political party) in each election. This fluctuation in the political parties vote bank is because
of the presence of significant ratio of floating voters and party affiliated voters in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. This part of the study measure the ratio of partisan and floating voters by the
comparison of political parties contesting candidates votes in three elections (2002, 2008
and 2013) in the selected constituencies.
Dobson and Angelo (1975) argue that those voters who did not cast vote for the
same political party in two consecutive elections are called floating voters. Floating voters
are permanently not associated with a single political party, but they are changing their
loyalties in subsequent election. On the other hand partisans are sticking around to a
political party. Lindberg argue that, voting behaviour of floating voters is affected by
different social, political and economic factors (Lindberg, 2010). Those factors including
Qawm (tribe), Khel (clan) social status, personality of candidate, religion and political party
are determining the floating voter‟s electoral behaviour. The results of three recent general
elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa show that there is a potential ratio
57
of floating voters and partisans that are playing a decisive role in election results. The
question arises that “What is the ratio of partisans and floating voters in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa? How partisans and floating voters affect the election results?
During military regime of General Zia Ul Haq, political parties were banned and the
non-party elections were conducted in Pakistan in 1985. General Zia wanted to protect his
dictatorial regime to hinder the political parties, particularly Pakistan Peoples Party (Yaseen
et al, 2016). As a result of non-party elections, democratization process disrupted in
Pakistan and a large number of party voters changed their party loyalties and voted for
independent candidates. In 1985 non-party election, voters were encouraged to change their
political parties. On the other hand, non-party election encouraged independent candidates
to contest election. After Zia regime, the ratio of independent candidates increased in
different constituencies of Pakistan in general and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particularly. In a
multi-party political system all political parties felt uncertainty about their position to attain
electoral targets in elections. To make safe the future, political parties seeking electoral
alliances or seat adjustment between two or more political parties in different constituencies
before the election. However, some political parties give their tickets to those candidates
who are economically sound and have personal influence in the constituency to easily win
the election.
In General Elections 2002, six religious political parties joined hands in the shape of
Mutahidda-Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) to contest the election, while in General Elections 2008,
Awmai National Party (ANP) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) made an alliance and seat
adjustment on different constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2013
again ANP and JUI joined hands to compete PTI.
In the first portion of the chapter, an attempt is made to compare the three recent
elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) results of the randomly six selected constituencies of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The comparison of the three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) polled
58
votes to a party candidate can trace floating voters and party-loyal voters in different
constituencies. In this chapter, only those constituencies are discussing from where data was
collected that consist on six districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. From Southern region, NA-
27 Lakki Marwat and NA-15 Karak districts and NA-8 Charsadda and NA-9 Mardan
selected from Central region. NA-32 Chitral and NA-34 Lower Dir were selected from
Northern geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province consists of twenty six districts and thirty-five
national assembly constituencies17
. These constituencies can be divided into three large
geographical regions, North, Centre and South. In the first part of this chapter the Southern
part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is discussed, followed by Centre and lastly the Northern
constituencies. The comparison of the voters‟ support in each election to party candidate
with other election shows a variation. That variation of voters from one political party
candidate to other party provides a clear picture of floating voters and party loyal voters in
each election.
3.2 SOUTHERN GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE
The Southern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa consists on Kohat, Karak, Lakki Marwat,
Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu and Tank districts. These districts are comparatively under-
developed than the Northern and Central regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The economic
position of this region and voting behaviour of the voters in southern region is different
from other parts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Both National Assembly seats NA-15 Karak and NA-27 Lakki Marwat are
geographically contiguous with each other but the electoral behaviour in both districts is
different from each other. In Karak, the dominant factor of voting choice is the personal
17
In General election 2018 Election Commission of Pakistan delimitation of some constituencies and the
number of national assembly constituencies increased from thirty-five to thirty-nine general seats. In
previous elections NA-1 was Peshawar, now after the delimitation of constituencies the NA seats started
from the north that is NA-1 Chitral.
59
influence of candidate and party identification model, while in Lakki Marwat religion is
more dominant factor but party identification model is also working.
The map shows all the National Assembly constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Through this map, we can easily identify the location of different constituencies of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (See Figure-1).
Figure-1
National Assembly Constituencies18
Source: www.alhasan.com
18
NA-32 Chitral, NA-34 Lower Dir, NA-8 Charsadda, NA-9 Mardan, NA-15 Karak, NA-27 Lakki Marwat
60
Firgure-2
Source: Bureau of Statistics, Planning and Development Department, Government of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
61
3.2.1 District Lakki Marwat (NA-27)
Lakki Marwat located in the Southern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Lakki Marwat
converted into district on 1st July 1992 (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2017). It is situated between
District Dera Ismail Khan and District Bannu. District Karak is located in the North and
Tank in South, while Mianwali District (Punjab) lies to the East of Lakki Marwat while in
the west it linked with Tribal belt of F.R Lakki. The total area of district Lakki Marwat is
3164 sq.km. Majority of the people belong to the Pakhtun tribe Marwat and a small number
of Bhittani tribe is also living here. District Lakki Marwat consists of Tehsil Lakki and
Naurang and thirty-two (32) union councils. District Lakki Marwat represented by national
assembly constituency NA-27 and three provincial assembly constituencies PK-74, PK-75
and PK-76. The table below shows the fluctuation of voters from one political party to
another one in three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in NA-27 from it we can identify the
floating voters (Bureau of Statistics, 2015).
Table No.26
NA- 27 Lakki Marwat Elections Results
General elections 2002
Political Party Obtained votes
1 MMA 65938
2 PML-Q 41171
General Elections 2008
1 PML-Q 61303
2 MMA 52315
3 ANP 1597
4 10 Independent candidates 8332
General Elections 2013
1 JUI 84531
2 PML-N 56075
3 PTI 18168
4 ANP 2909
5 PKMAP 121
6 PML-Q 114
7 JUP-Niazi 45
8 13 Independents 7152
Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports
Table-26 presents the NA-27 three election results. In General Elections 2002, two
candidates contested in the electoral race; one was from Mutahiddah Majlis-e-Amal‟s
(MMA) candidate Maulana Amanullah Khan and the other from Pakistan Muslim League-
Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) Anwar Saifullah Khan. After the polling, MMA‟s candidate won
62
the election with 24767 votes that were 60.4% of total votes, while the runner-up PML-Q
candidate Anwar Saifullah Khan secured only 37.7% votes. During the election campaign,
the MMA candidate used the slogan of Anti-Americanism and mobilized Madrassas
(Religious schools) students to win the seat on NA-27 Lakki Marwat (Naqvi, 2002). Unlike
other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in Lakki Marwat all the provincial assembly seats won
by PML-N candidates with a majority vote (General Elections 2002 Report Vol, II, 2002).
In General Elections 2008, the political scenario was completely different from the
2002 and therefore, MMA failed to retain its previous position in NA-27 Lakki Marwat.
PML-Q candidate Humayun Saifullah Khan with 8988 lead won the NA-27 Lakki Marwat
seat while the runner-up was MMA candidate. Awami National Party (ANP) and ten
independent candidates also participated in General Elections 2008 from Lakki Marwat
(General Elections 2008 Report Vol. II). In the provincial assembly seats, again voters‟
preferences were different from other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections
2008, the provincial assembly seats won by independent candidates, which show a
significant ratio of floating voters in District Lakki Marwat. According to General Elections
2013 voters list of Lakki Marwat, the total number of registered voters was 330,274, out of
which total male voters are 186,853 and female voters are 143,421 (FAFEN, 2015).
In General Elections 2013, the voting behaviour was again different from the other
parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; because Jamiat-Ulema-i-Islam-F group (JUI-F) leader
Maulana Fazlur Rahman won the NA-27 seat with 28456 lead followed by PML-N
candidate Salim Saifullah Khan (ECP, 2013). However, all the provincial assembly seats
PK-74, PK-75 and PK-76 were won by JUI-F candidates. The analysis of the results of three
General Electionss (2002, 2008 and 2013) in district Lakki Marwat shows two dominant
factors that played a key role in changing the voting behaviour of voters i.e. personality of
the candidate and religion. The influence of the Saifullah family shows their personality
vote in Lakki Marwat. This family has strong socio-economic hold in Lakki Marwat. The
63
second factor is the growing vote bank of religious political parties, particularly JUI-F. The
JUI-F influence in the district shows the inclination of the voters to on the basis of
religion.19
The results of three general elections show an improvement in the vote bank of
religious political parties in Lakki Marwat. It is assumed that both factors influenced the
voters‟ decisions in election campaign. Therefore, the election results of provincial
assembly constituencies were different from other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Newsweek, 2013; ECP, 2013). This change of political parties candidates in different
elections show that there is a potential ratio of floating voters and party affiliated voters.
3.2.2 District Karak (NA-15)
District Karak is situated in the south of district Kohat and the north side of Bannu and
Lakki Marwat on the main Indus Highway. It acquired the position of a district during
Governor Fazali Haq provincial government in 1982. District Karak is the single district in
Pakistan which is inhabited by only one tribe of Pakhtuns, the Khattaks. The total area of
district Karak is 3372 sq. km. According to 1998 census, the population of district Karak
was 734,765 persons. In General Elections 2013, the total number of registered voters are
350,236, while 195,512 are male voters and 154,724 are female voters. District Karak is
composed of Karak, Banda Daud Shah and Takh-e-Nusrati Tehsils and twenty-three (23)
union councils and one municipal committee (FAFEN, 2015). Karak is represented by
national assembly seat NA-15 and two provincial assembly seats PK-40 and PK-41. District
Karak is an energy rich district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There are oil, gas and coal
reserves. According to a non-governmental organization SMEDA report, literacy rate in
Karak is on a third position after Wah and Islamabad (SMEDA, 2017). The residents of
district Karak are politically and socially more active and have many political and social
personalities. The political personalities are playing prominent role in the national and
provincial politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
19
After delimitation of constituencies NA-27 changed into NA-34 Lakki Marwat. In 2018 election NA-34 seat
won by MMA and provincial assembly two seats won by MMA and one seat by PTI candidate.
64
Table No.27
NA-15 Karak Elections Results
General elections 2002
Political Party Obtained votes
1 MMA 31325
2 PPPP 17712
3 PML-N 13381
4 PTI 9972
5 ANP 9110
6 4 Independent candidates 10714
5 Other political parties 3430
General Elections 2008
1 MMA 28665
2 PML-N 22053
3 PML 21497
4 Independent 21002
5 ANP 14808
6 Others 2563
General Elections 2013
1 PTI 51278
2 PML-N 29290
3 MDM 29088
4 JUI-F 13215
5 ANP 7330
6 Other political parties 8486
7 10 independent candidates 19706
Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports
The voting behaviour in General Elections 2002 in district Karak was similar to
other parts Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 2001 United States and NATO forces attacked on
Afghanistan. MMA took advantage and used religion as a tool to secure majority votes in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, majority of the voters supported the MMA in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa at national and provincial constituencies in 2002 General Elections. MMA
won the NA-15 Karak seat with a lead of 31325 votes while the runner up was PPPP
contesting candidate. PML-N secured the third position and PTI chairman Imran Khan, who
was for the first time contested election from this seat got 9972 votes. However, four (4)
independent candidates obtained 10714 votes. On the other hand, in provincial assembly
seat PK-40 Karak candidate Mian Nisar Gul was the first PTI candidate who won a seat in
General Elections 2002. While the PK-41 seat won by MMA candidate in Karak in 2002
General Elections (Election Report 2002 Volume-II, 2002). In General Elections 2008, NA-
15 Karak seat again won by MMA candidate with a lead of 6612 votes and the runner-up
was PML-N candidate. The third position was secured by PML-Q and the fourth position
65
hold by an independent candidate Mian Nisar Gul. Mian Nisar Gul contested 2008 election
as independent candidate and won PK-40 seat while PK-41 seat won by MMA candidate
Malik Qasim Khan Khattak.
In 2013 general elections voters list revised, total number of registered voters in
district Karak is 315087, out of total 177493 are male voters and 137594 are female voters
(General Elections 2013 Report II). The results of 2013 General Elections at national
assembly level were similar to other constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 2013
election, PTI became a leading political party and won the majority votes in NA-15 Karak,
followed by PML-N candidate. Moreover, ten (10) independent candidates also took part in
election and secured 19706 votes collectively. The provincial assembly seat PK-40 won by
PTI candidate and PK-41 won by an independent candidate Malik Qasim Khan Khattak
who was MMA candidate in previous election (Election Report 2013 Volume-II)20
. After
the comparison of the results of three recent elections in Karak, it seems that there is a
potential ratio of floating voters and party affiliated voters. On the other hand a large
number of independent candidates contesting elections and they secured majority votes in
different elections that are already discussed. The second thing is the role of personality of
contesting candidate and his economic status. However, the scarcity of water is a critical
problem in some of union councils in Karak. It is observed that contesting candidates‟
campaign in those union councils is focused on water problem. Moreover, those candidates
who are economically strong they install water pumps and tube-wells to attract the voters
support. Political parties manifestoes and program also improving party membership in
district Karak.
3.3 CENTRAL GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE
The central geographical zone of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa consists of Peshawar and Mardan
division. These two divisions comprise of Peshawar, Charsadda, Mardan, Nowshera and
20
NA-15 which is now NA-34 own by PTI candidate Shahid Ahmad
66
Swabi districts. Peshawar is the administrative capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The central
districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa hold the majority of the total population of province. Two
constituencies NA-8 Charsadda-II and NA-9 Mardan-I randomly selected for data
collection.
3.3.1 District Mardan (NA-9)
Mardan city is the second most populous city in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is the Headquarter
of district Mardan. District Mardan has a very rich cultural heritage and history. The district
contains the famous archaeological sites of Takht Bahi, Jamal Ghari and Shahbaz Garha.
The total area of district Mardan is 1,632 sq.km (630 sq mi) and total population is
2,369,000 in 2014 (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 2017). District Mardan consist of Tehsil
Mardan and Takht Bahi and seventy-four (74) union councils, two (2) Municipal
Committees and a cantonment area. District Mardan represented by NA-9, NA-10 and NA-
11 and eight provincial assembly seats PK-23, PK- 24, PK-25, PK-26, PK-27, PK-28, PK-
29 and PK-30. The total registered voters in District Mardan are 1,081,165. However,
630,564 are male voters and 450,601 are female voters (FAFEN, 2015).
Table No.28
NA-9 Mardan-I Elections Results
General elections 2002
Political Party Obtained votes
1 MMA 54479
2 Independent 15376
3 PPPP 5077
4 PTI 1049
5 Independent candidates 1687
General Elections 2008
1 ANP 30770
2 JUI-S 24621
3 7 Independent Candidates 1663
General Elections 2013
1 ANP 44769
2 PTI 42068
3 PML-N 32090
4 JUI-F 14427
5 PPPP 7002
6 JI 4578
7 Other political parties 2158
8 2 independents 1298
Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports
67
Table-28 shows that in General Elections 2002 in NA-9 Mardan-I, the MMA
candidate won with a massive lead of 39,103 votes. However, the runner-up was an
independent candidate Abas Sarfaraz Khan who belongs to the nobility of Mardan. The
third position was secured by PPPP candidate followed by PTI candidate. In General
Elections 2002, ANP did not contest election from NA-9. The turnout of voters in NA-9
was 35.9% in 2002 elections (General Elections 2002 Report Volume-II). However, in 2002
elections, MMA won PK-23, PK-24 and PK-25 seats in Mardan. In NA-9 and in provincial
assembly, the MMA emerged a dominant political force.
In General Elections 2008 in NA-9 Mardan, Awami National Party candidate
Nawabzada Khawaja Muhammad Khan Hoti, alias Toti Khan won with a lead of 6149 votes
that were lesser than general elections 2002 MMA candidate lead. The runner-up was the
JUI-S candidate who got 24,621 votes. Unlike General Elections 2002, in 2008 seven (7)
independent candidates contest election from NA-9 Mardan-I, but they secured very small
number of votes. In provincial assembly constituencies, all the three seats of PK-23, PK-24
and PK-25 were won by ANP candidates. The voters‟ preferences were influenced by
ethnicity and party attachment in Mardan. In 2008 general elections turnout was 31.2% in
NA-9 Mardan (General Elections 2008 Report Volume-II).
In General Elections 2013, ex-Chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Amir Haider
Khan Hoti with a lead of 2701 votes won NA-9 Mardan-I seat. The runner-up was PTI
candidate who secured 42,068 votes. During ANP government, Amir Haider Khan Hoti was
the Chief Minster and did a lot of developmental projects (Infrastructure, Health, Education
sector) in district Mardan but in 2013 election he faced very tough competition from the PTI
candidate and won with a lead of 2000 votes only. Moreover, in NA-9 Mardan-I,
interestingly PML-N candidate was on the third position followed by JUI-F, PPP, JI and
other political parties‟ candidates respectively. Two independent candidates also contested
election from NA-9 Mardan. While in provincial assembly PK-23 seat won by ANP
68
candidate and PK-24 and PK-25 seats won by PTI candidates. The turnout in General
Elections 2013 was 50.45%, which is more than the previous two general elections (General
Elections 2013 Report Volume-II).
The comparison of the three general elections results of NA-9 Mardan-I presented a
different picture of the voters‟ movement from one political party to another one. In General
Elections 2002, MMA secured majority votes but in 2008 general elections, MMA did not
retain its previous position and replaced by the nationalist political party ANP21
. In 2013
general elections, ANP won the NA-9 seat with a very small lead and PTI candidate secured
the second position. The voting behaviour in NA-9 also influenced by some personalities
but political parties also has a constant vote bank. In NA-9 Mardan floating voters have
lesser role. Maybe this is because of the socio-politico and economic development in district
Mardan. It is believed that Amir Haider Khan Hoti is main political character who motivates
the voters and strengthened Awami National Party membership in Mardan.
3.3.2 District Charsadda (NA-8)
District Charsadda is a politically rich and fertile. Pushklavati (means Lotus flowers) was
the old name of District Charsadda. Charsadda shares borders with District Mardan, District
Nowshehra and Malakand Agency. In the North West is Mohmand Agency22
and western
border shares with Peshawar (Shah, 2013). Its total area is 996 sq/kms (384.6 sq. miles).
Total cultivable land in district Charsadda is 210,235 acres that is 86% of total irrigated land
of Charsadda. The population of district Charsadda according to 1998 census report was 1.7
million. However, 18.9% of the total population belongs to the cities and remaining 81.1%
residents are living in rural areas. Presently literacy rate is 43.09% in district Charsadda.
District Charsadda is sub-divided into Tehsil Tangi, Tehsil Charsadda and Tehsil Shabqadar
and forty-nine Union Councils. District Charsadda is represented by two constituencies
(NA-7 and NA-8) for the National Assembly and six provincial Assembly constituencies
21
NA-9 which is now NA-21 won by ANP candidate Amir Haider Khan Hoti in 2018 elections 22
Now District Mohmand
69
(PK-17, PK-18, PK-19, PK-20, PK-21 and PK-22). The total registered voters in District
Charsadda are 760,273; however, 437,106 are male voters and 323,167 are female voters
(ECP, 2013).
Table No.29
NA-8 Charsadda-II Elections Results
General Elections 2002
Political Party Obtained votes
1 PPP-S 42326
2 ANP 18346
3 Independent 1105
4 PMKP 962
General Elections 2008
1 PPP-S 30626
2 ANP 29951
3 MMA 12239
4 PML-N 3940
5 Independent 1306
General Elections 2013
1 QWP 37044
2 JUI 33836
3 PTI 30089
4 ANP 15953
5 JI 11034
6 PPPP 3848
7 Other political parties 5132
8 3 independent candidates 2205
Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports
Interestingly, in Table-29 we can see that in NA-8 Charsadda, Aftab Ahmad Khan
Sherpao who is brother of late Hayat Muhammad Khan Sherpao won election from different
political platforms. Aftab Sherpao is considered as a political strategist in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. He was one of the most prominent political leaders of PPP but in 2002
election he left PPP and established his own political party known as Pakistan Peoples
Party-Sherpao group (PPP-S). In 2013 elections, he again renamed his political party as
Qawmi Watan Party (QWP). Aftab Sherpao is winning NA-8 seat in 2002, 2008 and 2013
General Elections consecutively. But a very interesting aspect found in three general
elections, that the runner-up of Aftab Sherpao in each election is of different political party
70
candidates. In General Elections 2002, unlike other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the
voters of NA-8 Charsadda-II elected Aftab Sherpao. He won with a lead of 23980 votes that
was a huge mandate. The runner-up was ANP candidate and third position was secured by
an independent candidate in 2002 elections. The fourth candidate was PMKP candidate who
got only 962 votes. The National Assembly constituency NA-8 covers three provincial
assembly seats PK-20, PK-21 and PK-22. Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao and his son Sikandar
Hayat Khan also elected form PK-20 and PK-21 respectively. On the other hand, MMA
candidate Maulana Musamir Shah was elected from PK-22 (General Elections 2002 Report,
Vol. II).
In 2008 General Elections, once again Aftab Sherpao won but the lead reduced to
23862 to 675 votes. It seems that the voters of PPP-S were split into other political parties
(ANP, JUI-S and PPP). However, in 2008 election ANP candidate remained on the second
position like the previous election. MMA secured third position in 2008 General Elections
in NA-8 Charsadda-II. Moreover, in 2008 general elections all the provincial assembly seats
(PK-20, PK-21 and PK-22) won by the PPP-Sherpao candidates (General Elections 2008
Report, Vol. II).
Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao renamed his political party from PPP-S to Qawmi
Watan Party (QWP) on October 17, 2012.23
In General Elections 2013, again Aftab Sherpao
won the NA-8 Charsadda-II seat with a lead 3028 votes. Nonetheless, the second position
secured by JUI-F candidate while third and fourth positions acquired by PTI and ANP
candidates respectively. In 2013 elections, ANP was replaced by JUI-F and PTI and at the
first time it secured that much votes in the history of NA-8 Charsadda-II. Apart from that in
General Elections 2013, two candidates were elected from QWP on PK-20 and PK-21 and
23
The earlier name of Qawmi Watan Party was Pakistan Peoples Party-Sherpao group. The name of the party
was changed on 17th
October, 2012. Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao was appointed the head of the party. It is
also called Pakhtun neo-nationalist political party. During 2013 elections, QWP won one MNA seat and ten
MPAs seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
71
Muhammad Arif from PTI won PK-22 provincial seat. (General Elections 2013 Report Vol,
II).
The results of three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) demonstrated that in NA-8, like
other political and social determinants personality of candidate also have a dominant factor
to influence voters‟ preferences. The estimation (in Table-4) of different elections results
provide a reflection in which Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao moving from one political party
to another one but his vote bank remain comparatively higher than other candidates. It
indicates the personal influence of Sherpao that is pulling the voters of NA-8 Charsadda-II.
The second interesting thing in NA-8 is the increasing vote bank of religious political
parties.
In NA-8 Charsadda-II, the voting behaviour is influenced by four determinants i.e.,
the personality of the candidate, religion, performance and party affiliation. Another
important aspect is the shift of floating voters who are sometimes joining one political party
and in the next elections turn to other political party. Regardless of that, in 2002 election
the voter turnout was 29.6% improved 32.3% in 2008 elections. However, in General
Elections 2013, the turnout again improved to 43.9%. In General Elections 2002, Aftab
Sherpao bagged 65.7% of the total polled votes of NA-8 Charsadda-II; however in 2008 got
38.3% of total polled votes. The vote bank of Aftab Sherpao (QWP) reduced to 25.8% in
2013 elections. Apart from that ANP gained 28.5% of the total polled votes in 2002 elections.
However, ANP share ascended to 37.5% in 2008. Whereas, in 2013 elections, ANP voters
support further reduced to 11.1% of the total polled votes in NA-8. Nevertheless, in NA-8
Charsadda-II, MMA/JUI candidate did not contest the 2002 polls, but in 2008 MMA
secured 15.3% votes. In General Elections 2013, in NA-8 the vote bank of JUI grew up to
23.5% votes. The PTI also emerged as a strong competitor in NA-8 with a share of 20.9%
of the total polled votes (2013 Election of Pakistan Report II, 2013). The General Elections
2013 results make it hard to predict the future party trend in NA-8. The ruling QWP in NA-
72
8 was losing its previous position and JUI-F emerged a strong contender in 2013 elections.
Apart from that, PTI also got a significant share in the votes polled in General Elections
2013.24
ANP was a strong political party in NA-8 loses its hold and the voters may be
shifted to other political parties in 2013 elections.
3.4 NORTHERN GEOGRAPHICAL ZONE
The Northern geographical region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa consists of Malakand, Swat,
Upper and Lower Dir, Kohistan, Chitral and Shangla Districts. Because of the same
geographical landscape Hazar division is also added in northern geographical regions. In
this region, District Chitral and Lower Dir are randomly selected for data collection.
3.4.1 District Chitral (NA-32)
Chitral is bordered in the east with Gilgit-Baltistan, Swat valley located in the south-east,
China and the Wakhan corridor of Afghanistan linked on the north and north-east, while in
the west Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan are located. In the south of Chitral is
situated the Upper Dir district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. District Chitral is divided
into thirty-five small valleys. Kalash valleys, Garam Chashma, Shishi Koh, Mastuj, Laspur,
Yarkhun, Tor Khow and Mor Khow are most important and full of natural beauty (Baloch,
2016). Its total area is 14,850 Square Kilometres. According to 1998, the population of
Chitral was 318,689.
District Chitral consists of four tehsils, Drosh, Mastuj, Tor Khow and Mor Khow
and twenty-four Union Councils. Chitral was an independent princely state till 1947. When
Pakistan came into being, the state of Chitral was the first among the princely states to
declare accession to Pakistan. In the year 1969, Chitral was merged into the Malakand
division as a settled district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. District Chitral represented NA-32
national assembly and PK-89 and PK-90 provincial assembly seats (ECP, 2017).
24
NA-8 which is now NA-23 won by PTI candidate Malik Anwar Taj with majority votes
73
Table No. 30
NA-32 Chitral Elections Results
General elections 2002
Political Party Obtained votes
1 MMA 36130
2 PML-Q 23907
3 PPPP 20862
4 PTI 516
General Elections 2008
1 PML-Q 33278
2 Independent 31120
3 PPPP 18516
4 MMA 2759
5 Independent 695
General Elections 2013
1 APML 30115
2 PTI 24835
3 JI 21278
4 PPPP 20040
5 JUI-F 16004
6 ANP 6776
7 QWP 3960
8 PML-N 2478
9 Independent 941
Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports
In 2002 general elections, Abdul Akbar Khan Chitrali (in 2018 election again he
won the Chitral National Assembly seat) who is basically from Jamaat-i-Islami contested
election on MMA ticket and acquired 36130 votes. The runner-up was PML-Q candidate
and third position secured by PPPP candidate. The MMA candidate won with 12,223 lead.
In provincial assembly seats like other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, in Chitral, both seats
were won by MMA candidates. The anti-Americanism and religiosity were the main
determinants of voting behaviour (Khan, 2011).
After the announcement of 2008 election by Election Commission of Pakistan,
various political parties and independent candidates who wanted to contest election started
campaigns. Therefore, many candidates (party candidates and independent candidates) and
their supporters started canvassing by explaining their party manifesto and objectives to
gain public support in the election. In General Elections 2008, the registered voters in
Chitral were 197,022, which includes 107,804 male registered voters, and 89,218 female
registered voters. In 2008 five (5) candidates contest election from NA-32 (now NA-1)
74
Chitral. Out of five candidates three candidates contested on party tickets while other two
were independent candidates (General Elections 2008 Report Volume-II).
Nonetheless, the provincial assembly constituency PK-89 was composed of fourteen
union councils. Out of 115,531 registered voters 64,795 male registered voters and 50,736
female. In 2008 elections, seven (7) candidates contested for PK-89 Provincial Assembly
seat but only five (5) candidates contested on party ticked and two (2) were independent
candidates. However, in PK-90, that composed of ten (10) union councils, where, out of
81491 registered voters 43,009 were male and 38,482 female registered voters. Moreover,
in PK-90, four (4) candidates were contesting the 2008 elections. In spite to that, in 2008
elections, candidate of Pakistan Muslim league Qaid-e-Azam group (PML-Q) won the
National Assembly NA-32 seat with a lead of 2158 votes. Although, Pakistan people party
candidate Saleem Khan secured the provincial Assembly seat from PK-89 and PK-90 won
by PML-Q candidate. Jamaat-e-Islami, PTI, PKMAP and APDM boycotted general
elections 2008.
In district Chitral in 2008 election, Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarian (PPPP)
had been divided into two groups on the issue on the allocation of tickets. The district
organization of PPPP had given party ticket to Shahzada Ghulam Muhyuddin while some of
the party activists were against this decision. On the other hand, Jamaat-e-Islami boycotted
the election that provided an opportunity to PML-Q candidate to win the election. In
General Elections 2013, the number of registered voters rose to 206,910. Among total
registered voters, 120,530 were male voters and 86,380 female voters.
In 2013, eight (8) candidates were contesting on different political parties‟ tickets
and remaining two (2) candidates were independent. There was a nick to nick competition
of All Pakistan Muslim League (APML) candidate with PTI candidate. As a result, APML
candidate won with a lead of 5280 votes (FAFEN, 2015)25
. PTI candidate secured the
25
NA-32 which is now NA-1 Chitral won by MMA candidate Abdul Akbar Chitrali in 2018 election
75
second position and third one by JI candidate. However, in provincial assembly, there was
also very tough competition among different political parties. According to the official
announcement of results by Election Commission of Pakistan, Mr. Saleem Khan the
candidate of Pakistan People Party Parliamentarian (PPPP) remains successful for the PK-
89 (Chitral-I) securing 11,310 votes and Mr. Khalid Pervaiz the candidate of All Pakistan
Muslim League (APML) runner-up who scored 10,234 votes (General Elections 2013
Report. Vol. II). Even though, in Upper Chitral, PK-90 consists of ten (10) union councils
and the total number of registered voters were 88,865. There were nine (9) contesting
candidates from different political Parties and the remaining five (5) were independent. Mr.
Ghulam Muhammad, the APML candidate won by 10691 votes and PPPP candidate
remained second who secured 10,620 votes. On the other hand, Ghulam Muhammad who
contested from APML was a Sunni candidate and the one Shahzada who contested for NA
seat from APML was also Sunni. The only factor played a key role in the victory of Ghulam
Muhammad was that he belongs to Zondre Qawm and Ismailis sect. Therefore, the Zondre
Qawm supported him in election. Secondly, he is also very rich and can easily influence the
voter‟s behaviour, by spending a lot on gift distribution among the constituency people and
other financial support. Moreover, people voted for APML a political party of ex-president
Musharraf because of the construction of Lowari Tunnel (Mashriq, June 10th
2013).26
3.4.2 District Lower Dir (NA-34)
District Lower Dir is situated in the North-Western part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
and is spread over an area of 1583 Square Kilometres (Bureau of Statistics, 2015). Apart
from that small area in the South-West of district Lower Dir has rugged mountainous
landscape. District Lower Dir eastern border is linked with Swat and western border with
Afghanistan, North and North-West border with Upper Dir and Chitral and Southern border
26
Sectarian factor is an also an important determinant to influence voters preferences in District Chitral in
elections.
76
linked with Malakand and Bajaur Agency. In 1947, Dir state was ruled by Nawab Shah
Jehan Khan. It was merged in Pakistan in 1969 and later on declared a district in 1970. In
1996 the state of Dir was divided into two districts Upper Dir and Lower Dir. The Lower
Dir is administratively subdivided into Timergara and Samar Bagh Tehsils including thirty-
seven (37) union councils. The district is represented four provincial assembly members
(MPAs) and one in the national assembly. The national assembly seat allocated for lower
Dir is NA-34 (now divided into NA-6 and NA-7) and provincial assembly seats are PK-94,
PK-95, PK-96 and PK-97 (ECP, 2013). According to 2013 voters list, the total registered
voters in Lower Dir are 574,109. However, 338,497 are male voters and 235,612 are female
voters (FAFEN, 2017).
Table No.31
NA-34 Lower Dir Elections Results
General elections 2002
Political Party Obtained votes
1 MMA 53799
2 ANP 34078
3 PTI 1136
5 PML-Q 1123
6 Independent candidate 313
5 PML-N 224
General Elections 2008
1 PPPP 38068
2 ANP 24480
3 MMA 11449
4 PPP-S 8702
5 PML-N 3366
6 2 Independent Candidates 1386
General Elections 2013
1 JI 49475
2 PTI 45066
3 JUI 22552
4 ANP 8959
5 QWP 7206
6 PPPP 6275
7 Other political parties 6864
8 5 Independent candidates 2934
Source: 2002, 2008 and 2013 General Elections of Pakistan Reports
77
In General Elections 2002, there were two main contenders MMA and ANP in
Lower Dir and the winner candidate and the runner-up secured nearly 95% of the total
polled votes in NA-34. The MMA candidate won with a lead of 19,721 votes and the
runner-up was ANP candidate. Despite that, all the provincial assembly seats were also won
by MMA candidates. Regardless of that, in General Elections 2008, PPPP candidate won
with a lead of 13,588 votes and the runner-up was ANP candidate and the third position
secured by PTI candidate. Jamaat-i-Islami as a strong political party of the area boycotted
the elections that provided an opportunity to other political parties to secure more votes of
NA-34. However, the main contest was still between the first two candidates who
collectively received nearly 70% of the votes. Moreover, in 2008 elections, out of four
provincial assembly seats three (3) seats won by PPPP and one (1) by ANP in Lower Dir.
In General Elections 2013, JI candidate won the national assembly seat with a lead
of 4409 votes followed by PTI candidate and third position secured by JUI-S candidate. The
voters splitting up into different political parties forecast that the next election result may be
different from the 2013 (FAFEN, 2017)27
. The provincial assembly seats PK-94, PK-95 and
PK-96 won by the JI candidates and PK-97 won by the QWP candidate. According to the
Election Commission of Pakistan's results, the turnout in NA-34 was 28.3% in General
Elections 2002, which dropped down to 24.3% in 2008 general elections. However, in
General Elections 2013, turnout of NA-34 raised to 30.7% which was 6.4% greater than
2008 elections (ECP, 2017).
In General Elections 2002, there were two contesting candidates in the polls, one
was JI Amir Qazi Hussain Ahmed who contested under the banner of MMA and secured
fifty-eight percent (58%) votes. The leadership of JI believed that Qazi Hussain Ahmad can
easily win the NA-34 Lower Dir seat rather than their home town Nowshehra, because in
NA-34 JI had a huge vote bank. Even though, in 2002 elections, runner-up was Muhammad
27
NA-34 Lower Dir is divided into NA-6 and NA-7. In 2018 election, NA-6 and NA-7 National Assembly
seats won by PTI candidates in Lower Dir.
78
Ayub Khan of the ANP who managed to get 36.7% votes. Moreover, other major parties
such as PTI, PML and PML-N received comparatively nominal shares of the polled votes.
In General Elections 2008, MMA lost a huge vote bank because JI boycotted the election
and PPPP candidate won NA-34 and secured 42.2% votes while ANP's Ayub Khan was
runner-up with 27.1% votes and MMA managed to get only 12.7% of the total polled votes.
In General Elections 2013, the JI candidate won NA-34 seat with 32% of the total polled
votes. However, PTI, which had performed poorly in 2002 General Elections, also managed
to get 29% votes, while ANP candidate dropped down to 6% of votes. This voting trend
indicates a slight inclination of voters towards religious parties rather than secular political
parties. It is believed that JI has some stable vote bank while the rest of voters are moving
from one political party to another, that affect the results of NA-34 and provincial assembly
seats in Lower Dir (FAFEN, 2017).
3.5 FLUCTUATIONS IN TURNOUT
According to Free and Fair Elections Network (FAFEN) report, out of thirty-one (31)
predominantly rural constituencies of National Assembly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, twelve
(12) witnessed an increase of 10.1% to 15% in their turnout in General Elections 2013 in
comparison with their average turnout of 2002 and 2008 elections. Among these one of the
two predominantly urban constituencies‟ turnouts moves up to 15.1% to 20% and another
observed over 20% increase vis-à-vis its average turnout of 2002 and 2008 general
elections. The remaining two constituencies, one semi-urban and another majority rural
experienced 10.1% to 15% increase in respect of their average of 2002 and 2008 general
elections. In contrast to provincial and national trends, the predominantly rural areas of NA-
26 registered a decrease of 0.6% in the turnout vis-à-vis its 2002 and 2008 average of 41.2%
(FAFEN, 2017). It is assumed that where the ratio of party voters is little the ratio of turnout
is also low. Party voters and turnout ratio are directly proportion to each other. If one
increases the next one also increases.
79
3.6 VOTE BANK OF POLITICAL PARTIES
There has been up and down in the vote bank of different political parties in these elections
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The results of three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) depict that in
each general elections, a different political party came into power with majority votes in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Likewise in General Elections 2002, MMA became the most popular
political power in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 42% of the total polled votes, while in General
Elections 2008 PPP and ANP attracted majority voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the last
General Elections 2013, PTI a very new political force came into power with majority votes
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This part, of the chapter explores the transformation of vote bank
from one political party to another one in each General Election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Table No. 32
Vote bank of different Political Parties in General Elections 2002 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Political Parties/ Candidates Total Obtained votes Votes % NA seats
MMA 1,409,344 42% 29
Independent candidates 561,417 17% 12
PML-Q 430,009 13% 4
PPP 300,683 9% --
ANP 283,112 8% --
PML-N 154,835 5% --
PPP-S 98,145 3% 2
PTI 39,127 1% --
National Allaince 24,548 1% --
Pakistan Awami Tehreek 9,812 0.29% --
PML-Jinnah 5,956 0.18% --
Qaumi Jamhoori Party 4,687 0.14% --
PML-Z 3,523 0.11% --
Hazara Qaumi Mahaz 3,384 0.1% --
Pakistan Awami Party 2,592 0.08% --
Pakistan Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami
Party
2,327 0.07% --
Pak Watan party 1,563 0.05% --
Pakistan Mazdoor Kisan Party 962 0.03% --
MQM 603 0.02% --
Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup
Election Studies Team, 2013.
Haroon K. Ullah in his study argued that during election campaign, the religious
political parties‟ candidates discuss religiously inspired issues to gain the support of
80
common voters (Ullah, 2014:75-76). Likewise, demand and implementation of Sharia laws
etc. is commonly used in speeches during election campaign. Sometimes, religion
contributes in the polarization of public opinion on different political issues (Fiorina, 2005).
In General Elections 2002 the group of six religio-political parties united in the shape of
MMA for a common cause in the name of Sharia Law and Islamic System. MMA
candidates‟ campaign was against the west and implementation of Sharia Law in Pakistan.
The MMA‟s election campaign slogan was, “to take away power from the pro-American
and secular forces and establish a true Islamic system in the country”. The alliance
demonstrates itself as the only alternative against the so-called corrupt political parties,
secular and Pro-western rulers such as President General Musharraf and other political
parties. The leadership of MMA believed that the prevailing political situation in the region
provides them with the best opportunity to attract a far greater number of votes than in the
previous elections, particularly in areas such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the people
were religious and had sympathies with Afghan brothers than other provinces of Pakistan.
Therefore, in election campaign speeches, MMA leadership stressed on the people that only
the “forces of Islam” MMA can protect the country from the disaster of un-Islamic policies
of other (secular and ethnic) political parties. The MMA leadership promised to the voters
to expel US forces from the region and also wanted to introduce the Islamic system of
government. During the election campaign, MMA also warned the Americans to stop
interfering in the internal affairs of Muslim countries and openly expressed sympathy for
the former Taliban leader (Mulla Umar) of Afghanistan who were defeated and ousted by
US and NATO forces. It was the first time in the electoral history of Pakistan that religious
political parties got 42% of total polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While, independent
candidates secured the second position with 17% of total polled votes and PML-Q
candidates got 13% of total votes. The so called secular political Pakistan Peoples Party and
Awami National Party bagged 9% and 8% votes respectively. However, PML-N and PPP-
81
Sherpao group received 5% and 3% ballots and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and National
Alliance got 1% votes each, while the rest of political parties could not show any prominent
position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Rauf and Ayaz, 2011).
Table No. 33
Vote bank of different Political Parties in General Elections 2008 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Political
Parties/Candidates
Total Obtained votes Votes % NA seats
Independent candidates 922,878 24% 13
PPPP 677,117 17% 9
ANP 612,239 16% 10
PML-Q 541,714 14% 5
MMA 479,712 12% 4
PML-N 462,274 12% 4
PPP-S 140,988 4% 1
Pakistan Awami Party 9,248 0.5% --
Pakistan Citizen Movement 5,441 0.14% --
MQM 5,095 0.13% --
Pakistan Bachao Tehreek 2,744 0.07% --
Awami Himayat Tehreek
Pakistan
1,979 0.05% --
Pakistan Muhafiz Party 1,434 0.04% --
PPP-shaheed Bhutto 232 0.01% --
Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled
by Gallup Election Studies Team, 2013
As a result of Benazir Bhutto assassination on 27th
December 2007 the elections
were rescheduled form 8th
January to 18th
February 2008 (Nelson, 2009). During that time
the political situation became more turbulent in the whole country. The incident of
Benazir‟s death won sympathies of voters to PPP candidates all over the country. As a
result, the PPP bagged the largest mandate in General Elections 2008 in the whole country.
In General Elections 2008, there was a complete shift in the vote bank of different political
parties of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (see Table-33). Unlike the General Elections 2002, the
voting behaviour of the voters mould on 180o degree from religious political parties towards
secular and ethic political parties that were PPP and ANP that came forward as major
political parties of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Although, PPP and ANP boost up because of the
dismemberment of MMA into individual political parties and JI that was a major force in
82
MMA boycotted the General Elections 2008. However, PTI and PKMAP also boycotted
from the election that provide space to ANP and PPP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Shah, 2013).
Interestingly, in General Elections 2008, the independent candidates secured 24% of
the total polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A major portion of vote bank from political
parties shifted to the independent candidates in 2008. However, the Pakistan Peoples‟ Party
vote bank in 2008 remained same in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa like the General Elections 2002.
On the other hand, ANP secured 16% votes that were doubled of the 2002 election in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, PML-Q vote bank increased one percent (1%) from the
previous general elections, while MMA vote bank went down to the lowest level that was
12% only. In general elections 2008, MMA vote bank reduced to one third (1/3) of the
previous General Elections. Pakistan Muslim League vote bank improved from 5% to 12%
and PPP-Sherpao voters also increased from 3% to 4%. The rest of the minor political
parties could not secure a major share in vote bank in 2008 elections in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2008 we can see conversion of voters from one extreme
that was an alliance of religious political parties to another extreme of secular political
parties i.e., ANP and PPP (Gallup, 2013).
Table No.34
Vote bank of different Political Parties in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Political Parties/
Candidates
Total Obtained votes Votes % NA seats
PTI 1,573,124 27% 17
JUI-F/MMA 954,256 16% 6
PML-N 891,399 15% 5
Independents 763,527 13% 7
ANP 413,321 7% 1
JI 404,127 7% 3
PPP 392,191 7% 1
All others 286,607 5% 2
JUI others 55,212 1% 1
PML Others 35,193 1% 1
PML-Q 10,199 0.18% --
MQM 6,707 0.12% --
PPP others 1,073 0.02% --
Source: Gilani‟s Index of Electoral Record, based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, compiled by Gallup
Election Studies Team, 2013
After the completion of ANP tenure, new election was scheduled on 11th
May 2013.
As a result of this election, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) bagged majority (seventeen (17)
83
in National Assembly and sixty-one (61) seats in Provincial Assembly of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. During the elections, Awami National Party was not able to run its campaign
freely because of threats from the militants. As a result of ANP poor election campaign
provides space for Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, ANP and PPP could not retain its previous position; therefore, the main
beneficiaries were PTI and PML-N in 2013 election. On the other hand, Jamaat-i-Islami,
which boycotted the previous 2008 elections, won seats in Provincial Assembly as well as
in National Assembly. Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao‟s Qawmi Watan Party, which contested
as PPP-S in 2008 General Elections retain its position and won five (5) and Awami
Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP) won two (2) seats. Independents, which played a decisive
role in the formation of governments in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bagged ten (10) to eleven
(11) seats (DAWN, 2013). Moreover, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf that secured only 1% votes
in General Elections 2002 and boycotted 2008 general elections bagged 27% votes General
Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Apart from that, MMA lead by JUI-F retained its
position and secured 16% of total polled votes while PML-N voters‟ support also enhanced
from 12% to 15% in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Independent candidates vote bank reduced from
24% to 13% and ANP also faced a set back from 16% to 7% votes. The position of PPP also
slides down from 17% to 7% votes and JI vote bank grow up to 7% in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The rest of contested political parties could not get a prominent voters
support in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Gallup, 2013).
Summary
The comparison of three general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) results presents the detail
of voters support to different political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The most important
feature identifies is the changing ratio of voters support to political parties in different
elections. In general elections 2002, MMA secured the majority votes in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa followed by Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid Group. It is considered that the
84
USA and its Allies attack on Afghanistan played a great role in MMA victory. In General
Elections 2008, voters completely divert to ANP and PPP that are secularist-cum-nationalist
political parties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, ANP won majority votes followed by PPP, while
MMA could not retain its previous position. In General Elections 2013, ANP faced a
setback and Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf (PTI) won majority votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Secondly, the ratio of independent candidates and their vote bank growing in the three
recent general elections that presenting the non-partisan voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In
General Elections 2002, independent candidates secured the second largest vote bank 17%
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections, 2008 independent candidates received the
highest vote bank with (24%) of total votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the last General
Elections 2013, the independent candidates' vote bank reduced to the fourth position in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study identified different socio-political and economic
determinants that mould the voters‟ preferences in elections. It is assumed that these
determinants are shaping partisan and floating voters. This identified a significant ratio of
floating voters and party loyal voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, the floating voters
are playing a key role in changing the elections results (national and provincial assembly
constituencies) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
85
CHAPTER – 4
IDENTIFICATION OF FLOATING
VOTERS IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Who are floating voters? Why floating voters are changing their loyalties from one political
party to another political party? How we can identify a floating voter? To address these
questions we need to understand the meaning of the term floating voter. Collins Dictionary
defined floating voters as, “Those voters who are not firm supporter of any political party,
and whose vote in an election is difficult to predict”. Duadt (1961) believed that floating
voters move from one political party to another political party in different elections. It is
assumed that floating voters‟ phenomenon has a paramount importance in the field of
elections study and voting behaviour.
John Zaller (2013) in his research work argued that poorly informed electorate more
likely to shift back and forth between the parties during election campaigns. He also
identified that “Ideological Innocence” among the voters, provides the impression that they
cast their ballots irregularly to different parties. Therefore those voters who are politically
less aware and „ideological innocence‟, they are not loyal to a single political party but their
loyalties are changing in each election. The floating voters are also called „know-nothing
voters‟ in other research studies (Zaller, 2013; Claassen, 2007; Carmines and Stimson,
1989; Rapoport and Stone, 1994).
The political system of Pakistan based on multi-party system. Political parties are
categorized into ethnic, nationalist and religious clusters. Ethnic and nationalist clusters
consist of Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Awami National Party (ANP), Pakhtunkhwa Milli
Awami Party (PKMP), Muthahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM), Pakistan Muslim League-
Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). While religious political parties are
Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal (JUI-F), Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Sami ul Haq (JUI-S), Jamaat-i-
86
Islami Pakistan (JIP), Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan-Noorani (JUP), Pakistan Awami Tehreek
(PAT) etc. The voters have multiple choices in elections (Usman and Ashghar, 1988). It is
on his/her behalf that which political party he/she wanted to switch on or switch off. If a
voter has religious tendencies he/she want to join religious political party. Some of the
voters are confused to join which religious political party, because all these religious
political parties have very little differences in their manifesto, program, agenda and
ideology. Therefore, in such political scenario the voters motivated towards the personality
rather than political party because political parties have similar ideologies only leadership is
different.
On the other hand, in multi-party political system the independent candidates also
secure a large number of votes because of their personal influence in their contesting
constituencies. It is a common practice in Pakistan that a large number of candidates contest
election independently. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a significant number of independent
candidates contest elections. Therefore, in general elections 2002 independent candidates
secured the second largest polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. While in general elections
2008 the independent candidates bagged the largest polled votes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
However, in general elections 2013 the independent candidates‟ political support drops
down to forth position in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Gallup, 2013). It demonstrates that
personality politics is a very important determinant of electoral politics. In Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa some important political personalities are Asfandiyar Wali Khan and Aftab
Ahmad Khan Sherpao of Charsadda, Mian Nisar Gul of Karak, Maulan Qasim, Mualana
Fazlur Rehman, Saifullah Brothers of Lakki Marwat etc. The charisma and personal
influence of these political figures has more weight than a political party in their respective
constituencies.
During election campaign local and international issues in which religion is
exploited by the religious political parties (Shah et al, 2016; Trent and Friedenberg, 2004;
87
Dorussen and Taylor, 2001; Cramines and Stimson, 1980) and the ethno-nationalist political
parties are trying to give it a nationalist and ethnic colour in election campaign and other
political activities. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa all political parties using different strategies to
pull the voters during election campaign. It is also considered that the ratio of „retrospective
voters‟ in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is declining and they are trying to test new political party in
the next elections likewise Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf is a test case. Moreover, in different
elections various political parties joined the alliance with such political parties that are
contradictory to each other‟s ideology. As a result of those alliances, a large number of
ideological voters switch to other political parties. In General Elections 2013, JUI-F, ANP
and PPP joined hands against the PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This alliance was not
tolerable to the ideological voters. Therefore, some of the ideological voters left their
respective political parties.
In United States, Democrats and Republicans political parties are contesting
elections. The voters in US are either to join Democrats or Republican Party. Therefore a
voter has limited choice of two political parties only, either to accept party „A‟ or „B‟. It is
assumed that the ratio of floating voters in bi-party political system is nominal while in
multi-party system it may be larger.
On the other hand, various researchers argued that the level of „political
sophistication‟ is also an important factor to explain constancy and change in voters‟
preferences in elections. There are two different opinions about the influence of political
sophistication on electoral volatility. One opinion is proposing that political sophistication
increasing electoral volatility while the other opinion is against it. The proponents of
Columbian School argued that electoral volatility is higher among those voters who had a
low level of political awareness (Berelson et al., 1963; Lazarsfeld et al., 1968). That
assumption was proved in the 1940s and 1950s studies which identified a large number of
politically less aware voters switch from one party to another.
88
Since 1980s, many political scientists challenged the previous traditional floating
voter theory (that was presented by Colombian School) and introduced a new floating voter
theory (Dalton, 2013; Dalton et al., 2000; Habert & Lancelot, 1988). Dalton introduced
„Cognitive Mobilization Theory‟ which suggests that electoral volatility is larger among
politically aware and sophisticated voters. The proponents of the „Cognitive Mobilization
Theory‟ believed that the appearance of a politically sophisticated voter can be seen as a
result of the process of cognitive mobilization. The cognitive mobilization process covers
two distinct aspects: firstly, the rising education ratio that increases voters‟ cognitive skills,
and secondly, technological development and access political information. Those voters
who possess the necessary political skills of political sophistication they can independently
make their electoral choices. Dalton et al. (2000) argued that less politically aware voters
would depend on their “long-term” party affiliation. While politically aware voters are more
susceptible to “short-term” forces such as personality, issues, and performance when
choosing what party to vote for. Therefore, it is believed that highly political sophisticated
voters‟ electoral volatility and instability is greater than less politically sophisticated (Habert
& Lancelot, 1988, Dalton, 1984; Dalton et al., 2000, Dalton, 2007, 2013).
The Cognitive Mobilization Theory (CMT) puts forward a rational voting choice
model. This model demonstrated that issues and performance influence the voter‟s choice.
On the other hand, the proponents of the CMT argued that political awareness and
sophistication strengthen party loyal voters (Tiberj, 2015; Albright, 2009; Muxel, 2009).
These findings were strongly supporting the traditional floating voter hypothesis.
Converse (1962) rejected Colombian School‟s traditional model and Dalton‟s
Cognitive Mobilization Theory of floating voter. Converse (1962) argued that moderate
voters are more volatile than highly politically aware and less political aware voters.
Whereas, Converse (1962), Dassonneville & Dejaeghere (2014), Kuhn (2009), Lachat
(2007) and Van Der Meer et al. (2015) studies in the field of electoral studies have different
89
results regarding what effect political awareness may have on strong party preferences and
electoral volatility.
Political disaffection is also a significant factor that influences instability in
partisans. It is assumed that the political dissatisfaction and floating voters have a strong
relationship. Zelle (1995) put forward the concept of „frustrated floating voter model‟. This
model demonstrates the preservation of a strong relationship between voter and political
party. The good performance of a political party strengthens its membership. But frustration
started among the supports against a political party when it failed to achieve its targets and
failed to perform in a better way (Zelle, 1995). Political disaffection stirred the frustrated
voter preferences in the next election. Consequently, frustrated voters express
dissatisfaction and switch to other political parties (Zelle, 1995:332). Zelle study also
figures out, that unstable voters‟ distrust on democracy and political parties. Dalton and
Weldon (2005) argued that distrust in parties is the main reason of electoral volatility.
Muxel (2009) argued that political satisfaction plays the role of catalyst in party
loyalty. The study highlighted the impact of political satisfaction on electoral volatility. On
the other hand, Soerlund (2008) presented the relationship between party performance and
party affiliation. He argued that after the evaluation of party performance a voter decides to
remain a member of the same political party or switch to another political party. The poor
performance of a political party fails to secure the support of the retrospective voters in
succeeding election. Sorderlund challenged Zelle (1995) theory of „frustrated voters‟ in
which they connected political frustration with electoral volatility. Dassonneville, Blais, and
Dejaeghere (2015) pointed out that politically frustrated voters change their political
affiliations when they are dissatisfied from the party they voted.
Crow (2005) and Van Der Meer et al. (2015) studies identified the influence of
ideology on electoral volatility. They classified ideological voters into radical and moderate.
Radical ideological voters are extremists. Van Der Meer et al. (2015) argue that ideological
90
extremeness is a strong bond between voter and political party. In this case, the probability
of party switching for a voter is unusual in the next election. On the other hand, moderate
ideological voters can easily change their political parties in each election. Moderate voters
are unstable rather than radical voters. Willocq (2016) argues that in multi-party systems
ideologically moderate voters have more opportunity to switch new political parties. In
multi-party system have the possibility of several political parties of the same ideological
background. Therefore, moderate voters have many political choices in coming elections.
On the basis of the previous studies researcher has been asked different questions
from the respondents to identify the floating voters. The researcher asked from the
respondents that which political party they supported in 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections?
From these questions we can identify the percentage of voters who is constantly supporting
a political party. As well as, we can see variation in the political parties‟ voters to compare
the data of three elections.
4.2 POLITICAL PARTIES SUPPORT IN GENERAL ELECTIONS
The respondents support to different political parties in three elections (2002, 2008 and
2013) shows in Table-35. The data shows that each political party position in each election.
Among the respondents many have different choices in each election. Therefore, the vote
bank of each political party is different from the other one. The survey results show each
political party position in each election.
Table No. 35
Political
Parties
MMA ANP PML-
N
PPP-
S/QW
P
JI JUI-F PTI PPP Indp Don‟t
Remembe
r
2002 5.20% 3.50
%
3.10% 1.30% 3.90% 5.10% 0.90% 5.30% 9.20
%
11.10%
2008 1.30% 8.60
%
4.90% 2.80% 0.00% 2.80% 0.00% 10.60
%
8.40
%
20.90%
2013 0.00% 7% 9.30% 4.50% 12.20
%
11.40
%
26.50
%
7.70% 5% 3.40%
Source: Field data
During survey three questions were asked regarding 2002, 2008 and 2013 General
Elections from the respondents that which political party you voted? The data in Table-35 is
91
presenting fluctuations of the different political parties‟ positions in three general elections
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In General Elections 2002, MMA got support of 5.2% vote among
the respondents but in General Elections 2008, MMA position went down to 1.3% while in
General Elections 2013 MMA is disintegrated into individual political parties. Therefore,
the vote bank of MMA distributed to each political party especially in JUI-F, JI. Among the
total respondents 3.5% voted to ANP in General Elections 2002, ratio increased to 8.6% in
General Elections 2008 and 7% in General Elections 2013. However, PML-N got 3.1%
support in 2002, 4.9% in 2008 and 9.3% in General Elections 2013. QWP secured 1.3%
support in 2002, 2.8% in 2008 and 4.5% in General Elections 2013. The PPP support in
2002 was 5.3%, while in 2008 it reached to 10.6% and in General Elections 2013 it dropped
down to 7.7%. Moreover, among the total respondents only 0.9% respondents voted to PTI
in 2002, in General Elections 2008 PTI boycotted the elections and in 2013 General
Elections 26.5% respondents voted to PTI. Although, the independent candidates have 9.2%
support in General Elections 2002, 8.4% support in 2008 and 5% in General Elections 2013
(see Table-36).
Table No. 36
Source: Field data
A Paired Samples test applied to understand the differences in each pair of
elections. In first pair the value of T=1.68 with p-value=0.100> than 0.05 which shows
insignificant difference between general elections 2002 and 2008. However in the second
Paired Samples Test
General Elections
Paired Differences t df Sig. (2-
tailed) Mean Std.
Deviati
on
Std.
Error
Mean
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower Upper
Pair
1
2002
VS.2008
0.23173 4.7097
5
0.1406
1
-.04415 .50761 1.648 1121 0.100
Pair
2
2008 VS.
2013
2.67112E
0
4.5945
0
0.1371
6
2.40200 2.94025 1.947E1 1121 0.000
Pair
3
2013 VS.
2002
-
2.90285E
0
4.4753
7
0.1336
1
-3.16500 -2.64070 -
2.173E1
1121 0.000
92
pair T=19.47 with p-value=0.0001< than 0.05 which shows significant difference between
2008 and 2013 general elections. And in the last pair T=-21.73 with p-value=0.0001< than
0.05 shows a significant difference between 2013 and 2002 general elections. The data
shows a significant difference among the respondents about each election that considers
floating voters.
4.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOATING VOTERS
There are different variables through which we can measure the floating voters. Like, late
vote decision, political awareness, satisfaction on previous vote decision and issue voting.
4.3.1 Late Vote Decision
J. David Gopoian and Sissie (1994) argue that during elections late deciders are not Party
loyal voters. It is also believed that late deciders are unpredictable in their vote choice. The
candidate preferences of late deciders are not determined by the conventional political
forces that motivate other voters in elections. On the other hand, early deciders are those
electorates who already chose the party they wanted to support in election. The voting
behavior of those voters who are deciding late in the campaign is unpredictable. Campbell
et al. (1960:82-83) figured out the voters who decided earlier are distinguished from those
who decide late primarily in the degree to which they experienced in their evaluation of the
candidate and party. Whereas, voters who decided to vote a political party one month before
the polling day are considered partisan voter and those voters who are undecided to vote a
particular party till the last day or one day before the election consider them floating voters
or undecided voters.
93
Among the total respondents 35.1% said that they decide to vote a party candidate
one month ahead of the election, while 9.2% respondents stated that they decide to vote one
week earlier than election. On the other hand, 8.1% responded that they decide to vote a
candidate one day before election and 15.6% respondents decide to vote a candidate on the
polling day. Among the total respondents, 32.1% were confused about the timing to decide
vote (see in Figure-1). During survey those respondents were unclear and they believed that
they vote to their party candidate from the first day, while some among them did not
remember that when they decide to vote a particular candidate. Among the total respondents
17% decide to vote a candidate one day before or on polling day that may be deem floating
voters. For further detail the association of the different controlled variable like gender, age,
qualification, income, marital status, districts and union council and the timing of decision
to vote depict a detail picture. We can say that those voters who decided one day prior or on
the polling day are considered later deciders. While those voters who decided one month
before the election is called earlier deciders.
4.3.1.1 Gender Consideration
The correlation of the data illustrates that there is a clear difference between the response of
the male and female respondents about the timing to decide vote. In Table-37, among the
total respondents, a small number of male and female respondents said that they decided to
94
vote one day earlier from polling day. However, some of the male and female respondents
assume that they decide to vote on elections day.
Meanwhile, several male and female respondents did not have any idea that when
they had to decide to vote. However, among the total respondents a major portion of male
voters and some of female voters decide one month earlier from the polling day. Moreover,
a tiny portion of male and female respondents decide to vote a week ago from the election.
The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows association between
decision to vote and gender.
Table No. 37
When you decide to vote in election?
Gender
One month
before
election
One week
before
election
One day
before
election
On election
day
Don‟t
know
Total
Male 253
(22.5%) 56(5%) 47(4.2%) 93(8.3%) 177(15.8%) 626(55.8%)
Female 141(12.6%) 47(4.2%) 44(3.9%) 82(7.3%) 182(16.2%) 496(44.2%)
Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=18.672a, p-value=.001
4.3.1.2 Age Consideration
In Table-38, the age of respondents is accordingly divided into seven categories. These
seven categories are classified into adults, youngster, middle age and aged. The correlation
of the different categories of age group with the timing to decide vote shows the importance
of age. Among the total respondents, some of adults and youngsters decided to vote one day
before the election, while a meager portion of middle and aged respondents stated that they
had to decide one day before election. However, among the total respondents, some of
youngsters and middle age respondents said that they decided to vote on polling day, while
a minor portion of aged people argued that they decided to vote on polling day. Those
voters who decide to vote a particular candidate or political party one day before or on
election day were considered floating voters.
95
On the other hand, among the total respondents, a major share of the adults, youth,
middle and aged respondents were unclear about the timing when they decide to vote. Those
voters who responded dubiously they may be either partisan or floating voters. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between
decision to vote and age.
Table No. 38
When you decide to vote in election?
Age of the
Responde
nt
One month
before election
One week
before election
One day
before
election
On election
day
Don‟t
know
Total
18-23 61(5.4%) 21(1.9%) 17(1.5%) 45(4%) 65(5.8%) 209(18.6%)
23-27 59(5.3%) 23(2%) 21(1.9%) 32(2.9%) 66(5.9%) 201(17.9%)
27-32 69(6.1%) 15(1.3%) 10(.9%) 44(3.9%) 59(5.3%) 197(17.6%)
32-37 59(5.3%) 18(1.6%) 14(1.2%) 14(1.2%) 38(3.4%) 143(12.7%)
37-42 57(5.1%) 10(0.9%) 15(1.3%) 13(1.2%) 51(4.5%) 146(13%)
42-50 43(3.8%) 8(0.7%) 4(0.4%) 17(1.5%) 44(3.9%) 116(10.3%)
Above 50 46(4.1%) 8(0.7%) 10(0.9%) 10(0.9%) 36(3.2%) 110(9.8%)
Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 45.619a, p-value=.005
4.3.1.3 Professional Consideration
Among the different professional categories of respondents, in Table-39, an insignificant
number of businessmen decide to vote one day earlier from the election and a little number
of businessmen decides to vote on polling day. However, a meager number of daily wagers
decides to vote one day before election and some of them decide to vote on polling day. A
small number of government employees decide to vote one day earlier from the election day
and some of them decide to vote on election day, while a few non-government servants
decide to vote one day earlier and some decides to vote on polling day. At last, a small
number of farmers decide to one day earlier of the polling day and on polling day. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between
decision to vote and profession.
96
Table No. 39
When you decide to vote in election?
Profession One month
before
election
One week
before
election
One day
before
election
On election
day
Don‟t
know
Total
Business 41(3.7%) 6(.5%) 14(1.2%) 15(1.3%) 34(3%) 110(9.8%)
Daily wage 26(2.3%) 12(1.1%) 17(1.5%) 22(2%) 18(1.6%) 95(8.5%)
Government
Servant
93(8.3%) 17(1.5%) 9(.8%) 22(2%) 72(6.4%) 213(19%)
Non-govt. Servant 58(5.2%) 11(1%) 13(1.2%) 36(3.2%) 33(2.9%) 151(13.5%)
Farming 19(1.7%) 11(1%) 8(0.7%) 11(1%) 29(2.6%) 78(7%)
Unemployed 70(6.2%) 22(2%) 4(0.4%) 27(2.4%) 54(4.8%) 177(15.8%)
Housewives 87(7.8%) 24(2.1%) 26(2.3%) 42(3.7%) 119(10.6%) 298(26.6%)
Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 79.186a, p-value=.000
4.3.1.4 Economic Consideration
As far as monthly income is concerned, in Table-40, a small number of lower income class
respondents decide to vote one day before polling and a significant number of the same
income class decide to vote on election day. While a considerable number of middle and
lower middle income class respondents whose monthly income decide one day before the
election and a few decides to vote on Election Day. Moreover, some of the respondents who
did not mention their monthly income decided one day before the election. While a large
number of the respondents who did not mention their monthly income decided to vote on
elections day.
Among the different income groups‟ respondents, a significant number of lower,
middle and upper class said that they decide to vote one day earlier from the election.
However a sizeable number of lower, middle and upper class respondents decided to vote
on polling day. Among the different income class respondents a large number of lower,
middle and upper class respondents did not know when they decided to vote. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between
decision to vote and income.
97
Table No. 41
When you decide you vote in election?
Monthly
income
One month
before
election
One week
before
election
One day
before
election
On election
day
Don‟t know
Total
Below 10,000 83(7.4%) 33(2.9%) 22(2%) 53(4.7%) 54(4.8%) 245(21.8%)
10000-20000 58(5.2%) 16(1.4%) 15(1.3%) 31(2.8%) 45(4%) 165(14.7%)
20000-30000 51(4.5%) 21(1.9%) 12(1.1%) 17(1.5%) 48(4.3%) 149(13.3%)
30000-40000 32(2.9%) 3(0.3%) 7(0.6%) 7(0.6%) 24(2.1%) 73(6.5%)
40000-50000 20(1.8%) 7(0.6%) 8(0.7%) 6(0.5%) 10(0.9%) 51(4.5%)
Above 50000 31(2.8%) 2(0.2%) 0(0.0%) 8(0.7%) 11(1%) 52(4.6%)
Don‟t know 119(10.6%) 21(1.9%) 27(2.4%) 53(4.7%) 167(14.9%) 387(34.5%)
Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 81.350a, p-value=.000
4.3.1.5 Marital Consideration
Among the total respondents‟ majority of the married respondents decide to vote one month
earlier than the election. As far as marital status is concerned, in Table-42, some of the
married respondents decide to vote one day before the election and a considerable number
of female decide to vote on polling day. However, meager number of unmarried
respondents decides one day before the election and small quantity respondents decide to
vote on polling day. Among the total married respondents, a large number of respondents
did not know when they decide to vote, while a significant number of unmarried
respondents had a similar response. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant
which shows no association between the decision to vote and marital status.
Table No. 42
When you decide to vote in election?
Marital
status
One month
before
election
One week
before
election
One day
before
election
On election
day
Don‟t
know
Total
Married 254
(22.6%)
59(5.3%) 53(4.7%) 102(9.1%) 241(21.5
%)
709(63.2%)
Unmarried 133(11.9%) 40(3.6%) 35(3.1%) 69(6.1%) 113(10.1
%)
390(34.8%)
Widow 7(0.6%) 4(0.4%) 3(0.3%) 4(0.4%) 5(0.4%) 23(2%)
Total 394(35.1%) 103(9.2%) 91(8.1%) 175(15.6%) 359(32%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=9.074a, p-value=.336
4.3.1.6 Educational Consideration
In terms of education, in Table-43, a small number of the total respondents who have
primary level education decide to vote one day before election or on the very day of
99
Table No. 44
When you decide to vote in election?
Geograp
hical
Region
One month
before
election
One week
before election
One day
before
election
On election
day
Don‟t
know
Total
North 171 18 22 65 104 380
15.2% 1.6% 2.0% 5.8% 9.3% 33.9%
Center 99 33 27 52 149 360
8.8% 2.9% 2.4% 4.6% 13.3% 32.1%
South 124 52 42 58 106 382
11.1% 4.6% 3.7% 5.2% 9.4% 34%
Total 394 103 91 175 359 1122
35.1% 9.2% 8.1% 15.6% 32% 100%
Pearson Chi-Square=55.767a, p-value=.000
4.3.2 Lack of Political Awareness
Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee (1963) argued that, “voters with a low level of political
sophistication are more likely than highly sophisticated voters to change their mind in the
weeks preceding the electoral contest”. Political interest of an individual is a very important
feature for the involvement in the active politics. Langton (1969) and Massialas et al. (1971)
study identified the importance of the political interest and political attachment. Political
knowledge and political awareness are interconnected with each other. Verba, Schlozman
and Brady (1995) pointed out that, “political knowledge, measured by asking respondents
the names of public officials, representatives, ministers and indigenous politics is a
significant predictor of time based political activity, voting, and political discussion”.
Various researches also emphasized that political information and political activity are
interdependent on each other in a society (Carpini & Keeter, 1996: 224; Junn, 1991;
Sotirovic & McLeod, 2001:276) and growing political culture.
There are also different parameters of political participation like, awareness about
the voters list, importance of vote, eligibility age for vote, manifesto of a political party etc.
It is assume that political awareness in a society has direct impact on the political
participation. It is also observed that voting behaviour of the politically aware electorates is
different from the politically unaware electorates. Therefore political awareness
significantly affects the voters‟ preferences.
100
Regular elections are one of the fundamental principles of democratization process.
In fact, it is an effective and convenient way by which citizens can participate in political
processes. To measure the level of political awareness Campbell & Nojin Kwak (2010)
asked three types of questions to identify political participation like, attending a political
meeting, rallies, speech; circulating a petition for a candidate or issue; and lastly, contacting
a public official or a political party (McLeod et al.,1999; Xenos & Moy, 2007). To measure
the level of political awareness and to identify the floating voters‟, the researcher asked
from the respondents about the manifesto of political party, satisfaction from the party
performance and participation in party meetings.
4.3.2.1 Information about the Party Manifesto
Political party manifesto is one of the best sources to know about the party politics and its
future policies regarding the local politics and international politics (Willocq, 2016). Those
who are interested in politics and members of political parties they are regularly reading
their respective political parties‟ manifestoes. However, those voters who are not interested
in politics and political parties they are not willing to read the political parties manifestoes.
Information regarding political party manifesto is also an indicator of political awareness.
Unfortunately, in Pakhtun society the habit of reading is very low. Therefore the political
parties used social media or public speeches to inform the party voters about the manifesto.
To know the level of political awareness the researcher asked from the respondents that „do
they know the party manifestos? The response of the people correlated with controlled
variables (Gender, age, education, profession, marital status, monthly income and
geographical regions).
4.3.2.2 Gender Consideration
Among the total respondents' majority of the female responded that they did not read the
manifestoes of the political party. The main reason is that female folk is politically less
aware than male family members in Pakhtun society. As far as gender is concerned, Table-
101
45 shows that a significant number of female and male respondents said that they did not
read the manifesto of any political party. However, some of the female respondents and
male respondents did not know about the manifesto of the political party. The P-value<0.05
of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender and
reading of the manifesto of a political party.
Table No. 45
Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting?
Gender Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Male 67 (6%) 121(10.8%) 67(6%) 248(22.1%) 123(11%) 626(55.8%)
Female 132(11.8%) 174(15.5%) 142(12.7%) 37(3.3%) 11(1%) 496(44.2%)
102
4.3.2.3 Professional Consideration
As far as profession is concerned, among the total respondents (see Table-47) a major share
of housewives did not read the manifestoes of the political parties. Some of the unemployed
respondents and government servants did not read the manifestoes of political parties.
Moreover, an insignificant number of non-government servants and daily wagers also did
not read the manifestos of the political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the profession and reading of the manifesto
of a political party.
Table No. 47
Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting?
Profession Not at all No Don‟t know To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Business 22 (2%) 16(1.4%) 14(1.2%) 34(3%) 24(2.1%) 110(9.8%)
daily wage 16(1.4%) 30(2.7%) 12(1.1%) 29(2.6%) 8(.7%) 95(8.5%)
Government
Servant
26(2.3%) 44(3.9%) 43(3.8%) 69(6.1%) 31(2.8%) 213(19%)
Non-government 23(2%) 32(2.9%) 28(2.5%) 45(4%) 23(2%) 151(13.5%)
Farming 12(1.1%) 12(1.1%) 12(1.1%) 28(2.5%) 14(1.2%) 78(7%)
Unemployed 25(2.2%) 43(3.8%) 32(2.9%) 53(4.7%) 24(2.1%) 177(15.8%)
Housewives 75(6.7%) 118(10.5%) 68(6.1%) 27(2.4%) 10(.9%) 298(26.6%)
Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%)
Chi-Square Test=1.349E2a, p-value=.000
4.3.2.4 Economic Consideration
As far as monthly income is concerned (see Table-48), a significant number of respondents
who did not mention their monthly income denied reading the manifesto of a political party.
However, a large number of lower income class affirmed that they did not read the
manifesto of a political party. While, a minor portion of middle class respondents reacted
that they did not study the manifesto of a political party. Lastly, a minimal number of
respondents upper income class said that they did not study the manifesto of a political
party.
A considerable number of lower, middle and upper economic class respondent were
unfamiliar about the political party manifestoes. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the income and reading of the manifesto of
a political party.
103
Table No. 48
Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting?
Monthly income Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent Total
Below 10,000 40(3.6%) 60(5.3%) 33(2.9%) 70(6.2%) 42(3.7%) 245(21.8%)
10000-20000 29(2.6%) 48(4.3%) 20(1.8%) 46(4.1%) 22(2%) 165(14.7%)
20000-30000 21(1.9%) 25(2.2%) 38(3.4%) 44(3.9%) 21(1.9%) 149(13.3%)
30000-40000 9(0.8%) 22(2%) 15(1.3%) 21(1.9%) 6(0.5%) 73(6.5%)
40000-50000 10(0.9%) 9(0.8%) 8(0.7%) 19(1.7%) 5(0.4%) 51(4.5%)
Above 50000 5(0.4%) 5(0.4%) 9(0.8%) 17(1.5%) 16(1.4%) 52(4.6%)
Don‟t know 85(7.6%) 126(11.2%) 86(7.7%) 68(6.1%) 22(2%) 387(34.5%)
Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%)
Chi-Square Test=93.239a, p-value=.000
4.3.2.5 Marital Status Consideration
To keep in view the marital status of the respondents, among the total respondent in Table-
49, we have found a large number of married respondents who did not read the manifesto of
the political party. A great number of unmarried respondents also accept that they did not
study the manifestos. Some of the married and unmarried respondents show unfamiliar
opinion about the parties‟ manifestoes. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
insignificant which shows no association between the marital status and reading of the
manifesto of a political party.
Table No. 49
Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting?
Marital status Not at all No don‟t know To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Married 134 (11.9%) 188(16.8%) 127(11.3%) 181(16.1%) 79(7%) 709(63.2%)
Unmarried 62(5.5%) 98(8.7%) 76(6.8%) 101(9%) 53(4.7%) 390(34.8%)
Widow 3(0.3%) 9(0.8%) 6(0.5%) 3(0.3%) 2(0.2%) 23(2%)
Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%)
Chi-Square Test=7.157a, p-value=.520
4.3.2.6 Educational Consideration
As far as education is concerned, among the total respondents (see Table-50) the highest
number of illiterate respondents accepted that they did not go through the manifestos of a
political party.
104
A significant number of graduate and post-graduate negate to read the manifestoes
of a political party. Likewise, a considerable number of secondary and higher secondary
school level votes responded in negative to read the manifestoes of a political party. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the
educational qualification and reading of the manifesto of a political party.
Table No. 50
Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting?
Educational Not at all No don‟t know To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Primary 27(2.4%) 22(2%) 9(.8%) 11(1%) 10(.9%) 79(7%)
Middle 15(1.3%) 30(2.7%) 16(1.4%) 22(2%) 6(.5%) 89(7.9%)
Matric 28(2.5%) 45(4%) 39(3.5%) 57(5.1%) 27(2.4%) 196(17.5%)
Intermediate 20(1.8%) 23(2%) 24(2.1%) 25(2.2%) 11(1%) 103(9.2%)
BA/BSc 30(2.7%) 45(4%) 39(3.5%) 45(4%) 22(2%) 181(16.1%)
MA/MSc 34(3%) 58(5.2%) 42(3.7%) 90(8%) 44(3.9%) 268(23.9%)
M.Phil 2(0.2%) 4(0.4%) 2(0.2%) 8(0.7%) 7(0.6%) 23(2%)
Illiterate 43(3.8%) 68(6.1%) 38(3.4%) 27(2.4%) 7(0.6%) 183(16.3%)
Total 199(17.7%) 295(26.3%) 209(18.6%) 285(25.4%) 134(11.9%) 1122(100%)
Chi-Square Test=89.216a, p-value=.000
4.3.2.7 Regional Consideration
In Table-51, among the respondents the highest ratio of the respondents of northern and
central and southern geographical regions denied to read the manifesto of a political party.
However, a significant number of northern, central and southern geographical regions
respondents were unfamiliar from the manifestoes.
A large number of respondents who belong to south, center and north said that they
read the manifestoes of political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the reading of the manifesto of a political
party and geographical region.
105
Table No. 51
Have you gone through the manifesto of political party, you have been supporting?
Geographical
Region
Not at all No Don‟t know To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
North 70 92 89 94 35 380
6.2% 8.2% 7.9% 8.4% 3.1% 33.9%
Center 69 108 43 94 46 360
6.1% 9.6% 3.8% 8.4% 4.1% 32.1%
South 60 95 77 97 53 382
5.3% 8.5% 6.9% 8.6% 4.7% 34%
Total 199 295 209 285 134 1122
17.7% 26.3% 18.6% 25.4% 11.9% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 21.921a, p-value=.000
4.3.3 Satisfaction from the Performance of Political Party
The third important parameter to identify the floating voter is satisfaction from the party
voted in the previous election. Soderlund (2008) in his research clearly pointed out that trust
on political party strengthens the number of loyal voters. He argued that the possibility of
vote switching was strongly influenced by the evaluations of the performance of the party
voted in the previous elections. Some voters disposed to the party they had previously voted
for if they thought that it had done a good job, and on the other hand, voters switch off that
political party if they considered that its performance is poor. On the basis of this argument,
we can identify that how many respondents are supporting the political parties voted in the
previous General Elections. The correlation of the different controlled variables (age,
gender, education, marital status, profession, geographical regions) with the dependent
variable (i.e., satisfaction from the performance of the party voted in 2013 General
Elections) and Chi-Square test is applied for analysis.
4.3.3.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned, in Table-52, a small number of the male respondents stated
that they are not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013. While a
considerable number of male respondents were uncertain about the satisfaction of the party
they voted. However, a large number of male respondents said that they are satisfied from
the political parties they voted in General Elections 2013.
106
Among the female respondents, a small quantity of female affirmed that they are
satisfied from the political parties they voted in General Elections 2013. A small number of
female were undecided that either they are satisfied or not. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is significant which shows an association between the gender and satisfaction of
the party performance in General Elections 2013.
Table No. 52
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Gender Not at all Not
satisfied
Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Male 90 (8%) 70(6.2%) 104(9.3%) 201(17.9%) 161(14.3%) 626(55.8%)
Female 74(6.6%) 62(5.5%) 109(9.7%) 162(14.4%) 89(7.9%) 496(44.2%)
Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=12.191a, p-value=.016
4.3.3.2 Age Consideration
Table-53 shows that some of adults and youngsters said that they are not satisfied from the
party they voted in General Elections 2013. Likewise, a meager number of middle and aged
respondents were not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013.
A large quantity of adults and youngster respondents showed their satisfaction from
the political party they voted in General Elections 2013. Moreover, a considerable number
of middle and old age respondents also affirmed that they are satisfied from the party they
voted in 2013 election. A major portion of adults and youngsters are supporters of PTI
therefore they show their satisfaction from PTI. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the age and satisfaction of the party
performance in General Elections 2013 (See Table-53).
Table No. 53
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Age Not at all Not
satisfied
Don‟t
know
to some
extent
to a large
extent
Total
18-23 38 (3.4%) 22(2%) 64(5.7%) 48(4.3%) 37(3.3%) 209(18.6%)
23-27 36(3.2%) 17(1.5%) 43(3.8%) 64(5.7%) 41(3.7%) 201(17.9%)
27-32 16(1.4%) 24(2.1%) 33(2.9%) 72(6.4%) 52(4.6%) 197(17.6%)
32-37 19(1.7%) 16(1.4%) 19(1.7%) 56(5%) 33(2.9%) 143(12.7%)
37-42 19(1.7%) 22(2%) 23(2%) 44(3.9%) 38(3.4%) 146(13%)
42-50 19(1.7%) 14(1.2%) 19(1.7%) 43(3.8%) 21(1.9%) 116(10.3%)
Above 50 17(1.5%) 17(1.5%) 12(1.1%) 36(3.2%) 28(2.5%) 110(9.8%)
Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 54.055a, p-value=.000
107
4.3.3.3 Professional Consideration
In terms of the professional affiliation of the respondents, in Table-54, among the
respondents, a significant number of the housewives were not satisfied of the party they
voted in General Elections 2013. However, some of the unemployed, government
employees, non-governments servants‟ respondents unsatisfied from the party they voted in
2013 election. Moreover, a meager portion of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers stated
that they were not satisfied of the party they voted in General Elections 2013.
Nonetheless, a large number of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers, housewives,
non-government and government servants affirmed their satisfaction from the party they
casted vote to in 2013 election. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which
shows an association between the profession and satisfaction of the party performance in
General Elections 2013.
Table No. 54
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Profession Not at all Not satisfied Don‟t
know
to some
extent
to a large extent Total
Business 23 (2%) 13(1.2%) 16(1.4%) 27(2.4%) 31(2.8%) 110(9.8%)
Daily wage 17(1.5%) 11(1%) 21(1.9%) 29(2.6%) 17(1.5%) 95(8.5%)
Government
Servant
27(2.4%) 26(2.3%) 34(3%) 80(7.1%) 46(4.1%) 213(19%)
Non-govt.
servant
22(2%) 10(0.9%) 19(1.7%) 63(5.6%) 37(3.3%) 151(13.5%)
Farming 11(1%) 8(0.7%) 9(0.8%) 22(2%) 28(2.5%) 78(7%)
Unemployed 30(2.7%) 24(2.1%) 41(3.7%) 51(4.5%) 31(2.8%) 177(15.8%)
house wife 34(3%) 40(3.6%) 73(6.5%) 91(8.1%) 60(5.3%) 298(26.6%)
Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 47.637a, p-value=.003
4.3.3.4 Economic Consideration
In the case of income a considerable number of lower class and those respondents who did
not mention their monthly income said that they are unsatisfied from the party they voted in
2013 polls. It is assumed that most of the lower income class people politically less aware
therefore they are always unsatisfied from the political parties they voted. It is also observed
that the lower income class have very weak political affiliation and they can easily change
their loyalties. Although, a small quantity of lower middle, middle and upper class stated
108
that they did not satisfy from the party they voted in General Elections 2013. Among the
respondents of different monthly income very marginal number among the respondents did
not satisfied from the performance of the party voted in General Elections 2013.
A significant number of lower, middle and upper income class respondents said that
they are satisfied from the party they voted in 2013 election. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is significant which shows an association between the income and satisfaction of
the party performance in General Elections 2013 (See Table No. 55).
Table No. 55
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Monthly Income Not at all Not satisfied Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Below10,000 43 (3.8%) 30(2.7%) 45(4%) 66(5.9%) 61(5.4%) 245(21.8%)
10000-20000 20(1.8%) 15(1.3%) 21(1.9%) 66(5.9%) 43(3.8%) 165(14.7%)
20000-30000 28(2.5%) 19(1.7%) 18(1.6%) 55(4.9%) 29(2.6%) 149(13.3%)
30000-40000 10(.9%) 10(0.9%) 14(1.2%) 26(2.3%) 13(1.2%) 73(6.5%)
40000-50000 8(0.7%) 5(0.4%) 8(0.7%) 18(1.6%) 12(1.1%) 51(4.5%)
Above 50000 5(0.4%) 6(0.5%) 13(1.2%) 13(1.2%) 15(1.3%) 52(4.6%)
Don‟t know 50(4.5%) 47(4.2%) 94(8.4%) 119(10.6%) 77(6.9%) 387(34.5%)
Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=34.234a, p-value=.081
4.3.3.5 Marital Status of the Respondents
In terms of the marital status of the respondents in Table-56, among the total respondents,
an important number of married respondents have a negative opinion about the political
party they voted in General Elections 2013. A few unmarried respondents responded that
they are not satisfied from that party voted in 2013 polls.
A large number of married and unmarried respondents reacted positively about the
party they voted in General Elections 2013. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the marital status and satisfaction of the
party performance in General Elections 2013.
109
Table No. 56
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Marital
Status
Not at all Not
satisfied
Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Married 95(8.5%) 87(7.8%) 120(10.7%) 231(20.6%) 176(15.7%) 709(63.2%)
Single 63(5.6%) 42(3.7%) 90(8%) 126(11.2%) 69(6.1%) 390(34.8%)
Widow 6(0.5%) 3(0.3%) 3(0.3%) 6(0.5%) 5(0.4%) 23(2%)
Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=15.423a, p-value=.050
4.3.3.6 Educational Consideration
As for as education is concerned Table-57 shows that, among the total respondents a major
share of graduate and post-graduate respondents were not satisfied with the party they voted
in General Elections 2013. Although some of the primary, secondary and higher secondary
school level respondents dissatisfied from the party they voted in General Elections 2013.
Moreover, a meager portion of illiterate respondents were not satisfied from the party they
voted in 2013 polls.
Nonetheless, a significant number of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate
and post-graduate and illiterate respondents showed their satisfaction for the party they
voted in 2013 elections. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which
shows no association between educational qualification and satisfaction of the party
performance in General Elections 2013.
Table No. 57
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Educational
qualification
Not at all Not satisfied Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Primary 18(1.6%) 9(.8%) 13(1.2%) 25(2.2%) 14(1.2%) 79(7%)
Middle 16(1.4%) 10(.9%) 19(1.7%) 20(1.8%) 24(2.1%) 89(7.9%)
Matric 22(2%) 26(2.3%) 36(3.2%) 63(5.6%) 49(4.4%) 196(17.5%)
Intermediate 19(1.7%) 14(1.2%) 22(2%) 36(3.2%) 12(1.1%) 103(9.2%)
BA/BSc 25(2.2%) 27(2.4%) 35(3.1%) 58(5.2%) 36(3.2%) 181(16.1%)
MA/MSc 37(3.3%) 25(2.2%) 41(3.7%) 94(8.4%) 71(6.3%) 268(23.9%)
M.Phil 6(0.5%) 1(0.1%) 2(0.2%) 10(0.9%) 4(0.4%) 23(2%)
Illiterate 21(1.9%) 20(1.8%) 45(4%) 57(5.1%) 40(3.6%) 183(16.3%)
Total 164(14.6%) 132(11.8%) 213(19%) 363(32.4%) 250(22.3%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=37.099a, p-value=.117
110
4.3.3.7 Regional Consideration
In Table-58 among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
majority of the respondents of southern region were not satisfied from the party they voted
in General Elections 2013.28
Apart from that some of the respondents of northern and
central geographical zones were not satisfied from the party they voted in General Elections
2013. A small portion of the respondents of southern, central and northern regions were
undecided.
A considerable number of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions
satisfied from the party they voted in 2013 polls. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the respondent
and satisfaction of the party performance in General Elections 2013.
Table No. 58
Are you satisfied from the party which you voted in 2013 general elections?
Geograp
hical
Region
Not at all Not
satisfied
Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a
large
extent
Total
North 55 42 70 143 70 380
4.9% 3.7% 6.2% 12.7% 6.2% 33.9%
Center 48 44 81 124 63 360
4.3% 3.9% 7.2% 11.1% 5.6% 32.1%
South 61 46 62 96 117 382
5.4% 4.1% 5.5% 8.6% 10.4% 34%
Total 164 132 213 363 250 1122
14.6% 11.8% 19% 32.4% 22.3% 100%
Pearson Chi-Square= 33.172a, p-value=.000
4.3.4 Lack of Interest in Party Politics
Edward C. Dreyer (1971) in his research work argued that political information is very
important determinant for a voter to decide about the vote choice. Political parties are using
different tools for the political information of the voter during the election campaign.
Dreyer argued that in the United States media specialists of political parties have been
involved in the election campaign. Modern technological innovations in the communication
28
The results of 2018 election were completely different from previous election. In southern region JUI failed
to secure its previous position and PTI became the wining political party. Therefore we can say that voters
of southern areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were unsatisfied from the JUI-F they voted in 2013 elections.
111
industry have brought new developments in the character and contents of the mass
communication. It is difficult for a candidate to communicate with all the voters of the
constituency, therefore, media specialist use media as a source of political information
(Dreyer, 1971). The contesting candidates in their speeches during election campaign on
print, electronic and social media make attentive the voters about the local and international
politics. Those people who are more in touch with such kind of media they are more
politically aware than those who are avoiding the use of media (Graham, 1974). In
developing societies, majority of the people belong to lower or lower middle class;
therefore, their literacy ratio is low. Due to illiteracy and poverty majority of the voters did
not use any kind of media. However, social media that consist of Facebook, Twitter,
Instagram, WhatsApp etc are playing a significant role in political awareness. In Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, a small number of voters are using media for political nourishment.
Therefore, the contesting candidates are trying to inject the political ideas into the voters
through public speeches in election meeting and other party meetings. Another source of
communication is party activists that are available in each and every village and towns of
the constituency. The party activists discuss the party politics among common voters. They
spread information regarding manifestoes and party programme among the common voters
and criticizing the other political parties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the only best source of
political awareness is contesting candidates‟ speeches. Those speeches infiltrate the party
message from one person to another person of the community. To measure the political
awareness of the voters researcher asked a question from the respondents that either he/she
participate in the party meetings during the election or not? This variable is correlated with
gender, age, profession, education, marital status, income level and geographical region.
The Chi-square test results of different variables are given below.
112
4.3.4.1 Gender Consideration
In terms of gender among the total respondents, the majority of female responded that they
did not participate in party meetings. Some of male respondents also did not participate in
the party meetings. On the other hand, majority of the male respondents stated that they
participate in party meetings. A small number of female respondents also participate in
party meetings. The Pakhtun society is a male dominant society. There is a common
perception that only men can actively participate in politics and women are responsible for
household (family). Therefore we can see rarely any female political activists in election
campaign. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an
association between the gender and participation in party meetings (See Table-59).
Table No. 59 Are you participating in party meetings?
Gender Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Male 113 (10.1%) 144(12.8%) 34(3%) 223(19.9%) 112(10%) 626(55.8%)
Female 176(15.7%) 179(16%) 22(2%) 78(7%) 41(3.7%) 496(44.2%)
Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=1.093E2a, p-value=.000
4.3.4.2 Age Consideration
Some of the adolescents and youngsters responded that they did not participate in party
meetings. Apart from that some middle and old age respondents asserted that they did not
participate in party meetings. However, a major portion of adults, youth, middle age and
aged respondents affirmed that they are regularly participating in party meetings. The P-
value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the
age and participation in party meetings (See Table-60).
113
Table No. 60
Are you participating in party meetings?
Age Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
18-23 50(4.5%) 60(5.3%) 10(0.9%) 62(5.5%) 27(2.4%) 209(18.6%)
23-27 54(4.8%) 67(6.0%) 8(0.7%) 43(3.8%) 29(2.6%) 201(17.9%)
27-32 48(4.3%) 56(5%) 10(0.9%) 64(5.7%) 19(1.7%) 197(17.6%)
32-37 36(3.2%) 38(3.4%) 10(0.9%) 39(3.5%) 20(1.8%) 143(12.7%)
37-42 42(3.7%) 41(3.7%) 8(0.7%) 36(3.2%) 19(1.7%) 146(13%)
42-50 35(3.1%) 35(3.1%) 4(0.4%) 29(2.6%) 13(1.2%) 116(10.3%)
Above 50 24(2.1%) 26(2.3%) 6(0.5%) 28(2.5%) 26(2.3%) 110(9.8%)
Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 24.430a, p-value=.437
4.3.4.3 Professional Consideration
In terms of the profession, among the total respondents the majority of housewives said that
they do not participate in the party meetings. Followed by some of government servants,
unemployed, non-government servants and daily wagers responded that they do not
participate in the party meetings. Moreover, among the total respondents, a small portion of
farmers and businessmen refuse to participate in party meetings.
Conversely, some of businessmen, farmers, government and non-government
servants, housewives and jobless respondents accepted that they participate in the party
meetings regularly. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an
association between the profession and participation in party meetings (See Table No. 61).
Table No. 61
Are you participating in party meetings?
Profession
Not at all
No Don‟t know To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Business 19(1.7%) 20(1.8%) 10(0.9%) 34(3.0%) 27(2.4%) 110(9.8%)
Daily wage 21(1.9%) 29(2.6%) 4(0.4%) 29(2.6%) 12(1.1%) 95(8.5%)
Government
Servant
61(5.4%) 59(5.3%) 9(0.8%) 57(5.1%) 27(2.4%) 213(19.0%)
Non-govt.
servant
35(3.1%) 48(4.3%) 6(0.5%) 52(4.6%) 10(.9%) 151(13.5%)
Farming 12(1.1%) 15(1.3%) 5(0.4%) 27(2.4%) 19(1.7%) 78(7%)
Unemployed 36(3.2%) 50(4.5%) 5(0.4%) 60(5.3%) 26(2.3%) 177(15.8%)
House wife 105(9.4%) 102(9.1%) 17(1.5%) 42(3.7%) 32(2.9%) 298(26.6%)
Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=88.809a, p-value=.000
114
4.3.4.4 Economic Consideration
As far as income is concerned, among the total respondents majority of the respondents who
did not know or did not mention their monthly income said that they do not participate in
the party meetings. Some of the lower and lower middle, middle class respondents refuse to
participate in the party meetings. Although a small portion of upper class among the total
respondents expressed disengagement to the party meetings.
Whereas, some of the lower, middle and upper class respondents stated that they
regularly participate in the party meetings. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the income and participation in party
meetings (See Table No. 62).
Table No. 62
Are you participating in party meetings?
Monthly income Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent Total
Below 10,000 46 (4.1%) 81(7.2%) 12(1.1%) 63(5.6%) 43(3.8%) 245(21.8%)
10000-20,000 39(3.5%) 43(3.8%) 5(0.4%) 51(4.5%) 27(2.4%) 165(14.7%)
20000-30,000 36(3.2%) 36(3.2%) 15(1.3%) 47(4.2%) 15(1.3%) 149(13.3%)
30000-40,000 22(2%) 22(2%) 4(0.4%) 18(1.6%) 7(0.6%) 73(6.5%)
40000-50,000 19(1.7%) 11(1%) 1(0.1%) 14(1.2%) 6(0.5%) 51(4.5%)
Above 50,000 6(0.5%) 13(1.2%) 4(0.4%) 20(1.8%) 9(0.8%) 52(4.6%)
Don‟t know 121(10.8%) 117(10.4%) 15(1.3%) 88(7.8%) 46(4.1%) 387(34.5%)
Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 48.117a, p-value=.002
4.3.4.5 Marital Status of the Respondents
In Table-63, among the total respondents, majority of the married respondents expressed
disengagement to party meetings. Among the total respondents, some of the respondents
whose marital status is single said that they do not participate in the party meetings.
Nonetheless, a quantity of married and unmarried respondents expressed their
involvement in the party meetings regularly. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows no association between the marital status and participation in party
meetings.
115
Table No. 63
Are you participating in party meetings?
Marital
status
Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Married 189 (16.8%) 207(18.4%) 36(3.2%) 181(16.1%) 96(8.6%) 709(63.2%)
Single 93(8.3%) 113(10.1%) 18(1.6%) 115(10.2%) 51(4.5%) 390(34.8%)
Widow 7(0.6%) 3(0.3%) 2(0.2%) 5(0.4%) 6(0.5%) 23(2%)
Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square= 8.156a, p-value=.418
4.3.4.6 Educational Consideration
However education is concerned in Table-64, among the total respondents a large number
of graduate and post-graduate level respondents shows their disengagement in the political
parties meetings. Likewise, some of the primary, secondary and higher secondary school
level respondents said that they did not participate in the political party meetings. Lastly, a
large amount of illiterate respondents denied participating in political party meetings. On
the other hand, some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post-
graduate level respondents shows involvement in the political parties meetings. While a
meager portion of illiterate respondents also stated that they participate in party meetings.
The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between
the educational qualification and participation in party meetings.
Table No. 64
Are you participating in party meetings?
Educational
qualification
Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent Total
Primary 31(2.8%) 18(1.6%) 5(.4%) 14(1.2%) 11(1%) 79(7%)
Middle 19(1.7%) 32(2.9%) 4(.4%) 20(1.8%) 14(1.2%) 89(7.9%)
Matric 30(2.7%) 43(3.8%) 16(1.4%) 67(6%) 40(3.6%) 196(17.5%)
Intermediate 28(2.5%) 26(2.3%) 9(0.8%) 26(2.3%) 14(1.2%) 103(9.2%)
BA/BSc 44(3.9%) 57(5.1%) 4(0.4%) 54(4.8%) 22(2%) 181(16.1%)
MA/MSc 67(6%) 73(6.5%) 7(0.6%) 89(7.9%) 32(2.9%) 268(23.9%)
M.Phil 8(0.7%) 8(0.7%) 3(0.3%) 3(0.3%) 1(0.1%) 23(2%)
Illiterate 62(5.5%) 66(5.9%) 8(0.7%) 28(2.5%) 19(1.7%) 183(16.3%)
Total 289(25.8%) 323(28.8%) 56(5.0%) 301(26.8%) 153(13.6%) 1122(100%)
Pearson Chi-Square=80.076a, p-value=.000
4.3.4.7 Regional Consideration
As far as regions are concerned in Table-65, among the total respondents a significant
number of northern, central and southern geographical regions respondents said that they
116
did not participate in political party meetings. However, some of northern, central and
southern regions respondents expressed involvement in political parties meetings.
Furthermore, a small number of respondents of different geographical zones attitude
towards the party meetings was unclear. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the geographical region and participation in
party meetings.
Table No. 65
Are you participating in party meetings?
Geographical
Region
Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
North 100 116 18 98 48 380
8.9% 10.3% 1.6% 8.7% 4.3% 33.9%
Center 122 101 11 87 39 360
10.9% 9% 1% 7.8% 3.5% 32.1%
South 67 106 27 116 66 382
6% 9.4% 2.4% 10.3% 5.9% 34%
Total 289 323 56 301 153 1122
25.8% 28.8% 5% 26.8% 13.6% 100%
Pearson Chi-Square=34.922a, p-value=.000
Summary
During the past decade, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa elections results have been fluctuated. This
trend has been accounted by the presence of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In this
chapter, the researcher used a multi-variables scale to identify the floating voters. According
to the first variable a considerable number of respondents said that they decide to vote one
day prior or on polling day. Those voters who decide one day before or on election day
assumed late deciders, they can changing their political affiliation and switch to other
political parties easily. Whereas, those respondents who decide to vote one month earlier
from election are considered sturdy party voters. Secondly a major portion of the voters
responded that they did not read the manifesto of the political party. Those voters who are
reading and knowing about the party manifesto are immensely political aware rather than
those voters who are not reading the party manifesto. It is presumed that those voters who
are regularly reading their party manifestos are also committed party members.
117
Thirdly, a significant number of respondents said that they do not satisfy from the
party voted in General Elections 2013. Satisfaction from the party policies provides strength
to the party affiliation of an individual. Moreover, satisfaction of the party also presented
trust on the political system and party policies. Those respondents who are satisfy from the
present party policies means they will support the same party in the next election.
Conversely, those respondents who are not satisfy from the party policies and programs
maybe they switch to any other political party in the next election.
However, majority of the respondents expressed their disengagements to participate
in the party meetings. It is assumed that those respondents who are participating in the party
meeting have a high level of political interest. Political involvement and political interest
have a decisive role in the individual political decision making. Those people who have
interest in politics supporting the political parties, while those individuals who have lack of
interest in politics are annoying to strongly associate with a political party. On the basis of
these findings we can estimate that there is considerable ratio of floating voters in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
118
CHAPTER–5
PARTISANSHIP MODEL IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
5.1 INTRODUCTION
Party loyal voters have strong affiliation with a political party. Campbell et al. (1960) and
Fiorina (1981) argued that the role of party identification holds a significant place in the
study of elections and voting behaviour. The psychosocial model of voting behaviour based
on the three scholarly works of Michigan University. These studies are considered the
foundation of Psychological Model. The first research study conducted in 1948 U.S.
Presidential elections „The People Elect a President‟ by Campbell and Kahn (1952). In
1952‟s Campbell, Gurin and Miller (1954) conducted another study „The Voter Decides‟;
and 1956‟s, „The American Voter‟, authored by Campbell, Converse Miller and Stokes
(1960). The proponents of Psychological Model divided the party identification into two
broad categories „Traditionalist‟ and „Revisionist‟ schools (Bartels et al., 2011). Bartels
argued that „Traditionalists‟ opines that party identification is psychological attachment
serve as a causal force that formed voters‟ preferences (Bartels et al., 2011).
Campbell et al. (1960) illustrated that group and party identification are
interconnected. Green et al. (2002) connected the nature of party identification with
ethnicity and religion. Numerous other traditionalist scholars believed parents influence the
political choice (political party) of children, because political attitudes can easily
transmitted from parents to children in home (Achen, 1992; Franklin and Jackson 1983;
Jennings and Niemi, 1968). However, „Revisionists‟ opined that party identification is a
continuous changing process that can be easily influenced by short-term political actors
(Fiorina, 1981). Those short-term political actors are candidates‟ evaluation and
retrospective evaluation of the performance (Markus and Converse, 1979; Fiorina, 1981;
Brody and Rothenberg, 1988). Franklin and Jackson (1983) and Franklin (1984) studies
identified that issue proximity is also a short-term political force that can influence party
119
identification. Fiorina (1981) argued that personal experience and retrospective evaluation
of party‟s performance is also an important element of party identification.
On the other hand, it is also argued that party identification is an endogenous factor
influenced by local and international issues. Therefore stability in party identification is
directly proportional to the extent in which short-term forces influence current party
identification as well as the stability of such factors (Bartels et al, 2011). Moreover, there
are different opinions about the nature and measurement of partisanship. One argument is
that, the socialization process determines the basis, direction and strength of partisanship.
Alford et al. (2005) Hatemi et al. (2007) Tesser (1993) argued that inheritance and socio-
political factors play a key role in shaping political behaviour of an individual. Settle et al.
(2008) and Cesarini et al. (2008) pointed out the role of political orientations and trust on
political system in determining party affiliation of an individual. Partisanship enabling
voters to adapt themselves to the new political system, evaluate political actors, and make
political choices. However, Dalton and Weldon (2005) figured out that the development of
party affiliation also indicate a transformation in mass loyalties from the individual
politicians (Personal influence), that created the new political system to more durable party
organizations.
In the case of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, voters supported different political parties in
different elections. In 1970, PPP led Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto government came into power with
a socialist agenda. During the election campaign, PPP slogan was „Roti, Kapra, Makan‟
(bread, clothes and house) that was more attractive and appealing to the voters. Hence,
socialism was flourishing in USSR and other countries of the world with the agenda of
nationalization. Later on, when PPP came into power, it implemented land reforms and
nationalization program in Pakistan (Gopinath, 1975:79). PPP reforms had built a strong
vote bank among the middle and lower class in rural and urban areas of Pakistan generally
and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particularly. However, voters who had religious leaning
120
supported the religious political parties, even though, the ethnic tendencies attract toward
the ethnic political parties. Moreover, several political parties vote bank growing up in
different elections. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa different political parties have their vote bank.
During survey some questions were asked from respondents regarding party identification.
The questions regarding party identification were correlated with gender, age, education,
profession and geographical regions. The correlation of both variables provides a sketch of
partisanship in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
5.2 POLITICAL PARTIES MEMBERSHIP IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
Party membership is an important channel for political participation. Scarrow (2017) argue
that strong party membership helped political parties to get a victory in elections. Therefore,
political parties participate in elections. The Voters political affiliation is also changing with
the passage of time. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa long-established political parties experienced a
quick decline in its membership, while the new political parties e.g., Pakistan Tehreek-i-
Insaf (PTI) memberships moving up. However, ANP, JUI, JI, PPP, PML-N, QWP etc. also
have a significant membership in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. To identify the
respondents‟ political affiliation and party membership a question was asked that “Do you
have party membership? The variable is correlated with controlled variables (gender, age,
profession, education, marital status, language and geographical region).
5.2.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, a large number of male
respondents and female respondents said that they have political parties‟ membership.
However, some of male and female respondents accepted that they didn‟t have any political
party membership. Women are comparatively less aware about the political parties‟
membership in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, men have more understanding of political
parties‟ membership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an
association between the gender and party membership (See Table No. 66).
121
Table No. 66
Do you have a political party membership?
Gender No Yes Don‟t Know Total
Male 197 398 31 626
17.6% 35.5% 2.8% 55.8%
Female 212 250 34 496
18.9% 22.3% 3% 44.2%
Total 409 648 65 1122
36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100%
Chi-Square=19.693a, p-value=.000
5.2.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories, a significant number of adults,
youth, middle age and aged respondents stated that they are members of the political parties.
Contrary to that, a small number of adult, youth, middle age and aged respondents denied
that they have membership of any political party. It is observed that among the respondents
the middle and old age respondents‟ ratio of party membership is greater than young age
respondents. In fact the old age respondents are more experienced and politically aware than
youth. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association
between the age and party membership (See Table No. 67).
Table No. 67
Do you have a political party membership?
Age No Yes Don‟t Know Total
18-23 71 130 8 209
6.3% 11.6% 0.7% 18.6%
23-27 75 112 14 201
6.7% 10% 1.2% 17.9%
27-32 75 111 11 197
6.7% 9.9% 1% 17.6%
32-37 56 79 8 143
5% 7% 0.7% 12.7%
37-42 54 83 9 146
4.8% 7.4% 0.8% 13.0%
42-50 36 71 9 116
3.2% 6.3% 0.8% 10.3%
Above 50 42 62 6 110
3.7% 5.5% 0.5% 9.8%
Total 409 648 65 1122
36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100%
Chi-Square=5.964a, p-value=.918
122
5.2.3 Income Consideration
In terms of income, among the total respondents, majority of the respondents of lower
income class and middle class accepted that they have party membership. However, a minor
portion of middle upper and upper class affirmed that they have party membership. A large
number of respondents who did not mention their income responded that they have
membership of political party.
Contrary to that, some of the respondents of lower class and a large number of the
respondents who did not mention their income denied that they are member of any political
party. A small number of respondents of middle and upper class denied that they are
member any political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which
shows an association between the income and party membership (See Table No. 68).
Table No. 68
Do you have a political party membership?
Monthly
income No Yes
Don‟t
Know
Total
below10,000 83 147 15 245
7.4% 13.1% 1.3% 21.8%
10000-20000 52 108 5 165
4.6% 9.6% 0.4% 14.7%
20000-30000 71 69 9 149
6.3% 6.1% 0.8% 13.3%
30000-40000 31 35 7 73
2.8% 3.1% 0.6% 6.5%
40000-50000 18 32 1 51
1.6% 2.9% 0.1% 4.5%
Above 50000 12 38 2 52
1.1% 3.4% 0.2% 4.6%
Don‟t know 142 219 26 387
12.7% 19.5% 2.3% 34.5%
Total 409 648 65 1122
36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=25.161a, p-value=.014
5.2.4 Marital Status Consideration
In terms of marital status, among the total respondents, a huge number of married and
unmarried respondents said that they have political party membership. On the other hand,
some of the married and unmarried accepted that they didn‟t have a membership of any
political parties. However, a minute portion of married, unmarried and widows simply said
123
that they don‟t know anything about party membership. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the marital status and party
membership (See Table No.69).
Table No. 69
Do you have a political party membership?
Marital status No Yes Don‟t Know Total
Married 261 412 36 709
23.3% 36.7% 3.2% 63.2%
Unmarried 141 222 27 390
12.6% 19.8% 2.4% 34.8%
Widow 7 14 2 23
0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 2.0%
Total 409 648 65 1122
36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 2.185a, p-value=.702
5.2.5 Educational Consideration
In terms of education, among the total respondents, some of the primary, secondary and
higher secondary school level voters said that they have party membership. A large number
of graduate and post-graduate level respondents were party members. A major portion of
illiterate respondents also have party membership.
A minor portion of primary, secondary and higher secondary school, graduates and
post-graduate level respondents denied any political party membership. While a significant
number of illiterate respondents said that they haven‟t party membership. Illiterate people
are comparatively less politically aware than the literate citizens. Therefore the ratio of
illiterate respondents‟ party membership is lower than literate respondents. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the
educational qualification and party membership (See Table No.70).
124
Table No. 70
Do you have a political party membership?
Educational
Qualification No Yes
Don‟t
Know Total
Primary 29 41 9 79
2.6% 3.7% 0.8% 7%
Middle 26 58 5 89
2.3% 5.2% 0.4% 7.9%
Matric 55 126 15 196
4.9% 11.2% 1.3% 17.5%
Intermediate 41 54 8 103
3.7% 4.8% 0.7% 9.2%
BA/BSc 70 101 10 181
6.2% 9% 0.9% 16.1%
MA/MSc 100 164 4 268
8.9% 14.6% 0.4% 23.9%
M. Phil 10 12 1 23
0.9% 1.1% 0.1% 2.0%
Illiterate 78 92 13 183
7% 8.2% 1.2% 16.3%
Total 409 648 65 1122
36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=29.090a, p-value=.010
5.2.6 Regional Consideration
Among the total respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in
Table-71, a large number of the respondents of northern, central and southern geographical
regions accepted that they have affiliation with a political party.
However, some of the respondents of central region and northern region said that
they did not belong to any political party. While a small number of respondents of southern
region denied that they have the membership of any political party. The P-value<0.05 of the
Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical
region and party membership.
Table No. 71
Do you have membership with a political party?
Geographical Regions No Yes Don‟t Know Total
North 147 225 8 380
13.1% 20.1% 0.7% 33.9%
Center 141 197 22 360
12.6% 17.6% 2% 32.1%
South 121 226 35 382
10.8% 20.1% 3.1% 34%
Total 409 648 65 1122
36.5% 57.8% 5.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=20.951a, p-value= .000
125
5.3 RESPONDENTS PERCEPTION ABOUT PARTY AFFILIATION/
ATTACHMENT
Party affiliation is an important component of democracy, because political Parties provide
a landscape to the democratic system. Dalton and Weldon (2005) argued that positive
perception regarding the democratization process is growing party affiliation. To know the
respondents' opinion about political parties‟ membership a question was asked that, “Vote
should be given on the basis of party affiliation?” The response of the voters is correlated
with gender, age, education, income, marital status, geographical regions.
5.3.1 Gender Consideration
In terms of gender, among the total respondents, majority of male and female respondents
agreed that vote should be given on the basis of political party affiliation. However, some of
the male and female disagree and denied that vote should be given on the basis of party
affiliation. Moreover, a minor portion of male and female did not know that vote should be
given on the basis of party affiliation or not. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party
affiliation (See Table No. 72).
Table No. 72
Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation.
Gender Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t know Agree Totally
Agree
Total
Male 103 112 47 277 87 626
9.2% 10% 4.2% 24.7% 7.8% 55.8%
Female 58 88 106 199 45 496
5.2% 7.8% 9.4% 17.7% 4% 44.2%
Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122
14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=49.963a, p-value=.000
5.3.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age groups in Table-72, a large number of adults,
youth, middle and old age respondents said that vote should be given on the basis of party
affiliation. Contrary to that, some of the adults and youngsters considered that party
126
affiliation is not important for a voter. A minor portion of middle and old age respondents
considered that it is not important for a voter to cast vote on the basis of party affiliation.
Age is playing an important role in the growth of political maturity of an individual.
Therefore, the highest ratio of senior and middle age respondents support the perception to
support party identification in election. The Chi-square test provides a highly significant p-
value. The p-value<0.05 shows that there is an association between the age of the
respondents and party affiliation (See Table No. 73).
Table No. 73
Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation?
Age Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Totally
Agree
Total
18-23 37 35 23 96 18 209
3.3% 3.1% 2.0% 8.6% 1.6% 18.6%
23-27 38 41 32 63 27 201
3.4% 3.7% 2.9% 5.6% 2.4% 17.9%
27-32 24 39 24 92 18 197
2.1% 3.5% 2.1% 8.2% 1.6% 17.6%
32-37 29 16 25 60 13 143
2.6% 1.4% 2.2% 5.3% 1.2% 12.7%
37-42 11 33 21 57 24 146
1% 2.9% 1.9% 5.1% 2.1% 13.0%
42-50 10 19 19 55 13 116
0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 4.9% 1.2% 10.3%
Above
50
12 17 9 53 19 110
1.1% 1.5% 0.8% 4.7% 1.7% 9.8%
Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122
14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=50.025a, p-value=.001
5.3.3 Professional Consideration
Table-74 shows that among the total respondents, some of the businessmen, daily wagers,
non-government servants, farmers and jobless respondents considered party affiliation
important for vote casting. However, the majority of government servants and housewives
were favouring to vote a party.
On the other hand, a small portion of the business community and farmers argue that
vote should be given to a political party. Nonetheless, a significant number of government
employees, non-government organizations employees, jobless and housewives believed that
party affiliation is not important for the voters. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
127
highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents
and party affiliation.
Table No. 74
Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation?
Profession Extremely
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Totally
Agree
Total
Business 18 22 12 46 12 110
1.6% 2% 1.1% 4.1% 1.1% 9.8%
daily wage 8 14 16 49 8 95
0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 4.4% 0.7% 8.5%
Government Servant 41 42 15 80 35 213
3.7% 3.7% 1.3% 7.1% 3.1% 19.0%
Non-government
servant
29 28 10 65 19 151
2.6% 2.5% 0.9% 5.8% 1.7% 13.5%
Farming 6 9 9 47 7 78
0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 4.2% 0.6% 7%
Unemployed 30 38 15 67 27 177
2.7% 3.4% 1.3% 6% 2.4% 15.8%
Housewives 29 47 76 122 24 298
2.6% 4.2% 6.8% 10.9% 2.1% 26.6%
Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122
14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=90.218a, p-value=.000
5.3.4 Income Consideration
To keep the income of respondents under consideration, a huge number of the lower class
and those respondents who did not mention their monthly income argued that vote should
be given on the basis of party affiliation. Although some of the respondents of lower
middle, middle, upper middle and upper income class were in favour of the party affiliation.
Conversely, among the total respondents, a minute number of middle and upper
income class disagree to vote on the basis of party affiliation. Moreover, some of the poor
and lower middle class and those respondents who did not mention their monthly income
denied voting a candidate on the basis of party affiliation. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of
the respondents and party affiliation (See Table No. 75).
128
Table No. 75
Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation?
Monthly income Extremely
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Totally
Agree
Total
below 10,000 29 32 27 122 35 245
2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 10.9% 3.1% 21.8%
10000-20000 34 32 17 66 16 165
3% 2.9% 1.5% 5.9% 1.4% 14.7%
20000-30000 25 40 14 50 20 149
2.2% 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 1.8% 13.3%
30000-40000 17 13 7 29 7 73
1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 2.6% 0.6% 6.5%
40000-50000 11 8 4 25 3 51
1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 4.5%
Above 50000 5 7 2 23 15 52
0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 2% 1.3% 4.6%
Don‟t know 40 68 82 161 36 387
3.6% 6.1% 7.3% 14.3% 3.2% 34.5%
Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122
14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 80.461a, p-value=.000
5.3.6 Educational Consideration
In terms of education, among the total respondents, a large number of secondary school,
graduate and post-graduate level respondents agree to vote a candidate on the basis of party
affiliation. Even though, some of the primary school level and illiterate respondents said
that voters should be given to the party. Contrary, some of primary, secondary school,
graduate and post-graduate and illiterate respondents were against the party affiliation. The
P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between the educational qualification of the respondents and party affiliation (See Table
No.76).
129
Table No. 76
Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation?
Education Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t know Agree Totally
Agree
Total
Primary 10 13 17 32 7 79
0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 2.9% 0.6% 7.0%
Middle 11 16 15 38 9 89
1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 3.4% 0.8% 7.9%
Matric 13 23 28 106 26 196
1.2% 2.0% 2.5% 9.4% 2.3% 17.5%
Intermediat
e
14 19 13 39 18 103
1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 3.5% 1.6% 9.2%
BA/BSc 35 38 16 74 18 181
3.1% 3.4% 1.4% 6.6% 1.6% 16.1%
MA/MSc 56 56 14 102 40 268
5.0% 5% 1.2% 9.1% 3.6% 23.9%
M.Phil 9 6 2 6 0 23
0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 2.0%
Illiterate 13 29 48 79 14 183
1.2% 2.6% 4.3% 7.0% 1.2% 16.3%
Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122
14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 1.090E2a, p-value=.000
5.3.7 Regional Consideration
A large number of the respondents of southern geographical region agree to vote on the
basis of party affiliation. Although some of the respondents of central and northern region
were in favour of party affiliation. Contrary to that, among the total respondents, numerous
respondents of central and northern geographical regions deprived of party affiliation.
However, in southern region there was a minor portion of respondents who did not support
party affiliation. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows
an association between the geographical region of the respondents and party affiliation (See
Table No. 77).
Table No.77
Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation?
Geographical
Region
Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t know Agree Totally Agree Total
North 72 73 36 148 51 380
6.4% 6.5% 3.2% 13.2% 4.5% 33.9%
Center 49 75 72 137 27 360
4.4% 6.7% 6.4% 12.2% 2.4% 32.1%
South 40 52 45 191 54 382
3.6% 4.6% 4% 17% 4.8% 34%
Total 161 200 153 476 132 1122
14.3% 17.8% 13.6% 42.4% 11.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=48.412a, p-value=.000
130
5.4 PARTY LEADER VERSUS POLITICAL PARTY
As a result of massive political and social changes occurred over the last seventy (70) years,
electoral politics in Pakistan has remained largely a family enterprise. A small number of
families continue to dominate Pakistani political parties (Mushtaq et al., 2013). The theme
of the focus of power around leadership in the democratic political system is the old one. In
fact in developing societies party leaders occupy a central place in democratic setup (Leduc,
2001; Marsh, 1993; Cross and Blais, 2012:128). In Pakistan, each political party is
considered the property of a particular family. Likewise, Pakistan Muslim League-N to
Nawaz Sharif family, Pakistan Peoples Party to Bhutto family, Awami National Party to
Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan (Bacha Khan) family, Qawmi Watan Party to Aftab Ahmad
Khan Sherapo family and Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam-F to Maulana Mufti Mehmood family and
so on. The overall sketch of the politics in Pakistan generally and particularly in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa is dominated by a few personalities. The prominent political personalities in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, Asfandyar Wali Khan, Alhaj
Ghulam Bilour, Akram Khan Durrani and Saifullah Brothers etc.
Maurice Duverge argued that in democracies, political parties generate „political
elites‟ and carry on the campaign to win elections. The main objectives of the political
parties are to articulate the public opinion and aggregate public interest (Duverge, 1987:
23). But in Pakistan, the interventions of dictatorial regimes in different time disturb the
democratic process. As a result political parties could not fulfill the democratic values and
confined to the personality-oriented politics. Another important aspect of the political
parties‟ failure is forced exclusion of different political parties and their leadership during
martial law regimes. The major examples are Public Representatives Office Disqualification
Order (PRODA), Elective Bodies Disqualification Order (EBDO) and 58 (2)b etc. On the
other hand, political parties trying to grow up and play its role in the political development
131
of the country and as a result of that the ratio of political parties‟ membership growing up in
different elections.
In this part of the chapter, the researcher is trying to locate the respondents‟ opinion
concerning the leadership and political party. A question asked from the respondents about
their political party and leader. The answer of the respondents is correlated with controlled
variables (i.e., gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions).
5.4.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned in Table-78, among the total respondents, a large number of
male and female respondents argued that they vote for the party, not to the leader of the
party. However, some of the male respondents and female respondents disagreed to support
party rather than leadership. Moreover, a minor portion of the male and female respondents‟
had a vague response. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party support.
Table No. 78
If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the party then?
Gender No Yes Don‟t know Total
Male 223 370 33 626
19.9% 33% 2.9% 55.8%
Female 168 269 59 496
15% 24% 5.3% 44.2%
Total 391 639 92 1122
34.8% 57% 8.2% 100%
Chi-Square test=16.204a, p-value=.000
5.4.2 Age Consideration
In terms of age, among the total respondents in Table-79, some of the adults, youth, middle
and old age respondents believed that they are supporting the political party rather than the
leader of the party. In opposition among the total respondents, various young age
respondents disagree to support a political party. While a meager number of middle and old
age respondents disagree with rest of respondents regarding the support of the political
132
party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the age of the respondents and party support.
Table No. 79
If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the
party then?
Age No Yes Don‟t know Total
18-23 78 112 19 209
7% 10.0% 1.7% 18.6%
23-27 73 114 14 201
6.5% 10.2% 1.2% 17.9%
27-32 71 110 16 197
6.3% 9.8% 1.4% 17.6%
32-37 41 87 15 143
3.7% 7.8% 1.3% 12.7%
37-42 47 87 12 146
4.2% 7.8% 1.1% 13.0%
42-50 43 64 9 116
3.8% 5.7% 0.8% 10.3%
Above 50 38 65 7 110
3.4% 5.8% 0.6% 9.8%
Total 391 639 92 1122
34.8% 57% 8.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 5.742a, p-value=.929
5.4.3 Professional Consideration
In Table-80, among the total respondents, majority of government employees, non-
government servants and housewives argued that they support a political party rather than
their leadership. Whereas, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, farmers and unemployed
believed that they vote for a political party regardless of the party leader.
However, a minor portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government employees, non-
government servants and farmers disagree to support the party leadership. Some of the
jobless respondents and housewives were supporting political party leadership rather than
political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows
an association between the gender of the respondents and party support.
Table No. 80
If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for
the party then?
Profession No Yes Don‟t know Total
Business 39 61 10 110
3.5% 5.4% 0.9% 9.8%
daily wage 37 55 3 95
133
3.3% 4.9% 0.3% 8.5%
Government
Servant
65 126 22 213
5.8% 11.2% 2% 19%
Non-
government
50 85 16 151
4.5% 7.6% 1.4% 13.5%
Farming 20 54 4 78
1.8% 4.8% 0.4% 7%
Unemployed 74 97 6 177
6.6% 8.6% 0.5% 15.8%
Housewives 106 161 31 298
9.4% 14.3% 2.8% 26.6%
Total 391 639 92 1122
34.8% 57% 8.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test=21.998a, p-value=.038
5.4.4 Income Consideration
In Table-81, among the total respondents, who are considered poor and those who did not
mention their income affirmed that they support political party regardless of party
leadership. Although some of the lower middle class, middle class, and upper-class
respondents were also supporting political party rather than the leadership of a party.
Conversely, many lower and lower middle income class respondents avowed that they vote
for the party leader rather than a political party, while a small number of middle and upper-
class respondents also asserted that they support party leader. Whereas, a huge number of
respondents who did not mention their monthly income said that they did not support the
political party in case of the absence of the present leadership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the monthly income of
the respondents and party support.
Table No. 81
If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would
you vote for the party then?
Monthly income No Yes Don‟t know Total
below 10,000 72 160 13 245
6.4% 14.3% 1.2% 21.8%
10000-20000 67 81 17 165
6% 7.2% 1.5% 14.7%
20000-30000 50 80 19 149
4.5% 7.1% 1.7% 13.3%
30000-40000 19 45 9 73
1.7% 4% .8% 6.5%
40000-50000 18 32 1 51
1.6% 2.9% .1% 4.5%
Above 50000 16 27 9 52
134
1.4% 2.4% .8% 4.6%
Don‟t know 149 214 24 387
13.3% 19.1% 2.1% 34.5%
Total 391 639 92 1122
34.8% 57% 8.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test=31.412a, p-value=002
5.4.6 Educational Consideration
Education is playing a key role to understand the political system of a country. In Table-82,
among the total respondents, a large number of graduate and post-graduate level
respondents affirmed to vote for a political party. However, some of the secondary school
and higher secondary school level respondents and a minor portion of primary and middle
school level respondents said that they are supporting a political party rather than a party
leader. Some of the illiterate respondents argued that they vote for the political party, not to
its leadership.
Conversely, some of the graduate, post-graduate, secondary and higher secondary school
level respondents believed that they vote for the party leader, not a political party. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the
educational qualification of the respondents and party support.
Table No. 82
If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would
you vote for the party then?
Educational
qualification
No Yes don‟t
know
Total
Primary 31 40 8 79
2.8% 3.6% 0.7% 7%
Middle 27 57 5 89
2.4% 5.1% 0.4% 7.9%
Matric 50 123 23 196
4.5% 11.0% 2% 17.5%
Intermediate 36 58 9 103
3.2% 5.2% 0.8% 9.2%
BA/BSc 80 86 15 181
7.1% 7.7% 1.3% 16.1%
MA/MSc 88 161 19 268
7.8% 14.3% 1.7% 23.9%
M.Phil 12 10 1 23
1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 2.0%
Illiterate 67 104 12 183
6.0% 9.3% 1.1% 16.3%
Total 391 639 92 1122
34.8% 57.0% 8.2% 100%
135
Chi-Square Test= 24.916a, p-value=.035
5.4.7 Regional Consideration
In Table-83, the respondents of three geographical zones about the political party support
have different opinion. Among the total respondents, the majority of the respondents of
central, southern and northern regions affirmed to support the political party rather than
leadership.
However, a small portion of the respondents in central districts, northern districts
and southern districts supporting the leadership of the party rather than party. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
the geographical region of the respondents and party support.
Table No. 83
If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote for the
party then?
Geographical
Region
No Yes Don‟t know Total
North 152 202 26 380
13.5% 18% 2.3% 33.9%
Center 141 191 28 360
12.6% 17.0% 2.5% 32.1%
South 98 246 38 382
8.7% 21.9% 3.4% 34.0%
Total 391 639 92 1122
34.8% 57.0% 8.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test=22.081a, p-value=.000
5.5 RESPONDENTS’ POLITICAL PARTIES AFFILIATION
Political parties are playing a significant role in the sustainability of the democratic setup. It
believed that political parties are also a necessary requirement for the dictatorial regime to
uphold governance and establish their rule. Nevertheless, some non-democratic actors are
trying to weaken the political parties in different parts of the world. But the political parties
are still the important element of a society (Carbone, 2007).
Pakistan has a multi-party political system. There are 197 registered political parties
in Pakistan (ECP, 2017). In the democratic setup, political parties are always struggling to
resolve political issues peacefully. In elections, political parties competing for each other to
136
get a political power. Without, the political power it is not possible to organize a society
(Hofmeister and Graow, 2011). Antony Downs said that “a political party is a team of men
seeking to control the governing apparatus by gaining office in a duly constituted election”
(Downs, 1957:25). Political parties are organized bodies with a formal membership the aim
of which is to exercise government power by winning political offices through the polls.
Every political party has different ways and means to get the membership. Likewise other
democracies of the globe, Pakistani political parties are also using different strategies to get
citizens membership. Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan (JIP) send membership forms to the senior
members of the party who making membership through these forms in their localities.
Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf (PTI) also using the same method for membership. While ANP
and PPP distributed the registration forms into Tapa members of the union council
committee. The member of the committee convinces the people through party program,
party candidate performance and even they use their personal influence to make
membership. Apart from that, a political party is also arranging the participatory meetings in
which the supporters join the party in front of local leadership. In this portion of the chapter,
it is tried to identify the different party-affiliated voters. The inferential statistical test (Chi-
square test) is used in which different variables are correlated.
5.5.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned among the total respondents in Table-84, some of the male
and female respondents said that they did not know anything about political party
membership. However, a large number of male and some of the female respondents said
that they have PTI membership. Among the other political parties, some of the male and
female respondents are supporting JI. Moreover, some of the male respondents and a minor
portion of female respondents have JUI-F membership; although ANP has comparatively
less membership than PTI, JI and JUI-F. Whereas a small number of male and female
respondents alleged that they have PPP membership. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square
137
test is insignificant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and
different political parties affiliation.
Table No. 84
Political Party Membership
Gend
er
PP
P
A
NP
PM
L-N
Q
W
P
JI JUI
-F
M
Q
M
JUI
-S
PTI PM
AP
None
of
these
Don‟t
know
APM
L
Total
Male 44 54 37 16 90 77 1 4 184 1 6 106 6 626
3.9
%
4.8
%
3.3
%
1.4
%
8.0
%
6.9
%
0.
1
%
0.4
%
16.4
%
0.1
%
0.5% 9.4% 0.5% 55.8
%
Fem
ale
43 42 38 12 68 42 1 7 121 3 1 113 5 496
3.8
%
3.7
%
3.4
%
1.1
%
6.1
%
3.7
%
0.
1
%
0.6
%
10.8
%
0.3
%
0.1% 10.1
%
0.4% 44.2
%
Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122
7.8
%
8.6
%
6.7
%
2.5
%
14.
1%
10.
6%
.2
%
1.0
%
27.2
%
.4% .6% 19.5
%
1% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 19.369a, p-value=.080
5.5.2 Age Consideration
Sometimes the age of an individual is playing a key role in the selection of a political party.
In Table-85, among the respondents of different age groups, the majority of youth and
teenagers admitted that they have PTI membership. However, a minor portion of old age
respondents also has PTI membership. Some adults, teenagers, middle age and senior
respondents were members of the Jamaat-e-Islami. Nonetheless, a minor portion of different
age respondents has the JUI-F membership. While a small number of adults, teenagers,
middle and old age respondents have ANP. PPP also has a less significant ratio of
membership.
Conversely, among the total respondents, a considerable number of adults, youth,
middle age and senior respondents said that they did not know anything about the party
membership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the age of the respondents and party membership. PTI is still the
favourite political party of youngsters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Therefore a large number of
youngsters were supporting Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.
Table No.85
138
Political party membership
Age PPP ANP P
M
L-
N
Q
WP
JI JUI
-F
M
Q
M
JU
I-
S
PTI PM
AP
Non
e of
these
Don‟t
know
AP
ML
Total
18-23 9 17 10 9 29 20 0 3 77 1 1 31 2 209
0.8
%
1.5
%
0.
9
%
0.8
%
2.6
%
1.8
%
0.
0
%
0.
3
%
6.9
%
0.1
%
0.1
%
2.8% 0.2
%
18.6%
23-27 15 14 15 2 14 21 0 3 63 1 1 51 1 201
1.3
%
1.2
%
1.
3
%
0.2
%
1.2
%
1.9
%
.0
%
0.
3
%
5.6
%
0.1
%
0.1
%
4.5% 0.1
%
17.9%
27-32 7 16 14 9 23 28 0 1 59 0 1 38 1 197
0.6
%
1.4
%
1.
2
%
.8% 2% 2.5
%
.0
%
0.
1
%
5.3
%
.0% 0.1
%
3.4% 0.1
%
17.6%
32-37 12 15 13 2 20 14 1 0 39 1 0 24 2 143
1.1
%
1.3
%
1.
2
%
.2% 1.8
%
1.2
%
.1
%
.0
%
3.5
%
.1% .0% 2.1% .2% 12.7%
37-42 18 15 6 2 18 17 0 2 33 0 1 32 2 146
1.6
%
1.3
%
.5
%
.2% 1.6
%
1.5
%
.0
%
.2
%
2.9
%
.0% .1% 2.9% .2% 13%
42-50 16 7 10 2 23 9 1 1 16 1 1 27 2 116
1.4
%
.6% .9
%
.2% 2.0
%
.8% .1
%
.1
%
1.4
%
.1% .1% 2.4% .2% 10.3%
Above
50
10 12 7 2 31 10 0 1 18 0 2 16 1 110
0.9
%
1.1
%
.6
%
.2% 2.8
%
.9% .0
%
.1
%
1.6
%
.0% .2% 1.4% .1% 9.8%
Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122
7.8
%
8.6
%
6.
7
%
2.5
%
14.
1%
10.
6%
.2
%
1.
0
%
27.
2%
.4% .6% 19.5
%
1% 100%
Chi-Square Test=1.163E2a, p-value=.001
5.5.3 Income Consideration
In terms of income Table-86 shows that, a large number of the respondents who did not
mention their income affirmed that they have Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf membership,
followed by the respondents of lower and middle income class. While a tiny portion of
middle and upper class respondents affirmed that they have PTI membership. Some of the
139
respondents of lower, middle and upper class have Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-
Islam-F membership. Awami National Party also gets the support of very small number of
support of different classes. On the other hand, Pakistan Peoples Party has the biggest
support from lower class respondents while a small portion of middle and upper class also
support it. Pakistan Peoples Party still popular among lower income class in Pakistan.
However, the bigger portion of those respondents who did not mention their
monthly income followed by lower and middle income class denied any political party
membership. An insignificant number of middle and upper class respondents also refused
any political party membership. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and
party membership.
Table No. 86
Political party membership
Monthly
income
PP
P
ANP PML
-N
Q
WP
JI JUI
-F
MQ
M
JUI
-S
PTI PM
AP
Non
e of
these
Don‟
t
kno
w
AP
ML
Total
below
10,000
23 15 18 6 31 48 0 3 62 1 1 35 2 245
2% 1.3
%
1.6
%
.5% 2.8
%
4.3
%
.0% .3% 5.5
%
.1% .1% 3.1
%
.2% 21.8
%
10000-
20000
16 16 7 6 16 17 0 0 45 0 1 35 6 165
1.4
%
1.4
%
.6% .5% 1.4
%
1.5
%
.0% .0% 4.0
%
.0% .1% 3.1
%
.5% 14.7
%
20000-
30000
10 16 10 2 19 13 0 0 43 0 1 34 1 149
0.9
%
1.4
%
.9% .2% 1.7
%
1.2
%
.0% .0% 3.8
%
.0% .1% 3.0
%
.1% 13.3
%
30000-
40000
7 5 7 0 13 2 2 0 24 0 2 11 0 73
0.6
%
0.4
%
0.6
%
.0% 1.2
%
.2% .2% .0% 2.1
%
.0% .2% 1.0
%
.0% 6.5%
40000-
50000
4 6 0 2 8 1 0 0 12 1 0 16 1 51
0.4
%
.5% .0% .2% .7% .1% .0% .0% 1.1
%
.1% .0% 1.4
%
.1% 4.5%
Above
50000
4 1 4 0 19 2 0 0 13 0 0 9 0 52
0.4
%
.1% .4% .0% 1.7
%
.2% .0% .0% 1.2
%
.0% .0% .8% .0% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
23 37 29 12 52 36 0 8 106 2 2 79 1 387
2% 3.3
%
2.6
%
1.1
%
4.6
%
3.2
%
.0% .7% 9.4
%
.2% .2% 7.0
%
.1% 34.5
%
140
Chi-Square test=45.495a, p-value=.005
5.5.4 Educational Consideration
Education is playing a paramount role in the selection of political party. To keep education
under consideration in Table-87, among the total respondents of different educational levels,
a major portion of post-graduate and graduate level respondents accepted that they have
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf membership. However, some of the respondents of secondary,
higher secondary school level and illiterate respondents stated that they have PTI
membership.
A major portion of graduate and post-graduate level respondents support Jamaat-i-
Islami. Some of the respondents of secondary and higher secondary level have JI
membership. Moreover, a considerable number of illiterate respondents also have JI
membership. Some of the respondents of secondary school level and illiterate respondents
stated that they have JUI-F membership. While a small portion of graduate and post-
graduate level respondents also supporting JUI-F.
Awami National Party (ANP) has a major portion of graduate and post-graduate
level respondents‟ membership. Although some of the illiterate respondents have ANP
membership. However, PPP membership distributed in graduate, post-graduate, secondary,
higher secondary school level respondents. Some of the illiterate respondents have
membership of Pakistan Peoples Party.
Conversely, some of graduate and post-graduate level respondents shows their
disenchantment from political parties and regret any political party membership. Moreover,
the dissatisfaction is found in some of the illiterate respondents about political parties. The
P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between the educational qualification of the respondents and party membership.
Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122
7.8
%
8.6
%
6.7
%
2.5
%
14.1
%
10.
6%
.2% 1% 27.
2%
.4% .6% 19.5
%
1.0
%
100
%
141
Table No. 87
Political party membership
Educatio
nal
qualificat
ion
PPP ANP PM
L-
N
QW
P
JI JUI-F MQ
M
JUI
-S
PTI PM
AP
Non
e of
these
Don‟t
know
AP
ML
Tota
l
Primary 4 8 10 4 9 14 0 1 16 0 2 11 0 79
.4% .7% .9% .4% .8% 1.2% .0% .1% 1.4
%
.0% .2% 1.0% .0% 7
%
Middle 4 4 4 2 17 9 0 2 31 1 0 12 3 89
.4% .4% .4% .2% 1.5
%
.8% .0% .2% 2.8
%
.1% .0% 1.1% .3% 7.9
%
Matric 15 13 15 5 23 37 0 3 60 0 2 21 2 196
1.3
%
1.2
%
1.3
%
.4% 2.0
%
3.3% .0% .3% 5.3
%
.0% .2% 1.9% .2% 17.5
%
Intermedi
ate
11 14 10 3 9 7 0 2 30 0 0 16 1 103
1.0
%
1.2
%
.9% .3% .8% .6% .0% .2% 2.7
%
.0% .0% 1.4% .1% 9.2
%
BA/BSc 16 13 9 5 26 18 0 1 50 2 1 38 2 181
1.4
%
1.2
%
.8% .4% 2.3
%
1.6% .0% .1% 4.5
%
.2% .1% 3.4% .2% 16.1
%
MA/MSc 17 22 14 5 44 9 2 0 77 1 1 73 3 268
1.5
%
2.0
%
1.2
%
.4% 3.9
%
.8% .2% .0% 6.9
%
.1% .1% 6.5% .3% 23.9
%
M.Phil 2 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 10 0 1 6 0 23
.2% .0% .0% .1% .2% .1% .0% .0% .9% .0% .1% .5% .0% 2%
Illiterate 18 22 13 3 28 24 0 2 31 0 0 42 0 183
1.6
%
2.0
%
1.2
%
.3% 2.5
%
2.1% .0% .2% 2.8
%
.0% .0% 3.7% .0% 16.3
%
Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122
7.8
%
8.6
%
6.7
%
2.5
%
14.
1%
10.6
%
.2% 1% 27.2
%
.4% .6% 19.5% 1% 100
%
Chi-Square Test=1.443E2a, p-value=.000
5.5.5 Regional Consideration
Political party membership position is different in each geographical regions of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. In Table-88, among the respondents of different geographical regions of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa PTI have a major share of membership in north followed by central
and southern regions. However, JI have largest support from northern and southern regions.
JUI-F has a significant membership from southern regions. On the other hand, JUI-F
has a slight support from northern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. ANP has the largest
142
membership in the central geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Some of the
respondents of northern and southern regions also have membership of Awami National
Party. Pakistan Peoples Party has the biggest support from northern region of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. Some of the respondents of center and southern regions have membership of
the PPP.
On the other hand, we have found a large number of respondents in northern
regions who denied the membership of any political party. However, some of the
respondents of central and southern regions also reject any political party membership. The
P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between the geographical regions of the respondents and party membership.
Table No. 88
Political party membership
Geogra
phical
Region
PPP ANP PM
L-
N
QW
P
JI JUI-F MQM JUI-
S
PTI PM
AP
None
of
these
Don‟t
know
AP
ML
Total
North 42 15 14 11 51 13 0 2 126 0 1 95 10 380
3.7
%
1.3% 1.2
%
1.0
%
4.5
%
1.2% .0% .2% 11.
2%
.0% .1% 8.5% .9% 33.9
%
Center 20 58 38 12 46 21 1 2 83 1 2 76 0 360
1.8
%
5.2% 3.4
%
1.1
%
4.1
%
1.9% .1% .2% 7.4
%
.1% .2% 6.8% .0% 32.1
%
South 25 23 23 5 61 85 1 7 96 3 4 48 1 382
2.2
%
2.0% 2.0
%
.4% 5.4
%
7.6% 0.1% 0.6
%
8.6
%
0.3
%
0.4% 4.3% .1% 34%
Total 87 96 75 28 158 119 2 11 305 4 7 219 11 1122
7.8
%
8.6% 6.7
%
2.5
%
14.1
%
10.6
%
0.2% 1% 27.
2%
0.4
%
0.6% 19.5% 1% 100
%
Chi-Square Test= 3.858E2a, p-value=.000
5.6 SWITCHING NEW POLITICAL PARTY ACCORDING TO THE
CIRCUMSTANCES (POLITICAL AND SOCIAL)
Hansen and Jansen (2007) argued that political parties are regarded as „service-providers‟.
Political parties deliver services in the exchange of voters support in election. If a party
delivers services for the good of community the voters will support the same political party
143
in the next election. In case if a party could not deliver any good services to the community
the voter usually switch to the other political parties in the coming election. However,
Lipset and Rokkan (1967) stated that an individual vote to that candidate or political party
who they believe will serve their social class interest better.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa we can see fluctuations in the political parties vote bank in
each election. It is assumed that voters are more strategic and rational in party selection. To
identify the voters‟ perception about party switching, a question was asked, “Should we
change political party according to the circumstances? The response of voters is correlated
with controlled variables (i.e., gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions).
5.6.1 Gender Consideration
Table-89 shows the perception of male and female respondents about the party switching. A
significant number of male and female respondents agree to change the political party
according to the circumstances. However, a large number of male and female respondents
disagree to change the political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and party
switching according to circumstances.
Table No. 89
We should change political party according to the circumstances?
Gender Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
Male 121 169 91 196 48 625
10.8% 15.1% 8.1% 17.5% 4.3% 55.8%
Female 71 137 145 106 37 496
6.3% 12.2% 12.9% 9.5% 3.3% 44.2%
Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121
17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100%
Chi-square test=42.688a, p-value=.000
5.6.2 Age Consideration
As far as age is concerned, among the respondents of different age groups, some of the
adults, middle and old age respondents agree to switch a political party according to the
circumstances. However, a large number of the youngsters, middle and elders refused to
144
change political party according to the circumstances. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square
test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and
party switching according to circumstances (See Table No.90).
Table No.90
We should change political party according to the circumstances?
Age Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to some
extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
18-23 31 56 42 65 15 209
2.8% 5% 3.7% 5.8% 1.3% 18.6%
23-27 36 50 42 52 21 201
3.2% 4.5% 3.7% 4.6% 1.9% 17.9%
27-32 43 53 37 48 16 197
3.8% 4.7% 3.3% 4.3% 1.4% 17.6%
32-37 23 39 36 34 10 142
2.1% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 0.9% 12.7%
37-42 22 44 34 38 8 146
2.0% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% 0.7% 13%
42-50 14 28 29 35 10 116
1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% 0.9% 10.3%
Above
50
23 36 16 30 5 110
2.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2.7% 0.4% 9.8%
Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121
17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100%
Chi-square test=21.680a, p-value=.598
5.6.3 Professional Consideration
In terms of profession a large number of business community and daily wagers said that we
should switch a political party according to the circumstances. Some of the government
employees, non-government servants, housewives and jobless respondents agree to switch
political parties according to circumstances.
On the other hand, we have found a major portion of government employees shows
their difference to switch political party according to the situation. However, some of the
businessmen, daily wagers, NGOs employees and unemployed respondents disagree to
change political party according the circumstances. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test
is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents
and party switching according to circumstances (See Table No.91).
145
Table No. 91
We should change political party according to the circumstances?
Profession Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
Business 16 30 16 38 10 110
1.4% 2.7% 1.4% 3.4% 0.9% 9.8%
Daily wage 9 21 19 36 9 94
0.8% 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.8% 8.4%
Government Servant 58 54 41 46 14 213
5.2% 4.8% 3.7% 4.1% 1.2% 19.0%
Non-government servant 30 37 26 45 13 151
2.7% 3.3% 2.3% 4% 1.2% 13.5%
Farming 10 23 10 30 5 78
0.9% 2.1% 0.9% 2.7% 0.4% 7.0%
Unemployed 35 53 28 46 15 177
3.1% 4.7% 2.5% 4.1% 1.3% 15.8%
Housewives 34 88 96 61 19 298
3% 7.9% 8.6% 5.4% 1.7% 26.6%
Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121
17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100%
Chi-square test=73.288a, p-value=.000
5.6.4 Income Consideration
In Table-92 among the total respondents of different income levels, the largest number of
low income group agreed to switch a new political party according to the circumstances.
Nonetheless, a small number of low middle, upper middle and upper class income class
respondents stated that a political party should be change according to the circumstances.
Contrary to that, a significant number of lower, middle and upper income class
respondents disagree to switch political party according to the circumstances. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
the monthly income of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances.
Table No.92
We should change political party according to the circumstances?
Monthly
Income
Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some extent
Agree to a large
extent
Total
Below
10,000
41 61 41 82 20 245
3.7% 5.4% 3.7% 7.3% 1.8% 21.9%
10000-
20000
28 44 29 49 14 164
2.5% 3.9% 2.6% 4.4% 1.2% 14.6%
20000-
30000
25 40 34 40 10 149
2.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.6% 0.9% 13.3%
30000-
40000
16 21 10 18 8 73
1.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 6.5%
40000-
50000
5 17 8 18 3 51
0.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1.6% 0.3% 4.5%
Above 22 12 5 12 1 52
146
50000 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
55 111 109 83 29 387
4.9% 9.9% 9.7% 7.4% 2.6% 34.5%
Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121
17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100%
Chi-square test=58.484a, p-value=.000
5.6.5 Educational Consideration
In terms of education the highest number of post graduate level respondents shows a
rational approach towards switching political parties. Therefore, a large number of post
graduate level respondents said that political party should be switch according to the
circumstances. Interestingly, a significant number of post graduate level respondents
accepted to switch political parties. While, some of the primary, secondary, higher
secondary, graduate and illiterate respondents argue that they are in favour of switching of
political parties according to the political circumstances. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the educational
qualification of the respondents and party switching according to circumstances (See Table
No.93).
Table No.93
We should change political party according to the circumstances?
Educational
qualification
Extremely
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to
a large
extent
Total
Primary 11 23 18 19 7 78
1.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 7.0%
Middle 9 18 18 39 5 89
0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 3.5% 0.4% 7.9%
Matric 26 58 45 48 19 196
2.3% 5.2% 4.0% 4.3% 1.7% 17.5%
Intermediate 16 25 25 28 9 103
1.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 0.8% 9.2%
BA/BSc 32 54 35 47 13 181
2.9% 4.8% 3.1% 4.2% 1.2% 16.1%
MA/MSc 71 70 33 71 23 268
6.3% 6.2% 2.9% 6.3% 2.1% 23.9%
M.Phil 6 6 3 7 1 23
0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.1%
Illiterate 21 52 59 43 8 183
1.9% 4.6% 5.3% 3.8% 0.7% 16.3%
Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121
17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100%
Chi-square test=65.035a, p-value=.000
147
5.6.6 Regional Consideration
In Table-94, among the total respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, we have found a major portion of the southern and northern geographical
regions respondents who support the opinion that the political party should be change
according to the circumstances. On the other hand, a significant number of the respondents
of southern, central and northern zones respondents who disallow the opinion to change
political party according to the circumstances. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the
respondents and party switching according to circumstances.
Table No.94 We should change political party according to the situation?
Geograp
hical
Region
Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some extent
Agree to a large
extent
Total
North 59 108 63 112 38 380
5.3% 9.6% 5.6% 10.0% 3.4% 33.9%
Center 60 96 109 77 18 360
5.4% 8.6% 9.7% 6.9% 1.6% 32.1%
South 73 102 64 113 29 381
6.5% 9.1% 5.7% 10.1% 2.6% 34.0%
Total 192 306 236 302 85 1121
17.1% 27.3% 21.1% 26.9% 7.6% 100%
Chi-square test=35.405a, p-value=.000
5.7 RESPONDENTS PREDICTION ABOUT THE POLITICAL PARTY
CANDIDATE IN 2018 ELECTION
The core committees of different political parties decide to allot ticket to a candidate for
next election in a constituency. Core committee of a political party composed of senior,
experienced and active members. The members of core committee have consensus with
party leadership on ticket allotment. The core committee tries to review the political
scenario of the constituency and the political strength of the contesting candidates.
Sometimes the core committee allots ticket to those candidates who are financial stable
while sometime a political party selects a tribal elder. The core committees of different
148
political parties are adopting a pragmatic strategy in election tickets allotment. Therefore,
those contesting candidate who are more active and have more sacrifices for a political
party but financially weak are often sideline in election. However, the personal interest of
the members of core committee is also playing a key role in tickets allocation. For example,
in NA-8 Charsadda the national assembly candidate Jahanzeb Khan Dakki who secured
third largest vote bank in 2013 election is sideline in 2018 election because the core
committee member support Malak Anwar Taj. Janhanzeb Khan Dakki is one of the pioneers
of PTI in Charsadda. After 2013 election he actively organized several party meeting in
different villages of Charsadda. Maybe the leadership of political party believes on low cost
and more profit policy. Nevertheless party ticket allotment is a herculean task for the
leadership of party and core committee.
On the other hand, voter is also very conscious about the selection of a single
candidate or party among others in a constituency. The partisans already decide to whom
they will vote in election but for non-partisans it is a brainstorming job. Party voters always
believe that the party he has affiliation will win the coming election. The prediction about
the victory of a political party also shows the party attachment. To know the perception of
the respondents about political parties in next election, the researcher asked that, “In your
opinion which political party candidate should win the 2018 general elections from your
constituency? The reaction of the respondents correlated with gender, age, profession,
education and geographical regions.
5.7.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned a large number of male and female respondents predict that
the next victorious candidate will be from PTI in their constituency. However, a significant
number of male and female respondents predict about the victory of religious political
parties. Some of the male and female respondents predict about ANP in 2018 election. A
small number of male and female respondents foresee PML-N and PPP. The data found that
149
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa MQM is unpopular political party. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the
respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018
election (See Table No.95).
Table No.95
Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election
Gen
der
PPP ANP PML
-N
QW
P
JI JUI-
F
MQM JUI
-S
PTI PMA
P
Indepe
ndent
don‟t
know
AP
ML
Tota
l
Mal
e
42 75 42 23 81 86 1 3 190 3 13 56 4 626
3.7
%
6.7
%
3.7
%
2.0
%
7.2
%
7.7
%
0.1% 0.3
%
16.
9%
0.3% 1.2% 5% 0.4
%
55.8
%
Fem
ale
44 49 48 12 64 39 1 8 137 3 13 68 7 496
3.9
%
4.4
%
4.3
%
1.1
%
5.7
%
3.5
%
0.1% 0.7
%
12.
2%
0.3% 1.2% 6.1% .6% 44.2
%
Tota
l
86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 112
2
7.7
%
11.1
%
8% 3.1
%
12.9
%
11.1
%
0.2% 1% 29.
1%
0.5% 2.3% 11.1
%
1% 100
%
Chi-square test=28.787a, p-value=.007
5.7.2 Age Consideration
In Table-96, the largest number of adults and young age respondents foresee the victory of
PTI in General Elections 2018. However, a significant number of middle and aged
respondents predict about the religious political parties (JI, JUI-F and S). Regardless of that
some of the young and aged respondents guess the victory of PPP and ANP in 2018 election
in their respective constituencies. The findings of the data show that PTI is most popular
party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will be in 2018 election.29 The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the age of the
respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018
election.
29
In general election 2018, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf emerged the victorious political party and formed
government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
150
Table No.96
Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election
Age PPP ANP PML-
N
QWP JI JUI-
F
MQ
M
JUI
-S
PTI PMA
P
Indepe
ndents
don‟t
know
AP
ML
Total
18-
23
4 24 15 8 25 22 0 3 76 2 5 22 3 209
.4% 2.1% 1.3% .7% 2.2
%
2.0
%
.0% .3% 6.8
%
.2% .4% 2.0% .3% 18.6
%
23-
27
19 18 19 4 12 19 1 4 68 1 2 31 1 201
1.7
%
1.6% 1.7% .4% 1.1
%
1.7
%
.1% .4% 6.1
%
.1% .2% 2.8% .1% 17.9
%
27-
32
13 15 21 9 17 24 0 0 69 1 5 20 2 197
1.2
%
1.3% 1.9% .8% 1.5
%
2.1
%
.0% .0% 6.1
%
.1% .4% 1.8% .2% 17.6
%
32-
37
14 24 12 2 20 16 0 1 36 1 2 14 1 143
1.2
%
2.1% 1.1% .2% 1.8
%
1.4
%
.0% .1% 3.2
%
.1% .2% 1.2% .1% 12.7
%
37-
42
13 18 9 3 21 18 0 1 38 0 6 15 2 146
1.2
%
1.6% .8% .3% 1.9
%
1.6
%
.0% .1% 3.4
%
.0% .5% 1.3% .2% 13%
42-
50
12 8 8 2 21 13 1 1 27 0 4 15 1 116
1.1
%
.7% .7% .2% 1.9
%
1.2
%
.1% .1% 2.4
%
.0% .4% 1.3% .1% 10.3
%
Abo
ve
50
11 17 6 7 29 13 0 1 13 1 2 7 1 110
1% 1.5% .5% .6% 2.6
%
1.2
%
.0% .1% 1.2
%
.1% .2% .6% .1% 9.8%
Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122
7.7
%
11.1
%
8% 3.1% 12.9
%
11.1
%
.2% 1% 29.1
%
.5% 2.3% 11.1% 1% 100%
Chi-square test=1.226E2a, p-value=.001
5.7.3 Professional Consideration
In terms of profession, among the total respondents of different professional groups the
largest number of jobless, government and non-government employees foresees the success
PTI candidate in 2018 election. However, the major portion of housewives foresees PPP
candidate victory in 2018 election. We have found majority of government servants and
housewives who expect the victory of ANP candidate in the coming election. Moreover, a
significant number of government servants, housewives and jobless respondents predict
religious political parties‟ candidate in their respective constituencies in 2018 election. The
P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between the profession of the respondents and prediction about the victory of different
political parties candidates in 2018 election.
151
Table No.97
Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election
Profession PPP ANP PML-N
QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI-S
PTI PMAP Indep don‟t know
APML Total
Business 10 11 3 6 10 14 0 0 29 2 5 18 1 110
0.9% 1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 0.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.1% 9.8%
Daily wage 7 9 10 3 10 17 0 4 27 0 0 6 2 95
0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 8.5%
Government Servant
14 23 14 5 43 19 1 1 57 0 5 25 3 213
1.2% 2% 1.2% 0.4% 3.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 19%
Non-
government
servant
13 18 16 5 10 7 1 0 57 1 4 18 0 151
1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 5.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.6% 0.0% 13.5%
Farming 4 10 6 5 9 16 0 0 22 1 0 4 0 78
0.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 7%
Unemployed 11 15 13 3 16 24 0 1 63 1 5 23 2 177
1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% 1.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.4% 2% 0.2% 15.8%
Housewife 27 38 28 8 47 28 0 5 72 1 7 30 3 298
2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 0.7% 4.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.4% 6.4% 0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 0.3% 26.6%
Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122
7.7% 11.1% 8.0% 3.1% 12.9% 11.1% 0.2% 1% 29.1% 0.5% 2.3% 11.1% 1% 100%
Chi-square test= 1.153E2a, p-value=.004
5.7.4 Income Consideration
In terms of income, Table-98 shows that majority of the lower income class respondents
expecting victory for the PTI candidate in their constituency in the coming election 2018.
Interestingly, a major portion of lower income class predicts the victory of religious
political parties (JUI and JI) in General Elections 2018. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a huge
number of the voters of lower income class are supporting religious political parties. While
majority of the lower income class predict the PPP candidate‟s victory in 2018 election. The
data results show that, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa PPP is a popular political party among
lower income class. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and prediction about
the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018 election.
152
Table No.98
Chi-square test= 1.824E2a, p-value=.000
5.7.5 Educational Consideration
In Table-99, among the total respondents a significant number of secondary school level,
graduate and post graduate respondents foresee the victory of PTI candidate in their
respective constituencies. While a significant ratio of illiterate respondents expect PTI
candidate in the next election. On the other hand, a great number of graduate and post
graduate respondents predicts the ANP and JI victory in General Elections 2018. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
the educational qualification of the respondents and prediction about the victory of different
political parties candidates in 2018 election.
Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election
Monthly
income
PP
P
AN
P
PML
-N
Q
WP
JI JUI-
F
MQ
M
JUI
-S
PTI PMA
P
Indep
enden
t
don‟t
know
APM
L
Tota
l
Below
10,000
17 15 25 7 24 50 0 2 69 1 4 25 1 245
1.5
%
1.3
%
2.2
%
.6% 2.1
%
4.5
%
.0% .2% 6.1
%
.1% .4% 2.2% .1% 21.8
%
10000-
20000
14 21 5 8 14 22 0 0 47 0 4 22 7 165
1.2
%
1.9
%
.4% .7% 1.2
%
2.0
%
.0% .0% 4.2
%
.0% .4% 2.0% .6% 14.7
%
20000-
30000
9 18 11 6 16 15 0 1 41 2 8 19 1 149
.8% 1.6
%
1.0
%
.5% 1.4
%
1.3
%
.0% .1% 3.7
%
.2% .7% 1.7% .1% 13.3
%
30000-
40000
6 8 11 1 13 2 2 0 24 1 1 3 1 73
.5% .7% 1.0
%
.1% 1.2
%
.2% .2% .0% 2.1
%
.1% .1% .3% .1% 6.5
%
40000-
50000
4 10 2 2 10 1 0 1 10 0 0 10 1 51
.4% .9% .2% .2% .9% .1% .0% .1% .9% .0% .0% .9% .1% 4.5
%
Above
50000
4 3 4 1 19 2 0 0 16 0 1 2 0 52
.4% .3% .4% .1% 1.7
%
.2% .0% .0% 1.4
%
.0% .1% .2% .0% 4.6
%
Don‟t
know
32 49 32 10 49 33 0 7 120 2 8 43 0 387
2.9
%
4.4
%
2.9
%
.9% 4.4
%
2.9
%
.0% .6% 10.
7%
.2% .7% 3.8% .0% 34.5
%
Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122
7.7
%
11.
1%
8.0
%
3.1
%
12.9
%
11.1
%
.2% 1.0
%
29.
1%
.5% 2.3% 11.1
%
1.0% 100.
0%
153
Table No.99
Chi-square test= 1.123E2a, p-value=.064
5.7.6 Regional Consideration
In terms of geographical region, Table-100 shows that a major portion of the respondents of
northern geographical zones foresee the success of PTI in the next election. However, a
major portion of the central geographical zones expecting ANP success in 2018 election.
Although, a large number of the respondents of southern regions predict religious political
parties victory in General Elections 2018. The results show that religious political parties
popular in southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square
test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the
respondents and prediction about the victory of different political parties candidates in 2018
election.
Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election
Educati
on
PP
P
ANP PML
-N
QWP JI JUI-
F
MQ
M
JUI-
S
PTI PM
AP
Indep
enden
t
don‟t
know
APM
L
Tota
l
Primary 8 11 6 3 8 15 0 1 17 0 0 8 0 79
0.7
%
1% 0.5
%
0.3% 0.7
%
1.3
%
0.0
%
0.1
%
1.5
%
0.0
%
0.0% .7% .0% 7%
Middle 5 6 8 3 11 13 0 1 27 1 3 8 2 89
0.4
%
0.5
%
0.7
%
0.3% 1.0
%
1.2
%
0.0
%
0.1
%
2.4
%
0.1
%
0.3% .7% 0.2% 7.9
%
Matric 14 18 15 4 20 35 0 4 64 2 3 15 1 196
1.2
%
1.6
%
1.3
%
0.4% 1.8
%
3.1
%
.0% 0.4
%
5.7
%
0.2
%
0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 17.5
%
Interme
diate
10 18 10 5 7 5 1 1 31 1 4 7 1 103
.9% 1.6
%
0.9
%
0.4% 0.6
%
0.4
%
0.1
%
0.1
%
2.8
%
0.1
%
0.4% .6% 0.1% 9.2
%
BA/BSc 7 18 11 9 24 21 0 1 54 1 5 25 3 181
0.6
%
1.6
%
1.0
%
0.8% 2.1
%
1.9
%
.0% 0.1
%
4.8
%
0.1
%
0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 16.1
%
MA/MS
c
21 28 23 5 47 12 1 1 82 0 6 37 3 268
1.9
%
2.5
%
2.0
%
0.4% 4.2
%
1.1
%
.1% .1% 7.3
%
.0% .5% 3.3% 0.3% 23.9
%
M.Phil 2 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 12 0 1 3 0 23
.2% .1% .0% .2% .1% .1% .0% .0% 1.1
%
.0% .1% .3% .0% 2.0
%
Illiterate 19 24 17 4 27 23 0 2 40 1 4 21 1 183
1.7
%
2.1
%
1.5
%
0.4% 2.4
%
2.0
%
.0% 0.2
%
3.6
%
0.1
%
0.4% 1.9% 0.1% 16.3
%
Total 86 124 90 35 145 125 2 11 327 6 26 124 11 1122
7.7
%
11.1
%
8% 3.1% 12.9
%
11.1
%
0.2
%
1% 29.1
%
0.5
%
2.3% 11.1
%
1% 100
%
154
Table No.100
Prediction about the victory of a political party candidate in 2018 election
Geographic
al Region
PPP ANP PML
-N
QW
P
JI JUI-
F
MQ
M
JU
I-S
PTI P
M
AP
Any
other
Indep Don
‟t
kno
w
AP
ML
Total
North 38 20 23 12 48 18 0 2 140 1 4 8 55 11 380
3.4
%
1.8% 2% 1.1
%
4.3
%
1.6
%
0.0
%
0.2
%
12.5
%
0.1
%
0.4% 0.7% 4.9
%
1% 33.9%
Center 24 79 39 17 38 17 2 3 92 1 5 2 41 0 360
2.1
%
7% 3.5% 1.5
%
3.4
%
1.5
%
0.2
%
0.3
%
8.2
%
0.1
%
0.4% 0.2% 3.7
%
0.0
%
32.1%
South 24 25 28 6 59 90 0 6 95 4 1 16 28 0 382
2.1
%
2.2% 2.5% 0.5
%
5.3
%
8% 0.0
%
0.5
%
8.5
%
0.4
%
0.1% 1.4% 2.5
%
0.0
%
34%
Total 86 124 90 35 14
5
125 2 11 327 6 10 26 124 11 1122
7.7
%
11.1
%
8% 3.1
%
12.
9
%
11.1
%
0.2
%
1
%
29.1
%
0.5
%
0.9% 2.3% 11.1
%
1% 100%
Chi-square test= 4.397E2a, p-value=.000
Summary
The findings of the study presented different results to those of Farmanullah and Islam
(2014) who argued that party identification is not a determinant of voting behaviour in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. But the researcher found different statistics of partisan voters in
General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that shows that there is still a strong
partisanship. Moreover, Farmanulllah and Islam data collection was limited to a single
constituency of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but in this research study the data is collected from
three different geographical regions (i.e., North, Center and South) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The researcher tested the hypothesis of party identification on different variables. In
case of the first variable majority respondents accepted that they have membership of
different political parties. Secondly, a major portion of respondents‟ opines that vote should
be given on the basis of party affiliation. While the largest number of respondents showed
their affiliation to different political parties during survey. On the other hand, majority of
the respondents predicted the victory of different political parties in 2018 election. For
155
example in Northern region PTI have great support while in southern region religious
political parties (JUI-F) are dominant. However, in central geographical region ANP and
PPP got a major membership support. PPP is still a popular political party in the lower
income class. While religious political parties have a major support in the illiterate
respondents. On the basis of above findings we can generalize that party identification or
party affiliation is still playing a strong role in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan.
156
CHAPTER – 6
ROLE OF THE PERSONALITY OF CANDIDATE
IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013
6.1 INTRODUCTION
Anthony Downs said that “a political party is a team of men seeking to control the
governing apparatus by gaining office in a duly constituted election” (Downs, 1957:25). He
pointed out that political party is a team of men; therefore in developing democracies,
political parties are dominated by those men (personalities). In political science, importance
is given to socio-cultural and economic forces that form political behaviour and attitude.
Jennings (1968, 1991) and Healy & Malhotra (2013) figured out the role of parental
socialization in the formation of political attitudes of an individual. Iyengar & Kinder
(1987) highlighted the role of media in shaping political attitudes. On the other hand,
Fiorina (1981) and Huckfeldt and Sprague (1995) study identified the importance of social
networks and the economy. Hobbs et al. (2014) Tilley & Hobolt (2011) argued that
government performance and personal experience of an individual influence his/er political
attitudes and choice.
However, Giddens (1998) and Caprara et al. (1999, 2002) observed the importance
of personality politics in many democracies. Caprara & Zimbardo (2004) figure out that the
personalization of politics covers two processes; first, the personality of candidate captures
central position and become the focus of voters‟ interest, and secondly, the voters own
personality, becomes more important and decisive for political choice. Wattenberg‟s (1998)
study illustrated that some factors change the individual political attitude. In some cases, the
diversity, and boundaries of political parties may weaken the parties support among the
voters. Consequently, the space covered by personality-oriented politics. In the following
passage, the role of the personality of a candidate on voter‟s political choice is examined in
the light of data.
157
The Five Factor Model (FFM)30 of personality is a factor analytic research. Costa-Jr.
and McCrae (2012) argued that FFM model traits consist of, “Openness to Experience,
Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism”. It is widely used a
framework for the classification and determining the main dimensions of personality
(Goldberg, 1992). The FFM model does not cover all those dimensions in which an
individual differentiate their own personality and other person‟s personality. The good
qualities of a person that influence the other people are, creativity, vision, curiosity,
experienced, thoughtful and have ground-breaking ideas.
Many scholars argued that the individual who has leadership qualities are generally,
“talkative, energetic, enthusiastic, assertive, outgoing and sociable” (Hiel and Mervielde,
2004; Barnea and Schwartz, 1998; Carney et al., 2008; Gosling et al., 2003; Jost et al.,
2007; McCrae, 1996). Robert McCrae argued that “variations in experiential „Openness‟ are
the major psychological determinant of political polarities” (McCrae, 1996:325). In
addition, Caprara et al. (1999) figure out the center-left voters have relatively more
„Openness‟ than center-right voters.
On the other hand, Mehrabian (1996) and Stenner (2005) observed that
conservatives are more conscious and caring than liberals. Caprara et al. (1999) sort out that
liberal electorates in Italy have a higher level of „Agreeableness‟ than conservatives.
6.2 INFLUENCE OF CANDIDATE PERSONALITY ON VOTER
The FFM model is used in economics and political science. Almlund et al. (2011) Ozer et
al. (2006) linked FFM model to economics and Gerber et al. (2011) Mondak & Halperin
(2008) Mondak (2010) use it in political science. It is assumed that a „Powerful Congruency
Principle‟ of the personality of a voter and their political leaders explain why voter support
30
The Five-Factor Model of personality (FFM) is a set of five wide trait dimensions, often referred to as the
“Big Five”: that includes Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness to
Experience. (For detail see Digman, John M. (1990). Personality Structure: Emergence of the five-factor
model. Annual Review of Psychology 41.1: 417-440. And Soto, C. J., & Jackson, J. J. (2013). Five-factor
Model of Personality. UK: Oxford University Press.)
158
that particular candidate (Caprara and Zimbardo, 2004:590). The „Congruence Principle‟ is
defined as; a voter matches his own personality with contesting candidate personality. If a
voter found similar qualities in contesting candidate personality then he preferred to vote
that candidate (Caprara et al., 2002; Roets & Van Hiel, 2009; Vecchione, Castro, &
Caprara, 2011). However, the „Congruence Principle‟ between the personality traits of
contesting candidates and electorates brought them close to each other during the election.
Caprara et al. (2003) said that in Italy the „Rightist‟ political leaders secured higher support
because of „Conscientiousness‟ and „Extraversion‟ while „Leftist‟ political leaders did not
get such support. Caprara and Zimbardo (2004) describe the significance of personality in
shaping electoral attitudes.
Converse (1964) and Zaller & Feldman, (1992) presented top-down process theory.
They argued that „top-down processes‟ affect political ideology. Jost et al. (2009:316)
elucidate that in the top-down process common people inspire from the elite class
ideological position. Therefore, a large number of common voters support those political
ideologies which are already prevailed in society. Jost et al. (2009) also pointed out the role
bottom-up process in shaping political ideology. In bottom-up process demonstrated the role
of an internal psychological force of an individual‟s ideological position. Jost et al., (2003)
describe that conservatives refuse to accept changes in the socio-political structure.
Conservative voters are more rigid, orderliness, self-discipline, and self-control. However,
liberals are more flexible, open-minded than conservatives. Therefore, Jost et al. (2003)
argued that personality traits have a direct impact on ideology. However, Block & Block
(2006) and Fraley et al. (2012) studies prove the significance of bottom-up processes in the
shaping of political ideology of an individual.
Duckitt & Sibley (2010) and Duckitt (2001) presented the impact of Dual-Process
Motivational (DPM) Model on political ideology. DPM Model explains that top-down and
bottom-up developments influence the ideology of a person. The proponents of Dual-
159
Process Motivational (DPM) model supporting the relationship between political attitudes
and personality of an individual. However, Campbell et al., (1960) and McClosky (1958)
studies also supported the relationship between personality traits and political attitudes. On
the other hand, McClosky empirically tested the association of individual personality and
political attitudes (McClosky, 1958: 40).
In Pakistan, electoral politics is personalized and political parties are dominated by a
few families. Likewise, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) under the control of
Sharif family, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) dominated by Bhutto‟s and now Zardari family,
Jamiat-i-Ulema-e-Islam-F (JUI-F) controlled by Mufti Mehmood family, Jamiat-i-Ulema-e-
Islam-S (JUI-S) by Maulana Sami-Ul-Haq family and so on. Muhammad Waseem
(2006:108) argues that under the present electoral laws, candidate with a small fraction of
voters could be elected, and therefore, elections became personality oriented. In Pakistan,
personalities are bridging the voters with political parties.
In 1985, Martial Law Administrator General Zia holds a non-party election, and
consequently, political parties were not allowed to contest the election, but only
independent candidates can contest the election. The non-party election introduced new
faces who were belonging to the landed aristocracy and business class. After the 1985 non-
party election, the personality role strengthened in electoral politics (Awan, 2016). In
Pakistan generally and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particularly the personality of candidate has
more influence on the voter choice. The most prominent personalities in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa are Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, Asfandiyar Wali Khan, Maulana Fazl-Ur-
Rehman, Mian Nisar Gul, Khalid Khan Mohmand, Saleem Saifullah, Anwar Saifullah,
Humayun Saifullah and Amir Haider Khan Hoti, Akram Khan Durani, Mehtab Abbasi,
Pervez Khatak, Bilor family, Amin Ali Gandapor, Sher Azam Wazir, Pir Sabir Shah, Amir
Muqam, Inayat Ullah Khan, Jamshed Khan Mohmand, Zia Ullah Afridi etc that have a
dominant role in the politics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
160
Aftab Ahmad Khan Sherpao, who is a popular politician of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
has personal influence in NA-8 Charsadda. In 2002, Aftab Sherpao left Pakistan Peoples
Party and established his own political party named Pakistan Peoples Party-Sherpao group.
He won the NA-8 seat in general elections 2002. In General Elections 2008, again he won
the NA-8 seat with majority votes. After 2008 election the party leadership renamed PPP-S
by Qaumi Watan Party. In General Elections 2013, Aftab Sherpao contested election from
QWP platform and bagged victory in NA-8. This whole scenario shows that the personal
influence of Aftab Sherpao is more than political party. However, in 2008 Pervez Khatak
contested election on PPP ticket, while in December 2011 he left PPP on some political
differences and switch to PTI. Pervez Khatak won the provincial assembly seat from
Nowshehra and became Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
In General Elections 2008, Khalid Khan Mohmand contested election as
independent candidate from PK-20 and secured the second position after ANP candidate.
However, in General Elections 2013, again he contested election as an independent
candidate but at the very last time of election campaign he joined Qaumi Watan Party and
won the PK-20 seat. Khalid Khan belonged to Mohmand tribe and majority of the voters of
PK-20 are Mohmand. Therefore, his personal influence and co-tribesmen support in election
played a key role in his victory. In general election 2018, Khalid Khan left QWP and joined
Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf and again won the provincial assembly seat.
In this part of the chapter an attempt is made to identify the influence of contesting
candidate on the voters. The dependent variable is correlated with other controlled
variables. The correlation of all variables is given below.
6.2.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned (see in Table-101), some of male and some of female
respondents avowed that vote should not be given on the basis of the candidate personality.
Conversely, a large number of male and female respondents argued that vote should be
161
given on the basis of candidate personality. However, a small number of male and female
respondents were undecided about this statement. In Pakhtun society women are dependent
on male family members. Therefore, their majority have tendency to support the personality
of candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the gender of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.
Table No.101
Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
Gender Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Male 129 140 69 240 48 626
11.5% 12.5% 6.1% 21.4% 4.3% 55.8%
Female 91 123 85 169 28 496
8.1% 11.0% 7.6% 15.1% 2.5% 44.2%
Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122
19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 12.012a, p-value=.017
6.2.2 Age Consideration
In Table-102, the correlation of the different age groups of respondent shows that, a small
number of the adults, youngsters, middle and old age respondents denied to vote a candidate
on the basis of personality. Conversely, we have found a major portion of adults, youth,
middle and old age respondents who accepted that vote should be given to a candidate on
the basis of personality. A small segment of adults, youth, middle age and old age
respondents show an unclear response about the personality of candidate. The P-value>0.05
of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the
respondents and influence of candidate personality.
162
Table No.102
Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
Age Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
18-23 36 47 31 81 14 209
3.2% 4.2% 2.8% 7.2% 1.2% 18.6%
23-27 45 46 29 66 15 201
4.0% 4.1% 2.6% 5.9% 1.3% 17.9%
27-32 37 50 21 79 10 197
3.3% 4.5% 1.9% 7.0% 0.9% 17.6%
32-37 32 33 18 50 10 143
2.9% 2.9% 1.6% 4.5% 0.9% 12.7%
37-42 39 37 17 43 10 146
3.5% 3.3% 1.5% 3.8% 0.9% 13.0%
42-50 14 23 21 48 10 116
1.2% 2.0% 1.9% 4.3% 0.9% 10.3%
Above
50
17 27 17 42 7 110
1.5% 2.4% 1.5% 3.7% 0.6% 9.8%
Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122
19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=21.798a, p-value=.591
6.2.3 Professional Consideration
Among the total respondents in Table-103, the major share of the respondents who denied
the influence of the candidate‟s personality was housewives and government servants.
However, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, non-government servants, farmers and
jobless respondents argued that they are not influence from the candidate‟s personality in
election.
A significant number of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-
government servants, farmers, jobless and house wives acknowledged that they are
influenced from the personality of the candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between the profession of the respondents
and influence of candidate personality.
Table No.103
Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
Profession Strongly
Disagree Disagree
Don‟t
know Agree
Strongly
Agree Total
Business 20 31 16 31 12 110
1.8% 2.8% 1.4% 2.8% 1.1% 9.8%
daily wage 15 11 12 52 5 95
1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 4.6% 0.4% 8.5%
Government
Servant
54 53 32 56 18 213
4.8% 4.7% 2.9% 5.0% 1.6% 19.0%
163
Non-
government
43 42 9 51 6 151
3.8% 3.7% .8% 4.5% 0.5% 13.5%
Farming 5 12 10 44 7 78
0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 3.9% 0.6% 7.0%
Unemployed 27 46 28 60 16 177
2.4% 4.1% 2.5% 5.3% 1.4% 15.8%
Housewives 56 68 47 115 12 298
5% 6.1% 4.2% 10.2% 1.1% 26.6%
Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122
19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=75.903a, p-value=.000
6.2.4 Economic Consideration
Social class has always remained very debatable in social science‟s discourse. Some social
scientists make its foundation only on economic strength of human life. However, others
also place their argument for the constitution of class based on some crisscrossing tangible
and intangible elements (income, education, environment, food, health, accommodation,
education etc.) of human social life. The second argument is appealing for making a strong
philosophical sense among social scientists while determining social class in human society.
Looking into the modern and global stratification system, social scientists determine social
class as a composition of socio-economic stratification of the people into different groups
(Jakopovich, 2014). According to United Nations (UN) poverty indexing report if a person
earn less than two (2$) US dollars per day are considered poor or lower income class. To
keep UN poverty index report as a scale the researcher have made a stratification of
different classes on the basis of monthly income in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Those people
who have monthly income below 10000 PKR are considered lower class. While those
whose monthly income is above 20000 to 50000 PKR is middle income class. Those
respondents whose monthly income is above is 50000 PKR are tag upper income class.
As far as monthly income is concerned in Table-104, a major portion of those
respondents who did not mention their monthly income and a quantity of lower and lower
middle class income disagree to vote a candidate on the basis of his personal influence. A
meager number of middle and upper class respondents rejected the opinion that vote should
164
be given on the basis of personality influence of candidate. However, a large number of
lower income class respondents expressed that vote should be given on the basis of
personality influence. Nonetheless a tiny portion of middle and upper class respondents
believed that vote should be given on the basis of personality of candidate. Moreover, a
large number of those respondents who did not mention their monthly income accepted the
opinion that vote should be given on the basis of personality of the candidate. The P-
value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the
income of the respondents and influence of candidate personality. Among the total
respondents, those respondents who have lowest monthly income were in majority to
support the candidate personality.
Table No. 104
Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
Monthly
income
Strongly
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Below 10,000 47 54 26 102 16 245
4.2% 4.8% 2.3% 9.1% 1.4% 21.8%
10000-20000 34 41 15 58 17 165
3.0% 3.7% 1.3% 5.2% 1.5% 14.7%
20000-30000 27 38 21 50 13 149
2.4% 3.4% 1.9% 4.5% 1.2% 13.3%
30000-40000 18 13 12 26 4 73
1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 2.3% 0.4% 6.5%
40000-50000 13 14 8 13 3 51
1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 4.5%
Above 50000 12 16 2 19 3 52
1.1% 1.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.6%
Don‟t know 69 87 70 141 20 387
6.1% 7.8% 6.2% 12.6% 1.8% 34.5%
Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122
19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=29.890a, p-value=.188
6.2.5 Educational Consideration
In terms of education (see in Table-105), among the respondents majority of graduate and
post-graduate level respondents were against the personality vote. While, some of the
primary, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents were also expressed their
opinion against personality influence. Moreover, we have found a quantity of illiterate
respondents who were against the influence of personality vote.
165
Conversely, some of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post-graduate
and illiterate respondents were in favour of personality vote. Majority of illiterate
respondents supported the personality of candidate. That shows their low level of political
education. The illiterate people did not read the newspaper and even they have no
understanding of politics. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant
which shows an association between the educational qualification of the respondents and
influence of candidate personality.
Table No.105 Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
Educational
qualification
Strongl
y
Disagr
ee
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Primary 19 14 10 27 9 79
1.7% 1.2% 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 7%
Middle 13 19 15 35 7 89
1.2% 1.7% 1.3% 3.1% 0.6% 7.9%
Matric 33 37 24 96 6 196
2.9% 3.3% 2.1% 8.6% 0.5% 17.5%
Intermediate 17 32 12 31 11 103
1.5% 2.9% 1.1% 2.8% 1% 9.2%
BA/BSc 39 45 26 58 13 181
3.5% 4.0% 2.3% 5.2% 1.2% 16.1%
MA/MSc 74 79 27 72 16 268
6.6% 7.0% 2.4% 6.4% 1.4% 23.9%
M.Phil 6 3 4 8 2 23
0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2%
Illiterate 19 34 36 82 12 183
1.7% 3.0% 3.2% 7.3% 1.1% 16.3%
Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122
19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=72.999a, p-value=.000
6.2.6 Regional Consideration
In Table-106, region wise opinion of the respondents regarding the personality vote, among
the total respondents some of the respondents of central region expressed their opinion
against the personality vote. However, the ratio of personality vote‟s support was higher in
northern and southern regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Besides that, among the total
respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa we have found
major ratio of the central region‟s support to personality vote. Some of the respondents of
166
southern and northern regions were also in favour of the personality vote. The P-value<0.05
of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the
geographical region of the respondents and influence of candidate personality.
Table No. 106
Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
Geograp
hical
Region
Strongly
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
North 92 132 48 82 26 380
8.2% 11.8% 4.3% 7.3% 2.3% 33.9%
Center 52 63 68 150 27 360
4.6% 5.6% 6.1% 13.4% 2.4% 32.1%
South 76 68 38 177 23 382
6.8% 6.1% 3.4% 15.8% 2.0% 34%
Total 220 263 154 409 76 1122
19.6% 23.4% 13.7% 36.5% 6.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=1.920E2a, p-value=.000
6.3 ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL STATUS OF THE CANDIDATE
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa majority of the people is belonging to lower or middle income
class. The common voters are facing several economic issues. Therefore, voters trusted on
those candidates who are economically sound. It is assumed that the voters support
economically strong candidates in elections because those candidates are economically
supporting poor people. Secondly, the candidate economic and political influence will help
them in the solution of their socio-economic problems. Likewise, Aftab Ahmad Khan
Sherpao provided jobs to a large number of the people of NA-8 (now NA-23) Charsadda.
Therefore, the whole family of the job holder is supporting Aftab Sherpao in election. MPA
Alamzeb Umarzai who belonged to a poor family but a large number of people of PK-22
was supporting him in General Elections 2008 (ECP, 2008). The voters supported Alamzeb
Umarzai because of his services to the society. MPA Maulana Muhammad Idrees who was
MMA candidate in General Elections 2002 won the election because he is a religious cleric
and Muntazim of a Madrassa. However, in General Elections 2013, Maulana Musammir
Shah of JUI-f secured the second largest votes in NA-8. In General Elections 2013, unlike
other parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Maulana Gohar Shah of JUI-F won the NA-7 seat and
167
defeated ANP president Asfandiyar Wali Khan (ECP, 2013). The religious factor of the
personality of a candidate is also convincing the voting behaviour of the people in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The question asked about the political and economic influence personality of
the candidate is correlated with the gender, age, profession, education, income and
geographical region. The correlations are given in the following sections.
6.3.1 Gender Consideration
Table-107 shows that, among the total respondents, we have found a major share of male
and female respondents disagree to vote economically and politically influential candidates.
Conversely, among the total respondents some of male and female respondents argued that
vote should be given to economically sound candidates. However, a small portion of male
and female respondents were undecided. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and
perception to vote economically sound candidate.
Table No.107
Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically
strong.
Gender Strongly
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Male 204 220 56 112 34 626
18.2% 19.6% 5% 10% 3% 55.8%
Female 131 159 75 101 30 496
11.7% 14.2% 6.7% 9% 2.7% 44.2%
Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122
29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100%
Chi-Square Test=14.431a, p-value=.006
6.3.2 Age Consideration
Age has great influence on the political opinion of an individual, as the age increases the
maturity level of an individual is also growing up. Table-108 shows that, respondents of
different age group have different opinion regarding the economic soundness and political
strength of the candidate. Among the total respondents a large number of adult and youth
disagree to support a financially and politically strong candidate in election. However, some
168
of the middle and old age respondents have similar opinion to oppose economically and
politically strong candidates in election.
Some of adults, youth, middle age and aged respondents considered that vote should
be given to the economically sound and political strong candidates in election. The P-
value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the
age of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.
Table No.108
Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically
strong.
Age Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
18-23 62 78 25 36 8 209
5.5% 7% 2.2% 3.2% 0.7% 18.6%
23-27 60 66 26 34 15 201
5.3% 5.9% 2.3% 3% 1.3% 17.9%
27-32 60 69 14 40 14 197
5.3% 6.1% 1.2% 3.6% 1.2% 17.6%
32-37 45 41 16 35 6 143
4.0% 3.7% 1.4% 3.1% 0.5% 12.7%
37-42 47 47 18 23 11 146
4.2% 4.2% 1.6% 2.0% 1.0% 13.0%
42-50 25 43 16 25 7 116
2.2% 3.8% 1.4% 2.2% 0.6% 10.3%
Above
50
36 35 16 20 3 110
3.2% 3.1% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 9.8%
Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122
29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19.0% 5.7% 100%
Chi-Square Test=21.851a, p-value=.588
6.3.3 Professional Consideration
The correlation of the professional affiliation of respondents (see in Table-109), a major
portion of government employees, housewives, non-government servants and jobless
respondents were of the opinion that vote should not cast to a rich and politically influential
candidates. Some of the businessmen, daily wagers, government servants and farmers
believe that vote should not give to wealthy candidates.
169
Apart from that, among the respondents a small portion of businessmen, daily
wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, housewives and jobless
respondents argued that vote should be given to economically sound candidate. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
the profession of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.
Table No.109
Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong.
Profession Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agre
e
Strongly
Agree
Total
Business 36 38 10 18 8 110
3.2% 3.4% 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 9.8%
Daily-wager 16 39 11 25 4 95
1.4% 3.5% 1.0% 2.2% 0.4% 8.5%
Government
Servant
76 71 25 28 13 213
6.8% 6.3% 2.2% 2.5% 1.2% 19.0%
Non-government 53 53 14 23 8 151
4.7% 4.7% 1.2% 2.0% 0.7% 13.5%
Farming 10 31 7 22 8 78
0.9% 2.8% 0.6% 2% 0.7% 7.0%
Unemployed 62 53 24 28 10 177
5.5% 4.7% 2.1% 2.5% 0.9% 15.8%
Housewives 82 94 40 69 13 298
7.3% 8.4% 3.6% 6.1% 1.2% 26.6%
Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122
29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 45.945a, p-value=.004
6.3.4 Economic Consideration
As far as economic status is concerned, among the total respondents a major portion of
lower and lower middle income class and a large number of those respondents who annoyed
to show their income stated that they are supporting the economically influential candidates
in elections. Although some of the respondents of middle and upper income class agree to
support the economically strong candidate (see in Table-110).
Regardless of that, among the respondents some of the lower, middle and upper
income class respondents accepted to vote that candidate who is economically strong.
Moreover, a large portion of the respondents who are supporting the rich and wealthy
candidates were those who did not mention their income. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-
170
Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the monthly income of the
respondents and perception to vote economically sound candidate.
Table No.110
Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong.
Monthly
income
Strongly
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Below
10,000
73 92 22 46 12 245
6.5% 8.2% 2.0% 4.1% 1.1% 21.8%
10000-20000 44 54 17 40 10 165
3.9% 4.8% 1.5% 3.6% 0.9% 14.7%
20000-30000 39 55 17 30 8 149
3.5% 4.9% 1.5% 2.7% 0.7% 13.3%
30000-40000 20 19 11 17 6 73
1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 6.5%
40000-50000 16 17 7 10 1 51
1.4% 1.5% .6% 0.9% 0.1% 4.5%
Above 50000 24 22 2 3 1 52
2.1% 2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6%
Don‟t know 119 120 55 67 26 387
10.6% 10.7% 4.9% 6% 2.3% 34.5%
Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122
29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 31.539a, p-value=.139
6.3.5 Educational Consideration
Education is playing an important role in the political awareness and shaping political
attitudes of an individual. In terms of education, among the total respondents a large number
of those respondents whose education levels are secondary school, graduate and post-
graduate disagree to vote a candidate who are economically and political influential in the
constituency. However, some of the primary and higher secondary school level said that
they did not support the influential candidates in election. Among the total respondents the
large ratio of illiterate respondents also denied to vote on the basis of strong economic status
(see in Table-111).
Apart from that, among the respondents some of the primary, secondary, higher
secondary, graduate, post-graduate respondents said that they vote to a candidate who is
economically and politically influential in the constituency. Nonetheless, some illiterate
respondents expressed their opinion in favour of those candidates who are economically and
171
politically prominent. The comparison of the literate and illiterate respondents shows that,
an illiterate people opinion is completely different from the literate people regarding the
selection of the candidate. The majority of the educated people are not supporting those
candidates who are economically influential in the constituency but illiterate people support
the influential candidates. Maybe the illiterate people trusted on the influential candidates
because they expecting support (economical and other) in their locality. The P-value<0.05
of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the
educational qualification of the respondents and perception to vote economically sound
candidate.
Table No. 111
Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong.
Educational
Qualification
Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Primary 25 24 6 17 7 79
2.2% 2.1% 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 7.0%
Middle 20 34 7 23 5 89
1.8% 3% 0.6% 2% 0.4% 7.9%
Matric 43 63 28 48 14 196
3.8% 5.6% 2.5% 4.3% 1.2% 17.5%
Intermediate 30 35 13 21 4 103
2.7% 3.1% 1.2% 1.9% 0.4% 9.2%
BA/BSc 54 60 19 37 11 181
4.8% 5.3% 1.7% 3.3% 1.0% 16.1%
MA/MSc 114 94 24 23 13 268
10.2% 8.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.2% 23.9%
M.Phil 8 8 2 5 0 23
0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.0%
Illiterate 41 61 32 39 10 183
3.7% 5.4% 2.9% 3.5% 0.9% 16.3%
Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122
29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 62.029a, p-value=.000
6.3.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a large
number of the respondents of centre, north and southern regions considered that vote should
be not given to economically and politically influential candidates. In opposition of this
view, among the total respondents some of the respondents of center, south and northern
172
geographical regions stated that they are supporting economically and politically strong
candidate in the constituency. However, a meager portion of the respondents were unclear
about their decision. A large number of the respondents of district Mardan and district
Chitral were favoring those candidates who are economically and politically stronger than
other candidates. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows
an association between the geographical region of the respondents and perception to vote
economically sound candidate (See Table-112).
Table No. 112
Vote should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically strong.
Geographic
al Region
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
North 112 137 40 66 25 380
10.0% 12.2% 3.6% 5.9% 2.2% 33.9%
Center 109 89 61 87 14 360
9.7% 7.9% 5.4% 7.8% 1.2% 32.1%
South 114 153 30 60 25 382
10.2% 13.6% 2.7% 5.3% 2.2% 34.0%
Total 335 379 131 213 64 1122
29.9% 33.8% 11.7% 19% 5.7% 100%
Chi-Square Test=38.423a, p-value=.000
6.4 CANDIDATE PARTICIPATION IN THE SOCIAL ACTIVITIES
In Pakhtun society it is assumed that, people are very sensitive about the social relations.
Those political figures that are actively participating in the funeral and wedding ceremonies
of the common people they have more respect in community. There is a common perception
among the people that those political leaders who are participating in the social activities of
other people have more personal support in elections. It is very common that if candidate
participate in the funeral or wedding ceremony of a single family member, he gets support
of the whole family. Therefore, candidate participation in the social activities of common
voters also improves his personal influence in that family or village. A question was asked
from the respondents about the contesting candidate participation in the joy and sorrow
173
(Gham aw Khadi) that is correlated with gender, age, qualification, income and
geographical regions. The results of each correlation are discussed below.
6.4.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned (see in Table-113), among the total respondents, some of male
and female respondents were against to vote a candidate on the basis of participation in the
social activities like joy and sorrows. On the other hand, we have found a large share of
male and female respondents who were in favour to support that candidate who joining the
sorrows and joys of other people. However, a small portion of male and some of female
voters were undecided. Gham aw Khadi (sorrow and joy) is an important element of
Pakhtunwali. Therefore, majority of the Pakhtuns are morally supporting that person who is
active in the participation of Gham and Khadi in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The P-value<0.05
of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender
of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates.
Table No.113
Chi-Square Test=18.024a, p-value=.001
6.4.2 Age Consideration
Among the respondent of different age categories, a small quantity of adults, youngsters,
middle and old age considered that vote should not be given to those candidates who are
socially active and participate in the joys and sorrows of common people. Nonetheless,
among the respondents a considerable number of teenagers, youth, middle and senior
Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy
(Gham Aw Khadi)?
Gender Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Male 58 91 44 277 156 626
5.2% 8.1% 3.9% 24.7% 13.9% 55.8%
Female 34 65 71 219 107 496
3.0% 5.8% 6.3% 19.5% 9.5% 44.2%
Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122
8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100%
174
respondents perceived that vote should be given to those contesting candidates who are
joining us in the sorrows and joys (Gham aw Khadi). The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square
test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and
perception to vote socially active candidates (See Table No.114).
Table No.114
Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy
(Gham Aw Khadi)?
Age Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
18-23 15 30 16 91 57 209
1.3% 2.7% 1.4% 8.1% 5.1% 18.6%
23-27 20 30 18 85 48 201
1.8% 2.7% 1.6% 7.6% 4.3% 17.9%
27-32 16 22 18 99 42 197
1.4% 2.0% 1.6% 8.8% 3.7% 17.6%
32-37 16 19 14 63 31 143
1.4% 1.7% 1.2% 5.6% 2.8% 12.7%
37-42 6 26 17 54 43 146
.5% 2.3% 1.5% 4.8% 3.8% 13.0%
42-50 7 15 18 52 24 116
.6% 1.3% 1.6% 4.6% 2.1% 10.3%
Above 50 12 14 14 52 18 110
1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 4.6% 1.6% 9.8%
Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122
8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100%
Chi-Square Test=26.973a, p-value=.306
6.4.3 Professional Consideration
The correlation of the professional affiliation of respondents shows that, the tiny portion of
businessmen, daily wagers, farmers, jobless, government servants, non-government
servants, housewives responded that vote should not give to those candidates who are
participation is social activities of the common people. Apart from that, we have found
some of businessmen, farmers and daily wagers agreed that vote should be not given to a
candidate on the basis of participation in social activities. While a significant number of
government servants, non-government servants, unemployed and housewives agree that
vote should be given to those candidates who are participating is social activities. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association between the
175
profession of the respondents and perception to vote socially active candidates (See Table
No.115).
Table No.115
Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham
Aw Khadi)?
Profession Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Business 16 15 9 45 25 110
1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 4.0% 2.2% 9.8%
Daily wager 3 13 9 41 29 95
0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 3.7% 2.6% 8.5%
Government
Servant
20 40 24 81 48 213
1.8% 3.6% 2.1% 7.2% 4.3% 19.0%
Non-
government
servant
18 22 12 73 26 151
1.6% 2% 1.1% 6.5% 2.3% 13.5%
Farming 8 8 7 30 25 78
0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 2.7% 2.2% 7.0%
Unemployed 12 22 12 86 45 177
1.1% 2.0% 1.1% 7.7% 4% 15.8%
Housewives 15 36 42 140 65 298
1.3% 3.2% 3.7% 12.5% 5.8% 26.6%
Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122
8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100%
Chi-Square Test=41.507a, p-value=.015
6.4.4 Economic Consideration
As far as economic condition is concerned (see in Table-116), among the total respondents a
some of the lower, lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper class income level
respondents said that they did not support a candidate who is socially active. Despite of that,
among the respondents a large number of lowest income group said that vote should be
given to that contesting candidate who participate in the joys and sorrows of the common
people. However, some of the lower middle, middle, upper income class and a large number
of those respondents who did not mention their monthly income asserted that vote should be
given to that candidate who participates in social activities of the common people. The data
describes a large number of the respondents of lower and lower middle income class who
support the candidate who is regularly participating in the social activities. It is assumed that
176
when a candidate participate in the social activity it is very easy for common people to meet
him. However, some people consider it an honour to meet a political figure in their locality.
Moreover, if a candidate belongs to the same tribe or kinship, his participation is more
appreciable in community. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which
shows no association between the income of the respondents and perception to vote socially
active candidates.
Table No.116
Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham
Aw Khadi)?
Monthly
income
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Below
10,000
16 30 22 102 75 245
1.4% 2.7% 2.0% 9.1% 6.7% 21.8%
10000-
20000
9 24 18 75 39 165
0.8% 2.1% 1.6% 6.7% 3.5% 14.7%
20000-
30000
18 22 11 66 32 149
1.6% 2.0% 1.0% 5.9% 2.9% 13.3%
30000-
40000
9 10 8 33 13 73
0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 2.9% 1.2% 6.5%
40000-
50000
6 7 5 28 5 51
0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 2.5% 0.4% 4.5%
Above
50000
7 13 2 20 10 52
0.6% 1.2% 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% 4.6%
Don‟t know 27 50 49 172 89 387
2.4% 4.5% 4.4% 15.3% 7.9% 34.5%
Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122
8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100%
Chi-Square Test=34.558a, p-value=.075
6.4.5 Educational Consideration
In terms of education (See in Table-117), among the total respondents a small portion of
primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post graduate and illiterate rejected the
perception that vote should be given on the basis of candidate participation in the social
activities (Gham aw Khadi). On the other hand, among the respondents some of primary
and higher secondary voters responded that vote should be given to that candidate who is
participating the social activities of the common people. However, a significant number of
secondary school, graduate and post graduate level respondents stated that vote should be
177
given to that candidate who are participating in social activities like sorrows and joys
(Gham aw Khadi). A large number of illiterate respondents were found who agreed that
vote should be given to that candidate who participates in joy and sorrow of the common
people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the educational qualification of the respondents and perception to vote
socially active candidates.
Table No. 117
Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and
joy (Gham Aw Khadi)?
Education Strongly
Disagree
Disag
ree
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Primary 10 3 15 31 20 79
0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 2.8% 1.8% 7.0%
Middle 3 5 5 44 32 89
0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 3.9% 2.9% 7.9%
Matric 4 35 22 86 49 196
.4% 3.1% 2.0% 7.7% 4.4% 17.5%
Intermedia
te
5 21 8 48 21 103
.4% 1.9% .7% 4.3% 1.9% 9.2%
BA/BSc 9 25 18 93 36 181
.8% 2.2% 1.6% 8.3% 3.2% 16.1%
MA/MSc 44 47 13 111 53 268
3.9% 4.2% 1.2% 9.9% 4.7% 23.9%
M.Phil 8 2 2 7 4 23
0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0%
Illiterate 9 18 32 76 48 183
0.8% 1.6% 2.9% 6.8% 4.3% 16.3%
Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122
8.2% 13.9
%
10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100%
Chi-Square Test=1.229E2a, p-value=.000
6.4.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a
considerable number of respondents of southern, central and northern geographical regions
agreed that vote should be given to those contesting candidates who are participating in our
sorrows and joys. On the other hand, a small portion of central, southern and northern
geographical regions respondents rejected the idea to vote to a candidate on the basis of
178
participation in the sorrows and joys of local people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square
test is highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region and
the vote on the basis of candidate participation in sorrows and joys (See Table No. 118).
Table No.118
Vote should be given to that candidate who is participating in our sorrow and joy (Gham Aw
Khadi)?
Geographical
Region
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t know Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
North 39 57 29 175 80 380
3.5% 5.1% 2.6% 15.6% 7.1% 33.9%
Center 29 54 46 169 62 360
2.6% 4.8% 4.1% 15.1% 5.5% 32.1%
South 24 45 40 152 121 382
2.1% 4% 3.6% 13.5% 10.8% 34%
Total 92 156 115 496 263 1122
8.2% 13.9% 10.2% 44.2% 23.4% 100%
Chi-Square Test=96.523a, p-value=.000
6.5 PARTY CANDIDATE VERSUS INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE
There are two types of contesting candidates in elections in Pakistan. One is political party
nominated candidates and the other is independent non-party candidates. After the
announcement of election schedule or in the end of the government tenure the political
parties issuing tickets to different candidates in different constituencies. Those candidates
who are contesting elections they are actually representing the label of their own political
parties. During election campaign, party candidates focusing on the party manifesto rather
than personal program.
Independent candidates, during election campaign are trying to highlight the local
issues and also use their personal influence in the constituency (Rais, 1985). However, the
voters are also divided into two parts. One is party affiliated voters and the other is non-
party voters. The party affiliated voters are those who have a strong attachment with a
political party and they are supporting the program and manifesto. The non-party voter
priorities are mostly their personal interests, local issues (road construction, drainage
system, job, streets) etc. Sometimes those voters are supporting that candidate who has
socio-economic and political influence in locality. The voters are expecting jobs,
179
construction of roads and streets. Voters are also expecting the candidate support in the
courts and police stations in difficult time. In this case, the personality of a candidate is
playing a significant role to attract the voter during the election. A question asked from the
respondents that, “vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party
candidate.”
6.5.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned (See Table-119), among the total respondents a large segment
of male and some of the female respondents perceived that they are supporting independent
candidates rather than party candidate. However, some of the male and female respondents
agreed that they vote to independent candidate rather than party candidate. A large number
of female respondents claimed that vote should be given to independent candidates rather
than party candidates that show the low level of political awareness of female respondents.
Latif et al (2015) argued that, “In a patriarchal society like Pakistan the participation of
women in political arena is very much in connection with males and how they perceive their
participation”. However, the constitution of Pakistan grants women free hand to participate
in politics but the socio-cultural barriers restricted them. Maybe the female respondents
don‟t know about the independent candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between the gender of the respondents and
decision to vote a contesting candidate.
Table No.119
Chi-Square Test=42.937a, p-value=.000
Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.
Gender Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Male 161 214 132 100 19 626
14.3% 19.1% 11.8% 8.9% 1.7% 55.8%
Female 64 148 155 101 28 496
5.7% 13.2% 13.8% 9.0% 2.5% 44.2%
Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122
20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%
180
6.5.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories, a great number of adults and youth
said that vote should be not given to an independent candidate. Although some of the
middle and old age respondents disagree to vote an independent candidate rather than party
candidate. Contrary to that, among the total respondents some of the adults, youth, middle
and old age respondents agreed to vote independent candidate rather than party candidate.
The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association
between the age of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate (See Table
No.120).
Table No.120
Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.
Age Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
18-23 36 75 46 37 15 209
3.2% 6.7% 4.1% 3.3% 1.3% 18.6%
23-27 42 60 56 35 8 201
3.7% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% .7% 17.9%
27-32 33 72 51 35 6 197
2.9% 6.4% 4.5% 3.1% .5% 17.6%
32-37 38 44 29 28 4 143
3.4% 3.9% 2.6% 2.5% .4% 12.7%
37-42 28 41 42 28 7 146
2.5% 3.7% 3.7% 2.5% .6% 13.0%
42-50 21 34 35 20 6 116
1.9% 3% 3.1% 1.8% .5% 10.3%
Above
50
27 36 28 18 1 110
2.4% 3.2% 2.5% 1.6% .1% 9.8%
Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122
20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test=24.036a, p-value=.460
6.5.3 Professional Consideration
As far as profession is concerned, a significant number of government and housewives
disagree to support an independent candidate. While some of businessmen, daily wagers,
non-government servants and farmers rejected the idea that vote should be given to
independent candidate rather than dependent candidate. On the other hand, we have found a
small ratio of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants,
181
farmers, unemployed and housewives accepted the idea that vote should be given to
independent candidate rather than party candidate ( See in Table-121). The P-value<0.05 of
the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession
of the respondents and decision to vote a contesting candidate.
Table No.121
Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.
Profession Strongly
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Business 30 38 18 19 5 110
2.7% 3.4% 1.6% 1.7% 0.4% 9.8%
daily wagers 21 35 24 10 5 95
1.9% 3.1% 2.1% .9% 0.4% 8.5%
Government
Servant
50 80 47 27 9 213
4.5% 7.1% 4.2% 2.4% 0.8% 19.0%
Non-
government
servant
21 50 43 33 4 151
1.9% 4.5% 3.8% 2.9% 0.4% 13.5%
Farming 15 28 13 20 2 78
1.3% 2.5% 1.2% 1.8% 0.2% 7.0%
Unemployed 43 51 42 30 11 177
3.8% 4.5% 3.7% 2.7% 1% 15.8%
Housewives 45 80 100 62 11 298
4% 7.1% 8.9% 5.5% 1.0% 26.6%
Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122
20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 49.145a, p-value=.002
6.5.4 Economic Consideration
Among the total respondents of different income (See Table-122), a large number of lower
income class and those who did not mention their monthly income stated that vote should
not be given to that candidate who contest election on party ticket rather than independent
candidate. Nonetheless, some of the lower middle, middle and upper income class
respondents also support the party candidates in election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Conversely, a small number of lower, middle and upper class candidate hold up the
independent candidates in election. Moreover, a significant quantity of the respondents who
did not mention their monthly income accepted that vote should be given to independent
candidates rather than party candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
182
significant which shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and
decision to vote a contesting candidate.
Table No.122
Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.
Monthly
Income
Strongly
Disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongl
y Agree
Total
Below
10,000
49 82 52 52 10 245
4.4% 7.3% 4.6% 4.6% 0.9% 21.8%
10000-20000 28 59 39 26 13 165
2.5% 5.3% 3.5% 2.3% 1.2% 14.7%
20000-30000 30 44 47 18 10 149
2.7% 3.9% 4.2% 1.6% 0.9% 13.3%
30000-40000 20 22 16 14 1 73
1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 6.5%
40000-50000 9 21 13 8 0 51
0.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.7% .0% 4.5%
Above 50000 19 24 5 4 0 52
1.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% .0% 4.6%
Don‟t know 70 110 115 79 13 387
6.2% 9.8% 10.2% 7% 1.2% 34.5%
Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122
20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 53.601a, p-value=.000
6.5.5 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See Table No. 123) a large
number of post graduate respondents disagree to support independent candidate rather than
party candidate in elections. However, some of the illiterate, primary, graduate, secondary
and higher secondary school level respondents disagree to vote an independent candidate
rather than party candidate.
A meager number of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post
graduate level respondents agree to vote independent candidates. Moreover, some of the
illiterate also agreed that vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party
candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the educational qualification of the respondents and decision to vote a
contesting candidate.
183
Table No.122
Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.
Educational
qualification
Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Primary 21 17 23 11 7 79
1.9% 1.5% 2% 1.0% 0.6% 7%
Middle 18 34 13 17 7 89
1.6% 3.0% 1.2% 1.5% 0.6% 7.9%
Matric 34 65 49 42 6 196
3.0% 5.8% 4.4% 3.7% 0.5% 17.5%
Intermediate 26 29 18 26 4 103
2.3% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 0.4% 9.2%
BA/BSc 35 59 50 30 7 181
3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.7% 0.6% 16.1%
MA/MSc 60 106 58 35 9 268
5.3% 9.4% 5.2% 3.1% 0.8% 23.9%
M.Phil 9 3 5 6 0 23
.8% .3% .4% .5% .0% 2.0%
Illiterate 22 49 71 34 7 183
2% 4.4% 6.3% 3% 0.6% 16.3%
Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122
20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 68.495a, p-value=.000
6.5.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (see
in Table-123), a considerable number of the respondents of northern, central and southern
zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa rejected the idea that vote should be given to independent
candidate rather than party candidate. Conversely, a small number of the respondents of
southern, central and northern regions accepted that vote should be given to independent
candidate. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the geographical region of the respondents and decision to vote a
contesting candidate.
184
Table No.123
Vote should be given to independent candidate rather than party candidate.
Geograp
hical
Region
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t know Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
North 90 132 86 53 19 380
8% 11.8% 7.7% 4.7% 1.7% 33.9%
Center 54 103 131 65 7 360
4.8% 9.2% 11.7% 5.8% 0.6% 32.1%
South 81 127 70 83 21 382
7.2% 11.3% 6.2% 7.4% 1.9% 34%
Total 225 362 287 201 47 1122
20.1% 32.3% 25.6% 17.9% 4.2% 100%
Chi-Square Test=48.184a, p-value=.000
6.6 THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORT ON VOTERS
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, many polling stations are located in far-flung areas. Therefore,
some of the voters could not afford to go there and cast their vote (Rauf and Hassan, 2015).
A major portion of female voters did not cast their vote because of lack of transportation.
Eventually, the contesting candidates or political party provide transportation to those voters
who are far-away from polling stations. It is also observed that non-party voters or those
voters who decide to vote on polling day swayed to vote that candidate who provides
transport. Those contesting candidates who provide transport facility on polling day are
considered a positive sign of his/her personality. It is also believed that the particular
candidate is economically stable. Those candidates who provide transport facility in that
short time may also influence the non-party or floating voters‟ decision to vote.
To know the respondents' reaction on transportation facility provided to them on
polling day a question was asked during a survey. The response of the voters is correlated
with gender, age, profession, education, income and geographical regions.
6.6.1 Gender Consideration
As for as gender is concerned (See in Table-124), among the total respondents, a large
number of men and women disagree to vote that candidate who provides transport in an
election. However, some of the male and female agree to vote that candidate who can
185
provide transport facility on polling day. We can see some of the female voters who are
supporting those candidates who can provide transport facility on election day. Otherwise,
the female voters cannot go to cast their vote in a remote polling station. The P-value<0.05
of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the gender
of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections
day.
Table No. 124 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters
on elections day.
Gender Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Male 267 192 55 80 32 626
23.8% 17.1% 4.9% 7.1% 2.9% 55.8%
Female 173 145 86 70 22 496
15.4% 12.9% 7.7% 6.2% 2.0% 44.2%
Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122
39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100%
Chi-square Test= 21.193a, p-value=.000
6.6.2 Age Consideration
In terms of age (See in Table-125), a large number of youngsters and middle age
respondents argued that vote should be given to that candidate who provides transport
facility on election day. While some of the youngsters, middle age and aged respondents
agree to vote that candidate who provides transport. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square
test is insignificant which shows no association between the age of the respondents and
support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.
Table No. 125 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on
elections day.
Age Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
18-23 83 58 14 38 16 209
7.4% 5.2% 1.2% 3.4% 1.4% 18.6%
23-27 81 56 25 26 13 201
7.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 17.9%
27-32 81 55 34 23 4 197
7.2% 4.9% 3.0% 2.0% 0.4% 17.6%
32-37 57 50 20 12 4 143
5.1% 4.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 12.7%
186
37-42 62 44 14 19 7 146
5.5% 3.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.6% 13.0%
42-50 39 33 20 18 6 116
3.5% 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.5% 10.3%
Above
50
37 41 14 14 4 110
3.3% 3.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 9.8%
Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122
39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 35.615a, p-value=.060
6.6.3 Professional Consideration
Among the total respondents of different professional affiliation (See in Table-126), a huge
number of government employees disagree to support that candidate who provides
transportation on polling day. Maybe the government employees are economically
independent and they afford to go polling station by their own expenditure. On the other
hand, a significant number of non-government servants, housewives and unemployed
respondents also disagree to vote those candidates who make available transportation.
However, some of the businessmen, jobless, housewives, government and non-government
servants accepted to vote that candidate who offers transportation. The P-value<0.05 of the
Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the profession of
the respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections
day.
Table No.126 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on
elections day.
Profession Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Business 44 32 17 11 6 110
3.9% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 9.8%
daily wage 29 26 11 19 10 95
2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 1.7% 0.9% 8.5%
Government
Servant
104 71 21 12 5 213
9.3% 6.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 19.0%
Non-
government
74 49 14 6 8 151
6.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 13.5%
Farming 19 22 7 28 2 78
1.7% 2.0% 0.6% 2.5% 0.2% 7.0%
Unemployed 73 49 21 26 8 177
187
6.5% 4.4% 1.9% 2.3% 0.7% 15.8%
Housewives 97 88 50 48 15 298
8.6% 7.8% 4.5% 4.3% 1.3% 26.6%
Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122
39.2% 30.0% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 93.953a, p-value=.000
6.6.4 Income Consideration
In terms of income (See in Table-127), a major portion of lower, middle and upper-income
class respondents disagree to vote that candidate who provides means of transportation in an
election. On the other hand, a significant number of the respondents of lower income class
agree to vote that candidate who offers transportation on election day. It is observed that in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a considerable number of lower income class have weak political
loyalties than upper-income class. Therefore, maybe to vote a candidate on providing
transport is possible. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between the monthly income of the respondents and support to that
candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.
Table No. 127 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on elections
day.
Monthly
income
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Below
10,000
90 63 26 51 15 245
8.0% 5.6% 2.3% 4.5% 1.3% 21.8%
10000-
20000
57 60 18 22 8 165
5.1% 5.3% 1.6% 2.0% 0.7% 14.7%
20000-
30000
79 42 18 7 3 149
7% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 13.3%
30000-
40000
33 21 6 9 4 73
2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 6.5%
40000-
50000
20 21 8 0 2 51
1.8% 1.9% .7% .0% 0.2% 4.5%
Above
50000
30 15 2 4 1 52
2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
131 115 63 57 21 387
11.7% 10.2% 5.6% 5.1% 1.9% 34.5%
Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122
39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test= 64.538a, p-value=.000
188
6.6.5 Educational Consideration
As far as education is concerned (See Table-128), among the total respondents, a large
number of post-graduate level respondents denied to vote a candidate on the basis of
transportation on polling day. It shows that the education level of an individual improves
his/er political maturity and prospects about politics. We can see a different perception of
the highly educated respondents about the vote decision and illiterate respondents.
However, some of the educated and a large number of illiterate respondents agree to vote a
candidate who can provide transportation for voters on election day. The P-value<0.05 of
the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the
educational qualification of the respondents and support to that candidate who provides
transport facility on elections day.
Table No.128 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on
elections day.
Education Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
Primary 31 19 14 7 8 79
2.8% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% 7%
Middle 27 26 9 19 8 89
2.4% 2.3% 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 7.9%
Matric 65 56 23 42 10 196
5.8% 5% 2% 3.7% 0.9% 17.5%
Intermediat
e
46 38 13 5 1 103
4.1% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 9.2%
BA/BSc 78 56 22 17 8 181
7% 5% 2% 1.5% 0.7% 16.1%
MA/MSc 139 87 19 12 11 268
12.4% 7.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1% 23.9%
M.Phil 11 7 2 3 0 23
1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% .0% 2%
Illiterate 43 48 39 45 8 183
3.8% 4.3% 3.5% 4.0% .7% 16.3%
Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122
39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=1.205E2a, p-value=.000
189
6.6.6 Regional Consideration
The opinion of the respondents of different geographical regions in Table-129 shows that
majority of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions denied to vote a
candidate who provides transportation for voters on polling day. On the other hand, a small
number of the respondents of northern, central and southern regions respondents agree to
vote a candidate who offers transportation. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between the geographical region of the
respondents and support to that candidate who provides transport facility on elections day.
Table No. 129 Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on
elections day.
Geograp
hical
Region
Strongly
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Strongly
Agree
Total
North 183 127 31 21 18 380
16.3% 11.3% 2.8% 1.9% 1.6% 33.9%
Center 131 110 70 40 9 360
11.7% 9.8% 6.2% 3.6% 0.8% 32.1%
South 126 100 40 89 27 382
11.2% 8.9% 3.6% 7.9% 2.4% 34.0%
Total 440 337 141 150 54 1122
39.2% 30% 12.6% 13.4% 4.8% 100%
Chi-Square Test=91.473a, p-value=.000
Summary
In some of the developing countries, it is assumed that some political personalities are
emerged in a short time because of authoritarian, non-democratic, personalized civilian and
military laws. Like other developing countries of the globe, Pakistani politics and political
parties are also personality oriented. Majority of the political parties are controlled by a few
personalities. Apart from that, the socio-political and economic structure of developing
societies is underdeveloped and instable. Therefore, their political values are moving around
the influential personalities in a society. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, we can find a large
number of political influential personalities in the political landscape. Therefore, the
influence of personality is a very important determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber
190
Pakhtunkhwa. In chapter Two, we can see that there are a large number of candidates who
contesting elections independently from different constituencies. There are many
independently elected candidates in different election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The votes of
independent candidates are mostly based on their personal influence (social, political and
economic) in the constituency.
Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality is operationalized through socio-economic
and political variables. Among the total respondents, a large number of respondents said,
that vote should be given on the basis of the personality of a candidate rather than political
party. Secondly, a significant number of respondents agreed that the vote should be given to
that candidate who is participating in the social activities (Gham aw Khadi) of common
people. Thirdly, a significant number of respondents stated that the vote should be given to
that candidate who is economically and politically strong. In the fourth indicator we have
found some of the respondents who said that vote should be given to an independent
candidate rather than political party. Moreover, we have found a large number of adults and
young age respondents who are influenced by the personality of the candidate. Lastly, some
of the respondents support a candidate because he provides transportation in election. The
findings of the study depict that personality of candidate playing paramount role in
determining the voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
191
CHAPTER – 7
ISSUE VOTING MODEL
7.1 INTRODUCTION
On some occasions, political preferences are made on the basis of issues rather than party
affiliation and personality voting. In such cases, contesting candidates focus on the major
issues in election campaigns. During election campaigns politicians sensitize the local
issues and discuss it in public gatherings. These politicians present different stances about
such issues. It is argued that an appealing stance towards an issue increases candidate‟s
support in elections.
Adams & Samuel (2005) explored that issue voting model is one of the significant
models of voting behaviour. Curtice (2002) and Lau and Redlawsk (2006) studies
highlighted the importance of issue model voting. It is also opined that higher level of
polarization in political parties strengthens the ratio of issue voting (Alvarez and Nagler,
2004). Political parties‟ are polarized on different local and national issues. As a result of
that polarization, argues Lachat (2011), that elections are fragmented and polarized.
Similarly, political parties have a different approach towards the resolution of an issue. In
1970s, Pakistan People Party introduced nationalization program while Pakistan Muslim
League, Jama‟at-e-Islami (JI), Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI) and other political parties were
against the nationalization program. Consequently, voters were also polarized, because the
PPP supporters were in favour of nationalization program and the rest were against it. Later
on, PPP changed the nationalization policy because of the socio-economic and political
developments in the country in 1990s.
In a multi-party system voters face a diversity of political parties who advocate
different political positions on local and international issues. The competition in elections
among political parties is tough if the number of actors involved is higher in the
constituency. These facets of competitiveness among political parties are expected to make
192
„issue voting‟ stronger in a community. Lachat (2011) stated that „issue voting‟ affects the
political parties‟ mobilization strategies. He argued that political parties‟ manifestoes focus
on issues rather than political ideology. Thomassen and Schmitt (1997) study also figures
out that political issues play a centralized role in political representation. Besides, elections
are considered as a bridge between masses and lawmakers (MNAs and MPAs). Powell
(2004) argued that the ideological relationship between voters and candidates is an essential
criterion for the assessment of a political system and public interests. Lachat (2011) linked
„issue voting‟ with „Spatial Model‟ of voting behaviour. However, „Proximity Model‟ is
applicable because in this model political parties usually try to increase vote bank.
Westholm (1997) explains „Proximity model‟ in which voters support those candidates who
are closest in political space. There are two interpretations of closeness: firstly the candidate
residence and secondly availability and accessibility. It is assumed that a common voter has
limited information about parties‟ position on different issues. Therefore, uninformed voters
invest limited cognitive resources in their political preferences (Zaller, 1992; Bartels, 1996).
Some voters are engaged in a rational comparison of the political parties‟ position on
different issues while many voters depend on simple decision-making strategies about
political choice. Lachat (2011) argued that electoral preferences are often directed by
„heuristics‟, that is, accessible facts about the political party and issues. A voter can easily
evaluate the performance of a political party on a particular issue without processing bulky
information. Lau and Redlawsk (2006) study figures out that many voters trust in the
stereotypes about political parties and, therefore, support that party‟s candidate in elections.
Nevertheless, Conover (1985) explored that an important alternative is „single-issue
voting.‟ Single issue voting is a simplified form of „issue voting,‟ where citizens focus only
on the most important issue. Lau and Redlawsk (2006) identified a similar method of
decision-making strategy, while Green‟s (2007) model of „Issue Ownership‟ points out that
voting choice of voters is based on party capability to resolve the issue. The „single-issue
193
voter model‟ is based on the voter decision to support a single political party because a
voter supposes that party „A‟ has the ability to handle that issue properly as compared to
other parties. In single-issue voter model, voter‟s political choice is based on issues where
he/she does not require any evaluation of political parties.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the main issues are terrorism, militancy, insecurity, load-
shedding, corruption, poverty, unemployment, illiteracy etc. The issue based voters try to
identify a political party that can address all these issues remarkably. In General Elections
2013 the voters overwhelmingly supported Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), because its
slogan was „Change.‟ The common people, thus, expected some drastic changes during PTI
government. According to this explanation, if PTI fails to fulfill the expectation of the
voters regarding these issues, another party might take the lead.
7.1.1 Political Parties and Issues Politics
Various research studies on party competition have highlighted selective issues politics in
various countries. Similarly, many political parties‟ mobilization strategies focus on
selective issues (Budge and Farlie, 1983). In fact, issue competition has a significant impact
on voting, but question arises as to why a certain issue is more prioritized? John Petrocik‟s
„Issue Ownership Theory‟ may potentially answer this question. He opines, “a campaign
effect exists when a candidate successfully frames the vote choice as a decision to be made
in terms of problems facing the country that he is better able to handle than his opponent”
(Petrocik, 1996:826). Moreover, Ardoin (2013) argued that voters evaluate political party
on the basis of past performance. On the other hand, “The Riding Wave Theory” illustrated
that political parties primarily focus those issues that attract voters‟ attention in elections.
Ansolabehere & Iyengar (1994) argue that “candidates will pay more attention to the issues
salient to the public, disregarding their ability to handle those issues”. Belanger & Meguid
(2008) and Mayer & Tiberj (2004) empirically tested the importance of issue salience and
issue ownership theory. On the basis of this discussion we can say that issue ownership and
194
issue salience influence voting behaviour in different countries. This study attempts to
identify the impacts of issues on voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
7.2 ISSUE AND VOTE CHOICE IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
Presently the main issues of Pakistan are terrorism, militancy, poverty, corruption,
insecurity, unemployment, sectarianism, scarcity of drinking water, injustice, illiteracy, lack
of health facilities and energy crisis (International Growth Services, 2017). Similarly, like
other provinces of Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has many of these issues. During the
election campaign, the contesting candidates highlight the local and national issues and
offer a way out. Those contesting candidates who focus on local issues (constituency issues)
get more support in their constituencies. Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) elections campaign
started with „Change‟ and „Naya Pakistan‟ (new Pakistan).31 PTI leadership argues that
“Change as a buzzword was connected with President Obama, so we had to come up with a
slogan that defined change” (Khan, 2013). The PTI candidates during election campaign
speeches blamed both central and provincial governments as responsible for bad
governance. They promised that they will bring administrative reforms in the organizational
structures of the institutions. The chairman of Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan
due to his previous philanthropist contribution to the society made a place in the hearts of
the people. Therefore, in General Elections 2013, a large number of voters supported him
and his party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Awami National Party‟s (ANP) manifesto focused
on militancy and the question of provincial autonomy. During 2013 general elections,
Tehreek-e-Taliban-Pakistan‟s (TTP) threats to ANP candidates and leadership limited their
political activities and campaign (The Guardian, 14 April, 2013). As a result, ANP
leadership could not get the opportunity to defend the party against the corruption
allegations in election campaign. During the election campaign ANP could not demonstrate
their performance by projecting their developmental works properly in Khyber
31
For details see Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf manifesto 2013.
195
Pakhtunkhwa. In general elections 2013, Jamiat-Ulema-Islam-(F) candidates promised the
voters that they would protect Islam and introduce „Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. Jamaat-i-Islami
(JI) also published a twenty nine (29) reforms agenda addressing issues like unemployment,
feudal system, terrorism, lawlessness, education etc (Dawn, April 5, 2013). Similarly,
Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), Qawmi Watan Party (QWP), Pakistan People Party
(PPP) and other political parties also designed their manifestos and rhetoric on the local and
national issues. Alongside, the party candidates and various independent ones also
campaigned on the issues of constituency only.
7.3 RESPONDENTS AND ISSUES IDENTIFICATION
Since 9/11 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is one of the vulnerable provinces of Pakistan. As a result
of US-led war against terrorism in Afghanistan and the region affected the economic, social
and political fabrics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These negative impacts of war against terror
provided ways to different issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The most prominent issues of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in this period comprised militancy, load-shedding (energy crisis),
unemployment, poverty, injustice, corruption etc. Anthony Downs (1957) argues that
voters‟ cognition about the issues provides them the basis to decide to vote a political party
or candidate who can resolve these issues. The researchers asked about the local and
national issues from the respondents. A significant number of respondents reacted that more
than five kinds of issues were still present in our society.
Among the total respondents 27% said that terrorism was the main issue of the
society while 10% as corruption. Similarly, 6% unemployment, 6% load-shedding (energy
crisis), 8% poverty, and 10% illiteracy as the main issues facing the society. Moreover, 33%
respondents agreed that in the given list they have more than five issues in their locality. In
figure-1 opinions of the respondents are shown in percentage.
196
Figure-3
To know the perception of the respondents the researcher asked that, “Vote should be given
to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis”.
The response is correlated with the gender, age, profession, income, marital status
education, geographical regions.
7.3.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned (See in Table-130), among the total respondents a major
portion of male respondents and female respondents said that, the vote should be given to
that political party that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis.
However, a minor portion of male and female respondents denied voting to a political party
on the basis of local issues. Majority of the male and female respondents agree that vote
should be given to that political party that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no
association between the gender of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on
the basis of issues.
Terrorism 27%
Corruption 10%
Load-Shiding 6%
Unemployment 6%
Poverty 8%
Illiteracy 10%
More than five issues 33%
197
Table No. 130
Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism
and energy crisis.
Gender Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
Male 12 18 33 282 281 626
1.1% 1.6% 2.9% 25.1% 25.0% 55.8%
Female 9 17 36 219 215 496
.8% 1.5% 3.2% 19.5% 19.2% 44.2%
Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122
1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100%
Chi-square test=2.260a, p-value=.688
7.3.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories, a large number of adults and youth
believed that vote should be given to those political parties who can eliminate the local and
national issues. While a significant number of middle age and elders also said that, the vote
should be given to that political party that can eliminate terrorism, poverty, ignorance and
energy crisis (See in Table No. 131).
Contrary to that, a minor portion of adults, youth, middle age and aged respondents
denied to vote a political party on the basis of local issues. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between the age of the
respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.
Table No. 131
Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism
and energy crisis.
Age Extremely
Disagree Disagree
Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
18-23 8 7 8 96 90 209
0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 8.6% 8.0% 18.6%
23-27 2 6 19 82 92 201
0.2% 0.5% 1.7% 7.3% 8.2% 17.9%
27-32 2 7 21 84 83 197
0.2% 0.6% 1.9% 7.5% 7.4% 17.6%
32-37 3 6 8 65 61 143
0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 5.8% 5.4% 12.7%
37-42 1 5 8 71 61 146
0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 6.3% 5.4% 13%
42-50 2 0 2 55 57 116
0.2% .0% 0.2% 4.9% 5.1% 10.3%
Above 50 3 4 3 48 52 110
0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 4.3% 4.6% 9.8%
Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122
1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100%
Chi-square test= 32.983a, p-value=.104
198
7.3.3 Professional Consideration
As far as profession is concerned (See in Table-132), a large number of government
servants, non-government servants, jobless and housewives proclaimed that vote should be
given to that political party that can eliminate the local and national issues. However, some
of the Businessmen, daily wagers and farmers agreed that vote should be given to that
political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.
A minor portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-
government servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives disagreed that vote should be
given to a political party on the basis of elimination of local issues. The P-value>0.05 of the
Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between the profession of the
respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of issues.
Table No.132
Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis.
Profession Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Extremel
y Agree
Total
Business 4 10 8 45 43 110
0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 4.0% 3.8% 9.8%
Daily wager 2 4 8 45 36 95
0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 4.0% 3.2% 8.5%
Government Servant 2 8 9 98 96 213
0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 8.7% 8.6% 19.0%
Non-government
servant
1 1 9 65 75 151
0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 5.8% 6.7% 13.5%
Farmers 0 2 3 41 32 78
.0% 0.2% 0.3% 3.7% 2.9% 7.0%
Unemployed 5 3 14 72 83 177
0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 6.4% 7.4% 15.8%
Housewives 7 7 18 135 131 298
0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 12.0% 11.7% 26.6%
Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122
1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100%
Chi-square test=33.985a, p-value=.085
7.3.4 Income Consideration
Among the total respondents of different income groups (See in Table-133), a significant
number of lower and middle income class respondents said that vote should be given to that
political party that can eliminate poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis. However, a
minor portion of upper income class also stated that vote should be given to that political
199
party that can poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis. Moreover, a huge number of
the respondents who did not mention their monthly income responded that vote should be
given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy
crisis.
Conversely, a minor portion of lower, middle and upper class respondents said that
vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the local issues. A major
portion of the respondents whose monthly income was below 10,000 and those who did not
mention their monthly income were favouring the political parties on the basis of issues.
The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association
between the income of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis of
issues.
Table No. 133
Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty,
ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis.
Monthly
Income
Extremely
Disagree
Disag
ree
Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
Below 10,000 4 12 17 106 106 245
0.4% 1.1% 1.5% 9.4% 9.4% 21.8%
10000-20000 3 6 8 73 75 165
0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 6.5% 6.7% 14.7%
20000-30000 0 4 12 73 60 149
0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 6.5% 5.3% 13.3%
30000-40000 1 2 7 31 32 73
0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 2.8% 2.9% 6.5%
40000-50000 2 0 2 28 19 51
0.2% .0% 0.2% 2.5% 1.7% 4.5%
Above 50000 0 2 1 22 27 52
0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2% 2.4% 4.6%
Don‟t know 11 9 22 168 177 387
1% 0.8% 2% 15% 15.8% 34.5%
Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122
1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100%
Chi-square test=21.596a, p-value=.603
7.2.5 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See in Table-134), a large
number of graduates, post graduate and secondary school level respondents stated that vote
should be given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty, terrorism, ignorance
and energy crisis. Likewise, some of primary, higher secondary school level respondents
200
agreed to vote that political party that can eliminate the local and national issues of
Pakistan. Beside the educated respondents a huge number of illiterate respondents also
agreed that vote should be given to that political party that can eliminate the poverty,
terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.
A meager portion of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate and post
graduate level respondents denied voting a political party on the basis of elimination of
local issues. In the data we have found a large number of the illiterate respondents opined
that they support that political party that can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between the educational qualification of the respondents and casting vote to a
political party on the basis of issues.
Table No. 134
Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance,
terrorism and energy crisis.
Educational
qualification
Extremel
y
Disagree
Disagr
ee
Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
Primary 5 4 5 34 31 79
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 3% 2.8% 7%
Middle 0 7 3 52 27 89
0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 4.6% 2.4% 7.9%
Matric 3 12 21 79 81 196
0.3% 1.1% 1.9% 7% 7.2% 17.5%
Intermediate 3 3 13 31 53 103
0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 2.8% 4.7% 9.2%
BA/BSc 3 1 8 78 91 181
0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 7% 8.1% 16.1%
MA/MSc 5 6 9 118 130 268
0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 10.5% 11.6% 23.9%
M.Phil 0 0 0 9 14 23
0.0% .0% .0% 0.8% 1.2% 2%
Illiterate 2 2 10 100 69 183
0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 8.9% 6.1% 16.3%
Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122
1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100%
Chi-square test= 78.770a, p-value=.000
7.2.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa presented in
Table-135, a major share of the respondents of southern regions stated that vote should be to
that political party that can eliminate the local and national issues. Although a significant
201
number of the respondents of central and northern regions accepted that vote should be
given to that political party that can eliminate the local issues.
In contrary to that, a minor portion of the respondents of southern, central and
northern differ to vote a political party on the basis of elimination of local issues and
national issues. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows
an association between the geographical region of the respondents and casting vote to a
political party on the basis of issues.
Table No. 135
Vote should be given to that political party which can eradicate poverty, ignorance, terrorism
and energy crisis.
Geographic
al Region
Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
North 15 3 22 157 183 380
1.3% 0.3% 2.0% 14.0% 16.3% 33.9%
Center 4 9 20 153 174 360
0.4% 0.8% 1.8% 13.6% 15.5% 32.1%
South 2 23 27 191 139 382
0.2% 2.0% 2.4% 17.0% 12.4% 34%
Total 21 35 69 501 496 1122
1.9% 3.1% 6.1% 44.7% 44.2% 100%
Chi-square test=43.525a, p-value=.000
7.4 VOTING ON THE BASIS OF LOCAL (CONSTITUENCY) ISSUES
The advocates of „Issue Ownership Theory‟ of voting opined that voters recognize the
political party that can resolve a particular issue and they recognize the competency of that
party in connection with a particular issue in a constituency. Therefore, voters support that
political party in election (Belanger and Meguid, 2008). The researcher asked from the
respondent about the political party s/he voted in General Elections 2013, that whether, „We
need to vote that political party which can resolve the issues of our constituency. The
reaction of the respondents are correlated with gender, age, profession, education, income
and geographical regions.
7.4.1 Gender Consideration
In terms of gender (See in Table-136), among the total respondents, a huge number of male
and female respondents said that we need to support that political party that can resolve the
202
problems of our area. However, some of the male and female respondents denied the
support of a political party that can resolve the problems of our constituency. Majority of
the male and female respondents opined that we need to vote that political party that can
resolve the problems of our constituency. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and casting vote
to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.
Table No. 136
We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and
issues of our constituency.
Gender Extremel
y
disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Extremel
y Agree
Total
Male 34 37 33 298 224 626
3.0% 3.3% 2.9% 26.6% 20.0% 55.8%
Female 14 20 43 245 174 496
1.2% 1.8% 3.8% 21.8% 15.5% 44.2%
Total 48 57 76 543 398 1122
4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100%
Chi-square test=11.263a, p-value=.024
7.4.2 Age Consideration
The age of an individual is playing an important role in shaping his/er political insight.
Among the total respondents, the highest ratio of the adults and youth stated that political
party which can resolve the problems of constituency should support in election. However,
a considerable number of middle age and elders agreed that vote should be given to that
political party that can solve the problems of the constituency (See Table No. 137).
However, among the total respondents a meager number of adults, middle and old
age respondents have a different view and they oppose to support that political party that
can resolve the local issues. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which
shows no association between age of the respondents and casting vote to a political party on
the basis to solve the local problems.
203
Table No. 137
We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our
constituency.
Age Extremely
disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
18-23 10 7 17 102 73 209
0.9% 0.6% 1.5% 9.1% 6.5% 18.6%
23-27 6 19 13 95 68 201
0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 8.5% 6.1% 17.9%
27-32 9 8 14 95 71 197
0.8% 0.7% 1.2% 8.5% 6.3% 17.6%
32-37 9 7 9 72 46 143
0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 6.4% 4.1% 12.7%
37-42 2 6 9 69 60 146
0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 6.1% 5.3% 13.0%
42-50 6 2 11 51 46 116
0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 4.5% 4.1% 10.3%
Above 50 6 8 3 59 34 110
0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 5.3% 3.0% 9.8%
Total 48 57 76 543 398 1122
4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100%
Chi-square test=27.991a, p-value=.260
7.4.3 Professional Consideration
As far as profession is concerned (See in Table-138), a large number of government
servants, non-government servants, jobless respondents and housewives opine that vote
should be given to that political party that can eliminate the issues of the local constituency.
However, a significant number of the businessmen, daily wagers, farmers alleged that they
are supporting those political parties that can resolve the local problems.
A tiny portion of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government
servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives rejected that vote should be given to that
political party that resolve the problems of constituency. The data shows that a large number
of the unemployed, government servants and housewives responded that we need to vote
that political party that can eradicate the problems of our constituency. The P-value>0.05 of
the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between profession of the
respondents and casting vote to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.
204
Table No. 138
We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our
constituency.
Profession Extreme
ly
disagree
Disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
Business 6 9 8 47 40 110
0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 4.2% 3.6% 9.8%
Daily-wagers 7 10 10 39 29 95
0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 3.5% 2.6% 8.5%
Government Servant 11 12 19 97 74 213
1.0% 1.1% 1.7% 8.6% 6.6% 19.0%
Non-government
servant
4 5 13 74 55 151
0.4% 0.4% 1.2% 6.6% 4.9% 13.5%
Farmers 3 3 4 33 35 78
0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 2.9% 3.1% 7.0%
Unemployed 5 6 8 99 59 177
0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 8.8% 5.3% 15.8%
Housewives 12 12 14 154 106 298
1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 13.7% 9.4% 26.6%
Total 48 57 76 543 398 1122
4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100%
Chi-square test=31.494a, p-value=.140
7.4.4 Income Consideration
Among the total respondents of different income (See in Table-139), we have found a major
share of the lower class respondents and those who did not mention their monthly income
agree to vote that political party that can resolve the local issues of constituency.
Nonetheless, a sizeable number of lower middle, middle and upper income class voters
responded that vote should be given to that political party that can resolve the problems of
the constituency.
Contrary to that, a meager number of lower, lower middle, middle and upper
income class respondents denied voting to that political party that can resolve the problems
of the area. Majority of the respondents whose monthly income were below 10,000 reacted
that vote should be given to that political party that can resolve the problems of the
constituency. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no
association between monthly income of the respondents and casting vote to a political party
on the basis to solve the local problems.
205
Table No. 139
We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency.
Monthly Income Extremely
disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
Below 10,000 11 15 18 118 83 245
1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 10.5% 7.4% 21.8%
10000-20000 7 9 15 83 51 165
0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 7.4% 4.5% 14.7%
20000-30000 9 12 12 59 57 149
0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 5.3% 5.1% 13.3%
30000-40000 2 3 6 35 27 73
0.2% 0.3% .5% 3.1% 2.4% 6.5%
40000-50000 1 2 1 30 17 51
0.1% 0.2% .1% 2.7% 1.5% 4.5%
Above 50000 3 1 1 28 19 52
0.3% 0.1% .1% 2.5% 1.7% 4.6%
Don‟t know 15 15 23 190 144 387
1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 16.9% 12.8% 34.5%
Total 48 57 76 543 398 1122
4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100%
Chi-square test=20.028a, p-value=.695
7.4.5 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels, a large number of secondary
school, graduate and post graduate degree holders stated that vote should be given to that
political party that resolve the issues faced by constituency. However, some of the primary,
higher secondary school level respondents agreed to vote that political party that can
eliminate the local issues. Moreover, a major part of the illiterate respondents said that they
support that political party that resolves the local problems (See in Table-140).
A small number of the respondents whose qualification is primary, secondary
school, higher secondary, graduate, post graduate and illiterate denied to support that
political party that resolve the local problems . On the other hand, majority of the illiterate
respondents are issue voters. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which
shows no association between educational qualification of the respondents and casting vote
to a political party on the basis to solve the local problems.
206
Table No. 140
We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency.
Educational
qualification
Extremely
disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
Primary 7 8 4 29 31 79
0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 2.6% 2.8% 7%
Middle 3 5 6 39 36 89
0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 3.5% 3.2% 7.9%
Matric 10 11 23 100 52 196
0.9% 1% 2% 8.9% 4.6% 17.5%
Intermediate 5 5 9 56 28 103
0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 5.0% 2.5% 9.2%
BA/BSc 6 9 8 89 69 181
0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 7.9% 6.1% 16.1%
MA/MSc 11 10 14 129 104 268
1% 0.9% 1.2% 11.5% 9.3% 23.9%
M.Phil 2 1 0 11 9 23
0.2% 0.1% .0% 1% 0.8% 2%
Illiterate 4 8 12 90 69 183
0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 8.0% 6.1% 16.3%
Total 48 57 76 543 398 1122
4.3% 5.1% 6.8% 48.4% 35.5% 100%
Chi-square test=37.720a, p-value=.104
7.4.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, majority of
northern, central and southern regions accepted that they vote to that political party that can
resolve the problems of the area. In contrary to that, a small number of central, southern and
northern geographical regions respondents said that they did not support that political party
who can resolve the problems of the constituency. The Chi-square test provides highly
significant p-value. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and casting vote to a
political party on the basis to solve the local problems (See Table No. 141).
Table No.141
We need to vote that political party which can resolve the problems and issues of our constituency.
Geographical
Region
Extremely
disagree
Disagree Don‟t know Agree Extremely
Agree
Total
North 101 56 49 146 28 380
9% 5% 4.4% 13% 2.5% 33.9%
Center 57 62 46 170 25 360
5.1% 5.5% 4.1% 15.2% 2.2% 32.1%
South 137 78 44 78 45 382
12.2% 7.0% 3.9% 7% 4% 34%
Total 295 196 139 394 98 1122
26.3% 17.5% 12.4% 35.1% 8.7% 100%
Chi-square test=81.608a, p-value=.000
207
7.5 ISSUE OWNERSHIP AND POLITICAL PARTIES
According to „Issue Ownership Theory‟ various parties focus on different local and national
issues. Lefevere, Tresch and Walgrave (2015) argued that the basic idea of this theory is
that voters associate certain issues with certain parties. In European countries, it is suppose
that, the issue immigration belonging to (radical) right political parties, social security is
considered a Socialist/Social-Democrat parties and environmental issue owned by „Green‟
Political Parties (Petrocik, 1989).
Although, when a party owns an issue, it is perceived by the voters that particular
political party having issue-specific policy expertise. Consequently, those voters expecting
that party „A‟ has the competence to handle that particular issue. For example, Democrats
are always reflects on health care issues and Republicans stress on defense and national
security issues in the United States of America (Petrocik, 1996). However, many voters are
supporting the political parties because of their capability to handle the local and national
issues. Political parties are trying to highlight their performance to resolve those issues in
public meetings regularly. Sometimes, they are highlighting the internal issues of party, to
seek the support of the voters. As a result, „Issue ownership Theory‟ assumes that political
parties will focus on getting the support of the voters.
Terrorism is one of the main issues of Pakistan and its neighboring countries. As a
result of 9/11 attacks on twin towers, US and its allies attack on Afghanistan to root out
terrorist organizations. Consequently, terrorism and militancy grow up in Pakistan generally
and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa particular. Terrorism affected the socio-political and economic
sectors of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Ahmad, 2010). More than 70,000 thousand murdered
(including children, women and men) and thousands people injured. In 2013 election
terrorism is the most important issue in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
However, poverty is also a major issue in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. According to the
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), the poverty level in 2011-13 was 49.1% which
208
increased to 49.2% in 2014-15 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. United Nations declare that person
a poor who could not earn two (2$) dollars per day is living below the poverty line. There
are different causes of poverty like unemployment, diseases, population, illiteracy, lack of
development and natural disasters etc. (flood, earthquake). In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it is
believed that voters are supporting those political parties that can eradicate poverty from the
society.
Energy crisis and illiteracy are the next important issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Energy is playing a significant role in the socioeconomic development of a society.
Therefore, it is essential to run the factories and industrial units and powering our vehicles
etc. Pakistan is facing the severe energy crisis. The main reason is the lack of serious efforts
for energy generation. Besides the industrial sector, energy crisis affects the life of a
common man. Load-shedding in summer is a big issue in Pakistan. In 2013 elections, some
political parties promised the voters that they will solve this issue if they come into power.
Likewise energy crisis, illiteracy is also a major issue in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
S. R. Mehboob (2011) study figures out that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province has the
lowest literacy in Pakistan. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the gross enrollment ratio is also lower
than other provinces. Unfortunately, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has an insufficient ratio of
primary, middle and high schools. The people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa now realize the
importance of education and they believe that education is the solution of all problems.
Therefore, they expecting from law makers to introduce free and quality education in the
country.
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the voters considered different political parties handle the
issues. Researcher asked from the respondents that, which political party can eliminate
poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. The response of the voters is correlated with
controlled variables i.e. gender, age, profession, education, monthly income and
geographical regions.
209
7.5.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned, (See Table-142), among the total the highest ratio of male
respondents trusted on Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf (PTI) to liberate society from poverty,
ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. While some of the male also trusted on JUI-F, JI,
PPP and ANP also to set free the society from poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy
crisis. However, a significant number of male respondents renounce that any political
parties can eliminate these issues from society.
Among the total respondents, a large number of female respondents also expected
PTI to eliminate the issues. However, some of the female respondents believed that JI, PPP,
ANP and PML-N liberate the society from poverty, terrorism, ignorance and energy crisis.
A large number of the male and female respondents showed their reliance on different
political parties that they can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis but
some of them disagreed with them. The Chi-square test provides insignificant p-value. The
P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between gender and expectation from different political parties to liberate society from
issues.
Table No.142
In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis?
Gender PPP ANP PML-
N
QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI-
S
PTI PMAP APML Indep. None
of
these
Don‟t
Know
Total
Male 61 54 49 17 67 78 0 2 170 2 2 7 116 1 626
5.4% 4.8% 4.4% 1.5% 6% 7% 0.0% 0.2% 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 10.3% 0.1% 55.8%
Female 47 43 43 15 62 36 1 5 140 1 0 15 87 1 496
4.2% 3.8% 3.8% 1.3% 5.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.4% 12.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 7.8% 0.1% 44.2%
Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 2 22 203 2 1122
9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 0.2% 2% 18.1% 0.2% 100%
Chi-square test= 19.013a, p-value=.123
7.5.2 Age Consideration
The opinion of the different age group regarding the different political parties a large
number of adults and youngsters expected PTI that can eliminate poverty, ignorance,
terrorism and energy crisis from the province. Majority of the youth still trust on PTI to
210
eliminate the issues ahead. However, some of the middle age expected PTI, PPP, JI, ANP,
JUI-F and PML-N to liberate society from the present issues. Some of the elders also
expected PTI, JI, PPP and ANP to eliminate the issues from the society. Conversely, some
of the adults, middle and old age respondents argued that there is no political party that can
rid the society from the present crisis. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
significant which shows an association between age and expectation from different political
parties to liberate society from issues.
Table No.143
Chi-Square test= 1.002E2a, p-value=.046
7.5.3 Professional Consideration
The opinion of the different professional groups‟ perception about different political parties
that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis from the province, some
of the businessmen expected PTI, PPP and ANP. Among the daily wagers, some expected
PTI, JUI-F and ANP. Among the respondents a large number of government servants
trusted PTI, JI, while among the non-government servants a large number believed that PTI
In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis?
Age PPP ANP PM
L-N
QW
P
JI JUI-
F
MQM JUI-
S
PTI PMAP None
of
these
Indep
.
Don‟
t
Kno
w
AP
ML
Total
18-
23
16 15 22 4 23 23 0 4 63 1 35 3 0 0 209
1.4
%
1.3% 2.0
%
.4% 2.0
%
2.0
%
.0% .4% 5.6% .1% 3.1% .3% .0% .0% 18.6
%
23-
27
14 13 18 7 11 22 0 0 72 1 40 3 0 0 201
1.2
%
1.2% 1.6
%
.6% 1.0
%
2.0
%
.0% .0% 6.4% .1% 3.6% .3% .0% .0% 17.9
%
27-
32
16 20 11 9 22 22 0 0 62 1 30 3 1 0 197
1.4
%
1.8% 1.0
%
.8% 2.0
%
2.0
%
.0% .0% 5.5% .1% 2.7% .3% .1% .0% 17.6
%
32-
37
15 15 13 4 14 17 0 1 34 0 26 3 0 1 143
1.3
%
1.3% 1.2
%
.4% 1.2
%
1.5
%
.0% .1% 3.0% .0% 2.3% .3% .0% .1% 12.7
%
37-
42
18 15 11 3 16 14 0 0 37 0 26 5 0 1 146
1.6
%
1.3% 1.0
%
.3% 1.4
%
1.2
%
.0% .0% 3.3% .0% 2.3% .4% .0% .1% 13.0
%
42-
50
16 7 8 1 17 7 1 1 27 0 26 4 1 0 116
1.4
%
.6% .7% .1% 1.5
%
.6% .1% .1% 2.4% .0% 2.3% .4% .1% .0% 10.3
%
Abo
ve 50
13 12 9 4 26 9 0 1 15 0 20 1 0 0 110
1.2
%
1.1% .8% .4% 2.3
%
.8% .0% .1% 1.3% .0% 1.8% .1% .0% .0% 9.8%
Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122
9.6
%
8.6% 8.2
%
2.9
%
11.5
%
10.2
%
.1% .6% 27.6
%
.3% 18.1% 2.0% .2% .2% 100%
211
and PML-N. Although majority of the farmers relies on PTI and JUI-F. A significant
number of unemployed respondents trusted on PTI, PPP, PML-N, JUI-F, ANP and JI that
can eliminate the issues from society. Lastly, a major portion of housewives expected PTI
and some consider JI, ANP, PPP, JUI, and PML-N to liberate the society from issues (See
Table No.144).
Conversely, among the total respondents who did not trust any political party to
liberate the society from these issues were a small number of businessmen, daily wagers and
farmers. A considerable number of government servants, non-government servants,
unemployed and housewives also not trusted on any political party to undermine the issues
at hand. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between profession and expectation from different political parties to liberate
society from issues.
Table No.144
In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis?
Profession PPP ANP
PML-
N QWP JI JUI-F MQM
JUI-
S PTI PMAP
None
of
these Indep.
Don‟t
Know APML Total
Business
14 13 8 5 7 9 0 1 26 1 21 4 0 1 110
1.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 9.8%
daily wagers
8 11 6 5 10 19 0 3 22 0 10 0 0 1 95
0.7% 1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 8.5%
Government
Servant
21 9 11 2 38 17 1 0 55 0 52 6 1 0 213
1.9% 0.8% 1% 0.2% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 4.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 19%
Non-government
servant
8 10 12 5 10 10 0 0 55 0 38 2 1 0 151
0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 13.5%
Farming
6 7 9 3 8 14 0 0 21 1 9 0 0 0 78
0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7%
Unemployed
21 13 19 2 13 17 0 1 52 0 37 2 0 0 177
1.9% 1.2% 1.7% 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 4.6% 0.0% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8%
Housewives
30 34 27 10 43 28 0 2 79 1 36 8 0 0 298
2.7% 3% 2.4% 0.9% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.2% 7% 0.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6%
Total
108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122
9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 18.1% 2% 0.20% 0.2% 100%
Chi-square test= 1.364E2a, p-value=.000
7.5.4 Income Consideration
In terms of income ( See in Table-145), the opinion of the different income groups
regarding the different political parties that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis from the province, a major portion of lower income class expected that PTI,
212
JUI-F, PML-N, PPP, ANP and JI. However, among the middle income class some expected
PTI, JI, ANP and JUI-F to eliminate the society from poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis. While a small number of upper middle expected PTI, PPP and PML-N can
eliminate the issues at hand. The upper income class expected PTI, PPP and JI to handle the
issues.
Among the respondents a major portion of lower and middle class did not trust on
any political party to liberate the society from poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy
crisis. It is also observed that a considerable number of lower income class trusted on the
religious political parties to get rid of the problems ahead. The Chi-square test provides
highly significant p-value. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant
which shows an association between monthly income and expectation from different
political parties to liberate society from issues.
Table No.145
In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis?
Income PPP AN
P
PM
L-N
QWP JI JU
I-F
MQ
M
JU
I-S
PT
I
P
M
AP
None
of
these
Inde
p.
Don‟t
know
AP
ML
Total
Below
10,000
26 21 27 7 20 51 0 4 60 0 23 6 0 0 245
2.3
%
1.9
%
2.4
%
.6% 1.8
%
4.5
%
.0% .4
%
5.3
%
.0
%
2.0% .5% .0% .0% 21.8
%
10000-
20000
13 19 6 6 17 13 0 0 45 0 41 3 1 1 165
1.2
%
1.7
%
.5% .5% 1.5
%
1.2
%
.0% .0
%
4.0
%
.0
%
3.7% .3% .1% .1% 14.7
%
20000-
30000
10 11 12 5 16 14 0 0 41 0 39 1 0 0 149
.9% 1.0
%
1.1
%
.4% 1.4
%
1.2
%
.0% .0
%
3.7
%
.0
%
3.5% .1% .0% .0% 13.3
%
30000-
40000
10 3 10 1 7 3 1 0 24 0 8 4 1 1 73
.9% .3% .9% .1% .6% .3
%
.1% .0
%
2.1
%
.0
%
.7% .4% .1% .1% 6.5%
40000-
50000
7 5 1 1 7 3 0 0 15 0 12 0 0 0 51
.6% .4% .1% .1% .6% .3
%
.0% .0
%
1.3
%
.0
%
1.1% .0% .0% .0% 4.5%
Above
50000
4 2 2 0 20 0 0 0 16 0 8 0 0 0 52
.4% .2% .2% .0% 1.8
%
.0
%
.0% .0
%
1.4
%
.0
%
.7% .0% .0% .0% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
38 36 34 12 42 30 0 3 10
9
3 72 8 0 0 387
3.4
%
3.2
%
3.0
%
1.1% 3.7
%
2.7
%
.0% .3
%
9.7
%
.3
%
6.4% .7% .0% .0% 34.5
%
Total 108 97 92 32 129 11
4
1 7 31
0
3 203 22 2 2 1122
9.6
%
8.6
%
8.2
%
2.9% 11.5
%
10.
2
%
.1% .6
%
27.
6
%
.3
%
18.1% 2.0
%
.2% .2% 100
%
Chi-square test=1.795E2a, p-value=.000
213
7.5.5 Educational Consideration
In terms of education (See in Table-146), the opinion of the respondents of different
educational level regarding the different political parties that can eliminate poverty,
ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis from the province, some of the primary level
respondents expected PTI, ANP and JI. However, a major portion of secondary school level
respondents stated that PTI, JUI-F and PML-N eradicate the issues in front. Some graduate
degree holders considered PTI, JI and PPP; although a large number of post graduate level
respondents trusted PTI, JI and PML-N to undermine poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis. On the other hand, a large number of illiterate respondents expected PTI, ANP
and PPP that liberate society from the problems. Contrary to that, among the total
respondents a minor portion of primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate, post
graduate and illiterate respondents argued that political parties are incapable to liberate the
society from these problems. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant
which shows an association between educational level and expectation from different
political parties to liberate society from issues.
Table No.146
In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, illiteracy, terrorism and energy crisis?
Education PPP ANP PML-
N
QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI-
S
PTI PMAP None
of
these
Indep. Don‟t
Know
APML Total
Primary 8 16 8 3 6 12 0 0 14 0 11 1 0 0 79
0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 1.% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7%
Middle 7 9 3 3 10 18 0 2 25 0 8 3 0 1 89
0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 7.9%
Matric 18 13 20 8 17 36 0 0 55 0 26 3 0 0 196
1.6% 1.2% 1.8% 0.7% 1.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 17.5%
Intermediate 10 9 12 3 12 7 0 1 29 0 17 3 0 0 103
0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2%
BA/BSc 20 9 11 8 26 13 0 1 53 3 33 2 1 1 181
1.8% 0.8% 1% 0.7% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 4.7% 0.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.1%
MA/MSc 20 16 23 1 35 9 1 0 85 0 72 5 1 0 268
1.8% 1.4% 2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 6.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 23.9%
M.Phil 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 10 0 9 0 0 0 23
0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2%
Illiterate 23 25 15 5 22 19 0 3 39 0 27 5 0 0 183
2% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 3.5% 0.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3%
Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122
9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 18.1% 2% 0.2% 0.2% 100%
Chi-square test= 1.715E2a, p-value=.000
214
7.5.6 Regional Consideration
As far as three geographical regions are concerned, the opinion of the respondents of
different districts regarding the different political parties that can eliminate poverty,
ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis from the province, a large number of the respondents
of central districts expected PTI, ANP and PPP. While a large number of the respondents of
northern geographical region trusted on PTI, PPP and PML-N to eradicate the issues ahead.
However, the respondents of southern region expected PTI, JI and JUI-F can eliminate
poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis. Lastly, a huge number of the respondents
of southern district Lakki Marwat expected to undermine the local issues of society. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
geographical region and expectation from different political parties to liberate society from
issues (See Table No.147).
Table No.147 In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and energy crisis?
Geographical Region
PPP ANP PML-N
QWP JI JUI-F MQM JUI-S
PTI PMAP No one
Indep. don‟t remember
APML Total
North 41 16 24 10 47 11 0 2 124 0 94 7 2 2 380
3.7% 1.4% 2.1% 0.9% 4.2% 1% 0.0% 0.2% 11.1% 0.0% 8.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 33.9%
Center 33 59 44 10 33 13 1 2 94 1 59 11 0 0 360
2.9% 5.3% 3.9% 0.9% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 8.4% 0.1% 5.3% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 32.1%
South 34 22 24 12 49 90 0 3 92 2 50 4 0 0 382
3% 2% 2.1% 1.1% 4.4% 8% 0.0% 0.3% 8.2% 0.2% 4.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 34%
Total 108 97 92 32 129 114 1 7 310 3 203 22 2 2 1122
9.6% 8.6% 8.2% 2.9% 11.5% 10.2% 0.1% 0.6% 27.6% 0.3% 18.1% 2% 0.2% 0.2% 100%
Chi-square test=1.903E2a, p-value=.000
Summary
The study figures out that like other socio-political and psychological determinants issues
are also important determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Like other
provinces of Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also faced several socio-economic and political
issues. To connect issues with voting behaviour „Issue Ownership Theory‟ and „The Riding
the Wave Theory‟ is operationalized. The researcher used a multi-variable scale to measure
the issue voting in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The first variable is the voters‟ identification of
215
local and national issues. All respondents recognized a list of local and national issues. The
main issues of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are poverty, militancy, energy crisis, unemployment
and illiteracy. The respondents recognized different issues which they believe most
important. In Karak scarcity of water is the most important issue. Therefore, the contesting
candidates highlight the water issue. While in district Charsadda and Mardan the main
issues identified were load-shedding and terrorism.
Secondly, a question asked that vote should be given to that political party that can
eradicate poverty, ignorance, load-shedding and terrorism. A significant number of
respondents agree to vote that political party that can eradicate the local and national issues.
However, a major portion of respondents said that vote should be poll to that political party
that can resolve the issues ahead. On the basis of these findings, we can conclude that there
are a large number of issue voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
216
CHAPTER – 8
RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR
8.1 INTRODUCTION
Apart from party identification, personality and issue voting, another important determining
factor of voting behaviour is religion in Pakistan. It is also believed that religion is an
important element in determining voting preferences in the Pakhtun society. Religion is
playing a key role in making socio-political attitudes of the people. Religious political
parties‟ political rhetoric successfully attracts a significant number of voters in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. This rhetoric includes implementation of Sharia System/Islamic system of
governance; Religious political parties as the defender of Islam; secular political parties as
agents of Jews and Christians (Yahood-o-Nasara kay Aala-i-Kaar) and voting for religious
political parties as the sacred duty of all the Muslims. Most of the religious political parties
prefer to focus on the religious issues during election campaign. Religious political parties‟
leadership tries to sort out the solution of local and national issues in religious lenses.
Therefore, religious parties have a strong hold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa has three most popular religious political parties Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan
(JIP), Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazal-ur-Rehman (JUI-F) and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Sami ul
Haq (JUI-S). These religious political parties claim that their main objective is the
implementation of „Sharia’ in Pakistan. During the election campaign the contesting
candidates of the religious political parties promising to the voters that whenever they come
into power the „Sharia Law‟ will be implementing in Pakistan. Harron K. Ullah (2014)
categorized these three religious political parties into two organizational groups. He argued
that JI has hierarchal structure and JUI has network organizational structure.
Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) was founded by Maulana Abu‟l Ala Maududi and his other
colleagues in August 1941 (Ullah, 2014; Hartung, 2013; Nasr, 1996; Haqqani, 2005:21).
Maududi said that „Islamic Revolution‟ abolish the forces of modern-day Jahiliya
217
(socialism, communism, secularism, liberal democracy) (Hartung, 2013:155). He laid down
the foundation of 'Islamism' a theory of the establishment of an Islamic state by „Islamizing‟
the society. Maududi argued that when the economy and politics Islamized then the final
milestone is Islamic revolution (Hartung, 2013:183).
Maulana Maududi was the writer of over one twenty (120) books and pamphlets. He
made over thousand (1000) speeches and press statements. In 1930, Maududi completed his
first monumental work „Al-Jihad-fil-Islam’. Al-Jihad-fil-Islam was an excellent treatise on
the war and peace. Maududi discourses on Islam (Khutabat), Masla-e-Jabr-o-Qadr (The
Problem of Free Will and Determination), Islam-Main-Ibadat-ka-Tasawwur, Sunnat-ki-
Aaeena-Hasiyat, Tanqeehat were immensely commended (Jackson, 2011). However, his
Tafhimat explains the concepts of Islam into the rational way. He also wrote on Purdah
(veil), Haqooq-e-Zojain that was highly appreciated among common people. Maududi‟s
book „Towards Understanding Islam‟ is a concise and logical introduction to Islam
(Ushama and Osmani, 2006). Moreover, his main contribution was commentary and
translation of the Holy Quran entitled „Tafhim-al-Quran‟ that consists of six volumes.
Tafhim al-Quran has the far-reaching impact on the contemporary Islamic thinking.
Maulana Maududi scholarship has profoundness of the learning of the Quran and Sunnah
(Hartung, 2013; Nasr, 1996). Esposito (1983), Grare (2001) and Hassan (1982) described
Maududi a prominent Islamic ideologue, whose thoughts and scholarly work influence a
large number of movements in the Islamic world.
After the foundation of Pakistan, Maududi came to Pakistan and organized Jamaat-i-
Islami. In 1948, Maududi rejected the Kashmir Jihad because it was a proxy war. He argued
that Jihad should declare by a state and it should be not carried out secretly. As a result of
this statement, Maududi was sent to jail. Maulana Maududi had differences on the
interpretation of Sharia with the conservative Ulema of the subcontinent (Ullah, 2014).
218
Maulana Maududi and his colleagues structured a strong organization framework of
Jamaat-i-Islami. Each and every member of the party has their own position and
responsibilities in the party. Therefore, JI is considered a hierarchal political party. Harron
K. Ullah (2014) in his work describes that JI recruited profoundly from universities and
Madrassas to develop a small cadre of intellectuals and religious scholars for leadership. He
classify the membership of party into three categories; Arkan (those people who qualified
for JI membership), Muttafiq (A person who is not a member of JI but agree with JI
policies) and Hamdard (sympathizers of Jamaat-i-Islami) (Ullah, 2014:81-82).
Humera Iqtidar (2014) in her work figures out that JI has a strong connection to the
lower class especially with tenants and farmers of rural areas. She said that JI also runs a
charity organization „Al-Khidmat Foundation‟ to give relief to the affected people in flood
and other natural disasters. It is believed that JI like other Islamist political parties still
promoting support through social services in society. Haroon K. Ullah also observed that
those JI supporters and members of different governmental and non-governmental
organization supporting to JI policies in their organizations. JI also have a number of
educational institutions (Private English Medium Schools and Religious Madaris) through
which it inculcates its ideology in the young generation. It has a student wing known as
Islami Jamiat-e-Talaba (IJT) that was established in 1947.
Since 2002, Jamaat-e-Islami became more pragmatic in electoral politics and it
made coalition with different political parties. In General Elections 2002, JI with other
religious parties formed a coalition Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). During election
campaign all other religious political parties were supporting each other in front of common
voters. In this way a positive image of the JI was established among the common people.
Lieven argued that JI focusing on socio-economic issues in their manifestos to attract the
middle and lower middle class voters (Lieven, 2011). Moreover, JI also made unusual
compromises with other secular political parties strategically, such as in 2001 local
219
government elections JI made an alliance with Pakistan Peoples Party in Peshawar and
Lahore.
The second popular religious political party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is Jamiat
Ulema-i-Islam (JUI). JUI originated from Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind (JUH) which was
established by a group of the religious scholars of Deobandi school of thought in 1919
(Zaman, 2002; Pirzada, 2000). The motto of JUH was to use non-violent strategy to
pressurize the British Empire to retain the Ottoman Caliphate. Later on, JUH joined the
Indian National Congress (INC) against the British Raj. On the question of Pakistan
movement, JUH split into two groups, one was supporting partition and the other was
against the partition of India (Ullah, 2014:77). The supporters of pro-partition faction of
JUH founded Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI) under the leadership of Shabir Ahmad Usmani.
Shabir Ahmad Usmani and other like-minded colleagues of JUI played a key role in
Pakistan Movement. Therefore, Usmani started work with Muslim League after the
independence of Pakistan. Shabir Ahmad Usmani became a member of the constituent
assembly and he played a significant role in the passage of „Objectives Resolution‟ in 1949.
Since the beginning, JUI had close ethnic, cultural and religious ties with the rural voters
(Ullah, 2014:90).
Maulana Abdul Haq and Mufti Mehmood were the founding fathers of JUI in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As a result of 1970s election seven MNAs and nine MPAs elected
from JUI. Mufti Mehmood became the Chief Minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 1980s
JUI divided into two factions on the question of joining General Zia ul Haq military
government. JUI-S was the supporter of Zia dictatorial regime led by Maulana Sami Ul
Haq, while the opponent of Zia regime led by Maulana Fazl Rehman known as JUI-F (BBC,
2002).
JUI leadership started realistic electoral politics, which is based on networking with
common voters on the lower level. Therefore, JUI established thousands of Madaris in
220
different parts of the country. Nawab (2007) work figures out that during 1980 to 2002 the
number of JUI-F and JUI-S affiliated Madrassas number increased from 1,840 to 7,000.
The students of those religious schools (Madrassas) recruited in local Mosques as Imams.
In this way, JUI networking started with electorates at ground level. The Imams of mosques
are portraying the policies and programs of JUI during „Khutbas’ to convince voters. JUI is
growing stronger in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, because the people have very strong affiliation
with religion.
According to proximity theory, a voter prefers those contesting candidates whose
availability is easy and accessible (Tomz and Houweling, 2008). Downs (1957) argues that
similarity of the voter and candidate demands about an issue raise the satisfaction level of
voter. The JUI networking model is the application of proximity theory in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
However, JUI several times joined hand with the secular political parties for their
own interest in elections. Haroon K. Ullah argues that JUI was instrumental in the
legislation of different Islamic laws during 1971 to 1977 (Ullah, 2014:93). During 70s, JUI
made a coalition government with a secular and ethnic political party ANP in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
In 2002 JUI and other religious political parties formed a coalition called Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The election symbol of MMA was „Book‟. Jamshid Khan (2014)
argued that during election campaign in public speeches the candidates of MMA called their
symbol „Quran’. The leadership of JUI was using different kind of tactics to dissuade the
voters from other political parties. For example, on 4th
May 2013, Maulana Fazlur Rehman
in his speech in Dera Ismail Khan said that “A person who could not make his own children
Muslim nor Pakistani, is dreaming of becoming prime minister of Pakistan and making the
country an Islamic welfare state,” he also said that “Imran Khan is working for Jewish
(Yahoodi) lobby,” therefore, voting for PTI is Haram. A fatwa is a common tool that is used
221
by religious political parties‟ leadership against other political parties during the election
campaign (Political „Fatwa‟: Voting for PTI is Haram, 5th
May, 2013). Ayub Jan (2010)
argues that Pakhtuns have a very close religious attachment. Fatwa is playing a vital role to
convince the voters in the election. The ratio of religious political parties‟ voters is higher in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa than other provinces of Pakistan. Table-1 portrays the percentage vote
of JUI, JI and JUP in three elections (2002, 2008 and 2013) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Table No. 148
Religious Political Parties Percentage Votes in 2002, 2008 and 2013 Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Elections Khyber Pakhtunkhwa % National Level %
General Elections 2002 73.2% 54.3%
General Elections 2008 61.4% 21.8%
General Elections 2013 25.57% 28.94%
Source: Haroon K. Ullah, (2014). Vying for Allah‟s Vote; Understanding Islamic Parties, Political
Violence and Extremism in Pakistan, Georgetown University Press: Washington DC, 124-
125
During election campaign religious political parties‟ leadership and contesting candidates
using the rhetoric that we want to implement the „Sharia‟ in Pakistan. During the survey the
researcher have asked from the respondents that why they voted to that political party in
2013 General Elections? The respondents‟ response is correlated with the controlled
variables (gender, age, education, profession, income and geographical regions). The results
of each variable tested with chi-square test.
8.1.1 Gender Consideration
A significant portion of Pakistan‟s population consists of women. According to the UNDP
report, women literacy rate in Pakistan is less than 42% (UNDP, 2010). The low literacy
rate presented the vulnerable situation of women in Pakistan. However, with the passage of
time gradual changes in the socio-politico-economic circumstances and awareness about
women education, women inflow into health, education, engineering and Information
Technology increased. Nonetheless, women active participation in politics also grows up
(WEIN, 2010). Likewise, other political parties, the ratio of female members are equally
222
increasing in religious political parties in Pakistan. It seems that women have more
inclination towards religion than men.
Table-149 indicates that majority of the male respondents voted to a political party
on the basis to change the system. As far as gender is concerned, among the total
respondents, a significant number of male and female respondents said that they voted to
that political party who want to implement Islamic system in Pakistan. However, some of
male and female respondents accepted that they voted to a party on the basis of ideological
attachment with that political party. On the other hand, a quantity of male and female
respondents supports that political party which is fighting for the political rights of
Pakhtuns. Although among the total respondents, major portion male and female
respondents voted to the party because that political party wants to bring change in the old
system. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between gender of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a
political party.
Table No. 149
Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections?
Gender Ideologic
al
attachme
nt
Good
Perform
ance
Islamic
system
Granted
Jobs to
our
family
Protecting
Pakhtuns
Political
Rights
Change
the
system
Don‟t
know
Total
Male 92 94 110 15 66 199 50 626
8.2% 8.4% 9.8% 1.3% 5.9% 17.7% 4.5% 55.8%
Female 63 103 89 15 35 136 55 496
5.6% 9.2% 7.9% 1.3% 3.1% 12.1% 4.9% 44.2%
Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122
13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100%
Chi-Square test= 14.790a, p-value=.022
8.1.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age groups, a small number of adults, youth, mid
and old age respondents voted to a party because they wanted to implement Islamic system
in Pakistan. Although, among the total respondents some of the youngsters, mid and old age
respondents accepted that they voted a political party because of the association with an
ideology. Regardless of that, among the total respondents of different age groups majority
223
of the adults, mid and aged respondents support a political party on the basis of change in
system. While a quantity of the different age groups support a political party on the basis of
good performance and a significant number of respondents voted a political party because it
is considered to fight for the political rights of Pakhtuns. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between age of the respondents
and the reasons why they voted for a political party (See Table No.150).
Table No.150
Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections?
Age Ideologic
al
attachme
nt
Good
Performanc
e
Islamic
system
Granted
Jobs to
our family
Protecting
Pakhtuns
Political
Rights
Change
the system
Don‟t
know
Total
18-23 22 30 28 4 32 63 30 209
2.0% 2.7% 2.5% 0.4% 2.9% 5.6% 2.7% 18.6%
23-27 27 37 32 2 18 65 20 201
2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 0.2% 1.6% 5.8% 1.8% 17.9%
27-32 32 31 36 6 14 64 14 197
2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 0.5% 1.2% 5.7% 1.2% 17.6%
32-37 17 26 25 5 17 42 11 143
1.5% 2.3% 2.2% 0.4% 1.5% 3.7% 1.0% 12.7%
37-42 22 28 25 7 8 45 11 146
2% 2.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.7% 4.0% 1.0% 13%
42-50 21 23 20 4 6 33 9 116
1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 2.9% 0.8% 10.3%
Above
50
14 22 33 2 6 23 10 110
1.2% 2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.5% 2.0% 0.9% 9.8%
Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122
13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100%
Chi-Square test= 54.121a, p-value=.027
8.1.3 Professional Consideration
Table-151 predicts professional consideration and the support of political parties in 2013
elections. Among the total respondents a small number of Businessmen, daily wagers, non-
government servants, farmers, unemployed and a considerable number of government
servants and housewives agreed to vote that party because those political parties want to
implement Islamic system in Pakistan.
In spite of that, a small number of different professional groups argued that they
voted to that political party because it is fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns. However, a
considerable number of Businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government
224
servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives agreed to vote that party because that party
wanted change in the system. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant
which shows an association between profession of the respondents and the reasons why they
voted for a political party.
Table No. 151
Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections?
Profession Ideologic
al
attachme
nt
Good
Perform
ance
Islamic
system
Granted
Jobs to
our family
Protecting
Pakhtuns
Political
Rights
Change
the
system
Don‟t
know
Total
Businessm
en
22 18 17 3 12 32 6 110
2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.1% 2.9% 0.5% 9.8%
daily
wager
10 13 15 1 20 30 6 95
0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.1% 1.8% 2.7% 0.5% 8.5%
Governme
nt Servant
26 28 45 8 11 63 32 213
2.3% 2.5% 4.0% 0.7% 1.0% 5.6% 2.9% 19.0%
Non-govt.
servant
33 22 23 0 14 49 10 151
2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.4% 0.9% 13.5%
Farming 7 19 14 3 8 22 5 78
0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 2.0% 0.4% 7.0%
Unemploy
ed
25 27 24 4 13 64 20 177
2.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.4% 1.2% 5.7% 1.8% 15.8%
House
wives
32 70 61 11 23 75 26 298
2.9% 6.2% 5.4% 1.0% 2.0% 6.7% 2.3% 26.6%
Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122
13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9.0% 29.9% 9.4% 100%
Chi-Square test= 78.615a, p-value=.000
8.1.4 Income Consideration
Table-152 demonstrates that majority of the low-income groups‟ respondents voted to those
political parties that want the implementation of Islamic system in Pakistan. Among the
total respondents of different income, some of the lower, lower middle, middle and upper
income class stated that they voted to that political party because the party wants the
implementation of Islamic system in Pakistan. While a large number of lower income class
stated that they voted to a political party because it wanted change in system. However, a
small number of lower, middle and upper income class responded that they voted to that
political party because that party is fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns. The P-value<0.05 of
225
the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between monthly
income of the respondents and the reasons why they voted for a political party.
Table No.152 Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections?
Monthl
y
income
Ideologi
cal
attachme
nt
Good
Performan
ce
Islamic
system
Granted
Jobs to
our
family
Protecting
Pakhtuns
Political
Rights
Change
the
system
Don‟t
know
Total
Below
10,000
36 51 44 10 30 60 14 245
3.2% 4.5% 3.9% 0.9% 2.7% 5.3% 1.2% 21.8%
10000-
20000
25 29 25 4 14 56 12 165
2.2% 2.6% 2.2% 0.4% 1.2% 5% 1.1% 14.7%
20000-
30000
18 26 32 1 13 42 17 149
1.6% 2.3% 2.9% 0.1% 1.2% 3.7% 1.5% 13.3%
30000-
40000
10 10 15 2 4 25 7 73
0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 2.2% 0.6% 6.5%
40000-
50000
7 6 8 3 6 17 4 51
0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 1.5% 0.4% 4.5%
Above
50000
16 1 13 1 1 8 12 52
1.4% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
43 74 62 9 33 127 39 387
3.8% 6.6% 5.5% 0.8% 2.9% 11.3% 3.5% 34.5%
Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122
13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100%
Chi-Square test= 67.130a, p-value=.001
8.1.5 Educational Consideration
In Table-153 among the total respondents of different educational levels, small number of
primary, secondary and higher secondary school level respondents agrees to vote that
political party that can employ the Islamic System in Pakistan. However, some of the
graduate, post graduate and uneducated respondents said that they supported the party
because it wants to implement Islamic System. Whereas, a minor portion of primary and
higher secondary school level believed that the party they voted can change the present
system of Pakistan.
However, a significant number of graduate and post graduate level respondents also
support to that political party that can change the present system of Pakistan. Nonetheless, a
minimal portion of primary, secondary school, higher secondary, graduate and post graduate
degree holder respondents voted to a party because it is fighting for the political rights of
Pakhtuns. However, a large number of graduate and post graduate education level
226
respondents supported a political party because it supported its ideology. We have also
found a large number of illiterate respondents who illustrated that they voted a party on the
basis of its performance. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant
which shows an association between educational level of the respondents and the reasons
why they voted for a political party.
Table No. 153
Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections?
Educatio
n
Ideologi
cal
attachm
ent
Good
Perform
ance
Islamic
system
Granted
Jobs to
our family
Protecting
Pakhtuns
Political
Rights
Change
the system
Don‟t
know
Total
Primary 10 8 20 7 13 16 5 79
0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 0.4% 7.0%
Middle 12 18 14 1 10 28 6 89
1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.9% 2.5% 0.5% 7.9%
Matric 27 38 47 7 17 40 20 196
2.4% 3.4% 4.2% 0.6% 1.5% 3.6% 1.8% 17.5%
Intermedi
ate
19 20 16 2 12 21 13 103
1.7% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 9.2%
BA/BSc 23 25 24 6 17 63 23 181
2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 0.5% 1.5% 5.6% 2.0% 16.1%
MA/MSc 48 32 43 1 19 96 29 268
4.3% 2.9% 3.8% 0.1% 1.7% 8.6% 2.6% 23.9%
M.Phil 2 2 4 1 0 12 2 23
0.2% 0.2% .4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.0%
Illiterate 14 54 31 5 13 59 7 183
1.2% 4.8% 2.8% 0.4% 1.2% 5.3% 0.6% 16.3%
Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122
13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9.0% 29.9% 9.4% 100.0%
Chi-Square test= 1.068E2a, p-value=.000
8.1.6 Regional Consideration
Table-154 indicates that among the respondents of three different geographical regions of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a major portion of the respondents of southern regions agree to vote
that political party that is struggling for the implementation of Islamic System in Pakistan.
Therefore, since 2002 the southern region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a strong hold of the
JUI-F. However, some of the respondents of central and northern geographical regions also
have the support of those political parties that wants Islamic System in Pakistan. The data
predicts a large number of the respondents of central and northern regions who said that
they voted because the political party wants to bring change in the system. While, some of
227
the respondents of three geographical regions also alleged that they voted that political party
that supporting their ideology.
Apart from that, some of the respondents of central, southern and northern regions
supported Pakhtun nationalist political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between region of the respondents and the
reasons why they voted for a political party.
Table No. 154
Why you voted to that political party in 2013 general elections?
Geograp
hical
Region
Ideologica
l
attachmen
t
Good
Performa
nce
Islamic
system
Grante
d Jobs
to our
family
Protecting
Pakhtuns
Political
Rights
Change
the
system
Don‟t
know
Total
North 61 63 49 3 18 134 52 380
5.4% 5.6% 4.4% 0.3% 1.6% 11.9% 4.6% 33.9%
Center 44 73 40 11 45 118 29 360
3.9% 6.5% 3.6% 1.0% 4% 10.5% 2.6% 32.1%
South 50 61 110 16 38 83 24 382
4.5% 5.4% 9.8% 1.4% 3.4% 7.4% 2.1% 34.0%
Total 155 197 199 30 101 335 105 1122
13.8% 17.6% 17.7% 2.7% 9% 29.9% 9.4% 100%
Chi-Square test=91.521a, p-value=.000
8.2 RESPONDENTS PERCEPTION ABOUT RELIGIOUS POLITICAL
PARTIES
Alongside the three major political parties (PPP, PML and PTI), the religious political
parties constitute another component in the politics of Pakistan. Religious parties
experienced their luck in the polls but consistently failed to draw majority seats in
parliament. The total votes cast to religious political parties before the 2002 election, in
1990 election 1.76%, 1993 election 6.75%, and in 1997 election 1.83% (Warriach, 2002). In
Table-148 we can see that since General Elections 2002 the vote bank of the religious
political parties growing up generally in Pakistan and particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
In General Elections 2002, News Link (2002) reported that the main reason of the support
of religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was anti-Americanism. Hamid H.
Kizilbash (1988) in his work identified that Pakistanis give three reasons for negative
228
feelings about the United States of America. The first reason is U.S. dual policies towards
Pakistan. The second reason deals with US support to Israel and use of force against
developing nations including Muslim world and the third reason of Anti-Americanism
consists of US involvement in the policies of the Pakistani government. Kizilbash explains
that many people are anxious about the Pak-US relationship and they opposed to being
hostile. On the other hand, US support of Israel, India, and military dictators disengage a lot
of the goodwill in Pakistani society. Lastly, the most important reasons of anti-Americanism
are religious, cultural and ethnic differences (Kizilbash, 1988). The religious political
parties are exploiting anti-Americanism in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in elections.
Athar (2002) illustrated that politics is moving around in a vicious circle of foreign
debt, poverty, and wealth controlled by a few families. Therefore, these factors may have
segregated a section of voters from the major political parties of Pakistan. Now they were
looking towards religious political parties. Idress (2002) supported Athar opinion and he
also described the rising support of the religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as
a reaction to the feudalism, and corruption of the non-religious political parties.
However, Saddiqui (2002) opines that the nationalist political parties (ANP) have
also been defeated by the religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He pointed out
that religious parties‟ victory was not just a response to Anti-Americanism but was a
reaction to the socio-economic deprivation in the society. We can say that there is no single
factor responsible to the rising vote bank of religious political parties, but all these factors
are involved in the support of religious political parties. A question is asked from the
respondents, “Whether there should be only religious political parties in Pakistan”. The
response of this question is correlated with controlled variables (gender, age, profession,
qualification, income, geographical regions) and applied Chi-Square test.
229
8.2.1 Gender Consideration
Table-155 provides the correlation of gender of the respondents and perception about the
religious political parties. Among the total respondents a great number of male and female
respondents said that there should be only religious political parties in Pakistan. Contrary to
that, some of the male and female respondents disagree that there should be only religious
political parties (JUI-F, JUI-S, JI, JUP, PAT) in Pakistan. Moreover, some of the male and
female respondents did not mention their opinion about religious political parties. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
gender of the respondents and support to religious political parties.
Table No. 155
There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
Gender Extremel
y
Disagree
disagree Don‟t know Agree to some
extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
Male 126 134 90 210 66 626
11.2% 11.9% 8.0% 18.7% 5.9% 55.8%
Female 94 82 115 152 53 496
8.4% 7.3% 10.2% 13.5% 4.7% 44.2%
Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122
19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100%
Chi-Square test= 16.088a, p-value=.003
8.2.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories in Table-156 indicates, a large
number of youngsters stated that we are supporting religious political parties in Pakistan.
However, a significant number of middle and old age respondents were also supporting the
religious political parties in Pakistan. Contrary to that, among the total respondents a
significant number of adults, middle and old age respondents refused the presence of only
religious political parties in Pakistan. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
insignificant which shows no association between age of the respondents and support to
religious political parties.
230
Table No.156
There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
Age Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
18-23 36 41 33 76 23 209
3.2% 3.7% 2.9% 6.8% 2.0% 18.6%
23-27 38 41 43 61 18 201
3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 5.4% 1.6% 17.9%
27-32 46 34 37 61 19 197
4.1% 3.0% 3.3% 5.4% 1.7% 17.6%
32-37 27 27 31 40 18 143
2.4% 2.4% 2.8% 3.6% 1.6% 12.7%
37-42 27 33 27 45 14 146
2.4% 2.9% 2.4% 4.0% 1.2% 13.0%
42-50 26 21 23 34 12 116
2.3% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0% 1.1% 10.3%
Above 50 20 19 11 45 15 110
1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 4.0% 1.3% 9.8%
Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122
19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0%
Chi-Square test= 19.031a, p-value=.750
8.2.3 Professional Consideration
The assessment of Table-157 provides the correlation of the respondents‟ professional
affiliation with the perception about religious political parties. A major portion of the
government servants, jobless and housewives perceived that there should only religious
political parties. However, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, non-government
servants, farmers express that there should be only religious political parties (JUI-F, JUI-S,
JI, JUP, PAT) in Pakistan.
On the other hand, significant number of government servants, non-government
servants, housewives and daily wagers redundant the existence of only religious political
parties in Pakistan. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between profession of the respondents and support to religious
political parties.
231
Table No. 157
There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
Profession Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large
extent
Total
Business 27 22 21 27 13 110
2.4% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% 1.2% 9.8%
daily wage 8 19 13 48 7 95
0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 4.3% 0.6% 8.5%
Government
Servant
42 43 36 58 34 213
3.7% 3.8% 3.2% 5.2% 3.0% 19.0%
Non-
government
servant
52 36 17 34 12 151
4.6% 3.2% 1.5% 3.0% 1.1% 13.5%
Farming 8 15 15 36 4 78
0.7% 1.3% 1.3% 3.2% 0.4% 7.0%
Unemployed 39 34 31 56 17 177
3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 5.0% 1.5% 15.8%
Housewives 44 47 72 103 32 298
3.9% 4.2% 6.4% 9.2% 2.9% 26.6%
Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122
19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0%
Chi-Square test=80.180a, p-value=.000
8.2.4 Income Consideration
Among the total respondents of different income showed in Table-158, the highest number
of lower income class supported the strong hold of religious political parties in Pakistan.
Contrary to that, minimal number of upper income class support the religious political
parties at all. On the other hand, some of the lower, middle and upper income class
respondents denied that there should be only religious political parties in Pakistan. The data
shows that majority of the lower income class supporting the religious political parties
because of their close attachment with religion. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between monthly income of the respondents
and support to religious political parties.
Table No. 158
There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
Monthly
income
Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
Below 10,000 39 43 40 98 25 245
3.5% 3.8% 3.6% 8.7% 2.2% 21.8%
10000-20000 38 37 28 42 20 165
3.4% 3.3% 2.5% 3.7% 1.8% 14.7%
20000-30000 27 24 27 52 19 149
2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 4.6% 1.7% 13.3%
232
30000-40000 17 12 17 16 11 73
1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 6.5%
40000-50000 13 15 6 13 4 51
1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.2% 0.4% 4.5%
Above 50000 19 15 3 6 9 52
1.7% 1.3% 0.3% .5% 0.8% 4.6%
Don‟t know 67 70 84 135 31 387
6.0% 6.2% 7.5% 12.0% 2.8% 34.5%
Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122
19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0%
Chi-Square test= 56.055a, p-value=.000
8.2.5 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels showed in Table-159, the
paramount number of illiterate respondents opined that there should be religious political
parties in Pakistan. However, some of the primary, secondary, higher secondary, graduate
and post graduate level respondents said that they support only religious political parties
(JUI-F, JUI-S, JI, JUP, PAT) in Pakistan.
Contrary to that, a large number of post graduate level respondents refused the
existence of only religious political parties. Moreover, some of the primary, secondary,
higher secondary and graduate level respondents also denied the presence of only religious
political parties in Pakistan. We have found that majority of the illiterate respondents were
supporting religious cult in the shape of religious political parties, while highly educated
respondents refused the presence of religious political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between educational
qualification of the respondents and support to religious political parties.
Table No. 159
There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
Educational
qualification
Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large
extent
Total
Primary 14 14 12 27 12 79
1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 2.4% 1.1% 7.0%
Middle 15 9 14 45 6 89
1.3% 0.8% 1.2% 4.0% 0.5% 7.9%
Matric 34 43 40 63 16 196
3.0% 3.8% 3.6% 5.6% 1.4% 17.5%
Intermediate 26 26 13 26 12 103
2.3% 2.3% 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 9.2%
BA/BSc 32 39 30 55 25 181
233
2.9% 3.5% 2.7% 4.9% 2.2% 16.1%
MA/MSc 82 59 40 53 34 268
7.3% 5.3% 3.6% 4.7% 3.0% 23.9%
M.Phil 6 3 2 11 1 23
0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 2.0%
Illiterate 11 23 54 82 13 183
1.0% 2.0% 4.8% 7.3% 1.2% 16.3%
Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122
19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0%
Chi-Square test=1.134E2a, p-value=.000
8.2.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three geographical regions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa showed in
Table-160, the highest number of the respondents of southern regions supports the existence
of only religious political parties. Even though, some of the respondents of central and
northern regions are also supported merely religious political parties (JUI-F, JUI-S, JI, JUP,
PAT) in Pakistan.
Apart from that, a large number of the respondents of northern region rejected the
religious political parties only. It is observed from the three general elections results of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that the vote bank of religious political parties in southern region is
greater than northern and central geographical regions. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square
test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the
respondents and support to religious political parties.
Table No.160
There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
Geograp
hical
Region
Extremely
Disagree
Disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some extent
Agree to a large
extent
Total
North 120 90 52 73 45 380
10.7% 8.0% 4.6% 6.5% 4.0% 33.9%
Center 47 55 102 124 32 360
4.2% 4.9% 9.1% 11.1% 2.9% 32.1%
South 53 71 51 165 42 382
4.7% 6.3% 4.5% 14.7% 3.7% 34.0%
Total 220 216 205 362 119 1122
19.6% 19.3% 18.3% 32.3% 10.6% 100.0%
Chi-Square test=1.147E2a, p-value=.000
234
8.3 RESPONDENTS PERCEPTIONS TO VOTE FOR RELIGIOUS POLITICAL
PARTIES
In Pakistan, the role of religious political parties has always been significant. These
religious political parties are representing the ultra-conservative segment of society. In
General Elections 2002 for the first time, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) a group of six
(6) religious political parties won fifty-four (54) seats in national assembly and majority
seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assembly (Khan, 2014). In spite of being not capable to win
national assembly polls and provincial assemblies‟ seats, religious parties have been
acquiring a remarkable vote bank in each electoral constituency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Moreover, since 2002 elections, JUI-F and JI permanently winning some of the national and
provincial seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the vote bank also growing up in each
constituency. Likewise, in Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Charsadda and Lower Dir are
the permanent constituencies of JUI-F and JI. The results of 2002, 2008 and 2013 elections
show that the vote bank of religious political parties is growing up in different
constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Those respondents who are supporting the religious political parties openly accepted
that they voted to that particular political party in General Elections 2013. The response of
the voters is correlated with gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions.
The correlation of the different variables is given in the tables below.
8.3.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents (See in Table-161), majority of
the male and female said that vote is merely given to religious political parties. Contrary to
that, among the total respondents, a significant number of male and female respondents are
opposing to vote only religious political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
235
highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and vote
to religious political parties.
Table No.161
Vote should be given to the religious political parties only?
Gender Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to some
extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
Male 120 145 56 240 65 626
10.7% 12.9% 5.0% 21.4% 5.8% 55.8%
Female 66 112 92 171 55 496
5.9% 10% 8.2% 15.2% 4.9% 44.2%
Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122
16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100%
Chi-Square test= 26.381a, p-value=.000
8.3.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories, the maximum number of
youngsters tended towards religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. However, a
significant number of middle and old age respondents also agree that vote should be given
to religious political parties. On the other hand, among the total respondents a large number
of youngsters denied to vote religious political parties. Moreover, a good number of middle
and old age respondents show their disagreement to vote religious political parties. The P-
value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age
of the respondents and vote to religious political parties (See Table-162).
236
Table No. 162
Vote should be given to the religious political parties only?
Age Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t know Agree to some
extent
Agree to a
large
extent
Total
18-23 33 45 25 80 26 209
2.9% 4.0% 2.2% 7.1% 2.3% 18.6%
23-27 41 49 31 63 17 201
3.7% 4.4% 2.8% 5.6% 1.5% 17.9%
27-32 37 49 29 69 13 197
3.3% 4.4% 2.6% 6.1% 1.2% 17.6%
32-37 27 30 17 56 13 143
2.4% 2.7% 1.5% 5.0% 1.2% 12.7%
37-42 14 33 23 55 21 146
1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 4.9% 1.9% 13.0%
42-50 20 30 16 38 12 116
1.8% 2.7% 1.4% 3.4% 1.1% 10.3%
Above 50 14 21 7 50 18 110
1.2% 1.9% .6% 4.5% 1.6% 9.8%
Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122
16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100%
Chi-Square test= 31.530a, p-value=.139
8.3.3 Professional Consideration
Majority of the housewives and unemployed respondents stated that they are eager to vote
religious political parties. We have found that a majority of the housewives have tendency
towards religious political parties in election. Sarah Ladbury and Seema Khan argued that
religious political parties are more attractive for the women in Muslim majority countries
(Ladbury and Khan, 2008).
Whereas, a significant number of businessmen, daily wagers, farmers, government
and non-government employees are also eager to support religious political parties in
election. Conversely, a major segment of non-government employees, government
employees and unemployed respondents denied voting religious political parties in election.
The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between profession of the respondents and vote to religious political parties (See Table
No.163).
237
Table No. 163
Vote should be given to the religious political parties only?
Profession Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large
extent
Total
Business 23 30 15 32 10 110
2.0% 2.7% 1.3% 2.9% 0.9% 9.8%
daily wager 11 14 12 48 10 95
1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 4.3% 0.9% 8.5%
Government Servant 33 52 28 71 29 213
2.9% 4.6% 2.5% 6.3% 2.6% 19.0%
Non-government
servant
45 46 14 37 9 151
4.0% 4.1% 1.2% 3.3% 0.8% 13.5%
Farming 6 20 10 38 4 78
.5% 1.8% .9% 3.4% 0.4% 7.0%
Unemployed 42 44 18 51 22 177
3.7% 3.9% 1.6% 4.5% 2.0% 15.8%
Housewives 26 51 51 134 36 298
2.3% 4.5% 4.5% 11.9% 3.2% 26.6%
Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122
16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100.0%
Chi-Square test= 91.647a, p-value=.000
8.3.4 Income Consideration
Table-164 shows that among the total respondents of different income groups, a large
number of lower income group said that they support the religious political parties in
election. Khurshid Ahmad (2006) argued that religion is more attractive tool for the lower
income class in a society. Although some of the lower middle, middle and upper income
class respondents keenly interested to vote religious political parties in coming election. In
defiance of that, among the total respondents, a considerable number of lower, lower
middle, middle and upper income class denied to support religious political parties in
election. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which shows an association
between monthly income of the respondents and vote to religious political parties.
Table No. 164
Vote should be given to the religious political parties only?
Monthly
income
Extreme
ly
Disagre
e
disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to a
large
extent
Total
Below
10,000
39 51 29 101 25 245
3.5% 4.5% 2.6% 9.0% 2.2% 21.8%
10000-
20000
28 45 16 59 17 165
2.5% 4.0% 1.4% 5.3% 1.5% 14.7%
20000- 27 40 21 44 17 149
238
30000 2.4% 3.6% 1.9% 3.9% 1.5% 13.3%
30000-
40000
14 15 10 26 8 73
1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 2.3% 0.7% 6.5%
40000-
50000
7 21 4 15 4 51
0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 4.5%
Above
50000
15 11 2 15 9 52
1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
56 74 66 151 40 387
5.0% 6.6% 5.9% 13.5% 3.6% 34.5%
Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122
16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100.0%
Chi-Square test= 38.871a, p-value=.028
8.3.5 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See in Table-21), the major
portion of uneducated respondents shows their keenness to vote religious political parties.
However, a significant number of primary, secondary and higher secondary, graduate and
post graduate stated that they support religious political parties. Haroon K. Ullah (2014)
assumed that illiterate individuals are supporting the religious political parties.
On the other hand, the major portion of post graduate level respondents disagreed to
vote religious political parties. However, some of primary, secondary, higher secondary
level respondents denied to vote religious political parties in election. The data shows that
the religious political parties support increases in the highly educated respondents. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
education of the respondents and vote to religious political parties.
Table No.165
Vote should be given to the religious political parties only?
Educational
qualification
Extremely
Disagree
disagre
e
Don‟t
know
Agree to
some
extent
Agree to
a large
extent
Total
Primary 9 21 10 26 13 79
0.8% 1.9% 0.9% 2.3% 1.2% 7%
Middle 7 20 9 45 8 89
0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 4.0% 0.7% 7.9%
Matric 22 43 36 76 19 196
2.0% 3.8% 3.2% 6.8% 1.7% 17.5%
Intermediate 27 19 11 36 10 103
2.4% 1.7% 1.0% 3.2% .9% 9.2%
BA/BSc 36 44 20 62 19 181
3.2% 3.9% 1.8% 5.5% 1.7% 16.1%
MA/MSc 71 85 28 58 26 268
6.3% 7.6% 2.5% 5.2% 2.3% 23.9%
239
M.Phil 6 5 0 11 1 23
0.5% 0.4% .0% 1.0% 0.1% 2.0%
Illiterate 8 20 34 97 24 183
0.7% 1.8% 3.0% 8.6% 2.1% 16.3%
Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122
16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100%
Chi-Square test= 1.271E2a, p-value=.000
8.3.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in
Table-166, a large number of the respondents of southern regions said that vote is merely
given to religious political parties. However, some of the respondents of central and
northern regions keenly interested to vote religious political parties. Contrary to that,
majority of the respondents of northern regions disagree to vote religious political parties.
However, some of the respondents of central and southern regions denied voting to religious
political parties. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows
an association between geographical region of the respondents and vote to religious political
parties.
Table No. 166 Vote should be given to the religious political parties only?
Geographi
cal Region
Extremely
Disagree
disagree Don‟t
know
Agree to
some extent
Agree to a
large extent
Total
North 99 121 41 86 33 380
8.8% 10.8% 3.7% 7.7% 2.9% 33.9%
Center 52 67 62 137 42 360
4.6% 6.0% 5.5% 12.2% 3.7% 32.1%
South 35 69 45 188 45 382
3.1% 6.1% 4.0% 16.8% 4.0% 34.0%
Total 186 257 148 411 120 1122
16.6% 22.9% 13.2% 36.6% 10.7% 100.0%
Chi-Square test= 1.002E2a, p-value=.000
8.4 THE RELATIONSHIP OF RELIGION AND VOTING BEHAVIOUR
Rose and Unwin, (1969), Converse (1974), Rose (1974), Lijphart (1979), Powell (1982) and
Mann (1995) pointed out that religion also playing a significant role in determining political
attitudes of a person. Manza and Brooks (1997) argued that religion has an important impact
on how the voter looks at specific social and economic issues.
240
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa religion is playing significant role in shaping voting
behaviour. Majority of the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are Pakhtuns. Rauf (2011)
argues that Pakhtuns are very strongly associated with religion (Islam). His study figures
out that this is the reason that why the ratio of religious political parties vote bank is
growing in Pakhtuns majority areas than other communities of Pakistan (Rauf, 2011).
However, Haroon K. Ullah (2014) presented three assumptions on the subject of the support
of religious political parties in Pakistan. The first assumption is that religious political
parties‟ top agenda is the implementation of ‘Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. The voters of
religious parties also want the implementation of ‘Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. Therefore, they
support the religious political parties. The second assumption based on socio-economic
status of the voter. Haroon K. Ullah argued that poverty and illiteracy generate support for
religious political parties in Pakistan. He also argued that the voter political decision is
based on rationality; therefore, it is assumed that religious political parties maximize the
chances of the voters‟ benefits. Therefore those voters who need a socio-economic support
they voted to religious political parties. Arzheimer and Carter (2009) argued that socio-
psychological factor is also an important determinant of voting behaviour. The
psychological theory of voting behaviour support that not only economic gains but
psychological factor is also a very important determinant of voting behaviour (Ullah, 2014:
111-112).
Summary
Since 9/11 militancy and Islamic radicalization is budding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Mehboob, 2011). The flow of Islamic radicalization accelerates the importance of religious
political parties. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the contesting candidates of religious political
parties focus on the anti-Americanism and implementation of Islam System of government.
As a result of election campaign, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) won majority seats in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is observed that since 2002 elections the vote bank of religious
241
political parties rising promptly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The study identified that religion
is also playing a key role in determining voting behaviour of the voters in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The religious political parties vote is measured by a multi-variables scale.
Among the respondents, a significant number of respondents accepted that they voted for a
political party because it can implement Islamic System in Pakistan. However, a large
number of respondents said that there should be religious political parties in Pakistan.
Lastly, a major portion of respondents alleged that vote should be given to religious political
parties only. On the basis of these facts and figures, like other determinants of voting
behaviour religion is also a key determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The researcher also sorts out the tendency of a large number of illiterate and lower income
class respondents towards religious political parties in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. These findings
will also provide new dimensions for upcoming research.
242
CHAPTER – 9
ROLE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS IN SHAPING
VOTING BEHAVIOUR
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Pakhtuns have a strong social and religious foundation. Therefore, strong contours of
religion and social structure exist in Pakhtun society. It is believed that religion and social
networks (family, friends and relatives) both have impacts on the voters‟ political behaviour
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In general elections 2002, religious political parties got majority
votes. On the other hand, social networks equally influence the voters‟ preferences. Shah
(2013) study on 2008 elections figure out the importance of social networks in district
Charsadda of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Therefore, we can say that social networks
and religion are playing important role in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
In spite all other social norms in Pakhtun society, Mashar Aw Kashar is also an
important ingredient of the social structure. Both terms belonged to Pashtu language
Mashar means elder and Kashar means youngster. In Pakhtun society, Kasharan (plural of
Kashar means youngsters) give respect and honour to their Masharan (elders). There are
two kinds of Masharan, one is family Mashar and the other one influential Mashar of the
area. Family is an important element of the social structure. Davies (1965) describes two
types of family, one is nuclear family and other is extended family. The nuclear family
consists of parents and their children, while the extended family is larger than nuclear
family and it is a combination of grandparents, uncles, aunts, nieces and nephews. In
Pakhtun social structure, there is also an intra-families relationship. The intra-families
relationship is known as family relatives (Khpalwan). The relatives of a family or an
individual have the family relationship with each other. Relatives also have a very important
243
place in the Pakhtun society. During the funeral, marriage ceremonies and other socio-
economic activities, the family relatives participate and share the joys and sorrows with
each other. The relatives are two types; one is blood relatives and other is the relatives of
the relative. Similarly, friendship of one individual with the other one extended the social
network of that individual. It is not necessary that a friend should be a family member. But
in some cases, the friendship of two individuals transform into blood relations. All these
features are important ingredients of social networks in Pakhtun society.
In the classical writing of political socialization, family is considered a significant
element to determine the youngsters‟ political attitude and political behaviour (Davies,
1965; Langton, 1969; Dawson & Prewitt, 1969). Salem, Ibrahim & Brady (2003) argued
that parents, teachers, friends and media develop the political knowledge of an individual as
well as the values of political socialization. Jaros (1973) and Valentino & Sears (1998)
argued that parents transmit political awareness, knowledge and values to their offspring.
Jennings et al. (2001) and Hyman (1959) studies figured out that family has an important
impact on determining the political attitudes of children.
Whereas, Plutzer (2002) and Rosenstone & Hansen (2003) argued that besides
family there are other socializing agents like school, peer groups and voluntary associations.
Quintelier et al. (2007) study figures out the direct role of parents on children political
attitudes. He further explored that it is an intergenerational transmission from parents to
their offspring. It is observed in Pakhtun families that children are motivated towards the
political party that belongs to their parents. In fact in Pakhtun society often father is the
head of the family and the rest of the family economically and socially depended on him.
Since the beginning the parents always discuss the positive aspects of their own political
party in home. But in case if he has no political knowledge then maybe their children
support different political parties, and even his father follows his children. It is also
observed that a single family may have different political parties‟ supporters.
244
On the other hand, some Masharan also has politico-economic influence in the
locality. Such kind of Mashar may be younger than other voters. But that Mashar has the
influence on the political choice of the voters of the area. Such a Mashar sometimes use
economic or social influence to get political support in the area. Sapiro (2004) argued that
political socialization depends on different contexts. Salem et al. (2003) and Ramadan et al.
(2014) study emphasized on the importance of social networks in the formulation of the
political attachment of an individual.
In 1977, Gen. Zia-ul-Haq Martial Law regime banned political parties, political
activities and started a campaign to depoliticize the Pakistani society. Gen. Zia held non-
party local government elections in 1979 and 1983. As a result of party-less local bodies
elections, contesting candidates contacted their social networks i.e., family relatives, tribe,
friends rather than political party. After this successful experiment, Gen. Zia conducted
party-less election in 1985. Party-less elections at national level strengthened social
networks weakened political parties. Resultnatly, a major portion of parliament consisted on
landed elites and feudal class. Rasul B. Raees argued that “ties to clan, tribe, or Biradari
(literally brotherhood) and feudal social basis, in particular, largely determined the outcome
of elections” (Rais, 1985).
Andrew Wilder and Mughees Ahmad figured out that Biradari as a „primordial‟
group identity that including family, caste, and kinship which is playing a significant role in
determining voting behaviour and political preferences of an individual (Wilder, 1999:177;
Ahmed, 2009). Ayesha Jalal (1995:105) argues that “a country where parties had never
managed to strike roots, the Zia regime‟s systematic campaign to discredit politicians and
politics gave renewed significance to the old personalized networks of Biradari
(brotherhood) or clan-based ties”. After the end of Zia‟s dictatorial regime, again the
democratic practices started in Pakistan. In the second phase of democratization process
from 1990 to 1996 three general elections contested but during that time the political
245
government did not complete its five years tenure. In October 1997, Nawaz Sharif
government was dismissed and Gen. Pervez Musharraf implemented third Martial Law in
Pakistan (Mehmood, 2015). Like previous martial administrators, Gen. Musharraf also
adopted the similar strategy to dismantle the democratization process in Pakistan. He
introduced local government system and amended the constitution. After the end of Gen.
Musharraf regime, the democratization process started in Pakistan. As a result of General
Elections 2008, for the first time in the history of Pakistan PPP with the support of other
coalition parties completed its five years tenure.
Likewise, other parts of Pakistan the electorates in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa elected
three different political parties in the three different elections. Likewise, other political and
economic determinants, social networks also playing a significant role in shaping voting
behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This chapter examines the influence of social networks
(family, relatives and friends) in shaping individual voting behaviour. While in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa less scholarly attention has been devoted to understanding the link between
social networks and voting behaviour. To test the role of social networks in shaping voting
behaviour a four variable scale is made. Each variable is correlated with controlled variables
(gender, age, education, profession, marital status and geographical zones). The assessment
of the data depicts the role of social networks in shaping voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
9.1.1 Gender Consideration
In Table-167, as far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, nominal number
of men respondents and women respondents said that they want to vote that candidate who
belongs to their tribe or kinship. However, several men and women respondents disagree to
vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between gender of the respondents and
supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or kinship.
246
Table No. 167
Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship?
Gender Not at all No Don‟t
know
To some extent To a large
extent
Total
Male 193 194 40 166 33 626
17.2% 17.3% 3.6% 14.8% 2.9% 55.8%
Female 127 150 65 131 23 496
11.3% 13.4% 5.8% 11.7% 2% 44.2%
Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122
28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100%
Chi-Square=16.259a, p-value=.003
9.1.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories (See in Table-168), a very small
number of adults followed by youngsters, middle age respondents and elders supported the
candidate on the basis of relationship with tribe and kinship. Contrary to that, among the
total respondents some of the adults followed by a small number of youngster and middle
age respondents denied voting a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. However, a small
number of the senior citizens denied voting a candidate on the basis of tribe and kinship.
The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association
between age of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of
tribe or kinship.
Table No. 168
Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship?
Age Not at
all
No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
18-23 66 60 16 56 11 209
5.9% 5.3% 1.4% 5.0% 1.0% 18.6%
23-27 54 62 16 58 11 201
4.8% 5.5% 1.4% 5.2% 1.0% 17.9%
27-32 60 63 17 49 8 197
5.3% 5.6% 1.5% 4.4% 0.7% 17.6%
32-37 46 35 19 36 7 143
4.1% 3.1% 1.7% 3.2% 0.6% 12.7%
37-42 41 45 10 42 8 146
3.7% 4.0% 0.9% 3.7% 0.7% 13.0%
42-50 27 35 21 26 7 116
2.4% 3.1% 1.9% 2.3% .6% 10.3%
Above 50 26 44 6 30 4 110
2.3% 3.9% 0.5% 2.7% 0.4% 9.8%
247
Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122
28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100%
Chi-Square=27.897a, p-value=.264
9.1.3 Professional Consideration
In Table-169, as far as profession is concerned, the smallest number of respondents of
business community, followed by a minute portion of daily wagers, government servants,
non-government servants, farmers and unemployed respondents agreed to vote a candidate
on the basis of tribe or kinship. However, some of the housewives agreed to vote a
candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship.
On the other hand, various businessmen, government servants, non-government
servants, unemployed and housewives disagreed to vote on the basis of tribe or kinship.
Whereas, a minimal number of farmers and daily wagers disagreed to vote on the basis of
tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows
an association between profession of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the
election on the basis of tribe or kinship.
Table No. 169
Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship?
Profession Not at all No Don‟t
Know
To
some
extent
To a
large
extent
Total
Business 38 34 9 20 9 110
3.4% 3.0% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 9.8%
Daily wage 16 17 6 49 7 95
1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 4.4% 0.6% 8.5%
Government
Servant
73 75 18 39 8 213
6.5% 6.7% 1.6% 3.5% .7% 19%
Non-government
servant
51 63 13 19 5 151
4.5% 5.6% 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 13.5%
Farming 13 16 3 43 3 78
1.2% 1.4% 0.3% 3.8% 0.3% 7%
Unemployed 56 56 16 41 8 177
5.0% 5.0% 1.4% 3.7% 0.7% 15.8%
Housewives 73 83 40 86 16 298
6.5% 7.4% 3.6% 7.7% 1.4% 26.6%
Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122
28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100%
Chi-Square= 1.138E2a, p-value=.000
248
9.1.4 Income Consideration
Among the total respondents of different income groups (See in Table-170), some of the
respondents of lower class and lower middle class respondents said that vote should be
given to a candidate on the basis of tribe and kinship. But a meager number of middle,
middle upper and upper class respondents accepted that vote should be given on the basis of
tribal affiliation and kinship.
Conversely, several lower class, middle class, lower middle class and upper middle
class respondents denied to vote a candidate on the basis of tribal affiliation and kinship.
The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between monthly income of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on
the basis of tribe or kinship.
Table No. 170
Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship?
Monthly Income Not at
all
No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a
large
extent
Total
Below 10,000 64 59 25 85 12 245
5.7% 5.3% 2.2% 7.6% 1.1% 21.8%
10000-20000 43 59 7 47 9 165
3.8% 5.3% 0.6% 4.2% 0.8% 14.7%
20000-30000 39 59 16 28 7 149
3.5% 5.3% 1.4% 2.5% 0.6% 13.3%
30000-40000 26 14 7 24 2 73
2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 6.5%
40000-50000 17 18 4 11 1 51
1.5% 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 4.5%
Above 50000 22 22 4 3 1 52
2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6%
Don‟t know 109 113 42 99 24 387
9.7% 10.1% 3.7% 8.8% 2.1% 34.5%
Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122
28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100%
Chi-Square= 51.291a, p-value=.001
9.1.5 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels showed in Table-171, a tiny
segment of secondary and higher secondary school level respondents accepted that vote
249
should be given to a candidate on the basis of tribal affiliation. However, a minute portion
of graduate and highly educated respondents said that they vote to a candidate on the basis
of tribe or kinship. Whereas, a large segment of illiterate respondents supporting those
candidates who belonged to their tribe or kinship in 2013 election.
Some of the respondents of secondary and higher secondary school certificate
holders denied voting a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. However, a huge part of
graduates and post-graduate respondents refused to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or
kinship relationship in 2013 election. Moreover, some of the illiterate respondents also
renounce to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-
Square test is highly significant which shows an association between educational
qualification of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of
tribe or kinship.
Table No. 171
Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship?
Education Not at all No Don‟t
know To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Primary 27 14 9 26 3 79
2.4% 1.2% .8% 2.3% .3% 7.0%
Middle 22 16 8 36 7 89
2.0% 1.4% 0.7% 3.2% .6% 7.9%
Matric 41 60 18 67 10 196
3.7% 5.3% 1.6% 6.0% 0.9% 17.5%
Intermediate 27 39 12 16 9 103
2.4% 3.5% 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 9.2%
BA/BSc 52 63 15 44 7 181
4.6% 5.6% 1.3% 3.9% 0.6% 16.1%
MA/MSc 115 103 14 30 6 268
10.2% 9.2% 1.2% 2.7% 0.5% 23.9%
M.Phil 10 3 1 9 0 23
.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% .0% 2.0%
Illiterate 26 46 28 69 14 183
2.3% 4.1% 2.5% 6.1% 1.2% 16.3%
Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122
28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100%
Chi-Square= 1.385E2a, p-value=.000
250
9.1.6 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (See in
Table-172), some of the respondents of central and southern region accepted to vote a
candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship in 2013 General Elections. However, a minimum
number of the respondents of northern region admit that they voted to those candidates who
belong to their tribe or kinship in 2013 election.
A large number of the respondents of northern region, central region and southern
region did not agree to vote a candidate on the basis of tribe or kinship. The P-value<0.05 of
the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between geographical
region of the respondents and supporting a candidate in the election on the basis of tribe or
kinship.
Table No. 172
Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kinship?
Geographical
Region Not at all No
Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
North 131 155 22 51 21 380
11.7% 13.8% 2.0% 4.5% 1.9% 33.9%
Center 88 103 47 109 13 360
7.8% 9.2% 4.2% 9.7% 1.2% 32.1%
South 101 86 36 137 22 382
9.0% 7.7% 3.2% 12.2% 2.0% 34.0%
Total 320 344 105 297 56 1122
28.5% 30.7% 9.4% 26.5% 5% 100%
Chi-Square=80.504a, p-value=.000
9.2 INFLUENCE OF MASHAR (ELDER) OF THE FAMILY ON VOTE CHOICE
James C. Davies (1965) argued that family has a central role in shaping the individual‟s
political personality. Therefore a teenager tends to adopt their parents' outlook towards the
political system. A father is ideal for his children. James C. Davies also stated that an
individual getting experience from familial and other social circumstances in which s/he
improves from the level of dependency to independence (Davies, 1965). Some of the
youngsters are politically alienate with their parental political affiliation and some disagree
251
with parents. The main reason for this alienation is strict parental control, which sometimes
works to conforming youngster and while others more deviant from their parents.
Maccoby et al., (1959) argued that in some highly politicized families, politics is
available as an object of protest. In this part of the chapter, it is tried to identify those voters
who are politically dependent on their family elders. For this purpose, a question asked from
the respondents that, “Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family
(Mashar) elder supports”. It is correlated with gender, age, profession, education, income
and geographical regions to identify the effects of all these variables.
9.2.1 Gender Consideration
In Table-173 as far as gender is concerned, among the total respondents, a number of male
respondents and female respondents said that a vote should be given to that candidate who
has our family elder‟s support. However, a great number of male and female respondents
disagree to vote that candidate who has the support of their family elder (Mashar).
Moreover, a minimal number of the men and women show their uncertain response. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
gender of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar)
support.
Table No. 173
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder
supports.
Gender Not at all No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a
large
extent
Total
Male 200 196 59 118 53 626
17.8% 17.5% 5.3% 10.5% 4.7% 55.8%
Female 121 129 76 138 32 496
10.8% 11.5% 6.8% 12.3% 2.9% 44.2%
Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29.0% 12.0% 22.8% 7.6% 100.0%
Chi-Square=27.452a, p-value=.000
9.2.2 Age Consideration
Among the total respondents of different age categories (See in Table-174), a small number
of adults, youngsters and middle age respondents agree to vote that contesting candidate
252
who has their family elder‟s (Mashar) support. Whereas, a meager number of respondents
of senior citizens were also supporting the idea that vote should be given to that candidate
who has support of the family‟s elder (Mashar).
Contrary to that, among the total respondents, a large number of adults, teenagers
and young people disagree to vote a candidate who has the support of their family‟s elder
(Mashar). On the other hand, a small number of senior and middle age respondents differ
to vote that candidate who has the support of their family‟s elder (Mashar). The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between age
of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.
Table No. 174
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports.
Age Not at
all
No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
18-23 62 61 22 42 22 209
5.5% 5.4% 2% 3.7% 2% 18.6%
23-27 58 69 25 37 12 201
5.2% 6.1% 2.2% 3.3% 1.1% 17.9%
27-32 66 47 30 46 8 197
5.9% 4.2% 2.7% 4.1% .7% 17.6%
32-37 43 40 12 37 11 143
3.8% 3.6% 1.1% 3.3% 1% 12.7%
37-42 42 42 14 32 16 146
3.7% 3.7% 1.2% 2.9% 1.4% 13.0%
42-50 25 30 17 36 8 116
2.2% 2.7% 1.5% 3.2% 0.7% 10.3%
Above
50
25 36 15 26 8 110
2.2% 3.2% 1.3% 2.3% 0.7% 9.8%
Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100%
Chi-Square= 30.341a, p-value=.174
9.2.3 Professional Consideration
As far as profession is concerned, among the total respondents a minimal number of the
respondents of business community admit to vote that candidate who has their family
elder‟s support. Some of the daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants,
farmers and unemployed agree to vote a candidate without the consultation of their family
253
elder. Among the total respondents many housewives accepted to vote that candidate who
has their family elder (Mashar) support.
On the other hand, some of the businessmen, daily wagers, government servants,
non-government servants, farmers, unemployed and housewives denied voting that
candidate who has our family elder support. In Table-9 Chi-square test provides highly
significant p-value. The p-value<0.05 shows that there is an association between the
profession of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar)
support.
Table No. 175
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom our family (Mashar) elder supports.
Profession Not at all No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Business
43 33 13 18 3 110
3.8% 2.9% 1.2% 1.6% 0.3% 9.8%
Daily-wagers
15 19 17 28 16 95
1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.5% 1.4% 8.5%
Government Servant
73 70 23 38 9 213
6.5% 6.2% 2% 3.4% 0.8% 19.0%
Non-government
servant
61 55 9 22 4 151
5.4% 4.9% 0.8% 2.0% 0.4% 13.5%
Farming
11 20 6 25 16 78
1.0% 1.8% .5% 2.2% 1.4% 7.0%
Unemployed
52 59 26 27 13 177
4.6% 5.3% 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 15.8%
Housewives
66 69 41 98 24 298
5.9% 6.1% 3.7% 8.7% 2.1% 26.6%
Total
321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100%
Chi-Square= 1.225E2a, p-value=.000
9.2.4 Income Consideration
In Table-176, among the total respondents of different income levels, some of the
respondents of lower income class and lower middle class said that vote should be given to
those candidates who have their family elder‟s support. However, meager number of middle
class, middle upper and upper class respondents confessed to vote that candidate who has
their family elder‟s support. Whereas, a large of respondents who did not mention their
254
monthly income responded that vote should be given to that candidate who is supported by
your family elder‟s (Mashar).
Conversely, some of the lower income class followed by lower middle class and
middle class respondents oppose to vote a candidate who has their family elder‟s support. A
small number of middle and upper middle class also denied to vote a candidate who has
their family elder‟s support. A large number of the respondents who did not mention their
monthly income denied vote that candidate who has their family‟s elder (Mashar) support.
The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association
between income of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family elder
(Mashar) support.
Table No.176
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports.
Monthly Income Not at
all
No Don‟t
Know
To
some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Below 10,000 62 55 29 63 36 245
5.5% 4.9% 2.6% 5.6% 3.2% 21.8%
10000-20000 43 57 15 40 10 165
3.8% 5.1% 1.3% 3.6% 0.9% 14.7%
20000-30000 48 53 16 27 5 149
4.3% 4.7% 1.4% 2.4% 0.4% 13.3%
30000-40000 26 16 9 17 5 73
2.3% 1.4% 0.8% 1.5% 0.4% 6.5%
40000-50000 16 22 4 8 1 51
1.4% 2% .4% 0.7% 0.1% 4.5%
Above 50000 26 17 1 8 0 52
2.3% 1.5% 0.1% 0.7% .0% 4.6%
Don‟t know 100 105 61 93 28 387
8.9% 9.4% 5.4% 8.3% 2.5% 34.5%
Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100%
Chi-Square= 68.569a, p-value=.000
9.2.5 Marital Status Consideration
As far as marital status is concerned, in Table-177, among the total respondents, some of the
married respondents agree to vote a candidate who has their family elder‟s support. While, a
255
minor number of unmarried and widows said that a vote should be given to that candidate
who has your family‟s elder (Mashar) support.
A huge number of married, unmarried and widows did not agree to vote a candidate
who has our family‟s elder support. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly
significant which shows an association between marital status of the respondents and vote
for a candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.
Table No. 177
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports.
Marital
Status
Not at
all
No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
Married 188 202 81 170 68 709
16.8% 18.0% 7.2% 15.2% 6.1% 63.2%
Unmarri
ed
125 118 51 79 17 390
11.1% 10.5% 4.5% 7.0% 1.5% 34.8%
Widow 8 5 3 7 0 23
0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 2%
Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100%
Chi-Square= 17.286a, p-value=.027
9.2.6 Educational Consideration
In terms of education showed in Table-178, among the total respondents, a small number of
secondary school level and higher secondary school level respondents agree to vote that
candidate who has their family elder‟s support. Whereas, some of the graduates and
postgraduate level respondents accept to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s
support. While, among the respondents, relatively a large number of illiterate are supporting
their family elder‟s choice.
Some of the respondents of secondary school and higher secondary school level
oppose to vote that candidate who has their family elder‟s support. Nevertheless, a large
number of graduate and post-graduate respondents refuse to vote that candidate who has
their family‟s elder support. However, a minimal number of illiterate respondents denied
that vote should be given to that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
256
educational qualification of the respondents and vote for a candidate who has our family
elder (Mashar) support.
Table No. 178
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports.
Educational
qualification Not at all No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent Total
Primary 23 15 11 22 8 79
2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 2% 0.7% 7%
Middle 20 21 6 28 14 89
1.8% 1.9% 0.5% 2.5% 1.2% 7.9%
Matric 41 55 39 48 13 196
3.7% 4.9% 3.5% 4.3% 1.2% 17.5%
Intermediate 35 32 11 20 5 103
3.1% 2.9% 1.0% 1.8% 0.4% 9.2%
BA/BSc 58 56 19 41 7 181
5.2% 5.0% 1.7% 3.7% 0.6% 16.1%
MA/MSc 111 101 15 31 10 268
9.9% 9.0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.9% 23.9%
M.Phil 11 5 1 3 3 23
1.0% .4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 2.0%
Illiterate 22 40 33 63 25 183
2.0% 3.6% 2.9% 5.6% 2.2% 16.3%
Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100%
Chi-Square= 1.457E2a, p-value=.000
9.2.7 Regional Consideration
Among the total respondents of different regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (See in Table-
179), some of the respondents of central region and northern region agreed that vote should
be give to that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. Whereas, a minimal number
of the respondents of northern districts accepted that vote should be given to that candidate
who is supported by their family‟s elder.
A large number of respondents of northern region followed by central region agree
to vote that candidate who has their family‟s elder support. However, some of the
respondents of southern region denied voting that candidate who has our family elder
(Mashar) support. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
257
shows an association between geographical region of the respondents and vote for a
candidate who has our family elder (Mashar) support.
Table No. 179
Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your family (Mashar) elder supports.
Geographical
Regions
Not at all No Don‟t
Know
To some
extent
To a large
extent
Total
North 131 151 30 57 11 380
11.7% 13.5% 2.7% 5.1% 1.0% 33.9%
Center 78 85 60 115 22 360
7.0% 7.6% 5.3% 10.2% 2.0% 32.1%
South 112 89 45 84 52 382
10.0% 7.9% 4.0% 7.5% 4.6% 34%
Total 321 325 135 256 85 1122
28.6% 29% 12% 22.8% 7.6% 100%
Chi-Square= 99.395a, p-value=.000
9.3 INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS ON VOTE CHOICE
In Punjab, Hamza Alavi figured out that when a voter is economically dependent on a
landlord (Chaudhary) then the voter should support the landlord‟s preferred political party
in the election. Therefore, in different constituencies landlords (Chaudhary and Khans) have
a vote bank of peasants (Ahmad, 1977:11). Shandana Khan Mohmand argued that modern
technology changed the social structure of every society. She stated that infrastructure and
urbanization led political mobilization in rural Punjab. Modernization amplified the
autonomy of voters but still the voters‟ relationship with local landlords as patron-client.
She opines that social structure and caste system are the major determinants of voting
behaviour for villages in Punjab (Mohmand, 2011).
Mathew Nelson (2011) opined that landed aristocracy use traditional village level
informal institutions and kinship during elections in Punjab. Consequently, Chaudharys
(Landlords in Punjab) of PML-N is continuously winning every election in Punjab.
However, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the situation is entirely different. Like the Chaudharys
of Punjab, the Khans of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also have the ownership of a large area of
land. But in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Khans are not influencing the autonomy of voters. That
258
is why in each election different political party came into power in three elections (i.e.,
2002, 2008 and 2013) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Unlike the influence of landed aristocracy
in Punjab, the social networks in the shape of family, relatives and friends influencing the
individual vote choice.
Mark S. Granovetter (1973) argued that network is easy and inexpensive way of
sharing information among people. Therefore, common people are sharing political
information with each other and that shape the political attitudes of an individual. Family,
friends and relatives are the most important elements of social networks. During the survey,
it is asked from the respondents, “Who influence your vote‟s decision? The reaction of the
respondents is correlated with controlled variables (gender, age, profession, education,
income, marital status and geographical regions) and analyzed the data by Chi-square test.
9.3.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned in Table-180, among the total respondents, some of the male
and female respondents said that their vote‟s decision is influenced by the head of the
family, while a small number of male and female respondents argued that their friends
influence their vote decision. However, insignificant number of male and female
respondents asserted that their relatives influence their vote decision. The P-value<0.05 of
the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between gender of the
respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.
Table No. 180
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Gender Head of
the
family
Friends Relatives Party Candidate No one Don‟t
Know
Total
Male 133 34 29 107 67 209 47 626
11.9% 3% 2.6% 9.5% 6% 18.6% 4.2% 55.8%
Female 159 20 33 60 58 123 43 496
14.2% 1.8% 2.9% 5.3% 5.2% 11% 3.8% 44.2%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100%
Chi-Square= 27.845a, p-value=.000
259
9.3.2 Age Consideration
In Table-181, among the total respondents of different age categories, some of the adults,
teenagers, middle and elder respondents admitted that the head of the family influence their
decision to vote, while various adults, youngsters, middle age and senior respondents
acknowledge that their vote choice swayed by friends.
Moreover, among the total respondents, a meager portion of adults, youth, middle
age and old age respondents accepted that their vote choice is influenced by relatives. The
P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows no association between
age of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.
Table No. 181
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Age Head of
the family
Friend
s
Relati
ves
Party Candid
ate
No one Don‟t
Know
Total
18-23 62 11 12 30 21 54 19 209
5.5% 1.0% 1.1% 2.7% 1.9% 4.8% 1.7% 18.6%
23-27 51 10 14 28 26 55 17 201
4.5% 0.9% 1.2% 2.5% 2.3% 4.9% 1.5% 17.9%
27-32 50 7 7 24 18 77 14 197
4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 1.6% 6.9% 1.2% 17.6%
32-37 31 9 6 29 19 43 6 143
2.8% 0.8% 0.5% 2.6% 1.7% 3.8% 0.5% 12.7%
37-42 44 3 7 20 15 46 11 146
3.9% 0.3% 0.6% 1.8% 1.3% 4.1% 1.0% 13.0%
42-50 32 9 8 11 13 32 11 116
2.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2% 2.9% 1.0% 10.3%
Above 50 22 5 8 25 13 25 12 110
2.0% .4% .7% 2.2% 1.2% 2.2% 1.1% 9.8%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100%
Chi-Square= 41.558a, p-value=.241
9.3.3 Professional Consideration
As far as profession is concerned in Table-182, among the total respondents, a small
number of business community, daily wagers, government servants, non-government
servants, farmers, unemployed and some of the housewives stated that their vote choice is
influenced by the head of the family. Nonetheless, a negligible number of businessmen,
daily wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers, unemployed and
260
housewives said that their vote‟s decision is influenced by friends. On the other hand, a
small number of businessmen, daily wagers, government servants, non-government
servants, farmers, jobless and housewives accepted that vote‟s decision influenced by
relatives. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between profession of the respondents and influence of social networks in vote
decision.
Table No. 182
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Profession Head of
the family
Friends Relative
s
Party Candidate No one Don‟t
Know
Total
Business 24 11 5 25 11 26 8 110
2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 2.2% 1.0% 2.3% 0.7% 9.8%
Daily wager 37 3 7 11 13 15 9 95
3.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 8.5%
Government
Servant
41 13 5 34 22 84 14 213
3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 3% 2% 7.5% 1.2% 19.0%
Non-
government
servant
18 7 8 27 16 67 8 151
1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 2.4% 1.4% 6% 0.7% 13.5%
Farming 31 2 5 10 10 16 4 78
2.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 7%
Unemployed 40 4 12 20 21 66 14 177
3.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 5.9% 1.2% 15.8%
Housewives 101 14 20 40 32 58 33 298
9% 1.2% 1.8% 3.6% 2.9% 5.2% 2.9% 26.6%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100%
Chi-Square=1.102E2a, p-value=.000
9.3.4 Income Consideration
Among the total respondents of different income groups showed in Table-183, a large
number of respondents of lower class and those respondents who did not mention their
monthly income responded that head of the family influence their vote‟s choice. While a
small number of lower middle class, middle class and upper class accepted that the head of
the family influence their vote‟s choice.
Whereas, an insignificant number of lower, middle and upper classes respondents
admitted that the friends influence their vote choice. However, relatively large number of
261
the respondents who did not mention their income accepted the influence of friends on their
vote‟s decision. Nevertheless, a meager number of poor, middle and upper class opined that
their vote‟s decision is influenced by relatives. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between income of the respondents and
influence of social networks in vote decision.
Table No. 183
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Monthly
Income
Head of
the family Friend
s
Relati
ves
Party Candidate No one Don‟t
Know Total
Below
10,000
80 7 17 32 27 63 19 245
7.1% 0.6% 1.5% 2.9% 2.4% 5.6% 1.7% 21.8%
10000-
20000
35 8 9 30 22 46 15 165
3.1% 0.7% 0.8% 2.7% 2% 4.1% 1.3% 14.7%
20000-
30000
26 11 6 26 13 60 7 149
2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 2.3% 1.2% 5.3% 0.6% 13.3%
30000-
40000
11 6 2 12 11 27 4 73
1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 2.4% 0.4% 6.5%
40000-
50000
6 2 3 13 4 19 4 51
0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.5%
Above
50000
8 1 1 10 3 27 2 52
0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 2.4% 0.2% 4.6%
Don‟t
know
126 19 24 44 45 90 39 387
11.2% 1.7% 2.1% 3.9% 4.0% 8.0% 3.5% 34.5%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100%
Chi-Square= 80.874a, p-value=.000
9.3.5 Marital Status Consideration
As far as marital status is concerned, among the total respondents, a huge number of
married respondents responded that head of the family influence their vote‟s choice, while
some of the unmarried and a meager segment of widows said that head of the family
influence their vote‟s decision (See in Table No. 184).
A small number of married and unmarried respondents accepted the influence of
friends in their vote‟s decision. Moreover, among the total respondents, an insignificant
number of married, unmarried and widows responded that relatives have an influence on
262
their vote‟s decision. The P-value>0.05 of the Chi-Square test is insignificant which shows
no association between marital status of the respondents and influence of social networks in
vote decision.
Table No. 184
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Marital Status Head of
the
family
Friend
s
Relativ
es
Party Candida
te
No
one
Don‟t
know
Total
Married 194 32 34 109 72 208 60 709
17.3% 2.9% 3% 9.7% 6.4% 18.5
%
5.3% 63.2%
Unmarried 92 22 26 55 50 118 27 390
8.2% 2.0% 2.3% 4.9% 4.5% 10.5
%
2.4% 34.8%
Widow 6 0 2 3 3 6 3 23
0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 2.0%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26.0% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6
%
8% 100%
Chi-Square= 8.850a, p-value=.716
9.3.6 Educational Consideration
Among the total respondents of different educational levels (See in Table-185), minimum
number of the secondary and higher secondary school level respondents confessed that head
of the family influence their vote‟s decision. Whereas, some of the graduate and post-
graduate level respondents argued that head of the family influence their vote‟s decision.
While a large number of illiterate respondents said that head of the family influence our
vote‟s decision.
A meager number of secondary level, higher secondary and graduates, post-graduate
level and illiterate respondents accepted that friends influence their vote‟s decision. On the
other hand, an insignificant number of secondary school level, higher secondary school
level, graduate and post-graduate level accepted the influence of relatives on their vote‟s
decision. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
263
association between educational qualification of the respondents and influence of social
networks in vote decision.
Table No. 185
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Educational
qualification
Head of
the
family
Friends Relati
ves
Party Candida
te
No one Don‟t
know
Total
Primary 21 4 6 6 11 17 14 79
1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 7%
Middle 32 7 8 16 12 11 3 89
2.9% 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 7.9%
Matric 54 12 13 30 24 55 8 196
4.8% 1.1% 1.2% 2.7% 2.1% 4.9% 0.7% 17.5%
Intermediate 23 7 3 15 10 40 5 103
2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 3.6% 0.4% 9.2%
BA/BSc 38 10 8 33 17 55 20 181
3.4% .9% .7% 2.9% 1.5% 4.9% 1.8% 16.1%
MA/MSc 41 5 12 49 24 121 16 268
3.7% 0.4% 1.1% 4.4% 2.1% 10.8% 1.4% 23.9%
M.Phil 5 2 0 2 4 9 1 23
0.4% 0.2% .0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 2.0%
Illiterate 78 7 12 16 23 24 23 183
7.0% 0.6% 1.1% 1.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 16.3%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26.0% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100%
Chi-Square= 1.483E2a, p-value=.000
9.3.7 Regional Consideration
Among the respondents of three different geographical regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
some of the respondents of central, northern and southern regions accepted that their vote
decision was influenced by head of the family. Nevertheless, a meager number of the
respondents of northern, central and southern regions responded that friends influence their
vote‟s preferences (See in Table No.186).
A minor portion of the respondents of northern, central and southern districts said
that relatives influence their vote‟s decision. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is
highly significant which shows an association between geographical region of the
respondents and influence of social networks in vote decision.
264
Table No. 186
Who influence your vote‟s decision?
Geograp
hical
Region
Head of the
family Friends Relative
s
Party Candidat
e
No one Don‟t
know Total
North 58 20 20 62 34 162 24 380
5.2% 1.8% 1.8% 5.5% 3.0% 14.4% 2.1% 33.9%
Center 97 17 22 50 52 83 39 360
8.6% 1.5% 2.0% 4.5% 4.6% 7.4% 3.5% 32.1%
South 137 17 20 55 39 87 27 382
12.2% 1.5% 1.8% 4.9% 3.5% 7.8% 2.4% 34%
Total 292 54 62 167 125 332 90 1122
26% 4.8% 5.5% 14.9% 11.1% 29.6% 8% 100%
Chi-Square= 76.518a, p-value=.000
9.4 RATIONALE OF CANDIDATE SUPPORT IN GENERAL ELECTIONS 2013
In General Elections 2013 voters support contesting candidates on the basis of different
reasons. Many voters were inspired from the candidate religious attachment, while others
believed that candidate belong to their political party therefore, they are supporting that
candidate. Some of the voters argued that we are favoring that candidate who has popular
support in the constituency. However, honest and uncorrupt candidates also have the support
from common voters. Lastly, some of the people give their vote to those candidates who
belonged to their family or tribe. In this part of the study a comparative strategy uses to
identify different kind of voters. Therefore, five options were given to the respondents about
the candidate. A question is asked from the respondents that, “Why you cast vote in favour
of that candidate in 2013 General Elections? The response of the people correlated with
gender, age, profession, education and geographical regions of the respondents.
9.4.1 Gender Consideration
As far as gender is concerned in Table-187, among the total respondents, some of the male
respondents and female respondents said that they vote to that candidate who belonged to
their family. On the other hand, the rest of male and female respondents supported the
candidate on the basis of popularity, party affiliation, religion and honesty. The P-
value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between
265
gender of the respondents and the reasons of support to different candidates in 2013
election.
Table No. 187
Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections
Gender Candida
te
belonge
d to our
family
He is a
religio
us
person
He is
not a
secula
r
person
He is
not a
corrupt
person
Because
majority
people
support
him
He
belon
gs to
our
party
Don‟t
Know
Any
other
reason
Total
Male 50 160 26 71 43 134 48 94 626
4.5% 14.3% 2.3% 6.3% 3.8% 11.9% 4.3% 8.4% 55.8%
Female 33 105 14 76 41 72 36 119 496
2.9% 9.4% 1.2% 6.8% 3.7% 6.4% 3.2% 10.6% 44.2%
Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122
7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100%
Chi-square test=27.328a, p-value=.000
9.4.2 Age Consideration
As far as age is concerned, among the total respondents, a small number of adults,
teenagers, middle and elderly respondents said that they support to that candidate in election
who belonged to their family. However, a large number of adults, youngsters, middle and
old age respondents a candidate on the basis of religiosity, party affiliation, sincerity and
popularity among the people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is significant which
shows an association between gender of the respondents and the reasons of support to
different candidates in 2013 election (See Table No.188).
Table No. 188
Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections
Age of the
respondents
Candidate
belonged
to our
family
He is a
religious
person
He is
not a
secular
person
He is
not a
corrupt
person
Because
majority
people
support
him
He
belongs
to our
party
Don‟t
know
Any
other
reason
Total
18-23 16 51 13 30 15 23 20 41 209
1.4% 4.5% 1.2% 2.7% 1.3% 2% 1.8% 3.7% 18.6%
23-27 14 43 12 36 12 38 8 38 201
1.2% 3.8% 1.1% 3.2% 1.1% 3.4% 0.7% 3.4% 17.9%
27-32 9 48 3 21 15 50 15 36 197
0.8% 4.3% 0.3% 1.9% 1.3% 4.5% 1.3% 3.2% 17.6%
32-37 11 35 3 14 12 31 16 21 143
266
1% 3.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 1.9% 12.7%
37-42 14 37 1 19 10 20 9 36 146
1.2% 3.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 3.2% 13%
42-50 13 18 5 14 9 27 8 22 116
1.2% 1.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 2% 10.3%
Above 50 6 33 3 13 11 17 8 19 110
0.5% 2.9% 0.3% 1.2% 1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% 9.8%
Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122
7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100%
Chi-square test=61.946a, p-value=.024
9.4.3 Professional Consideration
In terms of profession (See in Table-189), a significant number of businessmen, daily
wagers, government servants, non-government servants, farmers and housewives stated that
they give priority to that contesting candidate in election who belonged to their family.
Nevertheless, a large number of respondents supported candidates on the basis of party
affiliation, religiosity, honesty and popularity among the common people. The P-value<0.05
of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an association between profession
of the respondents and the reasons of support to different candidates in 2013 election.
Table No. 189
Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections
Profession Candida
te
belonge
d to our
family
He is a
religio
us
person
He is not
a secular
person
He is not a
corrupt
person
Because
majority
people
support
him
He
belong
s to
our
party
Don‟t
know
Any
other
reason
Total
Business 8 28 2 11 5 27 11 18 110
0.7% 2.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 2.4% 1.0% 1.6% 9.8%
daily wage 4 29 10 5 10 13 8 16 95
0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 1.4% 8.5%
Governme
nt Servant
18 50 8 30 7 38 14 48 213
1.6% 4.5% 0.7% 2.7% 0.6% 3.4% 1.2% 4.3% 19.0%
Non-
governme
nt servant
14 23 4 17 14 44 10 25 151
1.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.5% 1.2% 3.9% 0.9% 2.2% 13.5%
Farming 7 29 5 11 8 7 3 8 78
267
0.6% 2.6% .4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 7.0%
Unemploy
ed
14 36 4 24 14 36 16 33 177
1.2% 3.2% .4% 2.1% 1.2% 3.2% 1.4% 2.9% 15.8%
Housewiv
es
18 70 7 49 26 41 22 65 298
1.6% 6.2% 0.6% 4.4% 2.3% 3.7% 2.0% 5.8% 26.6%
Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122
7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100%
Chi-square test= 83.804a, p-value=.000
9.4.4 Income Consideration
Among the respondents of different income groups showed in Table-190, some of the
lower, middle and upper class respondents reacted that they vote to that candidate in 2013
election who belonged to their family. However, the rest of the respondents of poor, middle
and upper class support the candidate on the basis of honesty, party affiliation, religiosity
and public popularity. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between income of the respondents and the reasons of support to
different candidates in 2013 election.
Table No. 190
Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections
Income Candidat
e
belonged
to our
family
He is a
religious
person
He is
not a
secular
person
He is
not a
corrupt
person
Because
majority
people
support
him
He
belongs to
our party
Don‟t
know
Any
other
reason
Total
Below1
0,000
21 74 15 26 13 38 22 36 245
1.9% 6.6% 1.3% 2.3% 1.2% 3.4% 2.0% 3.2% 21.8%
10000-
20000
9 39 5 16 18 37 17 24 165
0.8% 3.5% 0.4% 1.4% 1.6% 3.3% 1.5% 2.1% 14.7%
20000-
30000
10 34 8 15 7 31 10 34 149
0.9% 3% 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 2.8% 0.9% 3.0% 13.3%
30000-
40000
6 18 2 17 3 10 2 15 73
0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 1.3% 6.5%
40000-
50000
6 15 0 4 2 10 7 7 51
0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 4.5%
Above
50000
4 10 2 2 1 18 2 13 52
0.4% .9% .2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% .2% 1.2% 4.6%
Don‟t 27 75 8 67 40 62 24 84 387
268
know 2.4% 6.7% .7% 6.0% 3.6% 5.5% 2.1% 7.5% 34.5%
Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122
7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100%
Chi-square test=85.499a, p-value=.000
9.4.5 Educational Consideration
As far as education is concerned, among the total respondents some of the literate that
included primary to post-graduate level and illiterate respondents support a candidate
because he/she belonged to their family. On the other hand, a large number of respondents
support a candidate on the basis of party affiliation, honesty, religiosity and popularity
among the people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which
shows an association between education of the respondents and the reasons of support to
different candidates in 2013 election (See Table No.191).
Table No. 191
Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections
Educatio
n
Candidate
belonged
to our
family
He is a
religio
us
person
He is
not a
secular
person
He is
not a
corrupt
person
Because
majority
people
support him
He
belongs
to our
party
Don‟t
know
Any
other
reason
Total
Primary 5 26 1 10 8 10 7 12 79
0.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% 1.1% 7%
Middle 5 33 5 9 7 18 7 5 89
0.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 7.9%
Matric 15 50 12 31 16 28 26 18 196
1.3% 4.5% 1.1% 2.8% 1.4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.6% 17.5%
Intermedi
ate
9 19 4 10 4 20 11 26 103
0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 1.8% 1% 2.3% 9.2%
BA/BSc 17 37 4 35 11 21 7 49 181
1.5% 3.3% 0.4% 3.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 4.4% 16.1%
MA/MSc 21 45 9 31 13 79 18 52 268
1.9% 4% 0.8% 2.8% 1.2% 7.0% 1.6% 4.6% 23.9%
M.Phil 4 8 2 0 2 2 1 4 23
0.4% 0.7% 0.2% .0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2%
Illiterate 7 47 3 21 23 28 7 47 183
0.6% 4.2% 0.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.5% 0.6% 4.2% 16.3%
Total 83 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 1122
7.4% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 100%
Chi-Square test= 1.381E2a, p-value=.000
269
9.4.6 Regional Consideration
In terms of regional consideration (See in Table-192), among the total respondents, some of
the respondents of northern, central and southern regions affirmed to give priority to that
candidate in election who belonged to their family. On other hand, a large number of the
respondents of northern, central and southern geographical regions support candidates
because of their honesty, religiosity, party affiliation and popularity among the common
people. The P-value<0.05 of the Chi-Square test is highly significant which shows an
association between geographical region of the respondents and the reasons of support to
different candidates in 2013 election.
Table No. 192
Reasons to Support Candidate in 2013 General Elections
Geo
grap
hical
Regi
on
Fami
ly
relati
ons
He is a
religious
person
He is
not a
secula
r
person
He is not
a corrupt
person
Because
majority
people
support
him
He
belongs
to our
party
Don‟t
know
Any
other
reason
Candid
ate
belonge
d to our
family
Total
Nort
h
23 48 11 55 22 83 28 96 14 380
2.0% 4.3% 1.0% 4.9% 2.0% 7.4% 2.5% 8.6% 1.2% 33.9%
Cent
er
7 75 9 43 38 60 13 103 12 360
0.6% 6.7% 0.8% 3.8% 3.4% 5.3% 1.2% 9.2% 1.1% 32.1%
Sout
h
21 142 20 49 24 63 43 14 6 382
1.9% 12.7% 1.8% 4.4% 2.1% 5.6% 3.8% 1.2% 0.5% 34%
Tota
l
51 265 40 147 84 206 84 213 32 1122
4.5% 23.6% 3.6% 13.1% 7.5% 18.4% 7.5% 19% 2.9% 100%
Chi-square test=1.650E2a, p-value=.000
Summary
There are different socio-political and psychological determinants of voting behaviour in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The dominant determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa are party identification, religion, issues and personality. Similarly, social
networks (family, friends, relatives) also playing a key role in shaping the political
behaviour of the electorate in the election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the Pakhtun society
270
still, social networks have a strong bond. Social networks have a direct link with the
political socialization of an individual.
To sum up we can say that social networks have the significant role in shaping
voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A multi-variable scale use to identify those
voters whose vote choice is dependent on social networks. In the survey, a considerable
number of respondents agreed to vote a candidate who belongs to their tribe or kinship. On
the other hand, a significant number of respondents said that vote should be given to that
candidate who is supported by the family (Mashar) elder. Lastly, when a question is asked
that who influences your vote decision? Among the total respondents, a major portion of the
respondents said that the family head influences their vote choice. However, a small number
of said friends and relatives influence their vote choice. The assessment of the data shows
that social networks are one of the significant determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
271
CONCLUSION
The electoral history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is full of ups and downs of the
different political parties. The first election in the history of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was
conducted in 1932 before the creation of Pakistan. Since 1932, the electoral process
continues in different political regimes. Nonetheless, these political regimes had influence
on the elections results and political parties‟ positions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa has been the centre of ethno-nationalist, leftist and religious political parties
that include Awami National Party, Pakistan People Party, Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-F, Jamiat
Ulema-e-Islam-S, Jamaat-e-Islami and Qawmi Watan Party. These political parties actively
participate in the electoral politics. Vote bank of contesting political parties has been
changing and fluctuating in each election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Hence, different political
parties came into power in three (2002, 2008 and 2013) elections. In general elections 2002,
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) a group of six religious political parties was voted to
power. Religious factor was more dominant in shaping voting behaviour in the majority
constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the polls. However, in general elections 2008, the
electorates of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa voted out MMA and elected Awami National Party
(ANP) and Pakistan People Party (PPP) with a majority vote. In 2008 elections, ethnicity,
partisanship, local issues (terrorism and energy crisis) influence the voters‟ preferences.
Contrary to that, in general elections 2013, voters rejected Awami National Party (ANP)
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and religious political parties by supporting Pakistan Tehreek-
e-Insaf (PTI) with a majority vote. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has caused a major dent
in the vote-bank of Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-F, Awami National Party and Pakistan Peoples
Party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The slogan „Change‟ different from the slogans of other
political parties attracted the electorates. This overall political scenario identified a
considerable ratio of floating voters that affected the elections results in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. The study found that floating voters have changed their political loyalties in
272
each election. Therefore, different political parties get the majority voters support in each
election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Although, the data depict that majority of the voters are
partisan voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, yet, it is still presumed that floating voters
manipulate the elections result.
During the election campaign, the political parties and contesting candidates are
using party slogans, personal influence, national and international issues, religion and social
networks to convince the partisan and the floating voters. To identify floating voters the
researcher compared the results of the three recent general elections (2002, 2008 and 2013)
of the six national assembly constituencies. The comparison of the three elections results of
each constituency shows that the vote bank of winning political party/candidate is lesser
than its previous vote bank. This variation of party vote bank in each election exposes a
shift of voters‟ preferences from one political party to the other one. To operationalize the
floating voters‟ hypothesis the researcher used a four variables scale. The inference of the
first variable represents that many respondents decide to vote one day prior or on polling
day. Secondly, a significant number of voters did not even read the manifesto of the
political party. Those respondents who decide to vote one day before or on polling day
predict their lack of interest in electoral processes, while those who did not read the
manifesto of a political party have less political understanding and knowledge about the
political parties. Therefore, such voters may easily change their political affiliation and
voting preferences. Thirdly, a considerable number of respondents showed their un-
satisfaction with the party voted to power in elections. Lastly, a large number of
respondents did not participate in party meetings even though they were having membership
of the party. The voter‟s un-satisfaction from a political party they voted in election
presumed their distrust in the party. In such a case the voter can switch to other political
parties in the next election. Nonetheless, voter‟s lack of participation in party meetings may
273
change his political affiliation or voting preferences. All these inferences identified a
considerable number of floating voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The party identification theory sorted out a large number of partisan voters among
the respondents. The findings of the study present different results than those of
Farmanullah and Fakhrul Islam (2014) who argued that party identification is not a
determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The findings of the data figured
out completely different statistics of party affiliated voters in General Elections 2013, as
majority of the respondents have the membership of political parties. A large number of
respondents have a perception that vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation,
thus making party identification a significant determinant of voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
Another important determinant of voting behaviour is issue voting. The „Issue
Ownership Theory‟ and „The Riding the Wave Theory‟ were operationalized to identify the
issue voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The data shows that local and national issues played a
significant role in shaping voting behaviour in General Elections 2013. A three variable
model scale is used for measuring the issue voting. The first variable is voter‟s identification
of issues such as terrorism, poverty, illiteracy, energy crisis, unemployment etc.
Nonetheless, a significant number of respondents agreed that vote should be given to that
political party that can eliminate poverty, ignorance, load-shedding and terrorism. On the
other hand, a major portion of respondents opined that vote should be cast for the political
party that can resolve the local issues. Thus it can be concluded that local and national
issues consistently influence the voters‟ preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The candidate‟s personality is also an important determinant which influences the
voters‟ choice in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. There are a considerable number of independent
candidates who contested elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The supporters of independent
candidates are inspired primarily from the candidate‟s personal influence. It is observed that
274
some candidates who contested elections have more influence in the particular constituency
than the political parties. Therefore, political parties are intended to allot tickets to those
candidates who have personal influence in their constituencies. By applying „Five Factor
Model (FFM) of Personality‟ data was analyzed and tested which sorted out the role of the
candidate‟s personality in shaping voting behaviour. The perception of vote choice and the
candidate‟s personality variable was endorsed by a large number of respondents. Many
respondents believed that vote should be given on the basis of the personality of a
candidate. The second important variable is the candidate‟s participation in the social
activities i.e., joys and sorrows (Gham Aw Khadi) etc. In the opinion of a significant number
of respondents, vote should be cast to that candidate who is participating in the social
activities of common people. Nevertheless, some of the respondents accepted that vote
should be given to that candidate who is economically and politically influential. While,
many of respondents said that vote should be given to an independent candidate rather than
the political party‟s candidate. The assessment of the data depicted that the personality of
the candidate also influenced the voting behaviour in 2013 elections in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.
Religion is also assumed to be a key factor in determining the voting behaviour of
people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is also observed that the ratio of religious political
parties‟ voters is growing in each election. The inferences of the data identified that religion
have a great impact on voters‟ choice in election. A three variable scale was used to find out
religious voting. Some of the respondents want the implementation of „Sharia Law‟ in
Pakistan hence; they were supporting religious political parties. They believed that except
religious political no one can implement „Sharia Law‟ in Pakistan. In their opinion only
religious political parties (JUI-F, JI and JUI-S) in Pakistan should be allowed. In many of
the respondents opinion vote is a sacred responsibility which only be given to the people
who are eligible for that and the religious political parties have the most appropriate people
275
in their ranks, hence, vote should be given to religious political parties only. The assessment
of the data demonstrated that religion in also a significant determinant of voting behaviour
in General Elections 2013 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Social networks are important elements of the Pakhtun social structure. The
existence of strong social structure in Pakhtun society, social networks have an important
role in the individual life. Hence, social networks (family, friends, elders and relatives)
effectively influence the voters‟ preferences in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The assessment of the
data revealed that social networks are also key determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa. A significant number of respondents argued to vote for a candidate who
belongs to their tribe or kinship. Apart from that, a considerable number of respondents
opined that vote should be given to that candidate who is being supported by the family
elder (Mashar). Lastly, on the question, “who influenced their voting decision”, a
significant number of respondents admitted that head of the family and friends playing a
key role in their vote choice. Some of the respondents said that their relatives influence their
vote preferences. The estimation of the data shows that social networks are also one of the
significant determinants of voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
This study identifies some other areas in electoral study in Pakistan in general and in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in particular for future studies in the field. For example why political
parties are weak in Pakistan/Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Why the ratio of turnout in elections is
low in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Why is political parties‟ membership declining day by day?
Why people vote for independent candidates in elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? How is
the female voting behaviour in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? Are female voters independently
using their vote in elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa? These are some areas of research
which need further exploration in M.Phil and PhD level studies.
276
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journals/ Research Papers/ Newspapers Articles
Achen, C. (1992). Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression:
Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research, Political Behavior 14, 195–211.
Adams, J. & Samuel, M. (2005). Candidates‟ Policy Platforms and Election
Outcomes: The three Faces of Policy Representation. European Journal of
Political Research, 44(6), 899-918.
Ahmad, A. (1978). Democracy and Dictatorship in Pakistan. Journal of Contemporary
Asia, 8(4), 477-512.
Ahmad, I., Hina, G., Ishaq, M. (2017). Election Campaign Strategies of PML-N 2013,
Journal of Politics and International Studies, 3(1), 37-58.
Ahmad, K. (2006). Terrorism and War against Terrorism: Some Fundamental Issues,
Policy Perspectives 3(2), 1-10.
Ahmad, M. (2009). Relationship between Political Parties and Non-Political Powers: An
Analysis with Reference to Pakistan, Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS),
29(1), 107-115.
Ahmad, M. (2010). Implications of the War on Terror for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan,
Journal of Critical Globalization Studies, 3, 102-113.
Ahmad, M. S. (2011). Electoral Politics in NWFP: A Study of 1937 Elections, Pakistan
Journal of History and Culture, XXXII (2), 117-131.
Ahmad, M. S., Memon, A., & Rabi, F. (2014). Electoral Politics of the North West
Frontier Province of Colonial India 1946-47, History and Sociology of South Asia,
8 (I), 1-19.
Ahmad, S. (1985). Dominance of Powerful Families in the New Politics, DAWN.
Albright, J. (2009). Does Political Knowledge Erode Party Attachments? A Review of the
Cognitive Mobilization Thesis. Electoral Studies, 28, 248-260.
Alford, J. R., Funk, C. L., & Hibbing, J. R. (2005). Are political orientations genetically
transmitted?. American political science review, 99(2), 153-167.
Alvarez, R. M., & Nagler, J. (2004). Party System Compactness: Measurement and
Consequences. Political Analysis, 12(1), 46-62.
Aman, S. (2012). Politics of Patrimonialism Revisited: The Case of Afghan State Making
and Unmaking”, Central Asian Journal, 71.
Ansari, Z. A., & Moten, A. R. (2003). Crisis to Crisis: Musharraf‟s Personal Rule and 2002
Elections in Pakistan, The Muslim World, 93(3), 373-390.
277
Ansolabehere, S., & Iyengar, S. (1994). Riding the Wave and Claiming Ownership over
Issues: The Joint effects of Advertising and News Coverage in Campaigns. Public
Opinion Quarterly, 58(3), 335-357.
Athar, A. (2002). Moving in the Circle, The Nation, 18th October, Lahore, Pakistan.
Awan, M. W. (2016). Impact of Baradari Affiliation on Electoral Contests for Power in
Khushab District (1982-2008), Journal of the Research Society of Pakistan, 53 (2),
105-113.
Azeem, A. (2002). Religious Alliance and Mubasreen, Editorial, The Daily Jang, 16th
October, Lahore, Pakistan.
Barbaranelli, C., Caprara, G. V., & Maslach, C. (1997). Individuation and the Five Factor
Model of Personality Traits. European Journal of Psychological Assessment, 13,
75-84.
Barnea, M. F., & Schwartz, S. H. (1998). Values and Voting. Political Psychology, 19(1),
17-40.
Bartels, L. M. (1996). Uninformed votes: Information effects in Presidential
Elections. American Journal of Political Science, 40, 194-230.
Baxter, C. (1971). Pakistan Votes-1970, Asian Survey, 11(3), 197-218.
Belanger, E., & Meguid, B. M. (2008). Issue Salience, Issue Ownership and Issue-Based
Vote Choice, Electoral Studies, 27, 477-491.
Blais, A. (2004). How Many Voters Change Their Minds in the Month Preceding an
Election? Political Science and Politics, 38, 801-803.
Blais, A., & Galais, C. (2015). Measuring the Civic Duty to Vote: A Proposal. 111th
American Political Science Association (APSA) Annual Meeting, San Francisco.
Blais, A., Gidengil, E., Nevitte, N., Nadeau, R. (2004). Where does Turnout Decline Come
From? European Journal of Political Research, 43, 221-236.
Blais, A., Héroux-Legault, M., Stephenson, L., Cross, W., & Gidengil, E. (2012).
Assessing the Psychological and Mechanical Impact of Electoral Rules: A
Quasi-experiment. Electoral Studies, 31(4), 829-837.
Blais, A., Nadeau, R., Gidengil, E., Nevitte, N. (2001). Measuring Strategic Voting in
Multiparty Plurality Elections. Electoral Studies, 20, 343-352.
Block, J., & Block, J. H. (2006). Nursery School Personality and Political Orientation two
Decades Later. Journal of Research in Personality, 40(5), 734-749.
Brody, R., Rothenberg, L. (1988). The Instability of Partisanship: An Analysis of the 1980
Presidential Election. British Journal of Political Science, 18, 445-66.
Burdina, M. (2014). Wave Riding or Owning the Issue: How do Candidates Determine
Campaign Agendas? The American Economist, 59(2), 139-152.
278
Campbell, J. E., Dettrey, B. J., Yin, H. (2010). The Theory of Conditional Retrospective
Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections? The
Journal of Politics, 72(4), 1083–1095.
Caprara, G. V. (2002). Personality Psychology: Filling the Gap between basic Processes
and Molar Functioning. Psychology at the turn of the millennium, 2, 201-224.
Caprara, G. V., & Zimbardo, P. (2004). Personalizing Politics: A Congruency Model of
Political Preference. American Psychologist, 59, 581–594.
Caprara, G. V., Barbaranelli, C., & Zimbardo, P. (1999). Personality Profiles and Political
Parties. Political Psychology, 20, 175–197.
Caprara, G. V., Barbaranelli, C., & Zimbardo, P. (2002). When Parsimony Subdues
Distinctiveness: Simplified Public Perceptions of Politicians‟ Personality. Political
Psychology, 23, 77–96.
Caprara, G. V., Barbaranelli, C., Bermudez, J., Maslach, C., & Ruch, W. (2000).
Multivariate Methods for the Comparison of Factor Structures in Cross-cultural
Research: An Illustration with the Big Five questionnaire. Journal of Cross
Cultural Psychology, 31, 437-464.
Caprara, G. V., Barbaranelli, C., Borgogni, L., & Perugini, M. (1993). The Big Five
Questionnaire: A new Questionnaire to Assess the Five Factor Model. Personality
and Individual Differences, 15, 281-288.
Caprara, G. V., Barbaranelli, C., Livi, S. (1994). Mapping Personality Dimensions in the
Big Five model. European Review of Applied Psychology, 44, 9–15.
Carmines, E. G., Stimson, J. A. (1980). The Two Faces of Issue Voting, The American
Political Science Review, 74(1), 78-91.
Carney, D. R., Jost, J. T., Gosling, S. D., & Potter, J. (2008). The Secret Lives of Liberals
and Conservatives: Personality Profiles, Interaction Styles, and the things they
leave behind. Political Psychology, 29(6), 807-840.
Chandio, A. A. (2011). Non-Party Based General Election of 1985: Causes and Effect. In
Proc. 2011 International Conference of Social Science and Humanity, Singapore:
IPEDR, 5, 511.
Claassen, R. L. (2007). Floating voters and floating activists: Political change and
information. Political Research Quarterly, 60(1), 124-134.
Conference paper presented at APSA 2010: The 106th Annual Meeting of the American
Political Science Association, Washington DC.
Conover, P. J. (1985). The Impact of Group Economic Interests on Political Evaluations.
American Politics Quarterly, 13(2), 139-166.
Converse, P. (1969). Of Time and Partisan Stability. Comparative Political Studies, 2, 139-
171.
279
Converse, P. E. (1962). Information Flow and the Stability of Partisan Attitudes. The
Public Opinion Quarterly, 26, 578-599.
Craig, S. (1985). Partisanship, Independence, and no Preference: Another Look at the
Measurement of Party Identification. American Journal of Political Science, 29(2),
274- 90.
Crow, D. (2005). Crossing Party Lines: Volatility and Ticket Splitting in Mexico (1994-
2000). Bulletin of Latin American Research, 24, 1-22.
Curtice, J. (2002). The State of Election Studies: Mid-life Crisis or New Youth? Electoral
Studies, 21(2), 161-168.
Dalton, R. J. (2007). Partisan Mobilization, Cognitive Mobilization and the Changing
American Electorate. Electoral Studies, 26(2), 274-286.
Dalton, R., & Weldon, S. (2005). Public Images of Political Parties: A Necessary Evil?
West European Politics, 28, 931-951.
Dassonneville, R. (2012). Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy:
A Study on Changes in Voter Preferences during the Belgian Regional Elections
of 2009. Acta Politica, 47, 18-41.
Dassonneville, R. Dejaeghere, Y. (2014). Bridging the Ideological Space. A Cross-
National Analysis of the Distance of Party Switching. European Journal of
Political Research, 53(3), 580-599.
Dassonneville, R., Blais, A., Dejaeghere, Y. (2015). Staying with the Party, Switching or
Exiting? A Comparative Analysis of Determinants of Party Switching and
Abstaining. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 25, 387-405.
Davies, J. C. (1965). The Family‟s Role in Political Socialization. Annals of the American
Academy of Political and Social Science, 361(1), 10–19.
Digman, J. M. (1990). Personality Structure: Emergence of the Five Factors Model. Annual
Review of Psychology, 41, 417-440.
Dorussen, H., and Taylor, M. (2001). The Political Context of Issue-Priority Voting:
Coalitions and Economic Voting in Netherlands, 1970-1999. Electoral Studies,
20(3), 399-426.
Dreyer, E. C. (1971). Media Use and Electoral Choices: Some Political Consequences of
Information Exposure, Public Opinion Quarterly, XXIV, 544-553.
Drummond, A. (2006). Electoral Volatility and Party decline in Western Democracies:
1970-1995. Political Studies, 54(3), 628-647.Duckitt, J., & Sibley, C. G. (2010).
Personality, Ideology, Prejudice, and Politics: A Dual‐process Motivational
Model. Journal of Personality, 78(6), 1861-1894.
Election Commission of Pakistan (2002). General Election 2002 (Report Vol. II),
Islamabad.
280
Election Commission of Pakistan (2008). General Election 2008 (Report Vol. II),
Islamabad.
Election Commission of Pakistan (2013). General Election 2013 (Report Vol. II),
Islamabad.
Fowler, A. and Margolis, M. (2014). The Political Consequences of Uninformed Voters.
Electoral Studies, 34,100-110.
Fraley, R. C., Griffin, B. N., Belsky, J., & Roisman, G. I. (2012). Developmental
Antecedents of Political Ideology: A Longitudinal Investigation from Birth to Age
18 years. Psychological Science, 23(11), 1425-1431.
Franklin, C., & Jackson, J. (1983). The Dynamics of Party Identification, American
Political Science Review, 77, 957-73.
Gallup Pakistan (2013). Based on Gallup Exit Poll data and ECP data, Compiled by Gallup
Election Studies Team Pakistan.
Gerber, A. S., Huber, G. A., Doherty, D., Dowling, C. M., Raso, C., & Ha, S. E. (2011).
Personality Traits and Participation in Political Processes. The Journal of Politics,
73(3), 692-706.
Gerber, A., & Green, D. (1998). Rational Learning and Partisan Attitudes, American
Political Science Review, 42, 794-818.
Goldberg, L. R. (1992). The Development of Markers for the Big-Five Factor Structure.
Psychological Assessment, 4(1), 26.
Gopoian, J. D., and Sissie. H. S. (1994). Late-Deciding Voters in Presidential Elections,
Political Behavior, 16(1), 55-78.
Gosling, S. D., Rentfrow, P. J., & Swann Jr, W. B. (2003). A very brief measure of the
Big-Five Personality Domains. Journal of Research in Personality, 37(6), 504-
528.
Granovetter, M. S. (1973). The Strength of Weak Ties, The American Journal of
Sociology, 78(6), 1360-1380.
Green, J. (2007). When Voters and Parties Agree: Valence Issues and Party Competition.
Forthcoming in Political Studies, 55(3), 629-655.
Hansen, T., and Jensen, J. M. (2007). Understanding Voters‟ Decisions: A Theory of
Planned Behaviour Approach, Innovative Marketing, 3(4), 87-94.
Hasnain, Z. (2008). The Politics of Service Delivery in Pakistan: Political Parties and the
Incentives for Patronage, 1988-1999, The Pakistan Development Review, 47(2),
129-151.
Hassan, S. M. U. (2008). 1951 General Elections in the NWFP, Pakistan Journal of
History and Culture, XXIX (2), 1-28.
281
Hayes, M. B. (1997). Gender, Party Leaders, and Election Outcomes in Australia, Britain
and United States, Comparative Political Studies, 30, 3-26.
Healy, A., & Malhotra, N. (2013). Childhood Socialization and Political Attitudes:
Evidence from a Natural Experiment. The Journal of Politics, 75(4), 1023-1037.
Hiel, A. V., & Mervielde, I. (2004). Openness to Experience and Boundaries in the Mind:
Relationships with Cultural and Economic Conservative Beliefs. Journal of
Personality, 72(4), 659-686.
Hill, S. J., Lo, J., Vavreck, L., & Zaller, J. (2013). How quickly we forget: The Duration of
Persuasion effects from Mass Communication. Political Communication, 30(4),
521- 547.
Hobbs, W. R., Christakis, N. A., & Fowler, J. H. (2014). Widowhood effects in Voter
Participation. American Journal of Political Science, 58(1), 1-16.
Inglehart, R. (1977). Political Dissatisfaction and Mass support for Social Change in
advanced Industrial Society. Comparative Political Studies, 10(3), 455-472.
Islam, U. F. (2010). The Decisive Decade of Freedom Movement (1937-1947), The
Dialogue, 5(1), 51-77.
Jakopovich, D. (2014). The Concept of Class, Cambridge Studies in Social Research
SSRG, 14, 1-27.
Jamaat-i-Islami. (2013, April 5). DAWN.
Javaid, U. and Elahi, U. (2014). Patterns of Political Perceptions, Attitudes and Voting
Behaviour: Influence of Media, South Asian Studies, 29(2), 363-378.
Jennings, M. K, and Niemi, R. G. (1968). The Transmission of Political Values from
Parent to Child. American Political Science Review, 62(1), 169-84.
Jennings, M. K., Stoker, L., & Bowers, J. (2009). Politics across Generations: Family
Transmission Reexamined. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 782-799.
Jost, J. T. (2006). The End of the End of Ideology, American Psychologist, 61(7), 651-70.
Jost, J. T. (2009). Elective affinities: On the Psychological bases of left–right differences.
Psychological Inquiry, 20(2-3), 129-141.
Jost, J. T., Napier, J. L., Thorisdottir, H., Gosling, S. D., Palfai, T. P., & Ostafin, B. (2007).
Are needs to Manage Uncertainty and Threat Associated with Political
Conservatism or Ideological Extremity?. Personality and Social Psychology
Bulletin, 33(7), 989- 1007.
Khalil, U., Islam, M., Chattha, S. A., & Qazalbash, F. (2017). Persuasion and Political
Discourse: A Critical Discourse Analysis of Imran Khan‟ s Election Speech
(2013). Pakistan Vision, 18(2), 193-210.
282
Khan, A. A. (2012). Institutional Dualism and its Impact on Elections: The Case of Patron-
Client Networks in Bangladesh, International Journal of Small Economies, 3(1),
11-22.
Khan, J. (2014). The Rise of Political Islam in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: The Case of
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), The Dialogue, IX(3), 299-212.
Khan, K. A. (2011). 2002 Elections in Pakistan: A Reappraisal, Journal of Political
Studies, 18(1), 93-108.
Khan, M. H. (2005). Markets, States and Democracy: Patron-Client Networks and the Case
of Democracy in Developing Countries, Democratization, 12(5), 704-724.
Khan, S. (2013, 4th
May). The Coining of the „Naya Pakistan‟ Slogan. The Express
Tribune.
Kizilbash, H. H. (1988) Anti-Americanism in Pakistan, The Annals of the American
Academy of Political and Social Science, 497, 58-67.
Kuhn, U. (2009). Stability and Change in Party Preference. Swiss Political Science Review,
15, 285-325.
Kwon, H. Y. (2008). A Dynamic Analysis of Partisan Voting: The Issue Salience Effect of
Unemployment in South Korea, Electoral Studies, 27(3), 518-532.
Lachat, R. (2011). Electoral Competitiveness and Issue Voting. Political Behavior, 33(4),
645-663.
Ladbury, S. and Khan, S. (2008). Increased Religiosity among Women in Muslim Majority
Countries, Issue Paper, Governance and Social Development Resource Centre
(GSDRC), 1-33.
Latif, A. Usman, A. Kataria, J. R. Abdullah, M. (2015). Female Political Participation in
South Asia: A Case Study of Pakistan, A Research Journal of South Asian Studies,
30 (2), 201-213.
Lijphart, A. (1979). Religious vs. Linguistic vs. Class Voting, American Political
Science Review, 73, 442-58.
Lindberg, S. L., & Weghorst, K. R. (2010). Are Swing Voters Instruments of Democracy
or Farmers of Clientelism? Evidence from Ghana, QoG Working Paper Series
2010:17, The Quality of Government Institute, Department of Political Science,
University of Gothenburg.
Lisi, M. (2010). The Consequences of Cognitive Mobilization in Comparative Perspective:
Political Sophistication and Voting Behavior in Old and New Democracies.
Maccoby, E. E. et al., (1954). Youth and Political Change, Public Opinion Quarterly, 18,
23-39.
Manza, J., & Brooks, C. (1997). The religious factor in US presidential elections, 1960–
1992. American Journal of Sociology, 103(1), 38-81.
283
Manza, J., Hout, M., & Brooks, C. (1995). Class Voting in Capitalist Democracies since
World War II: De-alignment, Realignment, or Trendless Fluctuation? Annual
Review of Sociology, 21, 137-63.
Marsh, M. (1993). Selecting Party Leaders in the Republic of Ireland. European Journal of
Political Research, 24, 295-316.
Marthaler, S. (2008). The Paradox of the Politically Sophisticated Partisan: The French
Case. West European Politics, 31(5), 937-959.
McClosky, H. (1958). Conservatism and Personality, American Political Science Review,
52, 27-45.
McCrae, R. R. (1996). Social Consequences of Experiential Openness. Psychological
Bulletin, 120(3), 323.
McCrae, R. R., & John, O. P. (1992). An Introduction to the Five-factor Model and its
Applications, Journal of Personality, 60, 175-216.
Meer, V. T., Elsas, V. E., Lubbe, R., & Brug, V. W. (2015). Are Volatile Voters Erratic,
Whimsical or Seriously Picky? A Panel Study of 58 Waves into the Nature of
Electoral Volatility (The Netherlands 2006-2010). Party Politics, 21, 100-114.
Volatility. European Journal of Political Research, 7, 1-26.
Mehboob, S. R. (2011). Governance and Militancy in Pakistan‟s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1-10.
Mehmood, Z. (2015). Political Turmoil and Military Era of General Musharraf (1988-
2007), JPUHS, 28(2), 239-251.
Mehrabian, A. (1996). Relations among political attitudes, personality, and
psychopathology assessed with new measures of libertarianism and
conservatism. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 18(4), 469-491.
Michael, H., Brooks, C., & Manza, J. (1995). The Democratic Class Struggle in the United
States, 1948–1992, American Sociological Review, 60, 805-828.
Mondak, J. J., & D Halperin , K. A. R. E. N. (2008). A framework for the Study of
Personality and Political Behaviour. British Journal of Political Science, 38(2),
335-362.
Mufti, M. (2009). Dynastic Politics in South Asia, South Asian Journal.
Mujahid, S. (1965). Pakistan‟s First Presidential Elections, Asian Survey, 5, 280-94.
Mujahid, S. (1965a). The Assembly Elections in Pakistan, Asian Survey, 5, 538-51.
Mushtaq, A. Q., Ibrahim, M., & Kaleem, M. (2013). Dynastic Politics in Pakistan,
International Journal of History and Research, 3(4), 1-12.
284
Muxel, A. (2009). EU movers and politics: towards a fully-fledged European citizenship?
Pioneers of European Integration: Citizenship and Mobility in the EU.
Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 156-178.
Nelson, M. (2009). Pakistan in 2008, Moving Beyond Musharraf, Asian Survey, 49(1), 16-
27.
Niemi, R. G., & Jennings, M. K. (1991). Issues and Inheritance in the Formation of Party
Identification, American Journal of Political Science, 35, 970-88.
Ozer, D. J., & Benet-Martinez, V. (2006). Personality and the Prediction of Consequential
Outcomes. Annual Review Psychology, 57, 401-421.
Pakistan People‟s Party (1970). The Election Manifesto, Lahore: Pakistan People‟s Party.
Pakistani Taliban Target ANP Leaders during Election Campaign. (2013, April 14). The
Guardian.
Perveen, K. (2000). The Constitutional and Political Dimensions of Eight Amendment,
Pakistan Journal of History and Culture, XXI(1), 67-92.
Petrocik, J. R. (1989). An expected party vote: New data for an old concept. American
Journal of Political Science, 44-66.
Petrocik, J. R. (1996). Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study.
American journal of political science, 825-850.
Pillai, K. G., Hodgkinson, G. P., Kalyanaram, G., & Nair, S. R. (2017). The Negative
Effects of Social Capital in Organizations: A Review and Extension.
International Journal of Management Reviews, 19(1), 97-124.
Plutzer, E. (2002). Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young
Adulthood. American Political Science Review, 96(1), 41-56.
Political „Fatwa‟: Vote for PTI is haram, Says Maulana Fazal (2013, May 5), The Express
Tribune.
Powell, R. (2004). Bargaining and learning while fighting. American Journal of Political
Science, 48(2), 344-361.
Quintelier, E., Hooge, M., Badescu, G. (2007). Parental Influence on Adolescents‟
Political Participation; A Comparison of Belgian, Canadian and Romanian Survey
Data, International Conference on Political Socialization, Örebro Universitet
Sweden.
Rais, R. B. (1985). Elections in Pakistan: Is Democracy Winning? Asian Affairs: An
American Review, 12(3), 43-61.
Rapoport, R. B., & Stone, W. J. (1994). A Model for Disaggregating Political Change.
Political Behavior, 16(4), 505-532.
285
Rauf, A. (2006). Socio-Educational Reforms Movement in NWFP: A Case Study of
Anjuman-i-Islah-ul-Afaghina, Pakistan Journal of History and Culture, XXVI(2),
31-60.
Rauf, A., Ayaz, M. (2011).The Rise of Religious Politics in Pakistan: A Case Study of
October 2002 Elections in KP (NWFP), Journal of Humanities and Social
Sciences, XIX (2), 105-122.
Rizwan, M. (2014). 1970 Elections in Pakistan: A Case-study of NWFP and Balochistan,
Asian Journal of Social Sciences & Humanities, 3(4), 208-216.
Roccas, S., Sagiv, L., Schwartz, S. H., & Knafo, A. (2002). The Big Five Personality
Factors and Personal Values, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 28,
789-201.
Roets, A., & Van Hiel, A. (2009). The Ideal Politician: Impact of Voters‟ Ideology.
Personality and Individual Differences, 46(1), 60-65.
Rose, R. & Unwin, D. (1969). Social Cohesion, Political Parties, and Strains in Regimes,
Comparative Political Studies, 2, 7-67.
Rose, R. and Urwin, D.W. (1970). Persistence and Change in Western Party Systems since
1945, Political Studies, 18(3), 287-319.
Sapiro, V. (2004). „Not your Parents‟ Political Socialization, Introduction for a new
Generation, Annual Review of Political Science 7, 1–23.
Scarrow, S. E. (2017). The Changing Nature of Political Party Membership. In Oxford
Research Encyclopedia of Politics.
Schwartz, S. H., Melech, G., Lehmann, A., Burgess, S., & Harris, M. (2001). Extending
the Cross Cultural Validity of the Theory of Basic Human Values with a Different
Method of Measurement, Journal of Cross Cultural Psychology, 32, 519-42.
Settle, J, C. T., Dawes, P. K., Hatemi, N. A., Christakis, and Fowler, J. H. (2008).
Friendships moderate an association between a dopamine gene variant and
political ideology. SSRN working paper. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1186260.
Shah, M. H., Yaqoob, M., Kausar, S., & Kumar, A. (2016). Correlation Between
Newspapers‟ Agenda and Public Agenda on National Issues during General
Elections 2013 in Pakistan, International Journal of Journalism and
Communication, 1(1), 1-10.
Siddiqa, A. (2008, November 21), A Regime-less Change, DAWN.
Soderlund, P. (2008). Retrospective Voting and Electoral Volatility: A Nordic Perspective
States, Electoral Studies, 10, 208-230.
Sotirovic, M., & McLeod, J. M. (2001). Values, Communication Behavior and Political
Participation, Political Communication, 18(3), 273-300.
286
Status of Women in Pakistan (2010). Women Entrepreneurs Information Network (WEIN),
retrieved on January 2, 2018, available at: http://www.win.org.pk/page.php?page_id=4
Syed, A. H. (1991). The Pakistan People‟s Party and the Punjab: National Assembly
Elections, 1988 and 1990, Asian Survey, 31(7), 581-597.
Tesser, A. (1993). The Importance of Heritability in Psychological Research: The Case of
Attitudes, Psychological Review, 100(1), 129-42.
The Herald, (October 2002). p.32.
Thomassen, J., & Schmitt, H. (1997). Policy Representation. European Journal of Political
Research, 32(2), 165-184.
Tiberj, V. (2015). Going against the Tide: Experimental Design for measuring Prejudices
in France, APSA Migration and Citizenship Newsletter, (winter 2015-2016),
27-33.
Tilley, J., & Hobolt, S. B. (2011). Is the Government to Blame? An Experimental Test of
how Partisanship shapes Perceptions of Performance and Responsibility, The
Journal of Politics, 73(2), 316-330.
Tomz, M., & Houwelin, R. P. V. (2008). Candidate Positioning and Voter Choice,
American Political Science Review, 102(3), 303-318.
Tresch, A., Lefevere, J., & Walgrave, S. (2015). „Steal me if you can!‟ The Impact of
Campaign Messages on Associative Issue Ownership, Party Politics, 21(2), 198-
208.
Thomassen, J., & Schmitt, H. (1997). Policy Representation. European Journal of Political
Research, 32(2), 165-184.
Ullah, A. (2008). The Role of Political Parties in the 2002 National Elections of Pakistan,
Pakistan Journal of History & Culture, XXIX(1), 97-121.
Usama, T., & Osmani, N. M. (2006) Sayyid Mawdudi's Contribution towards Islamic
Revivalism, IIUC STUDIES, 3, 395-104.
Usman, A., Munawar, R., & Amjad, A., (2013). Determinants of Effective Electoral
Campaign, South Asian Studies, 28(1), 107-126.
Valentino, N.A., & Sears, D.O. (1998). Event-Driven Political Communication and the
Pre- adult Socialization of Partisanship, Political Behavior, 20(2), 127-154.
Vecchione, M., Schoen, H., Castro, J. L. G., Cieciuch, J., Pavlopoulos, V., & Caprara, G.
V. (2011). Personality Correlates of Party Preference: The Big Five in Five Big
European Countries, Personality and Individual Differences, 51(6), 737-742.
Visser, M. (1998). Five theories of voting action: strategy and structure of psychological
explanation.(Retrieved from https://www.utwente.nl/bms/csd/PhD%20students/thesis%20Max%20Visser.pdf (January 5, 2016).
287
Warriach, S. (2002). Election 2002, Facts and Figures. The Daily Jang, 10.
Weinbaum, M. G. (1977). The March 1977 Elections in Pakistan: Where everyone Lost,
Asian Survey, 17 (7), 599-618.
Westholm, A. (1997). Distance versus Direction: The Illusory Defeat of the Proximity
Theory of Electoral Choice. American Political Science Review, 91(4), 865-883.
Willocq, S. (2016a). Why Do Voters Change Their Mind during an Election Campaign?
An Analysis of the Determinants of Campaign Volatility at the 2014 Belgian
Federal Elections, Open Journal of Political Science, 6, 363-386.
Willocq, S. (September 2016b). Why Do They Take Longer to Make up Their Mind? A
Comparative Study on Late Deciding Voters in Western Democracies, EPOP
Conference: University of Kent, 9-11.
Yaseen, Z., Ahmed, M. A., & Butt, T. M. (2016). Hypothical Political System of Martial
Laws: A Case Study of General Zia-Ul- Haq, Journal of the Punjab University
Historical Society, 29(1), 122-132.
Youth and UNDP (2010). United Nation Development Program (UNDP) Pakistan,
retrieved March 10, 2018 http://undp.org.pk/undp-and-the-youth.html.
Zaller, J. (2004). Floating Voters in US Presidential Elections, 1948-2000. Studies in
Public Opinion: Attitudes, Non-attitudes, Measurement Error, and Change, 166,
214.
Zaller, J., & Feldman, S. (1992). A Simple Theory of the Survey Response: Answering
Questions versus Revealing Preferences. American journal of political science,
579-616.
Zelle, C. (1995). Social De-alignment versus Political Frustration: Contrasting
Explanations of the Floating Vote in Germany, European Journal of
Political Research, 27, 319-345.
288
Books and PhD Dissertations
Ahmad, M. S. (2010). Electoral Politics in NWFP. 1988-1999. PhD Dissertation,
Islamabad: National Institute of Pakistan Studies Quaid-i-Azam University.
Ahmad, S. (1977). Class and Power in Punjabi Village. Lahore: Punjab Adbi Markaz.
Berelson, B., Lazarsfeld, P.F., McPhee, W. (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation
in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Bhutto, B. (1989). Daughter of Destiny: An Autobiography, New York: Simon & Schuster.
Bose, S and Jalal, A. (Ed.), (1988). Nationalism, Democracy and Development: State and
Politics in India. New York: Oxford University Press.
Budge, I., & Farlie, D. (1983). Explaining and Predicting Elections: Issue effects and Party
Strategies in Twenty-Three Democracies. Boston: Taylor & Francis.
Campbell, A. G. Gurin., and W. E. Miller. (1954). The Voter Decides. Evanston, IL: Row,
Peterson.
Campbell, A., & Kahn, R. L. (1952). The People Elect a President. Ann Arbor, Mich.:
Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
Campbell, A., Converse, P., Miller, W., Stokes, D. (1960). The American Voter. Chicago:
Chicago University Press.
Caprara, G. V., & Cervone, D. (2000). Personality: Determinants, Dynamics and
Potentials. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Carpini, M. D., Keeter, S. (1996). What Americans know about Politics and why it Matters.
New York: Yale University Press.
Converse, P. E. (1974). Some Priority Variables in Comparative Electoral Research.” pp.
727–45 in Electoral Behavior: A Comparative Handbook, edited by Richard Rose.
New York: Free Press.
Dalton, R. J. (2013). The Apartisan American: Dealignment and Changing Electoral
Politics. SAGE Publications Inc. CQ Press.
Dalton, R., McAllister, I., & Wattenberg, M. (2000). The Consequences of Partisan De-
alignment. In R. Dalton, & M. Wattenberg (Eds.), Parties Without Partisans (pp. 37-
63). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Dassonneville, R., Hooghe, M., & Marien, S. (2014). Loyauté partisane et volatilité lors des
élections locales. In J.-B. Pilet, R. Dassonneville, M. Hooghe, & S. Marien (Eds.),
L‟électeur local. Le comportement électoral au scrutin communal de 2012 (pp. 27-
50). Brussels: Editions de l‟Université de Bruxelles.
Daudt, H. (1961). Floating Voters and the Floating Vote: A Critical Analysis of American
and English Election Studies. Leiden, Holland: Kroese.
289
Dawson, R.E., & Prewitt, K. (1969). Political Socialization. Boston: Little Brown.
Dawson. Dr. C. (2002). Practical Research Methods, A User-friendly Guide to Mastering
Research Techniques and Projects. Oxford: United Kingdom.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper Collins
Publishers.
Duckitt, J. (2001). A Dual-process Cognitive-Motivational Theory of Ideology and
Prejudice. In M. P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology,
Vol. 33, pp. 41-113). San Diego, CA, US: Academic Press.
Duckitt, J., & Sibley, C. G. (2010). Personality, ideology, prejudice, and politics: A dual‐ process motivational model. Journal of personality, 78(6), 1861-1894.
Duverge, M. (1987). Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in Modern
State. London: Methuen & co LTD.
Elcock, H. (1976). Political Behaviour, London: Methuen & Co Ltd.
Esposito, J. L. (1983). Voices of Resurgent Islam. London: Oxford University Press.
Fiorina, M. P. (1981). Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven,
CT: Yale University Press.
Fiorina, M. P. (2005). Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America. New York: Pearson
Longman.
Franklin, M. N., et al. (1992). Electoral Change: Responses to Evolving Social and
Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. New York: Cambridge University
Press.
Franklin, M. N., Mackie, T. T., Valen, H. (2009). Electoral Change: Responses to
Evolving Social and Attitudinal Structures in Western Countries. ECPR Press.
Gehlot, N. S. (1992). Elections and Electoral Administration in India. New Delhi: Deep &
Deep Publication.
Giddens, A. (1998). The Third Way: The Renewal of Social Democracy. Oxford: Polity.
Graham, M. A. (1974). In Search of the Floating Voter: An Analysis of Conflicting Intra-
Election Hypotheses (Doctoral dissertation, Oklahoma State University).
Grare, F. (2001). Political Islam in the Indian Subcontinent the Jamā‘at-i-Islami. Lahore:
Manohar Publishers.
Green, D., Palmquist, B., & Schickler, E. (2002). Partisan Hearts and Minds. New Haven,
CT: Yale University Press.
Hartung, J. P. (2014). A System of Life: Mawdūdī and the Ideologisation of Islam, London:
Hurst.
290
Hasan, M. A. (1982). Sayyid Abul A‘ala Maududi and his Thought. Lahore: Islamic
Publications.
Huckfeldt, R. R., & Sprague, J. (1995). Citizens, Politics and Social Communication:
Information and Influence in an Election Campaign. Cambridge University Press.
Hulman, M. (2013). Partition of India and its Leading Figures (1937-1947), (Bachelor‟s
Diploma Thesis). Masaryk University.
Humeira, I. (2014). Secularizing Islamists? Jama'at-e-Islami and Jama'at-ud-Da'wa in
Urban Pakistan, Chicago: University Press.
Hyman, H. H. (1959). Political Socialization. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.
Inglehart, R. (1990). Culture Shift. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Islam, F. (2014). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: A Political History (1901-1955), Islamabad:
National Institute of Historical and Cultural Research.
Iyengar, S., and Kinder, D. R. (1987). News That Matters: Television and American
Opinion. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Jackson, R. (2011). Maulana Maududi and Political Islam: Authority and the Islamic State.
New York: Rutledge.
Jalal, A. (1995). Democracy and Authoritarianism in South Asia: A Comparative and
Historical Perspective, Lahore: Sang-e-Meel Publications.
Janson, E. (1981). India, Pakistan or Pakhtunistan: The National Movements in the North-
West Frontier Province, 1937-47. Uppsala Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell
International.
Jaros, D. (1973). Socialization to Politics. Basic Concepts in Political Science. Nairobi:
Nelson.
John, O. P., & Srivastava, S. (1999). The Big Five trait taxonomy: History, Measurement,
and Theoretical Perspectives. Handbook of personality: Theory and research,
2(1999), 102-138.
Jones, P. (2003). The Pakistan Peoples Party: Rise to Power. Karachi: Oxford University
Press.
Junn, J. (1991). “Participation and Political Knowledge”. In William Crotty, ed., Political
Participation and American Democracy, Westport: Green-wood Press.
Khan, H. (2009). Constitutional and Political History of Pakistan, (2nd
Ed) Lahore: Oxford
University Press.
Khan, I. A. (1986). Voting Behaviour in Rural NWFP. Peshawar: Pakistan Academy of
Rural Development.
Lachat, R. (2007). A Heterogeneous Electorate, Political Sophistication, Predisposition
Strength, and the Voting Decision Process. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag.
291
Langton, K. P. (1969). Political Socialization, New York: Oxford University Press.
Lau, R. R., & Redlawsk, D. P. (2006). How Voters Decide: Information Processing in
Election Campaigns. Cambridge University Press.
Lazarsfeld, P. F., Berelson, B., Gaudet, H. (1944). The People’s Choice: How the Voter
makes up his Mind in a Presidential Campaign. New York: Columbia University
Press.
Lazarsfeld, P. F., Mcphee, W. N. (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a
Presidential Campaign. Chicago: Chicago University Press.
Lieven, A. (2011). Pakistan: A Hard Country, London: Allen Lane.
Lipset, S. M., & Rokkan, S. (1967). Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National
Perspectives. New York: Free Press.
Marsh, C. (1982). The Survey Method: The Contribution of Surveys to Sociological
Explanation. London: George Allen and Unwin.
Mayer, N., & Tiberj, V. (2004). Do issues matter? Law and order in the 2002 French
Presidential Election. In The French Voter (pp. 33-46). Palgrave Macmillan,
London.
McCrae, R. R., & Costa, P. T. (1990). Personality in Adulthood. New York: Guilford.
McCrae, R. R., & Costa, P. T. (1999). A Five-Factor Theory of Personality. In L. A. Pervin
& O. P. John (Eds.), Handbook of personality: Theory and research (pp. 139–153).
New York: Guilford Press.
McCrae, R. R., Costa Jr, P. T. (1999). A five-factor Theory of Personality. Handbook of
Personality: Theory and Research, 2(1999), 139-153.
Mehmood, S. (2004). Pakistan Political Roots & Development 1947-1999. Karachi: Oxford
University Press.
Miller, W., & Shanks, J. M. (1996). The new American Voter. Cambridge: Harvard
University Press.
Mondak, J. J. (2010). Personality and the Foundations of Political Behavior. Cambridge
University Press.
Muneer, T. (2012). Khan Abdul Wali Khan. Peshawar: Directorate of Culture, Government of
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Nasr, S. V. R. (1996). Mawdudi and the Making of Islamic Revivalism. New York: Oxford
University Press.
Nasr, S. W. R. (1994).The Vanguard of Islamic Revolution: The Jamā‘at-i-Islami of
Pakistan. Berkeley: University of California Press.
292
Nohlen, D., Grotz, F., & Hartmann, C. (Eds.). (2001). Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A
Data Handbook: Volume I: Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia. OUP
Oxford.
Nohlen, D., Grotz, F., Hartmann, C. (2001) Elections in Asia and the Pacific: A Data
Handbook, Oxford University Press.
Pirzada, S.A.S. (2000). The Politics of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Pakistan (1971-77).
Karachi: Oxford University Press.
Powell, G. B. (1982). Contemporary Democracies: Participation, Stability and Violence.
Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Qasim, Z. M. (2002). The Ulema in the Contemporary Islam, Custodian of Change. New
Jersey: Princeton University Publishers.
Ricci, D.M. (1984). The Tragedy of Political Science. Politics, Scholarship, and
Democracy. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Rizvi, Y., (1993). Election 93 Pakistan. Lahore: Shirkat Printing Press.
Rose, R. (1974). The Problem of Party Government. London: MacMillan.
Rosenstone, S.J., & Hansen, J.M. (2003). Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in
America. New York: Longman.
Shah, H. (2013).Voting Behaviour in District Charsadda: A Case Study of General
Elections 2008, Unpublished M.Phil Thesis, Department of Political Science,
University of Peshawar.
Shah, S. W. A. (2007). North West Frontier Province: History and Politics. Islamabad:
National Institute of Historical and Cultural Research.
Stenner, K. (2005). The Authoritarian Dynamic. Cambridge University Press.
Tariqudin, H. (1995). Pakistan ke Siyasi Jamati awr Tehreeke, Lahore: Fiction House.
Trent, J. S., & Friedenberg, R. V. (2004). Political Campaign Communication: Principles
and Practices. New York: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
Ullah, F. (2014). Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: (A Case Study of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in
2008 General Elections), Doctoral dissertation, University of Peshawar, Peshawar.
Ullah, H. K. (2014). Vying for Allah’s Vote; Understanding Islamic Parties, Political
Violence and Extremism in Pakistan, Washington, DC: Georgetown University
Press.
Usman, M., & Ashghar, M. (1988). Pakistan Ki Siaysi Jumate. Sangi Meel Publications:
Lahore.
Verba, S., Schlozman, K. L., and Bradyd, H. E. (1995). Voice and Equality: Civic
Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
293
Waseem, M. (1994). 1993 Elections in Pakistan. Lahore: Vanguard Publishers.
Waseem, M. (2006). Democratization in Pakistan; a Study of the 2002 Elections. New
York: Oxford University Press.
Wattenberg, M. P. (1998). The Decline of American Political Parties. Cambridge: Harvard
University Press.
Wilder, A. R. (1999). The Pakistani Voter: Electoral Politics and Voting Behaviour in the
Punjab. Karachi: Oxford University Press.
Zafar, N., & Hussian, I. (1994). Election 1993; Facts Figures Feats. Islamabad: Modern
Book Depot.
Zaller, J. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge
University.
Ziring, L. (2006). Pakistan in the Twentieth Century: A Political History. (3rd
ed), Karachi:
Oxford University Press.
Websites
Retrieved from http://fafen.org on 3rd
March 2017
Retrieved from www.ecp.gov.pk on 1st October 2018
Retrieved from www.smeda.org on 5th June 2017
294
APPENDIX
Questionnaire
Assalam-o-Alikum
My name is Hassan Shah. I am a Ph. D Scholar in the Department of Political Science,
University of Peshawar. My research topic is, “Voting Behaviour in Pakistan: An
Analysis of Partisan and Floating Voters in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in General
Elections 2013”. I need your cooperation to fill this questionnaire. I will be very grateful to
you.
(Part 1)
Note: Encircle or Tick the correct answer (√)
A. Gender: 1). Male 2). Female
B. Age: 1). 18-23 2). 23-27 3). 27-32 4). 32-37 5). 37-42 6). 42-50 7). Above
50
C. Profession: 1). Business 2). Daily wage 3). Government Servant 4). Non-
government Servant 5). Forming 6). Unemployed 7). House wife 8). Retired 9).
Any other…..
D. Monthly income: 1). Less than 10000 2). 10000-20000 3). 20000-30000 4). 30000-
40000 5). 40000-50000 6). Above 50000 7). Don‟t know
E. Marital Status: 1). Married 2). Unmarried 3). Widow
F. Qualification: 1). Primary 2). Middle 3). Metric 4). Intermediate 5). BA/Bsc
6). Master 7). M.Phil/MS/PhD 8). Illiterate 9). Any Other…………………..
G. Mother Tongue: 1). Pashto 2). Kuwar
H. Union Council……………………
I. District……………………………
(Part 2)
1. Is voting a national duty?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
2. Did you cast vote in 2013 General elections?
1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t Remember
3. Did you satisfy from the party which you voted in 2013 General elections?
295
1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
4. Do you have membership of a political Party?
1) No 2). Yes
5. Vote should be given on the basis of party affiliation.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent
6. Vote should be given to that political party which can eliminate poverty, ignorance
and terrorism and energy crisis.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
7. In your opinion which political party can eliminate poverty, ignorance, terrorism and
energy crisis?
1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League
(N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7).
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tehreek
Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). None of these
8. Are you happy from the present provincial government performance?
1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
9. Have you gone through the manifesto of the party, which you have been supporting?
1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
10. In 2002 General elections which party you voted?
1). MMA 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi
Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi
Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf 10).
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Pakistan Peoples Party 12). Independent
Candidate 13). Did not cast vote 14). Don‟t Remember 15). Any
Other……………..
11. In 2008 General elections which party you voted?
1) MMA 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi
Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda
Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf
10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Pakistan Peoples Party 12).
296
Independent Candidate 13). Did not cast vote 14). Don‟t Remember 15). Any
Other……………..
12. In 2013 general elections which party you voted?
1). MMA 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League (N) 4). Qawmi
Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7). Mutahidda Qaumi
Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-Insaf 10).
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Pakistan Peoples Party 12). Independent
Candidate 13). Did not cast vote 14). Don‟t Remember 15). Any
Other……………..
13. Are you satisfied from your decision to vote in 2013 elections?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
14. Why did you vote to that political party in 2013 general elections?
1). This political party supporting my ideology 2). That party worked a lot for our
area 3). It will bring Islamic system 4). That political party gave jobs to our family
5). That party fighting for the rights of Pakhtuns 6). That party want to change the
system
15. Why did you cast vote in favour of that candidate in 2013 general elections?
1). Candidate belonged to our family 2). He is a religious person 3). He is not a
secular person 4). He is not a corrupt person 5). All the people of our constituency
were voting him 6). He belongs to our party 7). Don‟t Know 9). Any other
reason…….
16. Vote should be given to that political party which protecting the rights of our nation.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
17. If the political party which you have affiliation boycott the elections then which
party you will vote?
1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League
(N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7).
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tehreek
Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). None of these
13). Independent Candidate
18. There should be bi-party system in Pakistan.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
297
19. Did candidates visited to your home during election campaign for canvassing?
1). No 2). No 3). Don‟t know
20. If election will be held tomorrow, which party will you vote?
1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League
(N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7).
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-
Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Independent candidate 12). Any
other……. 13). None of these
21. When you decide about your vote in elections?
1). One month before election 2). One week before 3). One day before 4).On
election day 5). Don‟t know
22. Besides elections campaign meetings of party do you participate in other meetings?
1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t know
23. Are you participating in party meetings during election campaigns?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
24. If the present party leader of your political party is not in the party would you vote
for the party then?
1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t know
25. There should be only religious political parties in Pakistan?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
26. We should change political party according to the circumstances?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
27. All political parties are corrupt.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
28. If your party during elections makes alliance with a party which is against your
ideology then you will give vote to your party?
1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
29. We need to vote that political party which can eliminate the problems of our locality.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
298
30. Did the candidate speech inspire you to vote?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
31. Did you vote to that political party because it is uncorrupt?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
32. Vote should be given on the basis of personality of a candidate?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
33. Vote should be given to that candidate who belonged to our tribe or kin?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
34. Vote should be given to that candidate who has economic and political influence in
the area.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
35. Vote should be given to that candidate who did a lot for our constituency?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
36. Who should be the next prime minister of Pakistan in 2018 general elections?
1). Imran Khan 2). Nawaz Sharif 4). Bilawal Zardari Bhuto 5). Aftab Ahmad Khan
Sherpao 6). Asfandyar Wali Khan 7). Maulana Fazl Ur Rehman, 8). Siraj Ul Haq 9).
Altaf Husain 10). Pervez Musharraf 11). Don‟t Know 12). Any other…………….
37. Vote should be given on the basis of religiosity?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
38. Did voters cast their vote in elections in your locality?
1). No 2). Yes 3). Don‟t know
39. If not! Why?
1). Polling satiations are distant 2). Combined polling stations of Male and female
3). Polling staff supporting a particular political party 4). Candidates are doing
nothing for the area 5). There is rigging 6). Casting vote is un-Islamic 7). Because
there is fighting in polling stations 8). There is no drinking water and washroom in
polling stations 9). Don‟t know 10). Any other reason……………
40. Male and female have equal right to vote.
299
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
41. Female should cast their vote independently.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
42. Which kind of issues and problems faced female voters to cast their vote?
1). Polling stations are distant 2). Male interference in female polling stations 3). No
proper arrangement of covering (Pardah) 4). Male and female combined polling
stations 5). No proper arrangement of drinking water and washroom 6). Ulema’s
verdicts (Fatwa) against women vote avoid them to vote 7). Polling staff was not
cooperating 8). Political parties signed an agreement to forbid women to poll their
vote
43. Vote should be given to that candidate who joins our joy and sorrow?
1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
44. What is the quality of the candidate which you voted in 2013 general elections?
1). Uncorrupt and honest person 2). He did a lot for our area 3). Sincere leader 4).
Religious cleric/Alim 5). Participating in the joy and sorrow of the people 6). He is
a candidate of our party 7). Any other……….
45. Are you satisfied from the elections results?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
46. Vote should be sell on election day.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
47. Did people sell their votes in your locality?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
48. In your opinion what are the most prominent problems of your locality? (you can
tick more than one answer)
1). Unemployment 2). Load shedding 3). Poverty 4). Terrorism 5).corruption 6).
Injustice 7). Poor condition of roads 8). Insecurity 9). Illiteracy 10). Any
other………………………………
49. How much you satisfied from the performance of the candidate of your constituency
to eliminate the above mentioned problems.
300
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
50. Vote should be given to that candidate to whom your head of family support.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
51. Terrorism affected our local politics.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
52. Who influence your vote‟s decision?
1). head of the family 2). Friends 3). Relatives 4). Party 5). Candidate 6). No one
7). Don‟t know
53. In 2002 general elections people voted to Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) because
USA attacked on Afghanistan?
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
54. In your opinion which political party candidate should win the 2018 general
elections from your constituency?
1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League
(N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamaat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7).
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tekhreek-i-
Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). Independent
candidate 13). Don‟t know
55. Vote should be given to that party candidate who provides transport to the voters on
elections day.
1). Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large
extent
56. Vote should be given to an independent candidate rather than party candidate.
1) Not at All 2). No 3). Don‟t Know 4). To some extent 5). To a large extent
57. Which party do you belong to?
1). Pakistan Peoples Party 2). Awami National Party 3). Pakistan Muslim League
(N) 4). Qawmi Watan Party 5). Jamat-i-Islami 6). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (F) 7).
Mutahidda Qaumi Movement 8). Jamiat-e-Ulema-Islam (S) 9). Pakistan Tehreek
Insaf 10). Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party 11). Any other……. 12). None of
these