Voting BehaviorVoting BehaviorPOLS 21: The American Political POLS 21: The American Political

SystemSystem““Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” never lost.”

——John AdamsJohn Adams

Key Influences on Voting Key Influences on Voting BehaviorBehavior

Social identity (e.g., race, gender, Social identity (e.g., race, gender, religion)religion)

Partisan identificationPartisan identification Issue positionsIssue positions Candidate evaluationsCandidate evaluations

Obama and Romney's

War for Women's

VotesWhite Guys vs. Obama

New Obama Ad: Conservative Women Should Vote Democrat

Because Republicans Want to Ban Abortion & Contraception

Obama Sinks to Historic Lows Among Blue-Collar Men

Mitt Romney’s

sinking Latino poll

numbers

Is Obama Taking Black Vote for Granted?

Mitt Romney Is Capturing Zero Percent

Of The Black Vote, According To New Poll

Beyond God and

Guns: Why the

GOP May Lose the

White Working

Class

Examples…Examples…

African-AmericanAfrican-American Working classWorking class Single MomSingle Mom College studentCollege student RepublicanRepublican EnvironmentalistEnvironmentalist CatholicCatholic Senior CitizenSenior Citizen

These identities are often

ACTIVATED by political parties

and their candidates.

Vote Choice for President by Vote Choice for President by GenderGender

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20080

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent voting for Democratic candidate

Men Women

Source: National Election Studies, various years.

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent responding

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."

Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Women, 1952-2008Women, 1952-2008

Trends in Partisan Identification Among Trends in Partisan Identification Among Men, 1952-2008Men, 1952-2008

19

52

19

54

19

56

19

58

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent responding

Democrats

Republicans

Independents

Source: National Election Studies, various years. Major party categories include "leaners."

“Which political party do you thinkwould do a better job?”

ISSUE MEN WOMEN

Handling the nation’s economy R by 8% points D by 10% points

Handling foreign affairs R by 20% points D by 2% points

Making health care more affordable

D by 26% points D by 42% points

Reforming the welfare system R by 11% points D by 17% points

Handling the problem of poverty

D by 23% points D by 34% points

Handling the budget deficit R by 14% points D by 2% points

Handling the problem of pollution

and the environment

D by 32% points D by 33% points

Dealing with the crime problem R by 12% points D by 5% points

Party Strengths Among Male Party Strengths Among Male and Female Votersand Female Voters

Vote for President by Race, 1952-Vote for President by Race, 1952-20082008

19521956

19601964

19681972

19761980

19841988

19921996

20002004

20080

20

40

60

80

100

Percent voting for Democratic candidate

White

Black

Source: National Election Study, various years

African-Americans vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

Did women support Sarah Palin?

Did blacks support Barack Obama?

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

Identity Politics, 2008Identity Politics, 2008

"Oprah

is a

Traito

r!!!"

"For the first time in history we actually have a chance at putting a woman in the white house and Oprah backs the black MAN. She's choosing her race over her gender – hypocrisy at its finest!!”

What happens when social identities collide?

"If the Hispanic voting bloc becomes as committed to the Democrats as

the African-American voting bloc has in the past, why, we're in trouble as a

party and, I think, as a nation."

—Mitt Romney, in a secretly recorded campaign video, speaking with

wealthy donors

Does partisanship bias our political

perceptions?

Partisan IdentificationPartisan Identification

Partisanship is often learned early in Partisanship is often learned early in life from our parents through a process life from our parents through a process of of socializationsocialization..

It is a It is a psychologicalpsychological attachment that is attachment that is both affective and cognitive in nature.both affective and cognitive in nature.

It acts as a filter, or It acts as a filter, or perceptual screenperceptual screen—a framework through which we —a framework through which we experience and understand politics.experience and understand politics.

Which issues matter most?Which issues matter most?

"There are many important issues in this presidential campaign. When it comes to deciding for whom you will vote for president, which one of the following is the single most important issue in deciding for whom you will vote? The economy. Social issues and values. Social Security and Medicare. Health care. The federal deficit. Foreign policy and the Middle East. Terrorism." If "all": "Well, if you had to choose the most important issue, which would you choose?"

The economy 46%Social issues and values 15Social Security and Medicare 12Health care 10The federal deficit 7Foreign policy and the Middle East 6Terrorism 1None/Other (vol.) 1Unsure 1

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Sept. 26-30, 2012. N=832 likely voters nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.4.

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Growth rate o f rea l per capita GNP in the 2nd and 3rd quarters o f the election year

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

Incumbent share of the two-party vo te

1932

1936

1980

1920

1908

1992

Presidential Voting Presidential Voting and Economic Growthand Economic Growth

Retrospective voting on the

economy provides an

information short-cut.

2008

Retrospective (economic results)Retrospective (economic results)

vs. vs.

Prospective (policy content)Prospective (policy content)

What is the causal What is the causal mechanism?mechanism?

Perceived Economic Perceived Economic Conditions, 1980-2008Conditions, 1980-2008

Source: National Election Study, various years.

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent responding "gotten worse"

Condition of nation's economy Respondent's financial situation

Perceptions of the economy mattered in 1992, more than reality.

Candidate EvaluationsCandidate Evaluations

In the In the traitstraits they they convey (e.g., honesty, convey (e.g., honesty, trustworthiness, trustworthiness, intelligence);intelligence);

In the In the feelingsfeelings they they evoke (e.g., anger, evoke (e.g., anger, hope, pride, fear);hope, pride, fear);

There is at least one enduring truth in the study of There is at least one enduring truth in the study of voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming voting behavior—citizens vote in overwhelming numbers for the presidential candidate they numbers for the presidential candidate they likelike the the most. Candidates are important in at least two waysmost. Candidates are important in at least two ways——

1960 Kennedy-Nixon 1960 Kennedy-Nixon DebateDebate

The people who watched the debate on TV felt that Kennedy had won, while those who listened on the radio thought that Nixon had won.