Voters’ Attitudes Toward Social Security Reform HART RESEARCH P e t e r D ASSOTESCIA Key findings from surveys among 1,407 2004 presidential election voters,

Voters’ Attitudes Toward Voters’ Attitudes Toward Social Security ReformSocial Security Reform

HARTHARTRESEARCHRESEARCH

P e t e r DP e t e r D

AA SS SS OO TT EE SSCC II AA

Key findings from surveys among 1,407 2004 presidential election voters,Conducted January 6 – 11, 2005

for

AFL-CIOAFL-CIO

Voters’ Attitudes toward Social Security Reform/Hart Research for AFL-CIOAFL-CIO

Top Priorities For Congress And The President

Top Priorities For Congress And The President

33%30%

28%

21%19%

12%

6%

One/two issues that should be Congress’/President’s highest priorities

Health care Jobs/

economy SocialSecurity

EducationBudgetdeficit

Reducetaxes

Lawsuitreform

Age 18-49:20%

Age 50/over:

37%


Dwindling Support For Private AccountsDwindling Support

For Private Accounts

31%37%

45% 45% 44% 46%

64%59%

52% 52% 53%49%

May 2000 Sept 2000 Mar 2001 July 2002 Dec 2004 Jan 2005

Support Oppose

Do you support or oppose a plan in which people could invest some of their Social Security contributions in the stock market?

Trend source: ABC News/Washington Post surveys


Voters Assess The Financial Condition Of Social SecurityVoters Assess The Financial Condition Of Social Security

Looking ahead, how would you describe the financial condition of Social Security?

6%

26%

39%

26%

Basically secure

Faces major

troubles

Faces a crisis

Assessment has improved slightly since 1998, when 27% said SS was secure/ faced minor troubles.

Faces minor

troubles


Why Is Social Security In Trouble?Why Is Social Security In Trouble?

2%

11%

17%

25%

32%

48%

Top one/two reason Social Security might face financial problems in future

Government has used trust fund for other purposes

Large number of Baby Boomers retiring soon

People living longer after retiring

Bush tax cuts reduced revenue/increased deficit

Social Security payroll taxes not keeping up with costs

Benefits to retireesare too high


34%

61%

69%

26%

SS will pay same as now/somewhat lower when I retireSS will pay much lower/no benefits when I retire

Age 18-49

Working Americans’ Confidence In Their Own Benefits

Working Americans’ Confidence In Their Own Benefits

Age 50/over


Why Is Social Security Valuable?Why Is Social Security Valuable?

8%

14%

18%

24%

34%

47%

Top one/two reason Social Security is valuable and important

Benefit people earn by paying in, not a handout

Safety net that keeps retirees out of poverty

Guaranteed income that can never be taken away

Promise that must be kept

Foundation of a secure retirement

Social contract that all Americans support


Top Goals For Social SecurityTop Goals For Social Security

Top Priorities for Congress in Dealing with Social Security

Provide benefits people paid for

Strengthen Social Security

Modernize Social Security

Reform Social Security

Preserve Social Security

Leave Social Security alone

Privatize Social Security

31%

30%

25%

23%

17%

14%

11%


Declining Bush Approval On Social Security

Declining Bush Approval On Social Security

49%

31%

38%

55%

Approve Disapprove

March 2001

Source: Gallup, ABC News/Washington Post

January 2005

20% of Bush voters lack confidence in Bush on SS issue.


15%

Stronglyfavor13%

39%

46%

Somewhatfavor

Somewhatoppose

Stronglyoppose

32%

Not sure

Initial Support For Bush PlanInitial Support For Bush Plan

Knowledge of Plan

Great dealFair amountLittle/none

17%40%43%


6%

Informed Support For Bush PlanInformed Support For Bush Plan

Stronglyfavor12%

40%

54%

Somewhatfavor

Somewhatoppose

Stronglyoppose

35%

Not sure

Main Provisions of Bush Plan

Workers age 55 and younger allowed to place one-third of payroll taxes in voluntary private investment accounts.

Guaranteed monthly benefit for future retirees reduced in steps by

30% to 50%, depending on whether

they choose private account.

No change in benefits for people over age 55.

Long-term SS funding shortfall eliminated, but government will borrow $2 trillion to fund transition costs.


Variations In Support For Bush PlanVariations In Support For Bush Plan

All voters

MenWomen

Age 18 to 34Age 35 to 49Age 50 to 64Age 65/over

WhitesAfrican AmericansHispanics

Support40%

46%35%

47%43%37%32%

43%20%40%

Oppose54%

50%57%

48%53%58%59%

51%74%55%

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

When I retire, SS benefits will be:

Same as now/ somewhat lower

Much lower/none

SS is a priority

Support

12%32%74%

40%

46%

36%

Oppose

85%60%20%

57%

48%

58%


Opportunity To Win Back Key GroupsOpportunity To Win Back Key Groups

37%

52%

44%

56%

38%

56%

40%

58%

Kerry vote % % opposing Bush SS plan

White women Non-collegewhite women

White seniors

Non-collegeeducated whites


Political Impact Of Voting For Bush PlanPolitical Impact Of

Voting For Bush PlanIf my member of Congress voted for

Bush’s Social Security plan:

21%

41%

33%

I would be MORE likely to vote for him/her in next election

It would make no

difference to me

either way

I would be LESS

likely to vote for him/her in next election


Wait For Better Plan Wait For Better Plan

20%

64%

Should Congress act this year?

Congress should wait and develop a different plan for Social

Security

Congress should pass Bush plan


Options To Strengthen Retirement Security Options To Strengthen Retirement Security

32%

34%

50%

56%

54%

Strongly favor Somewhat favor

Tax-free retirement savings options, separate from SS

Have Congress repay money it took from SS trust fund

Repeal Bush tax cuts for wealthiest 1%, give to SS

Maintain inheritance tax for $3 million/more, give to SS

Payroll tax on first $190,000, not $90,000 as is now

82%

73%

65%

58%

60%


Options To Strengthen Retirement SecurityOptions To Strengthen Retirement Security

11%

14%

18%

Strongly favor Somewhat favor

Reduce benefits for future retirees w/over $50K

Small reduction in COLAfor benefits

Raise eligibility age for full benefits to 70

39%

26%

37%


24%29%

20%

37%

Responses To “Crisis” ClaimsResponses To “Crisis” Claims

37%

55%

SUPPORTERS say that Congress should pass the Bush plan because the current Social Security system is unsustainable, and we must take action now to avert a crisis later.

Agree withsupporters

Agree withopponents

Agree withsupporters

Agree withopponents

41%

53%THOSE OPPOSED to the plan say that Social Security faces problems but not a crisis, and making modest changes will preserve benefits for future retirees--we do not need the radical changes proposed by Bush.

THOSE OPPOSED to the plan agree that we must address Social Security's problems, but say that this plan makes those problems even worse by diverting trillions of dollars from the trust fund and weakening the system.

+12 +18


Private Accounts Vs. Benefit CutsPrivate Accounts Vs. Benefit Cuts

SUPPORTERS [of Bush plan] say that private investment accounts will be a good deal for younger workers because they provide a higher rate of return on payroll taxes and let people control their own money.

THOSE OPPOSED to the plan say that Social Security is designed to provide a guaranteed monthly benefit you can count on--there are places for risk in retirement savings, but Social Security is not one of them.

+14

SUPPORTERS say Social Security is underfunded by $10 trillion and will never make good on its promises. There is simply no alternative to reducing benefits in the future, and the Bush plan makes up for those cuts by providing private investment accounts.

THOSE OPPOSED to the plan say that people deserve to receive the Social Security benefits they paid for. Congress should repay the trust fund and strengthen Social Security so it can pay the promised benefits, not cut benefits.

+25


Concerns about Bush PlanConcerns about Bush Plan

Benefit cuts and risky accounts

$2 trillion in borrowing

Corruption and waste


Impact Of Benefit Cut MessagesImpact Of Benefit Cut Messages

Many seniors would end up in poverty if their private investment account did not do well, and they would have to be taken care of by the taxpayers

The private investment accounts are supposed to be voluntary, but the plan cuts your benefits by 30% even if you do not choose a private account, and that is not fair

The average retiree would lose a total of $134,000 in benefits under this plan if they live for 20 after they retire

For every dollar you have in your investment account when you retire, the plan would deduct about 50 cents from your retirement benefits – this is a bad deal

Private accounts undermine the basic purpose of Social Security, which is to provide a guaranteed, risk-free base of retirement income

Persuadable voters who say each is a very serious concern

75%

74%

72%

64%

46%

Cutting survivor benefits (69%) and disability benefits (66%) are also serious concerns.


Impact Of Deficit Cost MessagesImpact Of Deficit Cost Messages

The government would have to borrow $2 trillion, mainly from countries such as China and Japan, to fund this plan. The health of Social Security should not depend on the willingness of foreign countries to lend us money

Under the Bush plan, the Social Security trust fund actually would run out of money 14 years sooner than is now expected. It makes Social Security's funding problems worse, not better

76%

62%


Debating Deficit Impact:“It is irresponsible to add $2 trillion in new debt with the deficit already so high – Social Security needs solid funding, not more IOUs” (66% agree).

“It is all right to borrow money in the short-term to fund this plan, because it solves the much larger long-term fiscal problem of Social Security being underfunded” (21% agree).


Impact Of Corruption/Waste MessagesImpact Of Corruption/Waste Messages

The government will decide which Wall Street firms get to manage the private investment accounts and make billions of dollars in profits. Those decisions will be based on political influence, not what is best for average people

Having the federal government administer 125 million individual accounts will create more bureaucracy and administrative costs that will reduce retirement benefits

The administrative costs of private accounts and fees for the big Wall Street companies that manage them will reduce earnings on the private accounts by about 20%

75%

55%

39%



39%

46%

34%

61%

Favor Oppose

Final Verdict On Bush PlanFinal Verdict On Bush Plan

Initial View Final View

-27

-7

Non-collegewomen

Age 18-34

SS in crisis

69%

58%

57%

Oppose


Conclusions:Play Offense, Not Defense

Conclusions:Play Offense, Not Defense

Voters come to the debate already skeptical about privatization – especially those voters who care most about Social Security – and there are clear opportunities to strengthen and deepen their doubts.

It is important to take the offensive and define this plan in the public mind now, not wait to respond to the coming Bush PR offensive.


Conclusions:Framing the Debate

Conclusions:Framing the Debate

DON’T debate this at the level of philosophy -- “ownership society” vs. “social insurance.”

DO focus on the real, concrete harm to Americans’ retirement security done by the Bush plan.

DON’T get caught up in debating the size of the problem.

DO focus on how Bush plan makes problem worse and weakens Social Security.

DON’T focus all your attention on “risk” of accounts.

DO tell Americans about huge benefit cuts in plan.


Conclusions: Focusing Our Message

Conclusions: Focusing Our Message

The Bush plan undermines retirement security by cutting guaranteed benefits 30% to 50%, even for those who don’t choose an account. Risky privatization accounts won’t make up the difference. Working people should get the benefits they paid for.


Conclusions:Focusing Our Message


The Bush plan would hurt our economy and pass huge new bills onto future generations of workers by borrowing $2 trillion from China, Japan, and other foreign nations. Social Security needs solid funding, not more IOUs.




Social Security does face problems, but the Bush plan makes the problem worse and weakens Social Security by diverting trillions of dollars from the trust fund.

We can strengthen Social Security without slashing benefits:

Require Congress to pay back the money it has diverted from Social Security and create new opportunities for Americans to have tax-free savings for their retirement in addition to Social Security.


Conclusions:The Bush Plan is a Fraud

Conclusions:The Bush Plan is a Fraud

Be aggressive in telling Americans that Bush is selling them a bill of goods:

It’s not voluntary – benefits cut either wayDon’t get to keep all your gains – 50% taxCannot pass on to heirs – must annuitizeDon’t ‘control your own money’ – politicians will

pick firms to control the accounts, a process corrupted by politics

Documents

Voters’ Attitudes Toward Social Security Reform HART RESEARCH P e t e r D ASSOTESCIA Key findings from surveys among 1,407 2004 presidential election voters,