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VOTE GOALS AND TARGETING

Tom BonierClarity Campaign Labs

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INTRODUCTIONS

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You

Norms

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FOLLOWING THE LAWELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM

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FOLLOWING THE LAWWWW.AFJ.ORG

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Presenter:

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Tom BonierPartner/Co-founderClarity Campaign Labs

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OBJECTIVETo provide an understanding of what targeting and vote goals are, why they are helpful, and how they can be implemented

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AGENDAWhat is targeting and why is it helpful?How to calculate a vote goalHow to use targeting to reach your goal– Persuasion– GOTV

Using a vote goal to build a programCase studies

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• Makes the most of limited resources• Provides for accountability (Field

math!)• Charts out a clear path to victory

HOW IS TARGETING USEFUL?

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TARGETING – HOW TO BEST USE LIMITED RESOURCES

TURNOUT

HISTORY

PRESUMED SUPPORT

LOW UNKNOWN HIGH

HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION

HIGH TURNOUT BASE

SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT

PERSUASIONSPORADIC

TURNOUT BASE

LOW x x x

NEW x x NEW BASE

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How many people will vote?• Historical turnout• Unique factors to

this year• Who is in my

district?

What % do I need to win?• How many

candidates are on the ballot?

• How confident am I in my turnout #s?

• many votes to win?

HOW MANY VOTES TO WIN?{majority of people who vote}

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VOTE GOAL FORMULA

TurnoutRegistration

= Turnout Rate

1. Pick 3 similar elections.2. Find Turnout Rate

3. Apply turnout to current registrationTurnout Rate x Registered Voters = Expected Vote4. Find win # (50% + 1, 52% to be safe)Expected Vote x 50% + 1 = win number.

RegistrationRegistrationTurnout Turnout

+ +( ) / 3

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EXPECTED VOTE: CASE STUDY

1996 and 2008 turnout dips compared to other Presidential years: could this be explained by the absence of a Senate contest on the ballot?

Credit: Luke Peterson, NCEC

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Turnout % by Office: Montgomery County, MD

AG% Comp% Gov% Pres% Sen%Don’t Let t

he Perfect

Be the Enemy of t

he

Good

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Don’t Let the Perfect Be the Enemy of the

GoodVote Goal is used for planning…• Which voters need engagement• What your voter contact plan

should look like• How much your plan is likely to

cost• When in doubt, round up!• Gut check!

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• Geographic targeting• Supporter IDs• Modeled support• Poll-based demographic targeting

TARGETING - SUPPORT

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• Undecided IDs• Soft supporter IDs• Ticket-splitter models• Cross-pressured voters• EIP

TARGETING - PERSUASION

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TARGETING – HOW TO BEST USE LIMITED RESOURCES

TURNOUT

HISTORY

PRESUMED SUPPORT

LOW UNKNOWN HIGH

HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION

HIGH TURNOUT BASE

SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT

PERSUASIONSPORADIC

TURNOUT BASE

LOW x x x

NEW x x NEW BASE

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How many votes do you already have?• Likely voting core supporters, no

persuasion or GOTV needed

VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGNStep 1 – Base Vote

Step 2 – Vote deficitHow many more votes do you need?• Vote goal minus Base vote

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How many votes can you gain through increased base turnout?• Infrequent voting core supporters• Voter registration potential• Gut check – how realistic is this goal in the

context of past precedent?• How far short does your base vote

expansion goal leave you of erasing your deficit?

VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGNStep 3 – Base Vote Expansion

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What share of the persuadable voters must you win in order to reach your goal?• Likely voting persuadable voters• Set an ID goal; try to convert and ID as

many supporters among your persuasion, at a minimum, as your vote deficit number

• Gut check – how realistic is this goal in the context of past precedent, polling, and general common sense (ie, is your goal to win 90% of swing voters?)

VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGNStep 4 – Persuasion

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• What does your program look like to reach your GOTV goal? What will it cost?

• What does your program look like to reach your persuasion goal? What will it cost?

• Do these allocations make sense? Is one more efficient than the other?

VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGNStep 5 – Budgeting Persuasion vs

GOTV

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• IDing your win number

• What does your program look like to reach your persuasion goal? What will it cost?

• Do these allocations make sense? Is one more efficient than the other?

VOTE GOALS: PROGRAM DESIGNStep 6 – Implementation

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Universe Description Strategy Total Voters Projected Support Projected Turnout Votes

High Turnout Base 0

Sporadic Turnout Base 0

Low Turnout Base 0

High Turnout Persuasion 0

Sporadic Turnout Persuasion 0

Low Turnout Persuasion 0

High Turnout GOP 0

Sporadic Turnout GOP 0

Low Turnout GOP 0

Total 0

Your Vote Goal

Vote Deficit 0

VOTE GOAL TEMPLATE

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An anti-immigration politician won an election by less than 1%.

A group that does issue advocacy/electoral work notices this result, and discovers that Hispanic voters comprised only 7% of the district’s electorate, but a much larger share of the eligible voters.

CASE STUDYUnder-represented Mobilization

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Action plan:- Take subset of the non-voting Hispanic

universe (easily canvassable doors)- Knock each door 3 times- Goal: 50% turnout from target universe

Result: Hispanic voter share increases by 3%, more than enough to make the difference

CASE STUDYUnder-represented Mobilization

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QUESTIONS?

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WWW.NEWORGANIZING.COM/TOOLBOX

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Interdependent Leadership(aka the Snowflake Model)

https://act.neworganizing.com/donate/NOD_Donate_08-2012/

HOW CAN I SUPPORT?