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Heathrow Expansion PRELIMINARY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REPORT
© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Volume 3, Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases
Appendices
Appendix 9.1 Current baseline
Appendix 9.2 Construction
Appendix 9.3 Air transport
Appendix 9.4 Surface access
Appendix 9.5 Airport buildings and ground operations
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
APPENDIX 9.1
CURRENT BASELINE
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
CONTENTS
1. Data collection and methodology 1
2. Glossary of terms 7
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 9.1.1: Data sources, modelling and assumptions behind the 2017 baseline GHG emissions assessment 2 Table 9.1.2: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG current baseline 7
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
1. DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY
1.1.1 Baseline data is collected and reported in a way that is consistent with Airport
Carbon Accreditation (ACA) and largely aligned to the greenhouse gas (GHG)
Protocol. Reporting is based on operations over which Heathrow has full control.
This is aligned with the GHG Protocol ‘Operational Control’ approach, under which
a company accounts for 100% of emissions from operations over which it or one of
its subsidiaries has operational control. The baseline covers the reporting calendar
year ending 31 December 2017.
1.1.2 The GHG emissions assessments completed for sub-aspects other than air
transport included consideration of GHGs additional to carbon dioxide. As
determined by the Kyoto Protocol these GHGs include seven gases: carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur
hexafluoride and nitrogen trifluoride. To provide consistent reporting of these
gases, each is weighted by its global warming potential and converted to a carbon
dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in accordance with GHG reporting protocol.
1.1.3 For air transport the quantification is of CO2 only as this is consistent with the basis
on which the UK reports its aviation emissions, and is consistent with advice from
the Committee on Climate Change (CCC)1. This ensures the quantification can be
compared to UK carbon targets and budgets on a like for like basis.
1.1.4 Table 9.1.1 presents the details of the data gathered, models used and
assumptions underpinning the 2017 baseline GHG emissions assessment. The
emissions sources are split by sub-aspect:
1. Air transport
2. Surface access
3. Airport buildings and ground operations.
1.1.5 Construction GHG emissions are not included in the current baseline assessment
as Heathrow do not currently report on supply chain construction GHG emissions.
1.1.6 It is noted that the scope of the PEIR assessment is broader than the scope of
Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint in the case of the water and waste
components of the airport buildings and ground operations sub-aspect. The PEIR
assessment includes operations over which Heathrow does not have direct
1 Note that the approach for air travel is different to that taken in Heathrow’s annual reporting. The annual reporting follows the UK Government’s ‘Environmental Reporting Guidelines’ (June 2013) and presents all emissions in CO2e. However, Heathrow’s annual reporting is for the purposes of its sustainability commitments and to track its performance, and is not concerned with the effects of development proposals for the purposes of a DCO (which must be comparable against UK reporting).
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
control, such as operations by third-party businesses. As Heathrow’s annual
carbon footprint adopts the GHG Protocol ‘Operational Control’ approach it does
not report these third-party operations.
1.1.7 The GHG emission factors selected in Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint are in
line with government guidance for company reporting, for example adopting
factors published by BEIS which allow direct comparison with companies reporting
using the same factors. The PEIR assessment adopts GHG emission factors
selected to represent reasonable worst-case assumptions. Therefore, some of the
GHG emission factors selected to model future effects result in greater GHG
emission estimates than would result from using current baseline assumptions.
For example, the GHG emission factors selected for many categories of waste are
larger than equivalent BEIS 2017 GHG emission factors used in Heathrow’s
annual carbon footprint.
1.1.8 The GHG emissions associated with waste and water are small components of the
overall footprint. Therefore, these differences in scope and modelling assumptions
between current baseline and the PEIR assessment is negligible when the GHG
emissions from all sub-aspects are considered in total.
Table 9.1.1: Data sources, modelling and assumptions behind the 2017 baseline GHG emissions assessment
Emission
source
Calculation of emissions
Air transport
LTO (landing
and take-off)
Fuel consumption by mode
Modes included are auxiliary power unit (APU), take-off, initial climb (to 450m), climb out
(450-1000m), approach, taxi in, taxi out, hold, reverse thrust and landing roll.
Fuel consumption for each mode is calculated by combining data on aircraft movements,
engines, APUs and time in mode.
CO2 emissions
Fuel consumption is converted into carbon emissions using BEIS 2017 GHG emission
factors.
Surface access
Passenger
surface
access
Distance
The surface access mode choice model LASAM (London Airports Surface Access Model)
has been used to calculate total distances travelled by mode:
The distance travelled on public transport models is output from the public transport
network model within LASAM. The distance is split into distance travelled by the main
mode and feed up distance travelled by underground and national rail when applicable for
each time period. The last transit mode used to access the Airport is the one specified as
the main mode. For example, for a trip originating from Oxford station using national rail to
access Paddington station and then changing to Heathrow Express two distances are
calculated. That is the distance travelled by the main mode (Heathrow Express) and the
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Emission
source
Calculation of emissions
feed up distance travelled by national rail. The Charter Coach mode was not explicitly
coded in the transport network model. To calculate the distance travelled for this mode,
the distance travelled by bus or coach was used.
With regards to the highway modes the distance travelled is sourced from the Heathrow
Highway Assignment Surface Access Model (HHASAM).
The calculated distance travelled is representative for the year 2016 (the latest complete
year at the time of modelling).
Demand
Processed 2016 CAA (Civil Aviation Authority) data is used as the basis of demand in the
calculation of distance travelled by air passengers. Data from 2016 was used as this was
the latest available at the time of modelling. The processed 2016 CAA data is a matrix of
air passenger demand from each LASAM zone across the UK to each Heathrow terminal
for each mode. The CAA passenger survey is a UK-wide voluntary survey of air
passengers which includes origin or destination and mode of surface access.
The 2016 CAA base year matrix has a total of 47.3 million passengers. In late 2017 a
discrepancy between non-transfer totals exhibited in the 2016 CAA data and that of
Heathrow’s 2016 BOSS (Business Objective Search System) data was raised. BOSS is
Heathrow’s own flight information database, with more accurate (and larger) numbers of
passengers than CAA, but with no information on surface access mode. To take a worst-
case approach, the decision was taken to scale the CAA-derived LASAM base matrix (the
origin or destination and mode information) to BOSS data throughputs by terminal (the
passenger numbers). This process to scale air passenger demand to BOSS throughputs
is now standard practice for Heathrow’s air passenger demand modelling.
Following the calculation of the distance travelled using 2016 CAA demand data, the
distance travelled figures are scaled up by 20.1% to represent 2017 BOSS data air
passenger throughputs.
Person kilometres travelled
Total kilometres travelled for public transport modes are quantified as person kilometres.
These are calculated by multiplying the demand by the distance travelled matrices for
each mode and time period.
Vehicle kilometres travelled
The Time Period Model (TPM) calculates daily vehicle throughputs for taxis and private
vehicles. These are then converted to annual vehicle trips by applying the specific ratio for
each mode.
The vehicle kilometres travelled are calculated by multiplying the annual vehicle trips by
the distance travelled matrices for each mode and time period.
GHG emissions
Kilometres travelled (either vehicle or person kilometre) was multiplied by the appropriate
BEIS conversion factor.
Heathrow
colleagues
surface
access
Distance travelled
In HEM-CM, the distance travelled varied depending on whether the mode is a PT (public
transport), a Highway or an active mode. PT includes Bus and Coaches, Underground
and National Rail (for instance Heathrow Express and Heathrow Connect), whereas Car
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Emission
source
Calculation of emissions
Driver, Car Passenger, Motorcycle, Taxi/Minicabs and Work Bus are listed as Highway
modes. Active modes include Bicycle and Walking.
The mode reported represents the main mode Heathrow employees use to access the
Airport. This is defined as the mode covering the greatest distance of their commute as
opposed to the mode that the traveller spends most of their time on.
The distance provided represents the network distance within HEM-CM. For each home
zone to Heathrow terminal combination, the distance for Car, PT, Bicycle and Walk modes
was given. As no significant difference in the distance between the different time periods
was observed, the distance reported during IP (inter-peak) was used.
The final distance by mode is the product of the corresponding demand and distance
travelled and is representative for the year 2017.
Demand
The expanded 2017 Heathrow Employment survey data is used as the basis of demand in
the calculation of distance travelled by the Heathrow employees. The survey data was
expanded using rim weights so that the employee survey results are as representative as
possible at the total level and provide a profile for the whole of the Airport.
In addition, the demand used is the demand on a typical weekday; it is inaccurate to
assume that all of the approximate 72,700 employees report to work every day. Therefore,
attendance factors per job type were computed and applied to the survey data.
Person kilometres travelled
Total kilometres travelled for PT modes are quantified as person kilometres. These are
calculated by multiplying the demand on a typical weekday by the distance travelled
matrices for each mode and time period.
Vehicle kilometres travelled
Total kilometres travelled for Highway modes are quantified as vehicle kilometres. These
are calculated by multiplying the annual vehicle trips by the distance travelled matrices for
each mode and time period.
GHG emissions
Kilometres travelled (either vehicle or person kilometre) was multiplied by the appropriate
BEIS conversion factor.
Operational
vehicles and
equipment
Fuel consumption
Data was obtained on the volume of fuel (ultra-low sulphur gas oil, diesel, petrol or LPG)
used by month, by controller location and by fleet owner.
GHG emissions
Litres of fuel consumed was multiplied by the appropriate BEIS conversion factor.
Separation of third-party consumption
Fuel consumed by third parties is a Scope 3 emission so was separated out from the
Scope 1 fuel consumption emissions.
Business
travel
Distance travelled
Data on distance travelled was obtained from:
1) The Travel Provider Carbon Report (flights, UK rail)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Emission
source
Calculation of emissions
2) PSA expense report (UK rail, UK bus and coach, taxis, overseas rail, overseas bus
and coach)
3) BAA P11D Mileage Report (personal car).
GHG emissions
Kilometres travelled (either vehicle or person kilometre) was multiplied by the appropriate
BEIS conversion factor.
Airport buildings and ground operations
Electricity
consumption
Location-based emissions
Data was obtained on the electricity consumption at Heathrow (in kWh), the Business
Support Centre, the pod test track and the Heathrow Express depot.
Market-based emissions
The electricity consumed was multiplied by:
1) a supplier specific GHG emission factor for the period January to March 2017
2) a Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGO) specific GHG emission factor for
the period April to December 2017. Note that the supplier specific GHG emissions
factor was applied to the electricity consumption at the Heathrow Express depot for
this period also as it was not covered by the REGO
GHG emissions
The electricity consumed (in kWh) was multiplied by 2017 BEIS conversion factor
Separation of third-party consumption
Electricity consumed by third parties (including the consumption associated with pre
conditioned air and fixed electrical ground power and the Heathrow Express depot) is a
Scope 3 emission so was separated out from the Scope 2 electricity emissions.
Fuel
consumption
Fuel consumption
For natural gas, monthly meter readings were converted into energy (kWh) by applying a
standard correction factor for temperature and pressure and by applying a calorific factor.
Data gaps due to meter failures are filled by estimating consumption using an
extrapolation method.
Gas oil consumption was calculated using year start reading, year end reading and
delivery records.
Biomass consumption was calculated using year start inventory, year end inventory and
delivery records
GHG emissions
The quantity of fuel consumed (litres or kWh) was multiplied by the appropriate 2017 BEIS
conversion factor.
Separation of third-party consumption
Fuel consumed by third parties is a Scope 3 emission so was separated out from the
Scope 1 fuel consumption emissions.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Emission
source
Calculation of emissions
Water Water quantities
The volume of water consumed (in m3) was obtained from supplier invoices.
GHG emissions
The quantity of water was multiplied by the appropriate 2017 BEIS conversion factor.
Refrigerants Refrigerant quantities
Data was obtained on the quantity of refrigerant top ups from one contractor. The data
was estimated to cover only 30% of the total estate so was extrapolated to cover 100% of
the estate.
GHG emissions
The quantity of each refrigerant was multiplied by the appropriate 2017 BEIS conversion
factor.
Waste Waste quantities
Data was obtained on the quantity of waste by mass (kg), broken down by waste type and
destination (recycling, landfill or incineration). Each type of waste was categorised using
the BEIS waste categories.
GHG emissions
The quantity of waste was multiplied the appropriate 2017 BEIS conversion factor.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.1 – Current baseline
Appendix 9.1-7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Table 9.1.2: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG current baseline
Term Definition
ACA Airport Carbon Accreditation
APU Auxiliary power unit
BEIS Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
BOSS Business Objective Search System
CAA Civil Aviation Authority
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent
GHG Greenhouse gases
GWP Global warming potential
HEM-CM Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model
HHASAM Heathrow Highway Assignment and Surface Access Model
IP Inter-peak
LASAM London Airports Surface Access Model
LTO Landing and take-off
PEIR Preliminary Environmental Information Report
PT Public transport
REGO Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin
TPM Time Period Model
UK United Kingdom
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
APPENDIX 9.2
CONSTRUCTION
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
CONTENTS
1. Introduction 1
2. Scope 2
3. Quantification methodology 4
3.1 GHG emissions quantification 4
4. Assumptions and limitations 9
5. Quantification results 11
5.2 Total construction emissions 11
5.3 Construction transport 13
6. Glossary of terms 15
7. Bibliography 16
Annex A: Standard normalisation factors 1
Annex B: Construction GHG factors 1
Manufacture and production of construction materials 1
Construction site works 7
Annex C: Construction GHG emissions results table 1
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 9.2.1: Construction GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment 2 Table 9.2.2: Detailed methodology 4 Table 9.2.3: Assumptions for assessment of construction GHG emissions 9 Table 9.2.4: Annual GHG emissions from construction 12 Table 9.2.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from construction 15 Table 9.2.6: Standard normalisation factors: Main Buildings 1 Table 9.2.7: Standard normalisation factors: Ancillary Buildings 1 Table 9.2.8: Standard normalisation factors: Surfaces 2 Table 9.2.9: Standard normalisation factors: Road Structure 2 Table 9.2.10: Standard normalisation factors: Excavation 3 Table 9.2.11: Standard normalisation factors: Waste 3 Table 9.2.12: Standard normalisation factors: River 3
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.2.13: Standard normalisation factors: Tunnel Fit-Out 3 Table 9.2.14: Standard normalisation factors: Building Fit-Out 4 Table 9.2.15: Construction material GHG emission factors: Cladding, Roofing, Fit-Out/MEP and Road Surfaces 1 Table 9.2.16: Construction material GHG emission factors: Concrete 1 Table 9.2.17: Construction material GHG emission factors: Steel 4 Table 9.2.18: Transport – materials to site GHG emission factors 5 Table 9.2.19: Transport – construction waste GHG emission factors 5 Table 9.2.20: Mass Haul GHG emission factors 6 Table 9.2.21: Transport – construction workers GHG emission factors 6 Table 9.2.22: Construction plant activities GHG emission factors: diesel powered plant 7 Table 9.2.23: Construction plant activities GHG emission factors: electric powered plant 7 Table 9.2.24: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 1 Table 9.2.25: Construction materials GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 2
TABLE OF GRAPHICS
Graphic 9.2.1: Scope of construction GHG emissions adopted by the assessment 2 Graphic 9.2.2: Total GHG emissions from construction 12 Graphic 9.2.3: GHG emissions from construction by component (DCO Project without mitigation) 13 Graphic 9.2.4: GHG emissions from construction transport by activity 14
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 This appendix presents the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for
construction of the DCO Project. GHG emissions have been quantified for material
use, transport and on-site plant activities. It details the:
1. Scope of the quantification
2. Methodology followed
3. Assumptions and limitations
4. Results.
1.1.2 This appendix presents GHG emissions for the period 2022 to 2050 for one
modelled scenario, the DCO Project without mitigation, a three runway scenario,
without environmental measures other than those which are part of the physical
infrastructure of the preferred masterplan.
1.1.3 Note that, unlike the other carbon sub-aspects, no future baseline scenario is
presented for construction GHG emissions, as all currently consented
development is scheduled for completion before 2022.
1.1.4 A further scenario, the DCO Project with mitigation, as required by the Airports
National Policy Statement (ANPS), has not been reported quantitively for
construction for the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR).
Environmental measures are identified and presented in Chapter 9: Carbon and
greenhouse gases for comment and feedback, although at this stage of the DCO
Project it has not been possible to assess their effects. The DCO Project with
mitigation scenario including the full suite of environmental measures will therefore
be fully assessed and reported in the Environmental Statement (ES).
1.1.5 This Appendix does not provide an assessment of the likely significant effects from
construction GHG emissions. A preliminary assessment of likely significant effects
aggregating GHG emissions from all sub-aspects is included in Chapter 9:
Carbon and greenhouse gases.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. SCOPE
2.1.1 The scope of GHG emissions considered by the construction assessment is
described in this section.
2.1.2 Construction GHG emissions have been considered from a ‘cradle-to-completed-
construction’ perspective. This is the sum of GHG emissions covering extraction of
raw and primary materials, their manufacture and refinement into products and
construction materials, associated transport and supply logistics, and construction
site works.
2.1.3 Graphic 9.2.1 illustrates the different construction phases included within the GHG
assessment. Table 9.2.1 lists out the activities scoped in for the GHG emissions
assessment within each of the key construction phases. Land use change has not
been included the PEIR GHG assessment but will be part of the ES. Land use
change emissions are not expected to have a material contribution to the overall
construction footprint due to the urban nature of the land within the draft DCO
limits.
Graphic 9.2.1: Scope of construction GHG emissions adopted by the assessment
Table 9.2.1: Construction GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment
Activity Effect
The manufacture and
production of
construction material
GHG emissions associated with the manufacturing of construction materials
(for example, concrete and steel). GHG emissions will be associated with the
extraction or mining of resources and any primary and secondary processing
or manufacturing. The creation of new assets and changes to existing assets
will result in have corresponding indirect GHG emissions.
Construction material
transport
and worker
transportation and
logistics
GHG emissions associated with vehicles used for the delivery of construction
materials to site, removal of construction waste and construction staff travel.
These activities will likely use vehicles with internal combustion engines and
therefore lead to GHG emissions.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Activity Effect
Construction site
works
GHG emissions associated with construction site works relate to the fuel and
electricity used by on-site plant and equipment during construction.
Construction related activities include fuel used to power heavy machinery like
diggers and tracked excavators, or electricity to provide lighting and heating for
construction site cabins. There will also be the need for temporary worker
accommodation, lighting and power which will lead to GHG emissions
associated with energy and water consumption.
Land use change (to
be assessed in the ES)
The majority of land use change will take place during the excavation and
construction phase of the DCO Project, where existing land use types (such as
grassland) may be permanently lost to allow for the DCO Project. The land use
change quantification will capture GHG emissions associated with the following
impacts:
1. Where existing ‘carbon sinks’, such as grassland or forested land, are
lost to allow for the DCO Project, stored carbon will be released
2. New green spaces, provided as part of landscaping and biodiversity
mitigation, will act to sequester carbon.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
3. QUANTIFICATION METHODOLOGY
3.1 GHG emissions quantification
3.1.1 This section describes the method used to quantify GHG emissions associated
with construction (‘construction GHG emissions’) of the DCO Project.
3.1.2 A life cycle assessment (LCA) approach has been adopted in line with the
principles set out in BS EN 15978:2011 (November 2011) and PAS 2080:2016
(May 2016), capturing both direct and indirect emissions associated with
construction. A ‘cradle to completed construction’ GHG emissions quantification
has been undertaken for the DCO Project.
3.1.3 The quantification of construction GHG emissions is based on DCO Project data.
Where this information has not been available, industry-wide GHG emissions
assessment guidance information, such as Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors (RICS) Whole Life Carbon Assessment for the Built Environment
(RICS, 2017) has been used to inform assumptions on type and specification of
construction materials.
3.1.4 Table 9.2.2 provides more detail into the methodology by project parameter.
Table 9.2.2: Detailed methodology
Project parameter Methodology description
Manufacture and production of construction materials
GHG emissions associated with the manufacturing and production of construction
materials are referred to as embodied emissions. These typically include the effect
associated with the extraction of raw materials, their transportation to plants or
factories and any primary and secondary manufacturing processes necessary to
produce a finished product (for example, reinforced concrete blocks). GHG
emissions that capture these stages of manufacturing and production are referred to
as ‘cradle-to-gate’ emissions.
GHG emissions have been derived from projections of asset footprints (m2)
requirements for each construction material. The weight (tonnes) or volume (m3) of
construction material has been estimated by applying normalisation factors (for
example weight (t) of concrete per volume (m3) of concrete required for a terminal
building (t/m3). The complete list of normalisation factors is presented in Appendix
9.2: Carbon and greenhouse gases – Construction, Annex A.
The construction GHG quantification is based on assets (for example runway,
taxiways terminals, stands and roads) which reflect the current stage in the
evolution of the DCO Project’s design. Although the list of assets that need to be
built are fixed, the phasing (start and completion of construction) is subject to
change. Narrative text describing the latest construction phasing was used to profile
the overall construction GHG quantification.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Methodology description
GHG emission factors have been sourced from the Inventory of Carbon and Energy
(ICE) database (January 2011, 2019) for the majority of construction materials.
Appendix 9.2: Annex B presents the GHG emissions factors used in the
assessment.
In line with adopting a reasonable worst-case scenario, improvements in the
manufacturing processes for steel and concrete (which result in decreased GHG
emissions) have been modelled over the assessment period. Consequently,
different GHG emissions factors have been used each year of the assessment.
Wet Lean Concrete (WLC) and Pavement Quality Concrete (PQC) have been
specified for runways, taxiways, aircraft stands and other hardstanding areas. Either
reinforced concrete C40/50, 25% cement replacement1 or reinforced concrete
C32/40, 25% cement replacement has been used for all other assets, including
tunnels and terminal buildings. Efficiency improvements (62% improvement by 2050
based on 1990 levels) in the manufacturing of concrete have been applied over the
assessment period in line with the Mineral Products Association (MPA) Cement
(February 2013). Refer to Table 9.2.16 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B for the complete
list of concrete GHG emissions factors applied in the construction GHG
quantification.
The Boston Consulting Group and Steel Institute (June 2013) has modelled three
efficiency improvement projections in steel manufacturing (base case, reasonable
case and stretch case). The reasonable case projection applies a 6% efficiency
improvement in steel manufacturing between 2010 and 2050. Table 9.2.17 of
Appendix 9.2: Annex B presents the complete list of steel related GHG emissions
factors applied.
Equation 1 summarises how the construction GHG emissions have been derived:
Equation 1: Construction emissions
QSR x NF x GHGF = CO2e
where
QSR = Quantity surveyor rate
NF = Normalisation factor
GHGF = GHG emissions factor
CO2e = GHG emissions
1 Concrete is typically made up of water, aggregates and cement and/or cement replacement. The proportions of each dictates the concrete strength and use.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Methodology description
Construction
material transport
The number of vehicle trips delivering construction material to site annually and
distances travelled by the construction delivery vehicles are based on the logistics
strategy. Equation 2 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for the transport
of construction material to site:
Equation 2: Material transport emissions
NoV x Dist x GHGF = CO2e
where
NoV = Number of vehicle movements
Dist = average trip distance
GHGF = GHG emissions factor
CO2e = GHG emissions
GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (July 2018) and are shown in
Table 9.2.18 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B. The proportion of vehicles using petrol,
diesel or electricity has been sourced from the Department for Transport (DfT) (May
2018).
Construction
waste
The transport and disposal of construction waste from site is based on construction
waste forecasts of construction waste diverted from landfill and the quantities of
construction waste disposed of at landfill.
Equation 3 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for construction waste:
Equation 3: Construction waste emissions
CW x GHGF = CO2e
where
CW = Quantity of construction waste
GHGF = GHG emissions factor (direct and indirect emissions)
CO2e = GHG emissions
GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (July 2018) and are shown in
Table 9.2.19 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B.
Mass haul
The quantification of GHG emissions associated with mass haul is based on
Heathrow analysis and includes the transport of waste arising from cut/fill
operations to form the expanded operational Airport and for off-site components,
demolition of existing buildings and infrastructure, and on-site borrow pits.
Equation 4 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for site haul:
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Methodology description
Equation 4: Mass haul emissions
NoV x Dist x GHGF = CO2e
where
NoV = Number of vehicle movements
Dist = average trip distance
GHGF = GHG emissions factor (direct and indirect emissions)
CO2e = GHG emissions
GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (July 2018) and are shown in
Table 9.2.20 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B.
Construction
worker
transportation
The quantification of construction worker transportation related GHG emissions is
based on the logistics strategy and provides number of workers required for
construction.
Equation 5 summarises how GHG emissions associated with transport and supply
related construction activity have been assessed:
Equation 5: Construction worker transportation emissions
NC x Dist x GHGF = CO2e
where
NC = Number of construction workers
Dist = average trip distance
GHGF = GHG emissions factor (direct and indirect emissions)
CO2e = GHG emissions
GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (August 2017) and are
shown in Table 9.2.21 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B.
Construction site
works
GHG emissions associated with construction site works relate to the fuel and
electricity used by on-site plant and equipment during construction. Construction
related activities include fuel used to power heavy machinery like diggers and
tracked excavators, or electricity to provide lighting and heating for construction site
cabins.
GHG emissions associated with construction site works have been derived from
monthly plant and equipment capital cost projections. The total number of plant and
equipment on-site per month is estimated based upon this preliminary data.
GHG emissions factors have been sourced from BEIS (January 2018) and align
with the Electricity Market Reform (July 2013) and are shown in Table 9.2.22 and
Table 9.2.23 of Appendix 9.2: Annex B.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-8 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Methodology description
Equation 6 summarises the GHG emissions quantification for diesel and electrically
powered plant and equipment respectively:
Equation 6: Site works emissions
Diesel plant emissions: NoPE x DFpD x WDpM x GHGF = CO2e
Electric plant emissions: NoPE x kW x HrspM x GHGF = CO2e
where
NoPE = Number of plant equipment
DFpD = diesel fuel use per day
kW = Average kilowatt power rating of electric plant equipment
WDpM = working days per month
HrspM = average working hours per month
GHGF = GHG emissions factor (direct and indirect emissions)
CO2e = GHG emissions
Land use change
(to be assessed at
ES)
The land use change quantification will capture GHG emissions associated with the
following impacts:
1. Where existing ‘carbon sinks’, such as grassland or forested land, are lost
to allow for the DCO Project, stored carbon will be released
2. New green spaces, provided as part of landscaping and biodiversity
mitigation, will act to sequester carbon.
Existing land uses will be mapped and respective areas (m2) assessed under the
current baseline (2017) conditions. Changes to the existing land use because of the
DCO Project will be assessed and resulting GHG emissions. For example, where
previously existing grassland is permanently lost and replaced by a ‘built’ asset,
such as a road or building, the carbon emissions sequestrated (kgCO2/m2) over the
grassland’s lifetime are assumed to be released to the atmosphere. Alternatively,
where new green space is added the potential carbon sequestration rate
(kgCO2/m2/year) of the land type will be assessed over the assessment period
(2022-2050).
GHG emissions factors are sourced from Ostle, N.J et al. (2009).
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-9 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
4. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS
4.1.1 Table 9.2.3 presents the assumptions related to the assessment of the DCO
Project without mitigation scenario.
Table 9.2.3: Assumptions for assessment of construction GHG emissions
Project
parameter
Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the DCO Project without
mitigation scenario
Construction
material
selection
In the absence of detailed information on the type and specification of construction materials
at this early stage of design, the following assumptions have been applied to the
quantification:
1. Concrete surfacing: Pavement Quality Concrete and Wet Lean Concrete
2. Reinforced concrete in buildings: RC 32/40, 20% cement replacement
3. Reinforced concrete for: RC 32/40, 20% cement replacement
4. Steel: UK typical, EU 59% recycled content
5. Cladding: Aluminium
6. Roofing: Asphalt
7. Road surfaces: mix of Aggregate and Asphalt
These are considered to align with standard industry practice and guidance, such as RICS
Whole Life Carbon Assessment for the Built Environment (RICS, 2017). As the design
progresses and more detailed information on the type and specification of construction
materials is provided, the reasonable worst case for each construction material will be
refined.
Vehicle use Transport of construction material carbon emissions assume the use of a rigid heavy goods
vehicle (HGV) with load capacity of 17 tonnes and greater. This is considered to be
representative of a large construction project with large quantities of construction material
movements.
Transport of construction workforce to site assumes travel by local bus and private car.
Mass haul assumes all movements use an articulated truck with load capacity of 33 tonnes or
greater.
Transport
distance
Assumptions for transportation distances have been informed by Heathrow analysis
undertaken when developing the logistics strategy. For the purposes of GHG emissions
quantification these assumptions are considered to be a reasonable worst case.
76% of construction material is assumed to be transported to site from the North-West of
England (350 km). 24% of construction material is assumed to be transported from the South-
East of England (130 km).
40% of construction workforce are assumed to travel by public transport (assumed as bus at
this stage of assessment). 60% of construction workforce are assumed to travel by private
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-10 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project
parameter
Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the DCO Project without
mitigation scenario
car with an occupancy of 1.5 passengers per car. Distance travelled to site has been
assumed as 20 km for all construction workforce.
On-site plant
use
The following assumptions have been used to assess the impact of on-site construction plant
activities on GHG emissions.
1. The diesel and electric plant equipment mix over the duration of construction is
initially assumed as a 10% electric / 90% diesel split and changes to 40% electric /
60% diesel by 2026
2. Electricity consumption rate of electric plant equipment assumed as 237.4 kW/day
3. Diesel plant equipment assumed an average energy consumption rate of 200
litres/day.
These assumptions on plant are based on the professional judgement of the DCO Project’s
delivery team and are considered to represent industry standard practice and incorporate
conservative future expected efficiencies on vehicle use mix.
UK grid
electricity
The quantification has assumed that the carbon intensity of UK grid electricity will reduce in
line with Government grid decarbonisation projections. This is considered as a reasonable
worst case as it is in line with conservative future efficiencies observed from Government and
policy trends to 2050.
4.1.2 There are a number of limitations to the GHG assessment pertaining to the
following:
1. As the DCO Project design is continually developing and evolving, the results
of the GHG quantification is likely to change. The GHG quantification will be
updated in order to reflect changes to design
2. At this stage of design development, detailed and accurate data is limited in
some areas. For example:
a. Due to lack of accurate and detailed information on construction materials
specification for each design element, assumptions on the type of
construction material used is based on best available information and
professional judgement
b. In the absence of information on construction plant equipment, assumptions
on energy consumption have been made based on professional judgement.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-11 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5. QUANTIFICATION RESULTS
5.1.1 The results of the GHG quantification (DCO Project without mitigation scenario)
are presented in summary form for the scope set out in Section 2 as:
1. Total construction GHG emissions from all activities over the construction
phase
2. Construction transport GHG emissions over the construction phase. These
results are referred to in the surface access assessment in Appendix 9.4.
5.1.2 The results are also tabulated to present total annual emissions for core and
additional assessment years.
5.1.3 Appendix 9.2: Annex C contains detailed results of the total construction GHG
emissions by activity as well as a detailed breakdown of the GHG emissions
associated with each construction material.
5.1.4 The DCO Project with mitigation scenario has not been reported quantitively for
construction for PEIR. At this stage the environmental measures have not been
designed and developed in sufficient detail to allow quantification of their beneficial
effects. The DCO Project with mitigation scenario will be fully assessed and
reported in the final ES.
5.2 Total construction emissions
5.2.1 Graphic 9.2.2 shows the total GHG emissions for the DCO Project without
mitigation scenario.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-12 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.2.2: Total GHG emissions from construction
5.2.2 Table 9.2.4 shows the annual GHG emissions from all construction activities for
key milestone years as described in Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases,
Section 9.4, including the year of maximum GHG emissions.
Table 9.2.4: Annual GHG emissions from construction
Scenario
Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Base
year
First year of
assessment
Year of
maximum
release of
first
phase of
capacity
First full
year of
third
runway
operations
Year of
minimum
ANPS
capacity
Year of
maximum
capacity
Year of
maximum
GHG
emissions
2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)
DCO Project
without
mitigation
0.14 0.48 0.54 0.14 0.05 0.00 0.64
(2023)
5.2.3 The cumulative GHG emissions for the modelled scenario from 2022 to 2050
result in 3.70 MtCO2e.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-13 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5.2.4 Graphic 9.2.3 shows the total GHG emissions associated with each component of
construction for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. This shows a peak in
construction material usage in 2024.
Graphic 9.2.3: GHG emissions from construction by component (DCO Project without mitigation)
5.2.5 Appendix 9.2: Annex C includes the complete set of total GHG emissions
associated with construction results for the DCO Project without mitigation
scenario.
5.3 Construction transport
1. Graphic 9.2.4 shows the GHG emissions associated with construction
transport activities for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. These
results are referred to in the surface access assessment in Appendix 9.4.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-14 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.2.4: GHG emissions from construction transport by activity
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-15 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
6. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Table 9.2.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from construction
Term Definition
ATM Air transport movement
BEIS Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
Carbon Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent
DfT Department for Transport
EIA Environmental impact assessment
EU European Union
GHG Greenhouse gases
HGV Heavy goods vehicle
kgCO2e Kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent
LCA Life-cycle assessment
MPA Mineral Products Association
MtCO2 Million tonnes of carbon dioxide
PEIR Preliminary Environmental Information Report
PQC Pavement Quality Concrete
RICS Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
UK United Kingdom
WebTAG Web-based Transport Analysis Guidance
WLC Wet Lean Concrete
WTT Well-to-tank (referring to emissions during the fuel supply chain)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-16 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Full text reference In-text reference
BEIS. (August 2017). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2017. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2017 [Accessed 13 February 2019].
BEIS, August 2017
BEIS. (January 2018). Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671187/Updated_energy_and_emissions_projections_2017.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
BEIA, January 2018
BEIS. (July 2018). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2018. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2018 [Accessed 13 February 2019].
BEIS, July 2018
BS EN 15978:2011. (November 2011). Sustainability of construction works. Assessment of environmental performance of buildings. Calculation method. [online]. Available at: www.bsigroup.com [Accessed 13 February 2019].
BS EN 15978:2011
Climate Change Act. (2008). [online]. Available at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/pdfs/ukpga_20080027_en.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Climate Change Act 2008
Department for Transport (DfT). (May 2018). Transport Analysis Guidance, WebTAG A1.3.9: Proportions of vehicle kilometres by fuel type. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag [Accessed 13 February 2019].
DfT, May 2018
EIA Regulations (2017). The Town and Country Planning (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 2017. [online]. Available at: http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2017/571/pdfs/uksi_20170571_en.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
EIA Regulations 2017
Electricity Market Reform. (July 2013). Electricity Market Reform – ensuring electricity security of supply and promoting investment in low-carbon generation. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/225981/emr_delivery_plan_ia.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Electricity Market Reform, July 2013
Green Construction Board. (March 2013). Low Carbon Routemap for the UK Built Environment. [online]. Available at: https://www.greenconstructionboard.org/otherdocs/Routemap%20final%20report%2005032013.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Green Construction Board, March 2013
ICE database (2019). University of Bath Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE) Version 3.0.
ICE database, 2019
ICE database. (January 2011). University of Bath Inventory of Carbon and Energy (ICE) Version 2.0. [online]. Available at: http://www.circularecology.com/embodied-energy-and-carbon-
ICE database, January 2011
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-17 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Full text reference In-text reference
footprint-database.html#.XGb15Oj7RaR [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Mineral Products Association (MPA) Cement. (February 2013). UK Cement Industry 2050 Greenhouse Gas Strategy. [online]. Available at: https://cement.mineralproducts.org/documents/MPA_Cement_2050_Strategy.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Mineral Products Association (MPA) Cement, February 2013
Ostle, N.J., Levy, P.E. Evans, C.D. and Smith, P. (2009). UK land use and soil carbon sequestration. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre. Land Use Policy, 26(1), pp. S274-S283.
Ostle, N.J et al., 2009
PAS 2080:2016. (May 2016). Carbon management in infrastructure. [online]. Available at: www.bsigroup.com [Accessed 13 February 2019].
PAS 2080:2016
RICS. (November 2017). Whole life carbon assessment for the built environment - Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. [online]. Available at: https://www.rics.org/globalassets/rics-website/media/news/whole-life-carbon-assessment-for-the--built-environment-november-2017.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
RICS, November 2017
The Boston Consulting Group and Steel Institute VDEh. (June 2013). Steel’s Contribution to a Low-Carbon Europe 2050. Technical and Economic Analysis of the sector’s CO2 Abatement Potential. [online]. Available at: https://www.stahl-online.de/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Schlussbericht-Studie-Low-carbon-Europe-2050_-Mai-20131.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
The Boston Consulting Group and Steel Institute VDEh., June 2013
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
ANNEX A: STANDARD NORMALISATION FACTORS
Table 9.2.6: Standard normalisation factors: Main Buildings
Facilities
Concrete Steel sections
& beams Cladding Roofing
m3/m2 GFA t/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA
MAIN BUILDINGS
Terminals 1.149 0.212 0.101 0.274
Piers 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Multi Story Car Parks
0.617 0.046 0.038 0.274
Table 9.2.7: Standard normalisation factors: Ancillary Buildings
Facilities
Concrete Steel sections & beams
Cladding Roofing
m3/m2 GFA t/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA m2/m2 GFA
ANCILLARY BUILDINGS
Buildings 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Car Rental 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Cargo 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Depot 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Fire station 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Hanger 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Hotel 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Industrial building
1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Maintenance Base
1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Office 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Police station 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Sanitation Building
1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Workshop 1.475 0.084 0.475 0.274
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-A2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.2.8: Standard normalisation factors: Surfaces
Facilities
Concrete External Works
m3/m2 GFA m3/m2 GFA
SURFACES
Stands 0.5 -
Taxiways 0.6 -
Runways 1.2 -
Car Parks 0.35 -
Other pavements/ landscape - 0.35
Table 9.2.9: Standard normalisation factors: Road Structure
Depth Density Cross section
m t/m3 m
ROAD STRUCTURE
Type 2 capping layer
0.35 2.15 -
Type 1 subbase 0.15 2.2 -
Macadam; base course
0.12 2.2 -
Macadam; binder course
0.06 2.58 -
Macadam; wearing course
0.03 2.6 -
D4MU - - 31.7
S4MU - - 22.6
S2MU - - 15.3
S3MU - - 19
S1MU - - 11.7
D2AU - - 17.1
D3AU - - 24.4
S2AU - - 17.1
D1AU - - 7.3
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-A3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.2.10: Standard normalisation factors: Excavation
Tunnel
m3/m3
EXCAVATION Excavation & disposal, including contaminated
1.61
Table 9.2.11: Standard normalisation factors: Waste
m3/100m2 t/m2
WASTE
Demolition Waste (Civil Engineering)
61.7 0.192
Commercial Offices - 0.092
Industrial Buildings - 0.144
Leisure - 0.042
Table 9.2.12: Standard normalisation factors: River
Cross section
m2
RIVER
Excavation 80
Concrete works 44
Table 9.2.13: Standard normalisation factors: Tunnel Fit-Out
m3/m3
TUNNEL FIT-OUT
Track
0.2 Overhead electric conductor rails
Ventilation
Drainage systems
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2-A4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.2.14: Standard normalisation factors: Building Fit-Out
M&E finishes Concrete Cladding Roofing
m2/m2 t/m3 t/m2 t/m2
BUILDING FIT-OUT
3 2.5 0.05 0.1
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
ANNEX B: CONSTRUCTION GHG EMISSIONS FACTORS
Manufacture and production of construction materials
Table 9.2.15: Construction material GHG emission factors: Cladding, Roofing, Fit-Out/MEP and Road Surfaces
Construction material GHG emissions factor Unit Data source Assumptions
Cladding 9.16 kgCO2e/kg ICE database
v2.0 (2011)
Aluminium assumed
for all cladding
Roofing 0.058 kgCO2e/kg ICE database
v3.0 (2019)
Asphalt assumed for
all roofing
Fit-Out/MEP 80 kgCO2e/m2 Based on
professional
judgement
Representative of
Grade A office space.
Applied to all Fit-
Out/MEP
Road Surfaces 0.2084 kgCO2e/kg ICE database
v2.0 (2011)
Mix of aggregates and
asphalt assumed for
road surfaces
Table 9.2.16: Construction material GHG emission factors: Concrete
Construction material Year GHG emissions factor Unit Source Assumptions
Concrete surfacing 2018 0.25 tCO2e/m3 ICE
database
v3.0
(2019)
GHG
emissions
factors used
for runways,
stands,
taxiways and
other
hardstanding
areas
2019 0.25
2020 0.25
2021 0.24
2022 0.24
2023 0.24
2024 0.23
2025 0.23
2026 0.23
2027 0.22
2028 0.22
2029 0.22
2030 0.21
2031 0.21
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Construction material Year GHG emissions factor Unit Source Assumptions
2032 0.20
2033 0.20
2034 0.20
2035 0.19
2036 0.19
2037 0.19
2038 0.18
2039 0.18
2040 0.18
2041 0.17
2042 0.17
2043 0.16
2044 0.16
2045 0.16
2046 0.15
2047 0.15
2048 0.15
2049 0.14
2050 0.14
Concrete Structures:
Reinforced Concrete,
C40/50, 25% cement
replacement
2018 0.14 kgCO2e/kg ICE
database
v3.0
(2019)
GHG
emissions
factors used
for river
diversions,
tunnels and
other major
civil structures
2019 0.14
2020 0.14
2021 0.14
2022 0.13
2023 0.13
2024 0.13
2025 0.13
2026 0.13
2027 0.12
2028 0.12
2029 0.12
2030 0.12
2031 0.12
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Construction material Year GHG emissions factor Unit Source Assumptions
2032 0.11
2033 0.11
2034 0.11
2035 0.11
2036 0.11
2037 0.10
2038 0.10
2039 0.10
2040 0.10
2041 0.10
2042 0.09
2043 0.09
2044 0.09
2045 0.09
2046 0.08
2047 0.08
2048 0.08
2049 0.08
2050 0.08
Concrete Structures:
Reinforced Concrete,
C32/40, 25% cement
replacement
2018 0.12 kgCO2e/kg ICE
database
v3.0
(2019)
GHG
emissions
factors used
for buildings,
utilities and
other minor
civil structures
2019 0.12
2020 0.12
2021 0.11
2022 0.11
2023 0.11
2024 0.11
2025 0.11
2026 0.11
2027 0.11
2028 0.11
2029 0.10
2030 0.10
2031 0.10
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Construction material Year GHG emissions factor Unit Source Assumptions
2032 0.10
2033 0.10
2034 0.10
2035 0.09
2036 0.09
2037 0.09
2038 0.09
2039 0.09
2040 0.08
2041 0.08
2042 0.08
2043 0.08
2044 0.08
2045 0.08
2046 0.07
2047 0.07
2048 0.07
2049 0.07
2050 0.07
Table 9.2.17: Construction material GHG emissions factors: Steel
Construction
material
Year GHG factor Unit Source
Steel
2018 1,263 kgCO2/tonne
The European
Steel Association
2019 1,260
2020 1,256
2021 1,252
2022 1,249
2023 1,245
2024 1,241
2025 1,238
2026 1,234
2027 1,230
2028 1,226
2029 1,223
2030 1,219
2031 1,215
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Construction
material
Year GHG factor Unit Source
2032 1,212
2033 1,208
2034 1,204
2035 1,201
2036 1,197
2037 1,193
2038 1,189
2039 1,186
2040 1,182
2041 1,178
2042 1,175
2043 1,171
2044 1,167
2045 1,164
2046 1,160
2047 1,156
2048 1,152
2049 1,149
2050 1,145
Construction material, worker transportation and logistics
Table 9.2.18: Transport – materials to site GHG emissions factors
Vehicle GHG emissions factor Unit Source
Artic HGV (> 33
tonnes) / average
loaded vehicle
0.944 kgCO2e/km
BEIS UK Government GHG Conversion
Factors for Company Reporting, 2018
Diesel Van: Class II
(1.74 to 3.5 tonnes) 0.275 kgCO2e/km
Table 9.2.19: Transport – construction waste GHG emissions factors
GHG emissions
factor
Unit Source Assumptions
Average
construction
– Recovery
(Open-loop)
1.37 kgCO2e/tonne
BEIS UK Government
GHG Conversion
Factors for Company
Reporting, 2018
Average
construction
- Landfill 92.7 kgCO2e/tonne
The GHG emissions factor is based on
the average of the GHG emissions
factors for each construction material
has been used.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.2.20: Mass Haul GHG emissions factors
Vehicle
GHG
emissions
factor
Unit Source
Artic HGV (> 33
tonnes) / 100% loaded
vehicle
0.944 kgCO2e/km
BEIS UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for
Company Reporting, 2018
Table 9.2.21: Transport – construction workers GHG emissions factors
Mode Year
GHG emissions factor
Unit Source Assumptions
Bus (Local bus) 2017 to 2050
0.15184 kgCO2e per passenger.km
BEIS UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for Company Reporting, 2017
Assumes no improvement / shift to electric from 2017
Car
2017 0.227842
kgCO2e per km
Based on year-specific WebTAG proportion of electric, diesel, petrol.
2018 0.22757
2019 0.227277
2020 0.22679
2021 0.22607
2022 0.225221
2023 0.224192
2024 0.222977
2025 0.221721
2026 0.220439
2027 0.219131
2028 0.217752
2029 0.21632
2030 0.214837
2031 0.213427
2032 0.212096
2033 0.210851
2034 0.209667
2035 0.208526
2036 0.20745
2037 0.206388
2038 0.205357
2039 0.204325
2040 0.203282
2041 0.202023
2042 0.200902
2043 0.199904
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Mode Year
GHG emissions factor
Unit Source Assumptions
2044 0.199012
2045 0.198205
2046 0.197477
2047 0.196834
2048 0.196267
2049 0.195769
2050 0.195323
Construction site works
Table 9.2.22: Construction plant activities GHG emissions factors: diesel powered plant
Mode
GHG
emissions
factor
Unit Source
Assumptions
Gas Oil (including
WTT) 3.60
kgCO2e/litre
of diesel
BEIS UK Government
GHG Conversion Factors
for Company Reporting,
2018
Assumes no efficiency
improvement to diesel
powered plants
Table 9.2.23: Construction plant activities GHG emissions factors: electric powered plant
Year
GHG
emissions
factor
Unit Source
Assumptions
2017 213.4
gCO2e/kWh
BEIS Updated Energy and
Emissions Projections,
2017
Assumes electrically
powered plant reduce in
line with UK Government
grid decarbonisation
factors
2018 205.0
2019 194.7
2020 180.9
2021 170.9
2022 147.8
2023 144.3
2024 150.1
2025 140.8
2026 114.2
2027 119.4
2028 108.4
2029 96.1
2030 104.2
2031 95.5
2032 77.7
2033 74.5
2034 66.5
2035 55.0
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.B8 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Year
GHG
emissions
factor
Unit Source
Assumptions
2036 52.0
Emissions intensity
interpolated between 2036
and 2049
2037 50.0
2038 47.0
2039 44.0
2040 42.0
2041 39.0
2042 36.0
2043 34.0
2044 31.0
2045 29.0
2046 26.0
2047 23.0
2048 21.0
2049 18.0
2050 18.0
Electricity Market Reform
– ensuring electricity
security of supply and
promoting investment in
low-carbon generation,
July 2013
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.C1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
ANNEX C: CONSTRUCTION GHG EMISSIONS RESULTS TABLE
Table 9.2.24: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year
Construction
material
Construction plant activities
Transport - materials
to site
Transport -
construction worker
s
Transport - mass haul
& demolition
waste
Transport - constructio
n waste TOTAL
2022 0.218 0.156 0.098 0.008 0.00173 0.00050 0.482
2023 0.351 0.178 0.097 0.014 0.00173 0.00081 0.643
2024 0.352 0.129 0.076 0.014 0.00173 0.00081 0.573
2025 0.342 0.092 0.091 0.011 0.00173 0.00078 0.539
2026 0.209 0.049 0.065 0.008 0.00043 0.00048 0.331
2027 0.085 0.031 0.017 0.004 0.00000 0.00019 0.137
2028 0.028 0.013 0.004 0.002 0.00000 0.00006 0.047
2029 0.019 0.008 0.003 0.001 0.00001 0.00004 0.032
2030 0.030 0.011 0.004 0.001 0.00001 0.00007 0.047
2031 0.032 0.012 0.004 0.001 0.00001 0.00007 0.050
2032 0.039 0.016 0.006 0.002 0.00001 0.00009 0.063
2033 0.038 0.018 0.010 0.002 0.00001 0.00009 0.069
2034 0.035 0.022 0.009 0.001 0.00000 0.00008 0.068
2035 0.026 0.020 0.006 0.001 0.00000 0.00006 0.054
2036 0.034 0.024 0.007 0.002 0.00000 0.00008 0.067
2037 0.043 0.023 0.007 0.002 0.00000 0.00010 0.074
2038 0.044 0.025 0.007 0.001 0.00002 0.00010 0.077
2039 0.023 0.016 0.003 0.002 0.00002 0.00005 0.044
2040 0.005 0.009 0.003 0.001 0.00002 0.00001 0.018
2041 0.007 0.011 0.003 0.002 0.00002 0.00002 0.023
2042 0.017 0.013 0.006 0.003 0.00000 0.00004 0.038
2043 0.016 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.00000 0.00004 0.041
2044 0.014 0.014 0.006 0.002 0.00000 0.00003 0.037
2045 0.018 0.010 0.007 0.002 0.00000 0.00004 0.037
2046 0.019 0.007 0.007 0.003 0.00000 0.00004 0.036
2047 0.019 0.007 0.007 0.004 0.00000 0.00004 0.036
2048 0.018 0.007 0.007 0.003 0.00000 0.00004 0.035
2049 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.00000 0.00001 0.006
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.C2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year
Construction
material
Construction plant activities
Transport - materials
to site
Transport -
construction worker
s
Transport - mass haul
& demolition
waste
Transport - constructio
n waste TOTAL
2050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.00000 0.00000 0.000
Cumulative Total
2.08 0.94 0.57 0.10 0.00746 0.00478 3.70
Table 9.2.25: Construction materials GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (tCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year
Construction Materials
Concrete Steel Cladding Roofing Fit-Out Road Surface TOTAL
2022 0.024 0.034 0.012 0.0000 0.005 0.143 0.218
2023 0.059 0.046 0.019 0.0000 0.015 0.212 0.351
2024 0.129 0.030 0.027 0.0002 0.021 0.145 0.352
2025 0.129 0.065 0.024 0.0002 0.026 0.099 0.342
2026 0.072 0.069 0.007 0.0001 0.017 0.044 0.209
2027 0.014 0.036 0.032 0.0003 0.002 0.000 0.085
2028 0.007 0.013 0.004 0.0003 0.004 0.000 0.028
2029 0.007 0.007 0.002 0.0001 0.003 0.000 0.019
2030 0.013 0.010 0.003 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.030
2031 0.013 0.011 0.004 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.032
2032 0.015 0.011 0.005 0.0001 0.005 0.004 0.039
2033 0.012 0.006 0.006 0.0001 0.006 0.008 0.038
2034 0.009 0.004 0.012 0.0001 0.004 0.005 0.035
2035 0.007 0.004 0.010 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.026
2036 0.006 0.008 0.013 0.0001 0.006 0.000 0.034
2037 0.016 0.008 0.013 0.0001 0.006 0.000 0.043
2038 0.017 0.008 0.013 0.0001 0.006 0.000 0.044
2039 0.008 0.005 0.005 0.0001 0.004 0.000 0.023
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.2 – Construction
Appendix 9.2.C3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (tCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year
Construction Materials
Concrete Steel Cladding Roofing Fit-Out Road Surface TOTAL
2040 0.000 0.002 0.001 0.0001 0.000 0.002 0.005
2041 0.000 0.003 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.002 0.007
2042 0.007 0.003 0.004 0.0000 0.001 0.002 0.017
2043 0.011 0.002 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.002 0.016
2044 0.011 0.001 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.002 0.014
2045 0.011 0.001 0.003 0.0000 0.001 0.001 0.018
2046 0.011 0.002 0.005 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.019
2047 0.010 0.002 0.005 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.019
2048 0.010 0.002 0.005 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.018
2049 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.0000 0.001 0.000 0.003
2050 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000
TOTAL 0.627 0.394 0.237 0.0025 0.152 0.671 2.085
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
APPENDIX 9.3
AIR TRANSPORT
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
CONTENTS
1. Introduction 1
2. Scope 2
2.1 The types of GHG emissions assessed 2
2.2 GHG generating activities and spatial scope 3
2.3 Temporal scope and disaggregation 4
3. Quantification methodology 5
3.1 GHG emissions quantification 5 1: Flight activity 5 2: Aircraft fuel consumption 6 3: Operational efficiency factors 7 4: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission factor 7 Overall calculation 8
4. Assumptions and limitations 9
5. Quantification results 10
5.1 Total air transport emissions 10
5.2 Domestic flights 14
5.3 International flights 15
6. Glossary of terms 16
7. Bibliography 18
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 9.3.1: Air transport GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment 2 Table 9.3.2: Assumptions for assessment of air transport emissions 9 Table 9.3.3: Annual CO2 emissions from air transport 11 Table 9.3.4: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from air transport 16 Table 9.3.5: Technology adoption methodology 1 Table 9.3.6: Likely mid-point CO2 emissions for nominal range forecast 0 Table 9.3.7: Aircraft mapping table 4 Table 9.3.8: Domestic and international emissions breakdown 1 Table 9.3.9: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown 2 Table 9.3.10: Tradeable emissions 3 Table 9.3.11: International and domestic emissions breakdown 5
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.3.12: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown 6 Table 9.3.13: Tradeable emissions 7
TABLE OF GRAPHICS
Graphic 9.3.1: Calculation of air transport emissions 5 Equation 1: CO2 emissions calculation for air transport 8 Graphic 9.3.2: Total annual CO2 emissions from air transport: 11 Graphic 9.3.3: Cumulative emissions (2022-2050) for the two scenarios 12 Graphic 9.3.4: Air transport emissions by activity (future baseline scenario) 13 Graphic 9.3.5: Air transport emissions by activity (DCO Project without mitigation scenario) 13 Graphic 9.3.6: Emissions from domestic flights 14 Graphic 9.3.7: Emissions from international flights 15
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 This Appendix presents the quantification of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from
air transport. It covers the:
1. Scope of the quantification
2. Methodology followed
3. Assumptions and limitations
4. Results.
1.1.2 It presents CO2 emissions based on two scenarios that are modelled for the period
2022 to 2050:
1. Future Baseline: Heathrow continues to be capped at 480,000 air transport
movements (ATMs) with two runways
2. DCO Project without mitigation: three runway scenario, without
environmental measures other than those which are part of the physical
infrastructure of the preferred masterplan. As set out in Chapter 9: Carbon
and greenhouse gases, this scenario includes for example, efficient airfield
design to minimise taxiing distances and delays thereby minimising aircraft fuel
burn and associated emissions. It also accounts for future improvements in
aircraft fuel efficiency consistent with industry projections.
1.1.3 A further scenario, the DCO Project with mitigation, as required by the Airports
National Policy Statement (ANPS), has not been reported quantitively for air
transport for the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR).
Environmental measures are identified and presented in Chapter 9: Carbon and
greenhouse gases for comment and feedback, although at this stage of the
Project it has not been possible to assess their effects. The DCO Project with
mitigation scenario will therefore be fully assessed and reported in the
Environmental Statement (ES).
1.1.4 Note that air transport assesses CO2 only, not all greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, this is explained in Section 2: Scope. Therefore, where GHG
emissions are indicated in this Appendix, these are CO2 emissions only.
1.1.5 This Appendix does not provide an assessment of the likely significant effects from
the CO2 emissions from air transport. A preliminary assessment of likely significant
effects aggregating GHG emissions from all sub-aspects is included in Chapter 9:
Carbon and greenhouse gases.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. SCOPE
2.1.1 Table 9.3.1 lists the activities scoped in for the GHG emissions assessment of air
transport.
Table 9.3.1: Air transport GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment
Activity Effect
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from
air transport movements covering:
1) Climb, Cruise and Descent
(CCD) from Heathrow departures
2) The landing and take-off (LTO)
cycle at Heathrow including use
of Auxiliary Power Units (APUs).
CO2 emissions associated with air transport movements occur
due to the consumption of fuel by aircraft whilst on the ground
and in flight.
Total emissions depend on the number of transport movements,
the distance travelled by each movement (including factors that
influence emissions over the LTO cycle and use of APUs), the
fuel efficiency of the aircraft flown, operational factors and the
type of fuel consumed.
2.1.2 The scope described is detailed further in terms of:
1. The types of GHG emissions that are assessed
2. The GHG generating activities and their spatial scope
3. The temporal scope and disaggregation of results.
2.1 The types of GHG emissions assessed
2.1.1 Aircraft emit carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as other emissions such as nitrogen
oxides (NOx), particulates, sulphates and water vapour (typically referred to as
non-CO2 emissions1). These non-CO2 emissions are considered by the
Department for Transport (DfT) to potentially have a radiative forcing effect
(contribute to climate change) if emitted at altitude.
2.1.2 There is, however, no scientific consensus on the effect of non-CO2 emissions at
altitude at present. The advice of the CCC (Committee on Climate Change) is to
consider only CO2 emissions from air transportation (irrespective if they are
emitted on the ground or at altitude) until there is improved scientific evidence
(CCC, 2012; CCC,2009).
1 Some of these non-CO2 emissions if emitted at ground level, for instance NOx, are considered to be GHG for the purposes of the Climate Change Act although some, such as water vapour, are not.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2.1.3 This advice has been adopted by the DfT (DfT, 2017) and has informed its policy
on aviation and climate change and formed the basis of the assessment produced
in support of the ANPS.
2.1.4 The recently published consultation draft of the Aviation Strategy (DfT, 2018)
reconfirms this position. Paragraph 3.95 of the Aviation Strategy states that:
The government proposes: to keep non-CO2 emissions under review and reassess
the UK’s policy position as more evidence becomes available.
2.1.5 Therefore, this assessment (unlike the other sub-aspects) only considers CO2
emissions from air transport.
2.2 GHG generating activities and spatial scope
2.2.1 In terms of the GHG generating activities and the spatial scope of emissions to
consider the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the
UNFCCC) provides a recommended approach for reporting air transport emissions
at a country level (DfT, 2017).
2.2.2 This allocates departure CCD emissions (i.e. above 3000ft) and any LTO and APU
emissions (i.e., for arrivals and departures below 3000ft) to each country. This
avoids double counting emissions at a global scale when each country’s emissions
are totalled and is the approach adopted by the DfT in reporting of UK air transport
emissions. Taking each UK airport in turn it calculates the airport’s LTO (including
APU) and departure CCD emissions which when summed represent total UK air
transport emissions.
2.2.3 The same approach has therefore been taken by this assessment for air transport
emissions from Heathrow only.
2.2.4 The scope of activities reported for air transport therefore covers:
1. The LTO cycle at Heathrow, which includes emissions from arrivals and
departures of aircraft on the airfield and from take offs and landings up to
3000ft as well as emissions from APUs. This boundary is consistent with the
scope used by Chapter 7: Air quality and odour for air transport movements
(ATMs)
2. Departing flights above 3000ft, referred to as CCD. Emissions from arrivals
above 3000ft are accounted for by the country of the originating flight if an
international flight and of the originating UK airport if a domestic flight.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2.3 Temporal scope and disaggregation
2.3.1 The temporal scope for the assessment is consistent with the assessment years
detailed in Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases and covers the period
from 2022 to 2050.
2.3.2 As required by the ANPS, CO2 emissions from air transport have been presented
on an annual basis, split into CO2 emissions from2:
1. Domestic flights (defined as all flights within the United Kingdom)
2. International flights
3. Flights subject to the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) which are considered
to be tradeable emissions3
4. The LTO (including use of APUs) and CCD components of the flight.
2 Total emissions are the sum of domestic and international or the sum of CCD and LTO. Tradeable emissions include both domestic and international flights. 3 This covers flights that fall within countries that belong to the European Economic Area (EEA).
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
3. QUANTIFICATION METHODOLOGY
3.1 GHG emissions quantification
3.1.1 The quantification of air transport CO2 emissions covers the LTO (including APU)
and CCD components as described in Section 2. The assumptions applied in the
methodology to ensure the assessment of a reasonable worst case are detailed in
Section 4: Assumptions and limitations.
3.1.2 The calculation of emissions has considered four key modelling inputs:
1. Flight activity
2. Aircraft fuel consumption
3. Operational efficiency factors
4. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission factors.
Graphic 9.3.1 illustrates how these inputs have been combined to calculate air traffic
emissions.
Graphic 9.3.1: Calculation of air transport emissions
3.1.3 Each of these modelling inputs is detailed below.
1: Flight activity
3.1.4 The ATM forecast schedules have been produced by Heathrow and specify the
number, type and destinations of aircraft that are forecast to operate from
Heathrow. ATM forecast schedules have been produced for the Future Baseline
scenario for the years of 2022, 2024, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050, and
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
for the DCO Project scenario for the years of 2022 to 2027, 2030, 2035, 2040,
2045 and 2050.
3.1.5 The ATM forecast schedules are of ATMs and therefore exclude a small number
of movements (<0.5%) that are not associated with the transportation of goods
and or passengers, for example positioning, or test flights.
3.1.6 The LTO component of emissions depends on times in mode, that is, the length of
time that each aircraft spends in the various stages of the LTO cycle (approach,
landing roll, taxiing, take-off roll, initial climb and climb-out). For PEIR default times
for the standard ICAO LTO cycle as specified in EMEP/EEA (EEA, 2016) have
been used.
3.1.7 The CCD component of emissions depends on the distance flown. The
coordinates (latitude/longitude) of each destination airport in the forecast have
been obtained from publicly available databases, and the Great Circle Distance
(GCD) from Heathrow to each destination airport has been calculated from the
coordinate pairs using standard trigonometric formulae.
3.1.8 To account for the fact that aircraft often do not fly the exact GCD route, the
quantification has followed DfT guidance (DfT, 2017, p.48) which recommends
GCD ‘uplift factors’ that reflect:
“the latest evidence in inherent inefficiencies in air traffic control, flight paths and airspace.”
3.1.9 The GCD uplift factors that have been used are: 5% for short-haul and 6% for
long-haul and are considered to remain unchanged regardless of the scenario or
assessment year being modelled (DfT, 2017).
2: Aircraft fuel consumption
3.1.10 Aircraft fuel consumption rates have been derived from the European Monitoring
and Evaluation Program / European Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) guidebook
(EEA, 2016), formerly known as EMEP Corinair. The EEA and the UN’s Long-
Range Transboundary Air Pollution Project (LRTAP) produce the guidebook to
support the compilation of greenhouse gas inventories across Europe and across
market sectors.
3.1.11 The aviation chapter of the guidebook (EEA, 2016) recommends methodologies
for calculating CO2 emissions from air transport, with various ‘tiers’ or levels of
accuracy. Further detail is provided in supporting documentation produced by
Eurocontrol (Eurocontrol, 2016).
3.1.12 Data from the Tier 3A EMEP/EEA spreadsheet (EEA, 2016) has been used for this
assessment. The spreadsheet provides data on fuel consumption over the LTO
and CCD phases for aircraft types currently in operation for a range of distances
flown that has been derived from analysis of historic fuel consumption data held by
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Eurocontrol. Fuel consumption from APU’s have been calculated based on
assessment of APU fuel flow rates and running times whilst on stand consistent
with the assessment completed in Chapter 7: Air quality and odour.
3.1.13 Aircraft types, engines and flight trajectories evolve over time and, therefore, the
EMEP/EEA spreadsheet is updated periodically. For this quantification the latest
available 2016 version of the EMEP/EEA spreadsheet has been used.
3.1.14 As noted, the EMEP/EEA spreadsheet includes fuel consumption data for aircraft
types that have been in operation and formed part of the historic fuel burn analysis
that informed the 2016 version of the EMEP/EEA database. Since the ATM
forecast schedules derived by Heathrow and used by this quantification extend out
to 2050 and include aircraft types that were not in operation at the time the 2016
EMEP/EEA data was compiled the ‘baseline’ EMEP/EEA data has been scaled to
account for expected fuel efficiency improvements as the fleet evolves into the
future, for example due to in production incremental changes over time (e.g. use of
winglets) and by replacement of existing aircraft variants with newer more fuel
efficient models. Appendix 9.3: Carbon and greenhouse gases – Air transport,
Annex A provides further detail.
3.1.15 The fuel burn per aircraft movement has been calculated using the Breguet range
equation4. This takes into account the uplifted GCD for the movement and fuel
burn data described above. Fuel burn is converted to CO2 assuming 100% use of
kerosene aviation fuel at this point in the calculation.
3: Operational efficiency factors
3.1.16 The quantification also takes into account operational efficiency improvements
related to likely future airline operational changes as well as potential for wider
airspace efficiency gains beyond those included in the EMEP/EEA data.
3.1.17 Section 4 provides further details on assumptions adopted for this factor.
4: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) emission factor
3.1.18 The CO2 produced from air transport is directly related to the type of fuel that is
burnt. The CO2 emission factor for kerosene is 3.15 kg CO2 per kg of fuel (DfT,
2018). The effective CO2 emission factor for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is
lower and depends on the type of feedstock employed, method of production and
any transportation requirements.
3.1.19 The DfT has conservatively assumed a minimum penetration of 5% SAF blend
with 50% lifecycle carbon saving (compared to kerosene) by 2050 (DfT, 2017).
4 The Breguet range equation is algebraically developed from fundamental aeronautics principles that define an aircraft’s range capability as a function of aircraft weights, speed, aerodynamic and engine efficiencies.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.8 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
The impact of this on the CO2 emission factor for the blended fuel is to reduce it to
3.07 kg CO2 per kg of fuel blend burnt.
3.1.20 Higher blends of sustainable aviation fuel are anticipated by other actors. The
CCC has recently reconfirmed that a 10% blend by 2050 is feasible (CCC, 2018),
whilst UK industry sources consider blends of up to 40% by 2050 to be possible
(Sustainable Aviation Roadmap, 2016). Section 4 provides further details on
assumptions adopted for this factor in the assessment.
Overall calculation
3.1.21 In summary, the approach taken to calculate CO2 emissions associated with each
aircraft type/destination combination in the ATM forecast schedules is presented in
Equation 1.
Equation 1: CO2 emissions calculation for air transport
Air transport CO2 per aircraft type per annum to each destination = CO2 CCD + CO2 LTO where CO2 CCD = N × fCCD(d) x f Ops x K fuel CO2 LTO = N x fLTO x f Ops × K fuel
where N = number of movements of this aircraft type to this destination per year fCCD = fuel consumption for CCD for this aircraft type, for this uplifted route distance d d = the uplifted route distance (great circle distance multiplied by 1.05 for short-haul or 1.06 for long-haul) fLTO = fuel burn for LTO cycle including APU use for this aircraft type f Ops = Operational efficiency factor K fuel = CO2 emission factor for this aircraft movement taking into account use of SAF.
3.1.22 The sum of all aircraft movements to each of the destinations specified in the ATM
forecast schedules provides the annual total air transport CO2 emissions in any
year.
3.1.23 The methodology presented in Equation 1 is repeated for each of the ATM
forecast schedules provided for the Future Baseline and DCO Project scenarios.
3.1.24 CO2 emissions for years for which a forecast has not been produced are
interpolated based on growth in ATMs between the closest years for which
forecasts have been provided.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.9 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
4. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS
4.1.1 Table 9.3.2 presents the assumptions adopted by the assessment of air transport
emissions for the Future Baseline and DCO Project without mitigation scenarios.
Table 9.3.2: Assumptions for assessment of air transport emissions
Project parameter Assumption adopted in the Future Baseline and DCO Project without
mitigation scenario
ATM forecast
schedule
The assumptions underlying the ATM forecast schedules for the DCO Project
and Future baseline are based on Heathrow analysis that reflects likely future
development of the aircraft fleet operating from Heathrow and routes flown
Great circle
distance factors
Both scenarios have adopted uplift factors of the GCD based on DfT
assumptions of 5% uplift for short haul flights and 6% for long haul flights.
Time in Mode Both scenarios assume standard ICAO values for time in mode reflected in
EMEP/EEA.
APU emissions Both scenarios assume APU run time whilst on stand reflecting current day
operating restrictions at Heathrow. This is conservative as it does not account
for potential reductions in APU use in the future, for example through greater
use of pre conditioned air (PCA).
Fuel efficiency of
aircraft types
Both scenarios use the same assumptions.
The EMEP/EEA spreadsheet represents best available information on fuel
efficiency of existing aircraft types. Likely mid-point assumptions have been
derived for fuel efficiency of future aircraft types based on Heathrow analysis.
In summary this analysis assumes that the fuel efficiency of aircraft will
improve by 8-12% over the production life of a given aircraft model due to
incremental technology insertions, and by an additional 10-18% due to step
change improvements when a given aircraft model’s next generation
replacement aircraft enters service (refer to Appendix 9.3, Annex A for
further detail).
Operational
efficiency factors
Both scenarios have assumed no CO2 savings from operational
improvements in the future consistent with DfT advice (DfT, 2017) and
represents a conservative view.
Sustainable
Aviation Fuel (SAF)
factors
Both scenarios have assumed 5% blend of SAF by 2050 with 50% lifecycle
benefit (compared to kerosene) consistent with latest DfT advice (DfT, 2017)
and represents a conservative view.
Assuming a 5% blend with 50% lifecycle benefits by 2050 results in a fuel to
CO2 emission factor of 3.075 kg CO2/kg of aviation fuel.
5 (0.95 + 0.05/2) x 3.15 (kerosene fuel CO2 factor)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.10 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5. QUANTIFICATION RESULTS
5.1.1 The results of the air transport quantification are presented in graphical form below
for the scope presented in Section 2 as:
1. Total emissions from all air transport activities by year from 2022 to 2050,
including disaggregated by domestic and international flights
2. Cumulative total emissions between 2022 and 2050.
5.1.2 In each case the results are presented for the scenarios of:
1. Future Baseline
2. DCO Project without mitigation.
5.1.3 The results are also presented in tabular form to specify emissions in the current
baseline (2017), the first year of operation (2022), year of maximum release of first
phase of capacity (2025), first full year of operations (2027), the year of maximum
ATM capacity or final year of assessment (2050) and for the worst case year
(when emissions are at their highest).
5.1.4 Appendix 9.3, Annex B contains detailed results by activity, year and scenario.
This also includes details on emissions by phase of flights (LTO and CCD) as well
as total emissions from flights subject to the EU ETS (tradeable emissions).
5.1 Total air transport emissions
5.1.1 Graphic 9.3.2 shows the total CO2 emissions for the two scenarios modelled. This
shows that emissions in the DCO Project scenario without mitigation are higher
than the Future Baseline scenario with emissions for the DCO Project without
mitigation scenario peaking in 2035.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.11 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.3.2: Total annual CO2 emissions from air transport:
5.1.2 Table 9.3.3 shows the annual CO2 emissions from air transport activity for each
scenario for key assessment years as described in Chapter 9: Carbon and
greenhouse gases, Section 9.4, including the year of maximum emissions.
Table 9.3.3: Annual CO2 emissions from air transport
Scenario
Annual CO2 Emissions (MtCO2)
Current baseline
First year of assessment
Year of maximum release of
first phase of capacity
First full year of third
runway operations
Year of minimum
ANPS capacity
Year of maximum capacity
Year of maximum
GHG emissions
2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)
Future baseline
20.09 18.81 17.98 17.66 16.17 12.37 18.81 (2022)
DCO Project without mitigation
20.09 19.11 19.06 19.95 25.09 19.90 25.09 (2035)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.12 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5.1.3 Table 9.3.3 shows the cumulative emissions for each scenario, showing the
increase of the DCO Project without mitigation scenario compared to the Future
Baseline scenario.
Graphic 9.3.3: Cumulative emissions (2022-2050) for the two scenarios
5.1.4 Graphic 9.3.4, and Graphic 9.3.5 show the total CO2 emissions split by domestic
and international flights for each scenario. This Graphic shows the dominance of
international emissions, representing circa 99% of total air transport emissions.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.13 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.3.4: Air transport emissions by activity (future baseline scenario)
Graphic 9.3.5: Air transport emissions by activity (DCO Project without mitigation scenario)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.14 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5.2 Domestic flights
5.2.1 Domestic flight emissions have been modelled for the two scenarios (Graphic
9.3.6).
Graphic 9.3.6: Emissions from domestic flights
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.15 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5.3 International flights
5.3.1 International flight emissions have been modelled for the two scenarios and are
shown in Graphic 9.3.7.
Graphic 9.3.7: Emissions from international flights
5.3.2 Graphic 9.3.7 shows that the profile of international emissions is similar to that of
total emissions (shown in Graphic 9.3.2). This is because international emissions
represent circa 99% of total air transport emissions. The emissions related to the
DCO Project without mitigation peak in 2035 and are higher than for the Future
Baseline scenario.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.16 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
6. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Table 9.3.4: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from air transport
Term Definition
ANPS Airports National Policy Statement
APU Auxiliary Power Unit
ATM Air transport movement
Carbon Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions
CCC Committee on Climate Change
CCD Climb out, cruise and descent
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent
DfT Department for Transport
EEA European Environment Agency
EMEP European Monitoring and Evaluation Program
ES Environmental statement
EU European Union
EU ETS European Union Emission Trading Scheme
GHG Greenhouse gases
GCD Great circle distance
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
Long-haul Flights to destinations outwith Western Europe
LRTAP Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Project
LTO Landing and take-off. The LTO cycle is a standard defined by ICAO for the purposes of modelling local airport related emissions.
MtCO2 Million tonnes of carbon dioxide
NOX Nitrogen oxides
PEIR Preliminary Environmental Information Report
PCA Pre-Conditioned Air
SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Short-haul Flights to ‘'Western Europe', which comprises the following groups of countries: Andorra; Austria; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Cape Verde; Channel Isles, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Faroe Islands; Finland; France; Germany; Gibraltar; Greece; Greenland; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Macedonia; Malta; Republic of Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; Norway; Poland; Portugal; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain;
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
Appendix 9.3.17 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Term Definition
Sweden; Switzerland; and Turkey (DfT, 2017). This is consistent with the definition of 'Western Europe' used in the department's aviation model suite.
UK United Kingdom
UN United Nations
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Appendix 9.3.18 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Full text reference In-text reference
Committee on Climate Change (CCC). (December 2009). Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050. [online]. Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/CCC-Meeting-the-UK-
Aviation-target-2009.pdf [Accessed 28 February 2019].
CCC, 2009
Committee on Climate Change (CCC). (April 2012). Scope of carbon budgets – Statutory
advice on inclusion of international aviation and shipping. [online]. Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/CCC_IAS_Core-
ScopeOfBudgets_Interactive.pdf [Accessed 28 February 2019].
CCC, 2012
Committee on Climate Change (CCC). (November 2018). Biomass in a low-carbon economy. [online]. Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-
content/uploads/2018/11/Biomass-in-a-low-carbon-economy-CCC-2018.pdf [Accessed 28 February 2019].
CCC, 2018
Department for Transport (DfT). (December 2018). Aviation 2050 The future of UK aviation: A consultation. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/aviation-2050-the-future-of-uk-aviation [Accessed 28 February 2019].
DfT, 2018
Department for Transport (DfT). (October 2017). UK Aviation Forecasts. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/653821
/uk-aviation-forecasts-2017.pdf [Accessed 28 February 2019].
DfT, 2017
Eurocontrol. (June 2016). EUROCONTROL method for estimating aviation fuel burnt and emissions in the framework of the EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016. 1.A.3.a Aviation – Annex 5 – Master emission calculator 2016. [online]. Available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2016/part-b-sectoral-guidance-chapters/1-energy/1-a-combustion/1-a-3-a-aviation-
1/view [Accessed 28 February 2019].
Eurocontrol, 2016
European Environment Agency (EEA). (2016). EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook - 2016. Chapter 1.A.3.a Aviation. [online]. Available at:
https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/emep-eea-guidebook-2016 [Accessed 28 February 2019].
EEA, 2016
Sustainable Aviation Roadmap. (2016). [online]. Available at: https://www.sustainableaviation.co.uk/wp-
content/uploads/2018/06/FINAL__SA_Roadmap_2016.pdf [Accessed 28 February 2019].
Sustainable Aviation Roadmap, 2016
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ANNEX A FUEL EFFICIENCY DATA FOR FUTURE AIRCRAFT TYPES
7.1.1 Aircraft fuel efficiency data has been developed to account for fuel efficiency
improvements in the aircraft fleet forecast to operate at Heathrow out to 2050 for
the Future Baseline and DCO Project scenarios.
7.1.2 The forecast of future aircraft fuel efficiency has considered fuel efficiency
improvements due to incremental development of aircraft over their production
cycle (for example due to additions of winglets, engine performance improvement
packages, lightweight interiors) as well as step change technological
improvements that result in new aircraft variants.
7.1.3 The forecast improvements have been developed through analysis of historical
improvement in emissions by aircraft type, an evaluation of the history of
emissions regulation, and assessment of the future technology pipeline and its
emissions reduction potential and the maturity of the technology. The steps
involved in determining the adoption of future technologies and their effect on fuel
efficiency are described further through Table 9.3.5.
Table 9.3.5: Technology adoption methodology
# Step Description
1 Technology Identification Identify the technologies that can improve fuel efficiency if installed on new in-production aircraft
2 Technology Assessments Identify the magnitude and means by which these technologies improve fuel efficiency by aircraft category
3 Probability of Technical Success
Assess the probability of technical success by technology and aircraft size category
4 Probability of Commercial Success
Assess the probability of commercial success by technology and aircraft size category
5 Fuel/CO2 Emissions Forecast Derive the forecasted fuel/CO2 reductions down to the aircraft model within aircraft size category
7.1.4 To describe the evolution of aircraft the following definitions have been adopted:
Generation 0: This represents existing aircraft types (whether in or out of production)
from a previous design generation and are included within EMAP/EEA
(EEA, 2016) data, for example Airbus A320.
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Generation 1: This represents the replacement aircraft for Generation 0 types, for
example Airbus A320 neo.
Generation 2: This represents Generation 1 replacement aircraft that are likely to emerge
in the period after 2030 and continue to be in production and delivered to
and beyond 2050.
7.1.5 The assessment has determined that the fuel efficiency of aircraft will improve by
8-12% over the production life of a given aircraft model due to incremental
technology insertions, and by an additional 10-18% due to step change
improvement when a given aircraft model’s next generation replacement aircraft
enters service, e.g. moving from Generation 1 to Generation 2 model.
7.1.6 Table 9.3.6 details the likely midpoint effect of the fuel efficiency projections
represented as CO2 emissions for a nominal range for existing and future aircraft
types out to 2050 classified by generation.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
A0 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.3.6: Likely mid-point CO2 emissions for nominal range forecast
Aircraft
Model
Manufa
cturer
Entry
into
Service
Aircraft
Size
Category6
Aircraft
Genera
tion
Nominal
Range
(Nautical
miles)
CO2 Emissions (kg)
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
A318 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 13,959 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889 13,889
A319 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 13,931 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861 13,861
A320 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 15,282 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205 15,205
A321 Airbus 1988 NB G0 745 19,242 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145 19,145
A319neo Airbus 2016 NB G0 745 12,537 12,473 12,301 12,015 11,651 11,651 11,651 11,651
A320neo Airbus 2016 NB G0 745 13,753 13,683 13,494 13,180 12,781 12,781 12,781 12,781
A321neo Airbus 2016 NB G0 745 17,317 17,228 16,991 16,595 16,093 16,093 16,093 16,093
A330-200 Airbus 1994 Large WB G0 1,856 75,852 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620 75,620
A330-300 Airbus 1994 Large WB G0 1,856 72,205 71,984 71,984 71,984 71,984 71,984 71,984 71,984
A330neo-
900
Airbus 2018 Large WB G1 1,856 - 63,568 63,070 62,763 62,763 62,763 62,763 62,763
A350-800 Airbus 2015 Large WB G0 2,478 82,420 81,997 80,783 78,907 76,467 75,378 75,378 75,378
A350-900 Airbus 2015 Large WB G0 2,478 86,757 86,313 85,035 83,060 80,492 79,345 79,345 79,345
A350-1000 Airbus 2015 Large WB G0 2,478 95,433 94,944 93,539 91,366 88,541 87,279 87,279 87,279
A380-800 Airbus 2006 Large
Quad
G0 3,813 330,582 328,883 323,978 322,838 322,838 322,838 322,838 322,838
6 The dividing line between small and large widebody is ~300 seats.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aircraft
Model
Manufa
cturer
Entry
into
Service
Aircraft
Size
Category6
Aircraft
Genera
tion
Nominal
Range
(Nautical
miles)
CO2 Emissions (kg)
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
737-700 Boeing 1997 NB G0 862 16,869 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786 16,786
737-800 Boeing 1997 NB G0 862 18,225 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136 18,136
737-900 Boeing 1997 NB G0 862 18,835 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743 18,743
737MAX-
700
Boeing 2017 NB G0 862 15,200 15,165 15,030 14,782 14,463 14,463 14,463 14,463
737MAX-
800
Boeing 2017 NB G0 862 16,422 16,385 16,239 15,971 15,626 15,626 15,626 15,626
737MAX-
900
Boeing 2017 NB G0 862 16,971 16,933 16,782 16,505 16,149 16,149 16,149 16,149
757-300 Boeing 1983 NB G0 1,411 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169 42,169
NMA Boeing 2025 Small WB G2 1,411 - - 33,735 33,511 32,959 32,190 31,700 31,700
787-8 Boeing 2011 Small WB G0 2,837 91,666 91,253 90,078 88,262 86,892 86,892 86,892 86,892
787-9 Boeing 2011 Small WB G0 2,837 98,578 98,134 96,871 94,918 93,445 93,445 93,445 93,445
787-10 Boeing 2011 Small WB G0 2,837 103,507 103,041 101,714 99,664 98,117 98,117 98,117 98,117
777-200 Boeing 1995 Large WB G0 2,404 101,525 101,065 100,842 100,842 100,842 100,842 100,842 100,842
777-300 Boeing 1995 Large WB G0 2,404 120,392 119,846 119,582 119,582 119,582 119,582 119,582 119,582
777-300ER Boeing 1995 Large WB G0 2,404 135,595 134,980 134,682 134,682 134,682 134,682 134,682 134,682
777X-800 Boeing 2020 Large WB G1 2,404 - 102,474 101,972 100,743 98,944 96,772 94,951 94,951
777X-900 Boeing 2020 Large WB G1 2,404 - 115,414 114,849 113,465 111,439 108,992 106,942 106,942
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
A2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Aircraft
Model
Manufa
cturer
Entry
into
Service
Aircraft
Size
Category6
Aircraft
Genera
tion
Nominal
Range
(Nautical
miles)
CO2 Emissions (kg)
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
747-8 Boeing 2011 Large
Quad
G0 3,243 220,099 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951 218,951
CRJ900 Bombar
dier
2001 RJ G0 434 6,854 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841 6,841
CS300 Bombar
dier
2016 RJ G0 745 12,574 12,527 12,382 12,127 11,934 11,934 11,934 11,934
E170 Embrae
r
2004 RJ G0 494 7,054 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033 7,033
E190 Embrae
r
2004 RJ G0 503 9,255 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228
E195 Embrae
r
2004 RJ G0 503 9,255 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228 9,228
E175 E2 Embrae
r
2018 RJ G1 494 - 6,349 6,302 6,220 6,081 6,002 6,002 6,002
E190 E2 Embrae
r
2018 RJ G1 503 - 8,329 8,268 8,161 7,978 7,874 7,874 7,874
E195 E2 Embrae
r
2018 RJ G1 503 - 8,329 8,268 8,161 7,978 7,874 7,874 7,874
MRJ Mitsubis
hi
2020 RJ G1 503 - 8,335 8,298 8,214 8,058 8,015 8,015 8,015
Future NB TBA 2032 NB G2 745 - - - - 9,887 9,768 9,607 9,431
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Aircraft
Model
Manufa
cturer
Entry
into
Service
Aircraft
Size
Category6
Aircraft
Genera
tion
Nominal
Range
(Nautical
miles)
CO2 Emissions (kg)
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Future
Small WB
TBA 2032 Small WB G2 2,837 - - - - 77,775 76,853 75,558 74,074
Future
Large WB
TBA 2044 Large WB G2 2,404 - - - - - - 84,229 83,868
Future RJ TBA 2035 RJ G2 503 - - - - 6,585 6,556 6,479 6,347
A340-300 Airbus 1993 Large WB G0 3,159 148,400 148,400 148,400 148,400 148,400 148,400 148,400 148,400
A340-600 Airbus 1993 Large WB G0 3,159 185,384 185,384 185,384 185,384 185,384 185,384 185,384 185,384
747-400 Boeing 1989 Large
Quad
G0 3,243 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053 209,053
767-300 Boeing 1982 Small WB G0 2,214 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630
767-300ER Boeing 1982 Small WB G0 2,214 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630 75,630
Q400 Bombar
dier
1984 TP G0 227 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375 2,375
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A4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
7.1.7 The aircraft types from Table 9.3.6 are mapped to aircraft descriptors in the Future
Baseline and DCO Project ATM forecast schedules based on Table 9.3.7.
Table 9.3.7: Aircraft mapping table
Heathrow Aircraft Nomenclature in
ATM forecast schedule
Aircraft
Generation
Aircraft Nomenclature
modelled types
Aircraft Size
Category
318 G0 A318 NB
319 G0 A319 NB
319N G1 A319neo NB
320 G0 A320 NB
320N G1 A320neo NB
320X G2 Future NB NB
321 G0 A321 NB
321N G1 A321neo NB
321X G2 Future NB NB
32B G0 A320 NB
32H G0 A320 NB
332 G0 A330-200 Large WB
333 G0 A330-300 Large WB
339 G1 A330neo-900 Large WB
343 G0 A340-300 Large WB
346 G0 A340-600 Large WB
351 G1 A350-1000 Large WB
351N G2 Future Small WB Large WB
359 G1 A350-900 Large WB
359N G2 Future Small WB Large WB
388 G0 A380-800 Large Quad
738 G0 737-800 NB
73H G0 737-800 NB
73J G0 737-900 NB
73W G0 737-700 NB
744 G0 747-400 Large Quad
74H G0 747-8 Large Quad
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Heathrow Aircraft Nomenclature in
ATM forecast schedule
Aircraft
Generation
Aircraft Nomenclature
modelled types
Aircraft Size
Category
763 G0 767-300 Small WB
76W G0 767-300 Small WB
772 G0 777-200 Large WB
773 G0 777-300 Large WB
779 G1 777X-900 Large WB
779N G2 Future Large WB Large WB
77W G0 777-300ER Large WB
781 G1 787-10 Small WB
781N G2 Future Small WB Small WB
788 G1 787-8 Small WB
788N G2 Future Small WB Small WB
789 G1 787-9 Small WB
789N G2 Future Small WB Small WB
7M7 G1 737MAX-700 NB
7M8 G1 737MAX-800 NB
7M9 G1 737MAX-900 NB
7X8 G2 Future NB NB
7X9 G2 Future NB NB
DH4 G0 Q400 TP
E90 G0 E190 RJ
E95 G0 E195 RJ
E95-2 G1 E195 E2 RJ
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
ANNEX B DETAILED RESULTS FOR AIR TRANSPORT
Future baseline
Table 9.3.8: Domestic and international emissions breakdown
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
Future baseline
Year Domestic International TOTAL
2022 0.16 18.65 18.81
2023 0.16 18.38 18.54
2024 0.17 18.11 18.28
2025 0.17 17.81 17.98
2026 0.17 17.66 17.82
2027 0.17 17.50 17.66
2028 0.17 17.37 17.53
2029 0.16 17.23 17.40
2030 0.16 17.10 17.26
2031 0.16 16.88 17.04
2032 0.16 16.67 16.82
2033 0.15 16.45 16.61
2034 0.15 16.24 16.39
2035 0.15 16.02 16.17
2036 0.15 15.77 15.92
2037 0.15 15.52 15.66
2038 0.14 15.27 15.41
2039 0.14 15.01 15.16
2040 0.14 14.76 14.90
2041 0.14 14.51 14.65
2042 0.14 14.26 14.40
2043 0.14 14.01 14.14
2044 0.14 13.76 13.89
2045 0.13 13.50 13.64
2046 0.13 13.25 13.38
2047 0.13 13.00 13.13
2048 0.13 12.75 12.88
2049 0.13 12.50 12.62
2050 0.13 12.24 12.37
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B2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
Future baseline
Year Domestic International TOTAL
Cumulative Total 4.30 452.17 456.47
Table 9.3.9: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
Future baseline
Year CCD LTO including APU TOTAL
2022 17.64 1.17 18.81
2023 17.38 1.16 18.54
2024 17.13 1.15 18.28
2025 16.85 1.14 17.98
2026 16.70 1.13 17.82
2027 16.55 1.12 17.66
2028 16.42 1.11 17.53
2029 16.30 1.10 17.40
2030 16.18 1.09 17.26
2031 15.97 1.08 17.04
2032 15.76 1.06 16.82
2033 15.55 1.05 16.61
2034 15.35 1.04 16.39
2035 15.14 1.03 16.17
2036 14.90 1.02 15.92
2037 14.66 1.00 15.66
2038 14.42 0.99 15.41
2039 14.18 0.98 15.16
2040 13.94 0.97 14.90
2041 13.70 0.95 14.65
2042 13.45 0.94 14.40
2043 13.21 0.93 14.14
2044 12.97 0.92 13.89
2045 12.73 0.90 13.64
2046 12.49 0.89 13.38
2047 12.25 0.88 13.13
2048 12.01 0.87 12.88
2049 11.77 0.85 12.62
2050 11.53 0.84 12.37
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B3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
Future baseline
Year CCD LTO including APU TOTAL
Cumulative Total 427.11 29.37 456.47
Table 9.3.10: Tradeable emissions7
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
Future baseline
Year Traded (includes Domestic)
2022 1.82
2023 1.81
2024 1.80
2025 1.80
2026 1.79
2027 1.78
2028 1.74
2029 1.71
2030 1.68
2031 1.66
2032 1.64
2033 1.62
2034 1.60
2035 1.57
2036 1.56
2037 1.55
2038 1.54
2039 1.52
2040 1.51
2041 1.50
2042 1.49
2043 1.48
2044 1.46
2045 1.45
2046 1.44
2047 1.43
7 The ANPS requires tradeable emissions to be reported. For air transport these are defined as emissions subject to the EU ETS.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
B4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
Future baseline
Year Traded (includes Domestic)
2048 1.41
2049 1.40
2050 1.39
Cumulative Total 46.13
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B5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
DCO Project without mitigation
Table 9.3.11: International and domestic emissions breakdown
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year Domestic International TOTAL
2022 0.16 18.95 19.11
2023 0.18 19.09 19.27
2024 0.18 19.02 19.19
2025 0.18 18.88 19.06
2026 0.18 18.54 18.71
2027 0.22 19.73 19.95
2028 0.22 20.95 21.17
2029 0.22 22.15 22.37
2030 0.22 23.34 23.56
2031 0.22 23.65 23.87
2032 0.22 23.96 24.18
2033 0.22 24.27 24.49
2034 0.21 24.58 24.80
2035 0.21 24.88 25.09
2036 0.21 24.24 24.44
2037 0.21 23.59 23.79
2038 0.20 22.94 23.14
2039 0.20 22.29 22.50
2040 0.20 21.65 21.85
2041 0.20 21.49 21.69
2042 0.19 21.34 21.53
2043 0.19 21.18 21.37
2044 0.19 21.02 21.21
2045 0.19 20.87 21.06
2046 0.19 20.64 20.83
2047 0.19 20.41 20.60
2048 0.18 20.18 20.36
2049 0.18 19.95 20.13
2050 0.18 19.73 19.90
Cumulative Total 5.73 623.52 629.24
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.3 – Air transport
B6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.3.12: CCD and LTO emissions breakdown
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year CCD LTO including APU TOTAL
2022 17.95 1.17 19.11
2023 18.09 1.18 19.27
2024 18.01 1.18 19.19
2025 17.88 1.18 19.06
2026 17.55 1.16 18.71
2027 18.70 1.25 19.95
2028 19.86 1.31 21.17
2029 21.00 1.37 22.37
2030 22.13 1.43 23.56
2031 22.42 1.45 23.87
2032 22.71 1.47 24.18
2033 23.00 1.49 24.49
2034 23.29 1.51 24.80
2035 23.57 1.52 25.09
2036 22.95 1.50 24.44
2037 22.33 1.47 23.79
2038 21.71 1.44 23.14
2039 21.08 1.41 22.50
2040 20.46 1.38 21.85
2041 20.31 1.37 21.69
2042 20.17 1.36 21.53
2043 20.02 1.35 21.37
2044 19.87 1.35 21.21
2045 19.72 1.34 21.06
2046 19.51 1.32 20.83
2047 19.29 1.30 20.60
2048 19.08 1.29 20.36
2049 18.86 1.27 20.13
2050 18.65 1.26 19.90
Cumulative Total 590.15 39.09 629.24
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B7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.3.13: Tradeable emissions8
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year Traded (includes Domestic)
2022 1.82
2023 1.85
2024 1.84
2025 1.85
2026 1.84
2027 2.08
2028 2.14
2029 2.21
2030 2.27
2031 2.29
2032 2.30
2033 2.32
2034 2.33
2035 2.35
2036 2.33
2037 2.32
2038 2.30
2039 2.29
2040 2.27
2041 2.26
2042 2.24
2043 2.23
2044 2.21
2045 2.20
2046 2.17
2047 2.14
2048 2.11
2049 2.08
2050 2.05
Cumulative Total 62.70
8 The ANPS requires tradeable emissions to be reported. For air transport these are emissions subject to the EU ETS.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4© Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
APPENDIX 9.4
SURFACE ACCESS
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
CONTENTS
1. Introduction 1
2. Scope 2
3. Quantification methodology 3
3.1 GHG emissions quantification 3
4. Assumptions and limitations 6
5. Quantification results 9
5.1 Total surface access emissions 9
5.2 Passengers 13
5.3 Colleagues 14
5.4 Freight 14
6. Glossary of terms 15
7. Bibliography 16
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 9.4.1: Surface access GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment 2 Table 9.4.2: Detailed methodology 4 Table 9.4.3: Assumptions for reasonable worst case assessment of GHG emissions from surface access 6 Table 9.4.4: Annual GHG emissions from surface access 10 Table 9.4.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from surface access 15 Table 9.4.6: Surface access GHG factors 1 Table 9.4.7: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline) 1 Table 9.4.8: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 2 Table 9.4.9: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project with mitigation) 3
TABLE OF GRAPHICS
Graphic 9.4.1: Total GHG emissions from surface access 10 Graphic 9.4.2: Cumulative GHG emissions from surface access between 2022 and 2050 11 Graphic 9.4.3: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (Future baseline) 12
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.4.4: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project without mitigation) 12 Graphic 9.4.5: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project with mitigation) 13
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 This Appendix presents the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for
surface access travel. GHG emissions have been quantified for passenger,
colleague and freight movements to and from Heathrow. It covers the:
1. Scope of the quantification
2. Methodology followed
3. Assumptions and limitations
4. Results.
1.1.2 It presents GHG emissions based on three scenarios that are modelled for the
period 2022 to 2050:
1. Future baseline: Heathrow continues to be capped at 480,000 air transport
movements (ATMs) with two runways
2. DCO Project without mitigation: three runway scenario, without
environmental measures other than those which are part of the physical
infrastructure of the preferred masterplan
3. DCO Project with mitigation: three runway scenario, including the full suite of
environmental measures.
Both DCO Project scenarios assessed include changes to the physical transport
infrastructure such as roads and motorway junctions associated with the DCO
Project design. The DCO Project with mitigation scenario also includes further
environmental measures included in the Surface Access Proposals, such as
vehicle access charges, reduced rail fares, colleague travel plans and freight
consolidation.
1.1.3 This Appendix does not provide an assessment of the likely significant effects from
GHG emissions. A preliminary assessment of likely significant effects aggregating
GHG emissions from all sub-aspects is included in Chapter 9: Carbon and
greenhouse gases.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. SCOPE
2.1.1 Surface access transport GHG emissions have been considered from passenger,
colleague and freight movements. GHG emissions due to surface access
movements between Heathrow and the rest of the UK mainland have been
included in the assessment using the following modes: private road vehicles (cars,
motorbikes), taxis, freight vehicles (light goods vehicles (LGV) and heavy goods
vehicles (HGV)), buses and coaches, surface rail and London underground.
2.1.2 The methodology and underlying assumptions used to generate the surface
access models are as described in the Preliminary Transport Information
Report (PTIR), Volume 1, Chapter 5: Methodology. Further processing has
been undertaken for the surface access GHG emissions assessment (summarised
in Section 3.1: GHG emissions quantification). A summary of the assumptions
made is recorded in Section 4: Assumptions and limitations of this Appendix.
2.1.3 Table 9.4.1 lists out the activities scoped in for the GHG emissions assessment.
Table 9.4.1: Surface access GHG emitting activities scoped in for assessment
Activity Effect
GHG emissions from passenger access, colleague
access and freight movement. Includes the following
modes of transport:
1) Private road vehicles (cars, motorbikes)
2) Taxis (including minicab)
3) Light Goods Vehicles (LGV)
4) Heavy Good Vehicles (HGV)
5) Buses and Coaches
6) Surface rail and London Underground.
GHG emissions associated with surface
access occur due to the consumption of fuel in
vehicle movements (this includes passengers,
colleagues and freight movements). Note that
colleague travel includes all people working
anywhere at the airport.
Total emissions depend on the number of
transport movements, the distance travelled for
each movement and the mixture of transport
modes (road and rail access) used over time.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
3. QUANTIFICATION METHODOLOGY
3.1 GHG emissions quantification
3.1.1 The quantification of surface access transport GHG emissions covers passenger
access, colleague access and freight movement and has included the following
modes of transport:
1. Private road vehicles (cars, motorbikes)
2. Taxis (including minicabs)
3. LGVs
4. HGVs
5. Buses and coaches
6. Surface rail and London Underground.
3.1.2 These modes are further divided into user classes and include petrol, diesel and
electric propelled vehicles.
3.1.1 The activity units used to calculate GHG emissions for each mode of transport are
total vehicle kilometres travelled (for passenger and colleague private vehicles and
freight vehicles) or passenger kilometres travelled (for passenger and colleague
public transport). The quantification of these activities has been completed using
journey demand (number of journeys), distance and transport mode sourced from
outputs of the traffic and transport models (Heathrow Highway Assignment and
Surface Access Model (HHASAM) v2.0, London Airports Surface Access Model
(LASAM) v4.2, Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model (HEM-CM) v1.14). The
methodology and assumptions used to generate these models are as described in
the PTIR, Volume 1, Chapter 5.
3.1.2 The activity data was then multiplied by the appropriate GHG emissions factor for
each mode of transport and assessment year. The GHG emissions factors used
were sourced from the UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for Company
Reporting for 2017 (BEIS, August 2017), for consistency with the current baseline
assessment.
3.1.3 GHG emissions factors for cars and LGVs for each year between 2022 and 2050
were calculated to account for projected changes in the vehicle fleet mix (diesel,
petrol and electric vehicles) showing an increasing proportion of electric vehicles
over time (up to 25% electric vehicles in 2050). These calculations applied the
projected proportions of vehicle kilometres by fuel type (up to 2050) in the Web-
based Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG) table A1.3.9 (DfT, May 2018) to
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
the BEIS 2017 GHG emissions factors. The GHG emissions factors applied in the
quantification are presented in Table 9.4.6.
3.1.4 The estimated GHG emissions for each mode of transport were aggregated to
establish the overall surface access GHG emissions estimate for each
assessment year and scenario.
3.1.5 Table 9.4.2 provides more detail into the surface access methodology by project
parameter.
Table 9.4.2: Detailed methodology
Project parameter Methodology description
Transport models based on: passenger numbers, colleague numbers, distances travelled, cargo and other goods, transport mode split
The latest versions of the traffic and transport models (HHASAM v2.0, LASAM v4.2 and HEM-CM v1.14) available at the time of assessment have been used. In line with the PTIR, surface access model results have been obtained for the baseline year (2017) and a limited number of future years only (as detailed in this table under Passenger numbers, Colleague numbers and Cargo and other goods). 2017 is the baseline year to enable comparison checks between the transport scenarios modelled and also checks against the previously published Heathrow Carbon Footprint (2017). The assessment period reported for the Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) is 2022 to 2050. Activities for each year between modelled years have been linearly interpolated, and activities between 2040 and 2050 have been scaled proportionally to growth in passengers or ATMs as detailed in Section 4.
Passenger numbers
The London Airport Surface Access Model (LASAM) v4.2 model has been used to estimate the number of passenger transport movements and distances travelled by transport mode and origin or destination zone. Annual numbers of movements and distances travelled have been modelled only at the following years: 2017 for the baseline scenario, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2040 for the future baseline and DCO Project with mitigation scenarios, and 2030 and 2040 for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario.
Colleague numbers
The Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model (HEM-CM) v1.14 has been used to estimate the number of colleague movements and distances travelled by transport mode and origin or destination zone. This is for all Heathrow colleagues, including in retail. The numbers of movements and distances travelled have been modelled only at the following years: 2017 for the baseline scenario, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2040 for the future baseline and DCO Project with mitigation scenarios, and 2030 and 2040 for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario up to 2025, as the further environmental measures from the Surface Access Proposals are assumed to be implemented and affect model results from 2027 onwards. Other (masterplan design) environmental measures which start earlier are assumed in both scenarios.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Methodology description
Cargo and other goods
The Heathrow Highway Assignment and Surface Access Model (HHASAM) v2.0 has been used for freight movements by road by origin-destination zones. Annual numbers of movements and distances travelled have been modelled only at the following years: 2017 for the baseline scenario, 2022, 2024, 2025, 2027, 2030, 2035 and 2040 for the future baseline and DCO Project with mitigation scenarios. Heathrow related freight traffic consists of LGV and HGV trips. These trips are for airline servicing (in-flight catering); airport servicing (maintenance and improvement projects); retail (retail in passenger terminals); waste collection; and cargo and mail (exports, imports and transhipments). Freight services are likely to be provided by a mix of vehicles of different weights and loads, however this mix has not been modelled (beyond HGV / LGV split) and so the BEIS 2017 average HGV and LGV factors have been used, including average load.
Transport mode split
The HHASAM v2.0, LASAM v4.2 and HEM-CM v1.14 models have been used to forecast the transport mode split. The distance travelled for passenger journeys by public transport is split between a ‘final leg’ and a ‘feed-up leg’, for example a journey starting outside London and arriving to the Airport by London Underground will have a feed-up leg by rail and a final leg by London Underground. Final leg modes include coach or bus, Heathrow Connect, Elizabeth Line (Crossrail), Heathrow Express, London Underground and RailAir. Feed-up leg modes include rail and London Underground. Modelled mode and origin zone have been used to assign the most appropriate GHG emissions factor:
1) Taxi journeys from within London are assumed to be a proportion of black-cab
and regular taxi, as a reasonable worst case compared to an average taxi GHG
emissions factor
2) Bus journeys from within London have been assigned a London-specific GHG
emissions factor, instead of the national GHG emissions factor.
Fuel efficiency UK Government Conversion Factors for Company Reporting (BEIS, August 2017) are used as they represent the current baseline year and the best available knowledge at the time of the assessment. For cars and LGVs, the future uptake of electric vehicles forecasted by the Department for Transport (DfT) has been used. The proportion of vehicle kilometres using petrol, diesel or electricity has been based on WebTAG table A1.3.9 (DfT, May 2018). This is more representative that just applying the baseline GHG emissions factor to the modelled transport activities.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
4. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS
4.1.1 The assumptions adopted in the assessment are based on the need to represent a
reasonable worst case assessment. Table 9.4.3 presents the assumptions
adopted for all scenarios. Where assumptions are specific to one scenario, this is
clarified in Table 9.4.3.
Table 9.4.3: Assumptions for reasonable worst case assessment of GHG emissions from surface access
Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case
Transport models based on: passenger numbers, colleague numbers, distances travelled, cargo and other goods, transport mode split
Where references are made to a methodology that is detailed in another chapter of the PEIR, please see these chapters for details of assumptions made to represent reasonable worst case. Activities for each non-modelled intermediate year between 2017 and 2040 have been linearly interpolated, and activities between 2040 and 2050 have been assumed to be identical to 2040 levels.
Passenger numbers The proportion of airside and landside transfers assumed in the LASAM model for the future baseline scenario was lower (between 23% and 27%) than in the DCO Project scenarios (32%). To enable a meaningful comparison between scenarios, passenger demand in the future baseline scenario has been scaled to the same proportion of transfers as the DCO Project scenarios. Emissions for the DCO Project scenarios have been assumed equal to the future baseline up to 2021, as the ATM early release would start in 2022 in the DCO Project scenarios. Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario between 2022 and 2025, as the further environmental measures are assumed in the models from 2027 onwards. Other (masterplan design) environmental measures which start earlier are assumed in both scenarios.
Colleague numbers Modelled average weekday colleague movements are scaled to annual using an annualization factor of 342. This assumes the average weekday is representative for the whole year. Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario up to 2025, as the further environmental measures are assumed in the models from 2027 onwards. Other (masterplan) environmental measures which start earlier are assumed in both scenarios.
Cargo and other goods
Emissions for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario have been assumed equal to the DCO Project with mitigation scenario up to 2027, as the DCO Project design interventions on the road network are assumed to be implemented and affect model results from 2027 onwards. Activities for the DCO Project without mitigation scenario between 2028 and 2050 have been assumed to grow at the same rate as ATMs.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case
Transport mode split All feed up journeys (where applicable) are assumed to take place using one transport mode only for the whole distance from their origin to the relevant transport interchange, where the final leg starts (interchange to Airport). The same applies for journey starting from the Airport (final leg from Airport to interchange, feed up leg from interchange to destination).
Fuel efficiency and fuel type
As a reasonable worst case, it has been assumed that there are no future fuel efficiency improvements (litres per km), or improvements to fuel GHG intensity (carbon dioxide equivalent – CO2e per litre) for diesel or petrol vehicles. As future projections have high uncertainty associated with them, GHG emissions factors for all transport modes except cars and LGVs have been kept equal to their 2017 values. This assumption is likely to result in an overestimate of emissions and is therefore considered worst-case.
The WebTAG table A1.3.9 (DfT, 2018) maintains 100% diesel fuel for ‘ordinary goods vehicles’ (OGVs) and does not anticipate any introduction of electric vehicles. It has been assumed that this also applies for HGVs. Projected changes in future emissions from cars and LGVs due to uptake of
electric vehicles have been taken into account as detailed in Section 3: Quantification methodology.
Masterplan environmental measures
As previously described in Section 1: Introduction, the DCO Project without mitigation scenario does include environmental measures that are an inherent component of the design and cannot be disaggregated in terms of carbon benefit. Both the DCO Project without mitigation and the DCO Project with mitigation scenarios assume transport infrastructure would be provided in line with the DCO Project design and phasing (described in Chapter 6: DCO Project description), including new motorway junctions, new roads and changes in parking provision. Exceptions to this are the Southern Road Tunnel and reduction of parking provision to Heathrow colleagues in 2040, which are not included in the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. In all scenarios it has been assumed that Western Rail and Southern Rail will not be in operation. This is because their delivery sits beyond the control of Heathrow and therefore cannot be built into any assessment work for the DCO Project at this stage. Other planned public transport projects not forming part of the DCO Project have been included in both scenarios. These include HS2 Stage 1, the Elizabeth Line and increases in services on the Piccadilly Line.
Further environmental measures
The DCO Project with mitigation scenario includes further measures which are part of the Surface Access Proposals. Although the Proposals are not a fixed set of environmental measures but a ‘toolbox’ which would be applied in response to ongoing monitoring of travel to the Airport, a specified set of environmental measures has informed the transport models used for this quantification. These are to be considered indicative and subject to change. Further environmental measures assumed in the DCO Project with mitigation scenario include:
1) Improved bus and coach services
2) Reduced fares on Heathrow Express services
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-8 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case
3) Flat discount on public transport fares for colleagues
4) Vehicle access charges
5) Measures to reduce the proportion of empty taxi return trips
6) Reduction in parking provision for colleagues in 2040
7) Opening of the Southern Road Tunnel. These measures are not included in the DCO Project without mitigation scenario. Further details of the environmental measures assumed in the transport models are provided in the PTIR, Volume 1, Chapter 5.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-9 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5. QUANTIFICATION RESULTS
5.1.1 This section presents the estimated GHG emissions from the surface access
activities detailed in Section 2: Scope as:
1. Total emissions from all surface access activities
2. Emissions from each activity (passenger, colleague and freight transport).
5.1.2 In each case the results are presented for the scenarios of:
1. Future baseline
2. DCO Project without mitigation
3. DCO Project with mitigation.
5.1.3 The results are also tabulated to present total annual emissions for core and
additional assessment years
5.1.4 Appendix 9.4: Carbon and greenhouse gases – Surface access, Annex A
contains a list of GHG emissions factors used and Appendix 9.4, Annex B
contains detailed results by activity, year and scenario.
5.1 Total surface access emissions
5.1.1 Graphic 9.4.1 shows the total GHG emissions for the three scenarios. As annual
passenger emissions dominate (in the region of 1 million tonnes, as opposed to
around 100 thousand tonnes for freight or colleagues), the overall emissions are
higher for both the DCO Project with mitigation and the DCO Project without
mitigation scenarios compared to the future baseline scenario.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-10 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.4.1: Total GHG emissions from surface access
5.1.2 Table 9.4.4 shows the annual GHG emissions from all transport combined
(colleagues, freight and passengers) in million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
(MtCO2e) for key milestone years as described in Chapter 9: Carbon and
greenhouse gases, Section 9.4, with the year of maximum GHG emissions for
each scenario presented.
Table 9.4.4: Annual GHG emissions from surface access
Scenario
Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Base year
First year of assessment
Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity
First full year of third
runway operations
Year of minimum
ANPS capacity
Year of maximum capacity
Year of maximum
GHG emissions
2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)
Future baseline
0.77 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.95
(2022)
DCO Project without mitigation
0.77 0.97 0.97 1.03 1.19 1.26 1.26
(2050)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-11 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Scenario
Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Base year
First year of assessment
Year of maximum release of first phase of capacity
First full year of third
runway operations
Year of minimum
ANPS capacity
Year of maximum capacity
Year of maximum
GHG emissions
2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)
DCO Project with mitigation
0.77 0.97 0.97 0.96 1.07 1.08 1.08
(2050)
Graphic 9.4.2: Cumulative GHG emissions from surface access between 2022 and 2050
5.1.3 Graphic 9.4.2 shows the cumulative emissions for each scenario (total from 2022
to 2050), showing the increase of the DCO Project with mitigation scenario
compared to the future baseline scenario, but also the reduction that further
environmental measures bring from the DCO Project without mitigation scenario.
5.1.4 Graphic 9.4.3, Graphic 9.4.4 and Graphic 9.4.5 show the total GHG emissions
split by passengers, colleagues and freight, for each scenario. All Graphics show
the dominance of passenger emissions over all other types.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-12 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.4.3: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (Future baseline)
Graphic 9.4.4: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project without mitigation)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-13 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.4.5: GHG emissions from surface access by activity (DCO Project with mitigation)
5.2 Passengers
5.2.1 Passenger emissions have been modelled for the three scenarios. The future
baseline scenario is the lowest emission scenario. The DCO Project with
mitigation scenario reduces cumulative emissions by 11% compared to the DCO
Project without mitigation scenario.
5.2.2 Emissions from passenger travel are by far the greatest contribution to total
surface access GHG emissions. The emissions are directly linked to the number of
passengers travelling, and therefore the increase of passenger numbers in both
DCO Project scenarios lead to higher emissions compared to a future baseline
scenario.
5.2.3 As explained in Table 9.4.3, further environmental measures are included in the
model assumptions for the DCO Project with mitigation scenario, such as lower
fares for the Heathrow Express and an airport access charge for private vehicles.
Together, these measures lead to increased uptake of public transport over private
car and taxi use, and lower GHG emissions.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-14 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5.3 Colleagues
5.3.1 Emissions from colleague travel have been modelled for the three scenarios, The
DCO Project with mitigation scenario significantly reduces expected emissions to
below future baseline levels.
5.3.2 Both DCO Project scenarios show lower greenhouse gas emissions than the
future baseline scenario due to a reduction in car use and modal shift to public
transport. In the DCO Project without mitigation scenario the modal shift is driven
mainly by a reduction in number of parking spaces in the DCO Project design.
Further environmental measures in the Surface Access Proposals would further
increase the shift to public transport in the DCO Project with mitigation scenario
and lower emissions further.
5.3.3 The future baseline scenario shows small variations in overall GHG emissions
from colleague transport movements. The forecasted increase in colleague
numbers and number of movements is offset by the forecasted uptake of electric
vehicles in the national average car fleet composition.
5.4 Freight
5.4.1 Emissions from surface freight transport have been modelled for the three
scenarios.
5.4.2 The DCO Project with mitigation scenario shows the anticipated freight
consolidation measures in the Surface Access Proposals are likely to be
effective at reducing GHG emissions, even though there are more ATMs with a
third runway.
5.4.3 Between 2022 and 2029, GHG emissions are higher in both DCO Project
scenarios than in the future baseline scenario due to the proposed increase in
ATMs both before and after opening of the third runway.
5.4.4 All scenarios see a reduction in emissions from 2040 onwards due to the
forecasted uptake of electric LGVs in the national average fleet composition. Note
that HGVs are not anticipated to shift to electric in the assessment.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4-15 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
6. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Table 9.4.5: Glossary of terms used in the Carbon and GHG assessment from surface access
Term Definition
ATM Air transport movement
BEIS Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent
DfT Department for Transport
ES Environmental statement
GHG Greenhouse gases
HEM-CM Heathrow Employee Mode Choice Model
HGV Heavy goods vehicle
HHASAM Heathrow Highway Assignment and Surface Access Model
kgCO2e Kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent
LASAM London Airports Surface Access Model
LGV Light goods vehicle
OGV Ordinary goods vehicle
PASSENGER KM Unit of transport activity used to quantify GHG emissions - a kilometre travelled by a passenger using a defined mode of transport.
PEIR Preliminary Environmental Information Report
PTIR Preliminary Transport Information Report
UK United Kingdom
VEHICLE KM Unit of transport activity used to quantify GHG emissions - a kilometre travelled by single vehicle.
WebTAG Web-based Transport Analysis Guidance
WTT Well-to-tank (referring to emissions during the fuel supply chain)
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Appendix 9.4-16 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Full text reference In-text reference
Airports Commission. (July 2015). Business Case and Sustainability Assessment – Heathrow Airport Northwest Runway. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/440315/business-case-and-sustainability-assessment.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Airports Commission, 2015
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (August 2017). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2017. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2017 [Accessed 13 February 2019].
BEIS, August 2017
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (January 2018). Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2017. [online]. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/671187/Updated_energy_and_emissions_projections_2017.pdf [Accessed 13 February 2019].
BEIS, January 2018
Department for Transport (DfT). (May 2018). Transport Analysis Guidance, WebTAG A1.3.9: Proportions of vehicle kilometres by fuel type. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag [Accessed 13 February 2019].
DfT, 2018
Greater London Authority. (March 2018). Mayor’s Transport Strategy. [online]. Available at: https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/transport/green-transport [Accessed 13 February 2019].
Greater London Authority, March 2018
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4. Annex A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
ANNEX A SURFACE ACCESS GHG EMISSIONS FACTORS
Table 9.4.6: Surface access GHG emissions factors
Mode Year Factor
Name
Factor
(including
WTT1)
Factor
Unit
Source Assumptions
Bus 2017
to
2050
Local bus
(not London)
0.15184 kgCO2e per
passenger.
km
BEIS UK
Government
GHG
Conversion
Factors for
Company
Reporting,
v1.0, 2017
Assumes no
improvement / shift
to electric from
2017
Car 2017 Car 0.227842 kgCO2e per
km
Based on year-
specific WebTAG
proportion of
electric, diesel,
petrol
Car 2022 Car 0.225221
Car 2023 Car 0.224192
Car 2024 Car 0.222977
Car 2025 Car 0.221721
Car 2026 Car 0.220439
Car 2027 Car 0.219131
Car 2028 Car 0.217752
Car 2029 Car 0.21632
Car 2030 Car 0.214837
Car 2031 Car 0.213427
Car 2032 Car 0.212096
Car 2033 Car 0.210851
Car 2034 Car 0.209667
Car 2035 Car 0.208526
Car 2036 Car 0.20745
Car 2037 Car 0.206388
Car 2038 Car 0.205357
Car 2039 Car 0.204325
Car 2040 Car 0.203282
Car 2041 Car 0.202023
Car 2042 Car 0.200902
1 Well-to-tank emissions, referring to GHG emissions resulting from the fuel supply chain from oil extraction to delivery to a vehicle.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4. Annex A2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Mode Year Factor
Name
Factor
(including
WTT1)
Factor
Unit
Source Assumptions
Car 2043 Car 0.199904
Car 2044 Car 0.199012
Car 2045 Car 0.198205
Car 2046 Car 0.197477
Car 2047 Car 0.196834
Car 2048 Car 0.196267
Car 2049 Car 0.195769
Car 2050 Car 0.195323
Coach 2017
to
2050
Coach 0.03439 kgCO2e per
passenger.
km
Assumes no
improvement / shift
to electric from
2017
HGV 2017
to
2050
All HGVs,
average
laden
1.0794 kgCO2e per
km
London Bus 2017
to
2050
Local London
bus
0.09007 kgCO2e per
passenger.
km
Motorbike 2017
to
2050
Average 0.14776 kgCO2e per
km
Rail 2017
to
2050
National rail 0.05599 kgCO2e per
passenger.
km
Taxi 2017
to
2050
Regular taxi 0.27073 kgCO2e per
km
Black cab 2017
to
2050
Black cab +
regular taxi
0.295892 kgCO2e per
km
Assumes no
improvement / shift
to electric.
20% licensed
vehicles are
traditional taxi
(Black Cab) in
London in 2017
(DfT Taxi and
Private Hire Vehicle
Statistics: England
2017)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4. Annex A3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Mode Year Factor
Name
Factor
(including
WTT1)
Factor
Unit
Source Assumptions
Underground 2017
to
2050
London
Underground
0.05419 kgCO2e per
passenger.
km
Assumes no
improvement from
2017
Van 2017 Van 0.319033 kgCO2e per
km
Based on year-
specific WebTAG
proportion of
electric, diesel,
petrol
Van 2022 Van 0.318642
Van 2023 Van 0.318111
Van 2024 Van 0.317215
Van 2025 Van 0.315692
Van 2026 Van 0.314239
Van 2027 Van 0.312571
Van 2028 Van 0.310827
Van 2029 Van 0.308853
Van 2030 Van 0.306602
Van 2031 Van 0.304405
Van 2032 Van 0.302188
Van 2033 Van 0.299966
Van 2034 Van 0.297692
Van 2035 Van 0.295422
Van 2036 Van 0.29325
Van 2037 Van 0.291106
Van 2038 Van 0.289008
Van 2039 Van 0.286959
Van 2040 Van 0.284973
Van 2041 Van 0.282947
Van 2042 Van 0.280877
Van 2043 Van 0.278799
Van 2044 Van 0.276719
Van 2045 Van 0.274639
Van 2046 Van 0.272559
Van 2047 Van 0.270481
Van 2048 Van 0.268438
Van 2049 Van 0.26642
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4. Annex A4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Mode Year Factor
Name
Factor
(including
WTT1)
Factor
Unit
Source Assumptions
Van 2050 Van 0.264433
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4 Annex B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
ANNEX B SURFACE ACCESS FULL RESULTS TABLE
Table 9.4.7: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Future baseline
Year Passengers Colleagues Freight TOTAL
2022 0.74 0.16 0.05 0.95
2023 0.74 0.16 0.05 0.95
2024 0.73 0.16 0.05 0.94
2025 0.72 0.16 0.05 0.94
2026 0.72 0.16 0.05 0.93
2027 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.93
2028 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.93
2029 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.93
2030 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.92
2031 0.71 0.16 0.05 0.92
2032 0.71 0.16 0.06 0.92
2033 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92
2034 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92
2035 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92
2036 0.70 0.16 0.06 0.92
2037 0.70 0.17 0.06 0.92
2038 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.92
2039 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2040 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2041 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2042 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2043 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2044 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2045 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2046 0.69 0.17 0.06 0.91
2047 0.69 0.16 0.06 0.91
2048 0.69 0.16 0.05 0.91
2049 0.69 0.16 0.05 0.91
2050 0.69 0.16 0.05 0.91
Cumulative Total 20.36 4.74 1.60 26.69
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4 Annex B2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.4.8: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year Passengers Colleagues Freight TOTAL
2022 0.75 0.15 0.05 0.95
2023 0.76 0.15 0.05 0.96
2024 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.96
2025 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.97
2026 0.80 0.14 0.06 1.00
2027 0.83 0.14 0.06 1.03
2028 0.87 0.13 0.07 1.07
2029 0.90 0.13 0.07 1.10
2030 0.94 0.13 0.07 1.14
2031 0.94 0.13 0.08 1.15
2032 0.95 0.13 0.08 1.16
2033 0.96 0.13 0.08 1.17
2034 0.97 0.12 0.08 1.18
2035 0.98 0.12 0.08 1.19
2036 0.99 0.12 0.08 1.20
2037 1.00 0.12 0.08 1.21
2038 1.01 0.12 0.08 1.22
2039 1.02 0.12 0.08 1.22
2040 1.03 0.12 0.08 1.23
2041 1.03 0.12 0.08 1.24
2042 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24
2043 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24
2044 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24
2045 1.04 0.12 0.08 1.24
2046 1.05 0.12 0.08 1.25
2047 1.05 0.12 0.08 1.25
2048 1.06 0.12 0.08 1.25
2049 1.06 0.12 0.08 1.26
2050 1.06 0.12 0.08 1.26
Cumulative Total 27.73 3.74 2.11 33.57
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.4 – Surface access
Appendix 9.4 Annex B3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Table 9.4.9: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project with mitigation)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
DCO Project with mitigation
Year Passengers Colleagues Freight TOTAL
2022 0.75 0.15 0.05 0.95
2023 0.76 0.15 0.05 0.96
2024 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.96
2025 0.76 0.15 0.06 0.97
2026 0.77 0.14 0.06 0.97
2027 0.77 0.13 0.06 0.96
2028 0.80 0.12 0.06 0.98
2029 0.83 0.11 0.06 1.00
2030 0.87 0.10 0.05 1.02
2031 0.88 0.10 0.05 1.03
2032 0.89 0.10 0.05 1.04
2033 0.90 0.10 0.05 1.05
2034 0.91 0.10 0.05 1.06
2035 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.07
2036 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.07
2037 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06
2038 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06
2039 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05
2040 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05
2041 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05
2042 0.91 0.09 0.05 1.05
2043 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.05
2044 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.05
2045 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06
2046 0.92 0.09 0.05 1.06
2047 0.93 0.09 0.05 1.06
2048 0.93 0.09 0.05 1.07
2049 0.93 0.09 0.05 1.07
2050 0.94 0.09 0.05 1.08
Cumulative Total 25.38 3.01 1.54 29.92
APPENDICES
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
APPENDIX 9.5
AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND GROUND OPERATIONS
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
CONTENTS
1. Introduction 1
2. Scope 2
3. Quantification methodology 3
3.1 GHG emissions quantification 3
4. Assumptions and limitations 7
5. Quantification results 9
5.2 Total Airport buildings and ground operations emissions 9
6. Glossary of terms 12
7. Bibliography 13
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 9.5.1: Detailed methodology 4 Table 9.5.2: Assumptions for reasonable worst-case assessment of Airport buildings and ground operations 7 Table 9.5.3: Limitations of Airport buildings and ground operations assessment 8 Table 9.5.4: Annual GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations 10 Table 9.5.5: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG assessment from Airport buildings and operations 12 Table 9.5.6: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline) 1 Table 9.5.7: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (future baseline) 2 Table 9.5.8: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 3 Table 9.5.9: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation) 4 Table 9.5.10: GHG emission factors used in the energy model 1 Table 9.5.11: GHG emission factors used for the water demand model 1 Table 9.5.12: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from WRATE (2018) 2 Table 9.5.13: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2015) 5
TABLE OF GRAPHICS
Graphic 9.5.1: Total GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations 9 Graphic 9.5.2: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (future baseline) 10 Graphic 9.5.3: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (DCO Project without mitigation) 11
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1.1 This Appendix presents the quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for
Airport buildings and ground operations. The GHG emissions across this scope
come from energy use, treatment and disposal of waste arisings, and the
emissions from water use and waste water effluent treatment. Across these topics
this Appendix covers:
1. Assessment scope
2. Quantification methodology
3. Assumptions and limitations
4. GHG quantification results.
1.1.2 It presents GHG emissions based on two scenarios that are modelled for the
period 2022 to 2050:
1. Future baseline: Airport continues to be capped at 480,000 Air Transport
Movements (ATMs) with two runways
2. DCO Project without mitigation: three runway scenario, without
environmental measures other than those which are part of the physical
infrastructure of the preferred masterplan.
1.1.3 A further scenario, the ‘DCO Project with mitigation’, as required by the Airports
National Policy Statement (ANPS), has not been reported quantitively for this
Preliminary Environmental Information Report (PEIR) assessment.
1.1.4 Environmental measures are identified and presented in Chapter 9: Carbon and
greenhouse gases for comment and feedback (although at this stage of the
Project it has not been possible to assess their effects). The DCO Project with
mitigation will be fully assessed and reported in the Environmental Statement
(ES).
1.1.5 This Appendix does not provide an assessment of the likely significant effects of
GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations. A preliminary
assessment of likely significant effects aggregating GHG emissions from all sub-
aspects is included in Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
2. SCOPE
2.1.1 The GHG emissions across this scope come from energy use, treatment and
disposal of waste arisings, and the emissions from water use and waste water
effluent treatment.
2.1.2 Energy GHG emissions arise from electricity, natural gas, biomass, and
diesel/petrol consumption. This energy is consumed in buildings and Airport
infrastructure, providing heating, cooling, lighting and power needs, plus fuelling
airside land vehicles.
2.1.3 Waste GHG emissions arise from Airport waste disposal and treatment, including
waste arisings from terminals, aircraft, hotels, cargo, catering and other associated
businesses.
2.1.4 Water GHG emissions arise from the consumption of water (i.e. potable water
supply, including treatment and distribution) and water effluent treatment.
2.1.5 It is noted that the scope of the PEIR assessment is broader than the scope of
Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint in the case of the water and waste
components. The PEIR assessment includes operations over which Heathrow
does not have direct control, such as operations by third-party businesses. As
Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint adopts the GHG Protocol ‘Operational Control’
approach it does not report these third-party operations.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-3 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
3. QUANTIFICATION METHODOLOGY
3.1 GHG emissions quantification
3.1.1 The Airport buildings and ground operations emissions have been quantified using
spreadsheet models developed independently for energy, waste and water. These
are further explained in Table 9.5.1.
3.1.2 Each model follows the quantification methodology as described in Chapter 7 of
the Heathrow EIA Scoping Report (Heathrow, May 2018). For Airport buildings
and ground operations, the Scoping Report specifically states the following:
Operational emissions will be quantified for all the activities for which reasonable data or
assumptions can be made.
The calculations will take an amount of activity (for example, total electricity consumed, or
waste generated) and multiply this by an appropriate emission factor.
Emissions factors which best represent the available knowledge at the time of the
assessment will be selected and, where appropriate, will represent the predicted emission
rates for the year of the assessment considered. For example, the carbon intensity of UK
grid electricity (gCO2e/kWh) will depend on the projected rate of decarbonisation over
time.
3.1.3 Parameters important to the GHG emission quantifications for energy, water and
waste can be summarised as follows:
1. Energy: Airport buildings, infrastructure and ground operations use energy.
Different fuel and electricity services are used by the Airport to meet this
need. To complete the GHG quantification, it is necessary to estimate how
much energy is used, and match this with the fuel and electricity sources
that deliver this. Different fuel and electricity sources have different carbon
intensities. The fuels used by Airport operations include biomass, natural
gas and diesel/petrol
2. Waste: To complete the GHG quantification for waste it was important to
consider the quantity of waste arisings, the composition of these arisings,
and the treatment and disposal methods used. Sources of waste include
Airport terminals, hotels, cargo, catering and other related businesses
3. Water: GHG emissions for Airport water use are determined by estimating
water demand composition volumes (i.e. allowing for both potable and non-
potable uses) and applying water supply GHG emissions intensity factors to
these. A similar calculation is undertaken for water treatment based on the
estimated volume of water effluent arising from Airport operations.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
3.1.4 Table 9.5.1 provides more detail on the Airport buildings and ground operations
methodology.
Table 9.5.1: Detailed methodology
Emissions model Methodology description
Energy Energy related GHG emissions include fuel and electricity consumed in the
Airport buildings and ground operations, including that used by airside
vehicles.
For energy demand, approximate and average efficiency baselines,
developed using 2017 energy consumption data and recent studies and
analysis, are used to represent varied populations and to estimate future
demands.
Passenger (PAX) and ATM data are used to obtain kWh/PAX (per
passenger) and kWh/ATM (per ATM) energy demands of terminal areas
and services.
Different inputs were used to test different scenarios (i.e. future baseline and DCO Project without mitigation). The model parameters for each scenario differ in terms of passenger and ATM forecasts as well as level of ambition in energy reduction. This will be explored further in the ES to accommodate the requirement in the ANPS to assess the difference between with and without mitigation scenarios. A market-based carbon factor of zero is used to reflect purchase of
renewable electricity. For diesel and petrol, GHG emission factors from the
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) (BEIS, 2017)
have been used. Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) 2012 GHG
emission factors have been used for other fuel types. These GHG emission
factors are presented in Annex B.
The calculation used to determine energy-related GHG emissions is: Equation 1: Energy emissions
F x GHGF = CO2e where F = Fuel consumption (i.e. oil / biomass / gas / electricity / diesel / petrol in kWh) GHGF = GHG emission factor for fuel type CO2e = GHG emissions
Waste The GHG emissions for waste disposal and treatment are based on the
proposed Airport waste strategy and the waste scenario model
underpinning this. This model multiplied the weight of arisings sent to each
end treatment route (i.e. composting, incineration, etc.), by the relevant
emission factor from WRATE (The Waste and Resources Assessment Tool
for the Environment, 2018) and from the journal Resources, Conservation
and Recycling (2015). These GHG emission factors are presented in Annex
B. The WRATE GHG emission factors have been selected as more
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Emissions model Methodology description
representative of reasonable worst case assumptions than the BEIS 2017
GHG emission factors adopted in Heathrow’s annual carbon footprint.
Detailed assumptions within the waste model are set out in Chapter 20:
Waste.
The model has used actual and calculated arisings for 2017 to generate
benchmarks such as waste arisings per passenger (from terminals and
airlines), per bedroom (for hotels) or per square metre floor area (for cargo,
catering and other associated businesses).
Waste arisings from terminal buildings and airlines have been increased in
proportion to predicted passenger numbers associated with the future
baseline and DCO Project without mitigation scenario.
The DCO Project without mitigation scenario assumes the worst case of no further waste prevention or improvements in recycling beyond current committed programmes. It has also incorporated modest waste prevention improvements in line with historic trends, and new infrastructure in the form of further cabin waste facilities and a new Resource Recovery Centre, together with enhanced re-use and recycling within terminals. The calculation used to determine waste-related GHG emissions is: Equation 2: Waste treatment emissions
ToW x GHGF = CO2e where ToW= Tonnes of waste at end treatment (recycling, composting, energy etc.) GHGF = GHG emission factor for end treatment CO2e = GHG emissions
Water The water use and water effluent treatment model accounts for GHG
emissions relating to water use at the Airport in buildings, for infrastructure,
and as required by operations. The model includes demand of both potable
and non-potable water, and also makes allowances for water efficiency and
leakage losses.
The model estimates the future water demand scenarios based on
passenger forecast numbers and estimated phasing of new terminal and
existing terminal reconfiguration.
The scenarios represented in the water model reflect the water strategy
outlined in Appendix 20.1: Draft Resource Management Plan. The
models were developed to address possible future water demand with
respect to choices on sources of non-potable supplies, target water
efficiency measures for fixtures and fittings, and leakage reduction activities.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Emissions model Methodology description
The GHG emissions factors for water supply and water effluent treatment
have been obtained from BEIS, (2017). These GHG emission factors are
presented in Annex B.
The calculations used to determine water-related GHG emissions are: Equation 3: Water demand and treatment emissions
WS x CF = CO2e where WS= Water supply CF = GHG factor for water supply CO2e = GHG emissions And WT x CF = CO2e where WT= Water treatment CF = GHG emission factor for water treatment CO2e = GHG emissions
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-7 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
4. ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS
4.1.1 The assumptions adopted in the assessment are based on the need to represent a
reasonable worst-case assessment. Table 9.5.2 presents selected headline
assumptions used in the assessment of the DCO Project without mitigation
scenario.
Table 9.5.2: Assumptions for reasonable worst-case assessment of Airport buildings and ground operations
Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the without mitigation scenario
Passenger numbers Passenger forecasts are provided for 2026, 2027, 2030, 2036, 2040 and 2050. For intermediate years, passenger numbers are based on a linear relationship between years.
Air transport movements ATM forecasts are provided for 2026, 2027, 2030, 2036, 2040 and 2050. For intermediate years flight numbers are based on a linear relationship between years.
Energy For energy use, approximate and average efficiency benchmarks,
developed using 2017 energy consumption data and recent studies and
analysis, are used to establish appropriate benchmarks for estimating
future energy use. These benchmarks represent all energy used, regulated
and unregulated, by both Heathrow and third parties.
Building energy demands are assumed to increase proportionally with
passengers. Ground operations and airside transport activities are
assumed to increase proportionally with the number of ATMs.
It is assumed that current shares of energy demand or consumption will
remain constant. For example, the current proportions of energy use by
Heathrow, compared with energy use by third parties, has been assumed
to remain constant over the study period. The distribution of passengers
across the terminals is also assumed to remain constant while passenger
number increase (except in the instance of new terminals coming on line).
Waste The assessment of waste arisings is related to passenger numbers and
improvements that are expected through interventions that minimise waste
and increase recycling rates. However, these are limited to current
committed programmes and modest waste prevention improvements in line
with historic trends.
In practice actual future rates may vary as they are partially dependent on
passenger actions to participate in waste and resource initiatives, and
national and international drivers to improve overall resource efficiency and
shifts to a circular economy.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-8 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Project parameter Assumption adopted to represent reasonable worst case in the without mitigation scenario
Water The assessment has assumed that all non-potable demands will be met by
on-site non-potable water sources.
Future use of borehole water at the Airport was based on the existing
abstraction license held by Heathrow. It was assumed that the license
would remain valid and abstraction at required rates would be possible.
Greywater supplies are based on a micro-component split of current and
future water uses, and the estimated volumes of water available, and
suited, for greywater reuse (for example hand basins, showers, etc).
4.1.2 Table 9.5.3 covers the limitations for each model. This includes limitations
pertaining to parameters such as simplifications in calculation approach, scope
gaps, and data quality (e.g. age, quality, type etc.).
Table 9.5.3: Limitations of Airport buildings and ground operations assessment
Project parameter Limitations
Energy The heating, cooling and power demands have been estimated using Heathrow
energy benchmarks based on passenger numbers (kWh/PAX). A more
sophisticated methodology would incorporate existing and future terminal areas
to develop kWh/m2 benchmarks specific for Heathrow, which may be more
representative of building energy performance in use. The calculation approach
may be revised to incorporate floor area estimates for ES.
Waste
The approach to waste forecasting is subject to uncertainties around future
resource efficiency improvements. Waste composition is based on available
2013 data and is subject to unpredictable changes over time due to consumption
habits that may change across Heathrow and third parties.
Recycling and diversion performance is dependent upon passenger and retailer
actions and is not all within Heathrow’s control. Rates of change and quantities
of individual waste streams may differ from those applied in the model.
Limitations relating to the waste model are discussed in Appendix 20.3
Water The on-site infrastructure design has not been fully developed at this stage. The
capital expenditure and operational expenditure carbon footprint of planned
future Airport infrastructure for on-site water treatment systems has not been
fixed. Emissions arising from the operations of such facilities have yet to be fully
accounted for in the emissions model.
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-9 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5. QUANTIFICATION RESULTS
5.1.1 The results are presented for the scope outlined in Section 2 as total GHG
emissions from all activities and phases. In each case the results are presented for
the scenarios of:
1. Future baseline
2. DCO Project without mitigation.
5.1.2 The results are also tabulated to present total annual emissions for core and
additional assessment years.
5.2 Total Airport buildings and ground operations emissions
5.2.1 Graphic 9.5.1 shows the total GHG emissions for both scenarios (future baseline
and DCO Project without mitigation). It can be seen that the DCO Project without
mitigation scenario has greater annual emissions than the future baseline scenario
in each year of the study period. It follows that cumulatively it also has a greater
emission profile of 2.4 MtCO2e compared with 1.7 MtCO2e respectively.
Graphic 9.5.1: Total GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-10 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
5.2.2 Table 9.5.4 shows the annual GHG emissions from all Airport buildings and
ground operations for core and additional assessment years as described in
Chapter 9: Carbon and greenhouse gases, Section 9.4: Scope of the
assessment, with the year of maximum GHG emissions for each scenario
presented.
Table 9.5.4: Annual GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations
Scenario
Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Base year
First year of assessment
Year of maximum release of
first phase of capacity
First full year of third
runway operations
Year of minimum
ANPS capacity
Year of maximum capacity
Year of maximum
GHG emissions
2017 2022 2025 2027 2035 2050 (variable)
Future baseline 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.09
(2022)
DCO Project without mitigation
0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.10
(2027)
5.2.3 Graphic 9.5.2 and Graphic 9.5.3 show the total GHG emissions split by energy,
waste, and water for each scenario.
Graphic 9.5.2: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (future baseline)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-11 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Graphic 9.5.3: GHG emissions from Airport buildings and ground operations by activity (DCO Project without mitigation)
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-12 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
6. GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Table 9.5.5: Glossary of terms used in the carbon and GHG assessment from Airport buildings and operations
Term Definition
ANPS Airports National Policy Statement
ATM Air transport movement
BEIS Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
CAPEX Capital expenditure
Carbon Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions
Carbon credit A permit which allows a country or organization to emit a certain amount of carbon dioxide (or an equivalent amount of other greenhouse gases) and which can be traded if the full allowance is not used
CO2 Carbon dioxide
CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent
EIA Environmental impact assessment
ES Environmental statement
GHG Greenhouse gases
kgCO2e Kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent
MtCO2 Million tonnes of carbon dioxide
OPEX Operational expenditure
PAX Number of passengers
PEIR Preliminary Environmental Information Report
UK United Kingdom
WRATE The Water and Resources Assessment Tool for the Environment
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5-13 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Full text reference In-text reference
Heathrow. (May 2018). Airport Expansion EIA Scoping Report Volume 1 Main Report, Section 7.
Heathrow, May 2018
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (2017). BEIS Greenhouse gas reporting: Conversion factors 2017. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhous
e-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2017 [Accessed 21 February 2019].
BEIS, 2017
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS). (June 2018). Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2018. [online]. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhous
e-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2018 [Accessed 21 February 2018]
BEIS, 2018
Waste and Resources Assessment Tool for the Environment. (2018). UK: Golder Associates Ltd.
Waste and Resources Assessment Tool for the Environment, 2018
APPENDICES
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex A1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Classification: Confidential
ANNEX A AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND GROUND OPERATIONS FULL RESULTS TABLE
Table 9.5.6: Annual GHG emissions (future baseline)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Future baseline
Year Energy Waste treatment Water demand and
treatment TOTAL
2022 0.062 0.021 0.002 0.085
2023 0.061 0.021 0.002 0.084
2024 0.061 0.021 0.002 0.084
2025 0.061 0.021 0.002 0.084
2026 0.057 0.021 0.002 0.080
2027 0.056 0.021 0.002 0.079
2028 0.055 0.021 0.002 0.078
2029 0.053 0.021 0.002 0.076
2030 0.039 0.021 0.002 0.062
2031 0.037 0.021 0.003 0.061
2032 0.036 0.021 0.003 0.060
2033 0.034 0.022 0.003 0.059
2034 0.033 0.022 0.003 0.058
2035 0.030 0.022 0.003 0.055
2036 0.029 0.022 0.003 0.054
2037 0.028 0.022 0.003 0.053
2038 0.027 0.022 0.003 0.052
2039 0.026 0.022 0.003 0.051
2040 0.025 0.022 0.003 0.050
2041 0.024 0.022 0.003 0.049
2042 0.023 0.022 0.003 0.048
2043 0.022 0.022 0.003 0.047
2044 0.021 0.022 0.003 0.046
2045 0.021 0.022 0.003 0.046
2046 0.020 0.022 0.003 0.045
2047 0.019 0.022 0.003 0.044
2048 0.018 0.022 0.003 0.043
2049 0.017 0.022 0.003 0.042
2050 0.016 0.022 0.003 0.041
Cumulative Total 1.011 0.627 0.078 1.716
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex A2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Classification: Confidential
Table 9.5.7: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (future baseline)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
Future baseline
Year Traded Energy Non- traded Energy TOTAL
2022 0.003 0.003 0.062
2023 0.003 0.003 0.061
2024 0.003 0.003 0.061
2025 0.003 0.003 0.061
2026 0.003 0.003 0.057
2027 0.003 0.003 0.056
2028 0.003 0.003 0.055
2029 0.003 0.003 0.053
2030 0.001 0.003 0.039
2031 0.001 0.002 0.037
2032 0.001 0.002 0.036
2033 0.001 0.002 0.034
2034 0.001 0.002 0.033
2035 0.001 0.002 0.030
2036 0.001 0.002 0.029
2037 0.001 0.002 0.028
2038 0.001 0.002 0.027
2039 0.001 0.001 0.026
2040 0.001 0.001 0.025
2041 0.001 0.001 0.024
2042 0.001 0.001 0.023
2043 0.001 0.001 0.022
2044 0.001 0.001 0.021
2045 0.001 0.001 0.021
2046 0.001 0.001 0.020
2047 0.001 0.001 0.019
2048 0.001 0.001 0.018
2049 0.001 0.000 0.017
2050 0.001 0.000 0.016
Cumulative Total
0.047 0.054 1.011
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
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Table 9.5.8: Annual GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year Energy Waste treatment Water demand and
treatment TOTAL
2022 0.063 0.021 0.002 0.086
2023 0.064 0.021 0.003 0.088
2024 0.064 0.022 0.003 0.089
2025 0.064 0.022 0.003 0.089
2026 0.063 0.022 0.003 0.088
2027 0.068 0.028 0.003 0.099
2028 0.064 0.030 0.004 0.098
2029 0.064 0.031 0.004 0.099
2030 0.050 0.033 0.004 0.087
2031 0.050 0.034 0.004 0.088
2032 0.049 0.035 0.004 0.088
2033 0.048 0.036 0.004 0.088
2034 0.046 0.037 0.004 0.087
2035 0.045 0.037 0.004 0.086
2036 0.044 0.038 0.004 0.086
2037 0.042 0.038 0.004 0.084
2038 0.041 0.038 0.004 0.083
2039 0.038 0.038 0.004 0.080
2040 0.036 0.039 0.004 0.079
2041 0.035 0.039 0.004 0.078
2042 0.033 0.039 0.004 0.076
2043 0.032 0.039 0.004 0.075
2044 0.030 0.039 0.004 0.073
2045 0.029 0.039 0.004 0.072
2046 0.027 0.039 0.004 0.070
2047 0.026 0.040 0.004 0.070
2048 0.025 0.040 0.004 0.069
2049 0.023 0.040 0.004 0.067
2050 0.022 0.040 0.004 0.066
Cumulative Total
1.285 0.994 0.109 2.388
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex A4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
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Table 9.5.9: Annual traded and non-traded GHG emissions (DCO Project without mitigation)
Scenario Annual GHG Emissions (MtCO2e)
DCO Project without mitigation
Year Traded Energy Non- traded Energy TOTAL
2022 0.003 0.003 0.063
2023 0.003 0.003 0.064
2024 0.003 0.003 0.064
2025 0.003 0.003 0.064
2026 0.003 0.003 0.063
2027 0.003 0.004 0.068
2028 0.003 0.004 0.064
2029 0.003 0.004 0.064
2030 0.001 0.004 0.050
2031 0.001 0.003 0.050
2032 0.002 0.003 0.049
2033 0.002 0.003 0.048
2034 0.002 0.003 0.046
2035 0.002 0.003 0.045
2036 0.002 0.003 0.044
2037 0.002 0.003 0.042
2038 0.002 0.002 0.041
2039 0.001 0.002 0.038
2040 0.002 0.002 0.036
2041 0.002 0.002 0.035
2042 0.002 0.002 0.033
2043 0.002 0.002 0.032
2044 0.002 0.002 0.030
2045 0.002 0.001 0.029
2046 0.002 0.001 0.027
2047 0.002 0.001 0.026
2048 0.002 0.001 0.025
2049 0.002 0.001 0.023
2050 0.002 0.001 0.022
Cumulative Total
0.056 0.072 1.285
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex B1 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
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ANNEX B AIRPORT BUILDINGS AND GROUND OPERATIONS GHG EMISSION FACTORS
Energy
Table 9.5.10: GHG emission factors used in the energy model
Parameter Carbon factor
(kgCO2e/kWh)
Source
Electricity carbon factor (market-based) 0.000 Zero emissions from 2017 to reflect
purchase of green electricity
Natural gas carbon factor 0.216 SAP 2012 mains gas factor (3-year)
Fixed oil carbon factor 0.298 SAP 2012 heating oil factor (3-year)
Biomass carbon factor 0.016 SAP 2012 wood chips factor (3-year)
Diesel/petrol carbon factor 0.261 Department for Business, Energy &
Industrial Strategy Greenhouse gas
reporting: conversion factors 2017. From
the spreadsheet Conversion Factors
2017 Condensed Set
Water
GHG emission factors for water have been retrieved from the BEIS conversion factors
2018 (BEIS, 2018), tabs for Water Treatment and Water Demand.
Table 9.5.11: GHG emission factors used for the water demand model
Activity Type Unit kg CO2e
Water treatment Water treatment cubic metres 0.708
million litres 708.0
Water supply Water supply cubic metres 0.344
million litres 344.0
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex B2 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
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Waste
Table 9.5.12: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from WRATE (2018)
Material
in current
Heathrow
Model
Material
equivalent
in WRATE
Combustion
(with power
generation)
Composting Landfill
(kgCO2e)
Specific notes /
assumptions
Cardboar
d
Paper and
card
16.4 n/a 1,201.0 Paper and card primary
category in WRATE. Assumed
50% 'card packaging' and 50%
'other card' secondary
category
WRATE does not include
direct process emission data
for paper recycling - it
assumes a direct 1:1 offset
with virgin paper which is not
accounted for in 'direct process
emissions'.
Plastic
film
Plastic film 1,754.0 n/a 26.2 Plastic film primary category in
WRATE. Assumed 31% 'bags'
and 69% 'packaging film'
secondary category (default
proportion under DEFRA 2007
WR0119 MSW waste
composition data in WRATE).
Recycling is plastic film
(LLDPE) to pellets
Food
waste
Food waste 16.4 12.2 589.0 Recycling is AD (assumed
small scale low solids BIOGEN
GREENFINCH process). Food
waste is a secondary category
in WRATE, assumed 100%
food waste.
Paper Paper and
card
16.4 n/a 1,080.0 Paper and card primary
category in WRATE. Assumed
41% newspapers, 18%
magazines, 22% recyclable
paper and 19% other paper as
secondary categories (default
proportion under DEFRA 2007
WR0119 MSW composition
data in WRATE)
WRATE does not include
direct process emission data
for card/paper recycling - it
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
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Material
in current
Heathrow
Model
Material
equivalent
in WRATE
Combustion
(with power
generation)
Composting Landfill
(kgCO2e)
Specific notes /
assumptions
assumes a direct 1:1 offset
with virgin paper which is not
accounted for when looking at
'direct process emissions'.
PET/HDPE Other
dense
plastic
1,900.0 n/a 97.5 Dense plastics primary
category in WRATE. Assumed
31% drinks bottles, 38% other
packaging and 31% other
dense plastic (default
proportion under DEFRA 2007
WR0119 MSW waste
composition data in WRATE)
Mixed
Plastic
Unspecified
dense
plastic
1,996.0 n/a 97.5 Dense plastics primary
category in WRATE. 100%
'unspecified dense plastic'
assumed
Glass Glass 16.5 n/a 21.9 Glass is primary category in
WRATE. 5.5% assumed to be
clear bottles, 39.9% assumed
to be clear bottles, 44.2%
assumed to be brown bottles
and 10.4% assumed to be jars.
Recycling is assumed to be
closed loop (i.e. back into
glass packaging)
Ferrous Ferrous
metal
Not possible
to model as
single material
stream
n/a 6.2 Metal recycling is closed loop
i.e. offsetting primary
production. Ferrous metal is
primary category in WRATE.
99% assumed to be steel food
and drink cans. 1% assumed
to be other ferrous. (default
proportion under DEFRA 2007
WR0119 MSW waste
composition data in WRATE)
WRATE does not include
direct process emission data
for ferrous metal recycling - it
assumes a 1:1 offset with
virgin steel which is not
accounted for in 'direct process
emissions'
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex B4 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
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Material
in current
Heathrow
Model
Material
equivalent
in WRATE
Combustion
(with power
generation)
Composting Landfill
(kgCO2e)
Specific notes /
assumptions
Non
Ferrous
Non-ferrous
metal
Not possible
to model as
single material
stream
n/a 14.4 Metal recycling is closed loop
i.e. offsetting primary
production. Non-ferrous metal
is primary category in WRATE.
35.6% assumed to be
aluminium food and drink
cans. 19.7% assumed to be
foil. 44.7% assumed to be
other non-ferrous (default
proportion under DEFRA 2007
WR0119 MSW waste
composition data in WRATE)
WRATE does not include
direct process emission data
for non ferrous metal recycling
- it assumes a 1:1 offset with
virgin aluminium which is not
accounted for in 'direct process
emissions'
Paper
Cups
Unspecified
paper
17.1 n/a 1,782.0 Paper and card is primary
category in WRATE. No paper
cup or paper packaging
secondary category. Assumed
to be 100% 'unspecified paper'
WRATE does not include
direct process emission data
for card/paper recycling - it
assumes a direct 1:1 offset
with virgin paper which is not
accounted for when looking at
'direct process emissions'.
Other/
Residual
Unspecified
hazardous
household
waste items
571 n/a 681.0 Specific hazardous household
is primary category in WRATE.
Assumed 100% 'unspecified
hazardous household'
Liquid/
Process
Loss
Oil 838.0 n/a 143.0 Specific hazardous household
is primary category in WRATE.
Assumed 100% 'oil'
Wood Wood 16.4 n/a 1,252.0 Wood is primary category in
WRATE. Assumed 50% wood
packaging and 50% non-
packaging wood. Recycling is
wood chip to compost (only
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex B5 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Classification: Confidential
Material
in current
Heathrow
Model
Material
equivalent
in WRATE
Combustion
(with power
generation)
Composting Landfill
(kgCO2e)
Specific notes /
assumptions
wood recycling process in
WRATE)
Clothing Unspecified
textiles
744.0 n/a 579.0 Textiles is primary category in
WRATE. 51% assumed to be
artificial textiles, 49% assumed
to be natural textiles as per
default DEFRA
Other
hazardous
waste
recycling
(including
tubes and
sharps)
Clinical
waste
143 n/a 140.0 Clinical waste is secondary
category in WRATE. 100%
assumed to be clinical waste.
Table 9.5.13: GHG emission factors for waste obtained from Resources, Conservation & Recycling (2015)
Material in current Heathrow
Model
Material equivalent in Resources, Conservation
and Recycling
Recycling
Cardboard Cardboard 559
Plastic film Mixed plastic 339
Food waste N/A N/A
Paper Paper 1576
PET/HDPE PET 155
Mixed Plastic Mixed Plastic 339
Glass Mixed glass 395
Ferrous Steel can 529
Non Ferrous Aluminium can 1113
Paper Cups Paper 1576
Other/ Residual N/A N/A
Liquid/ Process Loss N/A N/A
Wood Wood 502
Clothing Textiles 401
Heathrow Expansion Carbon and greenhouse gases Appendix 9.5 – Operations
Appendix 9.5 Annex B6 © Heathrow Airport Limited 2019
Classification: Confidential
Material in current Heathrow
Model
Material equivalent in Resources, Conservation
and Recycling
Recycling
Other hazardous waste
recycling (including tubes and
sharps)
N/A N/A