SPOTLIGHTEnergy exploration and escalating disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean

volume 25 | October 2020

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S P O T L I G H T

The Eastern Mediterranean's recent natural gas discoveries and growing economic potential have set the stage for intensifying disputes over exploration rights and exclusive economic zones (EEZ). In particular, the Turkish government's assertiveness and its willingness to aggressively respond to both perceived threats and possible opportunities have created an environment prone to crisis. This Spotlight discusses how mounting geopolitical tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have also accompanied military posturing in war-torn Libya. It offers insight into the value of Maxar's maritime monitoring and imagery analysis.

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Imagery Analysis. Maxar's imagery analysis reports are comprehensive studies depicting full-scale awareness of ongoing activity in an area of conflict or interest, generally up to 300 square kilometers. These quick-turn reports include 10-15 pages of analysis and are compiled by a team of senior imagery analysts and subject matter experts.

Greece

TURKEY

CYPRUS*

EGYPT

Major Gas Discoveries

2009: Tamar(~22 trillion ft3)

2010: Leviathan(~10 trillion ft3)

2011: Aphrodite(~8 trillion ft3)

2015: Zohr(~30 trillion ft3)

2018: Calypso(5-8 trillion ft3)

Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), Claimed/Disputed

Greece EEZ

Turkey EEZ

Cyprus EEZ

Greece-Turkey Disputed

Cyprus-Turkey Disputed

Cyprus-TRNC* Disputed

* TRNC: Turkish Republic of North Cyprus

Syria

Summary of Unique Tools & Applications

Estimated recoverable natural gas in the eastern med., per the U.S. Geological Survey

TRILLION FT3122

Discovery of Natural Gas Reserves exacerbates long-standing issues

Eastern Mediterranean claimed and disputed waters

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In January 2019, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and Israel collaborated with French and Italian energy companies to establish the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum. While not explicitly anti-Turkish in intent, it increased Turkey’s perception of being isolated and excluded from the potential economic opportunities emerging from natural gas development in the region. Turkey’s efforts to address its perceived encirclement picked up in November 2019, when it signed an agreement on maritime boundaries and EEZs with the internationally recognized Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Turkey did so to supplement its claim to disputed waters near the Greek islands of Crete, Karpathos and Rhodes.

On January 2, 2020, Greece, Cyprus and Israel signed the EastMed gas pipeline project. The plan is to build a pipeline from the developing Israeli and Cypriot gas fields through Greece and into Italy. If realized, this project will reduce the European Union’s dependence on Russian gas currently flowing through Turkish pipelines, thereby negatively affecting the

Turkish economy. This development accelerated Turkey’s efforts to reassert its position in Eastern Mediterranean resource extraction and geopolitics.

For much of 2020, the Oruc Reis, a Turkish seismic research vessel, skirted contested waters. Escorted by the Turkish navy, the vessel entered Greece’s claimed EEZ on several occasions, which prompted heightened attention from the other interested states in the region. By late July, Greece had dispatched warships to operate in the vicinity of the Oruc Reis. The show of force on both sides culminated with a mild collision between Greek and Turkish warships on August 12. In mid-September, Turkey called the Oruc Reis back to port 10 days earlier than scheduled, possibly a result of mounting political and economic pressures. Although Greece applauded the move, Turkish officials downplayed its significance. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar claimed the vessel would continue with exploration operations and that Turkey was not giving up rights to the area.

Proposed Pipeline and Detections of Turkish Vessels In Contested Waters

EastMed Gas Pipeline (Proposed)

Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), Claimed and Disputed

Greece EEZ

Turkey EEZ

Cyprus EEZ

Greece-Turkey Disputed

Cyprus-Turkey Disputed

Cyprus-TRNC* Disputed

Turk

ey-L

ibya

EEZ A

gree

ment

(Nov

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Greece

TURKEY

CYPRUS* Syria

LIBYA

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3a2a 2B1a 1BJune 2020 August 2020 January 2020 September 2020 September 2020

Oruc Reis (Research/Survey Vessel) Yavuz (Drill SHIP) Barbaros hayreddin pasa (research/survey vessel)

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Growing Proxy Showdown in Libya

The November 2019 EEZ agreement between Turkey and Libya also had terms for Turkish military support to the U.N.-backed, Tripoli-based GNA. At the same time that the EastMed gas pipeline project was being signed in early January 2020, the Turkish Parliament approved a bill authorizing the deployment of Turkish military forces into Libya. A few hundred military advisers, air defense systems, military materials and equipment, drones and fighters recruited from Syria soon followed.

This support proved critical for the GNA's recent defense of Tripoli from the Libyan National Army (LNA), the faction supported by Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The following satellite imagery depicts the positioning of Turkish air defense systems at the important Al Watiyah air base in northwest Libya, which was reclaimed from the LNA in May 2020.

August 16, 2020 | WorldView-3

Turkish Air Defense Systems at Al Watiyah Air base

LIBYA

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Sirte

Tripoli

Al Watiyah Air base

Al Jufra Air base

August 16, 2020 | WorldView-3

MIM-23 HAWK

MIM-23 HAWK

Probable AN-MPQ 64 (Radar)

MIM-23 HAWK

Probable ACV-30 Korkut

Probable ACV-30 Korkut C2 Vehicle

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The mounting successes of the GNA and the solidification of Turkey's presence in Libya quickly prompted further foreign intervention. By June, Russian military aircraft appeared at the central Libyan airfield of Al Jufra to provide additional support to the Russian private military companies already working with the LNA. Emirati supply flights were also captured via satellite imagery at multiple bases in the region.

By late June, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi further upped the ante by threatening overt military

intervention if GNA forces, or their allies, moved east of Sirte. This coastal city is the gateway to controlling much of Libya’s oil production. Satellite imagery of Egypt's western military bases also reinforced el-Sissi's declaration and suggested his words were more than just rhetoric (see page 6).

The prospects of a significant escalation, and likely also exhaustion from over a year of conflict, created an opportunity for negotiations that eventually led to the recent cease-fire.

LNA and Proxy Presence at al Jufra Air base

SEPTEMBER 10, 2020 | WorldView-3

PROBABLE MIL MI-24 (HIND)

SEPTEMBER 10, 2020 | WorldView-3

C-17 GLOBEMASTER

SEPTEMBER 10, 2020 | WorldView-3

ANtonov AN-24 (COKE)

MIG-25 (FOXBAT)

MIG-25 (FOXBAT)

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S P O T L I G H T

While the immediate risk of conflict may be waning for now, the long-term issues both at sea and ashore remain unresolved. These rivalries and escalating disputes are setting the stage for stronger threats and more frequent engagements. As such, it is imperative to have scalable clarity in as close to real time as possible, especially for those serving in the defense and intelligence, maritime security and oil/natural gas domains. With Maxar's Vessel Detection Service and imagery analysis reports, you get the expertise and insights that you need in order to quickly identify maritime traffic or monitor military posturing within your area of interest.

conclusion

Turkish Naval Escort for Oruc Reis (EPA-EFE/Turkish Defense Min.)

Egypt's BuildUp At Sidi Barrani Air base

August 7, 2020 | WorldView-2

Activity since July:Staging of armored assets and non-armored support

JUNE 2, 2020 | GEOEYE-1JUNE 14, 2020 | WorldView-2

Staging of Aerial assets prior to Presidential Visit

Dessault mirage V

CH-47 CHINOOK

Probable F-16

Probable Mi-24 (HIND)

Probable Mi-17 (HIP-H)

C-130 Hercules

C-17 Globemaster

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