V.N. Maslova, E.N. Voskresenskaya, E.V. Dunaevskaya

10 September 2012Łódź, Poland

Joint AMO and PDO manifestations in the winter wheat yield in Ukraine

Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Aim to study how Atlantic Multidecadal

Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) influence on low-frequency variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine

Data sets Regional winter wheat yield (1945–2008) in

different agroclimatic zones of Ukraine: woodland, forest steppe, steppe

Monthly AMO and PDO indices (1990–2008)

Long-term series of monthly in-situ precipitation & temperature (1990–2008)

Frequency and depth of cyclones and anticyclones (1948–2006) over Ukraine obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets

Agroclimatic zones of Ukraine

Winter wheat yield in 1945-2008

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

45

19

48

19

51

19

54

19

57

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

Yie

ld, c

entn

ers/

ha

Woodland

Forest-steppe

Steppe

Ukraine

Regional factors

tair and p are mean values for the

vegetation period of winter wheat

92,0;15,023,1 2 RptY airWL

82,0;28,004,2 2 RptY airFS

89,0;48,084,0 2 RptY airS

89,0;6,804,0 2 RaсY fdUkrcd – depth of cyclonesaf – frequency of anticyclones

AIR TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION

SINOPTIC SYSTEMS (CYCLONES & ANTICYCLONES)

Global factors

[http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/05/14/timescale-of-the-pdo-nao-and-amo/]

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation

[http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/]

Winter wheat yield (average for Ukraine)

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Years

Ano

mal

y, s

igm

aWinter wheat yield - WOODLAND

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Years

Ano

mal

y, s

igm

a

Winter wheat yield - FOREST-STEPPE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Years

Ano

mal

y, s

igm

aWinter wheat yield - STEPPE

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Years

Ano

mal

y, s

igm

a

1970

1965-1970

1965

Climate shift in XX century

The climate shift in 1965–75 was found in the variability of winter wheat yield

0

10

20

30

40

Ukraine Woodland Forest-steppe Steppe

Yie

ld, c

en

tne

r/h

a

AMO+

AMO-

Association with

AMO

-3

-2

-1

1

2

3

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

An

om

aly,

sig

ma

Detrended winter wheat yield

AMO index

R=-0,6

Average long-term differences

Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level

0

10

20

30

40

Ukraine Woodland Forest-steppe Steppe

Yie

ld, c

en

tne

r/h

a

PDO-

PDO+

Association with

PDO

Average long-term differences

-2

-1

0

1

2

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

Res

idu

als,

sig

ma

-1

0

1

PD

O in

dex

PDO index

Standardized residuals

R=0,4

Error bars correspond to 99% confidence level

What are the joint AMO and PDO manifestations?

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

19

00

19

04

19

08

19

12

19

16

19

20

19

24

19

28

19

32

19

36

19

40

19

44

19

48

19

52

19

56

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

An

om

aly

,sig

ma

Precipitation (Woodland)

PDO-AMO index

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1,5

19

00

19

04

19

08

19

12

19

16

19

20

19

24

19

28

19

32

19

36

19

40

19

44

19

48

19

52

19

56

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

An

om

aly

, sig

ma

Air temperature (Sevastopol)

PDO-AMO index

PDO-AMO index as an indicator of joint influence

Joint AMO & PDO manifestations

-2

-1

0

1

2

1950

1954

1958

1962

1966

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

An

om

aly,

sig

ma

Winter wheat yield

PDO-AMO index

R=-0,57

3,0;785,0 2 RIY AMOPDOUkr

Conclusions

The climatic shift in 1965–75 associated with multidecadal processes in the ocean-atmosphere system was found in the variability winter wheat yield in Ukraine

During AMO+ or PDO- phases the winter wheat yield is 10–15 centners/ha higher than during AMO- or PDO+ phase

The joint influence of AMO and PDO determines about 30% of the variability of winter wheat yield in Ukraine

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!