A\\stmUnn Agricultural Ecomlmics COlltol'onca Syuncy tJnivctsil.Yi Pcb. 1993

CHINA'S TEA INOUSTRY A1'1 A CnOSSROAl)S ON tllJl~ J..IONG l\1AltCU; \VlnCH WAY Anl~AJ)·'

Dan M. UthCfillgton* nnd Keith Porslcr ** * Ecnumnics J)~pnrtml,mt. Resoarch School of Pllcillc Studies

Auslmli(m NmiollallJllivef'sNYt Cnnhcft'u. +~Aslnn Stutllos. Faculty or At1s

Uui\'('fwity oj' Nf!W 1~lIglmul .. NOI't/wm RIV£If\\\ 1 ~lsmm'cl NS\V

At'~Ilf{hni! to Its nlHclul ~Hllisllc!\. ('him.is tcu prnductton Im~ gl'Own ot an u\'crugc nllmlUll'nt~\

of nboul 7q nv.:t lhu laM qum11.l f 01 n ccntur)', Tcu cxport~ hllve risen at n &lmUnr rulc. This I~

n.nnnrknhic fnr tm> p~'rcrllljal crnp. I Jowcvcr. dnuht has hl1cn cxprcssl!d wilhln Chinn nud

Illh,'mIlUonally n:pnrding lite UC\:urlll,;>' of lhu puhl\&\lcd inlhrmution. This pup~t examines the nH'lclul

n.'!:onJ for hash: ~~nll"I~lt,.In(.;>' ilnd then unalyr-.",~ Ilw datu u!llnl1 n lugg~d production/supply t'cspnnst:

I'UIl\!lhH\, 1h:! n.''tults Iw\'c lfllpllcu\lnn:, lot til\.! ~ustahHlhllllJ nllhe rnpld growth rlllt!s tlnd Uwy

quc~Uon the u~~\mlpliotl Umt till! mpld grmvtll HI lC'U output OWl' tlw Ill'sl len yeurs or "Econmnk

Reform" ha!'! I.'HlIsal n.:lnlHlIl wHh t1H! l'I.Horm prul..'CI'IS,

'nlC purer t:onc:hKh.~~ hy noting thc Impllcnt.ion!ol lor domestic and Inh.wnnlional mmklJls.

CHINA'S ;l"~t\lNl)t1S1'.tY AT A CROSS ({OAt)S ON1lUtLONG MAltCllt \VlUCH \VAV AUEAI}?

I, It'Ui(l(llJ~thm

'nlU worldwide, hobH of tea drlnJdns is n rOI ,Uvely reccnt phcnolucllon nHhoughthc len Industry

01' Chinn hl\s " recorded history g~)in" tmck Umusuud~ or YC(lrs. UQ·cnust} of this hitilory\ tOil tR much

mor<l Hum II m~rp bcvcrngc to tho Chhl~SO: n slgnitlcnnt cullUre has dcvclnl')Od around Ute industry. HOWOVCft as stgnificunt. ns the culture m1uht be, tho p{)1Uh'~ tUld cC()I)omlcs or ton hovo had n flt'nfmmd hnlll\ct nlUlnnall)t and internatiunlllly. T9U has been \Uu~d ON Il cUrt~nCYI os u tux btllie nm! ns n source

of n,WCtlllC. It hus boun thu ,musu of, or Cxc\isa fur, hl()ody WIU'S. Chinn nmdc am) lost n (oreUlle III ten. With 90 rH.'(Cl!lll of lho wt)rld miU'k~l in lS70 i she only hnd \)Up third of thu murkcl hy tho bagltUling

of this Ccmm')t, r:rum n l)clIk ul' owr J35 k mils hl.IBR61' ~XIHlrtN nvcrngud lIbmll90 k lnns rrnm WOO

unlil tho end of \V\VJ, nCIWCCI1 tIlt.! world worSt CX1'Xwts Shltlllltlll to half Ihls lI.lvol. tn t9S0 ChhHI

exported n tncr~\ }9 k tnns and h)' 1970 had only dmlhl~d this nmmmt. However dnmmllc chnnucs hl\Vt~

taken phu:~ shw~ then, T~I\ OUlput cxpnndl.!d ruptdl), through Iha 1970s null the 19H(}s. In 1976, ChhHl

uvcrtuol~ Sri Lanka us Iho st~cond lnrg\.'st world N(l\Jm,'t l ( or tCIl, III 1982, notional output. sUl'passed (he

prc\'itllih rll,~i\k rcconJl.!d in 1 u 14. tn H)H4, exports heat Ihe pw\,lous rceonl volumo I)stnhlishcd in 1886.

ll~' t9Rs prmlucllOll (S4~ k lnmd WilS uvcr lhl'l.~c and Il hull' times the level or 1971. ()V(!f this same

petlod, C);I"'1tls increased III an even faster rule OI'(H11 5:\ 10 t97 k Inns). T~il hnd hc~olHC Chhu.ls most

valuahle cash ~'rop cXpOl'l. 'nils mph1 Icccm CXJ}ilHstnn In ulllt~Ul IIlld exports is shown ill 1~I~UII·t! 1.

n. The tH'uhltHll

Som!! nhscrv~)rs havo tllken U1CI\I.! ,lilalislics I\t ril~~C voluc and have c>;tl'npolalCd the IrcndN ttl

furccultt fulure output umJ cx.p0rllcvcls IReddy 1991. Qu 19lJJ}. A shnplc. h!lIsl"Mlunrusl linear trend

or output lrom HJ()J to IORCJ gives n ~ood slnlistll,.'al fit (R~ 1# OC)4) with output tnereustn» by nbout 17

l\ lOllS l)cr yt!nr and Implies lin OUlput level of ahout 700 k Ions hy Iho turn or the I..'l.mtur}'. A !ou·Unt:ilf

trend glWs tln even bellcf' stnll~Ucul til O~: = O.VU) wnh It 7.~% rllw or gruwth over thl.! sallle llcrlod.

th,mg tlns growth tatc to 'un:~ilsl 111'Olhll.'IIuU III 200(} AD IInpll~ls (hill output would thun nmrh "hmH

1.1 IllliUon lotIS.: Stich lin mHl'nm~~ would rlJ"Clilllhlish ChUla Ill! Ihe premIer t~a prmluccr In Uw world

lind fundamentally chan~~ Ihl.! wurhl supply situutiou,

In this pupcr we c>;piUul un earlier work (Hthcrlngton & Forster, 19801 lIud drllw on our

furlllcOIning honk fHthctillnton & Forster} I f)~31 to show lIUlI output fbrccuMN ((Uld llarullcl export

l)fUjt'cllnns) hd~cd un such slmplu treml cxtnlJlolnUons Iln~ hlglll~ unlil,ul y lU ho tI..!lIliso.d. SotlW

Ullcrrmtlonnl CXpt~rtl\ douh! tho roll"hlllly or tho oH'lcinl Chllll)su stn!lsllcs un whidl the cXlrapulnllnfl~

nm hill'.cd. We shaH Hrst all' this VioWI cxumillc thu urficint rC(,lol'd in mnr\~ d~lnii ntHJ then utllhmllkc

further MnllsUcnl unulyscR ur lho dilln to derlvo an nltornalivc sct of cunr.:hIKlnns.

CH I NA · S ~reA f:lr~aOUCT ION ANO eX.r:?OF1TS 11:llHl ... 1!H1il

1 Oliff) \!J6!J 1t) 118 is r, 19UO 'I'l~Anr.

t~ flf'r If, INU} /1IltlfHJt;1' ION t;~ t. xti(\lH!j

"'-"' ____ ... _~"""j~ .. _. ___ 'o_."._· .. ______ i..~ ____ .. ,_.:. ______ ~

I~igur(.\ '.

Ill. l)utu rcHuhlHtl

tllt' uUl\.'hll record nl {'hmL'M: tea prmhKlllm IIml cXflmlN '''' Ilot L'utlsllhm.lt.l to bCl*nliruly fcllahh:

'llh: \VnrhJ lhmk. tnl\krt,d~l'\ un IIIUlUill revww of the world ten Imdc. 'nICS,,! n.·vlcwli lU:kuO\\llcdgc th~·

uUIlortanl,:t' u( ('t~Hhl'h UllJuCnt;~ un lIulI \,'tlltltHH\ht), In 1()8~.lhc Hallk I.!xl1r",~scd thc vu.!w thilt ',,\ IiIt/JUI

W1H'f'ldrtll\ In /ltIUll' lwrld I blcu'kl lett ampUl IU'lJjl.l('ltnnv is IIIl' pflJs/u'rtx (~I Cltwtl ',v Mock l(t(1

1!J'uduuum' (World UnnklCJfW. Jl,I.~~J In the Unnk:s IUWL· fll(CCilSIs. CIIIn;es jwlInn,s were h) tlC(.!umt~

t.:ntu.ai II ib btilel\. h,m (.~Xpuff1i \:unHnucd (0 urow al "Itn ruther than iiI half Ihitl nUe, wmld hlm:k 11M

pnt'lJllt ',,'ere CMumlwd to lm H)f;y luwer (hall th\!)1 would nlhcrwl!\1.! be fly tile turn ul Ute ,·cHlury.

'l1u.: f)c("IHnht!f I ijcm nun.~ tC\,II.lW, whHa cHllllnum~' tn rCl:n~nlw Ule crHt~al rule uf CIulla JH

wurhJ lr~ldc" lUtludc" "i\wh J)hru,c~ n~

'fJermHl' Il'Imbk\lalWtn tire 11m tn'tIllable', rftwc(\ bifid: (im l'\lwnv an' IliAc'" 1I.~

lJutplllt Ami. 'data lnt China tlrt' 1101 (Wdilahlt! • tr,.()KI. /\nd. itllililt

'1ll!fdllW (~llll(t Ii/(. k lIf l't'/ltIIJ/t' Slllllslws IIml IIu' (UIl'II.m't SUlPl' .1m' SUIHlllwum h,'IW('('t!

Mark tlml mlU'r /t,'(IS. II t.V r/(f/IC'Ull to JU'Uj(!Cl (,/U1U1 'S ('.lImns (1m (('fla/J/(' datil ('.llSt jllr

pfmlut:titm flf "1m k mal UtJH.IIVN, •.. black It,,, t'lJltn't,Y 1It'l- IJI'Ojf,ICiflfl 10 ilh '/W/S(' 1II

aluml !Itjf. p.a.· h).70j.

'nu> World llitnk isnm UIOtlO HI hllvmJ! lfonbI8n.8'(1'h~ raUuhilHy of urncHd t;lllUNUCS on Chhu,tg

leu iruhlSlr>!, ~ tthhuhCntlC.Qtn blls ol~ubcCH v(llcelJ. und n'llr~IHlV<'Ihccn w.riousUH~mrlR nt

itnl,ruviug the nccur.,cy or tho dllhl,H~lXln figytl!s JiuhU~hud by Uu~Minisrry or Phrctgn Trlldc

t ·Mnfcnt} nrc dHTcrcnt tn thosupublfshcd.hy llul C\tSfnnL~ l)cp:mmcm.Flgut(ls forHHlpfOvlm:cs

rmhhshcd by the centrul llov(!(fUncntMQ onl)ndn'r~tQnl;tnUmsu (~Uhlish~d hytho tnovincen lllumR~JvC8.

Uchm! lhercforrns or UJiS, \todrUN u.m} (~OImntln~s were 01lUll rcwnrdCd (wUh. fur Insumco. ;uldnlmml

chctull:nl f~tUli~ct) un the basis or' MW arcns phluteU.'nto bum"ln datn repntU"abins W(lS. UICt\, ill

tavnur or ~mltll~ ufil9 p1Ilfltt*d, rn n)"/~. ZlIoJiant-t ,m)Vh'lc~ llHUnted if. sUfvCytu dutl,!rmhlU how much hmd wus IlCIlHtUy f1illnt4!d \tml,~r tml. lly WHO, 4~ nfl lhU' 58 IcuUfowing cmmtl~~s had hc~m

sllry~~)cd Owrall the ilfun under tea WIIN 1 a, 'iiiS, less Hum fCr10ttClJ flsmCi. InlfCU cuuntics wcru fuund to have Oft!} ~n In 6UQ 01 • , Uh'a tll!.'!}' halt rmrvuulkly (cptlth!(L Howuvu,\ this nHClnpf ill n.1ylslng, the mhmUilUuu hilS!! m un~ nl ('hllla·" hest cnduwtld l,ru\<.tnc:cs. was uS(·lrf.'tm"'.s~d nJr tho lmsly I'mmncr

m \\inch tl WUli cnnthl\:tcd {lIn. It}XO., pr'

H4'}}. hmh!.'nnnr~t lhl') ptuVnHaid hgur~'k hi\w fl('Wr t~fJn

ildIU\tC\) In ten,,''''l the ~urvc~ ft'\ull·!i,

In fl'iJilhlln n\UI1ult twu tfcnth have cmt'rf(~d 1'lf1it IIH.'r~ hali nlsu been un un~UI.ug hUlb Ulwnrds

u\icr·rCrjuum~' uutPI)t ttl uhtllUl lc.rhhM'f Idh)1..:m.Mn~ nnd lulhl m'muu"rauv.t~b' Il!ii~J~ncd pmdtH.'lloU

htf~4:t' Ih)\\"\:\l't \Hell tll\! mtrmJu~:thlH uf HMJur nM.rlttHmt:.rc'urm~ m ItlK"'. n m.'w r1UhHlUnt hUlk wn~

mthKlth:I.'fl W,l,tl.~r,)t"iNr!!!l!tHUm!!l hy JlfudIH"':I'~ Ilnd pfllU"~tlfil tu • .IVUhJ 1111.'*\1 \ilXCS umJ rtmrgclI: tl'lmacr

I'm} It \uUlfli Ill; UN' ~ul'Jln~t.' th~·th hI he lollJ h~ uUlt'm)!. \\Hhm IhIJ mdu~lry lhal lht·y ~:tlt!P Itum uwn

M:ll1C \\hut (ht'~ r~ull'hhn YilUltahl) atlHl14h:d ,hIlU" Ihld Umnrt~ llu:umt~l}' rcfl\'\:t lh~ n.~ill NUtHJlIllnll (ii\llm

1dU,·h \l~~W\, nth! "tuuM 'UUHW Ilrt' Wurld nlmk·~J.:ad nnd \l.handon furthl!r~tI\U~lh;at InmtY}iiR. Hnwl:wt"

v.~~ \ HtlMlJttf' n IfHllUllllnt tn rt"C)jilHml~ lilt' I'tf,u:ud ~hIlHdl':h lIud l.iXI'Jnn,~ In 'nm~ ",,'pth whal Hmy Hnpl}

fl..'J,Wurdmp hthu\.' uutrlut Itt\dli

IV. t.nuktul! hchUtd Uu.~ lmhllshtl.1 uufptn rl1cnrd

In Uti.: dCI.adc hllttlwm~~ th1~ nunul~nt,l.tuwnt nl rcl.unn~ In the llttfll..'ullUtIII NIJ,'tnr (ttflH .. HR). ICi.

mUlmt ullt.1 xwJ.d! l'h,:tI.'.l'~"·4.J til ilhOlH 1'1: Iwr dumuu. l'nr Un)! It·) (.x:·!"'ur nvcr un t:;xh!thletlrwnnd fot im)

\.'('up 18 tI hUll 1m (' ~ thl~ l~ C~JWt:lUlI)i Ifue lin U [lcfl;'fHmll Over Ih.~ MHlW l~rukJ. UUU..!fcntl'lj\' pl~tn)rmCd

h.'\.~ t:un~tklcmly hlf' Ule Itv\:' years 19'1K " I'JR'~ tnaU)1 other (.'mps IU Chnm (·ullllmmidJ.) alsu \htlw~d

lara.:cpc.t ;mnurn vlI:hJ uwr':U'lJ:ft hm. unllk\.' fCr.l. U1CS(.l 1l1(;,n:nsclt fell un HI Ih~ ,'\c(.und hall or til\: dl!t:mh,J

iI.~ I' ~hnwfj In Tnhl~ It

In the L'1l\C ul tellt wfnlc tht: rille ul wtUl,;h~lcJdt\ haw Hc~m Ilh;h~it"m~ ls cxt.t4'IUlJly mllm~Milw.

tIlt: lJCllIllllcwb ur~ MIn \l!r~ ~·l\\;.i '~'ttlds nrc hl\\' Hl rclaHnu fo (hUhC' fl.'pur'h!d thr tQ14~18 (ufl/lut tlO(i

kg/hll .. sec PerkinS I .~()t) I. Uw yJl,~ld!t ulhlCycd nn Stille 1!l.rm~ n .S(X) tn over 2.00u k!Vlm) HI t~lmilm

3

p.rOVinCQS (llangsn '.md HIlUumllmd cuulltl~s.;md III rcs~H.f4:h ImaHlIlCS (o\'~r 4)OOOkallml n!thctln~lon. tt}9Ul.

'i'1),bl. ..~ nl1f;~Qg growtb 0; c);,Qrl}"~e1.dn ••.•. ~u.~ •. w~ ••••• "~ ••••• ~ ••• ~.~ ••••• ~~ •••• ~ •••• ~.

l,i',''\WI "

ar~itHI C!<>teQtl O£l, et('J~tJ a\l~~ $\.\tt~t T~l,\ I' Rats of growth p~af) beat 4.35 1,94

l.14

7.00 "LOd

~l 1<02· ~ =cCG=a==DQ~a

fh)lH'efl! Pf~(~ ('bula tnu~1,l ~nDti(Jtti!':{ll Yt~llt~book, vnt~:L(;mtl iem.mn.

hJI4,'rUiJIW1HlI f.'umtmnsotllt connrm tlw vct)' luw Juvcl or {Ihtnats nggrogntc tuu y"Hdfi. tUtu cnHlf')iH'tsun WHh lndm. H,r CXlml'\',~, IS slilrk. In lUUl}" Chlna*s nvemgc; Ylcld was ubout iOO kgltm whHe

flmt nflndlil Wits nCiftl~'~\{)O(J kg/ha Wtth Hearly hatt of thi,! wml{f*!) tntar i~111 nnrdl.!ll!h t!lmm pmdUt~U8 unr~; "huut 2Wl tl[ world nUlpu(, fndl:h Wilh teN!) than 2Urif uf fotat unw, rlfnduccs over 10(~l:i uft.nHp\/i.,

with ytchh luut unWfi htlAhlH'

11 ,~ ,7kiUl} vlJry Ullputlant to cxplnm why Chmll*s uwrugc :iteMs WUll1ulll{Hlll arCIl) ute so low

ami wh} they IM'H: h\!~n lfh.ft'aMHlt Nn hl,( len t~ n l~n!nnmllirnllwhh:h gcmmlHy lukes 'htc~ },ClUS:

ttl \,'omc HUn prndu",Uun It mkc!s Utl lu h!t\ ymlt~ In fldu~!~c pt:nk Yl~'ldh Output rC!Sl'HHlSCS w:.SPOliSlhlc

m th\!' ,hurt nm fJ poul'I)' nMUil~CtJ tit' nc~lt't'll.!d ndd~ arc hruughlluto full rruuucUun thmu~h n!guhu

(lrumng. \'d!I!~hn)! am.l h.-mII \N' apph""illItIIl IlnwCH~', Inn1!.~!r·t~rm inl.'rCHSCI% in mHplU rcquirl'! more

~xtcn~lW flJillIlmp.r~Un\;UUHn ul ulLl fI~·hh nr rcplunHnp wtthlughcr >'J~IdtU~l vuriulius. Respmls('!~ in

Uu'! til\l' wnuld h~ uh~~'r\'cd nVl!f II dccnd~ or mute rather than nVl!rlt t'uuplc uJ ll~\Jts" 'l1lIJtu is i1 uccd,

fhen, u' lunk hack at the \VU~fr\ lU \\!m:lllhc prcvtllus p.tln:y re~lmc8 COVCrHl!J the 195n~ lUnlcnrJy HJ(){ls.

nnd tile fK'l'lOd nlllw euJmrul Ucvuhmnn f 10{)M1{» nffccwd Om ten lu.Julifr}'.

,lJgUff.' 1 ~huw.l'i n ,*tcUd)1 1,npmvcrm.'nJ In nHl(ml durmLt the I(HOb' nus umfcd UhfUr)rly tu JOnl

with the two ),t!ilr" ul' nuturid dl"iMt:'f thnt 'UUtlW4td hard uu (he Iwct~ of the lIe trcal lA~·ttp Furward!>,

r'ltJur~ 2 I;h()w~ that flit:' ft!cort.htd lWW, droflP~ld stwrph frum II peak of 4Of'~ till ttl W5t) tn nnly at f k lin In It}(d. f(~cnVC(f MnrtmJ m f'll!\ '11111\ WU~ hlUowcd by llIl vuornllHlS ith:t'lJil!~C In rc .. ~onktf ~,

tlm'lng the t 2 Y~'llt fwrmd f{)(.~n7. Nat.h1fliJUYt this Willi n 2(}WH HI~!tcn"'! • it growth fUll! of' Oh't ~)(~ l'K:r

,CIlr. 'nus Nfiod l'nUWltl~A\ wUJlIh~ CullumJ Rc\'uhHl.un ur Ih" ~o,cilllc\ll1'l'~n Y\!iU'!i or djsnlfh~r", In lO(!H

the r~cnrd~d "Arei' Plunt(.!du fCClJycf4'd ttl tlill lc\'(!l ttl W5'J. Ovrr Ute Un~~c YCllflii I t)(.x tu 1 '1*/1. Ihe IltCIl

ul~r~uMn.J hy Rt;r (WI' )leut. Over Ihe lIext (IV!! rcm'b Un 1()'1CH the un'iI !tn-w lit tilL' f,hctUlUWHul nlte 01

mmrly ) ''Vj~ lx:r nmmm. In 19T~ IImJ nglHn the {ullm\'irllt >ICIII\ IfiO k 1m Hi tt!u wvw plilUlCd

'lb 1~llInl b\lch lnr11Q urCUN fWI!r l\Udlll hllort lwriud willi NudJ n t.!cnscly lllimlc.'d pcrl'nmn.l ~'rUI'llh

4

h~~Jis qllltorOtuurkubJu. 't1ti$.ls c()tHvQhmt IOphn~lm~, 'h~ tnUJlllrCU~ma~r t~.~lhl SOUtlJhtdHl. ntK~nYlh

in JU,.l tnluycat II; ()t7Stl [.nnku·s t.ntld ICir nr~~.in twuyt)ttrst 11Iktn~c:UUll tunny ChloQ~O lQn ~t()d"~Jn)A, llfOvmc:c&buvep:>tmhmotls H1!XXC~N8 r~f mOSf, cmmtfic:s,Ncvcrth~lus8. tnQ; u~Jmtutsttnnyc· nmJl(}S;i~Uc Ulsks Of hmd prermrntion. nUl'scrymlUuJucm~mnndPlmmng Dnthln~C"ltQ is mludh()~SUIlB' Ind~cd. the HCldu uf" lh\l plnlUinllls nkln to 11' miUtlrmnUnty nflCmU()n~ '{1nJ; mUh'l'lf.fUmlloU>t Is n!l~d duUbefm~l}lt

\lIJClnJse ;11 Ih~ JlItUunlllphlmlmg. cwnfurcw:.Q ill nno. UIU sloUI1f~; IIllJ't~ tlUJ mmlm)~ WtMJWl1tt to olw!tVtJ'. (~ju!r:k (lnd iII~{"eml'tU Cl!t1f'\'lllmg." W'.~JJ: ill y()SUO n~tu Sull1hm&.:Wu Quonun, l08G.j). 155;1.

tH' NA Ei r[~;A Ar'1E~A ~ C)VTPlJ"& E:XTl:tc)RTS 'I~llm ~ "IQll~

Mnd~'rn Chml,p,l: nmumHlfllrJcs. wInch h:t\·c gcn~trnU)' n:vJJ\!d the l!l:nnUUllt' pnlidl;:.& utlllu

Culturul I{cvnhlllun. hdVU not sought tn deny or revise lbe tt:H!ltaUSU"h hw thL1SC YClln" 'Ilm .(mwamt 'Juullly of tlm!i~ 1)J;mltnJt~ 18 nnnfhcr rnaHt!f. however. um! llierll fms t'H.~cn lIom(! rc['t!(crwc It) Ihe

unMUlllhlluy uf hit:nunn· und ttmhmusltuf UfJhll'!ltilhHshmenL ;nl~ II1\(uuml growth in \Inn! uf 200(jf over

the f'wnudJ(m5177 wns ('uUnwed ()\lut Um ne>;t J: )luntR (In WRt») hy !In UlcrCU8~ nl' ufdy 5'1f .. ;nH~

fUHUUHd Um nnw uPf)lJars tu rmvc nnw Mnhm~cd. lind it ,suuvlmlln~'m pullcy not to cnlnrgc lffurlhcr.

Offh:ml filIltUdi.t'!i tdmw uun Ihe pfnntHlll nmJ n!ptmll mg WUt\ WldcRPfCrut. Th!.!h,m.iJ!.CU.1U thu ~~wun

I1rntWClHi fnr which wn hnv,~ mJ~(umtc Inhlf'nUltlUn C'~uhl~t ~)I grew hy 2a"/'h' u'tcr u,~ periud HJ05n1,

5

Sum~r;:l)VinC~N luuJouU~ CM.rltt)fuhmtyijXr)lm~J(m or UuHtl~ll nruus .. mmu motu tm 'h~\ntho northern ~r()YillC\l of S.hmmJ<.it (mo uf UJij IQi'~I.iml)()(hnltICIJ.,pr{XbH~hltll)I~(lVincCH iuChlnn. H(:r&~t HI n lU!!mJ)l\\ y~.ur:;. the fitenlucrunscu nhllosl ftyc: foldl N()~ tmty l~ nu: c~tllm O(lhlHfllimnUB ~slrlJ()t~Unnty hut ulso mQ; 'ItlCIUhm, fl1lesoutlt~m·c'mntjcs o,~ Slmnnxl r(!l'.r.Q$~mt lhQuorthcrn uxttcnw of'("hhlU'g ttH' orcas (339

I'll jUt'.t soutb,of tho 'y'~lInw tiwrl.llmmn Ht~ Jl whut~ Ihu growlns 80nson 18 nnmc:dtn~l () ~ Z1U tJ"Yti~i It ·shouh,l bu UOlcdUmtlh!! gmwlh of' tlij} nrc It In Yunmm .(llle, maJot~"!I!,tuc~.· 011 bfnck lCn),~ mn utI srcJ)

wUlI U1Q uthcrpmviUces: Us t~rh~t ·of rnphlgmwth stnrtudhlt~lt nmJccmHnucs fmot.ho' Ijn~H)80s,

?,hwJ l(~t'u Anhltl IhlrllW \ ;W"UVf' i"jnn i ULHlil\U I :tumu.tJ~ r:t.·Uh>:)

Tatll abovn 1ae m twt J'r ,.W#

tll1 t'nl'fHlf'Hj

N.tlon~l 33G

~IO. h ~tLfi

;JEt • f:d *'1f) 1 1

.. ;)'\. ~ t

Ull

*;H(,

453

200

.. ~;.; l

603

461 t.i f):;

1,014 ~~ ,

:HHHl

16'1,1 110.:t

15 Ml.7 'LH

1}Jf~,8 ~HL8

U40

f'f,) t ..

l.,Ot;'l ( .' ,

Tlw r~~'cntl)! r~hnlsl.!d liJ!ur~!1 lor thi.! itt\Zd under tt!U l<'uilbk'd Us tn dtlwJop it 81l11f\licUI modul tu

nrmlysc lh"'lf II.nplh.'iltloU\ fur the tmtu~lr>,,!I lulutc uutput ,MIlI.lIlt 'r1m nmdel CUU\I:rtk thl! tlm~·scriCS

UiWl ust'd iI) '·~Jgntc2 mlu u form lllllt fl.'roHIU'.cs the colton ultiul: ~trm:turc uf nc\v r')antiuw~, llu!

tCNultmg function show~ how IhlUultill,i~hJ\t IIle th:vdullIUj}, Hwl wtwlht'f! unUuHill poJIt;ICIi lhlve lind tlH)'

t!Hcct UII ~lcJds,. 'J11C H1udt,J wus devcloped us fuHnw1i:

I. 'r'(Hl hU!\I!OSl mIJusurcd by the nrn(.:'HlII'I,!.~nnl\Jd Uf~ll. were nssullwd to shlfl yichfillg in HIe third

year oller plammJl, ruHmv It cnhnrt U~UHU palWtn. nud .!mil Ihut'IH4tnmry ot 'mnlur~' hll~ht!sln

lhuir t'U~hth yent.

2. J in~h ug(J cnhtltl m' vlIll.ngu WI!\ r.~l\.!ill~urcd by Ihl.! hlt~rcU~(l In I.h\.~ lolnl pl,lutcd orun fmm nne yenr

to Ill'" nux" 'nils WUN donI,! hCf.'tlUSI: ttl!! dn'" gl\'(! nn Infutnmtluu on n~w {,Iaullngs ~~. Inm

cXCCpUOlllU this rule rur U!)M!SfoIilln new NtIHlln.lts IN in pcriuds IbllnwlUn mitlur arcn dccn.'i\'tcs .

. t No nllnwnm:o 1S mad", rur lea hush wortality. tfl,uNlntlsHcs dunl with IhmlSfmdlt nfhltClnrUS mlhvr

Hth~dnsum &.PotSJct

lhnn ubu$h~oum~

~t tnl~lmmiu 1949 (lSSk .h~) wns IlsHumcd Jol~1 maLUrubut luu~cd \)f rclUtbUltuUol).n WitS

llNsutncu th~~tdO% or ,1m! "re"·n~cd~'1 tChnbUlII)HfmUtld UIl\tlmlf IlfU)}/i W()u)(J tnku; oneyonf~ mtd Inc mhct hnlf tWtl )'(!!lfS* tu tcludymt{ltU. As such. ~{)% Jofncdmu6 y~llr~nld (:c.ihnrt: ut.,! 2()% JOfUC~UH.l 7 y~arltoJd COhOtf~ jnle~e ASS\HnpU(m1tnt~ in keeping wUbl'Juute~ lnr th~ ncslcclcU nrolls rcmwnJcdnmJ rt:clnlm~dtnI949.5~ (80 k hnl, nnu· tJUdH~ the l'itsf 5 .. \'(,nu"I)lnup\Wuo fir S3 k, nn (Cfl(!tl t~hunn, HIM. 11t 5(3)l

~, Of u,~· Jocnm!lu III ntcl't~tw'\~n 1049nnd 1954~ ludfof UIU Jltcn wns u~Rum(!dm bc< ~n the N{)CP.~~ ufrulHllHlltiUIUlh joilllUttth~ 6 y~nr~uld cu)mtl* nmllmH'woR: ns~umclJ 10 be UIlWlllutHlnn.

{tl'ur ~m.'h )!cnr fmm. Jt,U)'l .tn'lJltJS~ thcl.tlrr{!~ls~ in men wns l\fi$UJUUd. tu he dividud \:qlWUy

bct\,,"t~cn 1l"W phmJ.jug6' uHd rchahilunUcm or nrcitsduUhml gnuu OUl: urrtrtKJocUou durmg thu )'~.mrs of nillurul t1~51U~h!r (J t}(JO.()~J

1 All mature bU!itlc~ werc nssmm~d to h~ phlckv.d.

K l",w\~ft'J~ HI till {utili tlaUurmf 1l1'C~1 tl(1()O"(l~, ffJIm, It.JK,J"H(h mul{tJKK) wafutrcIU\~d n~ remm'uJ~

fmlll UI~ lm1,U!!l melt.

tJ Thl.? ,J,Hn gni~~ nn mh\UHafluU un U1fHhng, nbaudmwd nnm!) m lCfllitfUmg ur ~XiSIU1D IlrCIiS wUh

lum hu~ht:ltnHlJi pn:vcnJ!'1 u h.Hcr Illudcf 1i1'IccUII:nluul sud} its \h~ IIm~rUilUmm) nlUdel uf

AJiJ!i.lUlJit A, 'nard. {jJ1Mj\l dud 1*J)!l11J}

U, nrnml:Hn~ UlC datu hy ilNc t!uhurts nr vml.iIQc~, hW Ittrm.:lmcs an.} hum mtu tilL} uue sC\luunC'c.

'flu,1 mod!'!(· llii (htm CSWlmIJ!lI m tcrm~ uf J:Js.!~ tnItH:r than !~~IOPI. 'f'hct\c twu an: refilled by tfm Identity

Ulal tilt' tWt'rnU iJycmgu X!t.!hl m uny )'I.mr -,' rlUJ!il cqunl tnllll.Quuml thvid~d tty (hI.! hHol ~;rPD uf lun:

Till' U\~riH!\! ~'lcld lur It JlCfCUflidl crop IJl un:; llUt.! ~~ilr Will lw (.lctl.1nmll\!lI h> (hI.! !l!;~ILlnru.!.UJ. uf

the plnmh Ihal aw III the dillcrcm IIgc llrml()/i m IImt ),ellt. 'nils fclnUouslUp Iii t!XIHChM:tI JI) l!f}Unlhm

.3 wiler!.! fhen.' ltftl ,\\<o pmpnt'llntl vH'ldhJmi. PtMf und Plil tlJprctlcmmg Ille tcl .. Hvt' Hmuunt of the fclt nrcn

lhal lS mil/Ut'll IUltllllwwllIH' w uny Ulm yellf."

7

Whctll: i'. Is lhc nvcfllllllVOfllgO teu yluldf in KDnu"ln yenr l, (t ~Wf;O to 1089);

I'~t ht Ihu 11ml\(ltUnn l)f Ih\,l t¢it nmll.lhnt Is JUIHUfOltl yent (, I~K is 11 11tOpofthm. or Ih~ hm nnm Hlin fSil<)fcntinfly yiuldiml bUI !UUtlIlUJrl.l in YUftf t;

l"t Is It rent .tcn ,trice mdCxWHl PurclmsIJPtl'~p lndc~/Pt}{HJ R~tl1iJ Pflcc Indt:;x) Ibt th~p{)~t·(~uJtutIlJ nuvnluHnn r~riud, I.\l, NHl~'1l tQ7H~

Un Iii tln~ int.v.l.l~Cf\( t~llnslmu !lnd rt:Jlr~~cm~ Un!cnntrihutiun uf Ihose. nnms omiUod ftum tho e,sWWUluu;

UIII lIS Ihe' f1ammch!t ttll lhl: Pf'tlfRltI.ion of .Uloturu rmw, Mlllmny IS nSlHlmcd tu p(! from yunr~R;

J~I IN the pi,mUlIH.t:r fur lh~ pntl!nUnll~ )'iuldiIiU hut !mmultlrc leo lIr4m (In fnel .• only thu cnclTlclUIlt

fm the 11ropor'ttnn of 1I!It Hllt\t( () jIm], " ~'(MrN nIt.! Wll~ slIUlHh:nnlJi

Up is iI Nil.:\.! n.R!fll":Hml~

I~, lit II bS! ul duuun), rMlillUci\c'(fot tnt' p\mmh ul 81p,rHllI.:aJlt floll~:Y t'IIlHlgC. fur lJ~lUn,lIc, (hI.! ~Cilr~ uf

IhllUl'ul DJSASTt:f (I'Jltt,·(fl); Ihl.' lltlJU\tJII~'Ul lltmmJ IlADJ Ot)(~l",~}; nnd Ii Icnnthy WlUlHph~j

poh\.') r.:wmc tUP( H J('Y i tlIV,,'Wlll huth 'hit Cultural IttwnlUlIWl ilwl UI\ Unnwduuc uf!crHliHh

n (}{)'i. '110) It JJJJ!~ tlw 1J1Ilhtl Jvturm y,'Oflii ul I 'J7(} In I'JH4 ~

OJ l~ the ctror I.ernl

'11n~ model hlkcb oUh:lill fWun!s ill fnrc villu\.' und I1SSUIl1t.HI ttHlllnt'rcltsl.!~ In tOlll!unm INucfnl.ly

rc/'cn to Ui.lW pJamm!tlil Tlw n:llfcxs\nn rt!fIj!lH~ iU'~ pW.li:I.!UfcdIH 'fnhh~ 3. 'flle u\?ttmH 'fHI j~ uxlflHll'dlultN.

1>1 yt)od (ur n )'J\!Jd IJUl(kl wllh II t:om!cl~d ){.! of f),f)l 'n)~~ Durhin '\Vllt"fHJ tcst l\uJUt~"ts lJun UUICl~

lurrt'lillloll '" nul 1\ prnhhnn.

IJ!4l11_ 3 aMi Jl~<ttu ... ton n ... u~ttl tm; f14til:.ltHUhl y.hHI~ IIlOdllJ, Uu(l " tlJlHI

llrltaH'ld*"Jlt V4thblt j .• MW Til. yxatln n«lgrf~"or PfU·~tfI"tn CQQtUI1~f*nt tH:lHJdlu'Q Hrl:ot~ 'l',nltt!o

"

,I • t:. In. e ~

r, .' , I' j,; I r • ; ~ I j

q , i I

J! .1 0.': t1\;i; f"pl'.:' I. }"... I df' ft !jl , III i ' I.j. '01,.' tI 1.1/ ;, ','

t I ! II I,' " If ." 1 .~ ,~ ,', \)( f , ,j til, ,.,. ! I ,~

'mo cmU'nr:lums or OnUilUOU 3h!lV~l() h~ Irnnsrormcd 10 obmtnthQ \lUI\1 ~Iul(t coufnclQntsw 'nJ(~· I,tlU,srurmntinnis douu by mulUl,lyhlU 'hmu"h by thu l'llnl urea (A, 1 nod cullccUnUlOflUff, fnH~

cncm\11~m rot HIll tlftWOl'ttou uf' fhQ Ilr~n UUltiti m;Hur~ Is hJ~hty s{gnHlcnnt, tllllstmnsromt~ Inlo lin

(WCI'UUU )fleW or nbmH 48~, kUnll\ uhu ~um ut~ J~'l nnd J};; JIUI 1 H5,5 '*' 296,5). In)l.~ cncmcJcn~ n)r Ull,)

Unnmmrc. nr~n Ohl! Rum u{' J)lnnUn~H or Ult~() om! 7) Is signlrl(mnt. '1110 trnns"()tnn~d yl~Jd ,~()urnciUIU 1I8S!' IHO) nnpJicR nUlt bushes ur~ this "Su cutllrlb\ucd v~ry 111(\(.1(0 mHpu, whUu 1It1 ulhor b\l:JhoN fOlWlhcr

"(~mrihufcd 185 kl4~la, I\n orHclo by (:Idncsp sJ:ho)nrs cnmcmJs Hml IHlU<umJ yloJds {(lrORumnbJy tnnfUru

ylcldlt) have mlHillnud cnnstllHllH nhmn .U')S kWhn sineu HMQ <Shun Kc.tll find WlIU'1 himiuy, 19B7}. 'nus figun: Is v~"Y {.·Ius~ to our USllllliHI.I.

'111e prh:c vMmh't! is tdnnlnl:llIU 1111\1 of tlw rluhf sfl'lh hut (he fmr1Hclf cfnsllcfl)t (sullJy nhmll IOU

nnd i~ugRQsl~ Om, price hus nOI hell/) flU tmpUfl.iUlI dl!lUrmllln.llI of mHJlIlt. dC(~Jl'mUlsl 'nj~rQ JW(!dH W bu

11 gn.mt ~l\!ilJ ur 8ClJpll",'lsHI fl.'gnnliuu tllC: UPllrl)prllltcucss ul' Ihls or uny nlh~r l1ricfJ RcricH In m~mmrc (hI)

dcgf\,'U tH 8\1(\I)ly UI4'~nUV!) rU~l.!d hy prot.hlt'Ufl! Illr~ In nddlllnn tu lilnndnrd IlrtH:lIrClHl.}UI prl(:cs, Ihem WL1fC

honus prICe!), :tub~hJh!s nut! 'hilHVf' nlln~'lIllnUIt of hJI)UI~ h,'!lcmJcul "eruU>!,!.} Imd (~lIWmmflUon goods

{n~c nnd culton clotlo, Funhcllnnttl. i~\lch II IlI'I",'u IntfCl th)C1\ 1l00luhc info m:cnunt t:lmnguR In tllu ,'OMs

nr prndUCtltlH rn nddltHIU. Irnm n ImllL! year 01 I ')~2. IJH! IHlJ~!x or Ih~} t~l!lllYs plln:llIIsu t)rlc~~ 01 fUll to

l!nUH!JI W\lN u~cr toO until (ltlX. 1iHln~ wll\!11 it th'~' hlhm sharNy. 1\11 tlh.! thHlUII~1 \.'ud IU:I!lIlt!! urt' !\lillllil1~'illl)! /ill}UUJII.'llIIt lind. hut for th~\ IIdJusl.mt:tU j1\H'lod, tire

UC~~iJllW The dUlJuUY fur the )L'M~ oJ 'hllUt'ill lHSI\h'lcr (l(mI/1, til II possih/{! nrlll~pnlic)' VUflllhh,!.

Durnil» '1)lJf[kllml." fur thl.! Culluml nt'Vlllllllnn and UN UlIItlL!diIiIC 1Ilh,mmHh (1(){j~nH) nlld lIun for Ih~l

uHlwJ houschnlil rlJ~p01JMhUH} rcform ~l'ilf" oJ W7fJ1R4 w(mJ \ltlr)" similar tlwl Wt.IJ'C Uwrclhrc l'Klolcd

lit CqUilllol'J ,. AHhnU!,I,!l Ihctic t'~~fl"l'."cnl dllllim"1 polk)' rcgulIcs. bnlll had Slmnl!ly HcViltlW l'oL!1 rh;i~ms.

'l1ltli tlllpllc~ lhnt Imlll had fh!llllllW JlUPilCI~ Oil h:urnHlI) nUlpul, The r\!liull hlllhc CullumJ Itt'YoJullnn

~:(1Ullt he cxpluin(.!d hy fhe dJWrRIOfI of l!lICO,llaN lnwmd~ Ifm JUil"NIW (lfilll(flllJ pmgrllJn thal wns

uUlh:rlilkcl! dllrHlI! UII~ rwnnd. 'Illt,' highly /legliU vt! Rclorlll ~'ul,!llIl.'hml cOllnnn' OUf' IHllll'l!sNlons

(dIM'U/dll.'d below) 01. dl!iIU'f'iI~ III lIIilllil~wnWili pnu.:tw/,.t!, for II fWft,'lllllill t'fnP wlil!n' cllllpcnlllvc u\~lilln

had tWCfHUl.! MIWU l"'IIIl!,

The wkuHx Hie plnlWd Ul F"4Ul'C ~l I PIlI.Hht*" wllh Ihe OWl'll" uwm~t' ytchl lind CNfllnllll.'d )tIt,ltd

t:o\!ITICICI11 MH2 kg/hll), 'l1lc filtl.'d vulncN ollha '1(I\Hltllm um:k IIII.' IWlllal YI~~lds llvN tllL' fwnml l'}~{)

lu I t)Hl) wry well.

'Ill(,.! fl<Jxr QU<!6(fClIl ((1 "Ilk lh wIlY 1H1l11lfl! )'tufdli um fltl Inw. 'null 'I; U (,'I1I1lJ'lllIX llt.ll'SUO/l to whh:h

nllly II pllrllillllnNw~r t'1Ul he uiven hei'e IHc\! Hllwrltlglnll & r'tWillef. I{)()', Chapler (ll. Slillhlk" tll/lhe

.u!!U;'wt!!. or Imrvcl'IWd. IIn!H~ under hI/HI IIiIVl~ hCt'Ollw puhlldy Ilvallahlt! sIUt.'t! I 'JH2, 'J'1I4! unUollill diltu

nrc Ulvt'n in Tuhlu 4.

ACTUA~ & ~ReDICTEO TeA Yle~C

aoo m .. ~

,~ •.•• ,"'."'+"',...,+(::'" ,'t"'+"'+"~),l""".,".",.",.,,"'t,*"''''.'::+~' i.".~+~'+*'*""'f'~' •• ~"*'N",,ft+.,· ~=

~r:(j , , '.1 t It1 t 'ttf f t f"r r If'T 1'1 T't T , f rr f 'J' IT '1 I' itl 't"1 '1 io~n 10~!} 1000 I)I'.I~ 1fl m 10J~ 1!JrHl 1un~ 10M

't' n A fI /'j

~~1i;~,*,~,~'~II; mill , ,q:;;,j~~·~_.tW!~~~$",;jJ,M!I'U: #iI.~_.1$. ~~~~~~~~~~~

"·'guro 3 Stnlfsticul !\1mlcl H(.lsuHs

Tuhht 4 Mutu".1 At'~Ut OUIJwl *lnd '1\", Yldd, HJH~ tn IIJBI) oJ ,n.: ~~, ~M.·-W~~:#t!I'.·.~·J"~),\I'I,.'I)lIt4;M~~.,~r~i\T,I6¥·'II~ .. "J:5ItIi"'~ ~r-~~+~~~~

I\I~ 'I: A OU'I'A'lJ'r \'n:l~nH ;~~~,*,~~~\ll ;, '1"r.r"rHf~ ~~~t~'~·~I:_l~.OC$'~1J!.t.I,IQ:,~I~~

" e .. " 'I'ntnl Mntmlc i'hwk"d 'r~;"ll ltI!H:k. il

Cl\tmll.'lJ {()n1clnl) ---"--,-- I 'MI'*, ._* ;tt¥.~"'.·4,'~.f j .~,~ll'lf:ll\J!~_~"~·~

I I loon 1'000 Hln,,} rk.~/lluJ

JI)Hl I,OflJ nIl) n/H~ )~4j 12~~

19HZ I,on tW2 7~2 'iWI 3Cl2 5211 It)R~ LlO~ IJ~1 ~lR~ 401 ,n~ ~JJ

1')X4 Lon 1,004 'nH -t III 1X4 ~'2 Il)S~ 11045 l.nln 7{)(, 4'\2 dl3 ~~()

If)H6 I lOt,,, mu R04 4(\1 4!i? ~n

If)X7 1.(H4 I)(}O H{)f) ~rlH 4J'/i h2N I'JXX J Io.~() IJXO 81~~ ~4~ ~ le, ()()II

ltJRlJ 1100(, H22 fi1~ !)O2 MI I']I)!) J non H21 !ill!.! fiO' Mfl -~. 1II'_,Ut.,J .(~':;'.""',~.!I'i ~- - 1II;'.fii~~.,,'l dS!AJ.,~~QiI!ii

~ n/lh inOll1 yuiluhlu l• &Ult.~: PIU,' (,lIf11l1 AS/Nell/trim' )'(ltII'/wok. vHrlnUH ~Clmh IImJ t'COOOIllI.lI.rIl: IllIXf\..'I.

10

tl1\~r~ 16 n wi do dlfJi'fPUCU (~43ktm In tOWn IHHwcou thl) lulUllU'~n \lud Ihl> plu~k~d Uf(l!\, MORt

pnbUcnUOHS UHQ UmpJmlSQ "t)hlt~kudU ('.~lIft//UtJ uti 1Illrvcs(cd {,rluJU/uw l ur~1\ mt.lWr Hum HmnlUfu" (cluwgllllg or wut'luw) tlr~u. '1110 dlsUncUnnbolwccU IheBc 16, howcvur. ImpUtllUH, In guuurnl, NU,'kud (JmrvcstUtJ) nr{.)n con tm J~aH Umn or urQlltcl' limn tho: nuHU(O nrunl but Is most Hkoly to be IcssdJlmtho mnlurQ nrcn~~ CluJ' HlnUsUcuJ yf~ld~wllmlllt) lH bused on thQ IIRS\Hlll1t1nn HIIIJ JllJUtl,r~ fmms llf.Q lIlU'Vl,l~I.od, In 1 ()M2 nud I f)80. official 6\tHI8H~8 hl(!htd~d flgurus furJll;~ nrUilS, tflliN nddlthllHtl drun nUnw utlo to cnlculnlu nn Jm'mH11tQ unlit us n rcstduuh tou~l .111'011 ,1. r.hl4!I(~d Urulh ~~ Ih!: nuw Jlrun. On this basIs, 1n 1082 n tOlnt or 256 k hn wuuld hu clusscd liS "Jmmlllufu", tly H)8Q, mnst of this u(ua ahullfd havu joJnud lhu plUf~kud awa. (3\I( HIU pluckud nnm only IUCfUnmJd by 10 k, hll! It "Iflher I OS k WUR HIlII "lmmmurl.l"."

'111u ImNlculinn til' ,huIII,) flUllnm Is Ihul (his (csldllIlJIs; JlU1 Hhul1Jy un hlUnnltlru IIron hut Includ('!lJ 1I1HlnthmLld IIml fwglL!Cll.!d III\UIlS uJ' lell liS wun. '11I\H CUlu!hIHiuf) cnnfornlH In nur rrortmnnl fluid ohHcrvnilnns (in I ()H1 t tlW~ 't)O lind I f)f) I}. Wu frmml muny mnllll'o hm U(.!lds In n Htnlu of HUVlUO fH:ghlCI. In ZhgJillIllt nnd

I\lllmI11nl\'lflC~S, Iht!r(.l wen: InrUI~ nfUlls or WII on hllhdd\!s Wh!Jt'olh~lrl)WH or lUll hushUN forlned cnlllhnum~

lillI'S IIlong conluurli, When! thm'u wen.: Ict'rlIl:cs, HIf,!NU Inu w,m) t,lmlliUlHllls nvcr tllNtUllCCS or son 10 J 1000

mctfL\N. ~ll1C age of UI~I lmshuH In Ih~l rows gcmwully UPPiJurctl to hit HullnllUl, IImJ con»lsl\,:fI\ with n

cot\ccnlrntcd p~~rjml of plnullng. Huw!}vcr, Ihl.! culluml prll(!llcas wllilin (he fluldl'l vurlod ~ln.!lllly, so lIult Iht!

underlay Ol uniformity WIIS uvcl'lnld hy II patchwork 01 IdnullllrullIh Humo of whit~h wcre wl,lll UlnlnlnhllHI

while ullwrH wew iult!sh.!ll wllll \N~cdl\. Snnl!J plutH wum in prmhlClhm, S(lUlU hnd Iwur-Iwluht tHHdlOlh wlllh.'

OllHWi hud rc!.'umly h!.!l!H JlflllWd.

V.f t~mu:IUN'()n!;

WI) confJitltlu 1.llal lilt: 1illlllsllclJ, C()/l!ulllflOl'llry guwrnllwl\t policy, lIud uur neld ohscrvut!lllls fllIiul

It cnnslshHH ph:IUfC:

'; Uw \fury rllpillln~~rOIl1iO III Chllln'k hhl outp\IIl\nd uVlmll'.~! yl~~lds III the IOH()~ WIIS primarily dUI! In

II rUllld cxt111ll!linn In tun IInw during Ihu Cul/urlll JhlVulution rnlher Ihan tilt! Impu'*l ur tllt! reform ern;

• nwrngu y'",ldH III {,lIlnn (.tt'U wry low und this sllunlHm tiltH not Unproved under Jlw household

(uliponslhilHy S.yslt!Ul UN clnluwd by IHUIH,! scholars [Muckurrns IIl1d Yorko I')()I. p.Hm,. HUlllcr, Inw

yields lite pUrllully duo t.o tim poor Illllintcunm:o nml ~'"rn.Hll nCHl~t'l of leU nr~nli undur tlw /lolilichoJd

r~RpnHslhlllly HyslCm [Bthtlrlngwn & h)rHII.!l' 1')9', Chnplt\J' (II,

~ I.ho C~hlllCIl(~ WI! Industry Is tJIlIIJrlllU 1\ <ju/llltnllvoly dllfcnHlI phmw 11l1.IN uXlrllunUnllry hiMoty. 'l'h",rc

Is 110 longer Iho cushlnll uf pUsl plllllllugli 10 rul)1 upon. 1~lIlhl!r, Ihe HI IlU II!lC II It'll I lind Utilhillllllll of

IJxlstlnJJ.lllnnllllgli HW going In Imvu In Iw IUlproved to Huslllin tlw /lust ,'!lW oj' growlh in tllI/flUl nnd

UXI'IOt'tH.

• If UlII!lIW yields do nut iIlCI'CIISU HlgnlfJcllnlly, Chllln's owrnlllcvcl of II.!II prOdlH'lioli hUH rcUdlt!d II

plnl!.!IIU. TIIIJ 11UrftU'IIl11HCO of' Chllln'lj len illthlHtry sill' . ICJH'J uive c:rL'dl,lucc to IIl1s (~nrH.·llIliltm, In

11

lOH9, 1110. outlml of tli:H "lccUncd tor th~ i1rst Umo sinco 1 f)(i3 (Q.Xl1nf\lh how¢vcr, cnnlinuQ() to

hlCfOilNO). OUltmt SlIIbUiscd in 1991hmd c{mllllucd at uhout 540k ttlnS In1991nnd 1992. lb~t)nrIN

ducllncd,tn 199U ngnhlln 1991 bmrCC(lVOrcd to the 190 k ton loval In 1902 (suol·1tglH'~l'I 1 & 2.),

VU. Nulhmnl nml hlhH'nnHmmllm))lcnthms In recont yCi\t's n HlIml~r or orgnnlsnJions within nnu mHsidc Chinn hl\\'u mude highly optimisllc

m~dl\l UMcrm pro.lCtltlnns I'm' Chinn· s 101\ production and oxports. til 1988 tho StHtu Council nnd in 1989 tlw

Inl1mmtilll Hcmwmic l>aily wore t;uggustillg highly sj'lO,mlllUvc output flgm'os 01' 900 k IIlld 1 million tons

b)' th\) turn t~r the century. Ruddy. in his annlysts or tho nln\lal ten sc~nnriol cxtrnJ~olntcd past tronds 10 haw

ChitlCS~1 OUlput (uXpmls) rcn~~hlng 1.4 millions (5M k) lonl) by 200HHcddy 19(1). 'I1Hl8th }live Your l'lnt)

Is sliU ambitluus, calling for (lStI, 400 ano 2~O k lOlls of onlpul, dml\~slic UHO lind oXlmrls rospl.!cl!vcly for

1995. Itmw\,cf. IWlll)l'tUng tu 7.hllng, 1\ doyen llmong lh~ ncndcmics ot' I.ho Chlnuso len Industry, the output

largpt hns f~cunll~' hl!cn rt,!\'ls~ld dowllwnrdlo 61 ~ k lUns with 220 h tnns being uVllilnhlc lbr ex pori (Zhang

19<-)2). Zhang's uutpul estilllate Ibr the end or tIle l)th Plan rWI'imllll 2000 is 700 k tonl'l with exports of 2~()

h IOll~.

DomcslH.' cOllsurnplltlH 0111:11 ill China gn!w at over t)jfYr, owr Ihl.! whole panml It)()5 .. SS. Over the

1~1l >'cafs \'J7H·XN it grew III ahout 11 'if lwr IUUHlf11. ZlliIng'h hgUI'Cli imply Ihlll this filII! will slow down to

I~,'i' than ~q; J'lel' annum. Tins III t\l1'I11111plics Ihilt the HWUIllC cluxtld.t>' 0/ duumutl will e1ml) well below 1

(n Uguru more tllIllI suslilincd OWl' the hm )'Cilrs 10 1981'5)' We cOl\shlcr thIs to he unlikely giV~I.l Ihe

t'tlnllllUClI raptd '"~~nHlsc~ In Incomus III ('Imlil and Ihe filL'1 that P(.'f cupita dtllHcMlc cOllsumpllnn lags well

hehlnd the lI:v!.'l,,, uf olhl.'l' milJor producing cmlntrH:s i\l1d olher ChilwSQ couuHunlllcs. In Chhlih lea is sllll

It luxury pl'lxhlt'! both In hll'H\S of th~ sill! 01 thl) II\I.'OUlC cloll!icity or demand I\ml in the S\.lIlSU lhlll it is

pnl'culX!}'Olld the rClld\ of the awm~e C11I1CIl, Pill'IH:~ltnrly Han ChlllUhC pCllsnnls tn nnn·l)t(llluclnp; ilrCilS

The IIkt-'; (olllinul:d lIlCH'iI'il' 11\ dPIlWSIl\.' thmlilllli (l1It1 our h1lllisllCdl illllllyslS or len >'i!.-Ids sug!!,,':,1

Ihill tlw len hlt!Ul;try III Chlilil Iii lacm!! i\ lIlill!!! \:nsls: It ts III~lIlly Ulllikl!l)' 111111 supplh's will he IIble In \.'uh.'r

[or rUIUl'~ 'rend., in dnm\,'lilh: l'ollslImplilln Hnd export IlIllhiUnl\s. (liven Iho rapid (.'Xplll\~l(ln 01 Illlcl'nulh ..

uxpon}i, we t'onSlll~r that lli", Ml'uctuml U'lIllsfOl'malhm cxpcl'icrwcd h)' Ih!.! II.'it induslr>' III Tmwnn dlll'ill{! Ih\.'

I ()H()~ \l.llll'.lart 10 ll\:(.'ur nn the ttllllllllllld h~I'ur~ the mIn of Ihe (~clllur)' I hlh~nll~lon & I:orslcr I ()U21· I'he

ImpUcnllon Is that Clulln will not he posing the 1111'1.'11110 Ih\'~ 'world wa market lhlll nppcnn.!d It) he t1w Ci\S,,'

ill the hogilUlillg ur this dUl.'nde.

lI'ollh:illly. out' r~~llru~slnn r~slllls suggest Ihlll (here.!!i Indeed iI IMsil: t'1l11slsICllC), in Chillil IS Ilnliollill

lea stnllMics. lJnwt~vl~r. our results will IlnlIwlp the Wtll'ld Bunk 01' illl>'hudy else with forwllrd proJCCliOlt li

purllculilrly 101' the InturnllUOllill markel. F!r~l, hUClluso lilt! 'cut/sc· 01 PitS I output intTCIlSCS hilS comr1cII,,'d

Us tmpul.lllnd It will bu tlil'ncult In prcdlcllh,· Impllct of future chnngch In pollc>', To rccstnhlish Iho olltput

growth of' Ihe ImlmMy mil)' rcquiro suhSlillltilll (l.mrgnllislllioll or [hu multiple hllfClIllt'rlK'ics f:\lm~lItly

12

rcsp{)J)glbh.> forrunnlng thll hldustty! Sl!cot1dl~} bccnu~Q th~ commOgUYl)1' r(lnl lnturcSI 1.0 thu 11l\Crnntiol1l\l

tOil uultkcllsblnck t~n, t111ls cur(cntl~ uUlkcsnp less. UUUlhnlf of Chlnt\tR Icn exports but lh(! potential

nlwnys oxist!; fot switching tlllUlUfl)Clutlug between green lind, bhlC,k ton ft'om 11 Biven output, of grat.m hmf.lI

Some nf ChlntllS m~Uor ton pmduclng proVhlCQS have madc such switches in fho recent 1.11\SII

'):110 struggle to rcinstntc lho Chinese tcnhtdusttYI both domQstlouH>' tlllt! lntcmnUmH\llYt to Us runner glory hns heen n length)' llnd porslstcnt mlP._t\llhm~uh Chinn Is now the wo(ltPS HocnmJ lIu'gunt lon o,~pmll,1t

behind ImUn. Us Ilositi(m nmy weU rnll back to thlnlplnf:o bchlml Kunynhy 1995 tWmJd Dllnk 1990. fl.

76]. 11)c capacity of China to Increase yIQhh~, rnisu ompUl nuu cntch up with tho. rost or thu world shuuld

not be ullduroslimalcd. Howeverl ills must Ukely uun tho. domestic murkc{ wm ralllin lin evur 'lnct'cnslng

~rorlortl{)n or China·1) output.

NO'l'l~S

1. The Icum' 'k ' folluwing H t\umhur !tllmns!i!m. n thoUSllUd, 'lin' (It' 'hu' rolc!'!; to hCClnl'CH. 'TUIiSI nfC· mUlri,: 'nm)c~,

2. The l(lllowing equations nr~ fur till: pcrlndl')()llu l(IRC) A" Implied h~ Iho R2s, Ilip coefficients nrc highly sigmlkmll,

(J) Out.put = ·794{)f) + 17J48t (t c 19M/HI) RJ ;;, O.C)~ (II) t.tl Output ~ 4,2154 + O.07SH R: ~ 0.90

The base fur thl.! pnljccUnus in lhe lex\ is thG S~OI()OO tons of output in 1 (jl)(), Reddy <1 ()CJ J) (.)litlmiU(lS rates of growth ulllllc period ltJ74·8R nnd pmJI.!(.·I~ OUlput of l.4l4,(){)() lIH1s In 2001 AD.

3. Thlh part of Shannxi is nhotH the same Inllllluu nlrl Kllhul. C)'lll'US, Algie"" Wnshlngtnn n.e'l Snn l'runchllu Inlllc tlol'lhcl'H hClIlisph\;!fC or CUllhcl1'tI. Cnpl! ')'own ur nUCIH)!' Aires In the smith. It has nil unllulIl Ilvcmttc lcmrwrnl.urc or 15'1('. 1495 .. linn hO\ll'lot m I\unshinc nnd n 1'11111f1tll of hclwCCIl ROO· 100{) HIm.

4. TlIu .. nnly two tllthc rltllcnUnllJight prurnrliOlmJ vm'inhlcs lUt' \Hllld in 1~IUlllitlll 3. Tn "void a siligultu' mUlrix, tlt lCII!il one rlrl)pOl'llnnal vllriable Ims lu he olUittPd IIlld thih IS "uhsumcd into the IIHcrcupl term. tn 1m.:" (111)' the illl/nature f\tor(lI'liun mm\,! liP of the orclt uf (; !llUl 1 )'CfII'S or ngo is Included In Ihe flnnl C);Utnatitl1' t!'llllitioll. Tea plants y()utl~ur lh~1Il61illlkc lUI jn~ignmcmll (slllllsticn\) \,'{mtrlhulinll to uvcmllylcld

5. If J',mm!turc nrCI\'~ urc hnrvQs!cd. Ihe plu~:kL!d nnom cnn :> the lIulturc men. II registered :lfCIIS of h.!U ure lint being hlll'VClIlcd, theu the plucked Itf\!!\ will h~ ~ thnn thu mnlllfC nrcil This is \YJlh.mllll C"hhlll.

6. There WOUld, of courso. Mill h" !lome illlIlIIllllrc pluHllngs from IhulI\! flew IItlJt\S plnilled In the Imcfvul This would nprl~ purtkulnrly to YUllnulI pwvillcu whh:h hns Iwen expanding I.ts IIren OWl' tho whole pel'iod

7. Our I.Hillmulo of the income ChlRliclty (If lIcIIlIIUtI fur I.CII In Chlllll is 1.17 for till' period 1972 In 19HR A parullcl (!sllnmle "or TuiwUIl Is well uver 1.5 mthurlnplon nud Forster 191)2, p. ~t to).

H. This 'swlt~hlilg' bQlwccu I1ml) product. VIII'hHh,1N Is well rC~(lglllscd, Fur CXlllllpicl soc UUIl ctlll, II)e) I. l' 24. The pussihlliUcs rur this huw bc~m mlllh" !'.w~!Il mot'C I1cxlhlc hy Ihe devulopment HI Chilln nf \CChliologlc" 10 matlUfilCtllJC black ICtt frum BUlle grecn leu (Ouo I'l ttl Jl)Q l),

13

,\klyntl1tl, 'r, IlUU TdYcdi,)l,K. 0987u). A New O/fllml rca Madel: $lu!clfl"(1fWn, BstimmUm (ltul

~\'lmulm(()fI,WorldUfmk Smff Commodity Workiug PIlVUt8 No, 17 ~ tWu,qlHnguHlI J),C" ~nlo

World lluuk),

Akb'Utlln, T. itnd ~l'tiv~di, 1).lt \ 1981b), 'VintagQPmduction ApptunrJh to lllJfcnnlnl Crop Supply; All

.Applicnlion (0 Tea In MnJot l)rmluclnsCoutl1rJcs'.l(mrnal (if Itc{wolllt!lrics. NUl 36.1lJ). l33~ 161-

Oui f{tltl)'UtUl, Chen X'lnuxnnu und Jlans Yongwcn (1 (91), ~Svndm Pwgnumno und ChitU;IRO 'fell Prndm~Uun .. A Cnsc OfUl~ !"rogrnmrlH,li'l\ PrqJl,lC( lmlllcmct\tctJ by 'I'(~u HIJRilnrchJUNtilutC. of CAAS·. Pro"('('tNtiRS (ift/I(! Jmcrttr1limwl M(lcltng()fI 1f!(l ltl/ormcUion, Cl)nngt.htllh truu HUNCMCh

Jnstlhll~. Chlm~s~ AcmJclHY uf AgtlcullUrlil Scium:mn. Pp. ~1 .. 4.

(~hcn ChUiHl, OV84) •• A C{Wfpt(~/l('nstWl nlsltJ~' oJ lite 1t(/ Imlusfl'.v (nclJinl~. "t;r;,m/tnrnIPubUshcr!» Un Chjnu~c.).

nlheringlont Jl M (H)87). ·Oultl<!lincs for hio.ccnnmlUc modelling of teu productlun nnd proccsNm~

in Chinn lind (~MohJjhlmlg effectivu rCMHlrdl producer Huison·, (Hcport. prcrlHrctl I'or th~ pAO.

Rome). Auyust. Pp 72

l"U\lJrtfllllon, IJ M" (1 t)9{)),' An h;l)noml~ iUMIYSlk HI n pI Mit ~I~IISHY expcnnwnt 1m tea in China,'

Tr(Ij'lHIlI AJ/ru ntum', Vul (J7 NnJ Jul~, Jt 24"i .. 25(t (LOllliorl, Uuncl'wm'th S!,!hmtHk)

htlll,mU!!loll. {) M. lind hltMcr. f{" (PJH'h "nlc cumplcx ~:i1~U of Ihu t'hlnctlc hm lmlustry't fl'twd

Rcwt.l1tll ItWtlutt' SlUr/it'S, Vol. al. Nu " p. 2()fi " ~()8.

hthctmglOu, lL~llUld J;nrMt!f. It (I ()02J. j'!1w Strulimrnl Trnnsfnrrnntmu ()f Tmwlln1b TClIlndusU'>t',

\Vflrld /)(In'luI'UlcfU tVol. 20 No. '. Mun:ll. ptt 401...:f21 •.

"thl!ttnplnn. IJ M IIml hmih~t. K (l()CJ.~. ,urtlll.'llrllHltO, (Jtc'ell (/oltl: 11", Po/lllrdl hcollOlm {~f Chilla'l

/lo,\I .. /tJ!lfJ 1'('(1 Im/wll'\' Ohmp ({urJl!. O"tord Hnlwrsny Jl'W-l!<I)

f·0i8Icr. It (1')1)1). 'CIulla's 'h~il Will t (I\tlelallJtl , ChHltN'iC h:nnum~ Rcsciln.:h Unit, Unlvcfsuy uf

I\dclilldcJ. \\orkUl,e Pafwr' 91ft JUUt1.

lor\ter. K nnd hllifll'tllU m. 11. M (J{)t}J L 'ChHHltk lJynuullc Tcn Industry'. Pror'(.I(1(ltm~s (~f Ille

IntN/lclflMWI Srmp'J, 111111 {)t1 i "(1 SrwtIC.t3, tSIUluokll. Japau. ()rl!!mu~ms ('OI1IUItlWc or ISTS J. Pl1

S.24·2H.

(iuo. W F., SuklHih K. Yagl. A, 11m. K, nlld I.mh S,l Cll.)fJl), '1\ New Venture h. Pn!plln! ClnW.lSl'

Blu\.k 'r I.lil fmm Slnlc Cir!.!cn 'ft'll.' Pro( (,t'llings (If (IU' {tUN'I1II1W/hll S\"i11/1tIsml1l on Tt'11 Srwlftc*,

(ShillU)~;U. ,hlP/HI. ()rpmllIiUl~ CunUUlllc(.! ul ISTSJ. 11(1 42·,4(t

Hu Ping, (I QSO). \ A. htl~r uUrmJuclinn to Ihu kurwy of leu fH~Jds til Xh~uiaHg PruVUI(:C. Cirulli 1'('tl. Nu

(i. pp J 8,,1 \J, On t'htncso).

flu Piug. (J OW!). • A now fYr~ of s'~lciIlUtll cluHnwtlmtlNchold .. tile /suuiI.>' slutL! farm'. Chitttl n/rl, nu.

14

· Uthctlnuton &.rm'sfCr

5. (In Chineso), t.lu Sulnlnn .f!;, \VuQunmitl <c,lsJ. (WS6), Tim Nm/(Jllfll Hcmwmy (luring IIU! "Culluml RcwJlulUm;'

(19M • 1916). uructbm: HcHotlwlnng P~0111Ct8 VilbUsh~rSJ (in ChillU8~)

Ml\ckcrrnlh C. nmlYmko. A. (1991). nro Cmllllriligo Ilmullumk: 0/ ClIl1WIII/Wl'tIf)' CIIi,m (Cllmbridl~o. Cnmbridg~ UniVtH'NH>' ProNS).

Qu Vuxmg. 099 J). 'TI:u Ptudu~Uun HsUnmtcs" ~r(ltt Imillst,.)! i/allftwl. Vol. l3, Nu. 3t 1'1) 6.9.0u

Chin~NU},

l{cdd)r, V. N, (1 9(} H:CHnha! TCIl SccfUlflm 2nn I Air. PrO( eelUflHs a/II/I! ItUtn'lut/(mwl Mcmlll}l 1m n'lI In(omtdtllm. HIIHlIVIH1\Jt Teo HC~~Hu'chJns"hHOt CUI/Wile AlJmlumy nf Agricultural SClfmCl!8}. P,}. lo.'\·(}l)

R\~MM.rdl nUke. CCP Hlmim~' IlruV\uClill C,'nnuulttcc ilml Sh,mnxl Bureau or SHIUstiCli (l9H6). 1'ltt'

A.lMtr\ lit Shdd/H,'" nJwun'J. t Xwn. SI."HUI~l Pt~nJlh!1\ lfuhIIShcfs).

ShlJU K~th um) \Vau!:! Lmmlj! (tuN1,. Iti~UnMtCfi nl ("hllla'x tCilprmhumml und sale,Ii Jnt lim llcrlnd ul

Un.! 7th Hh' YC.lf 11lan • Cltmd 'tnt. un ~, un Chml,lsc).

Pcrlum. U W (1~U,f}J Agllrtlll1lr~·lllJt;ll't'l.ll'ltI('tIl lIZ fltwa13t18.JrJn8 t f"htcilllu. Aithne PrcsIi).

Ttn JVrn,I 1(,ISS· l')t}1 fV\lltUU" '!I~UC"'l (I'Janplhuu, Tca f<csl'art'll lU\IUuttfl Ull t"hIHCSlH

letl I(t,!~"im.h lustHUII.' of Ctmh'sc A 'ild~m>' ul Anfl.:ultural Sl.·t~m~\!s (I(JH()). Tt'fl Culture' (II C~lImfl

tSlMl1Jilllllt. 'leu Rl.'kt'ilfCh InMJtuh.' u1 CAAS). un Chun:sc)

\Vurld Hunk (l'JHfH Pt'IH' prn~prfh {at md/m IU'lman nJllwJl1dtlit',\, Rcpnn H14/Hl\ V()IUlH\~ n tW.lslmljllUiL 1> C, WUtlll BanJo

World n ,lld~ t I 'J'm} "lin' l'fOt/U'( 1,\ .1M lIIelliIf' J1Nt1lll1 \ i '11I1WWtbIllW, Hcpntl H 14190 VuluUlc J I

i W .. ,llIlllltuU. n C, Wurld Hunl.)

15