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Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties system works and what the parties
stand forstand for
Dr Stephen SherlockDr Stephen SherlockDr Greg FealyDr Greg Fealy
Part IPart I
How the electoral system How the electoral system worksworks
Indonesia is now a well functioning presidential democracy
Best functioning democracy in Southeast Asia (compare Thailand, Malaysia, Burma)
1999 – will the election be free & fair and without violence? Will the military withdraw from politics?
2004 – will direct presidential election succeed? 2009 – refining & developing the system Now in second stage of democratic governance
reform – eg. Anti-corruption Commission, Constitutional Court
2009 – Year of voting frequently
There will be 5 (possibly 6) elections in 2009. 9 April – Legislative elections
National Parliament (DPR) Regional Representative Council (DPD) Provincial “Parliaments” (DPRD-I) District “Parliaments” (DPRD-II)
8 July – Presidential elections (1st round) 8 September – Presidential elections (2nd round) Third parliamentary election (1999, 2004, 2009) Second direct presidential election (2004, 2009)
9 April Elections
DPRDPDDPRD – I DPRD – II
Election results2.5% threshold (seats)20% threshold (president)
Cow-trading (dagang sapi)
8 July 1st Round50% threshold20% in 66% provinces
8 Sept 2nd Round50% threshold
October
DPR & DPD inaugurated
October
MPR (DPR + DPD) inaugurates President & VP
2009 elections cycle: parliamentary & presidential – 5 year fixed term
2014
Year of voting: A mammoth undertaking
171,068,667 registered voters East Java 29,294,127 West Papua 509,580
33 provinces 489 districts (kabupaten/kota) 77 electoral districts (daerah pemilihan) 600,000 voting stations 11,868 candidates in DPR Administered by the independent General
Elections Commission (KPU)
4 April – DPR (House of Representatives)
560 Members (increased from 550) Elected by proportional representation (PR)
Multi-member electoral districts (3 to 10 seats per district)
Parties win seats in proportion to their vote Electoral districts cannot cross provincial
boundaries Large provinces have a number of districts – eg W.
Java 11 districts with 6 to 10 seats (total = 91 seats) Medium-sized provinces have fewer districts – eg Sth
Sulawesi 3 districts with 7 to 9 seats (total = 24 seats) Small provinces have 1 district – eg Maluku 1 district
with 3 seats (total = 3 seats)
"Big Seven" Parties Percentage of parliamentary seats
0
5
10
15
20
25
Golkar PDIP Democrat PPP PKB PAN PKS Others
Changes to the electoral system will have huge political effects
New regulations have changed the way the campaign is being fought
Will alter the composition of the DPR Affect the way coalitions are formed for
presidential candidates Constitutional Court decisions on the electoral
law have changed the rules of the game
From “closed list” to “open list” PR
Gradual reform since 1999 election In 1999 “closed list” system meant voters could only vote
for a party. Parties listed their candidates in strict order – ie those at
the top would be elected. Widely criticised for allowing domination by parties
MPs ignored their constituency Many candidates bought their position on the party ticket
In 2004, voters could also vote for a candidate – but only if they also voted for the party (ie. invalid if they only chose a individual) In 2004, only one seat was won through individual vote Even though 52% of voters supported an individual
2009 electoral law moved further towards “open list” system Voters could vote for candidate or party Candidates who received 30%+ of a quota in
personal votes would be put into a count for the allocation of seats
eg. if a party won 3 seats and had 2 candidates with 30%+, those 2 candidates would take up seats and the 3rd allocated to the candidate on No.1 on party list
Greatly increased the chances of election on personal votes, but still weighting for party list
But…
Constitutional Court ruled the law to be unconstitutional
Declared party list weighting to contrary to the Constitution
Candidates with the largest number of votes should be allocated seats
This system will greatly increase the no. of voters who vote for an individual
But it still leaves open the question of what to do with “party only” votes
Govt seems to be leaving to question to the KPU
Const. Court ruling – the political effects
Campaign strategies completely changed - shifted from party focus to candidate focus
Previously dominated by national leaders, now by local candidates candidates have demanded their money back from the
party – position on party list no longer a valuable commodity
Candidates of same party competing against each other reporting each other to election oversight body on
alleged campaign violations Govt. shifting decision-making responsibility to
KPU has created uncertainty
Electoral District of North Somewhere – District no II
Red Party
Symbol
Blue Party
Symbol
Green Party
Symbol
Yellow Party
Symbol
White Party
Symbol
Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 1 Candidate 1
Candidate 2 Candidate 2 Candidate 2 Candidate 2 Candidate 2
Candidate 3 Candidate 3 Candidate 3 Candidate 3 Candidate 3
Candidate 4 Candidate 4 Candidate 4 Candidate 4 Candidate 4
Candidate 5 Candidate 5 Candidate 5 Candidate 5 Candidate 5
Candidate 6 Candidate 6 Candidate 6 Candidate 6
Candidate 7 Candidate 7 Candidate 7
Candidate 8
Other changes: Threshold for winning parliamentary seats
Only parties that win 2.5% of the total vote nationally are allocated seats
A party may win more than 2.5% in several electoral districts but not win seats because below national threshold
This regulation would remove all but one of the minor parties in the current DPR Crescent Star Party (PBB) won 2.6% in 2004
Affirmative action for women candidates
New electoral law says party lists must contain 30% female candidates
The sanction for non-compliance is weak But all parties have complied
1 in 3 candidates in a list should be female – ie not all women in “unwinnable” districts – “zipper”
“Zipper” rule was expected to increase chances for women candidates by placing them high on the party list
But Const. Court ruling has eliminated the effect
Presidential election system
Candidates must be nominated by a political party or coalition of parties
Party or coalition must receive 20% of DPR seats or 25% of votes to nominate a candidate
Only Golkar & PDIP are likely to receive this level of support
Small parties will have to join with one of the 2 big parties or form a larger coalition
This will limit the number of candidates In 2004 there were 6 candidates In 2009 there could only be 4 candidates
Party D
(eg Dem)
Party E
Party B
Party F
Party A
(eg. GolkarPDIP)
Party C
Party G
(eg PKS)
Party H
Party J
Party KParty L
Party M
Party NParty OParty P
Coalition building for presidential candidates
20%threshold
1 2 3 4
Presidential elections: factors in coalition-building
Big party in DPR with low-profile leader (eg Golkar) needs a ticket with high profile candidate (2004 Wiranto poor result) PDIP may be tempted to think it has both
High profile candidate with small party (eg SBY) needs a ticket with a big party to meet 20% threshold
One of the two candidates must have strong financial backing (eg Kalla for SBY)
Balance of nationalist-Islam (eg SBY-Kalla, Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto-Salahuddin Wahid)
Regional Representative Council (DPD)
Two legislative chambers, but not a bicameral system.
DPD has advisory powers only. Can draft bills on regional matters to submit to the
DPR Can submit its opinions to the DPR on bills and on
government policy on regional matters But does not pass reject or amend bills
DPD an unusual combination of strong legitimacy from direct election but weak powers
DPD – how it is elected
128 seats 4 seats per province, regardless of size
W. Java – population 36 m (9m/member) N Maluku – population 1m (250,000/member)
DPD Members must be “individuals” – ie independents, not party representatives
“single non-transferable vote” (SNTV) system Voters vote for one candidate from provincial list
DPD – how it is elected (cont.)
Province of North Somewhere
Candidate 1 Candidate 8 Candidate 15
Candidate 2 Candidate 9 Candidate 16
Candidate 3 Candidate 10 Candidate 17
Candidate 4 Candidate 11 Candidate 18
Candidate 5 Candidate 12 Candidate 19
Candidate 6 Candidate 13 Candidate 20
Candidate 7 Candidate 14 Candidate 21
Regional legislative elections (DPRD) Elections for provincial & district
legislatures also occur 9 April (ie. 4 votes) Elections for governors & district heads
(Pilkada) held separately (E. Java this month) Each province has assembly according to
population – 35 to 100 seats11m or more – 100 seats (E.W.C. Java) 9-11m – 85 seats (Banten)1m or less – 35 seats (W. Papua, N.Maluku)
Presidential election system cont..
Candidates must stand as a presidential-vice presidential joint ticket
Internationally, the pair will usually be from the same party, or close coalition
But all parties are small + threshold law So candidate pairing is the process by which
parties build coalitions But this cannot happen until after DPR election Result is speculation until close before election