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Vital Info! For Key Points No2: The Double sunspot cycle of World Temperatures Email Weather Action Circulation, Presentation and publication of this material is welcome. Please acknowledge Piers Corbyn of Weather Action. Thank you View in NOTES MODE to see letter re IPCC (slide 6) and discussions (Slide 12)

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Climate Change has ALWAYS BEEN. There are NO Climate Change Deniers Is there a war on? Quick Opinion Poll 1.Is Current Global Warming & Climate Change (if any) mainly caused by man? a) Yes / No & b) How sure of this are you? 95%, 70%?? 2.Can Science be decided by Opinion Polls? a) Yes/ No & b) How sure of this are you? 95%, 70%?? Global Warming Climate Change What is it all about?

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WEATHER 12 months ahead detail of 2 days, 85% accuracy Piers Corbyns Solar Weather Technique of Long Range Forecasting uses predictable aspects of solar particle and magnetic effects to find past weather (circulation) patterns which correspond to Sun-Earth-linked weather states in future. It does NOT project current weather patterns forward in time. The SWT correctly forecast in detail with timing to within 2 or so days, from many months ahead, over 90% of the major British Isles weather changes from Dec 05 to Jan 07, including: cold after Xmas 05, cold snowy late Feb, cold Spring, sudden switch to hot at start June, hot July, cool wet Aug, v warm Sept, v mild Oct, mostly mild Dec, and snow later Jan 07. THE SOLAR WEATHER TECHNIQUE of Long Range weather forecasting PRESSURE MAPS & CIRCULATION - Meteorology: the science which makes sense of weather SOLAR WEATHER TECHNIQUE - SWT the new science which makes sense of weather circulation patterns. - This understanding of key causes of weather and climate change were reached purely from a need to find out what actually is going on in order to make reliable LONG RANGE forecasts. The Solar Weather Technique which is based on solar particle influences and their modulations makes such forecasts. Traditional meteorology and theories based on CO2 have never made reliable Long range forecasts of weather or Climate. New!

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SWT Forecast: Notes on Britain 2007 & World Temps to 2013 (updated 1 Mar 07) These challenges come from Piers Corbyn and Weather Action using the Solar Weather Technique. Weather Actions significant forecast skill is independently proven. - See Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Vol 63 (2001) p29-34 by Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland; and by significant profits on 12 years of Weather bets placed with William Hill at odds advised by Met Office and shortened by William Hill for their normal expected returns 2007 will be a year of extremes and contrasts - between and within months. Such periods of extremes and contrasts happen around alternate solar activity minimums which come approx every 22 yrs (near the Odd cycle to Even cycle sunspot minimum) 2007 UK / England Temperatures will not be highest ever. We will bet anyone 1000 on this. 2007 World Temperatures will not be the highest ever (contrary to the expectations of some) We will bet anyone 1000 on this. Detailed weather forecasting by the SWT is possible 2 years ahead. The SWT holds that all major cyclic /quasi-cyclic events of Earths weather - such as El Nino and Stratospheric wind switching (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) every 28 months are of solar origin. New advance: SWT Climate outlook. In the 7yrs up to 2013 World average Temperature in any calendar year will not exceed the 1998 peak levels (95% confidence). The SWT could probably develop Climate forecasts decades ahead. New!

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What do you KNOW and what have you been TOLD ? Is Science above politics and interest groups?

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CO2 The Facts! CO2 - 0.03% of air - is a minor greenhouse gas. Water vapour is at least twice as important. Methane, Ozone & Nitrous oxide are also important Greenhouse gases. The total effect of all greenhouse gases is about 30degC. Man plays a minor part in CO2 changes. CO2 is being absorbed & expelled from the biosphere/sea all the time. Mans contribution to this flux is only 4%. CO2 is less than of the total greenhouse effect. The Kyoto protocols are about reducing the 4% flux of the CO2 fraction by a another fraction say 10%. 10% of 4% of is 0.1% - worth about 0.03 deg C. Even the top level most drastic (60%) reductions of man-made C02 (which would ruin the world economy) could only reduce world temperatures by 0.2 degC How many matches must you burn in a large room to give the EXTRA CO2 concentration equivalent to the input of ALL the cars in the world in one year into the whole atmosphere?

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There is NO EVIDENCE that CO2 influences world temperatures Time Temps & CO2 moved in opposite directions for half the last 30,000 yrs. From Bronze Age Climate optimum 4,000 yrs ago to 100 yrs ago temps fell while CO2 went up. Graphs Thanks to Willis Eschenbach

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Climate Change: Arctic temperature over 30,000 yrs Arctic (=> World) Temps deg C rel to present in the last 30,000yrs. Magnetic polar motion also marked. Time -20 (deg C below present) The last 750 years have been COLDEST part of the last 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age. From ACIA - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment project

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By Piers Corbyn Weather Action, London, 1 st Mar 07. piers@weatheraction.com 02079399946 / 07958713320 piers@weatheraction.com The latest (Feb 2007 ) IPCC Summary for Policy Makers graphs C02 changes from 10,000 years ago but does not plot temperature changes with them. Why not? Politicians have been asked to act to put this information in IPCC Summary for Policy Makers by the full IPCC in Bangkok 4 May See letter through NOTES Mode of this Presentation. From IPCC Summary For Policy Makers The Physical Science Basis Fig SPM1 Feb 07 Ice age 5C Range Two graphs which Policy Makers need to see are below Arctic temps over 10,000 yrs, since the end of the last ice age Blue band = range of estimates, dark blue line = mid line smoothed over centuries, short fluctuations not shown except recent as dark blue dotted. Deg C rel to present. From ACIA - Arctic Climate Impact Assessment project. Earths recent Climate History Houghton, J.T., et al (Eds.). 1990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. (Copy via Dr Don Keiller, Anglia Ruskin Univ)

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Close examination (eg see red boxes) of proxy Temp & CO2 data in ice cores show Temperatures lead CO2 changes. Changes across Antarctica termination III (Caillon et al Science March 2003) 240k yr ago show Temperature leads CO2 by on average 800+/-200yrs Time Note Rapid spikes in CO2 levels are diffused away in ice cores and not visible in data Depth (m) CO2 & temperatures moved close together through the last 4 ice ages. Temperatures LEAD CO2 by 800 yrs. Al Gore doesnt tell you That Inconvenient Truth!

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WHAT IS GOING ON? The theory of Global warming holds that Mans CO2 causes Global Warming and this causes other Climate Change and extremes. CO2 Global Warming Climate Change We have heard a lot about weather extremes and Climate Change in the last few years Since 1998 CO2 has gone up but World Temperatures have gone down. ALL last 8 years have been colder than 1998. So we have a claimed effect without a temperature rise to cause it !!! What does this mean? Is CO2 having a direct effect? Are more extremes/climate change happening naturally? Are they an illusion of reportage and selection?

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Arctic and Storms - False Alarms THE ARCTIC It has happened before. The idea that polar bears and other species could be wiped out by the rising temperature claims is invalid. The Arctic was much warmer than now from 10,000 years ago to 1,000 years ago - which is why Greenland was so named because it was warmer when discovered by the Vikings. Polar bears, walruses and all species supposedly now threatened, survived it then so they will now. TROPICAL STORMS - Less not More! There have been significantly less tropical storms and less damaging landfalling storms hitting the US per decade in the last 4 decades than the average rate over the first 6 decades of the century (figures show the landfall rate was 30% down from 1961 to 2000 compared with the rate from 1900 to 1960 and talk of more dangerous storms caused by man is also baseless see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml STORMS in UK & EUROPE? Nothing New Major storms and flood periods are forecasted by Weather Action using predictable aspects of solar particle & magnetic effects. The Largest English / European storm in last 300 years was the tempest of 1703 and it was colder then! Every Weather event is now fuel for Climate Change alarmism & taxes & surcharges.

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On NOAAA site above at top of graph, also online at http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Greenland_GISP2.htm The peak of warmth here at 965 years before present corresponds to 1040 AD, when it was more than 1deg C warmer than present. For a longer look at Arctic temperatures see later. The last 700 years have been the coldest period of such length in the last 8 millennia. The world is now naturally recovering probably only temporarily - from this relatively cold spell. Note it had been argued that the Greenland warming up to around 1100 AD was an Atlantic-centred phenomena only. This has since been denied by hundreds of studies - it was certainly Northern Hemisphere and quite probably world-wide. Further information: Timo Hmeranta [timo.hameranta@pp.inet.fi] It has happened before! From 945AD to 1040AD Greenland temperatures rose by 0.7C about the same rate as the last 90 years

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Solar Activity drives Climate Oman stalagmite data 9.5kyr to 6k yr before present Growth layers of stalagmite in a Cave in Oman show: Close correlation between Particles from the Sun* & Temperature** {*C14 proxy from Cosmic Ray Flux which is reduced by Solar magnetic-particle activity. **O18 isotope is Climate proxy} Similar correlations exist over the last 500 Million years See Neff et al, Nature May 2001; Veizer, Geoscience Canada March 05

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Solar particle effects (Geomagnetic Activity - aa Index), Global Temperatures & CO2 Annual data World Temperatures and measures of charged particles from the Sun move roughly together. CO2 follows the same general trend only.

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The largest and highly significant signal in World Average Temperature records is the Solar- Magnetic, or Hale Double-sunspot cycle; which has averaged 21 to 22 years since 1868 Peaks on this plot mark the main periodicities present in the data Piers Corbyn, Weather Action

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World Temperatures & Solar Particles (Geomagnetic Activity), Over Single Solar Cycles aa View in NOTES MODE for explanation World Temperatures and solar particles move together much better when averaged over the (approx)11yr sunspot cycle, but there is an alternate cycle difference.

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World Temperatures & Solar particles (Geomagnetic Activity), Over Double Solar (Hale) Cycles. Shown Moscow July 04 aa World Temperatures and solar particles move together astoundingly well when averaged over the Double sunspot cycle.

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Possible Example Temps - bridging our TG (Temp- Geomag) Gap - based on Geomagnetic Activity with extra allowances for reported reduction in sky pollution and/or enhanced particle entrapment due to induced magnetic fields arising from increased magnetic N pole Nward speed in last 20 or so yrs. TG Gap View in NOTES MODE for fuller explanation All scaled for best fit in 1896-1994. North Magnetic pole speed also shown (brown). All averages over double solar (Hale) cycle +42 months delay. We can explain recent & past observed Temperature changes by particles from the Sun & magnetic effects. We cannot explain them by CO2 from Man or nature Graphs Judy Humphrey & Piers Corbyn 2005 Note Colour change! Piers Corbyn, Weather Action (Over Hale cycles) Particles generally match temperature very closely without any inclusion of smoke/dust effects. They only need any increase in effect through reduced dust over the last Hale cycle and there the dust factor is half that used in GW theory over 3 times as long to make CO2 with dust match temperatures less well. (See also in Notes Mode)

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The IPCC says Mans CO 2 + dust drives Global Warming (From http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-4.htm) Figure 4: Simulating the Earths temperature variations, and comparing the results to measured changes, can provide insight into the underlying causes of the major changes. A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur both from natural and anthropogenic causes. The simulations represented by the band in (a) were done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those encompassed by the band in (b) were done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulphate aerosols, and those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with both natural and anthropogenic forcings included. From (b), it can be seen that inclusion of anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed temperature changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in (c) when both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. These results show that the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed. The bands of model results presented here are for four runs from the same model. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained with other models with anthropogenic forcing.http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-4.htm The IPCC tries to match world temperatures to a combination of various natural factors (notably volcanoes & dust) and mans CO 2 the vital factor they say. Important When the IPCC include solar variations they do NOT mean changes in particle and magnetic effect, they only mean light which changes by only 0.1%. The relative change in solar particle and magnetic effect in one solar cycle is 50,000 times larger. Notice this uses a boost of global undimming (ie reductions in dust/ aerosols) towards the end of the period to get a better fit.

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TG Gap World Temperatures follow what? Solar particle & magnetic modulation activity - OR - CO 2 (nature & Man) + CH 4 + N 2 O + O 3 + volcanoes + soot/aerosols + sunlight + .. REALLY?

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So What Stops CO2 Greenhouse effect? - further to Piers Corbyn International Climate Seminar Stockholm Sept 2006 10% or more of total evapo- transpiration cooling is transpiration from land plants. 11% of 78W/m2 = 8.6 W/m2 Extra plant transpiration-Cooling negates all extra CO2 warming New! Doubling CO2 increases CO2 Greenhouse heating of Earths surface by 3.8 W/m2. It also increases plant growth & therefore transpiration cooling by 43 to 45%. 44% of 8.6 = 3.8 W/m2 3.8 3.8 = 0 So CO2 has no net effect on world temperatures

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Key Summary: Solar activity is in Charge & CO2 greenhouse effect is negated by plant feedback processes The idea that Carbon Dioxide, from Man or nature, is the cause of global warming is disproved by the facts. Science has advanced beyond that theory. 1. If Carbon Dioxide (CO2) drives world temperatures then past data would show it. But it does not. Data going back decades, centuries and thousands of years shows that CO2 is not in charge. The graphs make it clear! The supporters of the theory of CO2 enhanced Greenhouse effect driven global warming must answer this fact or their theory must be abandoned. 2. World temperatures & particles from the Sun move together very closely - over recent decades, past centuries, thousands and millions of years. This proves the Sun, not CO2, is in charge. Does the Sun cause the weather or does the weather cause the Sun to change? Various theoretical graphs have been drawn and presented to the public, using many assumptions, which combine CO2 (heating effect) with careful amounts of cooling effects involving smoke and dust from volcanoes cars and industry etc to construct a curve which more-or-less moves with world temperatures. If those theoretical graphs show that a special mix of CO2 and smoke drives the weather you also must explain HOW is it that the Sun sends out particles to follow Earth Temperature!. 3. CO2 is a greenhouse gas so why doesnt more of it make it warmer? The answer is transpiration-cooling by plants. Science has moved past the GW one-way-effect--CO2-theory. The (close) equality of enhanced greenhouse heating & plant transpiration cooling is not coincidence. If there are not enough plants to do this cooling then the world gets warmer. But photosynthesis then increases and plants grow more when it is warmer (tropical forests are the best) and so the amount of plants increases, and their cooling effect increases - so temperatures cannot go up any more. Put simply: - Plants increase their photosynthesis activity and its cooling effect until that equals extra CO2 greenhouse heating. Thanks to all in CLIMATE SCEPTICS International E Group for inspiration which made this Presentation possible, Piers Corbyn, Weather Action The long range forecasters

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The decisive influence of Solar activity on Greenhouse gases, Weather, and Climate

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SOLAR ACTIVITY RAPID PARTICLES UV Modulation Factors: {HSL & ENSO plots} SLOW Solar (Hale) Cycle, Stratospheric Winds (SQBO), ENSO and Lunar Effects Circulation Patterns & Weather Types SUN - EARTH LINKS MODULATION FACTORS: SWT FORECASTING

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Extreme weather especially Storm loss Events 1998 2006 forecast by Solar Weather Technique Autumn/Winter 98-99: Two large storms in the British Isles (Beaufort force 10+). 24 - 26 Oct catastrophic destruction across Wales, SouthWest & Mids. Fc 6 m ahead. Famous Christmas Day/Boxing Day storm 24 -26 Dec 98. N Ireland & Scotland caused 150M damage. Fc issued 6 m ahead. Christmas 1999 Europes storm of the century Fc issued 9 months ahead 20-22 Feb 02 Late winter blizzard in N England - Forecast confirmed to the day. Torrential Rain & Floods in Britain and Europe in August 2002 Fc Confirmed Storms Mid Jan 03 90mph winds Scotland. Confirmed Fc 7m ahead for N/NW BI Blizzards 26-29 Jan 2003 espec East England. Ice & snow on M11 etc Confirmed. Carlisle floods 9 th Jan 2005 preceded by Rain /thunder 7 th / 8 th 11m ahead fc: A notable severe storm or series of storms probably the worst of the winter - is expected around Jan 5 th . 6m, 45d & 30d ahead similar: 4 th -6 th espec North/West & (30d) 5 th -7 th for 'top level' extra frontal activity. Birmingham Tornado 12 th Oct 05 High Tornado Risk fc confirmed: 10 th -13 th Highest tornado risk of month (England) ALL Major features of Winter 2005-6 correctly identified Near Normal temps & dry winter, cold and snow after Xmas and end Feb. ALL Major features of Spring and Summer 06 and Autumn detail correctly identified: Cold Spring, hot June and July, dramatic change to cold wet August, dramatic change to Indian summer September and very mild October.

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INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF SWT FORECASTS (1) Weather Action long range forecasts reveal a remarkable capacity to predict periods when major storm, flood and freezing insurance claims are likely to occur. The forecasting system shows skill in predicting the severest, and most expensive, of gale events. All five major storms for the two year period were successfully predicted. The majority of major insurance claim episodes (around 55 per cent) for storm, flood and freezing damage during the survey period were predicted by Weather Action. From Denis Wheeler (University of Sunderland) Independent Report produced for consortium of Insurance Companies - main findings published in Journal of Atmospheric & Solar-Terrestrial Physics 63 (2001) p 29-34

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CONFIDENTIAL Long Range Forecast British Isles WINTER 2005/6 Pre-Season Temperatures UPDATE WINTER 2005/6 Update Issued 20 Nov 05 using SWT 20b First Forecast for Winter months 05/06 were issued in May 05 using SWT19 (fullLb2) Overall Close to normal Temperatures in England and Wales with some cold and snowy spells. Second half Feb cold. NorthWest British Isles milder than other parts relative to normal WINTER 2005-2006 will have overall close to or slightly below normal temperatures in most parts with Dec and Jan being closest to normal and Feb below normal due to a notably cold second half. All three months will show some sharp variations through the month. Generally the West and North will be milder relative to local norms than the East. This is similar to the forecasts issued in May 2005 except Feb is colder. Some of the time windows quoted in the May issue have also been changed. Full details available soon. Temperature variations through Winter 2005/6 Period Av Temp (excl Ire NW Wales & far SW Eng) rel to norm degC Comment Month overall Dec 1-13 + 2.8Mobile flow Dec 14-31- 2.4 Nly flow & High press blocking at times. Blizzards in Scot later DEC - 0.2 Jan 1-19- 0.7Variable, some Nly & some SEly flow Jan 20-31+1.8Often mobile / SWly JAN + 0.3 Feb 1-12 + 2.9Often Sly / SWly Feb 13-28- 3.8Often Ely / SEly FEB - 0.9 OVERALL WINTER (Dec, Jan, Feb) - 0.2

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Detailed SWT21 30d Update Long Range forecast {First forecast (SWT20c) issued 5m ahead in April 06} No change from 45d ahead forecast except for more detail. Similar to 5m ahead except High pressure blocking is stronger at times and so forecast finer. SEPTEMBER 2006 (After first few days) Exceptionally dry, warm & sunny - an Indian Summer September - especially in South and Midlands. Mist and ground frost at times. Ireland and West Scotland closer to normal than England & Wales. This September is likely to be or close to - the driest warmest and sunniest September for 100 years. The sunny days and high temperatures are caused by a particular predictable Sun-Earth particle activity state and nothing to do with man-made CO2. General weather developments SEPTEMBER 2006 After the first few days the month will be often dominated by High Pressure which brings fine and dry Indian summer periods and blocks frontal activity (including deep Lows) back in the Atlantic for prolonged spells. After the first few days frontal incursions into the High pressure are manly confined to Ireland and West/ NorthWest Scotland. Overalls: Rainfall: Unusually dry espec Midlands, South & SouthEast (10% to 40%), closer to norm in Ireland & W Scotland (70% to 90%). Temperatures: Well above normal especially in South & SouthEast (+1.5 to +2.5C), closer to normal in Ireland & West Scotland (+0.5 to +1.5C) Sunshine: Well above normal especially in South (150%), closer to normal in Ireland & West Scotland (110%). Confidence: General scenario confidence of this month, A. Confidence order of main parameters: RST, ie SWT is more confident of Rain & Sun than Temps. Weather Action & Piers Corbyn accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising from use of forecast information. The application of forecast information is entirely at the users own risk. Weather Action TM & Piers Corbyn. No part of this forecast may be copied, re-circulated or used in production of any forecasts without agreement of Weather Action & Piers Corbyn. Weather Action, Delta House, 175-177 Borough High St, SE1 1HR. Tel 020 7939 9946 Fax 020 7939 9948 E: info@weatheraction.cominfo@weatheraction.com This is (most of) page 1 of full September forecast Full forecast is 5 pages and includes graphs and maps Weather Action 30day ahead SWT21 British Isles Forecast For Summary, Overalls and detailed weather periods. SWT20c(d) UPGRADE. Graph & maps Inc. - Including Solar based likely corrections to apply to Traditional Meteorology Forecasts. Weather Action forecasts are the only long range forecasts with independently tested & published proven skill. For Longer Range & Forecasts for other Countries: info@weatheraction.com 020 7939 9946 / 07958 713320info@weatheraction.com Short range Forecasts available from WeatherNet personal premium rate service 09061100445 Confidential Detailed 30d ahead Forecast SEPTEMBER 2006 SWT21 UPDATE issue 31 st AUG 06 (Lb2). Same as 45d(5m) detail issued 16 AUG 06 exc some more detail. First Long Range Forecast SEPT 06 was issued APRIL 06 (5m ahead) under SWT20c(2Lb) Weather Action Tel/Fax (+44/0) 20 7939 9946/ 48

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1.Is Current Global Warming & Climate Change (if any) mainly caused by man? a) Yes / No & b) How sure of this are you? 95%, 70%?? 2.Can Science be decided by Opinion Polls? a) Yes/ No & b) How sure of this are you? 95%, 70%?? 3. Rather than Climate & Weather worries and hysteria wouldnt it be better to have actual Long range forecasts of extreme events? 4. If you had them would you use them? Free Samples - Visit www.weatheraction.com Now What Do You think?