7
Review Article Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis Michael Kossmeier, Ulrich S. Tran, and Martin Voracek Department of Basic Psychological Research and Research Methods, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria Abstract: The funnel plot is widely used in meta-analyses to assess potential publication bias. However, experimental evidence suggests that informal, mere visual, inspection of funnel plots is frequently prone to incorrect conclusions, and formal statistical tests (Egger regression and others) entirely focus on funnel plot asymmetry. We suggest using the visual inference framework with funnel plots routinely, including for didactic purposes. In this framework, the type I error is controlled by design, while the explorative, holistic, and open nature of visual graph inspection is preserved. Specifically, the funnel plot of the actually observed data is presented simultaneously, in a lineup, with null funnel plots showing data simulated under the null hypothesis. Only when the real data funnel plot is identifiable from all the funnel plots presented, funnel plot-based conclusions might be warranted. Software to implement visual funnel plot inference is provided via a tailored R function. Keywords: funnel plot, meta-analysis, publication bias, small-study effects, visual inference The funnel plot is a widely used diagnostic plot in meta- analysis to assess small-study effects and publication bias in particular (Light & Pillemer, 1984). It was one of the first genuine plots proposed to visualize meta-analytic data and, next to the forest plot (Lewis & Clarke, 2001), is the most iconic and popular display for this purpose (Schild & Voracek, 2013). In essence, the funnel plot is a scatter plot of study effects on the abscissa and a study precision measure (preponder- antly, the study standard error) on the ordinate (Sterne & Egger, 2001). Its main idea is that observed effects should scatter randomly and symmetrically around the meta- analytic summary effect. As smaller studies are displayed toward the bottom and higher effect size variability is expected for these, this gives rise to the characteristic shape of an inverted funnel for this graphical display. Certain deviations from this expected funnel plot shape are commonly taken as suggestive for publication bias, although they similarly emerge via true effect heterogeneity or chance alone. In particular, a frequent observation is that smaller studies on average report larger effects. This so-called small-study effect, in turn, leads to asymmetric funnel plots (see Figure 1). However, despite the popularity of the funnel plot, its suitability to detect publication bias has been questioned (Lau, Ioannidis, Terrin, Schmid, & Olkin, 2006). Indeed, empirical research suggests that subjective interpretations of whether publication bias is present or absent, based on mere visual funnel plot inspection, often times are wrong (Hunter et al., 2014; Simmonds, 2015; Tang & Liu, 2000; Terrin, Schmid, & Lau, 2005). Formal statistical tests (e.g., Egger regression test, and others) based on funnel plot asymmetry are widely used to establish objectivity, while controlling for type I errors. All these tests have in common that they are based on fun- nel plot asymmetry quantified via the association of study effects with study standard errors (or respective functions of these). On the other hand, visual inspection of funnel plots allows incorporating a multitude of visually displayed statistical information in an exploratory fashion, in order to assess the presence and severity of publication bias. Impor- tant questions that can be addressed by visual funnel plot examinations include the following: Which role does statis- tical significance play (as indicated by significance-contour funnel plots)? Is there an abundance of just-significant stud- ies? Is asymmetry driven by single-study outliers or clusters of studies? As prominently outlined in the Cochrane Collaboration handbook for systematic reviews, formal tests for funnel plot asymmetry should never be interpreted in isolation, but rather always, and first of all, in the light of a visual inspection of the funnel plot (Sterne, Egger, & Moher, 2008, p. 317). Hence, visual inference might be the sought-after bridge between both worlds: it allows research- ers to formally safeguard against type I errors, while still being in keeping with the more general diagnostic, open, and explorative nature of visual examination of statistical graphs. Ó 2019 Hogrefe Publishing Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 8389 https://doi.org/10.1027/2151-2604/a000358 https://econtent.hogrefe.com/doi/pdf/10.1027/2151-2604/a000358 - Thursday, May 28, 2020 10:19:31 AM - Universidade de Sao Paulo IP Address:143.107.196.25

Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    3

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Review Article

Visual Inference for the FunnelPlot in Meta-AnalysisMichael Kossmeier, Ulrich S. Tran, and Martin Voracek

Department of Basic Psychological Research and Research Methods, Faculty of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria

Abstract: The funnel plot is widely used in meta-analyses to assess potential publication bias. However, experimental evidence suggests thatinformal, mere visual, inspection of funnel plots is frequently prone to incorrect conclusions, and formal statistical tests (Egger regression andothers) entirely focus on funnel plot asymmetry. We suggest using the visual inference framework with funnel plots routinely, including fordidactic purposes. In this framework, the type I error is controlled by design, while the explorative, holistic, and open nature of visual graphinspection is preserved. Specifically, the funnel plot of the actually observed data is presented simultaneously, in a lineup, with null funnelplots showing data simulated under the null hypothesis. Only when the real data funnel plot is identifiable from all the funnel plots presented,funnel plot-based conclusions might be warranted. Software to implement visual funnel plot inference is provided via a tailored R function.

Keywords: funnel plot, meta-analysis, publication bias, small-study effects, visual inference

The funnel plot is a widely used diagnostic plot in meta-analysis to assess small-study effects and publication biasin particular (Light & Pillemer, 1984). It was one of the firstgenuine plots proposed to visualize meta-analytic data and,next to the forest plot (Lewis & Clarke, 2001), is the mosticonic and popular display for this purpose (Schild &Voracek, 2013).

In essence, the funnel plot is a scatter plot of study effectson the abscissa and a study precision measure (preponder-antly, the study standard error) on the ordinate (Sterne &Egger, 2001). Its main idea is that observed effects shouldscatter randomly and symmetrically around the meta-analytic summary effect. As smaller studies are displayedtoward the bottom and higher effect size variability isexpected for these, this gives rise to the characteristic shapeof an inverted funnel for this graphical display.

Certain deviations from this expected funnel plot shapeare commonly taken as suggestive for publication bias,although they similarly emerge via true effect heterogeneityor chance alone. In particular, a frequent observation is thatsmaller studies on average report larger effects. Thisso-called small-study effect, in turn, leads to asymmetricfunnel plots (see Figure 1).

However, despite the popularity of the funnel plot, itssuitability to detect publication bias has been questioned(Lau, Ioannidis, Terrin, Schmid, & Olkin, 2006). Indeed,empirical research suggests that subjective interpretationsof whether publication bias is present or absent, based onmere visual funnel plot inspection, often times are wrong

(Hunter et al., 2014; Simmonds, 2015; Tang & Liu, 2000;Terrin, Schmid, & Lau, 2005).

Formal statistical tests (e.g., Egger regression test, andothers) based on funnel plot asymmetry are widely usedto establish objectivity, while controlling for type I errors.All these tests have in common that they are based on fun-nel plot asymmetry quantified via the association of studyeffects with study standard errors (or respective functionsof these). On the other hand, visual inspection of funnelplots allows incorporating a multitude of visually displayedstatistical information in an exploratory fashion, in order toassess the presence and severity of publication bias. Impor-tant questions that can be addressed by visual funnel plotexaminations include the following: Which role does statis-tical significance play (as indicated by significance-contourfunnel plots)? Is there an abundance of just-significant stud-ies? Is asymmetry driven by single-study outliers or clustersof studies?

As prominently outlined in the Cochrane Collaborationhandbook for systematic reviews, formal tests for funnelplot asymmetry should never be interpreted in isolation,but rather always, and first of all, in the light of a visualinspection of the funnel plot (Sterne, Egger, & Moher,2008, p. 317). Hence, visual inference might be thesought-after bridge between both worlds: it allows research-ers to formally safeguard against type I errors, while stillbeing in keeping with the more general diagnostic, open,and explorative nature of visual examination of statisticalgraphs.

�2019 Hogrefe Publishing Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89https://doi.org/10.1027/2151-2604/a000358

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5

Visual Inference for StatisticalGraphs

Visual inference is a formal inferential framework (Bujaet al., 2009) which allows researchers to test whether graph-ically displayed data support a hypothesis or not. The princi-pal idea is that if a suitable statistical plot of actuallyobserved data indeed is visually distinguishable from corre-sponding plots of data simulated under the null hypothesis,then this constitutes evidence against the null hypothesis.

In this framework, valid inferences are drawn via theso-called lineup protocol. That is, a lineup of diagnosticplots is constructed for the actually observed data and thenull hypothesis a researcher wants to reject. The totallineup comprises k plots, of which k � 1 plots show datasimulated under the null hypothesis, and wherein the singleplot with the actually observed data is positioned randomly.This lineup then is inspected by a viewer unfamiliar withthe actually observed data and their peculiarities with theaim to identify the real-data plot. In practice, the primaryresearcher and the viewer of the lineup often times willbe the same person, which is valid as long as the primaryresearcher is unfamiliar with the shape of the real-data plot.After the viewer has selected one of the plots in the lineup,the position of the true-data plot in the lineup is revealed. Ifthe real-data plot, showing the actually observed data,indeed visually was noticeably different and therefore iden-tifiable by the viewer from all the other plots in the lineup,then the null hypothesis is rejected.

If the actually observed data in fact are realizations of thenull hypothesis, the probability to identify the real-data plotand therefore to falsely reject the null hypothesis is 1/k.Hence, the alpha level is controlled by design (i.e., the size

of the lineup). A natural choice for the number of plots in alineup therefore is 20, corresponding to the conventionalalpha level (5%). Just as with conventional statistical tests,a test statistic (the actual plot) is compared to the nulldistribution (the plots showing data simulated under thenull hypothesis). At the same time, visual inference differsfrom conventional inference, in that the test statistic isnot compared to the entire null distribution, but rather toa finite number of realizations thereof (Majumder,Hofmann, & Cook, 2013).

Evaluations made by several independent viewers of alineup, instead of by a single viewer, can be used for visualinference as well. This extension of the basic procedure hasthe potential to increase the power to correctly reject thenull hypothesis. For either two, three, four, five, six, orseven viewers of the same lineup of 20 plots, it is sufficientthat at least two viewers are able to identify the real-dataplot to reject the null hypothesis with the alpha level ofthe procedure not exceeding 5% (for further details, seeMajumder et al., 2013).

In recent studies visual inference has shown promiseunder scenarios of different statistical plots and datacontexts (Chowdhury et al., 2015; Loy, Follett, & Hofmann,2016; Loy, Hofmann, & Cook, 2017; Majumder et al., 2013).

Visual Inference for theMeta-Analytic Funnel Plot

We suggest evaluating meta-analytic funnel plots via visualinference for two main reasons. First, by controlling for typeI errors, visual inference has the potential to increase the(often low) validity of conclusions based on mere visual

Figure 1. Two examples of funnel plots including 95% confidence contours and significance contours at the .05 and .01 levels. Left: unsuspiciousfunnel plot with symmetrical scatter of studies around the summary effect (vertical black line). Right: funnel plot showing conspicuous small-study effects. Evidently, studies with larger standard errors on average observe larger effects, whereas studies with null or negative effects aremissing. Hence, the funnel plot is asymmetric. R code to reproduce the figure: https://osf.io/drws7/.

Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89 �2019 Hogrefe Publishing

84 M. Kossmeier et al., Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5

inspection of the funnel plot. The lineup protocol allowsresearchers to safeguard against prematurely interpretingfunnel plot patterns which might be perfectly plausible bychance. Second, formal statistical tests for funnel plot asym-metry exclusively focus on the association of study effectswith their standard errors, whereas visual inference pre-serves the explorative nature of diagnostic graph inspection.Using visual perception as a formal statistical test allows toflexibly incorporate a multitude of visual information toassess the plausibility of the observed data under the null.

Specifically, we propose using visual funnel plot inferenceas a pretest before drawing further conclusions from thevisual inspection of a funnel plot. Only if the actuallyobserved data displayed in a funnel plot visually are distin-guishable from random patterns, any further conclusionsbased on mere visual inspection of the real-data funnel plotmight be warranted.

The procedural details to conduct valid statisticalinference using funnel plots are outlined in Figure 2. Asan illustrative example, Figure 3 shows a lineup for visualinference using a published meta-analytic funnel plot(Shanks et al., 2015).

Null-Plot Simulation for VisualFunnel-Plot Inference

Essential for visual inference is the null distribution used tosimulate the data displayed in the null plots, as this directlycorresponds to the null hypothesis one seeks to reject. Formeta-analysis, natural choices are the fixed-effect model(FEM) and the random-effects model (REM).

The FEM assumes the observed effects yi can bemodeled as

yi ¼ μþ ui; with ui � N 0; σ2i

� �:

That is, the study effects yi are independent realizationsof normal distributions with the same shared expectedvalue μ, but with study-specific variances σ2

i , which aremainly due to different sample sizes. The FEM thereforeassumes that differences between study effects entirelyare due to sampling error.

The REM allows the modeling of additional (unsystem-atic) random variability between the study effects, whichexceeds the amount of variability expected under theFEM. The REM assumes that the observed effects yi canbe modeled as

yi ¼ μþ ui þ ei; with ui � N 0; σ2i

� �and

ei � N 0; τ2� �

:

In the REM, the variance of each effect is σ2i þ τ2, and

therefore increased by the constant τ2, as compared tothe FEM. Based on these models, two straightforward waysto construct null plots for visual funnel plot inference are asfollows.

Given n actually observed effects yi,obs, with estimatedstandard errors σ̂i, the estimated meta-analytic summaryeffect μ̂obs, and an optional estimate for the between-studyvariance τ̂2obs, the effects displayed in each null plot aresimulated using the following model:

yi; simul ¼ μ̂obs þ ui þ ei; with ui � N 0; σ̂2i

� �and

ei � N 0; τ̂2obs� �

:

That is, the effects in each null plot are randomly drawnfrom normal distributions with expected value equal to theactually observed meta-analytic summary effect μ̂obs andstudy-specific variances equal to the sum of the observedvariance σ̂2

i , and the estimated between-study varianceτ̂2obs from the actually observed data (REM). For the FEM,τ̂2obs is simply set to zero. The null dataset for one null plotis then given as the n simulated effects yi,simul and the

1. Data 2. Create lineup 3. Inspect lineup 4. Draw inference

ID d se1 1.32 0.482 1.01 0.473 1.13 0.254 0.69 0.325 0.78 0.30. . .. . .. . .

Which funnel plot stands out?Typical evaluations

Small-study effects discernible?Role of statistical significance?Abundance of just-significant study outcomes?Conspicuous outliers or clustering of studies?

Reject H0

Yes

Real-data funnel plot identified?

No

Retain H0

Figure 2. Visual inference testing procedure using the lineup protocol with funnel plots. Starting from the effect sizes and their standard errorsactually observed in the meta-analysis (step 1), a lineup is constructed, showing the real-data funnel plot randomly positioned among null funnelplots (step 2). A viewer visually inspects the funnel plots in the lineup and picks the one that seems most noticeably or eye-catching (step 3). If thepicked funnel plot indeed is the real-data funnel plot, the null hypothesis (H0) used for null plot simulation is rejected (step 4).

�2019 Hogrefe Publishing Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89

M. Kossmeier et al., Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis 85

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5

initially observed corresponding standard errors σ̂i. Toemphasize, effect sizes are randomly drawn from a null dis-tribution, with actually observed standard errors regardedas fixed.

Under both the FEM and REM scenarios, the nullhypothesis tested against in visual inference is that studyeffect sizes are independent realizations of normal distribu-tions with the same expected value, but different (nonran-dom) variances. In the context of meta-analysis, nullfunnel plots simulated that way are well-behaved, symmet-ric random noise.

Which of the two models above should be used for null-plot simulation? In most cases, the REM is a suitable defaultchoice. This allows researchers to exclude the alternativepossibility, namely, that the reason for rejecting the null

hypothesis via visual inference was solely due to an excessof unsystematic between-study variation in the real-dataplot. An exception to this rule would be when (parallelingthe Cochran Q procedure as the conventional meta-analytictest) the excess of between-study variability itself is a targetfor visual inference. In this case, the FEM should be usedfor null-plot simulation. Finally, alternative models to simu-late the data for the null funnel plots, including Bayesianmodels, may well be proposed and used.

Quite a number of variants of the classic meta-analyticfunnel plot have been proposed, which differ in the statisti-cal information conveyed and in their diagnostic purpose(Langan, Higgins, Gregory, & Sutton, 2012). These variantsinclude different choices for the ordinate, the displayof study subgroups, confidence contours, significance

Figure 3. Example of a funnel plot lineup using data from a published meta-analysis on romantic priming (Shanks et al., 2015). One funnel plotshows the actually observed data, whereas the data in the 19 other funnel plots have been simulated under the null hypothesis of a random-effects meta-analytic model. Shown are 95% confidence contours (black lines), the summary effect (vertical line), and significance contours (darkarea indicates the .05 and .01 levels). Only if the real-data funnel plot showing the actually observed data is distinguishable from the null plots andtherefore is identifiable, the null hypothesis can be rejected and any further conclusions based on mere visual inspection of the real-data funnelplot might be warranted. The randomly positioned real-data funnel plot is at position 12. R code to reproduce the lineup figure and to conductvisual inference: https://osf.io/6qyg4/.

Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89 �2019 Hogrefe Publishing

86 M. Kossmeier et al., Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5

contours, or the regression line from Egger’s test, and theDuval-Tweedie trim-and-fill method. The visual inferenceframework can be accommodated to include all thesevariants. As an example, Figure 4 shows a lineup for visualinference of a meta-analytic funnel plot, incorporating sub-groups, and using data from a published meta-analysis(Pietschnig, Voracek, & Formann, 2010).

Software for Visual Funnel-PlotInference

For meta-analytic practitioners, an important question ishow to conveniently conduct visual funnel-plot inference.Within the statistical computing environment R (R Core

Team, 2018), the package nullabor (Wickham, Chowdhury,& Cook, 2014) is available, which provides general-purposefunctions to conduct visual inference with arbitrary graphi-cal displays, including functionalities to reveal the positionof the real-data funnel plot in the lineup only after inspect-ing a lineup. Building on this, we have developed anddocumented the R function funnelinf within the R packagemetaviz (Kossmeier, Tran, & Voracek, 2018) for specificallyconducting visual funnel-plot inference. The funnelinf func-tion provides tailored features, which currently include:(1) options for null-plot simulation under both FEM andREM meta-analysis; (2) subgroup analysis; (3) graphicaloptions specific to the funnel plot (significance and confi-dence contours, and choice of the ordinate); and (4) addi-tional options to display various statistical information(Egger’s regression line, and imputed studies by, as well

Figure 4. Example of a funnel plot lineup incorporating subgroups of studies. One funnel plot shows the actually observed data from a publishedmeta-analysis on the Mozart effect (Pietschnig, Voracek, & Formann, 2010), whereas the other 19 funnel plots show data simulated under the nullhypothesis of a meta-analytic random-effects model. Study subgroups are depicted with different plotting symbols (white squares: studies fromone author group of interest; dark circles: studies from all other authors). Subgroup membership is randomly drawn without replacement from theactually observed data and randomly assigned for each study in each null plot. The randomly positioned real-data funnel plot is at position 9. Rcode to reproduce the lineup figure and to conduct visual inference: https://osf.io/mx9zy/.

�2019 Hogrefe Publishing Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89

M. Kossmeier et al., Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis 87

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5

as the adjusted summary effect from, the trim-and-fillmethod). For further details, example code, and exampledata we refer to the documentation of package metaviz(https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=metaviz).

Conclusions and Implications

We propose to present, contemplate, and evaluate thefunnel plot of the actually observed data simultaneouslywith null-hypothesis funnel plots. Only if the real-datafunnel plot is identifiable from null-plots, the null hypothe-sis is formally rejected and conclusions based on visualinspection of the real-data funnel plot might be warranted.We suggest using visual funnel-plot inference routinely, asit is a convenient way to increase the validity of conclusionsbased on funnel plots by saving investigators from inter-preting funnel-plot patterns which might be perfectly plau-sible by chance.

Empirical experiments are suited to examine the powerof the procedure to reject the null hypothesis in differentscenarios. Using datasets simulated under an alternativehypothesis of interest, the proportion of corresponding line-ups leading to correctly rejecting the null hypothesis can beused as a direct estimate of the power of the lineup proce-dure (Majumder et al., 2013). Ideally, for this purpose largernumbers of independent viewers would work throughfunnel plot lineups from different experimental conditions.

A difficulty in recruiting larger numbers of viewers is thelikely effect of formal education in meta-analysis andexpertise with funnel plots in particular. The magnitudeof this effect is unknown, but at least questions the use ofonline recruitment systems like Amazon’s MechanicalTurk, which has been regularly used in visual inferenceexperiments in the past (e.g., Loy et al., 2016; Majumderet al., 2013). Hence, either innovative ways have to befound to recruit viewers with already existing funnel plotexpertise or to train viewers unfamiliar with the funnel plotin an efficient way prior to the experiment.

Questions for future experimental research include:What is the power of the procedure in different scenarios,for instance, for varying levels of publication bias orbetween-study heterogeneity? How does the procedurecompare to conventional statistical tests for funnel plotasymmetry? Are there power differences to detect publica-tion bias when using different graphical variants of the fun-nel plot for visual inference, for instance, by additionallyshowing Egger’s regression line? Which role do viewercharacteristics and expertise with funnel plots play in suc-cessfully conducting visual inference with funnel plots?What is the power-wise benefit when basing the decisionto reject the null hypothesis on more than one viewer’sevaluation per lineup? As a promising topic for future

empirical inquiry, visual inference with funnel plots is yetat its beginning.

Visual funnel plot inference also holds potential to servedidactic purposes in meta-analysis and research synthesis,by allowing students and users to collect experience withthe manifold shapes and patterns appearing in funnel plotsjust by chance. For this specific purpose, plot lineupsentirely comprised of null plots, also known as theRorschach protocol of visual inference (Buja et al., 2009),might be used.

Software to conduct all these forms of visual inferencewith meta-analytic funnel plots is readily available in theform of a tailored function within R package metaviz(Kossmeier et al., 2018).

References

Buja, A., Cook, D., Hofmann, H., Lawrence, M., Lee, E. K., Swayne,D. F., & Wickham, H. (2009). Statistical inference for explora-tory data analysis and model diagnostics. Philosophical Trans-actions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical,Physical and Engineering Sciences, 367, 4361–4383. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2009.0120

Chowdhury, N. R., Cook, D., Hofmann, H., Majumder, M., Lee, E. K.,& Toth, A. L. (2015). Using visual statistical inference to betterunderstand random class separations in high dimension, lowsample size data. Computational Statistics, 30, 293–316.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0534-x

Hunter, J. P., Saratzis, A., Sutton, A. J., Boucher, R. H., Sayers,R. D., & Bown, M. J. (2014). In meta-analyses of proportionstudies, funnel plots were found to be an inaccurate method ofassessing publication bias. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 67,897–903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2014.03.003

Kossmeier, M., Tran, U. S., & Voracek, M. (2018). metaviz,. [Rsoftware package]. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=metaviz

Langan, D., Higgins, J. P., Gregory, W., & Sutton, A. J. (2012).Graphical augmentations to the funnel plot assess the impact ofadditional evidence on a meta-analysis. Journal of ClinicalEpidemiology, 65, 511–519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2011.10.009

Lau, J., Ioannidis, J. P., Terrin, N., Schmid, C. H., & Olkin, I. (2006).Evidence based medicine: The case of the misleading funnelplot. British Medical Journal, 333, 597. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.333.7568.597

Lewis, S., & Clarke, M. (2001). Forest plots: Trying to see the woodand the trees. British Medical Journal, 322, 1479–1480. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.322.7300.1479

Light, R. J., & Pillemer, D. B. (1984). Summing up: The science ofreviewing research. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Loy, A., Follett, L., & Hofmann, H. (2016). Variations of Q-Q plots:The power of our eyes!. American Statistician, 70, 202–214.https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2015.1077728

Loy, A., Hofmann, H., & Cook, D. (2017). Model choice anddiagnostics for linear mixed-effects models using statistics onstreet corners. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics,26, 478–492. https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2017.1330207

Majumder, M., Hofmann, H., & Cook, D. (2013). Validation of visualstatistical inference, applied to linear models. Journal of theAmerican Statistical Association, 108, 942–956. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2013.808157

Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89 �2019 Hogrefe Publishing

88 M. Kossmeier et al., Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5

Pietschnig, J., Voracek, M., & Formann, A. K. (2010). Mozarteffect–Shmozart effect: A meta-analysis. Intelligence, 38,314–323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2010.03.001

R Core Team. (2018). R: A language and environment for statisticalcomputing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for StatisticalComputing.

Schild, A. H., & Voracek, M. (2013). Less is less: A systematicreview of graph use in meta-analyses. Research SynthesisMethods, 4, 209–219. https://doi.org/10.1002/jrsm.1076

Shanks, D. R., Vadillo, M. A., Riedel, B., Clymo, A., Govind, S.,Hickin, N., . . . Puhlmann, L. M. C. (2015). Romance, risk, andreplication: Can consumer choices and risk-taking be primedby mating motives? Journal of Experimental Psychology: Gen-eral, 144, e142–e158. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000116

Simmonds, M. (2015). Quantifying the risk of error when inter-preting funnel plots. Systematic Reviews, 4, 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13643-015-0004-8

Sterne, J. A., & Egger, M. (2001). Funnel plots for detecting bias inmeta-analysis: Guidelines on choice of axis. Journal of ClinicalEpidemiology, 54, 1046–1055. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00377-8

Sterne, J. A., Egger, M., & Moher, D. (2008). Addressing reportingbias. In J. P. Higgins & S. Green (Eds.), Cochrane handbook forsystematic reviews of interventions (pp. 297–333). Chichester,England: Wiley.

Tang, J. L., & Liu, J. L. (2000). Misleading funnel plot for detectionof bias in meta-analysis. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 53,477–484. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-4356(99)00204-8

Terrin, N., Schmid, C. H., & Lau, J. (2005). In an empiricalevaluation of the funnel plot, researchers could not visuallyidentify publication bias. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 58,894–901. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2005.01.006

Wickham, H., Chowdhury, N. R., & Cook, D. (2014). nullabor,. [Rsoftware package]. Retrieved from https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=nullabor

HistoryReceived February 28, 2018Revision received September 27, 2018Accepted October 22, 2018Published online March 29, 2019

Michael KossmeierDepartment of Basic Psychological Research and Research MethodsFaculty of PsychologyUniversity of ViennaLiebiggasse 51010 [email protected]

�2019 Hogrefe Publishing Zeitschrift für Psychologie (2019), 227(1), 83–89

M. Kossmeier et al., Visual Inference for the Funnel Plot in Meta-Analysis 89

http

s://e

cont

ent.h

ogre

fe.c

om/d

oi/p

df/1

0.10

27/2

151-

2604

/a00

0358

- T

hurs

day,

May

28,

202

0 10

:19:

31 A

M -

Uni

vers

idad

e de

Sao

Pau

lo I

P A

ddre

ss:1

43.1

07.1

96.2

5