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Visions of Europe in the world
Workshop 2THE “CENTRE-PERIPHERY” VISION: towards a dissymmetrical Euro-Mediterranean pattern
WORLD EVIDENCES - The “North-South regions”.Share in the World population & GDP, 1952-1998
WORLD EVIDENCES - The “North-South regions”.Synthesis
WORLD EVIDENCES - Bilateral international trade flows (1996-2000, EU25 aggregated)
VISIONS - The vision of world division by the ESPON members (Survey)
VISIONS- Official development assistance to the neighbourhood and the EU share (members and Commission, ann. average 2001-04)
VISIONS - Destination of German Foreign Direct Investmentin the neighbourhood (stock, 2003)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
VISIONS – Share of the neighbourhood in FDI (out stocks)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
4 Dragons (HK, Sing., Korea, Taiw an)
China
other S-E Asia & Pacif ic
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Mexico
Caribbean & central America (Mexico excluded)
South America
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1992
2003 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1992
2003
France Idem, excluding intra UE15 FDI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
Germany Idem, excluding intra UE15 FDI
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Spain Idem, excluding intra UE15 FDI
USA Japan
REGIONAL EVIDENCES – The center-periphery delimitation varies in the time (e.g. GDP / inhab.)
REGIONAL EVIDENCES - Egypt tourism (origins of tourists to Egypt, ann. average 2001-2003)
REGIONAL EVIDENCES - Demographic and markets opportunity Population in 2030 Demographic development
1955-2045
Territorial assets of the North-South Vision
• 1- A deeper Euro mediterranean integration, despite being asymmetrical (2010 free trade zone)
• 2- Mediterranean European territories will boost their development
• 3- Europe improves catching up with Asian and American counterparts (although not on the high-tech base of the Lisbon strategy)
Shortcomings of the North-South Vision
• 1- The relocation of the environmental burden on the southern shore of the Mediterranean is not sustainable
• 2- No de-pollution of the Mediterranean• 3- No change in the migration mix: mainly low educated
migrants toward Mediterranean Europe• 4- Southern brain drain is not stopped• 5- North Africa as gatekeeper against sub-Saharan African
migrants
Expected impacts on EU territorial cohesion
Expected impacts on EU territorial cohesion
Global cities
Global gateway
National capitals or other major cities
Rural regions
Touristic regions
Old industrial regions
High tech regions