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Virginia’s Growing Mature& Diverse Population:Implications for the
Transportation Sector
Kevin F Byrnes, AICP [email protected]
Aging Demographer
Virginia Department for the Aging
Virginia’s Aging Program: 25 Planning & Service Areas
Short-term Trends: 2000 – 2003
1. Migration > Natural Increase
2. Uneven Sub-State Regional Growth
3. Increasing Racial & Ethnic
Diversity
Demographic Change:
P1 = P0 + Components of Change:
Natural Increase: (Births0-1 – Deaths0-1) + Net Migration: (In-Migrants0-1 – Out-Migrants0-1)
+ residual
Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for Virginia: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003
Geographic area
Total population
change*
National Residual
Natural increase Net migration
Total Births Deaths TotalNet
international migration
Net internal
migration
Virginia 307,847 2,352 137,243 321,528 184,285 168,252 90,536 77,716
Share of Change 100.0% 0.76% 44.58% 104.44% 59.86% 54.65% 29.41% 25.25%
Table 4: Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2003 (NST-EST2003-04)
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau; Release Date: December 18, 2003; Last Revised Date: May 11, 2004.
-2,5000
2,5005,0007,500
10,00012,50015,00017,50020,00022,50025,00027,50030,00032,50035,00037,50040,00042,50045,00047,50050,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17/18 19 20 21 22
Population Change, 2000 - 2003, by AAA-PSA
Total Pop Abs Change 60+ Pop Abs Change
Increasing Racial Diversity
-5,000
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17/18 19 20 21 22
Comparative Change, White & Non-White Population, 2000 - 2003, by AAA-PSA
All Whites Total Pop Abs Change All Non-Whites Total Pop Abs Change
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8A 8B 8C 8D 8E 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1617/1819 20 21 22
Change in Hispanic Population, 2000 - 2003, by AAA-PSA
All Hispanics and/or Latinos Total Pop Abs Change
All Hispanics and/or Latinos 60+ Pop Abs Change
Increasing Ethnic Diversity
Top 15 Non-English-Speaking Population Groupsin Virginia by Age Cohort, 2000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000
Spanish
Tagalog
French
Korean
German
Chinese
Vietnamese
Persian
Arabic
Hindi
Urdu
Italian
Russian
Greek
Japanese
60+ Early Boomers: Age 45-54 Late Boomers: Age 36-44
Changing Age Structure: The Baby-Boom Tidal Wave
• Boomers born between 1946 & 1964• Year 2000: Boomers = Persons aged 36-54• Year 2004: Boomers = Persons aged 40-58• Year 2006: Boomers = Persons aged 42-60• Year 2010: Boomers = Persons aged 46-64• Year 2016: Boomers = Persons aged 52-70• Year 2024: Boomers = Persons aged 60-78
Virginia’s Projected Population Growth,
2000 - 2030
The Growing Importance of Senior Cohort
K – 12 Population
Baby-Boomers
Seniors, Age 60+
Boomer : Senior Ratio
K -1 2 : Senior Ratio
1990 1,173,737 2,017,596 909,960 2.217 1.290
2000 1,378,355 2,078,317 1,065,642 1.950 1.293
2010 1,404,554 2,014,055 1,448,609 1.390 0.970
2020 1,502,020 1,788,379 1,894,833 0.944 0.793
2030 1,630,783 1,428,740 2,258,425 0.633 0.722
Demographic Trends, 2000 - 2025
Trends in Life Expectancy
0.05.0
10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.0
Tota
l
Mal
e
Fem
ale
Tota
l
Mal
e
Fem
ale
Tota
l
Mal
e
Fem
ale
All Races White Black
US Life Expectancy by Age, 2000
At Birth 1 Year 20 Years 40 Years 60 Years 80 Years 100 Years
Life Expectancy Change (in Years): by Age, Race, and Sex, United States
(1950 - 2000)
Age
All Races White Black
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
At Birth 8.93 8.83 8.74 8.58 8.59 8.07 11.17 9.39 12.50
1 7.41 7.07 7.36 7.05 6.89 6.83 9.25 7.34 10.83
10 6.96 6.65 6.92 6.62 6.52 6.44 8.60 6.64 10.23
20 6.80 6.38 6.77 6.49 6.28 6.34 8.31 6.27 9.83
30 6.59 6.22 6.52 6.38 6.11 6.10 7.61 5.79 8.98
40 6.29 5.91 6.14 6.11 5.93 5.86 6.72 5.01 7.98
50 5.70 5.31 5.60 5.60 5.37 5.44 5.52 3.95 6.43
60 4.66 4.22 3.78 4.65 4.24 4.76 3.63 2.39 4.25
70 3.58 2.89 3.33 3.61 2.93 4.02 1.82 0.76 2.21
80 2.36 1.66 2.58 2.33 1.62 2.61 0.88 0.23 0.95
90 1.26 0.80 1.75 1.19 0.73 1.29 1.03 0.62 1.07
100 0.78 0.48 0.89 0.48 0.28 0.58 1.06 0.87 1.06
What Lies Ahead? Projected US Life Expectancy Range:
Life ExpectancyAT BIRTH 1999 2025 2050 2100
Total Male 74.0 – 74.1 76.5 – 79.1 79.5 – 83.8 85.0 – 92.3
Total Female 79.7 – 79.8 82.6 – 84.6 84.9 – 88.4 89.3 – 95.2
White, NH Male 74.7 – 74.7 76.9 – 79.2 79.5 – 83.5 84.8 – 91.8
White, NH Female 80.1 – 80.1 82.6 – 84.5 84.8 – 88.0 89.0 – 94.6
Black, NH Male 68.3 – 68.5 72.4 – 75.3 76.6 – 81.3 83.9 – 91.4
Black, NH Female 75.1 – 75.2 79.3 – 81.7 82.7 – 86.5 88.4 – 94.5
Am Indian, NH Male 72.8 – 73.0 77.2 – 80.1 80.3 – 84.9 85.6 – 92.9
Am Indian, NH Female
82.0 – 82.1 85.3 – 87.7 87.3 – 91.0 90.6 – 96.5
Asian, NH Male 80.8 – 80.9 81.5 – 83.8 83.2 – 87.1 86.6 – 93.5
Asian, NH Female 86.5 – 86.6 86.8 – 88.7 88.1 – 91.2 90.7 – 96.2
Hispanic Males 77.1 – 77.2 79.0 – 81.5 81.4 – 85.5 85.8 – 92.9
Hispanic Females 83.7 – 83.8 85.1 – 87.1 86.8 – 90.0 90.1 – 95.6NH = “Non-Hispanic”
Source: National Projections Program, Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, Wash. DC 20233. Jan 13, 2000.
Expectancy Range (in Years): Low – High Projection Series
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
Persons
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Yea
rAging Trends in Virginia
Under 60 60 - 74 75 - 84 85+
Possible Impact of
Aging Trends on
Virginia’s
Transportation Sector
•In 2003, Virginia’s population age 60 & over represented 15.6% of the state total, compared to Florida’s 22.4% (1st in the Nation)
•Based on national projections, Virginia’s age 60+ population share (24.3%) in 2025 will be roughly comparable to Florida’s current age structure (persons age 60+ =22.4% of total in 2003).
Estimated & Projected Licensees, by AgeLicensees by
Age/Total Population
1999 Pct License
d
2010 2020 2030
Age 60 – 64 243,016255,057
95.3 % 413,976434,392
510,410535,582
482,960506,779
Age 65 – 69 198,323228,346
86.8 % 274,995316,815
377,753435,199
434,904501,042
Age 70 – 74 167,101199,615
83.7 % 193,811231,554
290,489347,060
362,831433,490
Age 75 – 79 126,465161,947
78.1 % 141,087180,649
191,350245,006
273,616350,340
Age 80 – 84 66,593100,961
65.9 % 92,091139,744
105,031159,380
160,847244,077
Age 85 + 30,65384,016
36.5 % 53,091145,454
63,002172,607
81,284222,697
Age 60 & over 832,1511,029,94
2
80.8 % 1,169,051
1,448,608
1,538,0351,894,834
1,796,442
2,258,425
“Driving Age” Household Population Forecast
Age Group
Estimated
2000 2010 2020 2030Total
Population 7,078,512 7,892,900 8,601,900 9,275,100Driving AgePopulation 4,806,082 5,359,025 5,840,413 6,297,490Under 65
Yrs 4,057,055 4,412,683 4,576,762 4,670,863
65 - 74 Yrs 425,265 540,736 770,702 920,192
75 - 84 yrs 255,857 298,524 373,484 552,279
85 yrs + 67,905 107,082 119,465 154,15665 Yrs &
over 749,027 946,342 1,263,651 1,626,627Pct Drivers,
Age 65+ 15.6 % 17.7 % 21.6 % 25.8 %
Mean Daily Trips & Miles Forecast:
Senior Drivers2000 2010 2020 2030Virginia
Drivers, 65 Yrs & over 749,027 946,342 1,263,651 1,626,627
Mean Number of Daily Trips*,
Persons Age 65+3.4 3.4
Estimated No of Daily Vehicle Trips
by Persons Age 65+
2,546,692 3,217,563 4,204,613 5,530,532
Est. No of Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled*,
Persons Age 65+17.0 17.0
Estimated No of Miles Traveled,
Persons Age 65+
12,733,459
16,087,814
21,482,067 27,652,659
* SOURCE: The 2001 National Household Travel Survey, person file, U.S. Department of Transportation. (Link)
Traffic Fatalities by State
Traffic Fatalities
Fatality RateDeaths per 100 million vehicle miles travelled
2002 1980 2002Virginia 914 2.7 1.2
Florida 3,132 3.6 1.8
Source: US Statistical Abstract: 2004-2005, Table No 1090, page 697
Estimated & Projected Traffic Fatalities: Senior Virginians
2000 2010 2020 2030Virginia Drivers, Age 65 - 74
425,265
540,736
770,702 920,192
Death Rate per 100,000 (USA rate)
17.31
Traffic Fatalities, 65-74
74 94 133 159
Virginia Drivers, Age 75 & over
323,762
405,606
492,949 706,435
Death Rate per 100,000 (USA rate)
26.47
Traffic Fatalities, 75 & over
86 107 130 187
Total Traffic Fatalities, 65+ 160 201 263 346
Vehicles/Household by Age of Householder, 2000
AGE GROUP Total
Population
Household Population
No Vehicle Available
Percent of Household Population w/o Vehicle
Estimated Mean
Vehicles per Person
TOTAL 7,080,588 6,848,776 394,839 5.7 % 2.098
60 & over 1,062,782 1,017,265 106,868 10.5 % 1.824
65 & over 788,814 745,810 91,657 12.3 % 1.730
70 & over 568,051 528,111 75,337 14.3 % 1.655
75 & over 362,668 327,000 58,086 17.8 % 1.564
80 & over 199,655 171,015 38,182 22.3 % 1.493
85 & over 90,783 71,998 19,933 27.7 % 1.456
Baby-Boomers =
36 – 54 yrs2,089,303 2,052,993 87,493 4.2 % 2.212
Work Status & Vehicle Availability for Older Virginians, 60 & over, 2000Virginians, Age 60 & over
NumberPercent of Total
Percent, by Employment Status,
Without Vehicle
Mean Vehicles
Per Person
Employed 221,741 21.8 % 4.2 % 2.028
Employed, Not at Work
5,127 .5 % 3.6 % 1.983
Armed Forces
11 .0 % 0.0 % 2.000
Unemployed 5,763 .6 % 8.3 % 1.831
Not in Labor Force
781,358 76.8 % 11.7 % 1.734
Sample Error 3,265 .3 % NA NA
Estimated Total
1,017,265 100.0 % 10.5 % 1.788
Source: 2000 Census, PUMS Data, 5% Sample of Persons.
Age Differences in Commuter Mode Choice, 2000
Commuter Mode Choice
Employed Workers (Percent of Total)
Under Age 60
Early Boomer (45-54)
Late Boomer(36 - 44)
Age 60 & over
Car, truck, or van 90.4 % 90.9 % 91.6 % 86.4 %
Bus or trolley bus 1.7 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.5 %
Streetcar or trolley car 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Subway or elevated 1.7 % 1.7 % 1.4 % 1.3 %
Railroad 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Ferryboat 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %
Taxicab 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Motorcycle 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %
Bicycle 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 %
Walked 2.1 % 1.4 % 1.4 % 2.2 %
Worked at home 2.8 % 3.4 % 2.9 % 7.5 %
Other method 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.7 % 0.8 %
TOTAL 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 % 100.0 %
Contact Information:
Kevin F Byrnes, AICPDemographerVirginia Department for the Aging1610 Forest Ave, Suite 100Richmond, VA 23229
(804) [email protected] http://www.vda.virginia.gov/downloadable.htm