Virginia Yield Trend

-8.5

+10.7

y = 1.2755x - 2445.3

R2 = 0.0765

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Gra

in Y

ield

, bu

/ac

USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008

Crop Value to Virginia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Cro

p V

alu

e, M

illi

on

$

USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008

Virginia Planted Acres

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Pla

nte

d A

cres

, 10

00's

USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008

December 2008 Corn

CBOT.com 3/12/08CBOT.com 3/12/08

Current Research Topics

Examples

• 3000 lb (DM) of Vetch as a cover crop can produce 80 lb N/ac.

• Cover crop needs to grow until early May to achieve this much DM.

• How much yield do I give up by planting at this later date?

Delayed Planting?

020406080

100120140160180200

Best yield 75%percentile

Median yield 25%percentile

Worst yield

10-May

20-Apr

Mod

eled

Gra

in Y

ield

, bu

/ac 14.2

4.6

The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values

The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values

The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values

The vigor of the leaves and the ratio of plant to soil affect NDVI values

What the Sensor “Sees”What the Sensor “Sees”

Note that the biomass of each plant is observable in NDVI valueNote that the biomass of each plant is observable in NDVI value

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

NDVI

N Application Model

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Pre

sc

rib

ed

N R

ate

, lb

/ac

NDVI

Compare grain yields followingsensor-based, variable-rate Napplications and standard in-season N recommendations for Virginia

Compare grain yields followingsensor-based, variable-rate Napplications and standard in-season N recommendations for Virginia

Large Scale Strip TrialsLarge Scale Strip Trials

The System

• Wheat – 16 Studies

• Corn– 11 Studies

LB N/AC BU/ACSTD 65.6 85.9GS 61.2 85

STD-GS -4.4 -0.8

LB N/AC BU/ACSTD 100 147.9GS 79.1 148.5

STD-GS -20.9 0.7

y = 0.0014x + 110.37

R2 = 0.6138

y = 0.0021x + 82.01

R2 = 0.8312

y = -0.0003x + 154.31

R2 = 0.4189y = 0.0009x + 120.08

R2 = 0.3072

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

25000 27000 29000 31000 33000 35000 37000 39000

Plants/ac

Yie

ld, b

u/a

c

15 Inch 20 Inch 30 Inch Twin 30 Inch

Price Paid to Farmers/Bu Corn

USDA, NASS, 2008USDA, NASS, 2008

Corn is king -- and therefore a growing problem

– Increasing dependence on the grain leaves the U.S. vulnerable to drought-induced price spikes in food and fuel.

•Jerry Hirsch, Los Angeles Times

March, 2008

Rick Tolman, NCGARick Tolman, NCGA

Rick Tolman, NCGARick Tolman, NCGA

• In January, China levied export tariffs of 5% for corn, rice and soybeans and 20% for wheat to keep grains from leaving the country.

• The Russian government has increased grain export tariffs by 40% - Jan 30, 2008

• Argentina and other nations also are placing tariffs on grain exports to protect their food supplies.

NCGANCGA

Corn Nutrient Efficiency

0.61

1.331.05

0.84

2.1

1.65

1.03

2.89

2.49

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium

Bu

shel

s o

f G

rain

/ lb

Fer

tiliz

er

1980

1990

2005

World Wheat Production

Versatile, with excellent milling and baking

characteristics for pan bread, HRW is also a

choice wheat for Asian noodles, hard rolls, flat breads, general purpose flour and as an improver

for blending.

The aristocrat of wheat when it comes to

"designer" wheat foods like hearth breads, rolls, croissants, bagels and

pizza crust, HRS is also a valued improver in flour

blends.

Versatile, with excellent milling and baking

characteristics for pan breads, general purpose flour and as an improver

for blending.

Hardest of all wheats, durum has a rich amber

color and high gluten content. I t sets the "gold standard" for premium

pasta products, couscous and some Mediterranean

breads.

The newest class of U.S. wheat, HW receives

enthusiastic reviews when used for Asian noodles,

whole wheat or high extraction applications,

pan breads and flat breads.

A low moisture wheat with high extraction rates,

providing a whiter product for exquisite cakes,

pastries, and Asian-style noodles, SW is also ideally suited to Middle Eastern

flatbreads.

US Winter Wheat Production

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Kansa

s

Texas

Was

hingt

on

Oklaho

ma

South

Dak

ota

Colora

do

Nebra

ska

Mon

tana

Virgini

a

Pro

du

ctio

n (

1000

bu

)

24th of 42 States

USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS

Virginia Wheat

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Wh

eat

Val

ue

(mil

lio

n $

)

USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS

Virginia Wheat Yield

y = 0.7751x - 1493.2

R2 = 0.6918

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Avg

. Yie

ld, b

u/a

c

USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS

USDA, NASSUSDA, NASS

$ !

World Wheat Stocks

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Sto

cks:

Use

Rat

io

ProductionDisappearance

Lowest since 1948

FAOFAO

Future directions for VA

• Increased Value Small Grain Crops– Bread Wheat– Durum Wheat– Other IP Wheat Opportunities

• Strong gluten• Super soft

– Hulless Barley

Survey

What price/bushel level would it take for you to re-introduce wheat on your farm or increase wheat acreage?

6% $3.50-3.75 

28% $3.76-4.00 

48% $4.01 +

17% Do not plan to grow wheat regardless of price

Wheat Prices, CBOT & KCBOT

$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00

01/0

2/19

96

01/0

2/19

97

01/0

2/19

98

01/0

2/19

99

01/0

2/20

00

01/0

2/20

01

01/0

2/20

02

01/0

2/20

03

01/0

2/20

04

01/0

2/20

05

01/0

2/20

06

AVG. of $0.40/bu or more

2006 – ~ 2.2 M bushels of SRW~ 5 M bushels HRW

2007 – ~ 10.5 M bushels/year~ 6 M bushels Durum

Durum and Soft Red Winter Wheat

Durum wheat is over $21 per bushel today!

Hulless Barley

• Higher Starch• Higher Protein• Lower Ash• Lower Fiber

Results: Hulless Versus Hulled Barley Fermentations (No -Glucanase

Added)

Value Hulled Doyce Hulless

Fermentation Sample 7.5 lbs 7.5 lbs

Starch (db) in Grain 50% 59%

%Protein (db) in Grain 10.0 12.8

% B-Glucan (db) in Grain 2.9 3.3

Ethanol Yield (% Theory) 103% + 5% 105% + 5%

Ethanol Conc. in Beer 74 g/l 86 g/l

Ethanol per lb Barley 116 g/lb 137 g/lb

Gallons/Bushel (Theoretical)

1.64 gal/bu (test wt. = 48 lb/bu)

2.27 gal/bu (test wt. = 56 lb/bu

Worldwide Wheat

• Grain Contamination– Pesticide Residue Thresholds– Insects – Disease

• End-use Quality

• GMO Wheat

GMO Wheat

• 2002-2003

• Roundup Ready - Hard Red Spring Wheat

• NAWG claims markets will be lost

• June 2004 – Monsanto withdraws application

• Segregation

GMO Wheat – Current & Future

• Roundup Ready– Monsanto– Approved in US but withdrawn due to industry

concerns• Fusarium Head Blight Resistance

– Syngenta– Field trials complete, not submitted for approval– Available 2013 ?

• Drought?• Grain Quality?• Nitrogen Efficiency?

W. Wilson, NDSU

Current Position

• Sherman Reese, former president of NAWG and an Oregon wheat commissioner

"My take is there is not a lot of concern about biotech wheat. The concern is that there is wheat at all," he said.

Questions?

• Is this a “knee-jerk” to current low supply?

• Will wheat production and quality improve with the additions of GM traits?

• How will our trading partners react?

• Does farmer-saved seed make this different from other markets?