Vikings & Mongols

Canada Woodlands Forum 2015 Moncton NB

• First Viking Age: 795-1066 Raiders and Traders

• The New Viking Age: Raiders

& Traders

• The Mongols of Wall Street

• Burdens of History

• Implications

Coin of Erik Skotkonung, Sweden 9th c.

3/24/2015 CWF 2015 Vikings and Mongols 2

• Predatory gangs out for plunder, ransom payments • Preyed on each other when they

could • “Mafia model” – confederations

to minimize vendettas and conflict: bad for business

• Godfathers set selves up as Kings


• Vinland sagas

– Larch from Canada found in Greenland Viking age sites

– “Karlsefni ordered timber to be felled and cut into lengths for a cargo for the ship, and it was left out on a rock to season. They made use of all the natural resources of the country….”


• Victims built forts, formed proto-nation states

• Economic growth improved profits of trade

• Their own kings imposed order

• Scandinavians settled in former victim’s lands…

• Norse homelands needed bulk goods requiring peaceful trade

• Christianity?

Bayeux Tapestry


• Scandinavian products in demand

• Silk Road imports

• Light manufacturing

• Internal trade

• Symbols of far-flung trade…



http://www.bitsofnews.com/images/graphics/viking_voyages_map_large.png



Miklagard –Byzantium Lanse au Meadows, Nfld


• Illegal loggers

• Corrupt governments

• Enablers through the supply chain

• Timber Mafias of Asia, Russia Far East, elsewhere

• May not wither away as First Viking Age did…

• Oversupply affects Our business

Sumatra



• IKEA – more than 300 stores

– 217 MM catalogs printed (100,000 t paper/yr)

– Leading sources: China, Poland, Italy

– North America???

• Many others, typically by internal growth


• $4 billion + sales; 576 stores

• “Multi-channel operating model”

• “Strong brands; proprietary design”

• “World class supply chain”

• 61% sourced in Asia, Europe

• 46% of revenue direct to customer; most e-commerce; e-commerce fastest growing revenue stream




Zillow says Our House is up 30%! Let’s buy another one!

Counterparty surveillance will take care of all the risks...

Don’t interfere with “innovation” and “free

markets”

• Radical Rebuild of the Distribution System; Fragmentation of markets

• Global Logistics Revolution – China

– Fed-X, UPS virtually overnite

– Wider Panama Canal

– The Post Panamax Ship

– North America Loses ability to compete on price

• Fast Growing Tropical plantations 3/24/2015 CWF 2015 Vikings and Mongols 17


HAVE TRIED –

• Consolidation

• Become their distributors

• Sell ‘em raw materials

• At primary end - do more “Value added”

• Move Production Offshore

• Supply Chain monitoring/cleanup


• Mongols of the stock market rode off to greener pastures

• Fortune 500 Companies were like the Medieval monarchs but they didn’t adapt -- – Sold off the lands

– Left the region entirely

• Replaced by: – Private equity

– Offshore Capital


• Family Ownership if not management

• Manage Debt

• Growth for its own sake? Why?

• Face the facts of Mature/Declining Markets

• No one silver bullet


• Northeast US/E. Canada -- Culture Hearths of lumber/Paper industries

• Former models of vertical integration obsolete

• Locations based on log driving & Waterpower

• Cost position prohibitive for volume grades

• Will biomass based energy save us? Not Likely.



• Historic outlets to the World

• Now, an advantage for our competitors

• Thoreau, 1846: “There stands the city of Bangor…at the head of navigation for vessels of the largest class…like a star at the edge of night...sending its vessels to Spain, to England, and to the West Indies for its groceries…”


• WE MUST --- • Make some BIG changes • Modern wood measurement

system • Face Risk: people who took no

risks are no longer with us! • Grow quality wood in our own

forests • Clean up supply chains • Culture of Continuous

reinvention/improvement



Thanks for your kind attention


[email protected]

• Else Roesdahl, The Vikings. Penguin 1998, pbk.

• Robert Ferguson, The Vikings, a History. New York: Viking. 2009.

• Henry Goddard Leach, A pageant of Old Scandinavia, Princeton Univ Press. 1946.

• B. Almgren, et al. The Viking. Crescent Books, no place of pub cited. Copyright 1975.

• James Graham-Campbell.et al. Cultural atlas of the Viking World. New York: Facts on File. 1994.

• Last 2 are lavishly illustrated. The sagas are available in many forms including paperback editions.

• See further reading in Wikipedia entry under Ghengis Khan.

• The Travels of Marco Polo – many editions.


Documents

Vikings & Mongols