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Future Maps of the World

Prophecies, about possible Earth Changes

AMERICA DE NORD SI CENTRALA

Canada[Gordon-Michael Scallion]Hudson Bay and the Foxe Basin will expand to form a large inland sea. Parts of the Northwest Territory will be pushed in as much as two hundred miles. Areas in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and portions of Alberta will become the survival center of Canada during the early changes. Migrations will arrive from British Columbia and Alaska.United StatesMajor global Earth changes will begin in the United States as the North American Plate buckles, creating the Isles of California — 150 islands in all. Eventually, through tectonic plate buckling and fractures followed by inundations, the West Coast will recede eastward to Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado.The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway will join and flow through the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico.Coastal areas from Maine to Florida will be inundated and pushed in for many miles.MexicoCoastal areas of Mexico will be inundated far inland. The California Baja will become a series of islands. Most of the Yucatan Peninsula will be lost to the sea. Volcanic and seismic activity will continue into the twenty-first century.Central America and the CaribbeanCentral America will be inundated and reduced to a series of islands. Elevations above 500 meters will be considered safe. A new waterway will form from the Bay of Honduras to Salinas, Ecuador. The Panama Canal will become impassable.

Europa

Europe will go through some of the quickest and most severe Earth changes. Much of Northern Europe will go beneath the sea as the tectonic plate upon which it rests collapses. Norway, Sweden,

Finland, and Denmark will be inundated, leaving hundreds of small islands.

Most of the United Kingdom, from Scotland to the Channel, will go beneath the sea. A few small islands, about the size of what is now Shetland Island, will remain. London and Birmingham will be

among the remaining islands. Ireland will go beneath the sea except for higher ground.Russia (the former Soviet Union) will be separated from Europe by a large new sea as the Caspian, Black, Kara, and Baltic Seas merge. The new sea, divided by the Ural Mountain range, will stretch all the way to the Jenisej River in Siberia. The region's climate will become more temperate, enabling Russia to supply

much of Europe's food. The Black Sea will merge with the North Sea as well, leaving Bulgaria and Romania under water.

The region from Poland to Turkey will see great turmoil. A great Holy War will be born in this region,

ending with the purification of the land by fire and water. Portions of western Turkey will go under water, creating a new coastline from Istanbul to Cyprus. Much of central Europe will be inundated; most

of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Baltic Sea will be lost. Many of the World War II battlegrounds will go beneath the sea, and small islands will be formed.

Much of France will go under water, leaving an island in the Paris region. A new waterway will separate

Switzerland from France, along a line from Geneva to Zurich. Italy will be divided by water. Venice, Naples, Rome and Genoa will be claimed by the sea, but the Vatican will be saved by moving to

higher ground. Higher elevations will remain as islands. New land will rise from Sicily to Sardinia.

Asia

The Ring of Fire that passes through Asia is a highly seismic area, and as a result will experience the most active and severe Earth changes in this region.

Land will be inundated from the Philippines to Japan, and north to the Bering Sea, including the Kuril and Sakhalin Islands. As the Pacific Plate shifts its position some nine degrees, the islands of

Japan will sink, leaving a few small islands. Taiwan and most of Korea will be lost to the sea.With the shifting of the plate, the coastal region of China will be pushed inland hundreds of miles.Indonesia will break up, although some islands will remain and new land will rise. The Philippines

will disappear beneath the sea.Asia will lose a significant amount of its land mass through these changes, yet new land will be

born.

Australia

Australia will lose approximately twenty-five percent of its land mass due to inundation of coastal areas. The Adelaide area will become an inland sea all the way north to Lake Eyre. The Simpson and Gibson Deserts will become fertile land. Great communities based on spiritual principles will form between the Great Sandy and Simpson Deserts. Another settlement will arise in Queensland. New land will rise off the coast. New Zealand will grow in size, once again joining the land of old — Australia. The two lands will be

joined by an isthmus, formed by rising land and volcanic activity. New Zealand will become the new frontier

America de Sud /South America

Central America and the CaribbeanCentral America will be inundated and reduced to a series of islands. Elevations above 500 meters will be considered safe. A new waterway will form from the Bay of Honduras to Salinas, Ecuador.

The Panama Canal will become impassable.

South America In South America great Earth changes will occur, including earthquake and volcanic activity. The

land will be affected like a blanket shaken severely from one end to the other. Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil will be greatly inundated. The Amazon Basin area will become a great inland sea. Peru

and Bolivia will be inundated.

Antarctica

Antarctica will be reborn, becoming fertile land again. The land once known as Lumania will be uncovered, and great cities and temple sites will be rediscovered. Land will rise from the Antarctic

Peninsula to Tierra del Fuego, and eastward to South Georgia Island.

Perioade critice pentru cutremure declansate de maree magmatice in 2005-2009

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vedeti celelalte ferestre de risc seismic pe linurile de mai sus

2. Study Suggests Giant Space Clouds Iced Earth(March 04, 2005) Eons ago, giant clouds in space may have led to global extinctions, according to two recent technical papers supported by NASA's Astrobiology Institute. One paper outlines a rare scenario in which Earth iced over during snowball glaciations, after the solar system passed through dense space clouds. In a more likely scenario, less dense giant molecular clouds may have enabled charged particles to enter Earth's atmosphere, leading to destruction of much of the planet's protective ozone layer. This resulted in global extinctions, according to the second paper. Both recently appeared in the Geophysical Research Letters. Computer models show dramatic climate change can be caused by interstellar dust accumulating in Earth's atmosphere during the solar system's immersion into a dense space cloud," said Alex Pavlov, principal author of the two papers. He is a scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder. The resulting dust layer hovering over the Earth would absorb and scatter solar radiation, yet allow heat to escape from the planet into space, causing runaway ice buildup and snowball glaciations.

"There are indications from 600 to 800 million years ago; at least two of four glaciations were snowball glaciations. The big mystery revolves around how they are triggered," Pavlov said. He concluded the snowball glaciations covered the entire Earth.

Pavlov said this hypothesis has to be tested by geologists. They would look at Earth's rocks to find layers that relate to the snowball glaciations to assess whether uranium 235 is present in higher amounts. It cannot be produced naturally on Earth or in the solar system, but it is constantly produced in space clouds by exploding stars called supernovae.

Sudden, small changes in the uranium 235/238-ratio in rock layers would be proof interstellar material is present that originated from supernovae. Collisions of the solar system with dense space clouds are rare, but according to Pavlov’s research, more frequent solar system collisions, with moderately dense space clouds, can be devastating. He outlined a complex series of events that would result in loss of much of Earth's protective ozone layer, if the solar system collided with a moderately dense space cloud.

The research outlined a scenario that begins as Earth passes through a moderately dense space cloud that cannot compress the outer edge of the sun's heliosphere into a region within the Earth's orbit. The heliosphere is the expanse that begins at the sun's surface and usually reaches far past the orbits of the planets. Because it remains beyond Earth's orbit, the heliosphere continues to deflect dust particles away from the planet.

However, because of the large flow of hydrogen from space clouds into the sun's heliosphere, the sun greatly increases its production of electrically charged cosmic rays from the hydrogen particles. This also increases the flow of cosmic rays towards Earth. Normally, Earth's magnetic field and ozone layer protect life from cosmic rays and the sun's dangerous ultraviolet

radiation.

Moderately dense space clouds are huge, and the solar system could take as long as 500,000 years to cross one of them. Once in such a cloud, the Earth would be expected to undergo at least one magnetic reversal. During a reversal, electrically charged cosmic rays can enter Earth's atmosphere instead of being deflected by the planet's magnetic field.

Cosmic rays can fly into the atmosphere and break up nitrogen molecules to form nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxide catalysts would set off the destruction of as much as 40 percent of the protective ozone in the planet's upper atmosphere across the globe and destruction of about 80 percent of the ozone over the polar regions according to Pavlov.

3.MELTING ICE CAPS WILL TRIGGER BIG EARHQUAKES

Topirea rapida a ghetarilor duce la formarea de cutremure(05.08.2004).

        Un nou studiu al datelor obtinute de sateliti sugereaza ca topirea rapida a ghetarilor in Alaska poate determina literalmente inaltarea pamantului, generand astfel puternice cutremure.         Multi duintre ghetarii din sudul Alaskai s-au micsorat sau chiar au disparut in decursul ultimului secol. Una dintre marile falii tectonice trece chiar prin zona de coasta a Alaskai, formand aici un lant muntos. Cum greutatea ghetii scade cu zi ce trece, pamantul se poate inalta mult mai usor, lucru ce duce la cutremure de mare magnitudine.         Conform studiului, cutremurul de 7,2 grade din 1979 din sudul Alaskai ,a fost pornit de topirea ghetarilor. S-a ajuns la aceasta concluzie dupa ce s-a analizat cata gheata s-a topit de la ultimul mare cutremur din zona si instabilitatea pe care a provocat-o masa redusa a solului.         "In viitor, in zone ca Alaska unde cutremurele sunt frecvente si ghetarii sufera modificari importante, relatia dintre acestea poate fi folosita pentru o mai buna intelegere a ambelor fenomene si un mai bun management in caz de dezastru. Datele furnizate de sateliti ne permit sa facem acest lucru prin monitorizarea schimbarilor formei si volumului ghetarilor, respectiv miscarilor scoartei terestre", mentioneaza cercetatori din cadrul NASA.

4.Strong Earth tides can trigger earthquakes, UCLA scientists report

October 22, 2004

Earthquakes can be triggered by the Earth's tides, UCLA scientists confirmed Oct. 21 in Science Express, the online journal of Science. Earth tides are produced by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun on the Earth, causing the ocean's waters

to slosh, which in turn raise and lower stress on faults roughly twice a day. Scientists have wondered about the effects of Earth tides for more than 100 years. (The research will be published in the print version of Science in November.)

"Large tides have a significant effect in triggering earthquakes," said Elizabeth Cochran, a UCLA graduate student in Earth and space sciences and lead author of the Science paper. "The earthquakes would have happened anyway, but they can be pushed

sooner or later by the stress fluctuations of the tides."

"Scientists have long suspected the tides played a role, but no one has been able to prove that for earthquakes worldwide until now," said John Vidale, UCLA professor of Earth and space sciences, interim director of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, and co-author of the paper. "Earthquakes have shown such clear

correlations in only a few special settings, such as just below the sea-floor or near volcanoes."

"There are many mysteries about how earthquakes occur, and this clears up one of them," Vidale said. "We find that it takes about the force arising from changing the

sea level by a couple of meters of water to noticeably affect the rate of earthquakes. This is a concrete step in understanding what it takes to set off an

earthquake." Cochran, Vidale and co-author Sachiko Tanaka are the first researchers to factor in both the phase of the tides and the size of the tides, and are using

calculations of the effects of the tides more accurate than were available just three years ago. Tanaka is a seismologist with Japan's National Research Institute for

Earth Science and Disaster Prevention. Cochran and Vidale analyzed more than 2,000 earthquakes worldwide, magnitude 5.5 and

higher, which struck from 1977 to 2000. They studied earthquakes in "subduction zones" where one tectonic plate dives under another, such as near the coasts of Alaska, Japan, New Zealand and western South America. "These earthquakes show a

correlation with tides because along continent edges ocean tides are strong," Vidale said, "and the orientation of the fault plane is better known than for faults

elsewhere." Cochran conducted a statistical analysis of the earthquakes and tidal stress data,

using state-of-the-science tide calculations from Tanaka and the best global earthquake data, which came from Harvard seismologists. This research follows up on a

2002 study by Tanaka. The current research was funded by the National Science Foundation and the Laurence Livermore National Laboratory. Cochran and Vidale found a strong correlation between when earthquakes strike and when tidal stress on fault

planes is high, and the likelihood of these results occurring by chance is less than one in 10,000, Cochran said. They found that strong tides impose enough stress on shallow faults to trigger earthquakes. If the tides are very large, more than two meters, three?quarters of the earthquakes occur when tidal stress acts to encourage triggering, she found. Fewer earthquakes are triggered when the tides are smaller. In California, and in fact in most places in the world, the correlation between

earthquakes and tides is considerably smaller, Vidale said. In California, tides may vary the rate of earthquakes at most one or two percent; the overall effect of the tides is smaller, he said, because the faults studied are many miles inland from the

coast and the tides are not particularly large University of California - Los Angeles

Printed from: http://www.brightsurf.com/news/oct_04/EDU_news_102204_c.php

Tasmania 8.1Dec 23, 2004

A great earthquake occurred at 14:59:04 (UTC) on Thursday, December 23, 2004. The magnitude 8.1 event has been located North of MacQuarie Island. (This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.)

Magnitude 8.1 Date-Time Thursday, December 23, 2004 at 14:59:04 (UTC)= Coordinated Universal Time Friday, December 24, 2004 at 1:59:04 AM = local time at epicenter Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones Location 50.240°S, 160.133°E Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program Region NORTH OF MACQUARIE ISLAND Distances 420 km (260 miles) W of Auckland Island, New Zealand495 km (305 miles) N of Macquarie Island, Australia1515 km (940 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand1890 km (1170 miles) SSE of CANBERRA, A.C.T., Australia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.4 km (7.7 miles); depth fixed by location program Parameters Nst=125, Nph=125, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.33 sec, Gp= 25°,M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8 Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID ussjal Felt Reports Felt throughout Tasmania, Australia and felt in Southland, West Coast and other parts of the South Island, New Zealand.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/ussjal/

Perioade critice pentru cutremure declansate de maree magmatice in 2005-2012

Diagram of time intervals between consecutive New Moons (duration of the lunation)for 2004, January to 2025, September.

The mean value of 269 lunations is 29.5295 days. The mean value for a long time is 29.530589 days = 29 days 12 hours 44 minutes 03 seconds

(synodic month). Extreme lunations:

New Moon Duration of the lunation Moon, Earth

1973, 24, 15:08 Dec UT 1974, 23, 11:04to Jan

UT

29 19 56 = 29.8306 d h m d= 29 12 44 + 7 12 d h m h m

Moon apogee Dec 25, Jan 28Earth perihelion Jan 04

2035, 06, 03:22 Jun UT 2035, 05, 10:02to Jul

UT

29 06 40 = 29.2778 d h m d= 29 12 44 - 6 04 d h m h m

Moon perigee Jun 06, Jul 04Earth aphelion Jul 05

The variation is due to the excentricity of the Earth's orbit. The lunation will have its greatest possible duration when, at the instant of New Moon, the Moon is near its apogee and the Earth is near its perihelion. The shortest possible lunation will take place about six months earlier or later, when at New Moon the Moon is near perigee and the Earth near aphelion. There is a period 8.85 years.

A detailed discussion:Jean Meeus: More mathematical Astronomy Morsels, Willman-Bell, 2002, ISBN 0-943396-74-3

Earth-Moon and Sun-Earth distances There is a periodicity of 19 years (Metonic Cycle):

19 = 19 * 365.24219 = 6 939.602 tropical years days days 235 lunations = 235 * 29.530589 days = 6 939.688 days

with an error of 0.086 days (2 h 4 min). The 19-year cycle is also close (to somewhat more than half a day) to 255 draconic months, so it also is an eclipse cycle.

Diagram of time intervals between consecutive Full Moons (duration of the lunation)for 2004, January to 2025, September (computed by Planet Applet)

Diagram of time intervals between consecutive ascending node passages (draconic month)for 2004, January to 2024, December (computed by Planet Applet)

The mean value of 284 ascending node passages is 27.2133 days. The Saros Cycle:

Synodic Month (New Moon to New Moon)

29.53059 days = 29d 12h 44m

Draconic Month (node to node) 27.21222 days = 27d 05h 06m

223 Synodic Months 223 * 29.53059 d = 6585.32 d ‰ 18 years 10 or 11 d 8 h

242 Draconic Months 242 * 27.21222 d = 6585.35 d ‰ 18 years 10 or 11 d 8 h

Any two eclipses separated by one Saros Cycle share very similar geometries.

Diagram of time intervals between consecutive perigees (anomalistic month)for 2004, January to 2025, September (computed by Planet Applet)

The mean duration of 284 anomalistic months is 27.555 days.

Perigee distances:

The mean perigee distance of 284 anomalistic months is 362562.4 km.

A Blue Moon is the second full moon in a calendar month. Usually months have only one full moon, but occasionally a second one sneaks in. Full moons are separated by 29 days, while most months are 30 or 31 days long; so it is possible to fit two full moons in a single month. This happens every two and a half years, on average.

Precursori magneticiE-LETTER Earth Planets Space, 54, e9–e12, 2002

Small electric and magnetic signals observed before the arrival of seismic wave

Y. Honkura1, M. Matsushima1, N. Oshiman2, M. K. Tunc¸er3, S¸ . Baris¸3, A. Ito4, Y. Iio2, and A. M. Is¸ikara3

1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo 152-8551, Japan2Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan3Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bo˘gazic¸i University, Istanbul 81220, Turkey4Faculty of Education, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya 321-8505, Japan(Received September 10, 2002; Revised November 14, 2002; Accepted December 6, 2002)Electric and magnetic data were obtained above the focal area in association with the 1999 Izmit, Turkeyearthquake. The acquired data are extremely important for studies of electromagnetic phenomena associated withearthquakes, which have attracted much attention even without clear physical understanding of their characteristics.We have already reported that large electric and magnetic variations observed during the earthquake were simplydue to seismic waves through the mechanism of seismic dynamo effect, because they appeared neither before norsimultaneously with the origin time of the earthquake but a few seconds later, with the arrival of seismic wave. Inthis letter we show the result of our further analyses. Our detailed examination of the electric and magnetic datadisclosed small signals appearing less than one second before the large signals associated with the seismic waves.It is not yet solved whether this observational fact is simply one aspect of the seismic dynamo effect or requires anew mechanism.Key words: Izmit earthquake, seismic dynamo effect, seismic wave, electric and magnetic changes1. IntroductionObservations of changes in the electromagnetic field beforeearthquake occurrences have been supposed as one ofthe possible methods in earthquake prediction (e.g. Honkura,1981). However, no firm observational evidence with a clearphysical mechanism has been obtained, although some likelymechanisms have been proposed to account for ambiguousobservational results; the electrokinetic effect (Mizutani etal., 1976; Ishido and Mizutani, 1981; Gershenzon et al.,1993; Haartsen and Pride, 1997), the piezoelectric effect(Gershenzon et al., 1993), the piezomagnetic effect (Staceyand Johnston, 1972; Sasai, 1980), and the electromagneticinduction effect (Gershenzon et al., 1993; Iyemori et al.,1996; Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima et al., 2002).Recent examples of unambiguous electric field changesindicate that the arrival of electric signals is synchronizedwith the arrival of seismic waves (Yamada and Murakami,1982; Mogi et al., 2000; Nagao et al., 2000), but the possibilitywas pointed out that the magnetic field started to changebefore seismic wave arrival in the case of the 1995 Kobeearthquake (Iyemori et al., 1996). In the meantime, we couldobtain a set of electromagnetic data in the focal area of the1999 Izmit earthquake (Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima etal., 2002), which is extremely valuable for studies of electromagneticfield changes associated with earthquakes. Someoverall characteristics of electric and magnetic field changeswere already shown (Honkura et al., 2000; Matsushima etal., 2002), and in this letter we focus our attention on thenew finding.Copy right c _ The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences(SGEPSS); The Seismological Society of Japan; The Volcanological Society of Japan;The Geodetic Society of Japan; The Japanese Society for Planetary Sciences.

2. DataThe data were obtained at four sites, denoted by 118, 120,121 and 122 in Fig. 1, among many sites temporarily establishedfor magnetotelluric (MT) observations across twofault zones; the northern one was in fact ruptured at the timeof the Izmit earthquake. Also at the reference site, denotedby 001 in Fig. 1, MT signals were measured for remote referenceprocessing of MT data. Hence the simultaneous electric(two components) and magnetic (three components) data atfive sites are available.3. On the Arrival Time of Electric and MagneticSignalsWe first try to identify the arrival time of electric and magneticsignals in the raw time series data at four sites locatedabove the focal area. The electric and magnetic signals seemto have arrived about three seconds after the origin time ofthe Izmit earthquake as shown in Fig. 2, and no significantchanges can be seen before and during a few seconds afterthe origin time. The arrival time of these electric and magneticsignals seems to correspond to the arrival time of seismic

waves, but we cannot confirm this because no seismicrecords are available at the MT sites.In this respect, we can use another set of electromagneticand seismic velocity records simultaneously acquired at sites121 and 122 during aftershock activity. In this case, however,the electromagnetic signals for small aftershocks are sosmall that they are obscured by naturally occurring MT variations,which obviously have nothing to do with earthquakes.Hence it is not straightforward to identify the arrival time ofelectromagnetic signals.e9e10 Y. HONKURA et al.: ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC SIGNALS BEFORE THE SEISMIC WAVE

4. Removal of Known MT SignalsNatural MT signals consist of external and internal origins,the latter resulting from electromagnetic induction inthe conducting Earth. The scale length of MT signals of externalorigin is so long that they can be regarded as uniformover the region shown in Fig. 1. Also the electromagneticinduction is governed by a set of linear equations. Hence,each component of MT fields at sites 118, 120, 121 and 122should be correlated with the horizontal magnetic field at thereference site 001; in fact, this is the basis for remote refer-2930'2930'3000'3000'3030'3030'4030' 4030'4100' 4100'Main shock UCGMarmaraIznik L.Sapanca L.IznikGolcukIzmitAdapazari

001118120 121122Aftershock

Fig. 1. Locations of magnetotelluric (MT) observation sites along anorth-south profile crossing the focal area of the 1999 Izmit earthquake(Honkura et al., 2000). At the sites denoted by 118, 120, 121 and 122,MT measurements were in operation during the Izmit earthquake in additionto the reference site denoted by 001 near the southern fault. Alarge star symbol shows the epicenter of the Izmit earthquake (Honkuraet al., 2000). A small star symbol located near Izmit City indicates theepicenter of a small aftershock for which the electromagnetic and seismicrecords are shown in Fig. 3. UCG is the closest seismic station operatedby T ¨ UBITAK ( ¨ Ozalaybey et al., 2002).01:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43

Time202

Adjusted amplitude(b) Site 12001:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43

Time202

Adjusted amplitude(a) Site 11801:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43

Time101

Adjusted amplitude(d) Site 122ExEyHxHyHz01:38 01:39 01:40 01:41 01:42 01:43

Time101

Adjusted amplitude(c) Site 121Main shockEM signalFig. 2. Electric and magnetic field variations at (a) site 118, (b) site 120, (c) site 121 and (d) site 122. Ex and Ey are the northward and the eastwardelectric fields, respectively. Hx, Hy and Hz are the northward, the eastward and the downward magnetic fields. The amplitudes are adjusted so that thenoise level before the onset of changes indicated by a black arrow becomes nearly the same for all the components at each site. The origin of the abscissacorresponds to 00h01m38s (UTC), August 17, 1999. The origin time of the Izmit earthquake is 00h01m38.37s (Honkura et al., 2000) as indicated byanother arrow. The arrival of electromagnetic field signals has been interpreted as corresponding to the first arrival of seismic wave, before which nochanges exceeding the noise level can be seen in the figure.ence processing in MT. We can therefore predict MT signalsat sites 118, 120, 121 and 122 from the northward and theeastward magnetic field variations at the reference site 001,which are regarded as inputs to a kind of linear system. Inthe present case, we used the multi-channel Wiener filteringtechnique (Davis et al., 1981), and found that it is effective,

particularly for the magnetic field, in removing the known,predictable MT signals from the observed data at four sites.5. Electric and Magnetic Signals Associated withan AftershockOne example for an aftershock located beneath Izmit City(see Fig. 1) is shown in Fig. 3. At site 121, small yet clearsignals can be distinguished from the background noise afterthe prediction operation. In this case, the onset of electricand magnetic field changes seems to be simultaneous withthe P-wave arrival within the accuracy of 1/24 second (MTdata sampling interval). At site 122, only magnetic signalscan be identified within the time interval shown in the figure,and the onset in the northward (Hx) and eastward (Hy)components of the magnetic field is slightly later than theP-wave arrival.As for the mechanism of such electric and magneticsignals, we have proposed the generation of electric andmagnetic fields by seismic waves (Honkura et al., 2000;Matsushima et al., 2002). It is well known that motion of aconductor in the magnetic field gives rise to an electromotiveforce within the conductor. Seismic waves are obviouslyregarded as oscillations of the elastic and conducting Earth,and the Earth’s magnetic field of core origin prevails everywherein the Earth. We have called this mechanism the ‘seismicdynamo effect’, referring to the core dynamo originatingY. HONKURA et al.: ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC SIGNALS BEFORE THE SEISMIC WAVE e110 1 2

Time (sec)011

Normalized amplitude(b) Magnetic field at site 1210 1 2

Time (sec)011

Normalized amplitude(a) Electric field at site 1210 1 2

Time (sec)011

Normalized amplitude(d) Magnetic field at site 122HxHyHzUDNSEW0 1 2

Time (sec)011

Normalized amplitude(c) Electric field at site 122ExEyUDNSEWEPPPH HPFig. 3. Electric and magnetic field variations associated with the aftershock shown in Fig. 1. Ex and Ey are the northward and the eastward electric fields,respectively. UD, NS and EW are the vertical, the north-south and the east-west components of ground velocity. Hx, Hy and Hz are the northward,the eastward and the downward magnetic fields. The amplitude is normalized for each component with respect to its maximum range in a later mainportion showing larger variations. As in Fig. 2, the noise level before the onset of changes associated with seismic waves is nearly the same for all thecomponents at each site. The origin of the abscissa corresponds to 22h13m31.25s (UTC), September 18, 1999. The arrows with E and H indicate theestimated arrival time of electric and magnetic signals, respectively. The arrow with P denotes the arrival time of seismic P-wave as clearly identifiedby the vertical component. The sampling frequency is 24 Hz and hence the time resolution is 1/24 second as indicated by ticks on the abscissa. In thisexample, the arrival of electromagnetic fields can be regarded as simultaneous with the P-wave arrival.00:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42

Time202

Adjusted amplitude(b) Site 12000:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42

Time202

Adjusted amplitude(a) Site 11800:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42

Time404

Adjusted amplitude (d) Site 122Ex

EyHxHyHz00:01:40 00:01:41 00:01:42

Time404

Adjusted amplitude(c) Site 121Fig. 4. Close-up view of Fig. 2; variations are made two orders of magnitude larger. The origin of the abscissa corresponds to 00h01m40s (UTC),August 17, 1999. The scale of this figure is nearly the same as that of Fig. 3, as understood by the noise levels before the signals appear. The arrivalof electromagnetic signals corresponding to the first arrival of seismic wave is indicated by a vertical dotted line. We can recognize slow rises in somecomponents before the dotted lines, but the arrival times, as indicated by arrows, of these slow signals are earlier only by a fraction of second at all thesites. Nonetheless, these signals exceed the noise levels and hence they are significant.from the term v × B where v is the velocity of conductingfluid in the Earth’s core and B is the magnetic field. The onlydifference is that in the seismic dynamo effect v is the motionof elastic medium, instead of fluid motion. For quantitativeanalyses we must certainly take into account the effect ofvibrations of the MT equipment.e12 Y. HONKURA et al.: ELECTRIC AND MAGNETIC SIGNALS BEFORE THE SEISMIC WAVE

6. Electric and Magnetic Signals Associated withthe Main ShockIn the case of a small aftershock as shown in Fig. 3,the electromagnetic signals are slightly larger than the noiselevel, but the signals for the main shock shown in Fig. 2 aremuch larger and we can examine the signals in more detail.Here we focus our attention on the portions near the arrivalof electromagnetic signals. Surprisingly, as shown in Fig. 4,gradual changes in some components (Ex, Hy, Hz at site118; Hx, Hy, Hz at site 120; Hx, Hy at site 121; Hx, Hyat site 122) can be seen before the expected arrival of seismicwaves. Duration of such changes is only a fraction ofone second and their arrival is well after the origin time ofthe Izmit earthquake.7. DiscussionThe reason why such earlier arrival of electromagnetic signalscould not be detected in the case of the small aftershockshown in Fig. 3 is simply because the signals themselves aremuch smaller, as explained in more detail below. In Figs. 2and 4, the ordinate scales are adjusted, respectively, so thatthe signals under consideration are well recognized. In fact,the scale of the ordinate of Fig. 4 is magnified by two ordersof magnitude, compared with Fig. 2, and it is now comparablewith that of Fig. 3, in which the amplitude of electric fieldvariation is the order of 10-6-10-7 V/m. For the magneticfield, we must make corrections of the frequency-dependentsensor response to the output data and in the case of Fig. 3,the amplitude of magnetic field variation turned out to be ofthe order of 10-12 T. The signals for the main shock (Ms = 7.4) are at least two orders of magnitude larger than those forthe aftershock (ML = 2.8).Theoretically, one may claim that electromagnetic signalsshould propagate in the Earth with the electromagnetic-wavespeed and hence they should be observed much earlier thanthe arrival of seismic waves, nearly simultaneously with theorigin time of the main shock. We have clearly shown thatthis is not the case, observationally. The pieces of evidenceshown in this letter impose firm constraints on the mechanismof propagation of electromagnetic signals, includingattenuation of the high-frequency signals in the conductingEarth (Honkura and Kuwata, 1993). In particular, this letterstimulates us to a challenging theoretical work on the seismicdynamo effect; electromagnetic induction in the conductingEarth by a traveling electromotive source due to seismicwaves radiated from the earthquake source area.Alternatively, such an earlier signal may be related to apossible initial slow slip immediately before the main faultrupture (e.g. Iio, 1995). However, as pointed out by Johnstonand Linde (2002), such a slow slip is at least three ordersof magnitude smaller than the slip during the main shock.Our results show that the slow electromagnetic variations are

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