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Vigilant State 3
COLLECTION
INTELLIGENCE
Vigilant State 3
• 2 Types of Problems for Analysts
• Bureaucratic Pathologies
• Psychological Dissonance
Lecture will deal with bureaucracy and seminar will deal with psychology
1. Politics of Intelligence Analysis
Vigilant State 3
1. Politics of Intelligence Analysis common forms -• Interest Groups e.g. agencies fight for budget
share and influence• Bargaining Systems e.g. compromise for
producing national estimates• Political Interference e.g. called for to support
entrenched policies • Procurement & Industry e.g. employed to justify
large defence spends
2. Democracies and Autocracies
Vigilant State 3
2. Democracies and Autocracies• In autocracies - ideological problems and power
problems• But politicisation no less strong in democracy ?• social choice over budget• government and opposition – the infamous gap
debates• public opinion and mass media in fp making -
ISC's question – our own project• prone to investigation – e.g. Franks Report, FAC,
Butler
3. Responses to Political Pressure
Sherman
Kent
Vigilant State 3
• 3. Responses –
• A) IDEALISM OR PUSH – O.N.E.
• Sherman Kent, Lyman Kirkpatrick, Ray Cline - more recently S.R. Ward
• insulate/distance from unethical pressures - set the agenda
Vigilant State 3
• B) REALISM OR PULL – D.I.A.
• to survive ‘go with the flow’ - agency competition will deliver objectivity
• Carmen Medina serve the customer’s requirements + new IT
• must have own policy as input• e.g. Nixon and China – not told
China? Nixon and DCI Richard Helms
4. Politicising Questions
Vigilant State 3
4. Problem of Politicising Questions Politicisation is easy because –• Competing agencies provide alternative answers• Because no-one knows what the right question is• e.g Iraqi missile numbers ? range ? production ? or
aircraft ?• Secrecy prevents investigation• Example of Johnson and Vietnam• CBS vs. General Abrams - Sam Adams – War of
Numbers• Remit of Butler Enquiry
5. Bureaucratic Politics
Vigilant State 3
• 5. Bureaucratic Politics
• No real DCI/DNI even with Mike McConnell• NIE process = bland /coaltions• A Team / B Team each change introduces new
pathologies• Committee process is very slow• Each Bureau grows its own - 14 in Saigon • Even struggles within intelligence orgs• Iran SI vs. SO Vietnam SI vs. SO
Chairman
(Cabinet Office)
DUS(Defence & Intelligence) and Whitehall Liaison DepartmentForeign Office
Director General
Security Service
Chief of the Assessments Staff
(Cabinet Office)
‘C’
(SIS)
Director HM Treasury
Director
GCHQ Policy Director Ministry of Defence
DFID
CDI
(Ministry of Defence)
Joint
Intelligence
Committee
Director of Export Control & Non-Proliferation
Department of Trade & Industry
DG Org & Int Crime Directorate
Home Office
The UK Joint Intelligence Committee
PM’s Foreign Policy Advisor (Hd OD)
Security & Intelligence Co-ordinator (Cabinet Office)
Policy
Collection
Analysis
6. Role of the Individual
Vigilant State 3
6. Role of the Individual
• Military valuesLoyalty – Tenacity - Speed of decision - Wisdom
resides with rank/experience• Academic valuesFlat hierarchy - Unorthodox thinking – Reflective -
DisrespectfulCivilianize? Non-career ? • Osmosis/Strategic CultureIndividuals rarely have to be told about valuesAnalogies - the weight of the shadow of the past
7. Intelligence at the Top
John Scarlett
Chair of JIC 2003
Vigilant State 3
7. Intelligence at the Top
• Personality key at the top - Interface with decision-makers• Must have credibility• Must be able to inspire action• Hitler’s entourage clearly impossible Churchill, Johnson, Nixon also difficult• Blair's Ministerial Committee on Intelligence• How pressurised was the UK JIC in 2003?
8. The Problem of Deception
Vigilant State 3
• 8. Problem of Deception
• 2 forms of deception
• A) Counter-intelligence deception• Paralyse by creating security problems• James Jesus Angleton• Spycatcher & Roger Hollis
Vigilant State 3
B) Strategic Deception
• Need to monitor the bait• Exploit the enemy good intell system• Exploit the enemy presumptions• Reinforce what they want to believe - eg
Iraqi WMD
Vigilant State 3
• Q. How do analysts guard against these problems bureaucratic problems?
• A. Endless re-designing of machinery
• Q. How do analysts deal with psychological problems?
• A. Endless training to think outside the box
• Q. So why does it still fail?• A. I will explain next week!!!