Vigilant State 2

COLLECTION

INTELLIGENCE

1. Strategic Revolutions

Vigilant State 2

• 1. Strategic Revolutions

• mobility

• surprise attack

• nuclear weapons

• premium on warning

Vigilant State 2

NEW sophistication of intelligence including –

• humint + deception in 1870s• sigint WWI• imint WWII• processing 1960s• producing information on intentions

and capabilities

2. The Problem of Surprise

Vigilant State 2

• 2. Surprise and the Intelligence Cycle

• Why do surprise attacks occur so often ?

• All surprise attacks = intelligence failures ??

The Intelligence Cycle

DIRECTION

DISSEMINATION

PROCESSING

COLLECTION

3. Human Intelligence

Vigilant State 2

• 3. Human Intelligence or Humint

• Classic form – Go Spy the Land• Types of motivation• Cheap• Good on intentions• Good on non-state actors

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• Slow and involves communications risk

• Requires high skill levels especially in secure states

• Defectors & Deception – who is master?

• Overlap with bugging

4. Technical

Vigilant State 2

• 4. Technical

• Signals Intelligence – Sigint • Imagery – Imint• Classic form – Bletchley Park• Types of sigint – comint and elint• Increasingly Expensive & Crypto Problem• Good on capabilities

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• Weak on non-state actors

• Fast & can be re-tasked quickly

• Fewer security worries - but overload

• Also can be deceived – Kola

• Overlap with bugging

5. Open Source

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5. Open Sources – Opint

• Classic form – Newspapers • Internet• FBIS• Cheap + issue of prestige• End of closed states – BBC 1990s

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• Weak on the last pariah states

• Weak on important state aspects eg WMD

• Fewer security worries - but info overload

• Can be shared and pooled – important!!!

6. Political and Ethical Risks

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6. Political and Ethical Risks

• A. Human

• High political and ethical risk• Decline of the ideological spy• Induces paranoia on all sides ?

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• B. Technical

• Was perceived as low risk

• 100s lost in aircraft and submarines

• Only satellites are low risk

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Is intelligence provocative or benign ?

• ‘You shall know the truth and its shall make you free’

• Scott Sagan on the Alaskan Incident

7. “Pressure” - Collection Now

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7. Collection in the 21st century

• A. the 1990s debate• end of the cold war & endless new targets• red mafia, proliferation, humanitarian• budget grabbing• By 1999 the toilet cleaners of globalisation?

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• B. 11 September 2001

• How much change there had been?• 50% have been there 18 months• Privatisation• Watch and Wait or Seize and Strike?• Globalisation ?