Auto-Fuel Policy roadmap: The urgency to advance BS IV and the feasibility of leapfrog to BS VI

Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority for NCR

January 2016

1. In the past India has tightened its fuel-auto emission standards by leapfrogging from Euro Zero (10,000 ppm of sulphur) in 1996 to Euro II (500 ppm) in 1999 in Delhi and select metros. The Auto-Fuel Policy roadmap 2003as per the Mashelkar Committee 2001 was adhered to as follows:

Euro II: 500 ppmsulphur nationwide on April 1 2005Euro III: 350 ppmsulphur in Delhi and 7 cities on April 1 2005Euro III: 350 ppmsulphur nationwide on April 1 2010Euro IV: 50 ppmsulphur in Delhi (now 30 cities) on April 1 2010

2. The Auto Fuel Vision and Policy 2025 (chairmanship of SaumitraChaudhuri, former member, Planning Commission) has put forward the following roadmap:

Euro IV: nationwide by April 1, 2017Euro V: nationwide by April 1, 2020Euro VI: nationwide by April 1, 2024

3. We believe this roadmap is not adequate to deal with air pollution across the country. Also it is better for Indian refineries and automobile companies to take quicker steps to meet global best fuel-auto emission standards, as this will improve competitive advantage.

4. Based on the public health imperative and after discussions with fuel and auto companies and experts the following roadmap is recommended:

a. Advance BS IV to April 1 2016 (only a small portion of border areas of J&K, Uttarakhand, Northeast will remain). According to officials of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) by April 1 2016 over 75 per cent of the fuel supplied and sold can be changed to Euro IV. The bulk of the remaining is in border areas, where defense forces use diesel. Here by April 1 2017 this fuel will also be supplied. This advancement is critical, as it would mean that all trucks that travel long distances and today use BS III technology and fuel would be drastically improved. It is estimated that moving from BS III to BS IV in the heavy vehicle category will reduce PM emissions by 80 per cent from each vehicle.

b. Introduce BS VI (Euro VI) fuel and vehicle technology nationwide by 2020 and if possible advance it further in key

metros. This would mean skipping Euro V altogether and leapfrogging to Euro VI. This is also possible. MoPNG has given in writing to EPCA that will be able to supply Euro VI fuel nationwide by 2020. It is also clear that petrol vehicles will have no problems in meeting these emission standards by 2020. The problem is with diesel light duty (private cars) and heavy-duty vehicles. The technology challenge with these vehicles is to meet the PM and NOx emission reductions along with ensuring that there is a balance between fuel economy. But clearly, with four years for research and development, this is possible to achieve. It is in Euro VI that gap between diesel and petrol emissions is closed and there is both control of PM and NOx. It is important to note that NOx emissions are on the increase. And what is even or greater worry is ozone – which is a secondary pollutant from NOx is increasing. This is a dangerous pollutant, with huge health impacts on lungs.

Why it is important to advance BS IV nationwide by one year5. Currently BS IV is available in over 30 cities of India, but it is not available

across the country, trucks and other heavy vehicles continue to be registered as BS III. All inter-state vehicles operating on national permit therefore can be registered even if BS III. As per government’s proposal, these BS III vehicles can be registered till April 1, 2017. Also these vehicles using much dirtier fuel (350 ppm of sulphur as compared to 50 ppm in BS IV) and contribute hugely to pollution across the country (see attached graphs).

6. It is also clear that automobile manufacturers are ready to produce BS IV compliant vehicles. In fact, petrol car manufacturers do not produce BS III vehicles anymore; diesel car manufacturers produce BS III for the taxi segment and diesel truck and bus manufacturers have already got type approval but do not have orders for supply.

State of preparedness of automobile manufacturers to move to BS IVCompany Car

(petrol/diesel)Bus Truck

Maruti Only selling BS IV

-- --

Ashok Leyland Selling BS IV in Delhi and other metro cities

Have BS IV truck certified by ARAI, can produce, but no orders

Tata Selling BS III where these can be registered. But small in number

Selling BS IV in Delhi and other metro cities

Have BS IV truck certified by ARAI, can produce, but no orders

Toyota Selling BS III Innova (less than

10% of all sales)Reno/Nissan Only BS IVHonda Only BS IVEicher BS IV type

approval. No orders

BS IV type approval done. No orders

Mahendra Selling BS III. No numbers but company sales diesel SUV sales sold outside metro cities could be substantial as these are used as taxi

Have BS IV truck certified by ARAI, can produce but no orders

GM Only BS IVFiat Only BS IV

In the case of fuel, the cost is to bring down sulphur in fuel from 350 ppm to 10 ppm and this can be done in one-leap

7. The difference in fuel standards is mainly between Euro IV and Euro V, when sulphur is brought down to 10 ppm, which allows for after-treatment devices like particulatefilters to be installed on diesel vehicles.

Euro IV Euro V Euro VIRON of gasoline

91 95* 95

Benzene 1% 1% 1%Sulphur 50 ppm 10 ppm 10 ppmOlefin in gasoline

21 % 18 %* 18 %*

Aromatics 35 % 35 % 35 %PAH in diesel 11% 11% 8%

*Bharat Stage V (as prescribed by MoPNG committee) says 91**Bharat Stage V (as prescribed by MoPNG committee) says 21%

8. The capital investment estimated for refiners for fuel quality changes for BS IV all across the country is Rs 45,000 crore and to go to Euro V/VI is Rs 35,000 crore. In retrospect it would have been more cost-effective to go to Euro V/VI at one go, as the two-step cost of improvement could have been avoided. It is also clear that falling fuel prices is making it possible to make this investment at the earliest.

In the case of vehicle standards, by Euro V, light duty petrol vehicles emission standards are tightened and made stringent. However, in the

case of diesel vehicles, by Euro V only PM are tightened, but NOx is high. It is only when Euro VI emission standards are introduced do light-duty diesel vehicles come at par with petrol vehicles in terms of emissions as NOx is tightened. In the case of diesel heavy vehicles, only by Euro VI are standards tightened. In other words, emissions for diesel vehicles remain a problem till Euro VIis implemented.

9. The main problem we have is that we are following Europe in terms of fuel-emission standards, which has incentivized diesel believing that this is more fuel-efficient and so has CO2 benefits. But it has found, that this has not worked. So, even as Europe has tightened PM standards for diesel, it has increased NOx levels to dangerous levels. In Europe Euro IV and V standards legally allow diesel vehicles to emit 3 times more NOx than petrol. Even in Euro VI, diesel NOx norms are relatively lax as compared to petrol.

Emission standards roadmap for light duty vehicles in Europe and US

Emission standards roadmap and primary exhaust emission control technologies for heavy-duty vehicles in Europe and the US

Sources: Michael P. Walsh 2015, Worldwide Progress in Vehicle Technology and Emissions Norms Leaders and Laggards Need To Move Fast, Paper presented in Anil Agarwal Dialogue 2015: The Poor in Climate Change, Centre for Science And Environment, New Delhi, March 11, mimeo.

Cost of tightening emission standards in vehicles: the cost is for diesel vehicles, both light duty and heavy duty. From the analysis below, it is clear that it is only when emission standards are tightened at Euro 5 and 6 that diesel vehicles have to invest in improvements. The key improvement is to put diesel particulate trap (in Euro V) and then add a NOX trap and NOx control (in Euro VI).

Table on cost of changes in emission norms: In light duty vehiclesRegulation Petrol Cost

(Rs)Diesel Cost

(Rs)No control Carburetor-no

control- IDI-no control

1991 Adjustment in carburetor operation

-- IDI –improvement in mechanical fueling

--

1996 Adjustment in carburetor and EGR

1000 IDI –improvement in mechanical fueling

2000-Euro 1

Electronic fuel control

6800 IDI-improvement in electronic fueling method

2800

Catalytic converter EGR

EGR2000- Bharat II

Electronic fuel control (TBI/MPFI)

1500 Direct injection 4800

3-way catalytic converter with one oxygen sensor

ERG with cooling system

EGR2005-Bharat III

Electronic fuel system requires MPFI

2500 Common rail fuel injection at 900-1300 bar

18900

Oxygen sensor is upgraded with heating capabilities for cold start operations

EGR with cooling system

Low-thermal capacity manifolds for cold start emissions

Diesel oxidation catalysts for HC control

Engine calibration2010-Bharat IV

Similar to BS III 2900 Increased fuel injection pressure 1300-1600 bar

12,800

TWC system includes a close-coupled catalyst and a under-floor

Turbocharger and intercooler

Cooled EGROxidation catalyst

Euro V Improvement in combustion and catalytic converter performance

1200 Same technology as BS IV which includes reduction in compression ratio/make fuel injection higher pressure

15800

Improvement in fuel atomization with injection pressure 1600-1900 barDiesel particulate filter for PM control

Euro VI Improvement in combustion and catalytic converter performance

No cost

Same technology as BS IV

20,280

Improvement in fuel atomization with injection pressure 1800-2100 barDiesel particulate filter for PM control and lean

Nox trap for NOx control

Note: Prices from dollars to Rs calculated based on Rs 40 (in 1990s);Rs 50 in 2000 and Rs 60 for Euro V and VI

Source: GauravBansalet al 2013, Overview of India’s Vehicle Emissions Control Program: Past Successes and Future Prospects, The International Council on Clean Transportation

The world is moving fast to Euro VI auto-fuel standards and by 2017, it is estimated that most of the world, including countries in South Asia like Sri Lanka will be using Euro VI fuel. Most of these countries are fuel and vehicle importing countries and so, it will have impact on our competitiveness.

The current and future global roadmap for auto fuel-emissions is aggressive:

Sno Country Fuel-Emission standard current

Fuel-emission standard proposed

Year

1 Europe Euro VI 20142 China/Beijing Euro V Euro VI + 20173 China + 8 cities Euro V Euro VI+ 20174 Sri Lanka Euro V 20155 South Africa Euro II Euro V 2017

In the case of diesel cars the leapfrog from BS IV to BS VI brings big gains in pollution reduction

Leapfrog BS IV to BS VIPetrol cars (g/km)CO -- No changeHC -- No changeNOx-- 25% reduction

Leapfrog BS IV to BS VIDiesel cars (g/km)CO -- No changeHC+NOx -- reduction of 43%NOx -- reduction of 68%PM -- reduction of 82%

In the case of heavy duty vehicles, the move from BS III to BS IV leads to 80 per cent reduction in PM. Then the BS IV to BS VI leapfrog brings 70-90 per cent reduction in pollutants

Leapfrog BS IV to BS VIHeavy duty (g/kwh)CO -- No changeHC -- reduction by 71%NOx -- reduction by 87%PM -- reduction by 67%

Heavy Duty Vehicles (PM) (mg/Kwhr) Heavy duty (NOx) Euro VI (mg/Kwhr)

Conclusions/Recommendations1. From the above analysis it is clear that for the oil refineries the cost is

in reducing sulphur content in fuel to 10 ppm, from the current 350-50ppm.

2. For car companies, the cost in terms of petrol vehicles is marginal and once 10 ppm fuel is available, they can move to stringent emission standards at nominal cost and technology changes.

3. But light duty diesel vehicles have problems and this is what automobile industry is talking about. It is important to note that diesel vehicles continue to get a price advantage over petrol – even after deregulation because of lower taxes – and therefore, it makes no sense to give them also advantage in terms of emission controls. If we follow the European fuel-emission trajectory, then diesel light duty (including SUV segment) first brings in control on PM emissions and then NOx. This 2-step approach needs to be avoided through the leapfrog to BS 6 in one go.

4. As soon as 10 ppm fuel is available, then we should have fuel-neutral emission standard. This would mean that diesel and petrol light duty vehicles would meet the same norms.

5. In the case of heavy-duty vehicles like trucks the cost is higher. We would suggest that this category moves to Euro IV in 2016 (as 50 ppm fuel gets available across the country) and then does a one-step jump to Euro VI in 2020.

References

1. Anon 2003, Auto Fuel Policy, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Government of India

2. Anon 2014, Auto Fuel Vision and Policy 2025: Report of the Expert Committee, Government of India, May

3. GauravBansalet al 2013, Overview of India’s Vehicle Emissions Control Program: Past Successes and Future Prospects, The International Council on Clean Transportation

4. Sarah Chambliss et al 2015, Briefing: Accelerating progress from Euro 4/IV to Euro 6/VI vehicle emissions standards, The International Council on Clean Transportation, March