Vietnam in 2030.pdf

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Vietnam in 2030: The FutureDemographic

December 2010



© Euromonitor International

2

Population and Homes

Vietnam in 2030

Summary

Population Past, Present and Future

Population Shift

Ageing

Men and Women in Vietnam

Births and Deaths

Diversity

Population by Ethnicity

Cities

http://www.euromonitor.com/







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Summary

Vietnam in 2030

Population: 99.6 million

Median age: 36.7 years

Life expectancy: 78.2 years

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

‘ 0 0 0

Population Age Shift 2010-2030

2010 2030

Fastest-growing majorcities: 2010-2030

1. Hai Phong2. Hanoi3. Bien Hoa

75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

Population by Ethnicity: 2030

Vietnamese Thai Tay Khome Muong Other










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• In 2030, the population of Vietnam willreach 99.6 million, an increase of 14.5%from 2010. This growth will be mainly

driven by huge increases in the populationaged 54+ years which will expand by118% or 13.8 million inhabitants.

• Nevertheless, Vietnam remains anoverwhelmingly young population asindicated by the hot spots in the chart onthe left. In 2030 Vietnam will have 23.0million 30-44 year olds.

• All age groups of 26 years and under willdecline in size between 2010 and2030, with the sharpest falls being seen inthose aged 14-22 years.

• These trends are being driven by a babyboom in the 1970s and 1980s whichfollowed reunification of the north and

south in 1975. Since then birth and fertilityrates have dropped rapidly and driven theageing process.

Population Past, Present and Future

Vietnam in 2030

Age Structure of the Population at a Glance 1980-2030

(Each dot represents a single-year age group)

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/UN

Note: Reading the chart: This “heat chart” depicts changes in the age

structure of the population over time. Each dot represents the number of

people in a specific (single year) age group in a given year. Accordingly, a

dark red dot shows the largest concentration of people, by age, in a particular

year while deep blue dots refer to the lowest concentrations. The areas of redtherefore represent a large potential market in demographic terms.










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• The rate of growth of the population is decelerating decade by decade. In the 2020s the population is expected toincrease by 6.0% compared to an increase of 24.3% in the 1980s when the population was expanding by more than1 million per year on average.

• The population should surpass the 90 million mark in 2015 and the 100 million mark in the very early 2030s. By thistime the population will have doubled since 1977.

• All age groups of 26 years and under will decline in size between 2010 and 2030. This age group will see a declinein numbers of 5.9 million. The sharpest falls will be felt by those aged 14-22 years – there will be 3.4 million fewerinhabitants of this age range in 2030.

• Population density is nearly double the average for the Asia Pacific region. Much of the population is concentrated inthe Red River Delta (which includes Hanoi) and the Mekong Delta (Ho Chi Minh City).

Population Shift

Vietnam in 2030

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

‘ 0 0 0

Population by Age 2010 and 2030

2010 2030

Those aged 0-26 willfall by 5.9 million in2010-2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

P o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y - p e

r s o n s p e r s q k m

T o t a l p o p u l a t i o n

- ‘ 0 0 0

Total Population and Population Density1980s-2020s

Total populationPopulation density











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• The population of Vietnam is ageing from a low base. In 2010 more than half (52.4%) of the population was agedunder 30. By 2030, this proportion will drop to 40.0%. This trend is caused by a decline in birth rates which is causinga decrease in the number of all those aged 26 and under.

• The median age of the population is expected to be 36.7 years in 2030, compared to 28.4 in 2010.

• The population aged 65+ is growing rapidly. Between 2010 and 2030 it is expected to expand by 125%, compared to14.5% for the overall population. In 2010 there are four 0-14 year olds for every person aged 65+, by 2030 there willbe less than two. At current rates of growth, the 65+ age group will overtake the 0-14s at some point in the 2040s.

• The oldest old (those aged 80+) are expected to increase at a slower pace – 63.8% during this period. In 2030, lifeexpectancy at birth will reach 78.2, an increase of 3.2 years since 2010.

Ageing

Vietnam in 2030

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

1 9 8 0 =

1 0 0

Growth Indices 1980-2030

TotalPopulation aged 65+Population aged 80+

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

‘ 0 0 0

Population Aged 0-14 and 65+1980-2030

Population aged 65+ Population aged 0-14

Those aged 65+ willgrow by a massive 388%in 1980-2030.











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• As the birth rate has fallen the populationpyramid has become more rectangular inshape and will continue to do so.

• The average age of the female population willincrease from 29.7 years in 2010, to 37.6 yearsin 2030. The equivalent figures for men are27.1 and 35.9 years. The median age is firstexpected to surpass 30 in 2011 for women and2018 for men.

• Both men and women aged 15-24 represent

the largest segments in 2010, while in 2030those aged 35-44 will become the largest agesegment. This is a natural result of the ageingprocess.

• Females are expected to outnumber males ineach age group over 44 in 2030, below whichthe reverse is true. Significant differences onlyemerge for those aged 80+. There are 75.7%

more women than men in this age group.However this age segment remains small, sothis equates to only 504,760 more women thanmen and is due to higher female lifeexpectancy.

• Females born in 2010 can expect to outlivemen by 3.9 years. In 2030 this is expected toincrease slightly to 4.2 years. This is due to

healthier lifestyles amongst women.

Men and Women in Vietnam

Vietnam in 2030

Age Pyramid 2010 and 2030











8


• Fertility and birth rates have fallen dramatically. In 1977 the fertility rate was 5.95 children per female, by 2010 it hadfallen to 2.01 and by 2030 it is expected to be 1.85. It first fell below replacement rate in 2009.

• The average age at childbirth is 28.4 years in 2010 and this will remain almost static during the forecastperiod, increasing only to 28.5 years in 2030. This is relatively high for a country of Vietnam’s level of economic

development and is due to the high level of female employment which rivals that of males.

• The birth rate is in keeping with the regional average. The number of births peaked in 1988 at 2.1 million. In 2030there are expected to be just 1.3 million. This is not due to a decline in women of childbearing age – females aged15-49 will actually increase by 55% during this period. Rather it is caused by economic growth, urbanisation andsocial change all combining to encourage women to have smaller families.

• Both the number of deaths and the death rate are expected to increase between 2010 and 2030. This is a result of

the increasing number of older Vietnamese. The main causes of death in 2010 are diseases of the circulatorysystem, followed by cancer. Despite the ageing population the death rate is expected to remain below the high levelsseen before 1985 which were due to the lack of publicly funded healthcare.

Births and Deaths

Vietnam in 2030

29.028.0 28.0

28.4 28.5

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

Y e a r s

Mean Age at Childbirth 1980s-2020s

34.3

25.6

18.5 16.214.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

P e r ‘ 0 0 0

i n h a b i t a n t s

Birth Rates 1980s-2020s











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• Vietnam is overwhelmingly a country of emigration. As one of its anti-poverty tactics the government organisesoverseas employment.

• According to World Bank figures, in 2010 2.2 million Vietnamese lived outside of the country. The most populardestination countries are: the USA, Australia, Canada, Cambodia, Germany, France, South Korea, Japan, the UKand Thailand.

• Brain drain is a huge problem with 27.1% of the population with a higher education emigrating.

• For these reasons remittances are an important contributor to the economy. Migrants sent back US$6.6 billion in2009 which is the equivalent of US$77 per capita. Money sent from urban to rural areas from internal migrants isalso an important source of income.

• Net migration has been falling since 2006 as a result of the strong levels of economic growth being seen in Vietnam.

This growth has created more employment opportunities for young Vietnamese.

• In 2010 the World Bank estimated thatthere were only 69,300 immigrants inVietnam. Almost all were economicmigrants and just over one third ofimmigrants were women.

• Due to these low numbers immigration

has very little impact on generaldemographic trends such as ageing andfalling birth rates.

Diversity

Vietnam in 2030

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

‘ 0 0 0

Net Migration 1980-2030

Net migration











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• Vietnam is an ethnically diverse country with 54 officially recognised ethnic groups.

• The Vietnamese are the largest group accounting for 85.7% of the population in 2010. In 2030 this will remain largelyunchanged at 85.3%. No other group accounts for more than 2% of the total population.

• The Tay are the second largest group with 1.6 million inhabitants in 2010. Most Tay are located in the north of thecountry and are predominantly agricultural.

• In 2020 the Tay will be overtaken by Thais who will become the second largest group with 1.7 millioninhabitants, increasing further to 1.8 million in 2030.

• Vietnamese is also the country’s main

language with 86.0% of the populationspeaking Vietnamese in 2010. In 2030

this will remain largely unchanged at85.6%.

• French is a commonly spoken secondlanguage; particularly amongst olderVietnamese, largely as a result ofVietnam’s colonial past. English is

gaining in popularity however, particularlyamongst the young as the language ofbusiness.


Vietnam in 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2030

% o

f t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n

Population by Ethnicity 2010/2030

Other

Muong

Khome

Tay

Thai

Vietnamese











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• Vietnam remains a predominantly rural country, with only28.8% of inhabitants living in urban areas in 2010. In2030, the majority of Vietnamese will remain rural

dwellers but the proportion of the urban population willhave risen to 41.8%.

• Urbanisation has been proceeding at a rapid, ifdecelerating, pace since its peak in the 1990s. It hasbeen driven by economic development with rural-to-urbanmigrants searching for employment. It is accompanied bysocial change and the demise of the extended family.

• Ho Chi Minh City is Vietnam’s largest city and most

important business centre with a population of 6.2 millionin 2010, or 1-in-4 of the urban population. In 2030, thecity will be home to 11.3 million inhabitants.

• Hanoi, the capital, is the second largest city with apopulation of 2.8 million in 2010, which is expected toexpand to 6.7 million in 2030.

• Hai Phong in the north is set to be Vietnam’s fastest

growing city, with a population of 900,280 in2010, expanding to 2.3 million in 2030. This growth of157% is more than twice the pace of the expansion of theurban population in general. Hai Phong is an importantport and has benefited from the setting up of industrialand export processing zones.

• No cities are declining in size although Hue is expected tosee very little growth between 2010 and 2030.

Cities

Vietnam in 2030

Vietnam’s 10 Biggest Cities

2010/2020/2030

Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics

P l ti d H












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Data

Population by 5-Year Age Group

Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

Female Population by 5-Year Age Group

Vital Statistics


Population by City

© E it I t ti lP l ti d HD t












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Population by 5-Year Age Group

Data

‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 7,755 7,489 7,056 6,936 6,827 6,705 6,368

5-9 9,242 7,715 7,161 6,937 6,854 6,758 6,636

10-14 9,252 9,083 7,649 7,076 6,851 6,777 6,684

15-19 8,277 8,847 8,792 7,534 6,977 6,761 6,700

20-24 7,402 7,644 8,116 8,622 7,419 6,871 6,657

25-29 6,651 6,938 6,855 7,919 8,489 7,300 6,797

30-34 6,214 6,503 6,746 6,693 7,789 8,355 7,135

35-39 5,635 6,210 6,797 6,628 6,570 7,662 8,285

40-44 4,565 5,634 6,498 6,683 6,496 6,453 7,532

45-49 3,320 4,558 5,830 6,367 6,536 6,367 6,307

50-54 2,218 3,308 4,645 5,673 6,192 6,372 6,239

55-59 1,905 2,213 3,268 4,472 5,469 5,986 6,175

60-64 1,729 1,886 2,103 3,095 4,252 5,215 5,721

65-69 1,657 1,662 1,735 1,932 2,863 3,950 4,872

70-74 1,237 1,501 1,449 1,519 1,706 2,546 3,531

75-79 853 1,032 1,197 1,164 1,239 1,406 2,129

80+ 678 920 1,122 1,369 1,483 1,631 1,838

TOTAL 78,592 83,143 87,020 90,618 94,011 97,114 99,607

Median Age 23.2 25.6 28.4 30.2 32.2 34.4 36.7


© E it I t ti lP l ti d HD t












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Male Population by 5-Year Age Group

Data

‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 3,960 3,825 3,631 3,543 3,490 3,429 3,257

5-9 4,715 3,956 3,679 3,564 3,501 3,452 3,392

10-14 4,716 4,673 3,967 3,635 3,518 3,461 3,414

15-19 4,164 4,512 4,594 3,908 3,580 3,469 3,417

20-24 3,712 3,803 4,170 4,501 3,840 3,519 3,412

25-29 3,303 3,437 3,403 4,063 4,423 3,772 3,475

30-34 3,047 3,218 3,333 3,317 3,989 4,347 3,680

35-39 2,765 3,062 3,354 3,268 3,249 3,918 4,306

40-44 2,185 2,779 3,188 3,292 3,198 3,187 3,848

45-49 1,556 2,186 2,848 3,116 3,213 3,129 3,105

50-54 991 1,545 2,177 2,759 3,020 3,122 3,058

55-59 817 987 1,489 2,081 2,646 2,904 3,011

60-64 759 808 927 1,396 1,962 2,503 2,752

65-69 730 723 732 840 1,274 1,798 2,313

70-74 514 644 618 628 727 1,110 1,572

75-79 328 409 501 483 497 581 901

80+ 236 324 407 516 555 590 667

TOTAL 38,497 40,891 43,018 44,909 46,680 48,291 49,579

Median Age 22.2 24.6 27.1 29.0 31.2 33.5 35.9


© E it I t ti lPopulation and HomesData












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Female Population by 5-Year Age Group

Data

‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

0-4 3,795 3,665 3,425 3,393 3,337 3,276 3,112

5-9 4,527 3,759 3,483 3,373 3,353 3,306 3,245

10-14 4,536 4,410 3,682 3,441 3,333 3,316 3,270

15-19 4,113 4,335 4,198 3,627 3,398 3,292 3,283

20-24 3,691 3,841 3,946 4,120 3,579 3,351 3,245

25-29 3,348 3,501 3,452 3,856 4,066 3,528 3,322

30-34 3,168 3,285 3,413 3,377 3,800 4,008 3,454

35-39 2,870 3,148 3,443 3,360 3,321 3,744 3,979

40-44 2,380 2,854 3,310 3,392 3,298 3,267 3,685

45-49 1,764 2,372 2,982 3,251 3,324 3,239 3,202

50-54 1,227 1,763 2,468 2,914 3,172 3,250 3,181

55-59 1,089 1,227 1,780 2,391 2,823 3,081 3,164

60-64 970 1,078 1,176 1,698 2,290 2,712 2,969

65-69 927 940 1,003 1,092 1,589 2,151 2,559

70-74 724 857 831 890 979 1,436 1,958

75-79 525 623 696 681 742 825 1,228

80+ 442 595 715 854 927 1,040 1,172

TOTAL 40,095 42,253 44,002 45,709 47,331 48,823 50,028

Median Age 24.1 26.6 29.7 31.5 33.3 35.4 37.6


© Euromonitor InternationalPopulation and HomesData












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Vital Statistics

Data

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Birth rates 19.9 18.3 17.0 16.0 15.3 14.4 13.4

Live births (‘000) 1,562.3 1,524.9 1,476.9 1,453.3 1,442.2 1,401.1 1,336.5

Fertility rates 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9

Age at childbirth 27.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5

Net migration (‘000) -96.7 -217.9 -144.9 -60.4 -29.7 -19.3 - 20.2

Death rates 5.5 5.8 6.8 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.9

Deaths (‘000) 429.0 479.7 591.6 694.1 755.4 810.9 891.1


Note: Birth and death rates refer to the number per '000 population and fertility rates to the number of children born per female.

Age at childbirth refers to average age of women in years.













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Data

‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Vietnamese 67,700 71,407 74,568 77,516 80,320 82,898 84,974

Thai 1,378 1,489 1,574 1,651 1,722 1,785 1,836

Tay 1,525 1,603 1,641 1,678 1,718 1,758 1,791

Khome 1,091 1,188 1,286 1,374 1,452 1,518 1,571

Muong 1,175 1,243 1,283 1,319 1,357 1,393 1,422

Other 5,723 6,212 6,667 7,079 7,443 7,761 8,013














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Population by City

Data


‘000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ho Chi Minh City 4,368 5,210 6,171 7,264 8,500 9,879 11,341

Hanoi 1,596 2,095 2,795 3,612 4,542 5,586 6,712

Hai Phong 500 651 900 1,195 1,530 1,907 2,315

Da Nang 564 673 797 939 1,099 1,278 1,467

Bien Hoa 453 545 648 766 901 1,054 1,218

Vung Tau 205 245 290 340 398 461 529

Qui Nhon 224 252 281 314 352 393 435

Nha Trang 264 278 295 316 341 371 402

Can Tho 247 257 270 285 305 328 354

Hue 233 226 221 218 218 220 223

Total urban

population19,081 21,956 25,088 28,612 32,581 36,985 41,603

© Euromonitor InternationalPopulation and Homes












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Vietnam in 2030.pdf