Vietnam Country Report(Presentation on the 5th International Coordination Group (ICG) Meeting

GEOSS Asian Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) Section: Climate Change Adaptations)

National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)

Tokyo, 16 Dec 2009Dr.Dang Ngoc Tinh

Climate change inpact to Vietnam

Climate change is one the most significant chalenges facing human beings in the 21st century. Climate change will seriously affect life, production and environment worldwide. Temperature rise and sea level rise may cause floods and salt water intrusion, thus harm agriculture and pose risks to inducstries and socio-economic system in the future.

In Vietnam, over the past 50 years, average temperature has increased about 0.5 - 0.70C, sea level has risen about 20cm. Climate change has made natural disasters, especially typhoons, floods, and droughts more severe.- Under climate change impact, more frequently occur extreme heavy rainfall and severe flood in wet season, but less rainfall and more severe drought in dry season.- Vietnam is one of 11 most impacted countries from the sea level increase 0,75 m in 2100. Then will be 10% population directly affected; about 40.000km2 of coastal zone of Vietnam will be under sea water. It is possible in 2030 sea level increase and almost half of the Mekong Delta will be salty - Period 2010-2020, average temperature in Vietnam will increase 0,3-0,50C, especially in the Northern and West-Northern parts - Number of floods in Vietnam will increase 10-20%.

Historical inundation in Hanoi- In the North, the Northern-Central of

Vietnam from 30 October to 4 November 2008 occurred very heavy rain causing

severe inundation in the Red River Delta - Total rainfall at Ha Dong town is 850mm, from which daily total rainfall is 514mm; at

Hanoi station is 597mm, Nam Dinh: 559mm- The losses estimated in 5300 billiards VND

(3028 millions USD)

The biggest floods on the Red River system in the August and

November 2008

- Floods in the August in the North killed 81 people, 39 people missed, 16 people isured

. - From 31 Oct. to 4 Nov., on the Red River system obseved the biggest flood in the

November in 60-year records.

In the Mekong Delta was several high flood-tide, especialy on 13-16 November and 15

December, at Phu An on SaiGon River was historical tidal peak 1,55m since 1960,

causing serious inundation in Ho Chi Minh city and in the Delta.

From 31 Dec. 2008 to 2 Jan 2009, on rivers in Central and Highland occurred big flood. It is historical flood in the end of December and begining of January

since 1968 and caused big losses

The severe drought in the North in 2009

Climate change adaptations in VietnamRecornigzing potential impact of climate change, the Government of

Vietnam has approved the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. One of the important activities of the Programs is to develop and update climate change scenarios. This is the basis for ministries, sectors and provincies/cities to access climate change impacts, to develop and implement their respective responding action plans.

By the end of the 21st century, average temperature in Vietnam is aspected to increase about 2.30C; total annual rainfall and wet season's rainfall would increase, while dry season's rainfall would decrease; sea level is aspected to rise about 75cm compared to the average for 1980-1999. - Vietnam plans to spend over 1.95 trillion VND for the National Climate Change Adaptation Programme from now till 2015. Around half of the planned budget will be mobilized from foreign sources, according to a report on the climate change adaptation programme.- The State budget will cover 30 percent of the remaining half of the fund and an additional 20 percent will be drawn from local budgets and private economic sectors.

Climate change adaptations

It was reported that the UN will provide Vietnam with around 80 million USD to implement the programme to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD).

Climate change adaptation should be looked upon as community development process, through multi-stakeholder partnership. Community-based climate change approaches are getting recognition as one of the important climate change impact reduction measures.

With a 3,200-kilometre coastline and two of the largest low-lying river deltas in the world, Vietnam tops the world’s developing countries in the risk it faces from climate change. Vietnam is needed on about 520 kilometers of sea dykes and over 320 kilometers of river dykes that are unable to resist flood tides and storms and must spend more than 600 million dollars until 2020 to reinforce and raise sea dykes between central Quang Ngai and southern Kien Giang provinces

Climate change adaptationsVietnam is a low income developing country with low GHG emissions, and

high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. In recent decades, the country has been facing conflicts between environmental degradation and growing socio-economic pressures. Adaptation and mitigation represent two options to respond to climate change.

Training workshop on climate change adaptation, for example, from 11 to 13/5/ 2009 the workshop on climate change research methods and mainstreaming adaptation into development works was organized by Center for social research and development, Vrije Universteit Amsterdam / IVM and Both ENDS in Hue city.

Under the proposal of MONRE, climate-change adaptation and mitigation projects would be piloted in provinces most at risk of sea-level rise – Nam Dinh, Thua Thien Hue, Quang Nam, Ba Ria – Vung Tau and Ben Tre over the next two years. From 2011-2015, the plan will be adopted nationwide.

Under the ministry’s proposal, there should be greater use of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, and hydroelectric power. There should also be greater investment in nuclear energy, the proposal states.The ministry is also aiming to increase the proportion of forest coverage from 37 per cent in 2005 to more than 42 per cent by the end of 2010.

Updated the Huong River Basin Demonstration Project

Joint Vietnam-Japan Workshop on Sustainable Water Management in Hue city, Vietnam, March 9-10, 2009

+ Finished data uploading for period from 2004 to 2008+ Simulated hydrograph for period Oct. 9 – Nov.5, 2008 and forecasted hydrograph for period Aug. 21 – Sep.5, 2009 using distributed model GBHM (Geomorphology-based Hydrological Model – University of Tokyo)and numerical weather forecast by High Resolution Model (HRM, Vietnam):- Made some modification of GBHM in sources code for running from

month to month, read HRM forecasted rainfall input file in ASCII format.+ Request: to include water control structures, especially, reservoirs into GBHM models, because in the Huong River basin there are many operational reservoirs and water control structures.