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Energy Economics Groupgy p
Vienna University of TechnologyVienna University of Technology
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Electric Vehicle related Projects• ELEK‐TRA Project (2008‐2009): Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH
AVL List GmbHHybrid & Electric Vehicles
– Technological AssessmentTechnological Assessment– Ecological Assessment– Economic Assessment– Model‐Based Scenarios of market‐ & fleet penetration
• Vehicle‐to‐Grid Strategies (2010‐2012) AITICT ‐ Vienna University of TechnologySalzburg AG
Interaction of EV an Gridf– Grid Requirements– Load Profiles– Charging Infrastructure– Business Models
• Vehicle‐to‐Grid Interfaces (2010‐2011) ICT ‐ Vienna University of TechnologyCURE
Interfaces for EV use S l b AG– Interfaces for EV use Salzburg AG
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
MARKET‐ AND FLEET‐PENETRATION OFHYBRID AND ELECTRIC CARS IN AUSTRIAMODEL BASED ANALYSIS 2010‐2050MODEL BASED ANALYSIS 2010 2050
Maximilian Kloess
Energy Economics Group – Vienna University ofEnergy Economics Group Vienna University ofTechnology
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Background
Background:• ELEK‐TRA Project 2008/2009: Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH
AVL List GmbH
Hybrid & Electric Vehicles
– Technological Assessment
– Ecological Assessment
– Economic Assessment
– Model‐Based Scenarios of market‐ & fleet penetration
IC ICG IC
ICE
ConventionalDrive
Micro Hybrids Mild Hybrids Full Hybrids Plug‐In‐HybridsPlug‐In‐HybridsSeries dirve Electric vehicle
ICE
Transmissi
Motor
Battery12V
Inverter
CE
TransmM
otor
InverteC
ontrolUnit
CE
Transmission
MotorIN
VC
ontrol Unit
Generator
ICE
Transmissi
Motor
Battery12V
Inverter
CE
Transmis
Motor/
Generator
InverterC
ontrolUnit
clutch
Generator
Invertercontrol
unit
Mo
Batteries
INV
ControlU
nitMon
Tank
mission
Tank
Battery
120Ver
DC
/DC
Battery12V
Tank
Battery
200VV
DC
/DC
Battery12V
on
Tank
y ssion
Tank
Batteries
200V
DC
/DC
Battery12V
Tank
Batteries
200V
otor
Motor
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Methodology• Combination of bottom‐up and top‐down modelling approaches
– Bottom‐up vehicle technology modelB tt fl t d l– Bottom‐up fleet model
– Top down modeling of transport demand and service level– Dynamic cost comparison of propulsion systems and fuels
L it d l h f d i i d lli ( k t h f– Logit‐model approach for consumer decision modelling ( market shares of technologies)
• Input parametersF l i– Fuel prices
– Income level– Costs of technologies (components vehicles)
P li i l f k di i– Political framework conditionsScenarios 2010‐2050– Market‐ and fleet penetration of vehicle technologies– mean vehicle characteristics (mass, power, efficiency)– Energy Consumptions (well‐to‐wheel)– Greenhouse gas emissions (well‐to‐wheel)
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Scheme of the model
Greenhouse GasEmissions
Net costs of vehicles:3 vehicle classes8 propulsion systems
cost of component 1
glob
al
earning
Bottom‐Up‐Fleet ModelVehicle‐Technology ‐Model
Investment costs €/km:
Biofuel Blending Energy Consumption
& Fuel Mix
cost of component n
g le
Specific Service Costs & Determination of Market Shares
Political Framework conditions
•Acquisition costs•Vehicle life time•Interest rate•Kilomtres driven per year
Annual vehicle registration
h l l Overall vehicle stockconditions:•Tax on onwnership•Tax on acquisition•Fuel tax•Subsidies …
Fuel costs €/km:
service cost €/km
Market Shares(logit‐model)
•By vehicle class•By propulsion system
Overall vehicle stock
Fuel costs €/km:•Vehicle efficiency•Net Fuel price•taxation
T D D d M d l
Transport Demand & Service Level:Vehicle registrationsVehicle use (kilometrage)Vehicle characteristics
Diffusion Barriers:•Infrastructure•Availability…
Statistic Parameters:•Fuels•Technologies •Age structure•Distribution of classes
Technology Improvement:•Efficiency of vehicles•Technological learning effects (fuels)
Exogenous Parameters:
Top‐Down‐Demand‐Model
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Vehicle characteristics Distribution of classes•Driving distances•Transport demand figures
•Income•Fossil Fuel Price (Scenarios)
Scenario Settings
Scenario framework conditions:
• Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)
0 14
0,08
0,10
0,12
0,14
Wh
0,02
0,04
0,06€/kW
Gasoline/Diesel CNG Electricity
0,00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Scenario Settings
Scenario framework conditions:
• Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)
• Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc)– Fuel Taxes: gasoline: 0,45€Fuel Taxes: gasoline: 0,45€
diesel: 0,35€
– Tax on acquisition: 0‐16% Policy Scenarios 2010 ‐ 2050
– Tax on ownership: 0 ‐ 1500€
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Scenario Settings
Scenario framework conditions:
• Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)Fossil fuel price development (scenarios)
• Political framework conditions (taxes, subsidies etc)
• Technological Learning of alternative powertrain technologies• Technological Learning of alternative powertrain technologies(key components)
• Fuel supply scenarios:Fuel supply scenarios:– Biofuel blending
– Sources of Electricity
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Scenario SettingsAssumptions for presented results:
• Policy – Business‐as‐usual (BAU)y ( )
• Policy – Active + low fuel price scenario
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Tax On Ownership
Tax on AcquisitionTaxes
Businenss as Usual Policy Active Policy
Engine Power
Fuel Tax
Vehicle T
es
CO2 threshold‐100g/km
Status 2010
Status 2010CO2 threshold‐140g/kmCO2 threshold‐120g/km
Fuel Taxe
Scheme 4Scheme 3
Status 2010Scheme 1Scheme 2
Status 2010 Scheme 1 Scheme 2 Scheme 3 Scheme 4Gasoline € kWh‐1 0.051 0.051 0.05 0.07 0.10Diesel € kWh‐1 0.036 0.036 0.05 0.07 0.10CNG € kWh‐1 0 0.036 0.05 0.07 0.10Electricity € kWh‐1 0 0 0 0 0.02
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Results
Business‐as‐usual (BAU)
Fleet development
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
es
Conventional Drive
Micro‐Hybrids
Mild H b id
Fleet development:
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
vehicle Mild‐Hybrid
Full‐Hybrid
Plug‐In Hybrid
Series Hybrid
EV
‐
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
40Final energy consumption:
20
25
30
35
TWh
Gasoline
Diesel
CNG
Electricity
0
5
10
15
T
LR = 17,5%
LR = 12,5%
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Results
Business‐as‐usual (BAU)60WTW Energy Consumption
30
40
50
Wh
renewable
fossil
WTW – Energy Consumption:
0
10
20
TW LR = 12,5%
LR = 17,5%
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
12 000
14 000 WTW – Greenhouse Gas
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
0t CO2 equ
ivalent
WTT‐Fuel Production
TTW‐Fuel Burning
TTW‐Vehicle Production
LR = 12,5%
Emissions:
0
2 000
4 000 1000
,
LR = 17,5%
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Results
Policy – Active
Fleet development 6.000.000 Fleet development:
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
hicles
Conventional Drive
Micro‐Hybrids
Mild‐Hybrid
2050:70% Electric orPlug‐In Hybrid Cars
‐
1.000.000
2.000.000
3 000 000
veh Full‐Hybrid
Plug‐In Hybrid
Series Hybrid
EV
35
40Final energy consumption:
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20
25
30
35
TWh
Gasoline
Diesel
CNG
Electricity
LR = 17 5%2050:
0
5
10
15 LR = 17,5%
LR = 12,5%2050:50% electricity in the energy supply
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Results
Characteristics of new cars in the two scenarios:
1250
1300
1350
1400
Average mass:
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200kg
BAU Scenario
Policy Scenario
180
200BAU Scenario
Greenhouse gas emissions:
100
120
140
160
g km
‐1
Policy Scenario
Average power:
60
65
70
75
kW BAU Scenario
80
100
50
55
60Policy Scenario
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Results
Policy – Active
WTW Energy Consumption
30
40
50
60
Wh
renewable
fossil
LR = 12,5%
WTW – Energy Consumption:
0
10
20
30
TW
LR = 17,5%
renewable ‐100% RES
2010‐2050:‐50% fossil energy demandwith with 100% renewable electricity
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
14 000 WTW – Greenhouse Gas
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
O2 equ
ivalent
WTT‐Fuel ProductionTTW‐Fuel BurningTTW‐Vehicle ProductionLR= 12 5%
Emissions:
2010‐2050:
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
1000
t CO LR = 12,5%
LR = 17,5%100% RES electricitiy
2010 2050:‐50% with fossil electricity (nat. gas)‐65% with 100% renewable electricity
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
Results
Business‐as‐usual (BAU)6.000.000 Fleet development
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
hicles
Conventional Drive
Micro‐Hybrids
Mild‐Hybrid
Fleet development:
‐
1.000.000
2.000.000
veh Full‐Hybrid
Plug‐In Hybrid
Series Hybrid
EV
Active Policy Scenario2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Fl t d l t 6.000.000Fleet development:
3 000 000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
icles
Conventional Drive
Micro‐Hybrids
Mild‐Hybrid
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
vehi Full‐Hybrid
Plug‐In Hybrid
Series Hybrid
EV
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology
‐
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!
Maximilian KLOESS (Msc)Energy Economics Group – Vienna University of TechnologyEnergy Economics Group – Vienna University of TechnologyGusshausstraße 25‐29, 1040 Wien, +43 (1) 58801 37371 [email protected]@eeg.tuwien.ac.atwww.eeg.tuwien.ac.at
IEA Task Meeting – September 30th KLOESS – Vienna University of Technology