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Video Games
Industry Overview
Moi?
PhD – Games and AI @ NU Humanities/Art Background @ U of C
5 years working with Game Developers Conference International Game Developers Assoc.
Academic Outreach Game Studies Curriculum
Moi, aussi.
Other work: Animate Arts at Northwestern Game Design & Tuning Workshop Experimental Gameplay Workshop AAAI Games Workshops Indie Game Jam Misc. Travel & Conferences
Talk Overview
Industry Background Industry Overview Trends & Highlights Issues & Opportunities Wrapping up
Industry Background
Development Snapshot
1999 3-5 people 12-18 months $100k->$400k Many games had
little marketing $$
2003 20-100+ people 15-30+ months $2million -> $10m+ Any game done will
have real marketing
Publishing Snapshot
Publishers Pay for development Own the IP Market and Sell Move boxes to retail Handle QA and CS Focus test Manage many projects
Developers Build all content Build all technology Large dedicated team Often on milestones Some internal QA
… with many exceptions
Market Snapshot A
Overall ~20 publishers, 700+ development groups ~1200 new titles on PC and Console in ’02 “$12b software sales” in ’02 35% aggregate revenue growth in ’02
Games & Platforms EverQuest: ~400,000 subscribers Game Boy: over 100 million total Sony: 70 million+ shipped consoles by 2003
Market Snapshot B
NOT as big as Hollywood 2002 US domestic game sales: $5.5 billion 2002 US domestic box office: $9.1 billion
2002 US Leisure/Ent. Book Sales: $9.5 billion 2002 US Music Sales: $12.2 billion 2001 NAB/TVB US ad revenue: $54.4 billion
We are still a niche medium 2002 US domestic games units: 162.7 million 2992 US domestic movie tix: 1.9 BILLION
Lots to figure out!
Competing visions about what is happening, and why.
Big picture thinking is hazy.
Generally reactive, not proactive
Industry Overview
Hot topics?
Publishers Managing Risk “Mass Market” Penetration Innovation and Technology Mobile and Social gaming
The current “vibe”
Conservative Times Projects: larger and more expensive New Technology: threatens stability
of established development practices Evaluation: What makes a game
successful?
Projects
Platform Choice Team Size/Capabilities Genre/Market Original IP or Sequel
How to Differentiate?
Technology
New or Leveraged Original or Licensed Network/Community requirements Which bangs and whistles
Long-term strategies and goals?
Evaluation
Who is buying? Why? What? Who are we ignoring?
How can we grow our market?
Trends & Highlights
Quality is up!
Everything looks pretty spectacular PC games are still selling Online = on line! Interesting console games get press
Katamari Damacy!
New Ideas Emerging
Selling stuff Steam Online Console
Making stuff Content Creation
Design Episodic games Simulation and procedural animation
Good news?
Despite glitches, games are selling. Particularly:
Racing games Sports games Shooters (WWII & SciFi) Sims
Bad news?
Christmas Crunch Which to buy? How many to buy? When to buy?
Top 10 titles more competitive Good or bad...
... depending on who you are
Issues & Opportunities
A friend of mine says...
Kim Pallister (Intel) CES 2005 Same basic points! Summary follows...
Biz Stuff
Consolidation Collapse of vertical model Expanded “channels”, increased
market share Geoffrey Moore's “Crossing the
Chasm” and “Inside the Tornado”
Parallelism
Already happening multi-threading streaming architectures Xbox2,PS3, PC: converging on a hybrid
PC's already there (CPU + GPU). “this will be the most challenging
transition facing the game development community since the move from 2D to 3D.”
Mobile Games
What is a “mobile game”? Platform strengths Limitations New audiences New “verbs” or “memes”?
Asia
300M+ broadband over 4-5 years. not just a new segment –
“potentially THE BIGGEST SEGMENT of players so far”
Huge impact on all fronts
Beyond Graphics
“Great Game Graphics – Who Cares?”
Physics and Simulation Puppets -> Actors
I’ve been noticing...
GameTech 2004 Tech directors, graphics folks Common issues and strategies Issues anyone can learn from
Innovation = expensive
Tool chains Design Communication Management
Research = expensive
Small games, small audiences Marketing and sales What a flop teaches us
Tomb Raider: AOD Prince of Persia I and II
Simple things
Animation blending Agent Coordination Application of simple models
Lanchester’s law Planning
Players become producers
Player communities and mods Asia and Outsourcing Game studies and Game Design ??
Diversity = key
New ideas Better ears Better eyes
Quality of Life
Wrapping up
Lots of hard problems
Biz: Long-term vision needed Marketing: Plenty of room to grow Startup: DIY hard, but still possible Design: Innovation will be key Mgmt: increasingly important
